# The Dirty Truth Coming for Self-Driving Cars



## REX HAVOC

This is a must read for anyone who thinks driverless cars will be taking drivers jobs in the near future.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/...or-self-driving-cars?utm_source=pocket-newtab


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## Illini

That's an awfully long article about who would clean self-driving cars.


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## REX HAVOC

No one is forcing you to read it.


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## SHalester

It's not going to happen any decade soon.


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## Cereal Killer

SHalester said:


> It's not going to happen any decade soon.


Tesla's magician seems to think it'll happen next year. Whats that ****** bags name? Elaine Musky?


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## REX HAVOC

The point of the article was it that will be so expensive to keep these vehicles clean between rides that it won't be profitable.


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## Cereal Killer

REX HAVOC said:


> The point of the article was it that will be so expensive to keep these vehicles clean between rides that it won't be profitable.


no shit sherlock


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## Illini

REX HAVOC said:


> No one is forcing you to read it.


No one forced you to post it.


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## RideShare_Hustler

It will be autonomous but not in the immediate future.


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## Kurt Halfyard

Cameras and exorbitant cleaning fees will keep the assholes in line.


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## MikhailCA

REX HAVOC said:


> This is a must read for anyone who thinks driverless cars will be taking drivers jobs in the near future.


it will, in 20 years or so.
Cleaning cars, really? Who told you what the driverless cars gonna be looks like your Prius? For taxi/ ride sharing gonna be fast removing plastic interior. Gonna be automatic power wash within a few second or cabin replacement within a few minutes.


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## Cereal Killer

MikhailCA said:


> it will, in 20 years or so.
> Cleaning cars, really? Who told you what the driverless cars gonna be looks like your Prius? For taxi/ ride sharing gonna be fast removing plastic interior. Gonna be automatic power wash within a few second or cabin replacement within a few minutes.


You've been watching the Jetsons. Both of those options would be way too expensive. They'd have to rely on passengers to not make a mess. Open locations and hire staff to clean the vehicles. This will never happen, not even in 20 years.


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## SHalester

Cereal Killer said:


> Tesla's magician seems to think it'll happen next year.


yeah, no happening. No city or county/state is going to permit that ability anytime soon. Pipe dream.


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## CarpeNoctem

Not only the maintenance but what about people propping the doors open to anchor it for their ride home or the cars getting blocked in by shopping carts or traffic cones. There will have to be be crews just driving around to get them unstuck.


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## Cereal Killer

SHalester said:


> yeah, no happening. No city or county/state is going to permit that ability anytime soon. Pipe dream.


He has the ability to sell pipe dreams and drive up his stock


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## SHalester

Cereal Killer said:


> He has the ability to sell pipe dreams and drive up his stock


I'll say this about that: those who **** Tesla would tank and **** they'd be rich via short sells are now crying or were crying. Don't bet against Elon. And don't believe his timetables either. but eventually dude delivers.

when there is a true AI, then maybe somebody can think about robot driving cars. Not today, not next month. Next decade, maybe.


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## tohunt4me

SHalester said:


> It's not going to happen any decade soon.


When we Live on Mars !


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## SHalester

tohunt4me said:


> When we Live on Mars !


yeah, a few decades from now. They need to practice on the moon first. Otherwise Mars would be a one way trip; we ain't ready.


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## Cereal Killer

SHalester said:


> I'll say this about that: those who thought Tesla would tank and thought they'd be rich via short sells are now crying or were crying. Don't bet against Elon. And don't believe his timetables either. but eventually dude delivers.
> 
> when there is a true AI, then maybe somebody can think about robot driving cars. Not today, not next month. Next decade, maybe.


Yet my smart remote programs itself, understands everything I say and organizes my day. Go figure.


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## SHalester

Cereal Killer said:


> Yet my smart remote programs itself, understands everything I say and organizes my day.


does whatever you are using pass the Turing test?

What Is the *Turing Test*? The *Turing Test* is a deceptively simple method of determining whether a *machine* can demonstrate human intelligence: If a *machine* can engage in a conversation with a human without being detected as a *machine*, it has demonstrated human intelligence

That would be a true AI.

