# How to Anticipate Surges



## Urging for Surging (Nov 15, 2017)

Chasing surges may make sense if the surge is high enough, close enough, and in a very specific locality, but most of the time, chasing surges is dumb. They typically evaporate before you can get there.

However, there is something you can do to anticipate surges. I've used this technique very sparingly, but when it works, it's exhilarating. It will probably only work in large metropolitan areas that are over-saturated with drivers and thus subject to surges based on driver supply. I've decided to illustrate my idea with the hope that it will be more easily understood. I use here three zones: the central zone, which represents a part of the city with high population density and high driver density. The east represents a place where, for whatever reason, there is random demand driven surge, ie, more riders suddenly want rides for some reason. This need not be a zone to the east of the central zone. It could be the west, south, or north. Similarly, I have drivers emptying out of the west, but it could be any zone which is where most drivers would empty out of in light of a surge. I hope this diagram makes sense.

You know, it has a good analogy with the stock market. The irrational people sell whenever there's a downturn. The ordinary people do nothing, and the smart people like Warren Buffet specifically choose to buy stocks that are plummeting with the knowledge that they can buy them at a discount and that they will soon go up again. This notion of countering the irrational masses can allow one to become a billionaire, or, in our case, maybe get a 20% higher fare rate.


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## steveK2016 (Jul 31, 2016)

Ive never once seen a surge cause a "back surge" from where the drivers fled to chase a surge. Not once. This is a good theory and may be true on paper but I have never seen it in application.

Surges happen more due to increase in demand versus decrease of supply. Just because theres a decrease in supply in West doesnt mean theres enough increase in demand in west to cause a surge.

I was a hardcore surger. Thats the only way to make money back in Atlanta because Select was dead. I had an advantage that most of you drivers didnt have:










I monitored surges all the time even when on trip with a second tablet. Ive never observed a back surge due to lower supply as you indicate in your post. Maybe it did happen but I never noticed, but as someone that monitors surges closely, it wasnt observable from my perspective.


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## Rakos (Sep 2, 2014)

I've always had good luck...

Covering areas that empty...

Due to surge drivers running...

Harder now with over saturation...

Rakos


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## MadTownUberD (Mar 11, 2017)

I've observed this in Madison. There might be a decent surge (with several minutes of staying power) at the West Town Mall or the Madison Marriott West, which attracts a couple/few drivers from downtown. Then it gets to commute time and a bunch of riders downtown decide they suddenly need to get to work, so downtown surges...but it wouldn't have if the drivers that chased the west side surge had stayed put.

So I'm not sure it makes sense to move in the opposite direction of the surge, but if there are only a few drivers in an area that's likely to surge soon (like downtown/campus during the morning commute), it makes sense to stay put while other drivers chase a surge that's 10 minutes away.

I would tend to think this works in markets where there are NOT a lot of drivers, so that a couple/few can impact surge greatly.


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## joebo1963 (Dec 21, 2016)

I agree back surge happens here in South Florida too when drivers flee an area searching surge elsewhere. I just sit and wait offline lol. 

Also surging a frequent surge area I wait paciently offline. And I’m not the only one. I watch all the ants evaporate and then the surge hits and instantly 4 or more cars appears so others are sitting watching and waiting. I’d rather do less rides a day for less miles but all surge


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## MadTownUberD (Mar 11, 2017)

By the way, this OP is an outstanding example of exactly what to post on forms. Good job, OP!!!


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## Chris Verdi (Nov 7, 2017)

steveK2016 said:


> Ive never once seen a surge cause a "back surge" from where the drivers fled to chase a surge. Not once. This is a good theory and may be true on paper but I have never seen it in application.
> 
> Surges happen more due to increase in demand versus decrease of supply. Just because theres a decrease in supply in West doesnt mean theres enough increase in demand in west to cause a surge.
> 
> ...


How do you get uber to work in landscape mode?


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## steveK2016 (Jul 31, 2016)

Chris Verdi said:


> How do you get uber to work in landscape mode?


Rotation Control App in the Play Store.

It does cut off the destination time in the older versions. Not sure how it looks now but there is a possibility of items appearing cutt off on the ping request screen.


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## Chris Verdi (Nov 7, 2017)

steveK2016 said:


> Rotation Control App in the Play Store.
> 
> It does cut off the destination time in the older versions. Not sure how it looks now but there is a possibility of items appearing cutt off on the ping request screen.


Nice ty for this.


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## cratter (Sep 16, 2017)

steveK2016 said:


> Surges happen more due to increase in demand versus decrease of supply.


Agreed...driver shortage surge is a pretty rare thing. It's more of a few people in the same area or building. You can be one of two cars in the entire "city" (suburb) where the work is stacked pings but no surge.


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## steveK2016 (Jul 31, 2016)

cratter said:


> Agreed...driver shortage surge is a pretty rare thing. It's more of a few people in the same area or building. You can be one of two cars in the entire "city" (suburb) where the work is stacked pings but no surge.


Bingo. The problem with the OPs diagram is that he's assuming that 6 cars is considered normal in any part of the city, so when it drops to 2 cars, it should surge. Problem is, that all parts of the city is actually just over saturated by 4 extra drivers and when it dips down to 2, that's actually just normal supply. So without extra demand, it's not going to cause a back surge.


