# Why Uber Stock Is Tanking.



## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

We know already but the public are just starting to wake up.

Dara not having a pathway to profit pretending to be cool with it doesn't help.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-ubers-stock-is-tanking-192901954.html
"Not helping matters was Khosrowshahi's flippant attitude on the need for Uber to reach profitability sooner rather than later."


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## TheDevilisaParttimer (Jan 2, 2019)

Burn, burn, burn!!!


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## Pax Collector (Feb 18, 2018)

Took wayyyyy longer than it should.


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## kevin92009 (Sep 11, 2016)

TheDevilisaParttimer said:


> Burn, burn, burn!!!
> 
> View attachment 344534


hell yeah , let me pour gas on the flames.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Pax Collector said:


> Took wayyyyy longer than it should.


Most people, even investors, haven't taken weeks and months to really evaluate Uber like we drivers on this forum have.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Majority of the stocks, once it approaches the low, it will crack it and establish a newer low.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

mbd said:


> Majority of the stocks, once it approaches the low, it will crack it and establish a newer low.


Just like driver per mile rates,


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

It will be interesting to see what happens to Lyft’s stock when the lock up period ends on August 19. Could portend what will happen to Uber’s stock at lock up expiration.


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## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

1.5xorbust said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens to Lyft's stock when the lock up period ends on August 19. Could portend what will happen to Uber's stock at lock up expiration.


Maybe you can briefly explain the "lock up period" remark; I found this but it doesn't really clarify if for me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greater-fool-theory-uber-stock-152113348.html
I take it that there's a pool of stock that cannot be issued yet by Uber? Is that right? What would the reason for that be? You'll have to pardon my ignorance on this.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

1.5xorbust said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens to Lyft's stock when the lock up period ends on August 19. Could portend what will happen to Uber's stock at lock up expiration.


Lyft has less shares than Uber, less float with higher short%... insider selling most likely will not be a problem for them . so it can be more dangerous when going higher. Small company , and they can show growth better than Uber.
Lyft vs Uber stock performance from the lows- lyft has way better gains due to better growth rate, lower float and a higher short interest ( mm's and crooks can manipulate the stock better)...
Total float Uber 1.1 billion shares vs 191 million for Lyft now.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

1.5xorbust said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens to Lyft's stock when the lock up period ends on August 19. Could portend what will happen to Uber's stock at lock up expiration.


Right around the Corner !


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## TemptingFate (May 2, 2019)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> Maybe you can briefly explain the "lock up period" remark; I found this but it doesn't really clarify if for me.
> 
> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greater-fool-theory-uber-stock-152113348.html
> I take it that there's a pool of stock that cannot be issued yet by Uber? Is that right? What would the reason for that be? You'll have to pardon my ignorance on this.


Uber granted a billion dollars worth of stock and stock options to their employees as a reward for their service to the company. Executives got tens of millions of dollars worth, middle management got a few hundred thousand, regular employees got a few thousand.

The employees can't sell the stock until the lock-up period expires, 90 days after the date of the IPO. Some options can't be exercised until 6 months or 1 year after the IPO date. That's to prevent a massive dump of stock that will dilute the value and reduce the price.

The stock price is declining now because early investors are getting out while they can. This makes the employees even more eager to sell so they can cash out before the price goes even lower, causing the stock to crater in an avalanche of selling.

Where it ends, nobody knows. Until Uber can show a profit, there isn't much upside potential.


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## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

TemptingFate said:


> Uber granted a billion dollars worth of stock and stock options to their employees as a reward for their service to the company. Executives got tens of millions of dollars worth, middle management got a few hundred thousand, regular employees got a few thousand.
> 
> The employees can't sell the stock until the lock-up period expires, 90 days after the date of the IPO. Some options can't be exercised until 6 months or 1 year after the IPO date. That's to prevent a massive dump of stock that will dilute the value and reduce the price.
> 
> ...


Thanks -- got it. There was another recent thread here citing a news article that noted that, according to Uber, something like 3.9 billion of the 5.2 billion lost in the first quarter of this year were bonuses paid to employees. Presumably, those bonuses -- whatever form they might have taken -- are something distinct from the stock options that are under consideration here.


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## Drivincrazy (Feb 14, 2016)

Sure seems like a lot of money is going to insiders in various forms. That can't be good for investors...even insider investors...dilution and a plunge could spell disaster in the next 3+ months.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

New all time low set today. $33.78 

And it's still early.


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## Alabama Lou (Feb 4, 2019)

Yeah wait until bond yields drop past zero. Cant happen say you? Switzerland is into negative rates already.

When bond yields go below zero the bondholder no longer receives yield and instead now has to pay yield.

The yield curve is inverted today on 2's/10's and has historically been an indicator of impending recession.

Debt on balance sheets become the plague.


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## wearenotthesame (Aug 9, 2019)

if i made 50+ million a year i probably wouldn't care about profit either no incentive in profit

lower stock price means executives willmake more by staying busy right?