I suggest watch the HBO series WestWorld. :thumbup:


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## Fusion_LUser

I don't like the idea of self-driving cars I love to drive however I will never buy a car again if it doesn't have "Stop-n-Go" cruise control. I have to admit that feature is wonderful in traffic. You still have to pay attention but letting the car start/stop with traffic is far less stressful.

I spent 2.5 hours in traffic on the I-15 to about 16 miles from Jean, NV to the state line while going home after the 4th of July. Letting the car do the work was so much easier!


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## MikhailCA

Cereal Killer said:


> You've been watching the Jetsons. Both of those options would be way too expensive. They'd have to rely on passengers to not make a mess. Open locations and hire staff to clean the vehicles. This will never happen, not even in 20 years.


There's no need any staff on these facilities, you don't really understand how the automation gonna change the world in 20-30 years. Google for light out manufacturing, anything what doesn't required creativity thinking can be automated even now.


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## Cereal Killer

MikhailCA said:


> There's no need any staff on these facilities, you don't really understand how the automation gonna change the world in 20-30 years. Google for light out manufacturing, anything what doesn't required creativity thinking can be automated even now.


It will never be allowed. Local government will not lose all that money. Hundreds of thousands of taxable citizens so a corporation could make billions? Will never happen in a million years.


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## #professoruber

Outside of the AI needed to factor in human behavior. Cleaning cars or handling the cheap ones that think they can pile in. Then you have the drunktards that can barely function.

I personally think the biggest factor is Uber or Lyft has not invested in the asset (car/driver). These idiots have no clue that all of us drivers would run 12+ hours if we were running optimally. Back to back trips all day long with minimal dead miles is what makes us profitable. I would love to see an app that is transparent on what is happening next. Meaning, I drop at the airport, here is a ride to a major city. Take these short rides for a 45 minutes and we have another ride back to the airport scheduled for you. Here is long trip, here is a ride 20 miles away, but it taking you here. I think for autonomous vehicles to be profitable, they will need to focus on scheduling rides rather than the on demand model. At that point, assets can be maximized.


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## jeanocelot

This will be no big thing. Cars will be outfit with easy-clean surfaces that a former-ant-now-autonomous-car-cleaner could clean with a strong power wash.


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## Cereal Killer

jeanocelot said:


> This will be no big thing. Cars will be outfit with easy-clean surfaces that a former-ant-now-autonomous-car-cleaner could clean with a strong power wash.


Nothing you just said is practical. The fact is they have no plan. Your make believe autonomous car washes don't and will never exist


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## jeanocelot

Cereal Killer said:


> Nothing you just said is practical. The fact is they have no plan. Your make believe autonomous car washes don't and will never exist


It won't necessarily be autonomous. There will be former ants controlling the spray wash.


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## Monkeyman4394

I feel like there’s a lot of fear in this thread. Autonomous cars are inevitable, but likely not mass adoption in this decade.


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## Cereal Killer

Monkeyman4394 said:


> I feel like there's a lot of fear in this thread. Autonomous cars are inevitable, but likely not mass adoption in this decade.


if you drive a day in NYC you'd see it wasn't feasible this century


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## Monkeyman4394

Cereal Killer said:


> if you drive a day in NYC you'd see it wasn't feasible this century


I've driven in NYC. Computing power is doubling at faster rates as time passes. I'm 48, and I'll see proliferation of autonomous cars in my lifetime.


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## Cereal Killer

Monkeyman4394 said:


> I've driven in NYC. Computing power is doubling at faster rates as time passes. I'm 48, and I'll see proliferation of autonomous cars in my lifetime.


1. They wont work until cars are as smart as humans
2. They'll get hacked
3. You can't prove they're safe
4. Best case scenario you'll see incremental autonomy a.k.a computer assisted drivers
5. Self driving cars would make traffic and emissions worse than ever


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## Tampa Bay Hauler

jeanocelot said:


> This will be no big thing. Cars will be outfit with easy-clean surfaces that a former-ant-now-autonomous-car-cleaner could clean with a strong power wash.


