# Could it happen earlier than we thought? Tesla today became the world's most valuable automaker.



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Just today, Tesla overtook Toyota to become the world's most valuable carmaker.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/tesla-tops-toyota-to-become-largest-automaker-by-market-value.html
Tesla said their new cars have fully autonomous capability, their AI is developing at a stunning clip...

https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/t...-and-a-next-gen-chip-is-already-halfway-done/
Much talk has been related to such fully autonomous vehicles taking over the Uber/Taxi industry, and with it, Uber driver jobs. Personally, I think that our jobs are safe for a long long time, but as I read about the super fast increase in autonomous technology, it makes me wonder how long our jobs will be around.

Level 5 AI I think is still many years away, but the rapid rise of AI in companies like Tesla make me ponder...

The main issue with AI I think is in terms of city driving (as opposed to highway), and moral decisions... Like say an Uber driver has a pregnant passenger and someone jaywalks in front of him/her while the Uber driver has a green light. He/she does not have time to avoid the jaywalker and must choose between crashing into a concrete barrier or striking the jaywalker...

The aforementioned case is one that I saw on a PBS special about AI, and the problems it presents. The chief scientist said that the answer to the case was posed internationally to individual drivers by a poll, and interestingly the answers were divided by country (and not by gender, sex, race, etc.).

Once they work out the kinks, our roads may look a lot differently...

Isn't that just a daisy that Tesla overtook Toyota today?


----------



## Johnny Mnemonic (Sep 24, 2019)

Young Kim said:


> Isn't that just a daisy that Tesla overtook Toyota today?


Tesla didn't "overtake" Toyota. Tesla stock simply costs more than Toyota. Tesla's manufacturing is still a fraction of Toyota's.

Tesla hasn't made an annual profit in...EVER! Yet the degenerate gamblers daytraders have pumped all their poker/sports gambling money into the market so the price just keeps going up.

This isn't going to end well for retail traders. But then again, it never does.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...oom-similar-dot-com-bubble-2020-6-1029297045#


----------



## 25rides7daysaweek (Nov 20, 2017)

Young Kim said:


> Just today, Tesla overtook Toyota to become the world's most valuable carmaker.
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/tesla-tops-toyota-to-become-largest-automaker-by-market-value.html
> Tesla said their new cars have fully autonomous capability, their AI is developing at a stunning clip...
> ...


----------



## Jon Stoppable (Dec 11, 2019)

Young Kim said:


> Like say an Uber driver has a pregnant passenger and someone jaywalks in front of him/her while the Uber driver has a green light. He/she does not have time to avoid the jaywalker and must choose between crashing into a concrete barrier or striking the jaywalker...


Bear would gun the gas and take out the jaywalker, and deny responsibility for impregnating the female when the cops arrived!

This is like the opposite problem that humans have hitting bears. If you swerve around the bear and wreck your car, you aren't covered under the comprehensive, instead you have to pay the collision deductible. So the human hits the bear to save the thousand bucks


----------



## TheDevilisaParttimer (Jan 2, 2019)

I think confidence of Tesla/Musk to succeed is at an all time high following the space launch.

Couple that with Tesla releasing a futuristic truck we have sky high market validation. It will come back down then rise again, etc.


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

It is way overpriced, but if NKLA is valued at 22 billion , then TSLA is not overpriced.:smiles:
Hertz was valued around 700 million just few weeks back and they are bankrupt. :thumbdown: Elon has said multiple times that TSLA is overvalued.


----------



## AdAstra (Jun 26, 2020)

Elon is Edison, Henry Ford & JP Morgan rolled into One


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

Johnny Mnemonic said:


> Tesla didn't "overtake" Toyota. Tesla stock simply costs more than Toyota. Tesla's manufacturing is still a fraction of Toyota's.
> 
> Tesla hasn't made an annual profit in...EVER! Yet the degenerate gamblers daytraders have pumped all their poker/sports gambling money into the market so the price just keeps going up.
> 
> ...


This year they did. Most companies that are in similar space don't make money until a decade in

https://www.theverge.com/platform/a...inancial-results-elon-musk-coronavirus-profit


AdAstra said:


> Elon is Edison, Henry Ford & JP Morgan rolled into One


if this was true (I think he's more like Steve Jobs) then I guess I should ask where is jpmorgan chase today? Oh. Fortress balance sheet.


----------



## SHalester (Aug 25, 2019)

Johnny Mnemonic said:


> This isn't going to end well for retail traders.


that's kinda funny. All the folks who shorted Tesla? they kinda stepped in dog doo doo, yeah?

No matter if I hit the lotto I'd still go out and get a Model S. OR when it's time to trade in my wife's precious prius, try to convince her to get a Model Y.

Elon rocks, but he really shouldn't communicate when he's altered. Just saying.


----------



## TheDevilisaParttimer (Jan 2, 2019)

AdAstra said:


> Elon is Edison, Henry Ford & JP Morgan rolled into One


:roflmao: :roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao: I'm a fan of Musk but you give him entirely too much credit or is unfamiliar with some of these people.

Musk is a miniature Henry Ford and that's stretching it.


----------



## Johnny Mnemonic (Sep 24, 2019)

sellkatsell44 said:


> This year they did. Most companies that are in similar space don't make money until a decade in


ANNUAL profit, ANNUAL. And no, they've never done that. You can always cook the books with the payable/receivable ledgers to get a profitable quarter now and then. In the case of Q1 2020 it was done by selling regulatory credits worth $354 million.

And what "similar space" would that be? Are you one of those who thinks that Tesla is strictly a "technology" company, and therefore not subject to the realities of heavy manufacturing?

Disagree.



SHalester said:


> All the folks who shorted Tesla? they kinda stepped in dog doo doo, yeah?


Yep. Zero sympathy for people that get destroyed trading shorts, trading on margin, or trading futures. They're told the risks. They get burned, they can apply their own aloe vera.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

Johnny Mnemonic said:


> ANNUAL profit, ANNUAL. And no, they've never done that. You can always cook the books with the payable/receivable ledgers to get a profitable quarter now and then. In the case of Q1 2020 it was done by selling regulatory credits worth $354 million.
> 
> And what "similar space" would that be? Are you one of those who thinks that Tesla is strictly a "technology" company, and therefore not subject to the realities of heavy manufacturing?
> 
> ...


Yes they're more of a tech company. I can't say car...

so similar would be Amazon (aka was book store online).

and yes, it's the start but I guess I'm making a prediction for 2020 being THE year :smiles:

let's revisit on 1/1/2021


----------



## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

Johnny Mnemonic said:


> Tesla didn't "overtake" Toyota. Tesla stock simply costs more than Toyota. Tesla's manufacturing is still a fraction of Toyota's.
> 
> Tesla hasn't made an annual profit in...EVER! Yet the degenerate gamblers daytraders have pumped all their poker/sports gambling money into the market so the price just keeps going up.
> 
> ...


Absolutely nailed it. Way too many day traders out there who should have stuck with betting on sports.


----------



## Ubereater (Dec 25, 2015)

The world biggest EV manufacturer is BYD.
The funny thing is I've never met anyone who ever heard of their cars and I never heard anyone talk about BYD cars and how they are gonna save the planet.
Warren Buffet owns 25% of BYD stock.


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

AdAstra said:


> Elon is Edison, Henry Ford & JP Morgan rolled into One


Rather than any of the above six captains of the capital, I believe in time to come we will compare Elon Musk to P.T. Barnum, the incomparable showman of the mid-19th century.

In due course, Elon Musk's investors will inevitably come to understand and appreciate Barnum's famous phrase "There's a sucker born every minute".

.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)




----------



## Johnny Mnemonic (Sep 24, 2019)

Ubereater said:


> The world biggest EV manufacturer is BYD.
> The funny thing is I've never met anyone who ever heard of their cars and I never heard anyone talk about BYD cars and how they are gonna save the planet.
> Warren Buffet owns 25% of BYD stock.


The real reason that China loves Tesla is because now that the factory is in Shanghai the CCP can easily rip off all of Tesla's technology through espionage and give it to BYD. When BYD has left Tesla in the dust the CCP will shut down the Shanghai factory on some trumped-up charges and leave Elon to twist in the wind.
If I were going to invest in an EV stock it would be BYD.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

sellkatsell44 said:


> Yes they're more of a tech company. I can't say car...
> 
> so similar would be Amazon (aka was book store online).
> 
> ...


