# The Driverless Revolution Isn’t Coming Anytime Soon



## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

https://medium.com/@parismarx/the-driverless-revolution-isnt-coming-anytime-soon-fdf569cd6c6f

We've all heard the story at some point in the past few years. The tech and auto industries are on the cusp of rolling out vehicles that can drive themselves and will forever transform the way we move. We'll be able to summon driverless pods that will whisk us to our destinations, making personal vehicles unnecessary and freeing up all the space wasted on parking to be used for parks and public gathering spaces - or so they tell us.

The driverless gold standard is level 5, which is what will be required if Silicon Valley's transportation revolution has a chance of coming to fruition. Level 5 is the Google car pod without a steering wheel or the moving office where everyone faces each other. In order to be considered level 5, the autonomous system needs to be able to navigate every imaginable driving, road, and weather condition - which is precisely why it's nowhere near ready. *There are many hurdles - both hardware and software - that self-driving cars still need to jump before they can reach level 5 capabilities, and they're not going to be as easy to work out as the technology's boosters initially suggested.*

*Elon Musk says self-driving cars will be ready in two years - the same thing he said two years ago
In December 2017, Musk updated his timeline for the arrival of fully self-driving vehicles to two years, and said they'll be significantly better than humans in three years. Of course, two years ago he also said they'd be ready in two years, so maybe take that prediction with the usual caveat that comes with a Musk timeline: it's complete bullshit.*

GM is seemingly the only traditional automaker continuing to make bold claims - promising an autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel by 2019at CES - but it remains to seen if the company can really meet its timeline or if it's just making another overambitious announcement like so many before it. *GM's self-driving vehicles were involved in six accidents in September 2017 alone, so there's good reason to be skeptical.*

In order to achieve level 5 capabilities, self-driving vehicles need to be ready for absolutely anything. Marshall quoted Nutonomy CEO Karl Iagnemma as saying the first 99 percent of autonomous capabilities were "a walk in the park" compared to the final 1 percent - though it seems unlikely the technology that far along.

*Describing the state of the sensors on autonomous vehicles, Salesky explained that "ndividual sensors don't fully reproduce what they capture, so the computer has to combine the inputs from multiple sensors, then sort out the errors and inconsistencies"; and, on top of all that, "significant work" remains to be done "to lower costs, reduce sensor count, and improve range and resolution." While more companies are getting into the space, the price of equipping a vehicle with LiDAR sensors is still in the five-figure range, according to SFChronicle.*_

Backing up the earlier suggestion that autonomous vehicles may not be able to handle the situations that some companies are currently putting them in, *Salesky also acknowledged that attentive drivers are good at "subconsciously estimating the next few seconds of behavior from other road users" and anticipating what they might do; tasks which algorithms cannot yet perform to nearly the same level.*

*The autonomous systems also struggle in a variety of driving situations. In busy urban cores, there are a lot of people, vehicles, and sometimes bikes that need to be tracked, and the algorithms simply haven't reached the level where they're capabale of handling it, as GM, Uber, and other companies have demonstrated. They also struggle in bad weather conditions. Anyone who's ever driven in the winter knows how dirty vehicles can get, which makes cameras particularly unreliable, and both rain and snow can mess with the LiDAR lasers. Plus, if there's snow on the road, extra attention needs to paid to other drivers and to one's own driving, and autonomous systems are having more trouble being trained in such conditions.*

*Drivers had to take over from Uber's self-driving car ten times for every eight miles
Data on the autonomous technologies of various companies also shows that while some are doing better than others, progress may be stalling.* Data obtained by Recode in March 2017 showed that a driver had to take over from Uber's autonomous system "an average of 10 times for every eight miles driven," and the distance between "bad experiences" - when the car did something it wasn't supposed to - was actually getting worse. Uber's tech was judged to be by far the worst in the industry, while Google's Waymo had the best - a fact Uber has even admitted.

While Waymo does seem to be excelling, new data about its system and its pilot service in the suburbs of Phoenix are illustrative of the current state of self-driving technology.
.









*Leading Tech is Still Far From Perfect*
*In a breakdown of the data on Waymo's driverless vehicles at the end of 2017, Tasha Keeney showed that while the company tripled the distance between human interventions from 2015 to 2016, it's currently stalled at an average of around 5,000 miles (8,050 kilometres). While Keeney acknowledged that the lack of progress may be a result of testing in more difficult situations, she ultimately concluded that "autonomous taxis will not be ready for prime time until the early 2020's, if then."*

If any company can deliver on such a timeline, it seems that Waymo is best positioned, but even then a lot of progress will have to be made over the next few years. *Waymo began running a driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona near the end of 2017 and its limitations are instructive of the state of the technology.

