# This will be an epic ipo



## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

Failure that is

https://www.wsj.com/articles/doordash-sets-ipo-terms-pushing-valuation-above-25-billion-11606747049


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## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

Some morons will still buy it.

Right 
@ftupelo


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## The Jax (Apr 17, 2018)

Juggalo9er said:


> Failure that is
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/doordash-sets-ipo-terms-pushing-valuation-above-25-billion-11606747049


I have an MBA and my series 65. I am not only an active driver. With that said, investor talk around investment world is predicting that DoorDash is going to push stock on contractors. Second prediction is the stock will be worth half of the IPO in one year and then they will look to the contract drivers to escape the black hole they are falling into. With a company like DoorDash and my investment experience, I can bet that the company's investment advisors are advising against going public as when they do that, they loose control. The shareholders and market fluctuation dictate what happens to the company. With such a volatile market DD bases its key income in, that is a very stupid idea. Sounds more like the big whigs are trying to get investors to pay themselves and make themselves even richer than leaving the company before the bottom drops out. Mark my words.


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

I don't think you are wrong.

Door Dash isn't worth shit in the "real world"................but we're not in a real world anymore.


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## MontcoUberDriver (Aug 14, 2018)

If you read the pre-IPO statement they put out, they can't make a profit without continuing to screw drivers and restaurants. Sounds like a winner.


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## The Jax (Apr 17, 2018)

MontcoUberDriver said:


> If you read the pre-IPO statement they put out, they can't make a profit without continuing to screw drivers and restaurants. Sounds like a winner.


I mean that is pretty accurate. Like I said in my statement. When the stock is half the value in a year, they will look to hurt the drivers in some way to make up for the loss.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

KevinJohnson said:


> Some morons will still buy it.
> 
> Right
> @ftupelo


I'd have to really understand the unit economics and business model prior to investing. I assume you believe I would invest due to my prescient call on UBER, which is up 56% since I told folks to buy?

I'd recommend folks read the original post if they would like to see into the mind of a financial wizard. At first blush, I'm not seeing the types of drivers of value I see with UBER.

Frankie De La Creme gets bullish on UBER












The Jax said:


> I have an MBA and my series 65. I am not only an active driver. With that said, investor talk around investment world is predicting that DoorDash is going to push stock on contractors. Second prediction is the stock will be worth half of the IPO in one year and then they will look to the contract drivers to escape the black hole they are falling into. With a company like DoorDash and my investment experience, I can bet that the company's investment advisors are advising against going public as when they do that, they loose control. The shareholders and market fluctuation dictate what happens to the company. With such a volatile market DD bases its key income in, that is a very stupid idea. Sounds more like the big whigs are trying to get investors to pay themselves and make themselves even richer than leaving the company before the bottom drops out. Mark my words.


While I appreciate your perspective, I disagree with much of what you said. No one knows how the equity will perform over any period of time so I will recuse myself from opining on that topic.

Advisors advising against going public? While I understand they may have access to private investors willing to fund the business further, going public at a $32B valuation makes a lot of sense on all fronts: give liquidity to current employees and investors, raise $2.54B of growth capital to the balance sheet, access to capital markets for both debt and equity, public equity as a currency for acquisitions, etc. Further, IPO markets are open and frothy - you hit the bid when you get that combination. You especially hit that bid when you are benefitting from tailwinds (covid accelerating shift to delivery) and numbers look good.

Lose control? Did you read the piece? Founders will retain 69% voting share.

The company was founded 7 years ago. This is the natural evolution of a business of this size.


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## The Jax (Apr 17, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> I'd have to really understand the unit economics and business model prior to investing. I assume you believe I would invest due to my prescient call on UBER, which is up 56% since I told folks to buy?
> 
> I'd recommend folks read the original post if they would like to see into the mind of a financial wizard. At first blush, I'm not seeing the types of drivers of value I see with UBER.
> 
> ...