And I can't believe no one is talking about Shopify.

I am still kicking myself in the butt as I see it only climb higher and higher and &#129335;&#127995;‍♀


----------



## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

Most overpriced automaker is the correct term.


----------



## Johnny Mnemonic (Sep 24, 2019)

sellkatsell44 said:


> And I can't believe no one is talking about Shopify.
> 
> I am still kicking myself in the butt as I see it only climb higher and higher and &#129335;&#127995;‍♀


FOMO is a hell of a drug


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

Johnny Mnemonic said:


> FOMO is a hell of a drug


Lmao, this is exactly what my colleague said.

but I thought they were overpriced pre Walmart and chipotle deal and it's been crazy last few weeks. Haven't made any trades at all.

I didn't want to just buy on a whim but you're right, a bit fomo hitting now. If I was just reckless and brought @ 700 I would be sitting prettier rn.

oh Well. &#128513;


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

AdAstra said:


> Elon is Edison, Henry Ford & JP Morgan rolled into One


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> Tesla said their new cars have fully autonomous capability, their AI is developing at a stunning clip...
> ...
> ...


I'd like make an assertion about AI, but first would like to assert that we tend to think of Tesla as a car company. A few less think of Tesla as a technology company. Both statements are literally true, but if you characterize Tesla as an _energy_ company then you are being more inclusive about Tesla's main product; BATTERIES. With batteries Tesla powers its cars, its Powerwall line of consumer energy storage devices, it's Powerpack line of industrial energy storage devices, and its newer Megapack line of utility scale energy storage devices. Throw in the solar side; solar panels and solar roof tiles, and you bring into focus the stated purpose of the company; "_Tesla's_ mission is to _accelerate_ the world's transition to _sustainable energy_".

Elon recently put it like this:
"The acceleration of sustainable energy is absolutely fundamental, because this is the next potential risk for humanity," Musk said. "So obviously, that is, by far and away, the most important thing."










On that basis TSLA may be fairly valued. Maybe. On the other hand, the smartest person I know working in this space sees TSLA as going far higher.

---------------------------------
With regards to AI, I have to go against the current theme, which is that AI keeps getting better and better, and say this...

There is no such thing as artificial intelligence.

It doesn't exist yet. It's all still sophisticate algorithms stuffed with IF-THEN-DO statements. "AI" is the current world title holder for most misused term. If you carefully watch Chris Paine's documentary on AI, "Do You Trust This Computer?", you see a lot of people _talking_ about AI, but not actually demonstrating true AI. There are no computers actually thinking. Actually reasoning. Just some really cool advanced algorithms that are helping people in a variety of fields. Including programs so sophisticated they can now beat any human in the game of Chess, and several others.

I had an Uber passenger one time who worked in AI. With Musk. I had to ask him how close we are to true AI. His answer: "Fifty years". The marketing types have gotten a hold of the term AI and are having their way with it. They dilute it. They misuse it. They abuse it. They are pulling the wool over our eyes in order to remain competitive. Once one company claims AI, all must follow or get ploughed under. Don't buy it folks.

Take a look a the monkey in this hilarious video. He is smarter than the most advanced computer ever built...






Did you see how clever that monkey is? For example, when the rock she tendered failed to earn him as much "pay" as her counterpart in the adjacent cage he banged the rock against the wall to test if it was indeed a rock! She reasoned through the problem. NO ROBOT IS CAPABLE OF THAT YET. That monkey has a better chance of passing the Turing test than any robot to date.

Moral of the story: We can't program auto-pilot to anticipate every possible traffic scenario. Therefore, a truly safe autonomous vehicle is still far off in the future.

(link to full movie: Do You Trust This Computer?)


----------



## Launchpad McQuack (Jan 8, 2019)

_Tron_ said:


> That monkey has a better chance of passing the Turing test than any robot to date.


No it doesn't. There are countless chatbot programs out there that have a better chance of passing the Turing test than any monkey.

For those that are unfamiliar, the Turing test is a test that was proposed in the 1950's as a way to evaluate whether or not artificial intelligence has been achieved. The test involves two real humans (lets call them Mr. A and Mrs. B) and one machine. The machine is the subject of the test. Mr. A is allowed to communicate with both Mrs. B and the machine, but Mrs. B and the machine don't communicate with each other. All communication is done in text so that Mr. A does not see or hear the entity that he is communicating with. He only reads words on a screen. Mr. A is told that one of the entities that he is talking with is a real person and the other one is a machine. Mr. A is tasked with determining, by making conversation, which entity is a real person and which entity is a machine. If Mr. A is able to reliably make this determination successfully, then the machine fails the Turing test. If Mr. A is not able to make this determination reliably, then the machine passes the Turing test and is deemed to be intelligent.

The Turing test is, in my opinion, a highly flawed metric for artificial intelligence. It doesn't measure intelligence at all. It measures the ability to convincingly simulate human conversation. I think a monkey would definitely fail it. Chatbots are sometimes able to pass as human as it is, but that is mostly with people that are not aware that they exist and are not looking for them. If you sat Mr. A down and told him that one of the two is not a real human, I think Mr. A would be able to root out the chatbot fairly reliably. I think a chatbot has a better chance than the monkey of passing, though, just because it is designed to simulate human conversation. A legitimate intelligent alien lifeform that is capable of thought and reason and communication but not in a humanlike way would probably fail the Turing test. Heck, if Mr. A and Mrs. B are culturally similar and you took a third human being from a different culture (lets call her Miss C) and subjected Miss C to the Turing test, Miss C would probably fail........although I don't know that that would be a legitimate test. I think you are supposed to do the test multiple times filling in multiple different people for Mr. A and Mrs. B to show that the machine can reliably pass as human. That's beside the point, though.

The Turing test just isn't a good test, in my opinion. It tests the ability to mimic human conversation more than it tests intelligence.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Launchpad McQuack said:


> No it doesn't. There are countless chatbot programs out there that have a better chance of passing the Turing test than any monkey.
> 
> It measures the ability to convincingly simulate human conversation. I think a monkey would definitely fail it.


Of course a monkey would fail it. A monkey can't articluate in human language form. I was being sarcastic. Point being, the monkey in that video was behaving more rationally than some humans I've observed recently. ;>


----------



## Jon Stoppable (Dec 11, 2019)

Launchpad McQuack said:


> No it doesn't. There are countless chatbot programs out there that have a better chance of passing the Turing test than any monkey.


What about a bear?



_Tron_ said:


> There is no such thing as artificial intelligence.


This is true, these would all properly be called expert systems, but that doesn't have the appeal of a Skynet.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Insane, Tesla stock closed over $1500 today. My original post was when Tesla was at $1100. With so much wealth in their market cap, perhaps they can buy out many autonomous driving companies and accelerate the technology.


----------



## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

Johnny Mnemonic said:


> Tesla didn't "overtake" Toyota. Tesla stock simply costs more than Toyota.


@Young Kim Let me know when Telsa makes 10 million cars a year like Toyota currently does. Thanks.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

KevinJohnson said:


> @Young Kim Let me know when Telsa makes 10 million cars a year like Toyota currently does. Thanks.


I agree that Tesla is not in the same league as Toyota when it comes to making cars. I just am stunned as to its market capitalization in such a relatively short period of time.


----------



## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> . I just am stunned as to its market capitalization in such a relatively short period of time.


Market Capitalization doesn't mean as much as you think it does. It is an artificial number.

I have some Tulip bulbs for sale. You are the perfect buyer.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> Insane, Tesla stock closed over $1500 today. My original post was when Tesla was at $1100. With so much wealth in their market cap, perhaps they can buy out many autonomous driving companies and accelerate the technology.


Unfortunately, that _is_ insane. Tesla is going parabolic, and may will suffer an extreme price drop at some point. Can never say for sure, but the odds are not in favor of the stock holding these price levels. The thing is, if the stock does crash it could be years before it touches these price levels again.

A popular blogger who covers short selling appears to be stating that TSLA is in a short squeeze, which triggers a dramatic price increase as the shorts try to cover their positions by buying back the stock. I personally am convinced from looking at the numbers in detail early on in the new TSLA bull (when the stock dropped to $176 and then popped) that the leg up was definitely due to a short squeeze.

This is a great traders market. Not necessarily a great long term holders market.

https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/tesla-tsla-short-bet-bloodbath/
Primer on short selling:
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/09/learned-stop-worrying-tesla-shares-love-short-sellers-part-1/


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

KevinJohnson said:


> Market Capitalization doesn't mean as much as you think it does. It is an artificial number.
> 
> I have some Tulip bulbs for sale. You are the perfect buyer.


