# SDC experts predict Uber will start using self-driving cars between 2020-2023



## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

http://www.recode.net/2016/5/16/11635628/self-driving-autonomous-cars-timeline

See link for entire story and timeline.

Self-driving cars are coming - sooner than you think. But when will we get there, and how will we get there?

Two terms for the transition have become standard in the auto industry. There's the "evolutionary" path to autonomous vehicles, where today's cars get self-driving features bit by bit - Tesla's autopilot feature, for example. And then there's the "revolutionary" path. That's where totally self-driving cars, like the ones Google is working on, start as test vehicles and become more mainstream as they can drive in more places.

There's an ongoing debate over which path is the safer one. But these paths will eventually converge.

Based on interviews with people from all over the autonomous technology scene, we've laid out a roadmap of what needs to happen - from both a technological perspective and a regulatory/legal one - before fully autonomous cars are widespread. Experts don't all agree on the exact sequence, so we've pulled together the most cohesive - yet still tentative - timeline to the future of transportation.

Thanks to the industry executives and experts we spoke to: Nauto founder Stefan Heck; Mobileye co-founder and CTO Professor Amnon Shashua; Driversiti founder and CEO Sascha Simon; Volvo senior technical leader for safety and driver support technologies Erik Coelingh; Mercedes head of autonomous driving in North America Axel Gern; NXPSemiconductors executive vice president Kurt Sievers; HNTB Corporation national practice leader for intelligent transportation systems Jim Barbaresso; MapR data scientist Onkar Ambekar and vice president of technology strategy Crystal Valentine; and Peloton co-founder and vice president of external affairs Steve Boyd and public policy lead Jonny Morris.


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## ChortlingCrison (Mar 30, 2016)

Thanks for the info on self driving cars. I needed a good chortling.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

What exactly do they think people are going to do for a living?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> What exactly do they think people are going to do for a living?


Change careers, just like always. When one door shuts, another opens.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

ChortlingCrison said:


> Thanks for the info on self driving cars. I needed a good chortling.


You're welcome. I'm glad you enjoyed it.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Change careers, just like always. When one door shuts, another opens.


It does? No it doesn't. If you can't even drive for a living, it's all being automated. Game over I'm out of this shit planet already.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> It does? No it doesn't. If you can't even drive for a living, it's all being automated. Game over I'm out of this shit planet already.


What did the guy who shoed horses do when the Model T took over? The typewriter repair man when computers came around? The telegraph operator when the phone took over the market?

People need to stop fearing change. It's inevitable and unstoppable. And no, technology doesn't cause mass waves of unemployment, it makes things easier to do and cheaper.

Yes, a robot can displace a welder, but now welded products are cheaper. The other side of the coin is we get to live at the same or better standard of living at a lower cost of living. When you no longer need a car, you need less income to remain where you are. The more the world automates, the cheaper everything becomes, the less you have to spend your life grinding out a paycheck to live the same.

If your highest aspiration is to drive a car, you have bigger issues.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> What did the guy who shoed horses do when the Model T took over? The typewriter repair man when computers came around? The telegraph operator when the phone took over the market?
> 
> People need to stop fearing change. It's inevitable and unstoppable. And no, technology doesn't cause mass waves of unemployment, it makes things easier to do and cheaper.
> 
> ...


This is entirely different, they're automating the entire transportation industry. They're automating things like journalism. You take away all the driving jobs, you have a major employment problem. This isn't a guy who shoed horses learning how to change tires. They're getting rid of all of the jobs.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> This is entirely different, they're automating the entire transportation industry. They're automating things like journalism. You take away all the driving jobs, you have a major employment problem.


So said every impacted person in every technological change. Never happens.

We are human, we adapt, life gets easier, then we laugh at how things used to be.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> So said every impacted person in every technological change. Never happens.
> 
> We are human, we adapt, life gets easier, then we laugh at how things used to be.


There are degrees of change, being philosophical is meaningless. Take away all of the driving jobs at the pace they're shooting for and it will be a major problem for non-Billionaires.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> There are degrees of change, being philosophical is meaningless. Take away all of the driving jobs at the pace they're shooting for and it will be a major problem for non-Billionaires.


Not if they aren't in denial and are preparing themselves. I'm not being philosophical, I'm being historical. These assumptions never prove to be true. There will be jobs to be had, the new market will create new jobs, it's on you to be ready. If people don't, if they rely on resistance or denial, they will be screwed, but that's their choice.

Self driving is coming. It's coming soon. The lives it will save are well worth the change and no job is worth killing 1.2 million people a year. It will lower costs of everything. Absolutely everything. Plan or fail. It's not a secret.