I have many years of business management from an owners prospective and went to school for this stuff. I also have investment experience. With that said, I happily concede this argument as I feel your advice is far superior to mine on this topic and subject matter. I do find it odd that someone of your level is even here but just like why I am here, to help advise the less informed. You know more than I do on this so carry on, my friend. And no I am not being sarcastic. Its more of a compliment and and a concession.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

The Jax said:


> I have many years of business management from an owners prospective and went to school for this stuff. I also have investment experience. With that said, I happily concede this argument as I feel your advice is far superior to mine on this topic and subject matter. I do find it odd that someone of your level is even here but just like why I am here, to help advise the less informed. You know more than I do on this so carry on, my friend. And no I am not being sarcastic. Its more of a compliment and and a concession.


Thank you for this. It is refreshing to see this type of response. Most folks tend to get defensive when their opinions are challenged. You are right though - I am highly educated, holding 3 degrees from this country's finest institutions. I also work for a white-shoe finance firm that invests in esoteric assets. I am also the founding member of the UBER Millionaire Drivers Club. Like you, I am here to educate the ants and elevate this profession. I drive UBER as a way to remain grounded in my solidly middle-class upbringing.


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## The Jax (Apr 17, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> Thank you for this. It is refreshing to see this type of response. Most folks tend to get defensive when their opinions are challenged. You are right though - I am highly educated, holding 3 degrees from this country's finest institutions. I also work for a white-shoe finance firm that invests in esoteric assets. I am also the founding member of the UBER Millionaire Drivers Club. Like you, I am here to educate the ants and elevate this profession. I drive UBER as a way to remain grounded in my solidly middle-class upbringing.


Thats very noble.

After I got my MBA, I decided to become a consultant in the food industry as well as develop delivery systems. I have a BA in accounting in addition. So that helps me with looking at client's books and advising. Hence, the Series 65. Most of my work deals with restaurant implementation and operations in addition to delivery system development. I know I could of went a different route and work for some big company as a slave and make a ton of more money. But I like to work very long hours under my terms while also having the freedom of taking off when I need to or want to. I started as a delivery driver when I was a 16yo and worked my way up yo running restaurants for owners all through college and then my career. More from an ownership standpoint than a general manager. Those guys are still ants, no matter how you look at it.

I am here because I am also an active driver on all the apps and want t help.


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## UberBastid (Oct 1, 2016)

The Jax said:


> I have an MBA and my series 65. I am not only an active driver. With that said, investor talk around investment world is predicting that DoorDash is going to push stock on contractors. Second prediction is the stock will be worth half of the IPO in one year and then they will look to the contract drivers to escape the black hole they are falling into. With a company like DoorDash and my investment experience, I can bet that the company's investment advisors are advising against going public as when they do that, they loose control. The shareholders and market fluctuation dictate what happens to the company. With such a volatile market DD bases its key income in, that is a very stupid idea. Sounds more like the big whigs are trying to get investors to pay themselves and make themselves even richer than leaving the company before the bottom drops out. Mark my words.


Sounds like a great 'covered-call' stock.


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## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

The world changes and so does the market. Rules that applied 30 years ago are long outdated so we have to adapt and change with the times. Well understood.

However, all these gigs make me laugh when I think back to the 80's when I was getting my MBA in Finance. Corporate Financial structures and market valuations basis today would be foreign if presented in the 80's. I used to have to provide sector and individual corporate financial analysis submissions to my professor every week. I could just see the look on old Professor McLellans face if I presented a Financial Analysis on DoorDash (or Uber/Lyft) and suggested a market valuation of 32B.