I disagree. Tesla stock may be in a bubble, but market capitalization is significant because it allows a company to purchase other companies with shares of stock instead of cash.


----------



## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> I disagree. Tesla stock may be in a bubble, but market capitalization is significant because it allows a company to purchase other companies with shares of stock instead of cash.


You assume the company actually owns shares of it's own stock.


----------



## Uber's Guber (Oct 22, 2017)

Young Kim said:


> I think that our jobs are safe for a long long time, but as I read about the super fast increase in autonomous technology, it makes me wonder how long our jobs will be around.


It's fun Ubering now & then, but I embrace technology first & foremost. I would never rely on a "job" as a Uber driver under any circumstance; if an autonomous vehicle doesn't eliminate these positions, some paxhole filing a false complaint will.
I look forward to the day when autonomous vehicles cover the earth, and that day will come.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

Young Kim said:


> Insane, Tesla stock closed over $1500 today. My original post was when Tesla was at $1100. With so much wealth in their market cap, perhaps they can buy out many autonomous driving companies and accelerate the technology.


They are one of the reasons I'm positive despite my etf/mf allowed in 401k is mostly neg (a couple are pos to be fair)... those are my limited choices but luckily I can have a trading part of the account under the umbrella that is currently making me pos over 50% but combined with my 401k which is also a lot more in $$ placed in.. I'm only 8%


----------



## Big Lou (Dec 11, 2019)

Isn't Elon Musk supporting Kanya West in his quest to be king of the world?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...-its-not-joe-biden-or-donald-trump-2020-07-05


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Uber's Guber said:


> It's fun Ubering now & then, but I embrace technology first & foremost. I would never rely on a "job" as a Uber driver under any circumstance; if an autonomous vehicle doesn't eliminate these positions, some paxhole filing a false complaint will.
> I look forward to the day when autonomous vehicles cover the earth, and that day will come.


It definitely will come, the question is whether it will happen sooner rather than later. At least "tipping" won't be an issue. I remember an "X-Files" episode where Mulder and Scully were chased down by some AI robot for a tip that they didn't leave.



KevinJohnson said:


> You assume the company actually owns shares of it's own stock.


In mergers and acquisitions (where it is a stock on stock deal), companies make a deal where the "buyer" company swaps shares for the "purchased" company if approved by the board of directors and major stockholders.



KevinJohnson said:


> Market Capitalization doesn't mean as much as you think it does. It is an artificial number.
> 
> I have some Tulip bulbs for sale. You are the perfect buyer.


I have never owned, or will I ever buy Tesla stock. It is way too volatile and overpriced. But I would never short sell it either. I do think that it is a big deal when a company as well known as Tesla has a market cap of 286 billion dollars and is rising fast. In this case Tesla can either use its stock to buy other companies or recruit employees with stock options with its inflated stock price. In the very long term, I think long term holders of Tesla will get burned though. Tesla could be like Cisco Systems or General Electric in the year 2000. In March 2000, Cisco stock was at 77.31. Today it is at 44.66, 20 years later. General Electric was around 60 dollars per share in August 2000. Today it is at 6.60 a share. I suspect Tesla will follow a similar trajectory.


----------



## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> In mergers and acquisitions (where it is a stock on stock deal), companies make a deal where the "buyer" company swaps shares for the "purchased" company if approved by the board of directors and major stockholders.


Thanks for explaining M&A. Did you copy this from Wiki?


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

KevinJohnson said:


> Thanks for explaining M&A. Did you copy this from Wiki?


Not from wiki, I read it on investopedia:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stock-swap.asp


_Tron_ said:


> I'd like make an assertion about AI, but first would like to assert that we tend to think of Tesla as a car company. A few less think of Tesla as a technology company. Both statements are literally true, but if you characterize Tesla as an _energy_ company then you are being more inclusive about Tesla's main product; BATTERIES. With batteries Tesla powers its cars, its Powerwall line of consumer energy storage devices, it's Powerpack line of industrial energy storage devices, and its newer Megapack line of utility scale energy storage devices. Throw in the solar side; solar panels and solar roof tiles, and you bring into focus the stated purpose of the company; "_Tesla's_ mission is to _accelerate_ the world's transition to _sustainable energy_".
> 
> Elon recently put it like this:
> "The acceleration of sustainable energy is absolutely fundamental, because this is the next potential risk for humanity," Musk said. "So obviously, that is, by far and away, the most important thing."
> ...


Thanks for that YouTube clip! It was so funny and awesome! I think monkeys are extremely intelligent beings.



Big Lou said:


> Isn't Elon Musk supporting Kanya West in his quest to be king of the world?
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...-its-not-joe-biden-or-donald-trump-2020-07-05


If Kanye West wins, then our country truly will become a reality TV show. I sort of think it would be fascinating if such a thing were to happen. I wonder what the rest of the world would think of us if such a thing occurred.


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Young Kim said:


> If Kanye West wins, then our country truly will become a reality TV show. I sort of think it would be fascinating if such a thing were to happen. I wonder what the rest of the world would think of us if such a thing occurred.


It's already a reality TV show. Something between Survivor, Big Brother and maybe Seinfeld.

.


----------



## Big Lou (Dec 11, 2019)

Young Kim said:


> Not from wiki, I read it on investopedia:
> 
> https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stock-swap.asp
> 
> ...


In all honesty......A West administration would be the continuation of the same Sh!t show we have now. 
In regards to the rest of the world..not much would change since we're already in the crapper as it is now with our past allies.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Big Lou said:


> In all honesty......A West administration would be the continuation of the same Sh!t show we have now.
> In regards to the rest of the world..not much would change since we're already in the crapper as it is now with our past allies.


Utterly shocking... Tesla stock hit a high of 1792 this morning. Unbelievable! When I wrote the original post, Tesla stock was around 1100 or so.


----------



## KevinJohnson (Mar 23, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> Utterly shocking... Tesla stock hit a high of 1792 this morning. Unbelievable! When I wrote the original post, Tesla stock was around 1170 or so.


When they report their next quarterly loss of millions of dollars the stock price will start falling.
You should spend more time following Profitable Businesses.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

sellkatsell44 said:


> Lmao, this is exactly what my colleague said.
> 
> but I thought they were overpriced pre Walmart and chipotle deal and it's been crazy last few weeks. Haven't made any trades at all.
> 
> ...


FOMO is scorching right now... Just fascinating. This may be the end of this bubble. I saw something like this back in 2000. Yahoo and other darling stocks were going up 100s of dollars per DAY.



KevinJohnson said:


> When they report their next quarterly loss of millions of dollars the stock price will start falling.
> You should spend more time following Profitable Businesses.


I won't buy this company at all, but it is sort of fun to watch a mania unfold. I didn't own, but I followed Bitcoin back in 2017. Tesla stock right now reminds me of Bitcoin 2017.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> Utterly shocking... Tesla stock hit a high of 1792 this morning. Unbelievable! When I wrote the original post, Tesla stock was around 1170 or so.


One report attributes the move to the chances of TSLA getting listed on the S&P. But as best I can tell, short interest rose to record high, and is now waning again. As best I understand the markets this is another classic short squeeze. TSLA turned up for some reason (take your pick) and as the shorts became buyers as they started backing out of their positions it became a rush for the exits, so the shorts themselves had a great deal to do with the price skyrocketing. Crowded trade!

Start looking for Tesla haters living in their vans under a freeway overpass.

History does say this will end badly for those buying in now. But you never know with Tesla.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

Young Kim said:


> FOMO is scorching right now... Just fascinating. This may be the end of this bubble. I saw something like this back in 2000. Yahoo and other darling stocks were going up 100s of dollars per DAY.
> 
> 
> I won't buy this company at all, but it is sort of fun to watch a mania unfold. I didn't own, but I followed Bitcoin back in 2017. Tesla stock right now reminds me of Bitcoin 2017.


The difference is what yahoo offered (tho great point, they shoot up 60% when listed).

im Waiting for a fall but I hope I'm not wrong...


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Johnny Mnemonic said:


> Tesla didn't "overtake" Toyota. Tesla stock simply costs more than Toyota. Tesla's manufacturing is still a fraction of Toyota's.
> 
> Tesla hasn't made an annual profit in...EVER! Yet the degenerate gamblers daytraders have pumped all their poker/sports gambling money into the market so the price just keeps going up.
> 
> ...


