# "None of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy"



## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

http://prospect.org/article/uber-road-not-taken

. . .
For all of these reasons, other companies working on self-driving vehicles, and which are not so invested in media stunts as a way to reassure venture capital funders, offer a drastically more cautious take on the future pace of development.

Bradley Stertz, a manager for Audi, says a fully automated vehicle with no driver is still 20 or 30 years away. "To have the car understand every single possibility is a massive challenge," he says. Gill Pratt, CEO of the Toyota Research Institute, told an audience at the Consumer Electronics Show in early January 2017 that, "None of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy. We are not even close." Level 5 is an industry term for cars that are fully autonomous and do not require human supervision. The technology needs to be foolproof before thousands of vehicles can be allowed on the streets, but this technology is nowhere near that standard.

Self-driving vehicles potentially have a future in those transportation situations where the travel path is clear and simple, and there are few quick decisions to be made-autopilot in airplanes is already in widespread use, for example, since the skies are uncluttered and split-second decisions are not a normal occurrence. Even so, planes have two human pilots who can take back control on a moment's notice.
. . .​


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## mountainchick04 (Mar 21, 2017)

I almost wonder if this is what is going to eventually sink Uber. I don't think autonomous vehicles will ever be a thing. Too much liability and too much risk to allow driver less cars. If planes can't reach this point, which statistically are a safer means of travel then cars, then there is no way the DOT will allow it. But it is interesting to watch Uber sink there money into it trying to replace us....... and hopefully some day failing miserably.


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

Uber's entire venture into SDC's is nothing but bait to attract greedy investors to keep the company afloat. 

"We'll have robot cars, we won't be paying drivers, you'll be RICH!!!"

The sooner the money dries up, the better. Maybe then adults will take over and actually try to make a profit. The solution to every problem associated with Uber is to raise rates.


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

Jagent said:


> Uber's entire venture into SDC's is nothing but bait to attract greedy investors to keep the company afloat.
> 
> "We'll have robot cars, we won't be paying drivers, you'll be RICH!!!"
> 
> The sooner the money dries up, the better. Maybe then adults will take over and actually try to make a profit. The solution to every problem associated with Uber is to raise rates.


Can't raise rates. They would if they could of course but the simple fact of life is they lose business to Lyft or the Cabs if they do. Uber is sunk either way.


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

everythingsuber said:


> Can't raise rates. They would if they could of course but the simple fact of life is they lose business to Lyft or the Cabs if they do. Uber is sunk either way.


Sure they can. Lyft will raise rates too. They'd both still be cheaper and offer better service than Taxis in most areas.


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

Jagent said:


> Sure they can. Lyft will raise rates too. They'd both still be cheaper and offer better service than Taxis in most areas.


Lyft won't raise rates if it can get market share away from Uber. TravisK was telling the truth in his rant with the driver video. Uber must be the cheapest or it is out of business.


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

everythingsuber said:


> Lyft won't raise rates if it can get market share away from Uber. TravisK was telling the truth in his rant with the driver video. Uber must be the cheapest or it is out of business.


We're gonna have to agree to disagree. Both companies are losing money. As of now, it's a standoff to see who raises rates first or goes out of business.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jagent said:


> We're gonna have to agree to disagree. Both companies are losing money. As of now, it's a standoff to see who raises rates first or goes out of business.


Unlike most "normal" investors, Uber's Investors mostly do not care about losing money. Uber is valued at almost $70 Billion. Uber's Investors have "IPO dreams" about profiting 10-fold from their investment. Unfortunately for them, Travis screwed up the IPO schedule, delaying it indefinitely.


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## 123dragon (Sep 14, 2016)

A writer I am sure he's an expert on the autonomous trend...

https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradstertz


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

123dragon said:


> A writer I am sure he's an expert on the autonomous trend...
> 
> https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradstertz


That is a pretty impressive resume. Automotive Editor for the Detroit News, GM of Corporate Communications and then Director of Government Affairs for Audi.

I'd call those legitimate credentials to speak about automotive topics.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

everythingsuber said:


> Can't raise rates. They would if they could of course but the simple fact of life is they lose business to Lyft or the Cabs if they do. Uber is sunk either way.


Uber is going to go into decline, either way. Just a matter of time. What have they done, really? All they have done is to replace the radio dispatcher with an app, and massively increase the number of cars available. But it's not market growth caused by increases in efficiency or lower costs or better marketing - it's massive revenue growth simply purchased with even more massive amounts of investors' money. It's not a real, long term sustainable business operation. Any idiot can get a billion dollars in sales if he spends 2 billion to get it. Until the cash runs out.