The vehicles involved in the service are only level 4, meaning they'll be fine in most situations, and if they run into anything they can't handle they'll be able to safely pull themselves over since there are no human operators. The service doesn't cover the whole of the Phoenix metropolitan area, but is limited to the suburb of Chandler, where the vehicles won't need to worry too much about humans on foot, nor should the roads be too narrow or congested with other vehicles. The weather in Chandler is clear, sunny, and dry - perfect for the current state of autonomous vehicles.*

Waymo recently began testing its vehicles in Michigan to give them more experience in challenging conditions, but it's unlikely they could safely carry passengers there and the company won't be rolling a driverless taxi service in a Detroit suburb anytime soon. *Waymo may be ahead of other companies, but it still has a long way to go.*

It can be exciting to indulge the visions of Silicon Valley CEOs, *but it's also important to remain realistic about what they're able to deliver, especially given their habit of getting ahead of themselves*. *Driverless vehicle technology is progressing, but not at the speed we were initially led to believe. A lot of the issues that remain to be worked out aren't so simple, and it will likely take time to develop the capabilities necessary for the vehicles to drive in more difficult conditions.*

As companies continue to work out these aspects of the technology, the hype about driverless vehicles may wane, at least for a few years; and while driverless trucks may become more common on highways and autonomous shuttles may find their way into retirement communities,* it's highly unlikely that self-driving cars will become a feature of urban life anytime soon.*

and just for you tomatopaste , look what I snapped today in Kirkland on my way to my car.










I will be watching these things like a hawk and document for the benefit of the "vaunted UP community" all the **** ups it causes. Today it was just being driven by some pissed off looking dude in the driver seat with nobody in the back._


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> https://medium.com/@parismarx/the-driverless-revolution-isnt-coming-anytime-soon-fdf569cd6c6f
> 
> We've all heard the story at some point in the past few years. The tech and auto industries are on the cusp of rolling out vehicles that can drive themselves and will forever transform the way we move. We'll be able to summon driverless pods that will whisk us to our destinations, making personal vehicles unnecessary and freeing up all the space wasted on parking to be used for parks and public gathering spaces - or so they tell us.
> 
> ...


" SPACE : THE FINAL FRONTIER!"

To boldly go where no BOT has gone before".

What ! What ?
No appeal ?
Driverless cars have no appeal either !

" One small step for Robots
One giant Leap for the Death of Evolution"

Ok. . .
WHICH
WAS MORE EXCITING ?
Mans first step on moon ?
Or the Mars Rover ?

Which EVENT is Larger in YOUR Mind ?


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> https://medium.com/@parismarx/the-driverless-revolution-isnt-coming-anytime-soon-fdf569cd6c6f
> 
> We've all heard the story at some point in the past few years. The tech and auto industries are on the cusp of rolling out vehicles that can drive themselves and will forever transform the way we move. We'll be able to summon driverless pods that will whisk us to our destinations, making personal vehicles unnecessary and freeing up all the space wasted on parking to be used for parks and public gathering spaces - or so they tell us.
> 
> ...


Yup.
Waymo

Waymo Money to do wayless !



tohunt4me said:


> Yup.
> Waymo
> 
> Waymo Money to do wayless !


Like a Driverless NASCAR RACE.
WHATS THE POINT ?

Who does Google THINK it will sell adds to
When we are all broke and out of work ?

Who will need rides ?

Robots ?

Let Google play MONOPOLY
with Robots.

Robots should pay the taxes too.
We cant


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> https://medium.com/@parismarx/the-driverless-revolution-isnt-coming-anytime-soon-fdf569cd6c6f
> 
> We've all heard the story at some point in the past few years. The tech and auto industries are on the cusp of rolling out vehicles that can drive themselves and will forever transform the way we move. We'll be able to summon driverless pods that will whisk us to our destinations, making personal vehicles unnecessary and freeing up all the space wasted on parking to be used for parks and public gathering spaces - or so they tell us.
> 
> ...


Uh oh, Waymo's in trouble now. Heynow's on the job. Kirkland is one the four cities in which Waymo has conducted most of their testing. Mountain View California will have self driving Waymos (with no one in the driver's seat) on the road by April 2. Metro Seattle, metro SF and Austin are the next cities to fall.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

lol "most of their testing". i live here. myself and neighbors have never seen them before. they haven't tested shit around here.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> lol "most of their testing". i live here. myself and neighbors have never seen them before. they haven't tested shit around here.