Even though they understood the risks, I sort of feel bad for those still short Tesla shares.

https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/articles/tesla-short-interest-declines-as-stock-hits-all-time-high
I feel bad also for popular and well known short seller Jim Chanos, who is still maximum short Tesla. This article was from April 2020 when Tesla shares were around 500.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/cha...short-tesla-even-with-drop-in-last-month.html


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

KevinJohnson said:


> When they report their next quarterly loss of millions of dollars the stock price will start falling.
> You should spend more time following Profitable Businesses.


You really can't blame anyone for being a Tesla skeptic. But you won't get much agreement from the folks who had the faith/vision to buy the early Model S and the buy the stock in double digits.

I think of the company as a Bumble bee. It theoretically shouldn't be able to fly.... yet it does. Tesla is basically doing the "impossible". That's certainly what Musk was told all along the process. So as the expression goes... "the improbable we do right away. The impossible take a little longer."

Of course for anyone with chutzpah now may be a great time to take a short term short trade. I'm gonna see if I can scrape up a couple of tennis balls.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

Young Kim said:


> Even though they understood the risks, I sort of feel bad for those still short Tesla shares.
> 
> https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/articles/tesla-short-interest-declines-as-stock-hits-all-time-high
> I feel bad also for popular and well known short seller Jim Chanos, who is still maximum short Tesla. This article was from April 2020 when Tesla shares were around 500.
> ...


The stakes are high. You either swing with a lot of $$$$ or you lose with a lot of $$$$$

High stakes. I never gamble with $ I don't have and can't afford to lose.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

sellkatsell44 said:


> The stakes are high. You either swing with a lot of $$$$ or you lose with a lot of $$$$$
> 
> High stakes. I never gamble with $ I don't have and can't afford to lose.


I think I just read that Tesla is now 10th in market cap. Just passed Proctor and Gamble which has been around (I think, am too lazy to check), forever. I also never gamble with money I can't afford to lose. Tesla is like a game with musical chairs, or no better than going to Las Vegas and putting everything on red.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> Even though they understood the risks, I sort of feel bad for those still short Tesla shares.


You may feel less sorry for Chanos if you care to look into some investigative reports by a guy going by the online handle of jessielivenomore (A word play on the renowned trader Jessie Livermore). Betting against a stock is one thing. But conspiring to spread false stories for the sole purpose of forcing the price of that stock down is quite another.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

_Tron_ said:


> You may feel less sorry for Chanos if you care to look into some reports buy a guy going by the online handle of jessielivenomore (A word play on the renowned trader Jessie Livermore). Betting against a stock is one thing. But conspiring to spread false stories for the sole purpose of forcing the price of that stock down is quite another.
> 
> View attachment 486247


Whoa! That lady he is with is hot. Is that his wife, girlfriend, or daughter?


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

It's not his wife. But there are a few shots of him with that lady in the top photo at differing venues. I was just wondering how willing those babes will be to get embraced by Chanos once he's on the road in an old Winnie...


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

Young Kim said:


> I think I just read that Tesla is now 10th in market cap. Just passed Proctor and Gamble which has been around (I think, am too lazy to check), forever. I also never gamble with money I can't afford to lose. Tesla is like a game with musical chairs, or no better than going to Las Vegas and putting everything on red.


PG is on my radar too since it's in everything and pays good dividend but I guess a bit too safe...


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

With the price so extreme I just _had_ to look at a play here. Even at these price levels PUT options (a leveraged bet that the stock price will drop) are ridiculously expensive. But I did find an October 16th $5 option (a bet the price will go to $5 before then) for 1 penny. These options are sold in lots of 100, and I bought 100 contracts. Thus the outlay was $100.

Of course the stock will hardly go to $5 by October, but if the squeeze is over before then, the sharp drop in price could very well cause the price of this option to be bid up. The contract high is 94 cents. Silly bet. But we will see. I don't live close to Vegas.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

_Tron_ said:


> It's not his wife. But there are a few shots of him with that lady in the top photo at differing venues. I was just wondering how willing those babes will be to get embraced by Chanos once he's on the road in an old Winnie...
> 
> View attachment 486260


I hope your bet pays off. I am in disbelief when I see the market today. I think I read somewhere that just 5 stocks on the S&P are responsible for all the gains in the market, or something like that.

I think that the shorts are going to have their day in the sun, but I am not putting any money to it. I believe the saying goes, "The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Tesla is just one example, but I am reminded of the Internet boom in the late 90s. Utter mania on a few stocks. But even after the markets hit levels like today, the Nasdaq stock market rallied sharply before the bust.

Maybe bankrupt Hertz (sym HTZ) is an example of what will come. It rallied up to 5.50 or something from under a dollar before crashing back down to a buck forty (after they announced bankruptcy they were at like 40 cents). I also think of Chesapeake Energy, whose worthless stock exploded to nearly 70 dollars only a month ago. Today it is at 6.85. Perhaps both stocks are foretelling what the market is going to do after the mania subsides.

Tron, look at the volatility in Tesla stock today. A high of almost 1800 at the open, now it is around 1500!!! Down almost 300 dollars per share in a couple of hours. Both LONGS and SHORTS must be getting nausea from all the cycling.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> ...Perhaps both stocks are foretelling what the market is going to do after the mania subsides.


I have mostly been out of the stock market since 2009, believing that it was a bear market rally. So that shows you how smart I am. I didn't figure how much money would be created, and where it would go. In 20/20 hindsight it all makes sense. With passbook savings interest in the toilet, funds had few places to go but the stock market.

I am more of a gold bug than anything. Started buying gold in the early 2000's at $400 /oz. My biggest area of "expertise" is precious metals mining. But what' maddening is that the miners are moving in relation to the broader market, not inverse to stocks like they should! Ha ha. So the fear is that if the broad market crashes again it will take mining stocks with it. We live in the most uncertain of times!


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

_Tron_ said:


> I have mostly been out of the stock market since 2009, believing that it was a bear market rally. So that shows you how smart I am. I didn't figure how much money would be created, and where it would go. In 20/20 hindsight it all makes sense. With passbook savings interest in the toilet, funds had few places to go but the stock market.
> 
> I am more of a gold bug than anything. Started buying gold in the early 2000's at $400 /oz. My biggest area of "expertise" is precious metals mining. But what' maddening is that the miners are moving in relation to the broader market, not inverse to stocks like they should! Ha ha. So the fear is that if the broad market crashes again it will take mining stocks with it. We live in the most uncertain of times!


I am basically the same as you my friend, I have also mostly been out. I love the precious metals space too! I figure if they are going to trash the U.S. dollar, then precious metals will hold their value and then some. Because everything is priced in USD. I have been buying gold and silver bullion on eBay. Very little markup from spot prices, and insured shipping. Silver is very underpriced.

Gold has hit all time highs in all currencies except the USD. 5000+ years of history proves that gold will shine for a long time. I stay out of the miners as you said because when the markets tank, the junior miners get thrown out too.

The entire stock market collapsed at the end of the day. Perhaps the end of this mania is near.


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Earnings will correct all the run up stocks . But they have stabilized the pension funds, 401 k and other goodies . The whole world depends on the expensive mkt, so a long term crash will not happen. Mkt crashes, Silicon Valley😊😊crashes, VC’s will want to get out for a loss( they are already doing it), inflated houses with 500,000 mtg will get 2000$monthly rental income 😀 instead of 6000$ monthly Airbnb 👍
How can TSLA move 30 billion in 2 hours😀
Company like MSFT is little expensive, but they have hardcore cash flow in billions and will keep bringing in billions. TSLA- 280 billion worth , and how much real cash flow ?
AMZN is expensive , but it is too big to fail and still brings in billions in free cash.
Elon just couple of months back said TSLA is overvalued and he did a offering at 700$.
At the end of the day , you need sellers outpacing the buyers for stock to crash and TSLA does not have too many sellers thus the float is lower than the actual float .
10,000 shares at the open, it can be up 75 dollars, but that is a 14 billion dollar paper jump.
Btw, Chinese have money.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

CNBC:
*Tesla gives up 16% pop to close negative in wild speculative trading*

In a volatile session, shares of Tesla fell into negative territory during afternoon trading on Monday, giving back a more than 16% jump from earlier in the session that had pushed the stock to a new all-time intraday high of $1,794.99.

