# One of the biggest names in the auto industry says that no one will own a car in 20 years



## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

*Longtime auto executive Bob Lutz says the days of the personal car are numbered.*
*Massive autonomous fleets will replace vehicles as we know them.*
*The end of the automobile could arrive in 20 years.*
*
"For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile," he said. "Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules. The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command."

http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-lutz-says-cars-are-over-2017-11
*


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

Lol oh please.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> Lol oh please.


It's becoming harder and harder for the vaunted "UP community" not to sound like total McDoofuses everyday.

*Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye*
*'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'*

*http://www.autonews.com/article/201...1109944/bob-lutz:-kiss-the-good-times-goodbye*


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Ok


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

Dear Mr Lutz,

I’m not sure what it’s like in the great USA, perhaps it’s a land of 100% sealed marked roads, with 100% mobile phone network coverage or will be like that in 20 years time. 

That’s what will be necessary in my humble opinion to make Autonomous cars work completely for users. Remembering that in the future, if someone chooses to use a robot car, they are unlikely to have the skills or licence to drive one, if the Robot needs a little assistance. 

And regular assistance Robot cars do need at the moment! 

I have now driven America’s finest motorcar for over 45,000km - the Tesla Model X with full Autopilot. 

Perhaps in urban situations and lots of specific coding in problem areas, driverless cars will work, but regional areas without lane markings and network coverage I have great doubts. 

Yours Suncerly 

Aussie Model X Owner


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Sydney Uber said:


> Dear Mr Lutz,
> 
> I'm not sure what it's like in the great USA, perhaps it's a land of 100% sealed marked roads, with 100% mobile phone network coverage or will be like that in 20 years time.
> 
> ...


Tesla is level 2. Level 4, which Google/Waymo is about to launch in Phoenix requires no human interaction and does not depend on the cloud, it uses onboard 3D maps of the entire city. Tesla does not. Tesla, in my opinion, is going to be the next Enron. Its stock is getting ready to implode because Tesla is 50 percent hype. The chickens are coming home to roost with Obama no longer propping it up.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Chickens come home to roost.

Although they taste much better roasted.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Chickens come home to roost.
> 
> Although they taste much better roasted.


And people say you bring nothing to the table. Stupid people.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

tomatopaste said:


> Tesla is level 2. Level 4, which Google/Waymo is about to launch in Phoenix requires no human interaction and does not depend on the cloud, it uses onboard 3D maps of the entire city. Tesla does not. Tesla, in my opinion, is going to be the next Enron. Its stock is getting ready to implode because Tesla is 50 percent hype. The chickens are coming home to roost with Obama no longer propping it up.


If everything within a robot car's environment was static then I would agree with you and and be a little more hopeful. (I have also predicted that some cities will have it sorted by 2020).

Google is building a better 3D map of the world with its purpose built data collecting cars, whereas Tesla has gone the cheaper and less precise route of using every one of its Autopilot cars as data collectors.

Have you driven a Tesla? It's a good product, winning a lot of fans. after nearly being sent broke with my prior AUDI Q7) I've enjoyed NO fuel cost, no service, rectification or downtime costs. The Audi cost me over $16,500 in fuel and service costs in each of its last two years.

Tesla is diversifying it's product range. Yes, It's hit a snag recently, but only yesterday Elon had a worldwide video conference with most of his employees. I wasn't privy to it, but the ones I've spoken with are all feeling better about their future after some truths were explained to them.

Tesla won't fail.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Sydney Uber said:


> If everything within a robot car's environment was static then I would agree with you and and be a little more hopeful. (I have also predicted that some cities will have it sorted by 2020).
> 
> Google is building a better 3D map of the world with its purpose built data collecting cars, whereas Tesla has gone the cheaper and less precise route of using every one of its Autopilot cars as data collectors.
> 
> ...


Tesla will implode. Tesla does not use Lidar, without Lidar you cannot operate a level 4 self driving car, period. Musk sold an 8k self driving package to Tesla buyers which he promised would be just around the corner. The corner just keeps getting further away. Angry Tesla owners are already suing in a class action lawsuit.





*Tesla's Elon Musk is 'full of crap' on self-driving cars - according to a GM exec*

*https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...riving-cars-according-to-a-gm-exec-2017-10-06*



Sydney Uber said:


> If everything within a robot car's environment was static then I would agree with you and and be a little more hopeful. (I have also predicted that some cities will have it sorted by 2020).
> 
> Google is building a better 3D map of the world with its purpose built data collecting cars, whereas Tesla has gone the cheaper and less precise route of using every one of its Autopilot cars as data collectors.
> 
> ...


This is why Tesla will fail.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4115592-tesla-2-self-driving-cars-walk-bar


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

tomatopaste said:


> Tesla will implode. Tesla does not use Lidar, without Lidar you cannot operate a level 4 self driving car, period. Musk sold an 8k self driving package to Tesla buyers which he promised would be just around the corner. The corner just keeps getting further away. Angry Tesla owners are already suing in a class action lawsuit.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The GM exec is not exactly a unbiased contributor to all this. I guess he's gotta justify all that bailout money GM still owes the American people. Over 11 BILION dollars at last count.

And he has time to throw stones?

Yeah, Tesla has hit a very challenging time. But there is more upside for Tesla to be helped to survive than any of the legacy auto manufacturers.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Sydney Uber said:


> The GM exec is not exactly a unbiased contributor to all this. I guess he's gotta justify all that bailout money GM still owes the American people. Over 11 BILION dollars at last count.
> 
> And he has time to throw stones?
> 
> Yeah, Tesla has hit a very challenging time. But there is more upside for Tesla to be helped to survive than any of the legacy auto manufacturers.