So you're saying the PAX are going to love these hard cold surfaces? That is going to be a hard sell. No pun intended.Pull the car in and flush it like a toilet. Send it back out. Wet probably. Hitch hiking is about to come back in style.


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## Monkeyman4394

Cereal Killer said:


> 1. They wont work until cars are as smart as humans
> 2. They'll get hacked
> 3. You can't prove they're safe
> 4. Best case scenario you'll see incremental autonomy a.k.a computer assisted drivers
> 5. Self driving cars would make traffic and emissions worse than ever


Can you prove that human drivers are safe?


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## Kurt Halfyard

Monkeyman4394 said:


> Can you prove that human drivers are safe?


On balance, It is my expectation that self-driving cars will cut down accidents by over 90%.
However, people will loose their shit if their loved ones are maimed/killed by algorithm error, rather than human error, even though statistically, they are less likely to get in an accident when greater than 80% of the driving is done by A.I. It's a weird quirk in human thinking that 'whoops humans are perfect.' but WE DEMAND TECHNOLOGY TO BE 100% PERFECT if we are to switch away from people.

Don't let PERFECT be the enemy of GOOD.


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## Seamus

The idea of autonomous cars for Uber has never made any financial sense to me until one very simple question can be answered.

Currently
Theoretically 1 million drivers worldwide doing uber. 1 million cars utilized at $0 to Uber's fixed cost asset.

Autonomous Vehicle
1 million cars at $85,000 each (my guess could be higher). = $85 Billion

Just in California alone the investment would be $25.5 Billion not even counting operational costs. I would love to see the ROI and breakeven analysis on that! :roflmao:

I would love to see the look on the face of big banks as the Uber team (who has never been profitable) pitches borrowing $85 Billion to replace the $0 cars in "their" fleet. Never mind the operational costs. The cost of this investment is higher than the entire market capitalization of Uber.

Autonomous cars is a pipe dream by Engineers who are dreamers and innovators by design. The finances of it all bring it to a screeching halt.

I am specifically talking about Uber. The business case for Tesla would look different but problematic never the less.


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## Monkeyman4394

Kurt Halfyard said:


> On balance, It is my expectation that self-driving cars will cut down accidents by over 90%.
> However, people will loose their shit if their loved ones are maimed/killed by algorithm error, rather than human error, even though statistically, they are less likely to get in an accident when greater than 80% of the driving is done by A.I. It's a weird quirk in human thinking that 'whoops humans are perfect.' but WE DEMAND TECHNOLOGY TO BE 100% PERFECT if we are to switch away from people.
> 
> Don't let PERFECT be the enemy of GOOD.


Sitting in traffic on this city's major frontage road yesterday. I'm doing a little celebrating at the ridiculous tip on this order that Sonic had ready and waiting for me to pick up. Reality seems to be going my way. There's a cool breeze wafting through my window and the light is about to turn green. Wham! Woman behind me, piloting her Suburban lurches into my back bumper. She immediately jumps out, looks at the back of my car, rushes to my door and says there's no damage. I start by asking whether she's okay. She says she is. To my complete surprise, my car is unscathed. Hers is not so much(old battle damage). We pull over so I can take a picture of her insurance card. She says her boyfriend has her wallet with him at the CVS. She says she just got a very disturbing text while sitting behind me. She also says she's having an allergic skin reaction and just popped two Benadryl. She says she's a hugger and I've been nice to her. I politely decline (I hear there's a virus going around).

This is anecdotal, I know. Maybe an autonomous car would have hit me for some other reason. The human element tends to not be a very good driver.



Seamus said:


> The idea of autonomous cars for Uber has never made any financial sense to me until one very simple question can be answered.
> 
> Currently
> Theoretically 1 million drivers worldwide doing uber. 1 million cars utilized at $0 to Uber's fixed cost asset.
> 
> Autonomous Vehicle
> 1 million cars at $85,000 each (my guess could be higher). = $85 Billion
> 
> Just in California alone the investment would be $25.5 Billion not even counting operational costs. I would love to see the ROI and breakeven analysis on that! :roflmao:
> 
> I would love to see the look on the face of big banks as the Uber team (who has never been profitable) pitches borrowing $85 Billion to replace the $0 cars in "their" fleet. Never mind the operational costs. The cost of this investment is higher than the entire market capitalization of Uber.
> 
> Autonomous cars is a pipe dream by Engineers who are dreamers and innovators by design. The finances of it all bring it to a screeching halt.
> 
> I am specifically talking about Uber. The business case for Tesla would look different but problematic never the less.