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## UbieWarrior (Apr 15, 2015)

Key word there is "start" meaning they likely only have test vehicles by then. Too many odd/narrow roads no lane markings it's going to be a challenge to get it to work. It's likely to first start off on the highways with buses and long haul trucks.

Nobody has talked about it much yet but self driving airlines could be also in the cards. Airlines are sick of the unions and the recent suicide pilots makes self-driving planes safer. Airplanes can already pretty much fly themselves now it a small step to take pilots completely out of the loop.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

UbieWarrior said:


> Key word there is "start" meaning they likely only have test vehicles by then. Too many odd/narrow roads no lane markings it's going to be a challenge to get it to work. It's likely to first start off on the highways with buses and long haul trucks.
> 
> Nobody has talked about it yet but self driving airlines could be also in the cards. Airlines are sick of the unions and the recent suicide pilots makes self-driving planes safer. Airplanes can already pretty much fly themselves now it a small step to take pilots completely out of the loop.


Every aspect of humans makes self piloted planes safer, if done well. Humans are the number one cause of airline crashes. It's not even close to mechanical failure. Same with cars.

No, they will likely not start on highways but on slow speed urban roads where the market is best. They have no issue dealing with the topography of Urban roads already. Millions of Urban miles, billions of simulator miles, no accidents caused by SDCs and they get better by the hour.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Not if they aren't in denial and are preparing themselves. I'm not being philosophical, I'm being historical. These assumptions never prove to be true. There will be jobs to be had, the new market will create new jobs, it's on you to be ready. If people don't, if they rely on resistance or denial, they will be screwed, but that's their choice.
> 
> Self driving is coming. It's coming soon. The lives it will save are well worth the change and no job is worth killing 1.2 million people a year. It will lower costs of everything. Absolutely everything. Plan or fail. It's not a secret.


You live in fantasyland. Good luck.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> You live in fantasyland. Good luck.


Thank you for the empty kindness and senseless reply to my points. The world needs more of that.

I'll let the families of the 1.2 million people who die this year know you wanted their loved ones to die so you can have a skilless job and not have to try. Can you even fathom how many gravediggers SDCs will put out of work?! The INHUMANITY!


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> Direct your outrage at the inhuman corporations where it belongs.


We should all be fighting for the gravediggers that will be out of work from SDCs. Solidarity brother.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> Direct your outrage at the inhuman corporations where it belongs.


I'm glad to hear you're giving up on corporations! No more computers, internet, electricity, jobs, medicine, insurance, cars, houses, food...

...it's going to be great!


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> I'm glad to hear you're giving up on corporations! No more computers, internet, electricity, jobs, medicine, insurance, cars, houses, food...
> 
> ...it's going to be great!


I object to specific corporations which are bent on the rapid elimination of way too many jobs through automation. Uber, Lyft, and GM being among them. Buy a clue.


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## TASKMASTER2K (May 14, 2016)

Autonomous Cars are here and will grow but i dont think it will make financial sense for Uber/Lyft to switch over to all robot fleat. I think we all saw what happen in the Terminator movies.


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## UbieWarrior (Apr 15, 2015)

Telsa just recently had one of its car auto summon itself to the back of a parked semi truck so the tech isn't perfect and never can be 100%.

Uber will be forced to switched too all self-driving fleet before a competitor beats them to it.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

So the story says that people in the self driving car industry think this is going to happen soon.

I'm sure they're not biased at all.

Self driving cars are a decade away, if not more.


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## Brooklyn (Jul 29, 2014)

See.. the things I don't get is.. they think thousands of self driving vehicles will be completely safe and fine.. but we still need train conductors? not to knock train conductors.. I just don't understand how we haven't been able to automate that but are able to automate cars?


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

And selfdriving cars will then stop as soon as someone dies from a malfunctioning car or the continuous inconvenience of the cars not being able to navigate through a cone zone.


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## Jav (Nov 29, 2014)

Cell phones are still buggy as hell and we really think self driving cars are going to be a thing some time soon? People are nucking futs. 

Self driving cars are going to be a disaster! Imagine getting into a self driving car with puke all in it. Imagine getting into one with cum all thrown about because they are used by prostitutes as cheap moving hotel rooms. Imagine the vandalism you see in regular cabs multiplied by a 1000 since these cars will have no actual supervision...this is not a well thought out plan. These will encounter problems we have not even begun to think about!

Also, if self driving cars are a thing, uber would lose a huge percentage of business that uses uber to go out drinking. If their car can self drive, why would they ever call an uber to get into an abused ragged out POS since their car can do the exact same thing?

