# Wall St is figuring out that Uber is in serious trouble



## AmeliaIslandUber (Jul 31, 2015)

Couple of great articles here.

http://observer.com/2015/11/westlake-financial-ubers-shady-new-partner/
http://observer.com/2015/09/uber-meets-taxis-immovable-object-market-equilibrium/

Here's a great quote from one of them,

Uber's own study, delivered earlier this year, revealed a 45% attrition rate among UberX drivers active for 12 months - and an extrapolated rate that suggests a 60% attrition rate after 16 months.

Because Uber is having trouble retaining drivers, it is forced to recruit from the bottom of the socioeconomic stratum​
Basically what it boils down to is the rider market is saturated and most of Uber's efforts are going into recruiting more suckers to replace the drivers being lost to attrition. The costs of recruiting and vetting so many new drivers are so high that they had to double the safe rider fee in most markets.

The solution is simple. Take care of and retain the good drivers that they already have. Cut back the recruiting, cutting acquisition costs and give that extra dollar to the drivers. Another thing that would hardly dint demand and make a big difference for the drivers is doubling the time component of the fare, and, start the clock when the car arrives, not when the pax enter the vehicle. We all know that it's the short trips where they leave you sitting at the curb for every bit of 5 minute mandatory wait that are the profit killers. No sweat of Uber's back, but something that is driving the drivers away and impacting availability in areas that are endemic for it.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

This is great information. It looks like they have not disrupted the NYC taxi industry in any sort of meaningful way.


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## D Driver (Jan 25, 2015)

Interesting, wonder what the rate of drivers leaving in London is. A lot of driver took 3 year leases particularly on the Exec level, black in the US and they will be runnig out in the next 18 months to 2 years. Drivers are being smashed by over supply so no one can save to replace their car let alone any other bills like insurance, $4-6000 per year. 5 minute pick up waits are ok, immediate pick ups mean for more than 16 hours of the 24 hour day there are far too many drivers. No chance to cover 607 sq miles of London with a driver on every corner with any driver making money. Need to drop 1/3 of the worst drivers ( London built for horse and cart and not for cars is hard to drive so need experience), and cap it at that level. Drivers will make money service will go up as drivers will try harder and customers will be returning ones as mostly their wait will be short and the experience better.#Logic


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## melxjr (Sep 10, 2015)

Totally brother, Uber needs to realize a positive sustained growth will net their worth more. Instead, they're pure greed and have forgotten loyalty and consistent business is best. You've pointed out all the economics they can change to flip their ROI around. They will, we just will suffer until change is to come.


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## haji (Jul 17, 2014)

Increase rates = driver retention


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## AmeliaIslandUber (Jul 31, 2015)

melxjr said:


> Totally brother, Uber needs to realize a positive sustained growth will net their worth more. Instead, they're pure greed and have forgotten loyalty and consistent business is best. You've pointed out all the economics they can change to flip their ROI around. They will, we just will suffer until change is to come.


Travis has his head so far up in the clouds that he's not realizing that the tires are slowly going flat under him.

On demand efficient delivery of everything, pooling cars, endless trips, driverless cars, a world were people no longer need to own a car. All very cool. Completely revolutionize the transportation infrastructure globally and, yeah, you might have the first $1 Trillion company.

Driverless cars are 10 years away and in the mean time they have a huge attrition problem with the real people providing their own capital asset and labor to make this work. The problem is simple. The ROI for the drivers in terms of time, expense and depreciation is insufficient in most markets. It takes some time for most people to figure this out, but eventually they do and drop out.

The solution is simple and one that every other company would have focused on immediately. Recognize who your star producers are and shift all that money that they are spending on recruitment incentives and put it in their pockets. Retention problem solved. Tires reinstalled.


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## melxjr (Sep 10, 2015)

AmeliaIslandUber said:


> Travis has his head so far up in the clouds that he's not realizing that the tires are slowly going flat under him.
> 
> On demand efficient delivery of everything, pooling cars, endless trips, driverless cars, a world were people no longer need to own a car. All very cool. Completely revolutionize the transportation infrastructure globally and, yeah, you might have the first $1 Trillion company.
> 
> ...


I like it, Uber also hasn't fully calculated the cost of driverless cars. They would take on every expense there is.