But Uber seems the very picture of financial constraint and responsibility. Oh. Wait.


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## goneubering

Monkeyman4394 said:


> I've driven in NYC. Computing power is doubling at faster rates as time passes. I'm 48, and I'll see proliferation of autonomous cars in my lifetime.


The CEO of CCC Waymo says you're wrong and they've probably spent Billion$ on the SDC fantasy.


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## jeanocelot

Tampa Bay Hauler said:


> So you're saying the PAX are going to love these hard cold surfaces? That is going to be a hard sell. No pun intended.Pull the car in and flush it like a toilet. Send it back out. Wet probably. Hitch hiking is about to come back in style.


Uh, a raincoat can be easily washed, and it isn't "hard". And there is such a thing as a jet of hot dry air that could make it dry.


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## tohunt4me

REX HAVOC said:


> This is a must read for anyone who thinks driverless cars will be taking drivers jobs in the near future.
> 
> https://getpocket.com/explore/item/...or-self-driving-cars?utm_source=pocket-newtab


The Author says Uber suffers from " Technovision"
And Ignores the Human Factor.
As a Driver
I Agree !

Uber DOES NOT DABBLE IN REALITY !











goneubering said:


> The CEO of CCC Waymo says you're wrong and they've probably spent Billion$ on the SDC fantasy.


FANTASY IS CORRECT.

" TECHNOVISION FANTASY "!


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## Monkeyman4394

tohunt4me said:


> The Author says Uber suffers from " Technovision"
> And Ignores the Human Factor.
> As a Driver
> I Agree !


Their only responsibility is to their bottom line. They're also not great at that.


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## losiglow

tohunt4me said:


> The Author says Uber suffers from " Technovision"
> And Ignores the Human Factor.
> As a Driver
> I Agree !
> 
> Uber DOES NOT DABBLE IN REALITY !
> View attachment 507827
> 
> 
> 
> FANTASY IS CORRECT.
> 
> " TECHNOVISION FANTASY "!


This is what I've said before. Even a remote possibility of a glitch or hack with SDC's would be unacceptable. The safety measures of their network would have to be on the level of the airline travel industry and resilience to errors or hacks on bank grade encryption. Just imagine if a hacker got into the system and commanded every car on that network to suddenly turn 90 degrees. The freeway would be bathed in blood.

How it is that Uber and Tesla thought there would be level 5 autonomous vehicles in the near future is beyond me. The matter of the car driving itself is already a giant hurdle but only a small piece of the puzzle, even when they can get it perfected which in and of itself is going to be quite a while. Legalities, network security, insurance issues and the infrastructure likely needed to allow the car to operate in adverse conditions are huge issues they'll also need to address.


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## Tampa Bay Hauler

jeanocelot said:


> Uh, a raincoat can be easily washed, and it isn't "hard". And there is such a thing as a jet of hot dry air that could make it dry.


Sure,keep adding all of this expensive new tech. That's what this thread is about. Drivers doing this free and on their own time. No Robocars are going to be out anytime soon. Today's drivers are not going to lose their jobs over your raincoats.


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## Cereal Killer

jeanocelot said:


> Uh, a raincoat can be easily washed, and it isn't "hard". And there is such a thing as a jet of hot dry air that could make it dry.


I'm inventing a fully autonomous female. You can program her to wake you up with a BJ. She'll be able to clean you up, shower you and dress you for work. I'm thinking of a warehouse where she'd go clean herself up every week and come back with brand new lingerie.


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## REX HAVOC

Tampa Bay Hauler said:


> So you're saying the PAX are going to love these hard cold surfaces? That is going to be a hard sell. No pun intended.Pull the car in and flush it like a toilet. Send it back out. Wet probably. Hitch hiking is about to come back in style.


