# Autonomous Driving Vehicles and Business Model



## SansTalent (Apr 22, 2017)

It is now clear that most major rideshare and other transportation companies are looking towards removing the driver from the business equation.

Lyft = Future Autonomous
Uber = Future Autonomous
Tesla = Almost Ready!
+ Lots more to join

manual labor jobs will be obsolete. All current drivers are doing is funding this self fulfilling prophecy to become more efficient. Of course drivers are being rewarded in the interim with an income stream that they *chose*. They can simply choose another form if they wish to do so.

Employer: "Thanks for all that you do (this statement is all that you will get from us, BTW), we couldn't have gotten to this point without you (true/fact). To be completely transparent, we will be transitioning to a completely automated driver/vehicle platform and tossing you folks to the curb (pun intended) in a few years when all regulations have passed. We have conducted surveys that indicated that our passengers would rather not have a driver if the safety and reliability were on-par with a safe human driver. We know that our drivers have questions about this, so I will answer them right now. Firstly (and Lastly), we know we can still retain you as drivers as most people are too weak minded for change, and hence do not make them even for themselves when it's wildly apparent that they should do so and rely on a powerful alternative called the 'denial + anger' recipe. This change towards autonomy will not occur suddenly, but will do so in gradual phases in our dedicated markets that have been cleared to do so. We still need drivers to keep our funding strong enough to get to 'tomorrow.' So, please keep doing what you do and we will keep sending you lots of emails with great wording and practice what we have learned from all of our staff involved with behavioral sciences to keep all of you at bay (for the time being). Please do not hesitate to email us with any further questions (but, please don't expect a bona-fide considerate reply, but rather a canned reply message).

Again, thanks for all that you. You are truly great people even though you complain and ridicule our brethren, Travis and Logan for being greedy and mean spirited (and yet you still stick around, LOL)."

Driver: "**shrug** You guys suck and driving sucks with all these terrible passengers (aka PAX because we don't like to spell things out these days). I'm going to quit one of these days... for real this time. You'll be sorry!


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## PMM (Jun 20, 2017)

If or when Uber gets to the point where autonomous cars take over, they may be in for a shock when they come head to head with the expense of maintaining a fleet of cars, fuel, maintenance, insurance, and all the other expenses they currently don't see because they are being shouldered by drivers. At that point, I expect the fares to increase to cover these expenses.


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## Christian Prenzler (Jun 19, 2017)

I agree with the OP, Tesla is close to launching full-autonomy, while Uber and Lyft are still a far away from launch


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

PMM said:


> If or when Uber gets to the point where autonomous cars take over, they may be in for a shock when they come head to head with the expense of maintaining a fleet of cars, fuel, maintenance, insurance, and all the other expenses they currently don't see because they are being shouldered by drivers. At that point, I expect the fares to increase to cover these expenses.


So, so, uninformed.

So Uber doesn't pay for your car now? The insurance? Your 75% to 80% cost?

That's weird because they pay all my costs, provide insurance, plus a nice profit for me.

How do fares increase with a 75%-80% cost savings? Please explain.

Do you really think maintaining a car at retail costs is cheaper than electric fleets?


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> So, so, uninformed.
> 
> So Uber doesn't pay for your car now? The insurance? Your 75% to 80% cost?
> 
> ...


Each SDC ( Waymo ) car has $150,000 worth of extra equipment. This will probably go down, but still, you got a $20,000 car, plus expensive gear, multiply times 400,000 cars worldwide, warehouses, technicians, garage mechanics, and the expenses go way way way way up and up and up for Uber.

I've been in business before. Before I launched, I crunched numbers, figured out costs.
After operating the business for 13 years, I looked at those original cost projections and
had a good laugh, the real costs were far more than I ever imagined, and this is usually
the case with most businesses, especially complicated businesses. I sincerely doubt there
will be a 75% cost savings, but we shall see.

Good luck on making these rides cheaper


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> Each SDC ( Waymo ) car has $150,000 worth of extra equipment.


Yes, they do. Because they are prototypes with legacy and custom made parts. Most estimates for SDC equipment in manufacturing are in the $5,000 range.



Oscar Levant said:


> This will probably go down, but still, you got a $20,000 car, plus expensive gear, multiply times 400,000 cars worldwide, warehouses, technicians, garage mechanics, and the expenses go way way way way up and up and up for Uber.


No, not a $20,000 car. These are glorified golfcarts with nicer bodies at _manufacturer's cost_, not retail. Uber will probably not have to pay a dime for a fleet. Lyft already won't.



Oscar Levant said:


> I've been in business before. Before I launched, I crunched numbers, figured out costs.
> After operating the business for 13 years, I looked at those original cost projections and
> had a good laugh, the real costs were far more than I ever imagined, and this is usually
> the case with most businesses, especially complicated businesses. I sincerely doubt there
> will be a 75% cost savings, but we shall see.


There won't be 75% savings because they will be sharing profit with auto manufacturers. All costs should go down though. Efficiency of scale and fleet management. You pay an auto technician plus profit, they pay an employee to swap parts.



Oscar Levant said:


> Good luck on making these rides cheaper


They don't need luck, it's cooked into the soup already.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Yes, they do. Because they are prototypes with legacy and custom made parts. Most estimates for SDC equipment in manufacturing are in the $5,000 range.
> 
> No, not a $20,000 car. These are glorified golfcarts with nicer bodies at _manufacturer's cost_, not retail. Uber will probably not have to pay a dime for a fleet. Lyft already won't.
> 
> ...