You haven't seen the minivans but they been mapping all of Kirkland and are now bringing in the vans. Happy Ubering


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> You haven't seen the minivans but they been mapping all of Kirkland and are now bringing in the vans. Happy Ubering


"All of Kirkland" lol. You obviously don't know how small Kirkland is. This is so great. Greg can't just talk out of his ass and make shit up as we have eyes on the ground now.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> "All of Kirkland" lol. You obviously don't know how small Kirkland is. This is so great. Greg can't just talk out of his ass and make shit up as we have eyes on the ground now.


Heynow is genetically incapable of being right, about anything.

Waymo's self-driving Pacifica minivans have been tested in 25 cities in the US (most of which are in California) and are currently on the road in five main cities: Atlanta, San Francisco, Detroit, Phoenix, and Kirkland, Washington. 
https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/30/16948356/waymo-google-fiat-chrysler-pacfica-minivan-self-driving


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Heynow is genetically incapable of being right, about anything.
> 
> Waymo's self-driving Pacifica minivans have been tested in 25 cities in the US (most of which are in California) and are currently on the road in five main cities: Atlanta, San Francisco, Detroit, Phoenix, and Kirkland, Washington.
> https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/30/16948356/waymo-google-fiat-chrysler-pacfica-minivan-self-driving


Time is not on your side tomatopaste

As the weeks, months and eventually years pass without anything you ever said about SDCs coming true, no one is going to listen to you. (They barely listen to you now)


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

live 5 blocks away from google, walk the neighborhood almost every day. yesterday was the first time i've ever seen one around here. neighbors have never seen one either. lol sorry gregster but they aren't doing shit around here. i'll let you know when i see one in DT seattle in the rain at 2 am with millennial zombies roaming around.....probably in about 15 years.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Time is not on your side tomatopaste
> 
> As the weeks, months and eventually years pass without anything you ever said about SDCs coming true, no one is going to listen to you. (They barely listen to you now)


How do you manage to dress yourself? You can't see what's two feet in front of your face.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> How do you manage to dress yourself? You can't see what's two feet in front of your face.


You were about 12 years old back in 2003 but maybe you remember during the Iraq war, the Iraqi's had a press secretary that used to say on tv every night how Iraq was winning the war. It was pure comedy.

You must have been influenced by him


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> live 5 blocks away from google, walk the neighborhood almost every day. yesterday was the first time i've ever seen one around here. neighbors have never seen one either. lol sorry gregster but they aren't doing shit around here. i'll let you know when i see one in DT seattle in the rain at 2 am with millennial zombies roaming around.....probably in about 15 years.


Waymo says they've been in Kirkland for a year. The Verge says Kirkland is one of five main cities, but Heynow who is genetically incapable of being right about anything, says Waymo and the Verge are lying.



iheartuber said:


> You were about 12 years old back in 2003 but maybe you remember during the Iraq war, the Iraqi's had a press secretary that used to say on tv every night how Iraq was winning the war. It was pure comedy.
> 
> You must have been influenced by him


I posted a Bagdad Bob video 2 days ago


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Waymo says they've been in Kirkland for a year. The Verge says Kirkland is one of five main cities, but Heynow who is genetically incapable of being right about anything, says Waymo and the Verge are lying.


Perhaps the better explanation is that even though Waymo may very well have been in Kirkland for a year, the fact that an average citizen such as heynow321 has only seen them around recently may indicate that Waymo didn't really do much in Kirkland until just recently. Even though they were there for a year.



tomatopaste said:


> I posted a Bagdad Bob video 2 days ago


I'm sure he's your hero


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## 123dragon (Sep 14, 2016)

iheartuber is this your blog? The guy that wrote the article doesn't have much credibility.

http://parismarx.com/about/

Not saying tomatopaste is right. I get this area is supposed to be about posting articles on autonomous but if we decide the level of journalism is every twenty year old person that decides to create a blog you and doesn't demonstrate any sort of seeing the vehicles just reporting off of what others report, we might as well just have all of Google's search results each day added to this site..

I miss jocker12. I guess the tension between him and tomatopaste led to them finally making out. You could cut that tension with a warm butter knife. So tense...


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

123dragon said:


> iheartuber is this your blog? The guy that wrote the article doesn't have much credibility.
> 
> http://parismarx.com/about/
> 
> ...