Google is operating self driving cars on public roads in Phoenix as we speak (no human behind the wheel.) Tesla isn't even going down the right road. Tesla will first have to get on the right road and then spend years trying to catch up. Google and GM are not going to wait. Tesla is walking dead.


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## Suism (Apr 21, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> Google is operating self driving cars on public roads in Phoenix as we speak (no human behind the wheel.) Tesla isn't even going down the right road. Tesla will first have to get on the right road and then spend years trying to catch up. Google and GM are not going to wait. Tesla is walking dead.


2:11 waymo car drove despite it not being it's right of way.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Suism said:


> 2:11 waymo car drove despite it not being it's right of way.


It wasn't a four way stop. Waymo had the right of way, but thanks for playing. Don, what do we have as a parting gift. Ok, ok. Don says we have a half eaten pizza or three bottles of Zima. What would you like?


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## Suism (Apr 21, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> It wasn't a four way stop. Waymo had the right of way, but thanks for playing. Don, what do we have as a parting gift. Ok, ok. Don says we have a half eaten pizza or three bottles of Zima. What would you like?


I mean I'm not a driver forever lmao this shit is just until I'm done with college. Don't have to be such a dick about it smh lmao


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Suism said:


> I mean I'm not a driver forever lmao this shit is just until I'm done with college. Don't have to be such a &%[email protected]!* about it smh lmao


What are you talking about? I was wasn't being a &%[email protected]!* Now this is being a &%[email protected]!*.

However,
at :42 the car stops feet before the pedestrian instead of honking at him like you're supposed to do. 
1:35 the cars slows down because it obviously hit a puppy. 
The woman in the video is way too attractive to be a Waymo employee. The minivans at the end of the video are also obviously CGI and it's clearly a Hollywood studio, not Phoenix.


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## james725 (Sep 14, 2017)

Did u mean one of the biggest idiots in the auto industry? Because that would make a lot more sense


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

james725 said:


> Did u mean one of the biggest idiots in the auto industry? Because that would make a lot more sense


https://media1.tenor.com/images/61472ea9d498f34efd9e20beca0129b3/tenor.gif?itemid=8016310


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

tomatopaste said:


> Google is operating self driving cars on public roads in Phoenix as we speak (no human behind the wheel.) Tesla isn't even going down the right road. Tesla will first have to get on the right road and then spend years trying to catch up. Google and GM are not going to wait. Tesla is walking dead.


Uber is stuffed if Waymo gets its fleet out and operational.

Sure they would have a lot of R & D costs to make up, Chrysler would be cutting them a very good deal on the cars (if they didn't Google would go elsewhere or buy them out!).

I'm sure Waymo would be feeling a lot more comfortable about it's funding pipeline than UBER is.

Doyareckon that after spending mega billions around the world, busting into and taking over Taxi market share, legally and illegally UBER wouldn't be shitting themselves if a driverless car service launched charging 50% less?

It's quite the Technology race that is happening at the moment, you would agree. Maybe the finish line isn't just who gets to market first with driverless cars, but the product offering and what will compel consumers to buy or use specific cars.

Tesla is not dead by a long shot.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Sydney Uber said:


> Uber is stuffed if Waymo gets its fleet out and operational.
> 
> Sure they would have a lot of R & D costs to make up, Chrysler would be cutting them a very good deal on the cars (if they didn't Google would go elsewhere or buy them out!).
> 
> ...


GM has a dedicated production line at their Orion plant in Michigan to produce self driving Chevy Bolts. They say they can produce 200k this year. Tesla can't even produce the model 3 car itself, let alone a self driving version. That's years down the road, if ever. Tesla's **** up by then.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

tomatopaste said:


> GM has a dedicated production line at their Orion plant in Michigan to produce self driving Chevy Bolts. They say they can produce 200k this year. Tesla can't even produce the model 3 car itself, let alone a self driving version. That's years down the road, if ever. Tesla's **** up by then.


It's good to see GM has actually achieved something concrete with the 11.3 Billion dollars it sponged off the American Taxpayers.

The Australian subsidiary of GM, Holden shut its doors on it's manufacturing plant only 2 weeks ago - forever. Holden made a fatal flaw in its business model and allowed the Michigan meatheads way too much say in the cars they built here and what could or couldn't be exported.

The GM Caprice has a American Chevy motor - but was fully built here in OZ. Sold stacks in the Middle East and Police agencies in the States. Unfortunately GM HQ simply refused to allow the smaller Oz built sedan export rights.

You mentioned Bolts? Not a compelling car to buy. How many folks have put down a deposit for one of those?

This was the Volt story in 2012:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...of-low-sales-high-costs-idUSBRE88904J20120910

Here is the Volt & Bolt news of 2017 ( isn't it easy to crow loudly over improved sales figures when they come off such a low base!)
https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-vol...bolt-ev-sales-struggle-with-inventory-issues/

Once again I ask, why are the Public not "reserving" a Bolt - because inventories are high. Did the market in their 100s of thousands put down a deposit for a Model 3 or a Bolt? Why is the market showing such patience and loyalty to a car manufacturer who in your predication will be broke within a couple of years? Dont ask me - I just own a Tesla. Maybe ask all those that dont own one, but only have a Tesla on their shopping list.


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