Yes sir that's right they have never been profitable.
Yes sir that's right there is no short term profitable outlook.
Yes sir that's right other than cash they have very small assets in comparison.
Yes sir that's right they burn through piles of cash.
His last question would have been, what is the internet and what are apps? Man have times changed :roflmao:


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## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

Seamus said:


> The world changes and so does the market. Rules that applied 30 years ago are long outdated so we have to adapt and change with the times. Well understood.
> 
> However, all these gigs make me laugh when I think back to the 80's when I was getting my MBA in Finance. Corporate Financial structures and market valuations basis today would be foreign if presented in the 80's. I used to have to provide sector and individual corporate financial analysis submissions to my professor every week. I could just see the look on old Professor McLellans face if I presented a Financial Analysis on DoorDash (or Uber/Lyft) and suggested a market valuation of 32B.
> 
> ...


Very clearly explained. Poor Frankie has no clue.

@ftupelo


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

KevinJohnson said:


> Very clearly explained. Poor Frankie has no clue.
> 
> @ftupelo


I somewhat agree with @Seamus and somewhat disagree. Folks are valuing certain businesses (read Saas) in ways that may not have made a lot of sense back in the 80's, but Michael Mauboussin has done some interesting work on intangible assets that I think apply to software businesses.

Fundamentally valuation is still done and thought about in the same way - the present value of future cash flows. All of the characteristics of the business that Seamus describes are true about the company as of today. However, they aren't necessarily true 10 or 20 years out. A lot of very smart folks have models that show them the company is worth $32B. Those models are based on assumptions, which by definition means there are many unknown factors. Perhaps their assumptions are correct and the company is worth $32B and perhaps their assumptions are wrong and the company is worth vastly more or less.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

I think they are pushing an IPO in order to bail out and run like hell.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> I think they are pushing an IPO in order to bail out and run like hell.


Who is "they"? It's fairly typical for mgmt. and early investors to take chips off the table in an IPO. Mgmt. needs to diversify their personal wealth away from just the company and early investors are always looking for an exit at some point.


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## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

ftupelo said:


> but Michael Mauboussin has done some interesting work on intangible assets that I think apply to software businesses.


Wrong Frankie, this isn't Freshman business class. 
The UE/DD software makes a poor asset: 
#1 it will quickly become outdated and stale
#2 a small group of programmers in India can replicate it with minimal work.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

KevinJohnson said:


> Wrong Frankie, this isn't Freshman business class.
> The UE/DD software makes a poor asset:
> #1 it will quickly become outdated and stale
> #2 a small group of programmers in India can replicate it with minimal work.


Aren't you the Churl who was dead wrong about my UBER call and made the remarks below? Imagine believing software is the valuable asset - can those programmers in India give you the user base necessary to make the marketplace work? Can they provide a deep pool of capital necessary to set the flywheel in motion?

"No. Absolutely ridiculous to even suggest investing in Uber, a company with massive losses but millions in bonuses for the CEO."

"Going to change my answer. @ftupelo Uber is an excellent opportunity I highly recommend YOU immediately invest $250,000 in Uber TODAY. Do not wait, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. For other reading, this advice only applies to @ftupelo"

Please note that UBER is trading at all-time highs - now at $53, up from $33 when Brass made his bullish call.


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## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

ftupelo said:


> Aren't you the Churl who was dead wrong about my UBER call and made the remarks below? Imagine believing software is the valuable asset - can those programmers in India give you the user base necessary to make the marketplace work? Can they provide a deep pool of capital necessary to set the flywheel in motion?
> 
> "No. Absolutely ridiculous to even suggest investing in Uber, a company with massive losses but millions in bonuses for the CEO."
> 
> ...


Yes Kurt Halfyard that was me.

#fakefrankie


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

KevinJohnson said:


> Some morons will still buy it.
> 
> Right
> @ftupelo


@KevinJohnson is dead wrong again. Priced higher than anticipated and has ripped 75% out of the gates. Let's hope he didn't have a short position on.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

ftupelo said:


> @KevinJohnson is dead wrong again. Priced higher than anticipated and has ripped 75% out of the gates. Let's hope he didn't have a short position on.


Give it time


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> I think they are pushing an IPO in order to bail out and run like hell.


Covid
Is a Delivery Companys WET DREAM.

IT WONT LAST FOREVER.( i hope)

Right Now
Is Peak.


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