I have no blogs. Ain't nobody got time for that.

Not sure what you're saying about me but I'll say this much about my posts.

I'm frustrated at tomatopaste 's hype, especially in light of how it goes against real world applications mentioned by anyone who runs a transportation business. Isn't Waymo supposed to be getting into the Transportation business? Shouldn't they listen to the professionals?

That's like if a young kid wants to get into the software business, he talks to Bill Gates, and then after everything Bill Gates advises him to do he says "ha! That's not important. I don't have to do that."

After a while it gets annoying.

I probably should have followed suit with many of my Uber brethren who have long since ignored the Tomato.

I'm probably close to that now.

tomatopaste = RIP. Aug 2017- March 2018


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## 123dragon (Sep 14, 2016)

iheartuber said:


> I have no blogs. Ain't nobody got time for that.
> 
> Not sure what you're saying about me but I'll say this much about my posts.
> 
> ...


Not targeting you just the author of the blog. Look at the about me and read his experience. No different then a forum post here, he is just trying to interpret other news articles pieces of data and speculate.

"Shouldn't they listen to the professionals?" - I personally don't know what Waymo is doing, but the news points to Waymo investing a lot of money into autonomous technology. They are thinking about some of the things that go with Transport of a passenger:

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/23/technology/waymo-self-driving-car-puke-patent/index.html

I explained how I wouldn't necessarily look at Uber as a transportation company here:
https://uberpeople.net/posts/3459624/

The race to autonomous is going to be about data. Pricing of trips in autonomous could potentially run at a loss and be subsidized in other ways because gathering data on how a person moves may end up being far more valuable, which explains Softbanks recent investment into Uber.

In this digital revolution we are going through we are not taking one thing such as a car driven by a human and replacing it with an autonomous car, the thought process is to think about how it can be transformed. What other area's can be rethought in the operations and how can I derive additional value from them.

Looking at the digital transformation of how a person hails as an example. Uber could of just stopped at creating an app that allowed people to use a phone to get a vehicle and allow tracking on it. That would of been modernizing the taxi service for a lot of place since most of the time a customer has no idea whether a cab is really coming or when. Instead what they did was rethink the whole supply chain of passenger transportation creating algorithms to incentivize drivers to be out at certain times demand exists. Using algorithms to negotiate price with passengers through upfront pricing of what they think they will pay to maximize price. The whole supply chain for taxi service has been disrupted and for a lot of customers it has been an improvement because reliability of upfront price and service are the most important thing.

The capability to do this stuff has been around for a long time. The first AI system was built in 1965 which was a chat bot that would talk to users. Next came a computer that could play checkers and eventually derived a perfect system to always win or always tie. The ability to win at chess or Jeapordy followed later in the 80 and 00. The capability of AI systems grew with time. That capability has always been limited by the amount of processing power a computer has and the availability of data. Now that we have clouds of data and a cell phone with the power of an entire building of computers from the 1970s what we can do is much larger. These same principals are what drives the autonomous car.

Bridgewater the largest hedgefund in the united states has been using Uber's methods since the 1980s to trade on the stock market. Since their existence they have only had one year of low growth around 1.9%. Since finance was big money in the 80s it make sense that was where AI was first heavily leveraged by a company.

The point of that background is that the framework is there for an autonomous car to operate the question is does the hardware processing power of a CPU and the data we collect through the censors provide enough information to out perform a human.

This affects so many industries transportation is just the focus of this board.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

123dragon said:


> Not targeting you just the author of the blog. Look at the about me and read his experience. No different then a forum post here, he is just trying to interpret other news articles pieces of data and speculate.
> 
> "Shouldn't they listen to the professionals?" - I personally don't know what Waymo is doing, but the news points to Waymo investing a lot of money into autonomous technology. They are thinking about some of the things that go with Transport of a passenger:
> 
> ...


Data mining only works if it eventually leads to some kind of sale.

For example, let's say waymo's Analysis of Brad's usage of the Waymo taxi indicates he might be interested in Cuervo tequila (7 trips to a bar in 3 days). So they sell his email to Cuervo who then spams him with coupons but whaddaya know? Brad hates Tequila. In fact he wasn't even going to the bar. He was going to the yoga studio across the street but he just put in the bar's address because it was easier.

So there's a whole lotta data down the drain. Sure sounds nice when you sell it to brands but if they don't see an uptick they're gonna move on.