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## hulksmash (Apr 26, 2016)

Where I live there are major music festivals a few times a year, that end at bar close time. This causes higher than normal surge at the nearby bars due to all drivers flocking to the concert. 

Demand at the bars have actually decreased due to the surge spillage from the festival, since they are not as prepared to pay the higher rates the concert goers are.

As a result, you will still get no pings from the bars, since they are waiting for it to go down. So Uber is forced to lower rates there so bar hoppers will wanna order, and that’s when you start to get low surge pings while sitting in a sea of red. 

As a driver I feel they should pay more if they are pulling drivers from a busy area. As a rider I feel I shouldn’t have to pay more since there isn’t as much demand where I’m ordering from.


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## Urging for Surging (Nov 15, 2017)

MadTownUberD said:


> I've observed this in Madison. There might be a decent surge (with several minutes of staying power) at the West Town Mall or the Madison Marriott West, which attracts a couple/few drivers from downtown. Then it gets to commute time and a bunch of riders downtown decide they suddenly need to get to work, so downtown surges...but it wouldn't have if the drivers that chased the west side surge had stayed put.
> 
> So I'm not sure it makes sense to move in the opposite direction of the surge, but if there are only a few drivers in an area that's likely to surge soon (like downtown/campus during the morning commute), it makes sense to stay put while other drivers chase a surge that's 10 minutes away.
> 
> I would tend to think this works in markets where there are NOT a lot of drivers, so that a couple/few can impact surge greatly.


If there are few drivers and many riders, then the drivers will be given fare after fare without having time to check the map. Your assumption that it's easier to witness back surges when Uber drivers are spread thin seems wrong because of this. If there is a surplus of drivers and drivers aren't receiving fares, then they're more likely to dead head to place where they can find them. The effect of them doing this won't be felt immediately but over time as residual drivers who don't chase the surge are soaked up and their replacements aren't present. In order for supply to be elastic or respond a lot relative to demand, supply must be higher than demand overall. In order for supply to retract a lot, there has to be surplus of it to begin with. If there is high demand relative to supply, then virtually all surges will be demand-driven.


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## MadTownUberD (Mar 11, 2017)

Interesting. I think we're saying the same thing...I didn't mean to imply there were few drivers but a lot of riders.

What I seem to witness, at least in the early mornings, is low Supply (drivers) and low demand (riders), but supply exceeding demand. I'll see 3-4 cars downtown and watch them on the pax app, and they "blink out" (accept a request) relatively infrequently. The surges are small, and not super sustained, but the ones in outlying areas seem to be driven by maybe 1-3 requesters in an area with NO drivers. So eventually some of the downtown cars chase that mini surge in the outlying area...and then the demand downtown suddenly picks up which causes it to surge, but it may not have if the cars had stayed put.

Then of course there is the situation of a fake surge which is absolutely supply driven. The app wants more drivers in an area so it "surges".

The blood red surges are really rare where I drive and are only present when demand totally outstrips supply, like when everyone is trying to get from hotels to a football game or vice versa. Then the drivers who are actually there are hopping like madmen, and it doesn't matter what they do...the surge is solid.


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## filupsdad (Oct 4, 2017)

joebo1963 said:


> I agree back surge happens here in South Florida too when drivers flee an area searching surge elsewhere. I just sit and wait offline lol.
> 
> Also surging a frequent surge area I wait paciently offline. And I'm not the only one. I watch all the ants evaporate and then the surge hits and instantly 4 or more cars appears so others are sitting watching and waiting. I'd rather do less rides a day for less miles but all surge


Very Smart, and you know what's up!


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## kaycee (Jun 23, 2017)

There are different types of surge zones. Some are consistent each day at a period of time. Others are more random.

The strategy I think is to locate at overlap areas...


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## MadTownUberD (Mar 11, 2017)

kaycee said:


> There are different types of surge zones. Some are consistent each day at a period of time. Others are more random.
> 
> The strategy I think is to locate at overlap areas...


Excellent point. Flexibility. Strategically position yourself so that you can move into a high demand area quickly.


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## Rakos (Sep 2, 2014)

MadTownUberD said:


> Excellent point. Flexibility. Strategically position yourself so that you can move into a high demand area quickly.


Not sure if the surge...

Has totally become bogus...

Or that too many Ubers...

Has screwed up the algo...

Butt...

surge zones are all crap now...!!!

Rakos















And a....


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## MadTownUberD (Mar 11, 2017)

There is currently a 5x surge in downtown Madison due to snow and morning commutes. But some of us have day jobs.


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## Julescase (Mar 29, 2017)

I really think there are too many clueless ants out there who see a 1.3 - 1.4 surge and will eagerly and swiftly rush to accept those pings rather than allowing a surge to grow. I can't tell you how many rideshare drivers I see in Los Angeles - it's more than 50% of all cars on the road - and they're just out there driving at base rates for 12-14 hours a day rather than working with their fellow drivers to create surges, which would allow them to work half the hours for more money.

People don't seem to realize that driving around with their app on non-stop all day kills any hope of surge.

I knew this 6 months before ever signing up for Uber - I was reading this site for driving tips and trying to gain as much knowledge as possible months before actually driving. I really wish others would spend at least a little time trying to educate themselves. It would truly benefit all of us.


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## Rakos (Sep 2, 2014)

Mindless driving...

Isn't that the domain of...

Old monkeys and blondes...8>O

Or...maybe it was brunettes....8>)

Rakos


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