Again, my computer still crashes more often than I would like and we've been using them for decades...cant imagine the trouble a self driving car would have. Anyone thinking this is around the corner is an utter fool.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

I think autonomous cars will work only if all cars are autonomous and interconnected into a network. A few autonomous cars trying to deal with all the chaotic variables of the real world is an experiment doomed to failure.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Jav said:


> Cell phones are still buggy as hell and we really think self driving cars are going to be a thing some time soon? People are nucking futs.
> 
> Self driving cars are going to be a disaster! Imagine getting into a self driving car with puke all in it. Imagine getting into one with cum all thrown about because they are used by prostitutes as cheap moving hotel rooms. Imagine the vandalism you see in regular cabs multiplied by a 1000 since these cars will have no actual supervision...this is not a well thought out plan. These will encounter problems we have not even begun to think about!
> 
> ...


They will need fiberglass seats like carnival rides,and rubber floors with drain holes.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> And selfdriving cars will then stop as soon as someone dies from a malfunctioning car or the continuous inconvenience of the cars not being able to navigate through a cone zone.


Uber navigation told me to turn left on an interstate overpass doing 70 mph.
It would have been at least a 50 foot plunge to the ground.

Self driving cars don't question or argue . . .


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Self driving vaccums can't even avoid problems !


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

Food for thought...

Last week, I was caught up in a traffic jam during a torrential downpour behind a major accident. The accident blocked the five travel lanes and only the exit only lane on the right was open. All the traffic was having to merge to the exit only lane, then once past the accident, leave the exit only lane to return to the travel lanes.

How would an autonomous car handle this? How would it identify the accident, know how to negotiate and merge with five lanes of traffic into a lane it's routing software would indicate was an invalid route, then return to the travel lanes?

That's just one example of the myriad of issues an autonomous car would face in traffic.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

tohunt4me said:


> Uber navigation told me to turn left on an interstate overpass doing 70 mph.
> It would have been at least a 50 foot plunge to the ground.
> 
> Self driving cars don't question or argue . . .


Yep. I had a ping that happened to be at a restaurant under a highway overpass. Google maps sent me to the overpass and said I had arrived...


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> Food for thought...
> 
> Last week, I was caught up in a traffic jam during a torrential downpour behind a major accident. The accident blocked the five travel lanes and only the exit only lane on the right was open. All the traffic was having to merge to the exit only lane, then once past the accident, leave the exit only lane to return to the travel lanes.
> 
> ...


A few months ago,hundreds of cars turned around on I-10,went up the one way,and drove down an entrance ramp because police did not clear a lane for backed up traffic.
Will the self driving car disobey traffic patterns for its own good ?

Will it discern the need to ?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

UbieWarrior said:


> Telsa just recently had one of its car auto summon itself to the back of a parked semi truck so the tech isn't perfect and never can be 100%.
> 
> Uber will be forced to switched too all self-driving fleet before a competitor beats them to it.


Which was the owner's responsibility. Yes, they will never be 100%.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> So the story says that people in the self driving car industry think this is going to happen soon.
> 
> I'm sure they're not biased at all.
> 
> Self driving cars are a decade away, if not more.


Self driving is already on the road carrying pax in the Netherlands, so I think you missed in your prediction by about 10 years.

There's zero chance self driving isn't a reality in the US by 2020. Not everywhere, not common outside of Urban areas perhaps, but it will be on the roads being used. This is a multi-trillion dollar gold rush and every major technology and auto corporation is in on it.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Brooklyn said:


> See.. the things I don't get is.. they think thousands of self driving vehicles will be completely safe and fine.. but we still need train conductors? not to knock train conductors.. I just don't understand how we haven't been able to automate that but are able to automate cars?


Follow the money. SDTs would be a major expense for train companies and governments. SDCs are a multi-trillion dollar market waiting to be tapped.

Also, the train and plane deaths combined aren't even in the ballpark of car deaths.

Trains and planes could both be automated if there were a driving force to do that and, eventually, they will be.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> And selfdriving cars will then stop as soon as someone dies from a malfunctioning car or the continuous inconvenience of the cars not being able to navigate through a cone zone.


They can easily navigate through a "cone zone." I don't know why people think they can't do things they have done millions of times already. They have limitations at this point, but they won't in a short time.

