# Uber: The Road Not Taken -- Why Uber’s business model keeps bleeding money—



## Ca$h4 (Aug 12, 2015)

*http://prospect.org/article/uber-road-not-taken*


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## NachonCheeze (Sep 8, 2015)

Good article...finally a journalist seems to have gotten it right


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## Drive777 (Jan 23, 2015)

This pretty much sums up everything we've debated about for years on this forum.

Now if only a few investors could read it and wake up from the pipe dream they've been living in, we might get somewhere.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

I've basically been saying this ever since I started two years ago. I never bought the idea that Uber was somehow anything other than a taxi service . Rates will have to rise or they will be toast, end of story . I think most people would continue to use the service even if it was more expensive though . Here in Seattle the buses are a nightmare to deal with and of course the traditional cabs are horrendous as well. we are still faster and cleaner than most traditional cabs which is an advantage in the marketplace that customers would be willing to pay a little more for


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## Flarpy (Apr 17, 2016)

Great article and kudos to the author who has done his homework and clearly knows a LOT. It's nice to see an author with intelligence, knowledge and writing skill. Sadly, a rare thing these days. Steven Hill, my hat is off to you.

"Can this company eventually become profitable? Nobody really knows, but* already some of the boosters and experts in autonomous vehicles are starting to walk back their previously optimistic timelines, saying that self-driving vehicles will not appear in widespread circulation for decades*. So if investors are hoping Uber will improve its bottom line by deleting drivers from its expense sheet, they likely will have a long wait indeed."​I'm sure our resident self-driving car fanboy RamzFanz will set them straight


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Flarpy said:


> I'm sure our resident self-driving car fanboy RamzFanz will set them straight


I won't need to because it's an easily verified untrue statement. But, if you like what you're hearing and it makes you feel better, roll with it.


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## Flarpy (Apr 17, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> I won't need to because it's an easily verified untrue statement.


Love it, RamzFanz never disappoints. Can't wait to see him in 2027 saying "Fleets of self-driving cars are just around the corner!"


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Flarpy said:


> Love it, RamzFanz never disappoints. Can't wait to see him in 2027 saying "Fleets of self-driving cars are just around the corner!"


You don't need to wait or even ask me, the entire world is telling you they are around the corner now.

You can pay attention, or you can play an agenda/ostrich head in the sand games, it matters not. That's the beauty of reality, opinions don't matter.

This is a race to a 14T market by what is probably the largest single effort ever undertaken by mankind. Perhaps you know more than them, but perhaps not. We will see.


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## Flarpy (Apr 17, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> This is a race to a 14T market by the largest effort ever undertaken by mankind. Perhaps you know more than them, but perhaps not. We will see.


Of course, the largest effort ever undertaken by humanity ever! I'm preparing to be impressed. Can't wait RamzFanz, I just can't wait.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Flarpy said:


> Of course, the largest effort ever undertaken by humanity ever! I'm preparing to be impressed. Can't wait RamzFanz, I just can't wait.


It probably is.

Have you ever seen anything this big? I'm 52 and I haven't while I tried to explain computers and GPS to people. This eclipses telecommunications (telegraph, phones, cell phones, and commercial satellites for communications, GPS and satellite communications).

I can never tell if you're serious or not. Most have no idea how huge this is.


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## Flarpy (Apr 17, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> It probably is.
> 
> Have you ever seen anything this big? I'm 52 and I haven't. This eclipses telecommunications (telegraph, phones, cell phones, and commercial satellites for GPS and satellite communications).
> 
> I can never tell if your serious or not. Most have no idea how huge this is.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Flarpy said:


> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law


Your analogy is so laughably reversed...I just...Poe's law?...that's so misconstrued I don't know what to say.

No worries brother. You will have experience and be able to judge these things in time. Seriously, time stamp this and come back. I may not be here, but others will. You can find something in what you could have known and teach to others later based on this post.

Remember that being wrong is always a learning opportunity.

In 2000 I could have poured tens of thousands into gold, all of my study and belief told me I should, but I didn't because I was scared. Since then I learned to believe in what I know.

However, I'm the guy who invested in banks after the housing crash when every talking head was melting down because everything they told you was moronic. Doubled our life savings in four weeks. Doubled. Doubled. Doubled.

So, let me give you a tip for the future, when the government says a business is too big to fail and pours in billions of your and your friend's tax dollars, believe them.

When the entire world tells you they are racing for a 14T market, believe them. We aren't talking billions or hundreds of billions, we're talking about a race for an annual 14 trillion. Pick your winners and losers, but for god's sake, don't live in denial!

In your entire life you may get 3-4 shots at a _no lose_ investment. See it and don't be a coward. Patience, courage, and being prepared to invest are key.