As for the Tomato, apparently his job was to find out how SDCs are going to effect Uber drivers. But before he started antagonizing people on UP, his research firm didn't get ANY replies at all.

So they invented the Tomato account with the express purpose of being a jerk just to get a reply.

What they did not think was going to happen was dozens of drivers would pipe in about how SDCs are not going to work- not because they were emotional about losing their jobs but because they know the day to day of how to run a transportation business and Waymo is far from demonstrating they are on that path.

At this point I'm not sure if the Tomato's insults are still part of the strategy just to get a reply or if he really is that arrogant. Maybe a little bit of both.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> I have no blogs. Ain't nobody got time for that.
> 
> Not sure what you're saying about me but I'll say this much about my posts.
> 
> ...


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


>


Dude, you're a broken record. The only retort you have now to any argument I make is "I'm a moron."

Pretty weak way of making your case sir

Show me some proof beyond the shadow of a doubt WHY I'm a moron and then you've got something.

Oh wait... you can't. I forgot


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> I probably should have followed suit with many of my Uber brethren who have long since ignored the Tomato.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


>


Kid, I hope you learned something about how to conduct yourself online and how to be professional.

Clients come and go. But your skills last with you for your entire career


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Dude, you're a broken record. The only retort you have now to any argument I make is "I'm a moron."
> 
> Pretty weak way of making your case sir
> 
> ...


1. I didn't call you a moron
2. Bugs didn't call you a moron



iheartuber said:


> Kid, I hope you learned something about how to conduct yourself online and how to be professional.
> 
> Clients come and go. But your skills last with you for your entire career


Tomato's a bad bad boy


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> 1. I didn't call you a moron
> 2. Bugs didn't call you a moron
> 
> Tomato's a bad bad boy


Let this be a lesson kids- just because the Wendy's twitter account berates their customers and is very sassy, don't think that tone is appropriate for all your online communication.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

my guess is he's trying to distract from the original content of this thread. notice how all the points in the article have been ignored.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

This article is so full of erroneous nonsense, I just laughed and moved on.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> This article is so full of erroneous nonsense, I just laughed and moved on.


Here's a very unscientific way to prove whether this article is erroneous or not:

Wait 2 years from now.

After that, ask yourself: Are SDCs any closer to world domination? If yes then you got something. If no, then you don't.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

iheartuber said:


> Here's a very unscientific way to prove whether this article is erroneous or not:
> 
> Wait 2 years from now.
> 
> After that, ask yourself: Are SDCs any closer to world domination? If yes then you got something. If no, then you don't.


____



heynow321 said:


> The driverless gold standard is level 5, which is what will be required if Silicon Valley's transportation revolution has a chance of coming to fruition.


This is false. Level 4 is all that is needed. Level 5 will come long after SDCs have taken over most driving. It's simply not a requirement.

So, they couldn't even make it past the entire premise of their argument either because of ignorance or malice.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> ____
> 
> This is false. Level 4 is all that is needed. Level 5 will come long after SDCs have taken over most driving. It's simply not a requirement.
> 
> So, they couldn't even make it past the entire premise of their argument either because of ignorance or malice.


RamzFanz listen, I disagree with you but at least I respect you more than the Tomato. Probably because he's a punk kid and you seem like a mature adult.

But I just don't believe what you say is going to happen. Now, instead of going back and forth telling each other "you're dumb... no you're dumb... no you're dumb... etc" lets just wait, see what happens and take it from there.

Is that fair?


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> https://medium.com/@parismarx/the-driverless-revolution-isnt-coming-anytime-soon-fdf569cd6c6f
> 
> We've all heard the story at some point in the past few years. The tech and auto industries are on the cusp of rolling out vehicles that can drive themselves and will forever transform the way we move. We'll be able to summon driverless pods that will whisk us to our destinations, making personal vehicles unnecessary and freeing up all the space wasted on parking to be used for parks and public gathering spaces - or so they tell us.
> 
> ...


So that Waymobile was driving around looking for a rider? I would like to follow one for a day to see how well they handle LA traffic.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

goneubering said:


> So that Waymobile was driving around looking for a rider? I would like to follow one for a day to see how well they handle LA traffic.


I don't know what it was doing but it was being driven by a guy. the sensors were on as they are noticeably loud. i suspect they were just doing a little test run in the rain to gather data.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

iheartuber said:


> RamzFanz listen, I disagree with you but at least I respect you more than the Tomato. Probably because he's a punk kid and you seem like a mature adult.


"Mature" might be overly generous.


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