Did cars disappear because of deaths? Planes? Trains?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Jav said:


> Cell phones are still buggy as hell and we really think self driving cars are going to be a thing some time soon? People are nucking futs.
> 
> Self driving cars are going to be a disaster! Imagine getting into a self driving car with puke all in it. Imagine getting into one with cum all thrown about because they are used by prostitutes as cheap moving hotel rooms. Imagine the vandalism you see in regular cabs multiplied by a 1000 since these cars will have no actual supervision...this is not a well thought out plan. These will encounter problems we have not even begun to think about!
> 
> ...


You're right, it's not around the corner, they are already in operation and on the streets in the Netherlands.

Comparing this technology with a phone or home PC is missing the mark by quite a lot. These are likely going to be 60 times more powerful than an i7, if not more, and not reliant on Microsoft's buggy OS to operate.

All of the roadblocks you've thrown up are easily addressed. People who damage property, will pay for that property, just like everything else in life.

Uber, by the way, just put their first SDC on the road for testing. Why would anyone use them? Because it will be far far cheaper than car ownership in Urban areas. SDCs probably won't be common privately owned for some time. They'll be expensive at first and most people aren't ready to take that trust plunge.

This is why GM dropped $500M on Lyft. The Auto companies are getting into the TNC game.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> I think autonomous cars will work only if all cars are autonomous and interconnected into a network. A few autonomous cars trying to deal with all the chaotic variables of the real world is an experiment doomed to failure.


They already do deal with human drivers. Millions of miles dealing with human drivers, red light runners, bikes, kids playing frogger in front of it, a woman in an electric wheelchair chasing a duck, etc.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

tohunt4me said:


> They will need fiberglass seats like carnival rides,and rubber floors with drain holes.


Na, regular cushioned seats but, yes, the covering would be best if it was cleanable in a wet automated system. Just regular everyday use will mean a lot of cleaning.

Being an enclosed system for the passenger compartment, they could probably build a self cleaning element into the car itself or a full automatic interior and exterior car wash they drive to.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

tohunt4me said:


> Uber navigation told me to turn left on an interstate overpass doing 70 mph.
> It would have been at least a 50 foot plunge to the ground.
> 
> Self driving cars don't question or argue . . .


Self driving cars don't rely on GPS for navigation decision making. They make those decisions themselves.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> Food for thought...
> 
> Last week, I was caught up in a traffic jam during a torrential downpour behind a major accident. The accident blocked the five travel lanes and only the exit only lane on the right was open. All the traffic was having to merge to the exit only lane, then once past the accident, leave the exit only lane to return to the travel lanes.
> 
> ...


The same way you do. Senses. Only theirs are far superior and look in 360 degrees constantly.

The Google car, for example, knows what emergency lights are and can read hand signals from a cop. It can make trillions of observations and decisions a second. But, yes, new situations need to be dealt with, and that's why they are doing millions of miles of testing and hundreds of millions of simulator testing using real world data from situations like you describe.

What SDCs have that we don't is once a single car traverses the accident area, every other car can know instantly to avoid that area and how to get through it if needed.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

tohunt4me said:


> A few months ago,hundreds of cars turned around on I-10,went up the one way,and drove down an entrance ramp because police did not clear a lane for backed up traffic.
> Will the self driving car disobey traffic patterns for its own good ?
> 
> Will it discern the need to ?


That's a good one. Traffic patterns? I don't know. Will it break laws and rules of the road? Yes, it will, when it can safely do so and it's required.

I would like to ask this one if I ever get a chance. My guess is if it was in a safe place, it probably wouldn't unless directed to by the police.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> They already do deal with human drivers. Millions of miles dealing with human drivers, red light runners, bikes, kids playing frogger in front of it, a woman in an electric wheelchair chasing a duck, etc.


But all the test miles driven have been done with a human backup driver in the passenger seat with a full set of controls.


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## Just Another Uber Drive (Jul 15, 2015)

No worries if you get hit by a self-driving car... you'll just stick to the hood!

http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/19/11711738/google-self-driving-cars-patent-sticky-flypaper


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> What exactly do they think people are going to do for a living?


Can you make a Latte?


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

Cherry picking from Wikipedia...

"Google also announced its prototype vehicles were being road tested in Mountain View, California. During testing, the prototypes' speed will not exceed 25 mph (40 km/h) and will have safety drivers aboard the entire time. As a consequence, one of the vehicles was stopped by police for impeding traffic flow"

"
*Crashes*
On February 14, 2016 a Google self-driving car attempted to avoid sandbags blocking its path. During the maneuver it struck a bus. Google addressed the crash, saying "In this case, we clearly bear some responsibility, because if our car hadn't moved there wouldn't have been a collision." Some incomplete video footage of the crash is available. Google characterized the crash as a misunderstanding and a learning experience. The company also stated "This type of misunderstanding happens between human drivers on the road every day."