1 billion + rides were for 3 peoples homes & salaries how many million hours of labor is that at approx 15 minutes per ride?


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## KevinH (Jul 13, 2014)

TemptingFate said:


> Uber granted a billion dollars worth of stock and stock options to their employees as a reward for their service to the company. Executives got tens of millions of dollars worth, middle management got a few hundred thousand, regular employees got a few thousand.
> 
> The employees can't sell the stock until the lock-up period expires, 90 days after the date of the IPO. Some options can't be exercised until 6 months or 1 year after the IPO date. That's to prevent a massive dump of stock that will dilute the value and reduce the price.
> 
> ...


A couple of questions:
What percentage of employee stock grants were stock options rather than stock?
What was the buy price for the options? I read that the last funding round from Softbank was priced at $45.


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## kingcorey321 (May 20, 2018)

stop looking @ just 1 stock. almost every stock is down today . let it crash it needs to settle . if (spy) goes to 240 my market tracker . i suggest going long on every position . it will be a very good entry point to make some serious cash 
here is why market is being slammed today . people are just shorting the positions 
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...-german-economy-contracts-2019-08-14?mod=bnbh


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

kingcorey321 said:


> stop looking @ just 1 stock. almost every stock is down today . let it crash it needs to settle . if (spy) goes to 240 my market tracker . i suggest going long on every position . it will be a very good entry point to make some serious cash
> here is why market is being slammed today . people are just shorting the positions
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...-german-economy-contracts-2019-08-14?mod=bnbh


The S&P 500 is down 2.37% and UBER is down 6.87%, so there's that.


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## bpm45 (May 22, 2017)

KevinH said:


> A couple of questions:
> What percentage of employee stock grants were stock options rather than stock?
> What was the buy price for the options? I read that the last funding round from Softbank was priced at $45.


Any options issued have an exercise price of the stock's price on the day they were issued. If the stock price was $45 and you were issued 1,000 options, you make no money unless the stock price is above $45 when you exercise them. You only owe tax when you exercise options, as ordinary income, not capital gains

The employee options typically vest over a few years. The company recognises an accounting cost for the value of that option according to the Black-Scholes options pricing model or uses the market price of similar options available for trade. If the options expire worthless, the company recognises that prior cost as a gain.

Options are typically used before a company goes public and restricted stock is used more for incentives after IPO. Sometimes they eliminate restricted stock for most employees and utilize a subsidized stock purchase plan.

The accounting problems with employee options led to a number of historic scandals so most companies issue restricted stock that vests over a similar period of years. With restricted stock, the employee owes taxes at each vesting period on the ordinary income of the full price of the stock vested that period, but the company recognises the full cost of the stock grant on its income statement. After that point, any gains or losses are capital gains or losses to the employee and subject to the tax advantages of capital gains.

Most of the stock costs incurred in the recent quarters were related to conversation of options purchased by early investors than had the feature they be converted to stock at the time of the IPO.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

Dear Investors:

In order to promote growth and more widespread holding of our stock, we have lowered the price of the stock. You will make more money with this scheme because it's exactly what we did to the rider fares and driver pay. Worked then and it will work now. 

Sincerely,

The Marketing Department at Uber


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## kevin92009 (Sep 11, 2016)

TemptingFate said:


> Uber granted a billion dollars worth of stock and stock options to their employees as a reward for their service to the company. Executives got tens of millions of dollars worth, middle management got a few hundred thousand, regular employees got a few thousand.
> 
> The employees can't sell the stock until the lock-up period expires, 90 days after the date of the IPO. Some options can't be exercised until 6 months or 1 year after the IPO date. That's to prevent a massive dump of stock that will dilute the value and reduce the price.
> 
> ...


and the drivers got nothing Except pay cuts


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> The S&P 500 is down 2.37% and UBER is down 6.87%, so there's that.


Kinda been the pattern all week. Yesterday the market was going north while Uber was going south. Market going a little south today but Uber is giving it plenty to chase.

Think it might struggle to find a floor before the hold period for Lyft shareholders ends on the 18th? There's an underlining fear a run on Lyft stock gets reflected on Uber.


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## VanGuy (Feb 15, 2019)

Is it all Lyft unlocked on the 18th? I thought I read somewhere that Officers and Directors were getting an early out and to heck with everyone else.