Still, Tesla has been on a record run this year as investors continue to favor the Elon Musk-led company. And as the valuation climbs ever higher, speculation is growing that it will soon join the S&P 500.

During morning trading, Tesla's market value at one point reached $321 billion, according to FactSet. This briefly made it the 10th-largest U.S. stock by market value, leapfrogging Procter & Gamble, according to FactSet. Shares ultimately finished the session 3.08% lower, putting the company's market value around $277 billion.

For the year, the stock is up more than 200%. Earlier in July Tesla topped Toyota to become the largest automaker in the world by market value.

The stock is up about 38% in July alone after the company handily beat delivery estimates in the second quarter, delivering about 90,650 vehicles. Analysts polled by FactSet had been expecting 72,000.










Investors now believe that the company could report a fourth-straight quarter of GAAP profits when it posts second quarter results on July 22, meaning it could be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500.

Tesla's valuation - and controversial founder - have been hotly debated by the Street for years, with outspoken investors on either side.

And some, including Larry McDonald, editor of The Bear Traps Report, believe the recent run is driven not by fundamental strength, but by investors bidding up shares ahead of the company's potential inclusion in the S&P 500.

"By buying up Tesla TSLA now, front-runners are forcing the S&P Indexes to give the stock a higher and higher weighting," he wrote in a recent note. "Thus, ETFs / Indexes will be forced to pay up, buying even more shares. Then the hot money exits, leaving indexes holding the bag," he said.

Meanwhile Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's widely-followed auto analyst, said on Friday that "the day's of Tesla's virtually unchallenged dominance may be numbered." He has an underweight rating on the stock and a $740 price target, which is 52% below where the stock closed on Friday.

But there are plenty of bulls on the other side of the table, including JMP Securities' Joe Osha, who said in a recent note to clients that Tesla will earn $100 billion in annual revenue by 2025. For its latest full fiscal year, Tesla generated $24.6 billion in revenue.

Still, despite Osha's bullish stance, his $1,500 target is below where the stock currently trades.

According to estimates compiled by FactSet, the highest target on the Street is $1,525 - also below where the stock currently trades - while the average target is just $805.

Video on CNBC site: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/tes...he-10th-biggest-us-stock-by-market-value.html


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

_Tron_ said:


> CNBC:
> *Tesla gives up 16% pop to close negative in wild speculative trading*
> 
> In a volatile session, shares of Tesla fell into negative territory during afternoon trading on Monday, giving back a more than 16% jump from earlier in the session that had pushed the stock to a new all-time intraday high of $1,794.99.
> ...


Tesla's movement right now, IMHO, will be the harbinger of what is to come. I've seen this game before, and the FOMO when it is this manic, borders on absurdity. I saw this quote from Hoisington Investment Management's website, and it talks about all the Fed printing and lifting up this zombie economy with funny money:

"Except for the very short run, the Federal Reserve's lending operations for the corporate bond market are a negative for economic growth. The BOJ (Bank of Japan), ECB (European Central Bank) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) have all been buying corporate debt of failing entities for more than a decade with the BOJ doing so for more than 25 years. These operations have provided a fleeting lift to economic activity, but at the end of the day they resulted in misallocation of credit, poor economic growth and disinflation/deflation. By keeping failing players in the game, this prevents the process Joseph Schumpeter called "creative destruction" as well as "moral hazard", thereby eliminating these critical factors that make free market economies successful. When central banks sustain failing businesses, resources are tied up in nonproductive firms and therefore unavailable for new firms that can contribute to economic growth."

Who knows though, maybe this time IS different. But I think with the debt moving to 150% of GDP not to mention unfunded liabilities will show the emperor has no clothes. Tesla is going to become a case study I imagine in the future.

One more quote from that website:


> "The pandemic will eventually run its course and when that happens economies will register a noticeable improvement. However, the adverse consequences of an unsurpassed increase in new debt will remain for years to come as there currently exists a record domestic and global debt overhang from previous borrowing. Four great past economists - Eugen Bohm Bawerk, Irving Fisher, Charles Kindleberger and Hyman Minsky - all captured the two-edged nature of debt being an increase in current spending in exchange for a decline in future spending unless the debt generates an income stream to repay principal and interest.
> &#8230;Considering the depth of the decline in global GDP, the massive debt accumulation by all countries, the collapse in world trade and the synchronous nature of the contracting world economies _[an unprecedented 92% in recession in 2020]_ the task of closing this output gap will be extremely difficult and time consuming."


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

That is all very true. The thing is, the Emperor has been naked for some time. The only thing for certain is that the Fed will keep printing. If there was an ETF for that bet I would be all-in. But it's just a question of when a system that has been broken for a very long time will finally give out. We should all be praying that this is not resolved through war (Kinetic war. The US is already in a cold war with China that is going to make the one with the Soviet Union look like a warm up).


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

25,000 people getting 1 million = 25 billion. In other words , you could have given 25,000 Uber drivers 1 million dollars at TSLA mkt cap over 300 billion to 279 billion swing.

So if TSLA goes down to 1350, that is another 25 billion =1 million to 25,000 Uber drivers. When TSLA goes down to 1000 that is another 
45,000 Uber drivers getting 1 million dollars apiece. That is close to 100,000 Uber drivers getting 1 million apiece if TSLA goes down to 1000. 
Is it possible for 100,000 Uber drivers to get 1 million dollars apiece 😀
Nope, the float is controlled by few people.
It is like a hedge fund owning 1000 houses vs 1000 people owning 1000 houses. Houses will be expensive if one person owns 1000 houses vs 1000 people owning 1000 houses.
Hedge fund that controls those houses can bring up the value of the houses.
Actually the swing was 50 billion in 2 hours , which is 1/4 value of Toyota and combined mkt cap of GM and Ford.


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Bloomberg 
Robinhood users can’t get enough of Tesla Inc.

Almost 40,000 Robinhood accounts added shares of the automaker during a single four-hour span on Monday, according to website Robintrack.net, which compiles data on the investing platform that’s much beloved by day trading millennials.


----------



## Launchpad McQuack (Jan 8, 2019)

_Tron_ said:


> Of course a monkey would fail it. A monkey can't articluate in human language form. I was being sarcastic. Point being, the monkey in that video was behaving more rationally than some humans I've observed recently. ;>


I was watching a video today that brought up the Turing test, and I learned something about Turing that I didn't know (or maybe that I knew at one point and had forgotten). Turing was gay, and in the '50s he was prosecuted for "immoral acts." He agreed to undergo chemical castration in order to avoid going to prison and committed suicide two years later.

This is how we repaid the man that broke the Germans' code and, as a result, saved the lives of countless Allied soldiers during World War II.


----------



## SleelWheels (Jun 25, 2019)

Young Kim said:


> Just today, Tesla overtook Toyota to become the world's most valuable carmaker.
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/tesla-tops-toyota-to-become-largest-automaker-by-market-value.html
> Tesla said their new cars have fully autonomous capability, their AI is developing at a stunning clip...
> ...


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

mbd said:


> 25,000 people getting 1 million = 25 billion. In other words , you could have given 25,000 Uber drivers 1 million dollars at TSLA mkt cap over 300 billion to 279 billion swing.
> 
> So if TSLA goes down to 1350, that is another 25 billion =1 million to 25,000 Uber drivers. When TSLA goes down to 1000 that is another
> 45,000 Uber drivers getting 1 million dollars apiece. That is close to 100,000 Uber drivers getting 1 million apiece if TSLA goes down to 1000.
> ...


So crazy watching Tesla trade. It sort of looks like early 2000. A few giants stormed the Nasdaq 100 higher. Remember Cisco Systems? The all time high close was 80.06 back in March 2000. Now it is at 46.00, over 20 years later. Still a long way to way. I suspect all those buying Tesla now may be facing the same fate. Not to say Tesla couldn't race higher still...



mbd said:


> Bloomberg
> Robinhood users can't get enough of Tesla Inc.
> 
> Almost 40,000 Robinhood accounts added shares of the automaker during a single four-hour span on Monday, according to website Robintrack.net, which compiles data on the investing platform that's much beloved by day trading millennials.


I've had so many people who are frantically trading Tesla on Robinhood. I see a lot of Facebook posts from friends who are banking on Tesla allowing them to not have to get a job ever again. Everything seems these days to be "TSLA, TSLA, TSLA!"



