# Are the Uber and Lyft bubbles about to burst?



## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/uber-and-lyft-bubbles-about-to-burst/amp/


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## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

observer said:


> https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/uber-and-lyft-bubbles-about-to-burst/amp/


Tells it like it is.

Won't be long folks. I give em 1 year


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

I think the blood bath starts 180 days after their respective IPO ‘s.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

labor costs increasing 30% and then increasing the costs of the ride X% to stop losing money?

Let's do some quick math here...

UberX

Hyatt regency by the convention center to the airport.

Currently
Uberx- $20
Taxi- $35

That's a sizable difference,

Now let's increase labor costs by
+30% driver cost +$3.00
+40% uber's cost

$11 (the driver's pay) + 30%= $3.00 increase
8 (uber's cut) + 40% (to turn a profit)= $3.20

UberX- new price= $26
Taxi= $35

BUT WAIT...

Orlando rates are %** compared to the rest of the country now, we have to compensate extra for that...

The price differential is now virtually gone, any bit of surge and it will further deteriorate/evaporate.

The price differential in many places is much lower than Orlando anyway, uber is going to be charging taxi rates and their business is going to get gutted.


I don't see any other solution.


It's not all going back to taxis, far from it.

I expect the lost fares to go to the following groups.

10-20%- taxis (in places like airports that they are more convenient to walk to the taxi stand for the same price. All the hotels that taxis do or used to queue up in will get taxi queues or more activity on them if they are still around.
20% - increase in drunk driving due to the rides being priced out, well there goes uber's only positive contribution to society down the drain
20%- people buying a car or taking a bus or walking
20%- car rentals instead of uber/lyft. Ridesharing has taken a sizable bite out of rentals
20%- Airport parking YUP, some of the business is going to evaporate into airport parking, it will no longer be cheaper for some folks to pay for airport parking than a round trip uber ride.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> labor costs increasing 30% and then increasing the costs of the ride X% to stop losing money?
> 
> Let's do some quick math here...
> 
> ...


So, in other words Uber was never a viable business and everything will go back to the way it was??


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## MondayMan (Apr 27, 2019)

I don’t understand what Uber tells investors that makes them keep pouring money into the pit. Anybody know?


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## The Entomologist (Sep 23, 2018)

Another exit strategy they may have is to go bankrupt in uber and buy another rideshare with a different design, like that they can avoid massive losses.


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## Polomarko (Dec 20, 2016)

MondayMan said:


> I don't understand what Uber tells investors that makes them keep pouring money into the pit. Anybody know?


Some early investors pouring money into U/L stocks, expecting that public will start buying U/L stocks, increase the value and they will be able to pull out money that they invested.



observer said:


> So, in other words Uber was never a viable business and everything will go back to the way it was??


It will never bee as it was. I do think that U/L will have to restructure theirs business otherwise they will face bankruptcy. Because of such a huge scale of manipulation and speculation some U/L executives should face legal challenges.
On the market new companies will appear, much smaller scale then U/L much better organized than taxes and profitable.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

MondayMan said:


> I don't understand what Uber tells investors that makes them keep pouring money into the pit. Anybody know?


I blame Intel. They out out a paper about self driving being a potential $7 TRILLION opportunity so investors want a piece of that action.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timwor...conomy-a-possible-underestimate/#4d7b60f35760


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

observer said:


> So, in other words Uber was never a viable business and everything will go back to the way it was??


Well here's the thing,

It simply won't work to pay employees Fare wages,

It's more expensive to pay someone to use their own car than to issue a company car to do the same job.

I can rent and fuel a taxi and drive it for 200-250 miles for less than the per mile deduction for 200-250 miles driven.

Last night my rental+ gas was $93 for 192 miles. (not the greatest night)

192 miles at .58 a mile = $111.36

If i was pushing 250 miles (the upper limit)

I'd be closer to $99 in expenses

250 X .58= $145

If i took a 24 hour rental the math isn't as extreme,

Probobly 300 miles X .58= $174

$150 for the rental plus $25 for gas = $175

Quite simply... the cab company is collecting less from it's drivers than uber/lyft would have to be paying out to it's drivers in vehicle expenses.

So let's say i work 11 hours total in a 12 hour shift, at the local min wage i need a profit of $93.06. Then i would need to come up with another $95 or so to give to the cab company and to put into gas.

If i was an uber driver putting in those same miles i would need to be paid

$93.06
175 miles at .58 per mile = $101.50

Plus uber would need to collect something for themselves, let's say 25% (wonder where that came from)

SO... as a cab driver to make min wage in profit i need to bring in $188.06

as an uber driver i would to bring in..

$243.20

Taxi- $188.06
Uber- $243.20


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

MondayMan said:


> I don't understand what Uber tells investors that makes them keep pouring money into the pit. Anybody know?


There is only one fantasy that keeps them going, and a few more others. They dream the earth is flat and somebody or something (technology?) would help them prove it.


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## tmart (Oct 30, 2016)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> Well here's the thing,
> 
> It simply won't work to pay employees Fare wages,
> 
> ...


Math is good


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## SFOspeedracer (Jun 25, 2019)

MondayMan said:


> I don't understand what Uber tells investors that makes them keep pouring money into the pit. Anybody know?


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

observer said:


> https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/uber-and-lyft-bubbles-about-to-burst/amp/


The investors in Uber and Uber management are trying to beat the clock before the company implodes to dump their stock and escape with their ill gotten gains.