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## XUberMike (Aug 2, 2015)

haji said:


> Increase DRIVER rates (not SRF)= driver retention=HIGHER UBER PROFITIBILITY


Slight tweek


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## D Driver (Jan 25, 2015)

Can u imagine the state of the driverless cars on the night circuit? Puke, piss, worse... Vandalism. Who wants to get in a car with no driver with Xmas party season at 2am? Disaster


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

AmeliaIslandUber said:


> Couple of great articles here.
> 
> http://observer.com/2015/11/westlake-financial-ubers-shady-new-partner/


The author Lawrence Meyers is Forum Member LMeyers. I've compiled a thread of his articles:

*Lawrence Meyers' Articles on Uber*


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## Vanstaal (Nov 25, 2015)

D Driver said:


> Can u imagine the state of the driverless cars on the night circuit? Puke, piss, worse... Vandalism. Who wants to get in a car with no driver with Xmas party season at 2am? Disaster


I won't see it happening anytime soon. Its a pure marketing bs


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## ElectricEliminator (May 15, 2015)

This article does cherry pick a bit, it doesn't mention that Uber's real value lies in the suburbs and other under served areas that either don't have the ridiculously intricate infrastructure that the NYC taxi industry does, or the cabbies refuse to go there, or charge exorbitant fees and rates to do so (And then piss and moan when an UberX takes a fare right from under their nose). If Uber was actively trying to murder the Taxi industry in NYC, why would UberT exist? Also, the Taxi industry, as well as all Hospitality and Service industries are known for a high turnover rate, especially in drivers who are not looking to, or cannot buy a medallion, which is basically every non medallion owning driver in NYC at the moment. Uber's attrition rate is meaningless without putting it in context with Taxi drivers. Not to mention, it's a very small sample size we're dealing with and will most likely normalize over a decade or so.


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## Luberon (Nov 24, 2014)

Wake me up when uber starts giving 2 cents about having good drivers.


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## Vanstaal (Nov 25, 2015)

Luberon said:


> Wake me up when uber starts giving 2 cents about having good drivers.


Invest your time and your skills with a company which will reward you better.


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## itsablackmarket (May 12, 2015)

Those driverless cars are going to get their tires slashed, wheels stolen, wipers stolen, anything that can be stolen will be. The stereos will be like headphones at a Barnes and Nobles, blown. Fun times for Uber and the pax.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

Other than when it is raining, I (like millions of others) have always found it quite easy to get a cab in NYC.

Uber does have an advantage when it is raining in NYC (for the passenger). As most know, it's very difficult to find an unoccupied cab in NYC when it is raining. But this advantage for the rider actually is not an advantage for the Uber driver who has to fight the traffic, arrive at the destination, find a pick up point to "stand" the Uber, find the rider out of thousands of people and wait.

Every cab is pretty much occupied when it is raining so there isn't any real business being taken from the traditional cabs at that point.

Bottom line, for most NYC local trips, it's much quicker to get a regular cab in NYC. Riders don't have to wait more than a minute or two because cabs are everywhere. Cabs don't have surge pricing. Cabs have meters that are in full view of the rider and show the exact fare as it is being calculated. There are no incidents of "sticker shock" for the rider after the ride.

So what first appeared to be the "golden goose" for Uber in NYC, simply does not work as well as a traditional cab because of the dense population, traffic and abundance of traditional marked cabs. The numbers in the article show that the NYC Uber drivers found this out.

If you look at the picture, you will see lots of yellow cabs in NYC. They are very easy to spot and hail.


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## Papa (May 14, 2015)

chi1cabby said:


> The author Lawrence Meyers is Forum Member LMeyers. I've compiled a thread of his articles:
> 
> *Lawrence Meyers' Articles on Uber*


chi1cabby you are a gem


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## FlDriver (Oct 16, 2015)

AmeliaIslandUber said:


> Because Uber is having trouble retaining drivers, it is forced to recruit from the bottom of the socioeconomic stratum​


Really? I thought most Uber drivers were $300 an hour attorneys and consultants trying to make a few extra bucks.

All you have to do is look at the fares and understand economics 101, that Uber can't pay a driver more than the driver generates in fares.

It's an entry-level job, so what part of the "socioeconomic stratum" would you expect drivers to come from?


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## Papa (May 14, 2015)

Bob Reynolds said:


> Other than when it is raining, I (like millions of others) have always found it quite easy to get a cab in NYC.
> 
> Uber does have an advantage when it is raining in NYC (for the passenger). As most know, it's very difficult to find an unoccupied cab in NYC when it is raining. But this advantage for the rider actually is not an advantage for the Uber driver who has to fight the traffic, arrive at the destination, find a pick up point to "stand" the Uber, find the rider out of thousands of people and wait.
> 
> ...


I talk to my Pax as much as possible. Every Pax that travels to NYC tells me they use Taxis because it is too difficult to wait on Uber... I'm also beginning to hear that the quality of Uber Cars is beginning to decline...


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

FlDriver said:


> It's an entry-level job, so what part of the "socioeconomic stratum" would you expect drivers to come from?












In 2012, 39.4 percent of Americans between 25 and 64 had at least a two-year college degree.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown...ses-paying-degrees-tops-financial-challenges/

Uber Drivers:


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## Luberon (Nov 24, 2014)

chi1cabby said:


> View attachment 19069
> 
> 
> In 2012, 39.4 percent of Americans between 25 and 64 had at least a two-year college degree.
> ...