I care nothing about whether people believe me, deny me, or don't even look. I take care of my own. But no one can say I didn't point it out. The ENTIRE world is offering up an oyster right now. You COULD find the pearl in that oyster by stopping the denial and researching the opportunities. Most won't because they choose to drink, facebook, or snapchat or whatever it is losers do. Don't be sucked in by society as a victim, use your f'in head. It doesn't even take a lot, it just takes more than effortlessness.

Most of the people on here who hate me, and there are a few, are people who suffer under the idea that they can't take control of their own lives, invest in the world, and come out ahead using simple common sense. You don't have to be smart to see the obvious. You must self-force stupidity not to. People who want a "job" are self-imposed ******s. Make some god damned good decisions using your brain for once in your life. Don't be a lemming.

Listen, I HIRE lemmings all the time to do everything I don't want to do. I TRY to teach them not to be lemmings, but few listen. They like living on the edge with no future. They like being badasses or fighters against "the machine." Tattoos, drugs, run ins with the cops, it's all stupid.

Guess what? I get a new pool or home theater and they get a small percentage of what they would be worth if they only respected themselves and joined civility. I overpay them for what they are worth, and I give them opportunities, but they almost always fail in the end because they don't value themselves as much as I value them.

I love people and I hand-up people all the time. I do not cry when they fail because they choose to fail for the most part. I celebrate their wins. Losers want to lose. Winners want to win. Position means nothing. I lived in a car as a self supporting 16 year old. Many people need to learn what hard is and what kindness is.


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## TheFixer1 (Jan 29, 2017)

Uber will not change, you are all interchangeable commodities to Uber. I drove for them back in 2012 to early 2016, I left when it got out of hand with their dirt cheap rates and crap customers that entail, it was the best thing I have ever done. You can complain till the cows come home, nothing will change.
I used to make $300-$400 weekdays "for me after their cuts" and $400-$500 on Friday and Saturday with an 8-10 hour relaxing shift, even Sundays where great, great customers "who tiped" and never complained about the rates, and the list goes on.
The reason Uber keeps dropping the rates is to kill off the rest of the competition, what they did is pretty much cannibalize themselves. My mailbox with complaints to their bots had stretch for miles, they don't care and never will, always hoping that tomorrow will be a better day with this company is wishful thinking, it's nothing but a dead end.
What uber did is lower the rates add a bazillion more cars on the road which means more money for uber, not the individual driver, for uber or any corporation it's all about the numbers and the bottom line, when they used to send me and the rest of the drivers those ludicrous emails saying now that the rates are lower you will make more money "I used to email them back and ask them when are they planning to send me the wings for my car", this only works with illiterate low educated people, no matter how low or high the rate there is only so many trips a driver can accomplish in a given hour no matter what market you are in, it's called logistics, what Uber did is lower the rates "which enticed more people to use their service=more customers", and added a bazillion cars to accommodate those customers, but it did not add more fares to each individual driver, it added more fares=commission cut out of each fare for uber. The pipe dream of change and Uber, is exactly that, a pipe dream.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Uber can never raise its rates back to market rate. Its competitors would keep their rates lower, and big cities have taxis on every corner which are FAR more convenient than looking up from your iPhone every minute then calling the Uber and trying to explain to asbdududu from Eritrea what exactly a Northwest corner is.
Uber drivers are stuck at these rates until Uber finds a way to remove more $$$ from your pockets.


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## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

I'm convinced that if uber raises it's rates up to market rates... It will hemorrhage market share.

Uber can slowly raise rates and slowly bleed market share until it reaches an equilibrium where they don't lose money and don't suffer from lawsuits. This is uber's best chance at surviving, however it's possible that it will take them decades to cover their lawsuits that they are already going to be stuck with. It's also possible (and proboble) that the lawsuits will continue until they are up to market cost. Also new ride share competitors can pop up and undercut uber's new rates and take market share further ruining them.

Or they can continue on the path they are on until the lawsuits cripple them until they run out of venture capital and they collapse overnight.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> I'm convinced that if uber raises it's rates up to market rates... It will hemorrhage market share.
> 
> Uber can slowly raise rates and slowly bleed market share until it reaches an equilibrium where they don't lose money and don't suffer from lawsuits. This is uber's best chance at surviving, however it's possible that it will take them decades to cover their lawsuits that they are already going to be stuck with. It's also possible (and proboble) that the lawsuits will continue until they are up to market cost. Also new ride share competitors can pop up and undercut uber's new rates and take market share further ruining them.
> 
> Or they can continue on the path they are on until the lawsuits cripple them until they run out of venture capital and they collapse overnight.