As of July 2015, Google's 23 self-driving cars have been involved in 14 minor collisions on public roads, but Google maintains that in all cases the vehicle itself was not at fault because the cars were either being manually driven or the driver of another vehicle was at fault.

In June 2015, Google founder Sergey Brin confirmed that there had been 12 collisions as of that date, eight of which involved being rear-ended at a stop sign or traffic light, two in which the vehicle was side-swiped by another driver, one of which involved another driver rolling through a stop sign, and one where a Google employee was manually driving the car. In July 2015, three Google employees suffered minor injuries when the self-driving car they were riding in was rear-ended by a car whose driver failed to brake at a traffic light. This was the first time that a self-driving car collision resulted in injuries.

Additionally, Google maintains monthly reports that include any traffic incidents that their self-driving cars have been involved in.

Google is required by the Californian DMV to report the number of incidents during testing where the human driver took control. Some of these incidents are not reported by Google when simulations indicate the car should have coped on its own. There is some controversy concerning this distinction between driver-initiated disengagements that Google reports and those that it does not report.

*Limitations*
As of August 28, 2014 the latest prototype has not been tested in heavy rain or snow due to safety concerns. Because the cars rely primarily on pre-programmed route data, they do not obey temporary traffic lights and, in some situations, revert to a slower "extra cautious" mode in complex unmapped intersections. The vehicle has difficulty identifying when objects, such as trash and light debris, are harmless, causing the vehicle to veer unnecessarily. Additionally, the lidar technology cannot spot some potholes or discern when humans, such as a police officer, are signaling the car to stop. Google projects having these issues fixed by 2020


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## Jav (Nov 29, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> You're right, it's not around the corner, they are already in operation and on the streets in the Netherlands.
> 
> Comparing this technology with a phone or home PC is missing the mark by quite a lot. These are likely going to be 60 times more powerful than an i7, if not more, and not reliant on Microsoft's buggy OS to operate.
> 
> ...


Uhm, they are being *tested *and have *drivers *behind the wheel with their hands on the *wheel*.

http://www.nltimes.nl/2016/03/16/fifty-self-driving-cars-to-test-on-netherlands-highway-today/

Not sure where you got your information, but you have either been misinformed or you are intentionally being manipulative by using the word "operation" in your response.

Oh and heres one more for you. These cars will be connected to the Internet. Its only a matter of time before someone takes control of one or a fleet of them and have them all drive off a cliff for $hits and giggles. Fun times.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> But all the test miles driven have been done with a human backup driver in the passenger seat with a full set of controls.


Yes, of course, what's that change about them self driving?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> Cherry picking from Wikipedia...
> 
> "Google also announced its prototype vehicles were being road tested in Mountain View, California. During testing, the prototypes' speed will not exceed 25 mph (40 km/h) and will have safety drivers aboard the entire time. As a consequence, one of the vehicles was stopped by police for impeding traffic flow"
> 
> ...


Yes, millions of miles, one misunderstanding (the car had right of way), and improving every day. They aren't on schedule, they're way ahead of it, and they probably won't be the first in the US.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Jav said:


> Uhm, they are being *tested *and have *drivers *behind the wheel with their hands on the *wheel*.
> 
> http://www.nltimes.nl/2016/03/16/fifty-self-driving-cars-to-test-on-netherlands-highway-today/
> 
> ...


Nope, not those, the WePod. Zero driver controls, zero drivers, not sure where you got your information, but you have either been misinformed or you are intentionally being manipulative.


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## Jav (Nov 29, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Nope, not those, the WePod. Zero driver controls, zero drivers, not sure where you got your information, but you have either been misinformed or you are intentionally being manipulative.


You know exactly where I got my info, I provided the link.

Here's another link for you: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/02/01/wepod-driverless-car-traffic/

WEpod will drive at a *maximum *speed of 25 kilometers an hour( 15 mph for yanks).

Those wepods sure are sexy and at those speeds, we may just dump our bicycles.


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## Potsy (Sep 10, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> What exactly do they think people are going to do for a living?


Who cares? Uber doesn't care the government doesn't care nobody cares?
Put solar panels on your roof and grow a veggie garden with your spare time.


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## MoneyUber4 (Dec 9, 2014)

http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/no-more-drivers-uber-testing-self-driving-car-pittsburgh-n577041

http://fortune.com/2016/05/19/uber-self-driving-car-pittsburgh/


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

Yesterday I saw three Google SDCs on the freeway. They were all in the slow lane doing the speed limit. That's a good way to get run over around here.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Jav said:


> You know exactly where I got my info, I provided the link.
> 
> Here's another link for you: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/02/01/wepod-driverless-car-traffic/
> 
> ...