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## nouberipo (Jul 24, 2018)

kingcorey321 said:


> stop looking @ just 1 stock. almost every stock is down today . let it crash it needs to settle . if (spy) goes to 240 my market tracker . i suggest going long on every position . it will be a very good entry point to make some serious cash
> here is why market is being slammed today . people are just shorting the positions
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...-german-economy-contracts-2019-08-14?mod=bnbh


Uber stock has actually been in free fall all week not just today. Granted the macro environment is likely helping push the price down but the price fall didn't start today nor was it instigated by the current market drop. as for an entry point, I know you are a driver and contribute some great messages to the board so I was somewhat surprised to read that you think it will have a good entry point. Uber is not worth the investment in any way, shape, or form other than to short it. Anyone who has invested in this charade that is socio-culturally irredemable deserves to lose their investment in the company and then some. I have never hated a company as much as I hate Uber (Lyft is next up on my list) as I see them taking from drivers, passengers, communities in which the drivers and paxoles could spend the money being taken by Uber/Lyft, and now investors (ok I don't feel bad that they are taking from investors who supported this house of cards).



mbd said:


> Majority of the stocks, once it approaches the low, it will crack it and establish a newer low.


which as happened today.....made my day seeing the new low


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

VanGuy said:


> Is it all Lyft unlocked on the 18th? I thought I read somewhere that Officers and Directors were getting an early out and to heck with everyone else.


Think they bailed on listing on the NASDAQ?


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## Don'tchasethesurge (Dec 27, 2016)

Lower stock price means higher investment lol just like lower rate means more riders. They will be okay. The top will still get a big check!


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## VanGuy (Feb 15, 2019)

everythingsuber said:


> Think they bailed on listing on the NASDAQ?


No, I must have read wrong or was misinformed that the lockup was only ending a month early for the higher ups and the regular employees still had to wait a month.


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

These guys just annoy me. Its fairly obvious they do not do their homework on stocks. It seems more likely they just put out there as they are told and hope the market rises to meet their targets. Its very clear that they obviously have no idea what Ubers core business model is and its shortcomings.

http://www.alphafinews.com/earnings...your-business-uber-technologies-inc-nyseuber/
"we can see that the current consensus target price on shares is $51.57. Analysts often put in a lot of work to study stocks that they cover."


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## warsaw (Apr 8, 2017)

Wait for the other shoe to drop, before risking any serious money investing in this turd, while posing as a venerable company.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

everythingsuber said:


> These guys just annoy me. Its fairly obvious they do not do their homework on stocks. It seems more likely they just put out there as they are told and hope the market rises to meet their targets. Its very clear that they obviously have no idea what Ubers core business model is and its shortcomings.
> 
> http://www.alphafinews.com/earnings...your-business-uber-technologies-inc-nyseuber/
> "we can see that the current consensus target price on shares is $51.57. Analysts often put in a lot of work to study stocks that they cover."


LOL

$51.57??!! My consensus is $5 per share for Uber and I'm starting to think I've been too generous.


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## TemptingFate (May 2, 2019)

I put all my money on Uber today at $34.5. 
What's the worst that can happen? I'll have to go out and drive for Uber again?


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## bpm45 (May 22, 2017)

$13b in revenues. Growth has flat lined ( qtr to qtr is the proper comparison) and losses are massive. Market cap should be $20b at most, or 1/3 of today. It should be a $12 stock at best.


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## ABC123DEF (Jun 9, 2015)

I think the tech world is reaching a point of equilibrium...plus Foober just makes  up as they go using a lot of big words to con - I mean IMPRESS - investors. Also all these new flavors of the week are popping up with nothing to make any of them unique. Iphone sales are down. People aren't rushing out to buy the latest tech junk like they once were.


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## wearenotthesame (Aug 9, 2019)

penny stock
worse than Enron & madoff combined the app is 90% human trafficking attempts & lyft still trying to cut rates

literally everything uber Lyft says or does is a lie and fraud and they got to ipo

they will rename ponzi scams with the uber brand

it has to be bizzaro world its so funny when i turn on x or eats are they serious has not 1 law maker, lawyer, government agent actually drove for a day & accepted every ride sent can they not read .60 (Lyft now .45 per mile) on billions of receipts?


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

everythingsuber said:


> We know already but the public are just starting to wake up.
> 
> Dara not having a pathway to profit pretending to be cool with it doesn't help.
> 
> ...


Let's take a look at this. uber is losing billions every year, and have been since the beginning.

Venture capital finally dried up, and Uber went to the banks, they said no.

At that juncture, the ONLY way to get cash to continue operations was to sell stock.

But, that means earnings reports, which aren't going to be good, an so the stock will tank.

When UBer first sent me an email to buy their stock, I thought I was going to buy a block, but sell it short.

I should have, and that is very clear to me now. But here's the reality. If it continues to crash, then UBer will fold.

A high profile valueless stock can't be sold (very well), and without revenue to continue operations, bankruptcy is imminent.

I'm seriously considering purchasing a taxi medallion, given that, in my town , they are cheap now and their value will soar if UBer and Lyft fold.

HOWEVER, if Uber is reading this ( which I doubt ) but if they are, here's advice that will take you to profitability:

Raise your rates to what Yellow Cab ( or the largest local taxi company ) is charging, and compete on service.

You wll lose some customers, but you will become profitable, as Uber has the advantage that hybrid insurance
is cheaper than taxicab insurance.