Uber settles suits for pennies on the dollar. Unless a government entity declares Uber drivers to be employees and wins the appeals process, Uber has little to worry about. And let's be honest, if that didn't happen in fascist CA or Seattle it probably won't anywhere.

No company can out lowball Uber. It takes too much cash. Lyft was rumored to be on it's last leg until GM stepped in.

Daimler has now partnered with Uber to provide their self driving car fleet at no cost. It was the final piece they needed.

Uber is well funded for its current operations after selling the China operations and the deal with Daimler will almost certainly draw new investors.

In an extreme situation where Uber did run low on funds and the SDCs are delayed, they can always retract to their profitable markets and carry on. Wishing Uber will go away is dandelion seeds in the wind.


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## TheFixer1 (Jan 29, 2017)

Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> I'm convinced that if uber raises it's rates up to market rates... It will hemorrhage market share.
> 
> Uber can slowly raise rates and slowly bleed market share until it reaches an equilibrium where they don't lose money and don't suffer from lawsuits. This is uber's best chance at surviving, however it's possible that it will take them decades to cover their lawsuits that they are already going to be stuck with. It's also possible (and proboble) that the lawsuits will continue until they are up to market cost. Also new ride share competitors can pop up and undercut uber's new rates and take market share further ruining them.
> 
> Or they can continue on the path they are on until the lawsuits cripple them until they run out of venture capital and they collapse overnight.


This collapse overnight has been brought up in these forums for years now, to nauseum, that is not happening anytime soon, too many fat cats involved with Uber with bottomless pockets, and as I said wishful thinking if you think they will raise the rates, not in this economy. Once you lower the rate in the service industry, and people still working with those rates"desperate people, and there are many, and Uber and their board of directors know this", also good luck trying to convince the customer to now pay more for the same service.


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## Flarpy (Apr 17, 2016)

TheFixer1 said:


> This collapse overnight has been brought up in these forums for years now, to nauseum, that is not happening anytime soon, too many fat cats involved with Uber with bottomless pockets, and as I said wishful thinking if you think they will raise the rates, not in this economy. Once you lower the rate in the service industry, and people still working with those rates"desperate people, and there are many, and Uber and their board of directors know this", also good luck trying to convince the customer to now pay more for the same service.


Maybe, but then Uber just continues to burn through $3B a year and never gets anywhere.

What you have to look at is the amount that NEW investors are willing to pour in. When the news of big investors dropping big bucks on Uber dries up, you know that the Ponzi scheme is crumbling. Give it a few years but there's no mathematical way for Uber to survive at this point unless they drastically change their business model.

Pool is hated by all, eats will never get off the ground, and the SDC hail mary is 20 years off so it'll be too little too late.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Flarpy said:


> Maybe, but then Uber just continues to burn through $3B a year and never gets anywhere.


Dude, really? They are expanding every day. How is that _not getting anywhere_ when market share is their goal. They aren't losing money, they are investing it in market share. It's what companies do. Also, now that they sold their China operation, their spending could be going down by quite a bit.



Flarpy said:


> What you have to look at is the amount that NEW investors are willing to pour in.


I will bet investors are going to really like Uber's deal with Daimler to provide a SDC fleet at no cost.



Flarpy said:


> Give it a few years but there's no mathematical way for Uber to survive at this point unless they drastically change their business model.


Uber can always stop expanding, contract some, and be profitable. They _choose _not to.



Flarpy said:


> the SDC hail mary is 20 years off so it'll be too little too late.


Nevermind. I thought you were serious.


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## TheFixer1 (Jan 29, 2017)

Flarpy said:


> Maybe, but then Uber just continues to burn through $3B a year and never gets anywhere.
> 
> What you have to look at is the amount that NEW investors are willing to pour in. When the news of big investors dropping big bucks on Uber dries up, you know that the Ponzi scheme is crumbling. Give it a few years but there's no mathematical way for Uber to survive at this point unless they drastically change their business model.
> 
> Pool is hated by all, eats will never get off the ground, and the SDC hail mary is 20 years off so it'll be too little too late.


So when you say give it a few years, which has been said to nauseum years ago, what exactly are you trying to say here, that you will continue to work for peanuts like a good Uber soldier, while you are hoping at the same time they go up in flames, brilliant.


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## TheFixer1 (Jan 29, 2017)

Uber needs to look into this new business model.


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## Flarpy (Apr 17, 2016)

TheFixer1 said:


> So when you say give it a few years, which has been said to nauseum years ago, what exactly are you trying to say here, that you will continue to work for peanuts like a good Uber soldier, while you are hoping at the same time they go up in flames, brilliant.


I don't drive rideshare anymore, so no.


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