Your info was irrelevant to the discussion and did nothing to achieve your aim of proving my statement wrong, as intended.

Yes, they are being limited in speed and area in the rollout. Did you expect they wouldn't be? I didn't and never said otherwise.

Nevertheless, they are driverless and on the public roads meaning the starting line has already been crossed. There are, in fact, driverless SDCs already on the roads and in use. Your insinuations against my character will never change that. I stated a fact and it was proven true.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> Yesterday I saw three Google SDCs on the freeway. They were all in the slow lane doing the speed limit. That's a good way to get run over around here.


And a good reason to get rid of human drivers.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> And a good reason to get rid of human drivers.


Imagine how much nicer the world would be if we got rid of humans entirely.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> Imagine how much nicer the world would be if we got rid of humans entirely.


Technology isn't anti-human. It makes our lives easier, safer, and lowers the cost of living. I'll keep the 1.2 million lives lost over an extra money gig every time. Taxi driving is already a lost cause, it's just a matter of time.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> http://www.recode.net/2016/5/16/11635628/self-driving-autonomous-cars-timeline
> 
> See link for entire story and timeline.
> 
> ...


Yeah they are coming, but there is one small detail, they forgot to ask people if they want them.

This is why you don't see to many robots serving drinks, but a few restaurants are automated, like, maybe in japan where weirdness reigns  ( search YouTube for weird japanese videos, and you'll know what I'm talkin' about ).


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> Yeah they are coming, but there is one small detail, they forgot to ask people if they want them.
> 
> This is why you don't see to many robots serving drinks, but a few restaurants are automated, like, maybe in japan where weirdness reigns  ( search YouTube for weird japanese videos, and you'll know what I'm talkin' about ).


No, they didn't forget. People have been polled many times. About 25% will definitely use them and about the same amount say definitely not. The rest are undecided. 25% is far more than needed to introduce them.

Comparing a bartender to a machine that kills 1.2 million people a year isn't a logical comparison.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> No, they didn't forget. People have been polled many times. About 25% will definitely use them and about the same amount say definitely not. The rest are undecided. 25% is far more than needed to introduce them.
> 
> Comparing a bartender to a machine that kills 1.2 million people a year isn't a logical comparison.


How many jobs do you destroy with autonomous cars.

There are many ways to kill a person, some are slower than others.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> How many jobs do you destroy with autonomous cars.
> 
> There are many ways to kill a person, some are slower than others.


Drivers have more than enough time to adjust. They can go get a bachelor's degree before they are even in danger. This is a free nation, not a socialist nation, and we shouldn't killing people for a gig.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Drivers have more than enough time to adjust. They can go get a bachelor's degree before they are even in danger. This is a free nation, not a socialist nation, and we shouldn't killing people for a gig.


Oh, ok. So the market suddenly handle and/or create (3-5 years is sudden) all of these additional Degree jobs which will have to take the place of tens of Millions of transportation jobs.

In what alternative Universe.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> No, they didn't forget. People have been polled many times. About 25% will definitely use them and about the same amount say definitely not. The rest are undecided. 25% is far more than needed to introduce them.
> 
> Comparing a bartender to a machine that kills 1.2 million people a year isn't a logical comparison.


Drunk drivers, aided by bartenders, kill far more people than sober drivers, just guessing though

but, I'm not blaming bartenders. However, bars have been sued by victims of drunk drivers.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> Oh, ok. So the market suddenly handle and/or create (3-5 years is sudden) all of these additional Degree jobs which will have to take the place of tens of Millions of transportation jobs.
> 
> In what alternative Universe.


No alternate nessecary. This one will do. The US has to import people to be engineers. The jobs are there for the taking.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Drivers have more than enough time to adjust. They can go get a bachelor's degree before they are even in danger. This is a free nation, not a socialist nation, and we shouldn't killing people for a gig.


The only people "killing people for a gig" are murder-for-hire people, i.e., hit men. USA is a semi-socialist nation as are most nations, to varying degrees.

College isn't for everyone, but some vocational training should be for those who dont' want to or can't go to college.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> Drunk drivers, aided by bartenders, kill far more people than sober drivers, just guessing though but, I'm not blaming bartenders. However, bars have been sued by victims of drunk drivers.


...and yet we still have bars.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> Oh, ok. So the market suddenly handle and/or create (3-5 years is sudden) all of these additional Degree jobs which will have to take the place of tens of Millions of transportation jobs.
> 
> In what alternative Universe.