Like a ride a Magic Mountain.


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## Areyousure

If the car can drive itself then cleaning itself should be easy peasy.


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## REX HAVOC

Cereal Killer said:


> I'm inventing a fully autonomous female. You can program her to wake you up with a BJ. She'll be able to clean you up, shower you and dress you for work. I'm thinking of a warehouse where she'd go clean herself up every week and come back with brand new lingerie.


Watch the Netflix show "Human." They have robot hookers.


Seamus said:


> The idea of autonomous cars for Uber has never made any financial sense to me until one very simple question can be answered.
> 
> Currently
> Theoretically 1 million drivers worldwide doing uber. 1 million cars utilized at $0 to Uber's fixed cost asset.
> 
> Autonomous Vehicle
> 1 million cars at $85,000 each (my guess could be higher). = $85 Billion
> 
> Just in California alone the investment would be $25.5 Billion not even counting operational costs. I would love to see the ROI and breakeven analysis on that! :roflmao:
> 
> I would love to see the look on the face of big banks as the Uber team (who has never been profitable) pitches borrowing $85 Billion to replace the $0 cars in "their" fleet. Never mind the operational costs. The cost of this investment is higher than the entire market capitalization of Uber.
> 
> Autonomous cars is a pipe dream by Engineers who are dreamers and innovators by design. The finances of it all bring it to a screeching halt.
> 
> I am specifically talking about Uber. The business case for Tesla would look different but problematic never the less.


I think they could make it work by partnering with automakers. The automakers, lets say Ford and GM agreed to supply a set number of cars per year with self-driving technology at a negotiated cost. Uber would then pay for the car in monthly installments like a car loan or lease and the automakers would service the vehicle up to say 100K miles. Once the car reached the mileage cap it would be sold or scraped for parts. Uber would have to pay for basic maintenance and anything major would be covered under the lease agreement. This would keep the automakers profitable and Uber would get their cars at a pay as you go arrangement. I think it would work fine and much less then paying for a driver who want min wage and health benefits. They just need the self-driving technology to be more advanced to make it work. They wouldn't replace all of the drivers at once. They'd replace say 10 percent a year until they got to 100% autonomous.


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## Monkeyman4394

REX HAVOC said:


> Watch the Netflix show "Human." They have robot hookers.


Even better, check out Deus Ex.


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## CarpeNoctem

Monkeyman4394 said:


> I've driven in NYC. Computing power is doubling at faster rates as time passes. I'm 48, and I'll see proliferation of autonomous cars in my lifetime.


I think there will be municipal controlled cars before large amounts of autonomous car are on the road.


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## Tampa Bay Hauler

Monkeyman4394 said:


> I've driven in NYC. Computing power is doubling at faster rates as time passes. I'm 48, and I'll see proliferation of autonomous cars in my lifetime.


That's wonderful for you Sir. Most of us don't have a chance of living to 100 years of age.


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## Monkeyman4394

Tampa Bay Hauler said:


> That's wonderful for you Sir. Most of us don't have a chance of living to 100 years of age.


Yeah. It's going to be amazing.


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## jeanocelot

Monkeyman4394 said:


> Even better, check out Deus Ex.


I thought the way that the robot-babe manipulated the geek to get himself locked in the room was a perfect representation of female behavior.


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## Monkeyman4394

jeanocelot said:


> I thought the way that the robot-babe manipulated the geek to get himself locked in the room was a perfect representation of female behavior.


Jean, what the ****, man? Double what the ****. Misogyny and ruining endings.


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## Oscar Levant

7


REX HAVOC said:


> This is a must read for anyone who thinks driverless cars will be taking drivers jobs in the near future.
> 
> https://getpocket.com/explore/item/...or-self-driving-cars?utm_source=pocket-newtab


I predicted this four years ago. They'll have to be programmed to be cleaned every few trips, and then there will have to be a lot where the cars are stored and worked on, with technicians, washing facilities, etc.

This is fantasy, driverless cars in rideshare.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn

Sometimes things don't go right, they turn into an absolute disaster. Part of our job, and one of the most overlooked by these companies, is the act of getting the customer to _get out of the car_.

