# Here is why you don't need to worry about being replaced by Self Driving Cars (read this)



## IERide (Jul 1, 2016)

A lot of the know-it-alls here at UP have decreed that Uber will be replacing all of us drivers with Self Driving Cars any day now. But let me point out a few reasons why it's going to be a while before any of us gets replaced by an Uberbot.

1) *The technology isn't there yet*: Many will argue that the technology "is here today!!" and that the "setback" in Tempe AZ was just a 'glitch'. But the fact remains, the technology is NOT yet ready today - testing on the quiet, flat streets of Tempe, or long-haul trucks on straight highways with safety drivers does not equal a "self driving car" nor does it equal "ready today". Don't get me wrong, the technology WILL be ready some day, and self-driving cars _are_ coming. Some say 5 years, I say a minimum 10 years, others say 20 years.
Bottom line: The technology is _NOT_ ready today, it wont be ready tomorrow or next week and won't be ready 1 year from now.

2) *Legislation & liability:* As usual, the government (federal, state, & local) is way behind the technology curve. In most of the country, self driving cars are not legal. They will be, some day, but it's going to take a long time. Issues of liability also have to be worked out. When an Uberbot plows down a mother and her baby crossing the street, who gets sued? Uber? The car manufacturer? The LIDAR manufacturer? The software manufacturer? The passenger? The city? The state?
These are all un-answered questions that will have to be worked out, and it will probably take a while because _nobody_ wants to be liable.

3) *Rider Trust Issues:* It will take a long time before "the average rider" trusts a self driving cars and a lot of old-timers will probably never trust them. A lot of "cutting edge" types and of course the kiddies will trust them on the first day, but they will likely be in the minority. Of course, _one da_y, 10 or 20 years after they are introduced, most people will learn to trust them, but, 10 or 20 years is a long time.

4) *Business Reasons:* Uber is a "technology company". If Uber were to begin using self-driving cars, it would have to become a transportation or Taxi company. Not a big deal for Uber to change, or create a new business, but does this really fit Uber's business model?

5) *Cost:* This is the long tent-pole. This, is the biggest reason why you will likely never be replaced by an Uber self-driving car.
Uber currently has approximately 1-million drivers on the road. To replace them, Uber would have to purchase (or lease) 1-million cars at a guesstimated cost in the billions of dollars. Uber now also has to pay for fuel for all of these cars and will likely also have to pay someone to do the task of fueling them up since a self-driving car can't put gas in itself.
Uber would also have to pay to insure those millions of cars at an additional cost of several hundred million dollars per year. Uber would also have to hire employees or contract someone to fix and maintain those cars, as well as hire or contract people to keep the cars clean. Of course these cars would only last 3-4 years, so Uber would have to buy or lease new cars on an ongoing basis. All of these costs could easily add up to billions of dollars per year.

Now compare those costs to what it pays now for you and me to drive for them: on average Uber pays us $1.20 per mile (IF even that much). That pays for the car, the insurance, the fuel, the repairs, the cleaning, and everything else.

So... Which business model makes more sense?
*Business model A*: Pay a near flat-rate of $1.20 (or less) per mile for human drivers and their cars/insurance/fuel/etc
*Business model B:* Pay billions of dollars per year, perpetually, for self driving cars

This whole ongoing media blitz by Uber about their impending debut of self-driving cars appears to be a farce with the sole purpose of duping gullible investors into dumping more money into the company. Maybe Uber will develop the technology and license it or sell it off, probably at a profit, but a fleet of self driving Uber taxis any time soon does not seem likely.