Rideshare is here to stay, but it's not going to be the everyman, bus fare change type of operation that the investor money is currently supporting. Once the subsidies are gone, driver supply will decrease and prices will have to rise. Driver numbers, pax numbers and ride volume will all fall to a level that is sustainable from ride receipts and by those who are willing to pay the actual cost of their ride.

Uber's smart - it's financed itself by equity and not by debt. I think it'll survive, but on a much smaller scale than now. If I were Travis, I'd cash in and get out before the company and its value implode.


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## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

The Gift of Fish said:


> Uber is going to go into decline, either way. Just a matter of time. What have they done, really? All they have done is to replace the radio dispatcher with an app, and massively increase the number of cars available. But it's not market growth caused by increases in efficiency or lower costs or better marketing - it's massive revenue growth simply purchased with even more massive amounts of investors' money. It's not a real, long term sustainable business operation. Any idiot can get a billion dollars in sales if he spends 2 billion to get it. Until the cash runs out.
> 
> Rideshare is here to stay, but it's not going to be the everyman, bus fare change type of operation that the investor money is currently supporting. Once the subsidies are gone, driver supply will decrease and prices will have to rise. Driver numbers, pax numbers and ride volume will all fall to a level that is sustainable from ride receipts and by those who are willing to pay the actual cost of their ride.
> 
> Uber's smart - it's financed itself by equity and not by debt. I think it'll survive, but on a much smaller scale than now. If I were Travis, I'd cash in and get out before the company and its value implode.


Uber may not be able to survive...

It may be a $5 billion company with $20 billion in debts once the lawsuits hit,

and a a new compititor (Google ride) can pop up instantly once rates HAVE to go up ,not have lawsuit debt to carry, and undercut uber/lyft as they both try in vain to dig out of the hole.


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

The Gift of Fish said:


> Uber is going to go into decline, either way. Just a matter of time. What have they done, really? All they have done is to replace the radio dispatcher with an app, and massively increase the number of cars available. But it's not market growth caused by increases in efficiency or lower costs or better marketing - it's massive revenue growth simply purchased with even more massive amounts of investors' money. It's not a real, long term sustainable business operation. Any idiot can get a billion dollars in sales if he spends 2 billion to get it. Until the cash runs out.
> 
> Rideshare is here to stay, but it's not going to be the everyman, bus fare change type of operation that the investor money is currently supporting. Once the subsidies are gone, driver supply will decrease and prices will have to rise. Driver numbers, pax numbers and ride volume will all fall to a level that is sustainable from ride receipts and by those who are willing to pay the actual cost of their ride.
> 
> Uber's smart - it's financed itself by equity and not by debt. I think it'll survive, but on a much smaller scale than now. If I were Travis, I'd cash in and get out before the company and its value implode.


Think Uber have at least 2 billion dollars worth of debt. Just guessing and I think they had a war chest of 10 billion June last year maybe down to about 8 billion including the 2 billion dollars worth of debt probably secured against any assets Uber have. The Waymo issue possibly effects Ubers equity if it's intellectual copyright on autonomous vehicle technology is actually waymos.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Uber will *NEVER DIE* while the company valuation (now almost $70 Billion) grows faster than the vast amounts of capital being lost. All the recent bad news has made Uber's investors understandably jittery. However, they will not pull out or or let their "golden goose" die until the "solid gold egg" (a.k.a. the IPO) is laid. If, and only if, a tipping point is reached, where losses exceed valuation growth, or even worse valuation decreases then all bets are off.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

Maven said:


> Uber will *NEVER DIE* while the company valuation (now almost $70 Billion) grows faster than the vast amounts of capital being lost. All the recent bad news has made Uber's investors understandably jittery. However, they will not pull out or or let their "golden goose" die until the "solid gold egg" (a.k.a. the IPO) is laid. If, and only if, a tipping point is reached, where losses exceed valuation growth, or even worse valuation decreases then all bets are off*.*


Valuation means little in privately held companies. It's not directly related to profits/losses, and it, by itself, does not dictate whether or not a company will survive. All it is is a calculated value based on what the most recently chunk of the company was sold for. It's historical only. The deciding factor in whether Uber survives or not isn't its valuation but (the same as for any other company) its liquidity. Having enough money in the bank to pay creditors and keep the lights on.

If Uber suddenly becomes profitable then liquidity will come from its customers. If not then liquidity will have to keep coming from investors and/or in the form of loans. It's impossible to predict at what point, or if, investors will stop wanting to pump money into Uber, or whether Uber will be able launch an IPO before investors lose their nerve. The only ones who know at what point the investors would pull the plug are the investors.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

I think 20 to 30 years away is a fair number. I don't see it as a threat in the short term to human drivers.


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