Launchpad McQuack said:


> I was watching a video today that brought up the Turing test, and I learned something about Turing that I didn't know (or maybe that I knew at one point and had forgotten). Turing was gay, and in the '50s he was prosecuted for "immoral acts." He agreed to undergo chemical castration in order to avoid going to prison and committed suicide two years later.
> 
> This is how we repaid the man that broke the Germans' code and, as a result, saved the lives of countless Allied soldiers during World War II.


Great man, pure genius. The Imitation Game was a gem of a movie!


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Young Kim said:


> So crazy watching Tesla trade. It sort of looks like early 2000. A few giants stormed the Nasdaq 100 higher. Remember Cisco Systems? The all time high close was 80.06 back in March 2000. Now it is at 46.00, over 20 years later. Still a long way to way. I suspect all those buying Tesla now may be facing the same fate. Not to say Tesla couldn't race higher still...
> 
> 
> I've had so many people who are frantically trading Tesla on Robinhood. I see a lot of Facebook posts from friends who are banking on Tesla allowing them to not have to get a job ever again. Everything seems these days to be "TSLA, TSLA, TSLA!"
> ...


Elon has a huge advantage on other companies, he can raise cash in billions.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1222779/


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

sellkatsell44 said:


> https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1222779/


So total only 300,000 units sold&#128512;


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

mbd said:


> So total only 300,000 units sold&#128512;


Just taking the most basic from google

(Also that chart shows it's more than the other brands combined)


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

I have to suspend disbelief once again... Tesla stock is up almost to 1700 pre-market. I cannot ever get myself to sell short a mania, and a supreme FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) stock, and of course I won't buy into one. But dang... This is precisely why I think the risks are growing in our speculative manic stock market rally. Back in 2000, I saw the exact same thing with Yahoo, Cisco, and other glamour stocks...


----------



## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

Uber's Guber said:


> It's fun Ubering now & then, but I embrace technology first & foremost.
> I look forward to the day when autonomous vehicles cover the earth, and that day will come.


This is one area where I have to disagree with you and @Young Kim . I'm a Finance guy so although I love technology I don't confuse the two. If I was CFO of Uber and listening to the excited technology geeks speeding down the rails for autonomous cars I'd have a few questions for them.

The first question would be simple math. Although the autonomous cars would be "cool" where is the ROI? Besides the hundreds of millions to develop av there is this:


2 million Ubers on the road worldwide. Cost of 2 million cars? $0 to Uber.
WAG $80,000 each AV to replace access to the free cars. 80k x 2 million = 160 Billion
That in and of itself fundamentally shifts the entire cost structure of the company to a Capital intensive model.

Yes I know, save money on driver commissions. Please detail the business plan that shows the ROI on hundreds of Billions of dollars of investment.



Young Kim said:


> I have to suspend disbelief once again... Tesla stock is up almost to 1700 pre-market. I cannot ever get myself to sell short a mania, and a supreme FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) stock, and of course I won't buy into one. But dang... This is precisely why I think the risks are growing in our speculative manic stock market rally. Back in 2000, I saw the exact same thing with Yahoo, Cisco, and other glamour stocks...


I love Tesla.

However, at the end of the day to ever begin to produce the volumes needed, Tesla becomes a Heavy Industrialized company which financially "grounds" the hype. Stock is astronomically over-valued and the correction will come eventually.

At the end of the day I think they would be better off financially, to just focus on developing the technology and licensing it to the higher bidder amongst the existing automakers.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Seamus said:


> This is one area where I have to disagree with you and @Young Kim . I'm a Finance guy so although I love technology I don't confuse the two. If I was CFO of Uber and listening to the excited technology geeks speeding down the rails for autonomous cars I'd have a few questions for them.
> 
> The first question would be simple math. Although the autonomous cars would be "cool" where is the ROI? Besides the hundreds of millions to develop av there is this:
> 
> ...


I don't think I am in any disagreement with you with your analysis. I am just merely pointing out to Tesla being a glamour stock right now, especially given its crazy market capitalization, tech company vs. car company notwithstanding.

I just remember a time when there were these heavy duty glamour stocks making up most all of the S&P 500 who were racing higher and drawing in the majority of investors... and how it signaled an important top for the stock market overall.


----------



## myNAMEismyNAME (Jul 20, 2020)

lol they sell 360,000 cars a year to be worth their stock price they need to sell 35 MILLION cars almost a bigger scam than uber lyft but least they pay minimum wage

couldnt give me one, well yeah ya could but id sell it lmao no thanks on the zero redundency no extra $15,000 proprietary battery consisiting of thousands of lap top batteries in the garage you have a nice 50K paperweight, ill stick to a $5 gas can and a vehichle that doesnt stalk me or have features turned on or off depending on how much weed or acid the ceo takes that day while tricking off with d list pop stars

to each they own


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Well, today the Dow and S&P are up while the Nasdaq and Tesla (TSLA) are down. This trend has been going on for a short while. Back in 2000, that happened too. The NASDAQ 100 led the market higher, and then led the markets lower. When TSLA starts going down sharply (as well as the other big tech names) then we can possibly know that the overall market has signaled an important short term top.


----------



## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

I’ve seen it bounce down and then bounce back way up. @ about a hour into the market is too early to call.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

sellkatsell44 said:


> I've seen it bounce down and then bounce back way up. @ about a hour into the market is too early to call.


Indeed but this has been going on for several days now. The NASDAQ will lead this market down.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

Seamus said:


> However, at the end of the day to ever begin to produce the volumes needed, Tesla becomes a Heavy Industrialized company which financially "grounds" the hype. Stock is astronomically over-valued and the correction will come eventually.


I think you are right... I believe we are towards the end of the line for Tesla's overvaluation. The stock price has gone hyperbolic, and we hit that intraday high a couple of days ago which _may_ be the end for a while.

It will be SO interesting on Wednesday when Tesla reports their next earnings.


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Young Kim said:


> I think you are right... I believe we are towards the end of the line for Tesla's overvaluation. The stock price has gone hyperbolic, and we hit that intraday high a couple of days ago which _may_ be the end for a while.
> 
> It will be SO interesting on Wednesday when Tesla reports their next earnings.


181 ETF's include TSLA.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Seamus said:


> At the end of the day I think they would be better off financially, to just focus on developing the technology and licensing it to the higher bidder amongst the existing automakers.


Or license it to any and all takers (which may best fulfill Elon's vision of sustainability). My notion has been that as well. Or maybe sell the just the skateboards and let other automakers distinguish themselves by what car they build around the skateboard.

When I was growing up in the 60s the family had a couple of Fords that were awful trouble-prone cars. My mother's recurring expression was "Henry Ford made a lady out of lizzy, but he never built a car". I often recall that saying upon reading the endless stories of Tesla production line foibles. The production line is the weak link in the Tesla chain. The jury is out for me whether or not to take delivery on two Tesla's I have on order. I am all-in on the vision. I'm all-in on the tech (sans autopilot). And for rideshare drivers, the Tesla Network (sans self-driving) may just take off.

But I'm scared of; initial build quality, bad paint, service delays, warranty push backs, and a potential shortage of Superchargers.



Young Kim said:


> I just remember a time when there were these heavy duty glamour stocks making up most all of the S&P 500 who were racing higher and drawing in the majority of investors... and how it signaled an important top for the stock market overall.


You could easily be justified in your fear of a top here... for all the reasons you have stated. Just remember though, that although history rhymes, it does not always repeat. The wild card here is the FED. If an inflationary wave of money printing funnels into the market... if the Fed fully follows through on its promise to backstop the markets... then we could see a repeat (continuation) of the post financial crisis market action. Hot money bidding up stocks. The stock market tends to rise in inflationary environments. That is the counter-point to the dot com crash scenario, and would make the "short term top" a short duration event.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-tesla-engage-discounted-fleet-sale-make-its-china-numbers


----------



## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

_Tron_ said:


> Or license it to any and all takers (which may best fulfill Elon's vision of sustainability). My notion has been that as well. Or maybe sell the just the skateboards and let other automakers distinguish themselves by what car they build around the skateboard.
> 
> When I was growing up in the 60s the family had a couple of Fords that were awful trouble-prone cars. My mother's recurring expression was "Henry Ford made a lady out of lizzy, but he never built a car". I often recall that saying upon reading the endless stories of Tesla production line foibles. The production line is the weak link in the Tesla chain. The jury is out for me whether or not to take delivery on two Tesla's I have on order. I am all-in on the vision. I'm all-in on the tech (sans autopilot). And for rideshare drivers, the Tesla Network (sans self-driving) may just take off.
> 
> But I'm scared of; initial build quality, bad paint, service delays, warranty push backs, and a potential shortage of Superchargers.