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## tcaud (Jul 28, 2017)

Uber isn't the only player here. Uber likely feels cornered due to dedicated pushes by Tesla, Google, Waymo, and Apple.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

IERide said:


> A lot of the know-it-alls here at UP have decreed that Uber will be replacing all of us drivers with Self Driving Cars any day now. But let me point out a few reasons why it's going to be a while before any of us gets replaced by an Uberbot.
> 
> 1) *The technology isn't there yet*: Many will argue that the technology "is here today!!" and that the "setback" in Tempe AZ was just a 'glitch'. But the fact remains, the technology is NOT yet ready today - testing on the quiet, flat streets of Tempe, or long-haul trucks on straight highways with safety drivers does not equal a "self driving car" nor does it equal "ready today". Don't get me wrong, the technology WILL be ready some day, and self-driving cars _are_ coming. Some say 5 years, I say a minimum 10 years, others say 20 years.
> Bottom line: The technology is _NOT_ ready today, it wont be ready tomorrow or next week and won't be ready 1 year from now.
> ...


I have said the exact same thing, but not as well as you


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## transporter007 (Feb 19, 2018)

what You're saying is: TNC Drivers will be America's Working Poor indefinitely

IERide You're Not the Dumbest person on the Planet, But u sure better hope iheartuber doesn't Die


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

transporter007 said:


> what You're saying is: TNC Drivers will be America's Working Poor indefinitely
> 
> IERide You're Not the Dumbest person on the Planet, But u sure better hope iheartuber doesn't Die


Just remember Tomato- if your overlords decide to pull the plug on their grand idea and you have to find another job- you can always drive for Uber again.

You just gotta resist the urge to beat up the paxholes when they ask you for water. I know that's gonna be particularly tough for you.


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## LA_Native (Apr 17, 2017)

Also, Uber and Lyft, like any other transportation company, would have to be ADA compliant. They's have to have a number of vehicles within their fleet to outfitted with ramps and personnel to assist. I'd imagine that will ad to their operational costs.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

IERide said:


> A lot of the know-it-alls here at UP have decreed that Uber will be replacing all of us drivers with Self Driving Cars any day now. But let me point out a few reasons why it's going to be a while before any of us gets replaced by an Uberbot.
> 
> 1) *The technology isn't there yet*: Many will argue that the technology "is here today!!" and that the "setback" in Tempe AZ was just a 'glitch'. But the fact remains, the technology is NOT yet ready today - testing on the quiet, flat streets of Tempe, or long-haul trucks on straight highways with safety drivers does not equal a "self driving car" nor does it equal "ready today". Don't get me wrong, the technology WILL be ready some day, and self-driving cars _are_ coming. Some say 5 years, I say a minimum 10 years, others say 20 years.
> Bottom line: The technology is _NOT_ ready today, it wont be ready tomorrow or next week and won't be ready 1 year from now.
> ...


I think SDCs will probably hang around but only as a niche market.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

IERide said:


> A lot of the know-it-alls here at UP have decreed that Uber will be replacing all of us drivers with Self Driving Cars any day now. But let me point out a few reasons why it's going to be a while before any of us gets replaced by an Uberbot.
> 
> 1) *The technology isn't there yet*: Many will argue that the technology "is here today!!" and that the "setback" in Tempe AZ was just a 'glitch'. But the fact remains, the technology is NOT yet ready today - testing on the quiet, flat streets of Tempe, or long-haul trucks on straight highways with safety drivers does not equal a "self driving car" nor does it equal "ready today". Don't get me wrong, the technology WILL be ready some day, and self-driving cars _are_ coming. Some say 5 years, I say a minimum 10 years, others say 20 years.
> Bottom line: The technology is _NOT_ ready today, it wont be ready tomorrow or next week and won't be ready 1 year from now.
> ...


Uber is already paying out billions a year by doing business model a:

Average Uber driver drives 850 miles per week

850 x $1.20 x 1,000,000 drivers = $1billion a week

Or $52 billion a year


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## Notch Johnson (Dec 17, 2016)

I am sure Sears had many similar reasons not to fear Amazon.com when it started. It is coming, it will get here and 70 - 90% of ride share drivers will be gone.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

Notch Johnson said:


> I am sure Sears had many similar reasons not to fear Amazon.com when it started. It is coming, it will get here and 70 - 90% of ride share drivers will be gone.


Long time ago there was.....