That fact will give UBer the edge over taxi and limo companies, which are historically unprofitable.



wearenotthesame said:


> if i made 50+ million a year i probably wouldn't care about profit either no incentive in profit
> 
> lower stock price means executives willmake more by staying busy right?
> 
> ...


Actually, the meme is not correct. Taxis do NOT charge a continous time rate, it's only when the car goes slower than 11 or 12 mph. UBer, however, does, and so the timed rate must be averaged with the mileage rate, to get the true comparison to Taxis.

In my city, Taxis charge about $3 per mile. With Uber, factoring in the timed rate, it's about half of that, but that's on my end, on the retail end, its closer to what Taxis charge, maybe 75% to 80% of what taxis charge. However, on short trips, the fares are pretty close. Taximeters have the 'flag drop' fee, but uber has BOTH a service fee and a booking fee. On the other hand, taxis have been forced to withhold raising their rates since Uber began, so we can argue taht taxis would have been more by now but for Uber


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## stpetej (Jul 3, 2017)

everythingsuber said:


> We know already but the public are just starting to wake up.
> 
> Dara not having a pathway to profit pretending to be cool with it doesn't help.
> 
> ...


Not a financial genius here, but I still can't figure out why anyone would invest in a company which has never been profitable and has a history of huge losses.

This part cracked me up: "Uber failed to give investors a path to profitability." Well, duh. Uber failed to give drivers a path to profitability.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

In Other News 
Super Massive Black Hole at center of Milky way threatens to swallow Universe.

Makes Uber debt look smaller. . .


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

stpetej said:


> Not a financial genius here, but I still can't figure out why anyone would invest in a company which has never been profitable and has a history of huge losses.
> 
> This part cracked me up: "Uber failed to give investors a path to profitability." Well, duh. Uber failed to give drivers a path to profitability.


Exactly. Ubers customers are it's drivers.

THIS IS A REALITY.

Now is it selling its drivers a good product or just the opportunity to be exploited?


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

So if Uber files Chapter 11, does someone buy the app and relaunch it?
It's their biggest asset. Probably worth a million!


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Oscar Levant said:


> Let's take a look at this. uber is losing billions every year, and have been since the beginning.
> 
> Venture capital finally dried up, and Uber went to the banks, they said no.
> 
> ...


Don't waste your hard earned money on a medallion. Uber's not going to fold but they will go through more pain.



stpetej said:


> Not a financial genius here, but I still can't figure out why anyone would invest in a company which has never been profitable and has a history of huge losses.
> 
> This part cracked me up: "Uber failed to give investors a path to profitability." Well, duh. Uber failed to give drivers a path to profitability.


I blame Intel. Their report claimed there's a massive $7 TRILLION market out there and investors thought Uber could deliver a good chunk of that.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...rillion-promise-of-self-driving-vehicles.html


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

goneubering said:


> Don't waste your hard earned money on a medallion. Uber's not going to fold but they will go through more pain.
> 
> 
> I blame Intel. Their report claimed there's a massive $7 TRILLION market out there and investors thought Uber could deliver a good chunk of that.
> ...


Ever the optimist.


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## kevin92009 (Sep 11, 2016)

nouberipo said:


> Uber stock has actually been in free fall all week not just today. Granted the macro environment is likely helping push the price down but the price fall didn't start today nor was it instigated by the current market drop. as for an entry point, I know you are a driver and contribute some great messages to the board so I was somewhat surprised to read that you think it will have a good entry point. Uber is not worth the investment in any way, shape, or form other than to short it. Anyone who has invested in this charade that is socio-culturally irredemable deserves to lose their investment in the company and then some. I have never hated a company as much as I hate Uber (Lyft is next up on my list) as I see them taking from drivers, passengers, communities in which the drivers and paxoles could spend the money being taken by Uber/Lyft, and now investors (ok I don't feel bad that they are taking from investors who supported this house of cards).
> 
> 
> which as happened today.....made my day seeing the new low


 keep falling baby


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

everythingsuber said:


> Exactly. Ubers customers are it's drivers.
> 
> THIS IS A REALITY.
> 
> Now is it selling its drivers a good product or just the opportunity to be exploited?


Time for Drivers to find Another Broker !



TwoFiddyMile said:


> So if Uber files Chapter 11, does someone buy the app and relaunch it?
> It's their biggest asset. Probably worth a million!


Maybe 2


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## Ignatz (Aug 3, 2019)

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/D...s-for-Potential-Uber-Expansion-542866411.html


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

tohunt4me said:


> Time for Drivers to find Another Broker !
> 
> 
> Maybe 2


$2


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## ABC123DEF (Jun 9, 2015)

Ignatz said:


> https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/D...s-for-Potential-Uber-Expansion-542866411.html


3,000 jobs???? Didn't they just lay off 400!??? What the actual?


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## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> Thanks -- got it. There was another recent thread here citing a news article that noted that, according to Uber, something like 3.9 billion of the 5.2 billion lost in the first quarter of this year were bonuses paid to employees. Presumably, those bonuses -- whatever form they might have taken -- are something distinct from the stock options that are under consideration here.