If they go into technology, yep. The US is IMPORTING people to fill the jobs.


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> If they go into technology, yep. The US is IMPORTING people to fill the jobs.


The US is 'importing' low paid foreign worker visa workers to replace American workers. Get your facts straight.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Hackenstein said:


> The US is 'importing' low paid foreign worker visa workers to replace American workers. Get your facts straight.


Nope. High paying high tech jobs because we don't have enough. Get your facts straight.

http://m.townhall.com/columnists/helenraleigh/2015/09/05/the-truth-of-the-h1b-visa-n2048326


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## Hackenstein (Dec 16, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Nope. High paying high tech jobs because we don't have enough. Get your facts straight.
> 
> http://m.townhall.com/columnists/helenraleigh/2015/09/05/the-truth-of-the-h1b-visa-n2048326


Nonsense. US workers are being forced to train their lower paid foreign replacements in multiple industries. Google and Facebook have a bad habit of importing cheap labor.

Eliminate all of the driving jobs and you have a very serious problem in the US.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

Remember Disney fired all of their IT workers and outsourced their IT to an Indian company who brought in workers on tech Visas. The Indian company pays them as contractors at Indian wage scales.

Edit to add... and as the previous poster mentioned, the workers being laid off had to train the imported workers.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> Remember Disney fired all of their IT workers and outsourced their IT to an Indian company who brought in workers on tech Visas. The Indian company pays them as contractors at Indian wage scales.
> 
> Edit to add... and as the previous poster mentioned, the workers being laid off had to train the imported workers.


A few instances means nothing. There is a technology education shortage in the US.


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## Another Uber Driver (May 27, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Taxi driving is already a lost cause, it's just a matter of time.


Blanket, false statement made by someone who is blinded by his hate for cab drivers and the cab business.

On topic, though:

There are fifty cars in Holland according to a _*Netherlands Times*_ article dated 16 March of this year. They must have humans with their hands on the wheel at all times, for now, at least.

According to the _*Telegraph*_, in an article dated 28 January of this year, the busses travel at 25 KpH and run only in the daytime and not under adverse weather conditions, for now, at least.

Original Poster may be a bit "optimistic" on his 2020 date, but 2023 is not unrealistic for their being in everyday use, in this country, even if it is limited. By 2029, they certainly could be in unrestricted (or barely restricted) everyday use.

I would suspect that the TNCs would have to inform the customer before it sent a driverless car and allow him to decline it. at the outset, at least. Many will decline it, at first. At some point, people will accept them, generally, assuming that they can prove safer than motor vehicles operated by a human being. In fact, while it will not happen in my lifetime, I can see some governments' actually banning human operated vehicles or requiring a highly restricted licence to operate them.

Do remember that in some cities in the early 1900s, human driven cars had to have a flagman that preceded them. That disappeared when? 1914?

I do not trust them, but I am only one old guy. If the cars prove safe, statistically, people will trust them.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

Another Uber Driver said:


> Blanket, false statement made by someone who is blinded by his hate for cab drivers and the cab business.
> 
> On topic, though:
> 
> ...


I watched some YouTube videos of the new Tesla last night, and had a pax today who test drove one. My opinion of the time frame of how soon SDCs are coming has moved up. I still foresee a lot of problems and think the only practical method will involve networking SDCs into some sort of master control system to keep things from getting kinked up.


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## Another Uber Driver (May 27, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> I still foresee a lot of problems and think the only practical method will involve networking SDCs into some sort of master control system to keep things from getting kinked up.


Implementing something like that would not surprise me---at the outset, at least. If nothing else, the Regulators or Politicians might require a centralised monitoring system. Once their safety has been demonstrated, I would suspect that the governments would let go of it.

I do, however, suspect that there will be a demand for drivers for some time to come. Johnny Cab, or whatever it was in that Governator movie will come, and, will find users, but it will not put drivers out of work as quickly as some think. To hear the "experts" tell it; those same experts with all of their studies, statistics, polls and figures; I should have parked the cab back in 2012, or 2013, at the latest, and only been driving UberX. Funny, I drive UberX/Lyft only enough to stay in the game and drive the cab more, with Uber's HELP, in fact (Uber Taxi, which they do not have anywhere in Tejas).

But then, you must remember that bees can not fly. This is what science and mathematics tell you. Funny, someone forgot to tell those bees that keep stinging people.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Another Uber Driver said:


> Blanket, false statement made by someone who is blinded by his hate for cab drivers and the cab business.
> 
> On topic, though:
> 
> ...