Horse and buggies
Retail stores
Bank tellers

And they were replaced by

Cars
Internet shopping
ATMs

But this is a little bit different because the job being done is (literally) life and death.

I'll take money out of the bank from a machine, shop from a machine, and eat a burger flipper by a machine, but when it comes to putting my life on the line, no thanks


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## transporter007 (Feb 19, 2018)

iheartuber said:


> Long time ago there was.....
> 
> Horse and buggies
> Retail stores
> ...


"_eat a burger flipper by a machine_"
Right, cause introduction of mechanically prepared food to series of organs in your digestive system through which food passes, nutrients are absorbed, and waste is eliminated should be of zero concern to a world class thinker like iheartuber

iheartuber psychotic * Hatred of anything & everything Uber* causes her thoughts and emotions to be impaired, subsequently her contact is lost with external reality rendering her opinions suspect

Sad

Was Uber responsible for her metal defect or were the signs of mental deterioration observable before uber.
Is iheartuber a Lyft Shill ? Lyft isn't mentioned in her rants while it's common knowledge that Lyft & Ford are partners in autonomous development https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/27/16373574/ford-lyft-self-driving-car-partnership-gm


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

transporter007 said:


> "_eat a burger flipper by a machine_"
> Right, cause introduction of mechanically prepared food to series of organs in your digestive system through which food passes, nutrients are absorbed, and waste is eliminated should be of zero concern to a world class thinker like iheartuber
> 
> iheartuber psychotic * Hatred of anything & everything Uber* causes her thoughts and emotions to be impaired, subsequently her contact is lost with external reality rendering her opinions suspect
> ...


When I see you post Tomato it gives me hope that you still have a job.

I may disagree with you on a lot of things, but I don't want anyone to get fired.

PS- Lyft is for weirdos. Like, seriously... Lyft pax are certifiable freaks.


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## kdyrpr (Apr 23, 2016)

They don't seem to be cost effective for rideshare. HOW is it possible that they could be profitable when all they have to foot ALL the costs. EVEN if they take the entire amount of the fare.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

kdyrpr said:


> They don't seem to be cost effective for rideshare. HOW is it possible that they could be profitable when all they have to foot ALL the costs. EVEN if they take the entire amount of the fare.


The tomato's team of experts have thought of everything. And they will be glad to show your their numbers on the back of a napkin.


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## kdyrpr (Apr 23, 2016)

iheartuber said:


> The tomato's team of experts have thought of everything. And they will be glad to show your their numbers on the back of a napkin.


The same napkin that put them billions in debt currently no doubt.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

kdyrpr said:


> The same napkin that put them billions in debt currently no doubt.


Uber is billions in debt

Waymo is not.... yet


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## Yam Digger (Sep 12, 2016)

Notch Johnson said:


> I am sure Sears had many similar reasons not to fear Amazon.com when it started. It is coming, it will get here and 70 - 90% of ride share drivers will be gone.


And the herd of cows go "moo."


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

kdyrpr said:


> They don't seem to be cost effective for rideshare. HOW is it possible that they could be profitable when all they have to foot ALL the costs. EVEN if they take the entire amount of the fare.


Economies of scale.

They foot all of the costs now, plus driver profit. Having a fleet will drastically lower costs while improving productivity.



IERide said:


> 1) *The technology isn't there yet*: Many will argue that the technology "is here today!!" and that the "setback" in Tempe AZ was just a 'glitch'. But the fact remains, the technology is NOT yet ready today - testing on the quiet, flat streets of Tempe, or long-haul trucks on straight highways with safety drivers does not equal a "self driving car" nor does it equal "ready today". Don't get me wrong, the technology WILL be ready some day, and self-driving cars _are_ coming. Some say 5 years, I say a minimum 10 years, others say 20 years.
> Bottom line: The technology is _NOT_ ready today, it wont be ready tomorrow or next week and won't be ready 1 year from now.


The setback in Tempe was a tragedy caused by Uber and their talentless SDC program.