 Now it is unlikely that uber sustains such a highly educated driver base. Until they decide to release more recent data, one can only guess based on anecdotal evidence that driver sociodemographic makeup is on a southward route.


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## Ubernice (Nov 6, 2015)

AmeliaIslandUber said:


> Couple of great articles here.
> 
> http://observer.com/2015/11/westlake-financial-ubers-shady-new-partner/
> http://observer.com/2015/09/uber-meets-taxis-immovable-object-market-equilibrium/
> ...


One article more one article less; when a company like us in revolutioning one industry with disruptive technology always going to be somebody trying to criticize and never going to recognize the nice and affordable service we arre providing to our communities
Lol


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## eyewall (Sep 6, 2015)

If they stop with the fare cuts they would retain more good drivers.


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## UberEddie2015 (Nov 2, 2015)

If we cannot make much money driving older used vehicles you think new driverless vehicles will make money. Driverless vehicles are for VC that are not thinking this all the way thru. Now let me see, I am almost out of gas. Who is going to pump the gas into the tank. The pax. It is a pipe dream. Just a way to hype the company. Hear these words. SRF and percentage of Ubers take will rise. Rates will not raise. And when and if rates rise the take will be so high it will not matter.


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## Kori (Nov 18, 2015)

AmeliaIslandUber said:


> Couple of great articles here.
> 
> http://observer.com/2015/11/westlake-financial-ubers-shady-new-partner/
> http://observer.com/2015/09/uber-meets-taxis-immovable-object-market-equilibrium/
> ...


Great info thanks! I think you'll like what we are building, check it out and ask me anything www.tryrider.com


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## UberEddie2015 (Nov 2, 2015)

nice. but to limited of a market. when your in atlanta post in the atlanta section.


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## 60000_TaxiFares (Dec 3, 2015)

chi1cabby said:


> View attachment 19069
> 
> 
> In 2012, 39.4 percent of Americans between 25 and 64 had at least a two-year college degree.
> ...


Oh my.... once again 50%? of Uber drivers have a 4 yr? college degree.... and perhaps $35,000 in student debt. You can listen to older folks in their 60's-90's describe working their way thru Yale, Princeton , Wharton , etc flipping burgers.

This scam from the mid 80's on , of "cheap" student loans has run the cost up of learning the same Shakespeare and Calculus , unchanged for hundreds of years up tenfold.

Your problems aren't with this dopey company Uber. They are with yourselves and the political situation in this country. You worry about giving good customer service. I'll crash a bank and almost take the entire economic system with it and collect my 100 million in "fees". Better yet, I'll still be there 8 years later for part II .

CC <-- I hope the # of you trying to payoff those jackass professors' retirement programs for the next 20 years of your life is at a minimum


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## bobby747 (Dec 29, 2015)

cabs in nyc are alot better than phila 100% better


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## JuanIguana (Nov 24, 2015)

60000_TaxiFares said:


> Oh my.... once again 50%? of Uber drivers have a 4 yr? college degree.... and perhaps $35,000 in student debt. You can listen to older folks in their 60's-90's describe working their way thru Yale, Princeton , Wharton , etc flipping burgers.
> 
> This scam from the mid 80's on , of "cheap" student loans has run the cost up of learning the same Shakespeare and Calculus , unchanged for hundreds of years up tenfold.
> 
> ...


wtf???


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## MakeMoreCash (Jan 21, 2016)

FlDriver said:


> Really? I thought most Uber drivers were $300 an hour attorneys and consultants trying to make a few extra bucks.
> 
> All you have to do is look at the fares and understand economics 101, that Uber can't pay a driver more than the driver generates in fares.
> 
> It's an entry-level job, so what part of the "socioeconomic stratum" would you expect drivers to come from?


Drivers would generate more money if Uber didn't keep lowering the rates and adding more drivers.Drivers don't set rates,Uber does.Its not entry level job when people of all age group drive.You argument about "Socioeconomic stratum"do not pass the smell test.


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## Thatendedbadly (Feb 8, 2016)

Bob Reynolds said:


> This is great information. It looks like they have not disrupted the NYC taxi industry in any sort of meaningful way.


They will never completely disrupt the NYC taxi system for one reason alone, taxis are ubiquitous in NYC, you walk out to the curb and flag down a taxi. Read the number recently, Uber gets about 10% of the overall fares in NYC on any given day. At least part of the Uber business model fails miserably in NYC, traditional taxis are easier to use there.


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## cferrel (Dec 14, 2015)

I got a part time job at HEB and im quite happy with it since it pays for my exam fees. Uber needs to limit driver supply and raise rates to retain the best drivers. Maybe a bonus system for high performance drivers plus raise rates to $2 a mile.


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