Cabs, as they exist, are dead men walking. When every major tech, auto, and TNC company in the world get in the SDC TNC business, it's all over but the cab company bankruptcies. Maybe a few will make the switch, but I doubt it.

The young are by far the biggest TNC market. They aren't scared of technology. They will be fighting over getting driverless rides. Hell, they'll ride just to snapchat it to their friends. With even lower prices, they'll ride even more.

Autos and auto laws and the slowness they were adapted is meaningless in today's world. That fear and slow adaption is long gone.

The WEpod is a completely SDC and it's on the roads. There is no more debating when they will go into use, they already are.

Elon Musk says 2018 for the US. Only a fool bets against Elon Musk, and many have.


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## Another Uber Driver (May 27, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Cabs, as they exist, are dead men walking.


I have been hearing that since 2012. Why am I still in business? Why is Uber dealing with me as a cab driver?

Yes, one company in SF did go bankrupt, but they would not come into the twenty-first century. There, everything is on the companies, as it is. Here, the owner-operators still hold most of the cards, despite the Regulators' trying to take them away. The Regulators are learning, though, that perhaps that _*ain't*_ the best idea. Yes, there are some cab drivers here who are still crying about Uber. Some of us, though, have chosen to quit crying about them and work with them and compete with them at the same time. We have our own applications as well as using Uber Taxi, as Uber has made that available to us, here.

Mr. Musk is a bit optimistic. I will not bet on his timetable. I will not bet against the substance of his prediction that the driverless car will come. I would copper a bet on a timetable for its acceptance, though, even among the young who love technology. I do not share your faith in Wall Street.

Still, the driverless car will come. It will not put me out of work. It *MIGHT* put the guy who just received his hack face out of work by the time that he is my age, but it will not put me out of work. My inability to drive any more will put me out of work, first. By that time, the self-driving car will be accepted enough that I can get someone to finance five or ten of them for me, I can put them out there while I play shuffleboard at the Nursing Home and when I want to sneak out to the gin mill or the Nationals game, I can summon one, enter my code and get a free ride. It will not be too hard to program it to get from the Home to the ballpark.

When Bryce Harper is a manager, I can tell all of the young people in the stands how I remember when he played. I do remember when Davey Lopes played (he is the First Base Coach) and Dusty Baker (the Manager) played. I even remember when Frank Robinson played (he was their last manager in Montreal and their first here).


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Another Uber Driver said:


> I have been hearing that since 2012. Why am I still in business? Why is Uber dealing with me as a cab driver?
> 
> Yes, one company in SF did go bankrupt, but they would not come into the twenty-first century. There, everything is on the companies, as it is. Here, the owner-operators still hold most of the cards, despite the Regulators' trying to take them away. The Regulators are learning, though, that perhaps that _*ain't*_ the best idea. Yes, there are some cab drivers here who are still crying about Uber. Some of us, though, have chosen to quit crying about them and work with them and compete with them at the same time. We have our own applications as well as using Uber Taxi, as Uber has made that available to us, here.
> 
> ...


Sounds like a plan. I'm also keeping my eye out for SDC opportunities should they arise.

The thing is, this is a race for market share. Not for privately owned SDCs, that's further down the line, but electric glorified golf cart SDC TNCs in Urban areas doing the low speed _aren't we cute and cool_ dance getting everyone accustomed to them.

It's going to require Uber and Lyft sharing with the ICs for us to get in the game. I don't think they will. It will be too slow of a progression for them to need us when their manufacturer partners have the capacity to crank out cars at will and use them for the joint venture at cost. Why cut us in?

I could see upstart rivals cutting in private owners when the SDC becomes available privately though, but what will be their advantage? Price won't be because we will want to be paid and we're paying retail for the SDC. It will have to be a better service or better quality vehicle.

Free water and gum maybe? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And yes, I could see Uber partnering with Ford who is on fire for SDCs OR buying out a smaller manufacturer, which seems more like TK's style.

Cab companies are on the outs because they can't afford to play with these big boys. They will dwindle as young people avoid them altogether because of costs and bad experiences. We both know Uber has a better rider experience almost everywhere in the US, they are the preferred method for the sub 30 group, and it's not just about convenience and price.

I can honestly say I've never heard a pax say, or read an online post by a pax, that preferred taxis unless they were pointing to an Uber horror story like surge or some incident. In general, people who try Uber like them much better. The reason Uber deals with you at all is to suck profit. You're in DC, yes? Very regulated, union, government district. They offer UberTaxi almost nowhere.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341130/uber-travis-kalanick-self-driving-cars-automation-jobs


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

"But they might eventually" but they probably won't is a better way of putting it.


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