Probably the "bonuses" were almost exactly the shares being discussed. 
And, you can bet the majority of their staff will dump as soon as the option hits.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

Asificarewhatyoudontthink said:


> Probably the "bonuses" were almost exactly the shares being discussed.
> And, you can bet the majority of their staff will dump as soon as the option hits.


At this rate, there may be no buyers left when the lockup period expires.

UBER $32.97 now and still falling.

If my math is correct, Uber looks to be down 25% from their IPO price of $45.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> At this rate, there may be no buyers left when the lockup period expires.
> 
> UBER $32.97 now and still falling.
> 
> If my math is correct, Uber looks to be down 25% from their IPO price of $45.


There's always buyers. I'll even be a buyer at $5 a share but I doubt it will ever drop that low.


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

goneubering said:


> There's always buyers. I'll even be a buyer at $5 a share but I doubt it will ever drop that low.


Uber actual tangible value. What it is actually worth in real asset's as of December 31st 2018 as per its S-1 filing is 2 cents a share.

That's about where it will end.


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## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> At this rate, there may be no buyers left when the lockup period expires.
> 
> UBER $32.97 now and still falling.
> 
> If my math is correct, Uber looks to be down 25% from their IPO price of $45.


Check out the historic stock prices on Facebook from IPO on.
Then look at other similar "failures".

If the stock rebounded to 60.00 anyone buying at 32.97 almost doubled their investment.

How could it double?
Eliminate all of the wasted suit and tie money as well as the debacle that is too many engineers/marketing/research and you have profits where they were once hemorrhaging.

And the stock would not only recover they would boost it quite nicely.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

Wow, all this death-wish thinking, I agree it could happen (but maybe not as fast as you all think), but why wish for the death of something that rings the cash register regularly when played with common sense? Be careful of what you wish for.


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## Lessthanminimum (Nov 5, 2017)

Okay so Uber lost 5 billion last quarter. Can you imagine if they had to pay for the upkeep on all the cars they destroy. What would their losses be then?

When Uber becomes all autonomous vehicles someone's going to have to pay for the upkeep on all those cars. So what exactly is their path to profitability?


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

everythingsuber said:


> Uber actual tangible value. What it is actually worth in real asset's as of December 31st 2018 as per its S-1 filing is 2 cents a share.
> 
> That's about where it will end.


Two cents won't happen to a company with many billions in revenue. Dara just needs to get serious about cutting costs. So far he's been making small changes but Wall St wants to see a lot more.


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## Drivincrazy (Feb 14, 2016)

In the meantime competition has time to assess and enter the picture...GM, Didi, Tesla, Ford, Waymo, et al.

Surge only.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

Asificarewhatyoudontthink said:


> If the stock rebounded to 60.00 anyone buying at 32.97 almost doubled their investment.


Yes, and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.


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## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

So just out of curiosity.


Uber tanks.
Goes out of business.

What do y’all do?


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## kevin92009 (Sep 11, 2016)

sellkatsell44 said:


> So just out of curiosity.
> 
> Uber tanks.
> Goes out of business.
> ...


back to the office for me


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

sellkatsell44 said:


> So just out of curiosity.
> 
> Uber tanks.
> Goes out of business.
> ...


Someone buys the tech and launches a new startup. People are not going to stop pinging cars.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

goneubering said:


> Don't waste your hard earned money on a medallion. Uber's not going to fold but they will go through more pain.
> 
> 
> I blame Intel. Their report claimed there's a massive $7 TRILLION market out there and investors thought Uber could deliver a good chunk of that.


There are far too many variables in play that really render that prediction on driverless Ubers meaningless, the big one is that we are a long ways off before that value does have meaning. The transition from horse and buggy to motorized cars took some 20 years.

Companies that lose billions every year, year after year, without showing promise of profitability, do not always last forever. Uber will need more cash, and they have put themselves in a corner where they only place they can raise it is to sell stock, which is currently on the path of diminishing returns, or they could sell out to a larger, cash rich, company, like Google.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Someone buys the tech and launches a new startup. People are not going to stop pinging cars.


True story!! Rideshare is here to stay in some form or another.


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## Lessthanminimum (Nov 5, 2017)

goneubering said:


> True story!! Rideshare is here to stay in some form or another.


It's called taxis where the price of vehicle maintenance and living wage is actually worked into the formula.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

If Uber/lyft go under...


By my estimation
Only about half of the business will go to taxis, less in rural areas.

People who went from taking the bus for $2.50 to taking an Uber for $10 won’t jump to $30 for a taxi.

There’s also going to be a boom to rental cars.


What it means for us?

Anyone working less than 50 hours a week isn’t going to find a place at most an companies, anyone who won’t work a 12 hour shift won’t either,


Also just working on the weekends won’t be viable either, for several reasons.