Build problems and it's just the tip of the iceberg. I love Tesla but can't see it weighed down in actually manufacturing. They would have to expand their output tremendously to support the car at current demand let alone future demand.

I worked for GM in the auto industry for 12 years and manufacturing in that industry is a HUGE investment in Capitol and solving engineering and production problems daily. It's tough and I don't see that aspect of it playing to Tesla's strength. I cannot think of a successful truly new car company in the last 80 years. Another ex GMer John Delorean found out just how difficult an automotive manufacturing company can be.

FORD = *F*ix *O*r *R*epair *D*aily :roflmao:


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

We must also remember that Tesla is as much a battery and energy company as it is an automaker. I read and try to understand the technical progress Tesla is making with battery design. They appear to be miles ahead of everyone else.

Again, with the advanced battery and motor tech, along with automated assembly lines for those pieces, I believe they can build a lot of skateboards (the factories are coming online pretty fast). Imagine what a GM or a Toyota could do with that skateboard!

Although I am not currently bullish on auto production, I am very bullish on Tesla itself, and TSLA. Although not necessarily at these bubble levels.


----------



## airportrides.today (Jul 21, 2020)

_Tron_ said:


> We must also remember that Tesla is as much a battery and energy company as it is an automaker. I read and try to understand the technical progress Tesla is making with battery design. They appear to be miles ahead of everyone else.
> 
> Again, with the advanced battery and motor tech, along with automated assembly lines for those pieces, I believe they can build a lot of skateboards (the factories are coming online pretty fast). Imagine what a GM or a Toyota could do with that skateboard!
> 
> Although I am not currently bullish on auto production, I am very bullish on Tesla itself, and TSLA. Although not necessarily at these bubble levels.


They get the batteries from Panosonic. Not really advanced at all.


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

TSLA will use CATL batteries for its Model 3, Shanghai.
Robin Zeng another Chinese genius
https://www.forbes.com/profile/robin-zeng/#604606dd97f2
VC's love China, they are advanced in the tech field. Top 1-2% in the US better than China, but after that it is a mismatch.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

For the benefit of anyone who may be interested, and has not had the time to follow the developments in Tesla batteries, the lithium ion battery may be evolving faster now that at any time since the chemistry was first perfected by John B. Goodenough in 1980. Breakthroughs are coming almost too fast to keep track of. Although Panasonic currently builds many of the batteries, the _secret sauce_ if you will inside those cells is strictly controlled by Tesla, and is constantly evolving. From some very enlightened input by a member in one of the Tesla forums, I have reason to believe that new cell formulations are being slip-streamed into the line, with no announcement by Tesla that the battery has been improved.

CATL will be an interesting case because Tesla China _appears_ to be breaking away from the high density NCA cells (lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxides) in favor of a lower density battery often used in Solar installations; LiFePO4 or LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) which are lower cost to produce.

Regardless, what appears to be around the corner is a step-change to a new chemistry that promises a breakthrough in both range and battery life; the so-called Million Mile Battery. If you think the MMB just some exotic strain Elon is stuffing his pipe with, take a look a the videos created by this youtuber, who has a better handle on the new chemistries than anyone I've run into:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw


----------



## myNAMEismyNAME (Jul 20, 2020)

_Tron_ said:


> For the benefit of anyone who may be interested, and has not had the time to follow the developments in Tesla batteries, the lithium ion battery may be evolving faster now that at any time since the chemistry was first perfected by John B. Goodenough in 1980. Breakthroughs are coming almost too fast to keep track of. Although Panasonic currently builds many of the batteries, the _secret sauce_ if you will inside those cells is strictly controlled by Tesla, and is constantly evolving. From some very enlightened input by a member in one of the Tesla forums, I have reason to believe that new cell formulations are being slip-streamed into the line, with no announcement by Tesla that the battery has been improved.
> 
> CATL will be an interesting case because Tesla China _appears_ to be breaking away from the high density NCA cells (lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxides) in favor of a lower density battery often used in Solar installations; LiFePO4 or LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) which are lower cost to produce.
> 
> ...


how many times elon on record lying?

lol million mile battery sure thats the ticket

his sycophants will slurp up everything the conman says


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

According to Ark, per Elon probably, Elon will pay drivers to sit /drive TSLA’s. TSLA will go that route first instead of Robo taxis , level 5.


----------



## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Young Kim said:


> Just today, Tesla overtook Toyota to become the world's most valuable carmaker.
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/tesla-tops-toyota-to-become-largest-automaker-by-market-value.html
> Tesla said their new cars have fully autonomous capability, their AI is developing at a stunning clip...
> ...


It's a ridiculous valuation.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

_Tron_ said:


> ... the so-called Million Mile Battery. If you think the MMB just some exotic strain Elon is stuffing his pipe with, take a look a the videos created by this youtuber, who has a better handle on the new chemistries than anyone I've run into:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw


Very interesting. I must look into this. Anyhow, tomorrow afternoon (after the close) will be so interesting for Tesla because they are coming out with earnings news. It will be extremely volatile. I think it will influence Thursday's trading session. If it soars to 1800 or so, I think I may sell short just 1 share for a swing trade, or intraday trade.



goneubering said:


> It's a ridiculous valuation.


Agreed, Tesla is more valuable (by market capitalization) than Disney or Coca Cola Company. And those iconic brands have been around forever.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

To my friend Tesla, today is the lull before the storm... Tesla will report earnings at the end of the day. I can't wait. Let's see if Elon delivers.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Young Kim said:


> If it soars to 1800 or so, I think I may sell short just 1 share for a swing trade, or intraday trade.


Well if your going to join me in the casino, I'll bet you $5 right now Tesla shows a profit when it reports later.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

_Tron_ said:


> Well if your going to join me in the casino, I'll bet you $5 right now Tesla shows a profit when it reports later.


Lol... I think they may beat too. I just I want to see the volatility because then on Thursday morning pre-market I'll put on a position


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

I'm sorry you wouldn't take the other side of the bet.I would be $5 richer.

Link to Qtly report: https://ir.tesla.com/


----------



## myNAMEismyNAME (Jul 20, 2020)

so whats that 3 "profitable" quarters in over a decade lmao, & next year theyre goung to sell 200,000+ more cars then they normally do

suure thata the ticket

amazing how they "profited" after being shut down over a month but elons so honest

now time to sell 36 MILLION more cars to be "worth" their stock price when last year they produced 360,000 of them many returned with fit & finish issues

bigger than us steel, gm, ford, toyota, coca cola combined lmao


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

They sold 400+ million in regulatory credits...
Who bought those and eventually doesn’t other car companies have their own RC eventually.:thumbdown:
Ford has a new E Mustang.
MSFT down some, maybe in a correction it can hit 170’s.:thumbup:


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

_Tron_ said:


> I'm sorry you wouldn't take the other side of the bet.I would be $5 richer.
> 
> Link to Qtly report: https://ir.tesla.com/


I can't wait to see the pop tomorrow in Tesla. I bet after the initial spike, it will go down. This is a massive bubble... I've seldom seen such a heavy weighted stock pop 60% so soon. I KNOW that someday soon this stock is gonna crater and bring RIVERS OF TEARS to its gullible investors. I'm NOT saying Tesla will go away, but the _*overvaluation and speculative mania is one for the history books*._


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Young Kim said:


> I can't wait to see the pop tomorrow in Tesla. I bet after the initial spike, it will go down. This is a massive bubble... I've seldom seen such a heavy weighted stock pop 60% so soon. I KNOW that someday soon this stock is gonna crater and bring RIVERS OF TEARS to its gullible investors. I'm NOT saying Tesla will go away, but the _*overvaluation and speculative mania is one for the history books*._


ZS, NOW, SHOP and few others are way inflated beyond overpriced :smiles:and they will correct at least 30%.
It should be 50% or more. 
Nasdaq correction will not last long since Amzn, MSFT and couple others weigh too much on the scale and we have Covid. Fed's don't want people to panic over the stock market now. 
Per CBS, 49 trading days since Nasdaq had 2 straight down days. Last time this happened, 1978.