Well, I'll believe it when I see it. I've been with Uber 4 years, and have been hearing about SDCs for a while now, and I'm still waiting for even the day cars are for hire, with no engineers, no drivers.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

SansTalent said:


> It is now clear that most major rideshare and other transportation companies are looking towards removing the driver from the business equation.
> 
> Lyft = Future Autonomous
> Uber = Future Autonomous
> ...


"Will it go Round in Circles "?

1.)uber will have to clean cars.
I do 40 rides a day. Car must be wiped glass, door handles, floor mats shaken out every 5-6 rides.
2.)car must be washed and vaccumed thoroughly once or more a day.
3.) car must be inspected inside and out each shift.
4.) pax will quietly puke and not say a thing.
5.)car must be fueled every 4-6 hours.
I try not to go below 1/2 tank. You never know where next trip is going.
6.)passengers must be policed.
7.)i function as security for passengers also.escape and evasion moves must be made.
8.) we are rolling therapists.
9.) robo cars cant load luggage or wheelchairs.
10.)i monitor each sound of the car and engine.



Oscar Levant said:


> Each SDC ( Waymo ) car has $150,000 worth of extra equipment. This will probably go down, but still, you got a $20,000 car, plus expensive gear, multiply times 400,000 cars worldwide, warehouses, technicians, garage mechanics, and the expenses go way way way way up and up and up for Uber.
> 
> I've been in business before. Before I launched, I crunched numbers, figured out costs.
> After operating the business for 13 years, I looked at those original cost projections and
> ...


They are counting the 75% we are paid !

Which we dont even keep 1/2 of after expenses.

They WILL NEVER DO WHAT WE DO FOR CHEAPER !

Never


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> Well, I'll believe it when I see it. I've been with Uber 4 years, and have been hearing about SDCs for a while now, and I'm still waiting for even the day cars are for hire, with no engineers, no drivers.


They already are. I've already pointed this out.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Let me me this real simple. People with far more financial expertise than anyone on this forum (myself included) have run the numbers based on historical data on the results of automating many industries. They concluded a long time ago that there will be a huge long-term savings directly resulting from replacement of a percentage of (not all) human rideshare drivers together with elimination of a similar percentage of Uber's support staff for those drivers.

This savings will obviously not appear for the first few years when the high initial cost of SDC depreciation combined with one-time startup costs of a supporting infrastructure will result in net losses. This will not bother Uber, Lyft, etc. that have always run at a loss. However, as the cost of SDCs rapidly decreases (say 10% a year) the losses will decrease until profits appear.

Many, perhaps most, of the problematic situations that people have mentioned will be issues for many years after SDCs are implemented. This will be addressed by a number of human drivers that will continue to be in service for those tasks for which SDCs are not yet capable. As SDCs become more capable, the number of human drivers in service will continue to decrease.

There is no way to fight the historic, accelerating trend of increasing automation in most industries (examples: law and medicine) across all of society. It can only be managed to minimize the impact on displaced workers. SDCs are only one small part of this historic trend.


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## SansTalent (Apr 22, 2017)

I started this thread due to my personal concern that more and more tasks will become automated. There will be those that have the same reply of believing it when they see it. Maybe it's too difficult to *actually* see something until it happens (which is too late to react to, BTW), but most people have intelligence to *visualize* that such automation can look like and how it may affect them. I bet farmers out there had similar thoughts towards corporate farming and how its taken over--ask them about it now.

Again, my concern is that most drivers are living day-to-day and simply do not wish to wean themselves from the current income stream. Automation is coming and will take over transportation starting with long haul truckers. When this happens, we'll have a bunch of workers that will need to be retooled to accomplish other tasks (that are not manual labor oriented). This manual labor thing will be a thing of the past and we will need to transition to creative thought to perpetuate our relevance in the work force.

The irony here is that we are feeding those and helping them continue something that will end up with no such reciprocity.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

lol we've been hearing this shit for decades. The robots are coming for your jerb! The only thing that actually happens is some extremely simple tasks are automated while the proponents never seem to learn from their ridiculously rosy forecasts and wildly unrealistic assumptions. I believe planes, trains, and ships were supposed to have their costly crews removed 15 years ago.....odd that they're still around for some reason.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> ... The robots are coming for your jerb! ../.


What is "my jerb"? Why do the robots want it? Maybe I'm better off without it? How much can I get for it on Ebay?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> lol we've been hearing this shit for decades. The robots are coming for your jerb! The only thing that actually happens is some extremely simple tasks are automated while the proponents never seem to learn from their ridiculously rosy forecasts and wildly unrealistic assumptions. I believe planes, trains, and ships were supposed to have their costly crews removed 15 years ago.....odd that they're still around for some reason.


You believed that?


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> lol we've been hearing this shit for decades. The robots are coming for your jerb! The only thing that actually happens is some extremely simple tasks are automated while the proponents never seem to learn from their ridiculously rosy forecasts and wildly unrealistic assumptions. I believe planes, trains, and ships were supposed to have their costly crews removed 15 years ago.....odd that they're still around for some reason.


Your right the robots are not coming because the are ALREADY HERE! Freight Trains and Cargo Ships have already been automated, using a fraction of the crew required a few years ago. Planes and trucks are next. In the coming 2-3 decades, Automation will affect 80% of today's jobs.


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