1. Some cab companies don’t do shifts, only weekly rentals. You need to put in 40+++ hours to make that work, probobly most of peak hours and another 20 or more beyond peak.

2. Of the companies that did/do shifts, Pre-Uber, Friday/Saturday night shifts were almost impossible get for part timers and Saturday/Sunday day shifts tend to just blow, and always have,

Currently Monday/Friday day shifts are the highest demand and hardest to get.

Quite simply, when shifts do exist the shifts you really want are the hardest to get for part timers, if not impossible. My experience was I had to be reserved to get them. (Having a reserved car requires 19+ shifts a month where I drive)

If taxis absorb the for-hire business that’s left. It’s going to be the hard core 50+ hour a week drivers who stick around.

1/5 of the current Uber/lyft drivers getting 1/2 the current business by my estimation.


Everyone else?

No clue..


But if it gets to the point I can’t sign out s taxi for decent shifts I’ll just go owner/operator again.


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

KevinH said:


> What was the buy price for the options? I read that the last funding round from Softbank was priced at $45.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

I'd like to see something like Uber which had better milage and per minute pay. I'm really digging not paying a weekly franchise fee.
Even tho I know I am, Uber makes a ton of dough off me on every job. But my daily cash out is high cause I'm a motherfraker of a driver.
I produce!
But they could come up $0.25 per mile and $0.19 more per minute and then the numbers would be more equitable.

Also I havent gotten volume like this since my days where I fed Myself fat in my own cab company.


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## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> Yes, and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.


Track that back a bit.
You are comparing a thing that has to be changed with another thing that has to be changed...but neither are impossible or, even, all that unlikely in todays world.

Look at Facebooks IPO and their "failure".

All that has to happen is that Uber corporate trims the fat to the point the company is exactly what it always should have been... A ****ing money printing machine. How many millions of rides do they have on books each year? Get rid of the waste, quit trying to run a multi billion dollar revenue corp as if it were the 80billion dollar tech startup that TK thought it was (it never was). And,bingo, profits maketh the corp


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

Asificarewhatyoudontthink said:


> Track that back a bit.
> You are comparing a thing that has to be changed with another thing that has to be changed...but neither are impossible or, even, all that unlikely in todays world.
> 
> Look at Facebooks IPO and their "failure".
> ...


Or, I was making a joke.

I agree that with competent management Uber could be profitable, I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

What I do see, however, is Travis pointing the finger at Dara over the terrible performance of Uber's IPO and attempting to oust him and take over again. And Travis only knows how to raise money from investors, he has no idea how to make Uber profitable.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Lessthanminimum said:


> It's called taxis where the price of vehicle maintenance and living wage is actually worked into the formula.


I doubt we will ever get back to a world where it's all taxis again but of course I could be wrong. I think taxis and rideshare will co-exist.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

goneubering said:


> I doubt we will ever get back to a world where it's all taxis again but of course I could be wrong. I think taxis and rideshare will co-exist.


There is no more coexistence.
Look around at the world we live in if you are capable of clear vision.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> There is no more coexistence.
> Look around at the world we live in if you are capable of clear vision.


Of course there is. Rideshare and taxis operate in all big cities. Neither one will be annihilated.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

goneubering said:


> Of course there is. Rideshare and taxis operate in all big cities. Neither one will be annihilated.


Clearly you never watched Highlander.
"There can only be one".


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Clearly you never watched Highlander.
> "There can only be one".


Look around you. What's real life and what's wishful thinking.


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## Elephant (Aug 29, 2016)

goneubering said:


> Of course there is. Rideshare and taxis operate in all big cities. Neither one will be annihilated.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/02/nyregion/taxi-drivers-suicide-nyc.html


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

You guys are forgetting one very simple fact.

Once uber/lyft fall there won't be any fat cats willing to invest big bucks into an uber clone.










Any start up will be facing competition directly against cab companies that are entrenched and won't be able to give free rides or pay driver incentives, they also "won't be uber".

They also won't be able to afford lobbying and the transportation companies could easily quickly lobby the ridesharing laws out of existence the second there's 1 shady ridesharing clone that pops up anywhere on earth and misbehaves.

Also... in many major cities the cab companies with apps will fill the void where it's possible.

In orlando will Shluber ride sharing be able to launch and compete against an entrenched cab company that already has 700 taxis and several hundred luxury vehicles on the road all currently being dispatched by app?

Without the pile of money that it took uber to launch?

There's going to be a LOT of scrutiny about ANY company that comes to fill the void and they will be under the microscope.


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## freeFromUber (Mar 1, 2016)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> Maybe you can briefly explain the "lock up period" remark; I found this but it doesn't really clarify if for me.
> 
> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greater-fool-theory-uber-stock-152113348.html
> I take it that there's a pool of stock that cannot be issued yet by Uber? Is that right? What would the reason for that be? You'll have to pardon my ignorance on this.