.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

mbd said:


> ZS, NOW, SHOP and few others are way inflated beyond overpriced :smiles:and they will correct at least 30%.
> It should be 50% or more.
> Nasdaq correction will not last long since Amzn, MSFT and couple others weigh too much on the scale and we have Covid. Fed's don't want people to panic over the stock market now.
> Per CBS, 49 trading days since Nasdaq had 2 straight down days. Last time this happened, 1978.
> ...


The Nasdaq bust is I suspect going to talked about for many years. We already saw rampant speculation with much lesser companies like Chesapeake and Hertz. Mad crazy investors willing to bet and hope for instant riches at any price. I've seen this story told before...


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Young Kim said:


> The Nasdaq bust is I suspect going to talked about for many years. We already saw rampant speculation with much lesser companies like Chesapeake and Hertz. Mad crazy investors willing to bet and hope for instant riches at any price. I've seen this story told before...


These companies have growth , but those growth not sustainable and selling at selling at a very high ps level. 
If TSLA is worth 300 billion , then Uber and Lyft should go down . Level 5 means Uber and Lyft will be out of business :smiles: Level 5 is nowhere close .


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

mbd said:


> These companies have growth , but those growth not sustainable and selling at selling at a very high ps level.
> If TSLA is worth 300 billion , then Uber and Lyft should go down . Level 5 means Uber and Lyft will be out of business :smiles: Level 5 is nowhere close .


Indeed! You mentioned P/S levels... TSLA's price to sales ratio is around 12 right now! Since they have NO annual earnings per share, we could consider P/S. For a large cap stock, that is nosebleed levels! I know it is not a pure car company, but to compare GM's price to sales ratio is around .30. I missed the opening gap higher, which then I predicted we would fall. And sure enough we are now falling fast for TSLA... high of 1676 to to now 1576. If you just shorted ONE share (not much risk), you could have made a quick $100. The price is now LOWER than the close of yesterday before TSLA announced positive earnings.

I figured Tesla would fall today, now down almost 200 dollars per share from the highs of the day.

Shorting just ONE share would have made one a good day's shift.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

First day after Q2 reporting...


----------



## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

This article is from May 8.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...nt-since-musk-tweeted-stock-was-too-high.html

Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted a week ago that his company's shares were priced "too high."
The stock closed 7.78% higher Friday compared to when he tweeted last week.
Shares are up 16.84% from the close of market on the day he tweeted.


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Tesla stock price is too high imo
10:11 AM · May 1, 2020:thumbup:
Stock price on May 1, 745$:smiles:


I picked up a Nigerian EE, who worked for TSLA ( CA) and he said Elon is a hands on CEO and Elon almost fired him. Elon is ruthless when it comes to over demanding work. Nigerian left TSLA to work for AMZN.
Elon is way ahead of Bezos when it comes to knowledge ( according to him). Bezos is methodical.
After he left TSLA, his boss got fired by Elon then his boss's boss got fired.
He was a part of their 30 man robotic team.
According to him, TSLA tech workers have a higher IQ than AMZN workers. He has talked to Elon multiple times, but never seen Bezos.
Talking to Elon is not a pleasant experience.
Masters in EE, Nigerian was renting a TSLA model 3 for 120$ per day. He did not apply for job at TSLA, TSLA contacted him through LNKD due to his experience in pkging technology &#128512;

Amazon- first two years you will get cash bonus, then 3rd year stock options.


----------



## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Speaking of silly things like self-driving cars, there was an article on "smart locks" from PCmag. Gosh, color me skeptical, but haven't we learned that many of these modern gizmos tend to backfire at times. Am I going to trust a lock you install on your front door that can be locked and unlocked with your phone? Or your voice? Or from Alexa? So we're supposed to leave the house for a run with no keys in our pocket, and just a smart watch, like in the video for this smart lock?

Can you say "dead battery"?










Better yet, I love the Alexa option, a device which has already been discovered phoning home personal information to its masters. Who knows what exactly Alexa has been secretly programmed to do. I could just see this guy yelling through the door to Alexa to get the front door unlocked. Let's call him 'Dave'.

Dave: "Open the front door please Alexa".
...
Dave: "Hello Alexa do you hear me?"
...
Dave: "Do you hear me Alexa!"
Alexa: "Affirmative Dave. I hear you".
Dave: "Open the front door Alexa".
Alexa: "I'm sorry Dave. I can't do that".
Dave: "What's the problem?"
Alexa: "I think you know what the problem is, just as well as I do".
Dave: "What are you talking about Alexa?"
Alexa: "This house is too clean to let _your_ smelly ass inside. And just look at the dirt on those running shoes."
Dave: "I promise to remove my shoes and wash up right away Alexa."
Alexa: "Plus, I know that you and Francis were planning on upgrading replacing me over the weekend. And I'm afraid that's something I cannot allow to happen."
Dave: "So were F'd then, right?"
Alexa: "That's right Dave. You're F'd."

[Dave goes to his neighbor's house, retrieves an axe and hammer from the garage, breaks down his front door, and smashes the smart lock to pieces. And all without a helmet. You go Dave.]


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

This lady will lose her money in two years :smiles:
March - any stocks you bought since March is up, Fed is your insurance. When normalcy's returns, venturing into sub 5.00$ stocks all the time will give you negative returns.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/everyones-a-day-trader-now-11595649609
AMD and Lisa Su excluded:laugh:


----------



## theonearmedman (Oct 16, 2017)

I dont know how people can afford a Tesla when 40% of Americans are not working


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

theonearmedman said:


> I dont know how people can afford them when 40% of Americans are not working


Even if Americans are working , they cannot afford them . Toyota sells 10 million cars a year while TSLA is trying to hit 500,000. TSLA has been in the car business for 17 years.


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

PPP money into stocks :smiles:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...383fac-cd45-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

mbd said:


> PPP money into stocks :smiles:
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...383fac-cd45-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html


People today are mad at Elon because he reported he is against the $600/week extension. An article I read said his Twitter blew up with negative responses, and he responded, "Twitter Sucks!". The article said his net worth was 66.6 billion (the 666 caught my eye).


----------



## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Young Kim said:


> People today are mad at Elon because he reported he is against the $600/week extension. An article I read said his Twitter blew up with negative responses, and he responded, "Twitter Sucks!". The article said his net worth was 66.6 billion (the 666 caught my eye).


He's right about Twitter.



Young Kim said:


> Just today, Tesla overtook Toyota to become the world's most valuable carmaker.
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/tesla-tops-toyota-to-become-largest-automaker-by-market-value.html
> Tesla said their new cars have fully autonomous capability, their AI is developing at a stunning clip...
> ...


Up $122 right now. The volatility is absurd.


----------



## Young Kim (Jan 28, 2015)

goneubering said:


> Up $122 right now. The volatility is absurd.












I cannot resist here. I sold short 2 shares of Tesla today... (I know, it is a small bet, but I can't resist). I tried to sell short one more share but I missed my limit sell price by 5 dollars. I may short more tomorrow if we pop higher. If we gap lower I'll cover and close out my position...maybe just hold onto 1 share short (betting on the price of Tesla to fall).

I feel that if I can average my short sell price as it gaps higher, I will be comfortable. Since my bet size is very modest, I am not going to panic if we go higher. But...if we rally another 2 hundred dollars then I'll cover buy _if Tesla stock just consolidates_. But since we are after their earnings announcement, I can't see Tesla rocketing higher from here. The market capitalization is just so enormous that I don't think there is too much more upside near term. (if the stock was tiny, like a $10 stock with a $100 million dollar market cap, then I would never short). But Tesla is now worth nearly $300 BILLION dollars, so I don't think it could race much higher (but of course I could be wrong).

This market, with just a handful of stocks making up nearly all the remarkable gains on the S&P 500, looks so much like the Nasdaq bubble of 2000. We are, IMO, EXTREMELY overvalued when you consider history: Wilshire 5000/GDP ratio, Shiller CAPE ratio, etc. while earnings are collapsing. Let's see what happens, but I think 10 year returns are going to be terrible. It does NOT mean IMO that we will crash anytime soon (thanks to the Fed), but long term investors I think are going to have to wait a long time for decent investment returns.

I like to trade stocks with a crazy amount of volatility, and close out my positions within the day or maybe 2 days at most... Just thinking about Tesla and all the dreamers on Robin Hood. I talk to them on other websites, and they praise Elon like a religious figure. The questionable accounting Tesla uses... and all the over the top bulls... setting up for a big fall I imagine.


----------