Painting everyone else with that brush is silly. The technology is here and it's live. So, no, not 5 or 10 or 20 years, May 2016 on a set route and Oct 2017 without. Predicting _when_ they will come is a fool's errand.



IERide said:


> 2) *Legislation & liability:* As usual, the government (federal, state, & local) is way behind the technology curve. In most of the country, self driving cars are not legal. They will be, some day, but it's going to take a long time. Issues of liability also have to be worked out. When an Uberbot plows down a mother and her baby crossing the street, who gets sued? Uber? The car manufacturer? The LIDAR manufacturer? The software manufacturer? The passenger? The city? The state?
> These are all un-answered questions that will have to be worked out, and it will probably take a while because _nobody_ wants to be liable.


The victims will sue everyone and see what sticks, just as they do now. After a few suits, the ones that actually go to trial, there will be a precedent. That's how it works.

You need to remember that, legally, there would have to be negligence or malice to sue and win. These cases will likely be mostly settled.



IERide said:


> 3) *Rider Trust Issues:* It will take a long time before "the average rider" trusts a self driving cars and a lot of old-timers will probably never trust them. A lot of "cutting edge" types and of course the kiddies will trust them on the first day, but they will likely be in the minority. Of course, _one da_y, 10 or 20 years after they are introduced, most people will learn to trust them, but, 10 or 20 years is a long time.


~27% currently. That's far more than enough to get started. About half of those polled are fence sitters so, should the openings go well, once the safety is proven and convenience is obvious, I believe they will switch over in droves.



IERide said:


> 4) *Business Reasons:* Uber is a "technology company". If Uber were to begin using self-driving cars, it would have to become a transportation or Taxi company. Not a big deal for Uber to change, or create a new business, but does this really fit Uber's business model?


You assume they will own the fleet and that there will be no legislative changes. I don't.



IERide said:


> 5) *Cost:* This is the long tent-pole. This, is the biggest reason why you will likely never be replaced by an Uber self-driving car.
> Uber currently has approximately 1-million drivers on the road. To replace them, Uber would have to purchase (or lease) 1-million cars at a guesstimated cost in the billions of dollars. Uber now also has to pay for fuel for all of these cars and will likely also have to pay someone to do the task of fueling them up since a self-driving car can't put gas in itself.
> Uber would also have to pay to insure those millions of cars at an additional cost of several hundred million dollars per year. Uber would also have to hire employees or contract someone to fix and maintain those cars, as well as hire or contract people to keep the cars clean. Of course these cars would only last 3-4 years, so Uber would have to buy or lease new cars on an ongoing basis. All of these costs could easily add up to billions of dollars per year.


Many billions in fact. Billions that the Auto and tech companies have plenty of.

You should really stop worrying about Uber and start worrying about the entire auto and most major tech companies that are almost all coming for your job. Uber may survive to be one player amongst many, but there WILL be many.

There are no costs Uber doesn't already pay. They pay all of my costs plus profit. If they didn't, I wouldn't be driving. Economies of scale should lead you to believe they will pay less than they do now. They also won't need a million cars to replace us as SDCs can work 24/7 as needed.



IERide said:


> Now compare those costs to what it pays now for you and me to drive for them: on average Uber pays us $1.20 per mile (IF even that much). That pays for the car, the insurance, the fuel, the repairs, the cleaning, and everything else.
> 
> So... Which business model makes more sense?
> *Business model A*: Pay a near flat-rate of $1.20 (or less) per mile for human drivers and their cars/insurance/fuel/etc
> *Business model B:* Pay billions of dollars per year, perpetually, for self driving cars


A brand new sedan costs about .54 a mile to operate through the first 5 years of normal human use. That cost includes aquisition.

Your proposed business models are flawed.

*Business model C: *Aquire SDCs at manufacturer's cost, paying nothing, by sharing a piece of the pie with an auto partner(s). Pay dramatically less for repairs, gas, maintnence, etc, because of economies of scale. Keep the driver's profit.