No, that's not entirely right. There are 1.7billion shares of uber stock issued and outstanding. About 52% of that was bought and is owned by institutional investors, i.e. mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, other corporations which usually have a long term investment horizon. Another large chunk of that 1.7billion shares are owned by employees of the company (insiders), who are prohibited from selling their shares for a certain period of time after the initial public offering (IPO), that's the lock up period. This, in theory, prevents insiders from dumping their shitty stock on the unsuspecting public and helps to maintain an orderly market during the early months of trading. That time period ends on November 8th, when potentially several hundred million shares become available for sale by the company employees. 
Given the negative news, lousy earnings and general distrust of Uber's management, a lot of employees are likely to sell at least some of their shares, which in turn will generate more selling.,,the stock price could begin to free fall as nervous investors run for the exits to get some money out of this POS. (Piece of shit).


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## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

freeFromUber said:


> No, that's not entirely right. There are 1.7billion shares of uber stock issued and outstanding. About 52% of that was bought and is owned by institutional investors, i.e. mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, other corporations which usually have a long term investment horizon. Another large chunk of that 1.7billion shares are owned by employees of the company (insiders), who are prohibited from selling their shares for a certain period of time after the initial public offering (IPO), that's the lock up period. This, in theory, prevents insiders from dumping their shitty stock on the unsuspecting public and helps to maintain an orderly market during the early months of trading. That time period ends on November 8th, when potentially several hundred million shares become available for sale by the company employees.
> Given the negative news, lousy earnings and general distrust of Uber's management, a lot of employees are likely to sell at least some of their shares, which in turn will generate more selling.,,the stock price could begin to free fall as nervous investors run for the exits to get some money out of this POS. (Piece of shit).


Thanks. I take it that the figure of 52% owned by institutional investors is known reasonably precisely because those numbers wind up being available publicly. Then there's the portion to which you refer that is in the hands of Uber employees and "locked up" until Nov 8; do we know what that percentage is, or is that figure not available as public information? Presumably that remaining 48% is split between those Uber insiders and individual and smaller organizational investors, but I'm wondering if the breakdown of that is known publicly.


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## Ubereater (Dec 25, 2015)

View attachment 345723




TwoFiddyMile said:


> There is no more coexistence.
> Look around at the world we live in if you are capable of clear vision.


One World, one .gov, one cab company ? Is that it ?


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## freeFromUber (Mar 1, 2016)

Asificarewhatyoudontthink said:


> All that has to happen is that Uber corporate trims the fat to the point the company is exactly what it always should have been... A @@@@ing money printing machine.


"Trim the fat."....are you kidding me? They are losing over $1B A QUARTER.....if you back out the one time charges in the most recent Q, they lost about $1.4B....they have to do a lot more than trim fat, they a no where close to showing even a minuscule profit, and management can not articulate a path to profitability. That's what has Wall Street worried the most. Amazon lost money for years and years but they always had a viable plan to get to profitability....uber doesn't....big difference.


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## SFOspeedracer (Jun 25, 2019)

Oscar Levant said:


> There are far too many variables in play that really render that prediction on driverless Ubers meaningless, the big one is that we are a long ways off before that value does have meaning. The transition from horse and buggy to motorized cars took some 20 years.
> 
> Companies that lose billions every year, year after year, without showing promise of profitability, do not always last forever. Uber will need more cash, and they have put themselves in a corner where they only place they can raise it is to sell stock, which is currently on the path of diminishing returns, or they could sell out to a larger, cash rich, company, like Google.


Waymo my friend. Waymo. They have given information on its pilot and testing, but have done organized. They have been "up to something" for quite sometime, as far as taking over the rideshare market with an exclamation point.

Idk why anyone at this point would not be a google stockholder. I own on both their DAQ tickers since the split.

They will be the one to end this Uber and Lyft charade with AVs


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

SFOspeedracer said:


> Waymo my friend. Waymo. They have given information on its pilot and testing, but have done organized. They have been "up to something" for quite sometime, as far as taking over the rideshare market with an exclamation point.
> 
> Idk why anyone at this point would not be a google stockholder. I own on both their DAQ tickers since the split.
> 
> They will be the one to end this Uber and Lyft charade with AVs


Waymo went "live" with their rideshare over 18 months ago. Where is it? Who drives Waymo? You? Your cousin Sue?
The Tooth fairy?


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## SFOspeedracer (Jun 25, 2019)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Waymo went "live" with their rideshare over 18 months ago. Where is it? Who drives Waymo? You? Your cousin Sue?
> The Tooth fairy?


No shit? Lmao, It's only in pilot "Live". It's lengths of travel and direction are extremely limited. I am clearly talking about the *future *of "Ride-sharing" in every major US city

If anyone is going to go full fledge with AVs, it will be Google. Not Uber, who really really really thinks they will, and whom google already settled with on the past lawsuit


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## President (Jan 16, 2018)

Uner


everythingsuber said:


> We know already but the public are just starting to wake up.
> 
> Dara not having a pathway to profit pretending to be cool with it doesn't help.
> 
> ...