One of my all time weirdest stories,

I rolled up at the hospital late night one day. The hospital staff tell me i'm driving this old guy home on the hospital account and my paperwork is all set up already when i get the fare to do that.

OK great.

"he's kind of out of it, he has dementia or something"

"But his son is there?"

"Yeah"

OK i drive to the dudes house, it's on a dirt/grass road and TO THIS DAY there's no google maps done, I just checked...
(Molly Loop Longwood) is the street/city you guys can look it up on google maps if your interested.

The mailboxes are at the road about 300+ feet from the houses and half of the "buildings" shacks, shitholes, garbage piles, whatever word you want to use don't have addresses on the buildings.

So there i am with an old guy, demented (as in dimentia) an ambiguous destination, grass/dirt road. And a customer who is incapable of operating on his own... and supposedly his son is "Home"

I can't find the house, no house numbers, no mailboxes, It's 2:00 am, I'm on a dirt road and this crazy old guy is just... not any help at all.

"Which house is yours?"

I've had more productive conservations with dogs. Heck i've had more productive conservations with a fricken wall.

I call dispatch and say i can't find the house, as half the buildings have no numbers, the numbers are out of order, and this guy is incapable of getting me to his house.

"Uhh google says it's... well ****..."

"And the satalite i'm seeing off google? The current trailers are different from what's here now.. Can you call the hospital and see if you can get the son's number who is supposed to be here?"

"Hold on... what the hell did you get yourself into Stevie?"

"Reality is there's a bunch of shacks/trailers that arn't on google maps, i wouldn't put it past him living in one of those either, and it's also pitch F black here as well"

10 minutes later

"The hospital can't get ahold of the son"

"I'm taking him back to the hospital"

"You can't do that"

"I don't care if i get paid or not, i really don't think i should just kick a demented old man out of the car at 2 something in the morning"

"Hold on... i'm calling the police"

10 minutes later... _The police can't find Molly loop._

They call me asking for directions find me.

"What's this dudes problem won't he get out?"

"I have no idea which house is his and i'm 99% sure he has dimentia or something, his son is supposed to be here and i can't find the address.

"What number is it?"

"XYZ"

"Uhh..." the police proceed to go on foot with flashlights searching for XYZ Molly loop.

The number XYZ is nowhere to be found, demented old dude could be on the moon for all he knows.

And YES it's his _legal address_ on his state ID.

There's also a bunch of RVs sitting around as well. ALmost none of which have an address on them, more than likely some of the addresses have multiple RVs.

"Has he done anything illegal?"

"NO, would you leave this guy here if your supposed to be meeting someone to take him off your hands?"

"What's the son's name?"

20 minutes and 8 phone calls later,

The police use their box and lo and behold.. the son is locked up 3 counties away.

"Now WTTF we do?" The cops ask.

The police call their supervisor... _AN HOUR_ later... I'm driving old dude back to the ER. One of the police follows me to the E.R. Back to the pickup location, the social worker meets me at the entrance to the ER.

"Tag your it..."

"Why didn't you take him home?"

"We couldn't find the address" THE COP tells her.

"What about his son"

"he's in jail"

"Well what is he doing back here?"

"We couldn't find the address" the officer tells her.

"your taking him to jail?"

"NO... he hasn't done anything illegal, nor can we just leave him wandering around... so tag your it" I tell her. I help the old guy out of the car and he walks over to a park bench outside the ER and my tires and squealing in the parking lot.

One of the worst fares i ever had that didn't result in having to take a car out of commission. The hospital tried for 3 hours to get rid of the guy by dumping them off ON US and in the end I hear a county social worker had ended up getting him committed to a nursing home paid for by the state. The police gave dispatch the order to deny him service

How would a self driving car have handled that?
Would it have let the old dude sit in it until the sun came up?

How many _hours_ would it take before a supervisor in Pakistan would call the cops to have him removed from the car?

Or would it have just made a loud noise where google says is the address to get him to leave the car and yelled at him or whatever and he could have wandered off and gotten himself run over if he made it to the street or even tripping and falling wandering around.


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