IERide said:


> This whole ongoing media blitz by Uber about their impending debut of self-driving cars appears to be a farce with the sole purpose of duping gullible investors into dumping more money into the company. Maybe Uber will develop the technology and license it or sell it off, probably at a profit, but a fleet of self driving Uber taxis any time soon does not seem likely.


Uber will never develop SDCs and no one following their efforts thought they would. At best, they'll lease the tech or partner with someone competent.


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## transporter007 (Feb 19, 2018)

It is the first time Congress has appropriated money for the program since the Department of Transportation *designated 10 proving ground pilot sites* to encourage testing, validation and information sharing related to self-driving technologies.

*New Federal spending bill includes $100 million for Autonomous research*

*http://www.autonews.com/article/20180323/MOBILITY/180329794/federal-spending-bill-includes-100-million-for-av-research*


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## Bob fox (May 18, 2016)

We will most definitely have self-driving cars by the year 2600


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## transporter007 (Feb 19, 2018)

Bob fox said:


> We will most definitely have self-driving cars by the year 2600


Swing and a Miss.
Good morning Rumpelstiltskin
SDC are here already.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

transporter007 said:


> Swing and a Miss.
> Good morning Rumpelstiltskin
> SDC are here already.


I think what he means is this:

When SDCs are available but very minimally being selected by consumers you might as well treat them as if they don't even exist.

If and when (more if then when) they become as ubiquitous as the iPhone then talk to me about how "they are already here"


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## transporter007 (Feb 19, 2018)

iheartuber said:


> I think what he means is this:
> 
> When SDCs are available but very minimally being selected by consumers you might as well treat them as if they don't even exist.
> 
> If and when (more if then when) they become as ubiquitous as the iPhone then talk to me about how "they are already here"


*Waymo Orders Up to 20,000 Jaguar SUVs for Driverless Fleet*

https://www.wsj.com/articles/waymo-orders-up-to-20-000-jaguar-suvs-for-driverless-fleet-1522159944

*The deal, potentially worth more than $1 billion, comes a day after Arizona's governor suspended testing of Uber's autonomous vehicles in the state*


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

transporter007 said:


> *Waymo Orders Up to 20,000 Jaguar SUVs for Driverless Fleet*
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/waymo-orders-up-to-20-000-jaguar-suvs-for-driverless-fleet-1522159944
> 
> *The deal, potentially worth more than $1 billion, comes a day after Arizona's governor suspended testing of Uber's autonomous vehicles in the state*


That doesn't prove consumers will decide to ride with a robot over a human

In fact it doesn't even prove a substantial # of cars will be on the road anytime soon

Read the fine print "Waymo orders up to 20,000 cars..." UP TO.

Translation: if this takes off, Waymo will take the full 20,000. If not, they will take 20


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> That doesn't prove consumers will decide to ride with a robot over a human
> 
> In fact it doesn't even prove a substantial # of cars will be on the road anytime soon
> 
> ...


I will spend Up To $250,000 on my next Ubermobile!!!!


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## IERide (Jul 1, 2016)

So many members need to read the OP


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

iheartuber said:


> That doesn't prove consumers will decide to ride with a robot over a human
> 
> In fact it doesn't even prove a substantial # of cars will be on the road anytime soon
> 
> ...


LOL!

And then they ordered 62,000 more.

Do you really think they have no idea what their market is?


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> LOL!
> 
> And then they ordered 62,000 more.
> 
> Do you really think they have no idea what their market is?


Do I think corporate CEOs are clueless? Yes, yes I do


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Do I think corporate CEOs are clueless? Yes, yes I do


Problem is they never got those cars! That is a promise, but could change in an instant like Uber - Volvo deal (up to 24000 cars between 2019 and 2021) is out on the window now.


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## transporter007 (Feb 19, 2018)

*Waymo Buys 62,000 Chrysler Minivans for Ride-SDC Hailing Service*
*https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/...-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well*


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