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## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

freeFromUber said:


> "Trim the fat."....are you kidding me? They are losing over $1B A QUARTER.....if you back out the one time charges in the most recent Q, they lost about $1.4B....they have to do a lot more than trim fat, they a no where close to showing even a minuscule profit, and management can not articulate a path to profitability. That's what has Wall Street worried the most. Amazon lost money for years and years but they always had a viable plan to get to profitability....uber doesn't....big difference.


Yes, by "trimming the fat" it is quite simple to get Uber to profitability. 
But, and it is a Sir Mixalot pleasingly huge but, the layoffs and trimming have to be done bit by bit not all at once.
The "panic" that firing the Majority of over 18,000 worldwide full time employees would cause in the stocks would obliterate the value.
But, do that 400 to 700 at a time, for the dead weight duplicated positions and middle management, simultaneously "spinning off" (selling to suckers) the R&D on SDCs, which accounts for one of the largest single segments of wasteful spending, and you get to what this company should always have been. A massively profitable small company that runs an App and isn't trying to pretend to be something it isn't (namely a multibillion dollar tech startup. Especially since they completely suck at tech)


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## Funky Monkey (Jul 11, 2016)

everythingsuber said:


> We know already but the public are just starting to wake up.
> 
> Dara not having a pathway to profit pretending to be cool with it doesn't help.
> 
> ...


I'd be flippant as hell too if VCs were handing me billions to post massive losses every quarter "with no path to profitability." "What, me worry?"


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Funky Monkey said:


> I'd be flippant as hell too if VCs were handing me billions to post massive losses every quarter "with no path to profitability." "What, me worry?"


NOW it's time to worry.


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## Funky Monkey (Jul 11, 2016)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2019/06/02/can-uber-ever-be-profitable/#2ba669fc5785


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## Drivincrazy (Feb 14, 2016)

Wow. Uber isn't organized and disciplined enough to do all of this, presently.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

SFOspeedracer said:


> Waymo my friend. Waymo. They have given information on its pilot and testing, but have done organized. They have been "up to something" for quite sometime, as far as taking over the rideshare market with an exclamation point.
> 
> Idk why anyone at this point would not be a google stockholder. I own on both their DAQ tickers since the split.
> 
> They will be the one to end this Uber and Lyft charade with AVs


Waymo is owned by Google, and if anyone is going to make it work, they will, they are a bottomless pit of cash, eh?

That's what it is going to take, and UBer doesn't have it and I doubt they will be able to hold out until driverless cars take them to the promised land way down the road.


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## SFOspeedracer (Jun 25, 2019)

Oscar Levant said:


> Waymo is owned by Google, and if anyone is going to make it work, they will, they are a bottomless pit of cash, eh?
> 
> That's what it is going to take, and UBer doesn't have it and I doubt they will be able to hold out until driverless cars take them to the promised land way down the road.


Agree. They just got permission for end user use in California a couple weeks ago after being in Phoenix. They are really the only ones I'll take seriously with it


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## Lowestformofwit (Sep 2, 2016)

tohunt4me said:


> Right around the Corner !


Cars that fly.
Stock that won't.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Lowestformofwit said:


> Cars that fly.
> Stock that won't.


Pigs on the wing.


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## Funky Monkey (Jul 11, 2016)

"Monetize" user data is the only thing I get from that Forbes article that might be profitible


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## strongman (11 mo ago)

All Ponzi schemes come to an end eventually.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

They are subbing out too much of the business that a traditional cab company would handle in-house.

Insurance for one is a huge expense. Large cab companies usually self insure, meaning it's cheaper for them to pay all their claims out of pocket than it is to actually pay for car insurance. How close is uber to this point?

Well the point is the point where you are 100% sure that you are going to have a car accident every year.

About 20-30. That's exactly how many zeroes I intended. 20-30 vehicles total. That many vehicles puts them over this point. Insurance companies are in the business to make money and uber has long long since passed the point at which they are guaranteed to have a few car accidents every year.

They could also save boatloads of money by owning company vehicles and paying drivers less..

JK, we all know that would cost them more.

Uber's lawsuit liability at this point marks them as being doomed to fail. between customers, ADA, drivers, governments, taxes..

It's possible that once these lawsuits worm their way through the system that they are in the hole for billions more than they have.

My prediction is that eventually lawsuits will pound them into destruction, lyft to.

A third company is going to start once they fail and do things the sustainable, the lawsuit protected way, and the right way.

They will look at what brought uber/lyft down and they will build their business around not doing it the uber way.

More than likely a nation wide app is going to roll out that matches customers to lciensed operators. That "app" is going to be what uber pretends to be. A matchmaker.

More than likely they will take less than 10% of the fare, and every driver on the system will need commercial insurance, a business license, and the whole 9 yards.

in the event of an issue they will be able to wash their hands, and if a driver gets too many complaints or a serious issue they are off the app.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Haha!!!! 2019 thread.


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