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## nouberipo (Jul 24, 2018)

1.5xorbust said:


> I think the blood bath starts 180 days after their respective IPO 's.


I am looking forward to that day/week when we really see what is going on with their funding base



Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> Well here's the thing,
> 
> It simply won't work to pay employees Fare wages,
> 
> ...


"It simply won't work to pay employees Fare wages" so if that is the case Uber and Lyft should not be allowed to operate in the US. Awhile back we were a first world country which operated within a set of regulations/laws that many third world countries do not care about or enforce (for the record I have lived in the US most of my life and also Lebanon, Philippines, New Zealand, and the Czech Republic). Fair wages are part of what has made the US a first-world country and sustained it as such until recently. Again, let them take their exploitation model to the third world countries where it belongs and don't bring down our society by trying to make it acceptable here.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

peteyvavs said:


> The investors in Uber and Uber management are trying to beat the clock before the company implodes to dump their stock and escape with their ill gotten gains.


I'd laugh so hard if rideaharing disappeared as "impossible math" of making it work post the IPO stock lockup crash.

I'm pretty sure the current management of both is going to disappear into the wind once the initial investors attempt to sell/dump their stocks.

The new folks that are brought in are going to have a mess to clean up.


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## RebelPercMom (Mar 17, 2019)

I studied finance and accounting in college, so I have a pretty good grasp of that stuff. But I'm pretty clueless when it comes to technology. That being said, I cannot for the life of me figure out just what is so expensive about the technology. Every day Uber riders take millions of trips. I can't understand how every trip costs Uber money, especially given the exorbitant cut it takes from drivers. What I do know is what we all know : it can't go on indefinitely. I'm all in favor of any story telling the truth about just where the fees are going, and, more importantly, where they're not. As a passenger, I'd be livid if I knew how little drivers keep. I work hard for my money so I'm not a bit happy lining fat -cat pockets. Let the passengers boycott and watch things really get exciting. Then we could sit back and smile when we see the full story on "60 Minutes".


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## RabbleRouser (Apr 30, 2019)

RebelPercMom said:


> I studied finance and accounting in college, so I have a pretty good grasp of that stuff. But I'm pretty clueless when it comes to technology. That being said, I cannot for the life of me figure out just what is so expensive about the technology. Every day Uber riders take millions of trips. I can't understand how every trip costs Uber money, especially given the exorbitant cut it takes from drivers. What I do know is what we all know : it can't go on indefinitely. I'm all in favor of any story telling the truth about just where the fees are going, and, more importantly, where they're not. As a passenger, I'd be livid if I knew how little drivers keep. I work hard for my money so I'm not a bit happy lining fat -cat pockets. Let the passengers boycott and watch things really get exciting. Then we could sit back and smile when we see the full story on "60 Minutes".


"_I'm not a bit happy lining fat -cat pockets"_
?YET u continue to chauffeur Uber's clients

"_As a passenger, I'd be livid if I knew how little drivers keep."_

⚠ While the driver is operating the vehicle ? the pax "May" sympathize with the driver.
?? However, fact is passengers want/demand DIRT cheap Fares and they Don't care how they get 'em. nor who suffers. To Uber the customer is King ? and Drivers ?Disposable ?

After all, no one forced U 2 be a Low Skilled worker

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/07/09/why-uber-stock-rose.aspx
*Uber Stock Rose 15% Last Month*
*Shares of the newly public ridesharing giant got an assist from Wall Street.*


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## Polomarko (Dec 20, 2016)

1.5xorbust said:


> I think the blood bath starts 180 days after their respective IPO 's.





RabbleRouser said:


> "_I'm not a bit happy lining fat -cat pockets"_
> ?YET u continue to chauffeur Uber's clients
> 
> "_As a passenger, I'd be livid if I knew how little drivers keep."_
> ...


Every worker must be payed livable wages. Uber management was preoccupied with so many Law suites like Wymo that they did not pay attention to AB5. But, AB5 bill is so important that can put U/L out of business.
Why, because U/L can not operate with such a huge labor expenses. U/L core of business is permanently hire new driver. As soon as driver realize how misarable pay out is, driver leave. New manipulated person became driver and this is a circle that both companies running.


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## RebelPercMom (Mar 17, 2019)

RabbleRouser said:


> "_I'm not a bit happy lining fat -cat pockets"_
> ?YET u continue to chauffeur Uber's clients
> 
> No. I don't.
> ...


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## 25rides7daysaweek (Nov 20, 2017)

My 1099 said uber made 25k profit
off my work in the last year
I'm just one guy in one city
City of chicago released that
there was 55000 cars registered 
They are making a shitload
If they arent making it
Where is all this money going?


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## RabbleRouser (Apr 30, 2019)

Polomarko said:


> Every worker must be payed livable wages. Uber management was preoccupied with so many Law suites like Wymo that they did not pay attention to AB5. But, AB5 bill is so important that can put U/L out of business.
> Why, because U/L can not operate with such a huge labor expenses. U/L core of business is permanently hire new driver. As soon as driver realize how misarable pay out is, driver leave. New manipulated person became driver and this is a circle that both companies running.


"_Every worker must be payed livable wages" _
Then u better Lower you standard of living PDQ

Employee status for many drivers means deactivation.⚠

?Most drivers can't follow nor accept
direction (you're required to help Uber's clients with luggage, groceries and open doors)
rules (clean nice smelling cars OR Else, shirt & tie for Driver)
regulation
supervision (decline 3 requests = deactivation for 1 week)
nor scheduling (no more jumping on & off app when it fits ur schedule) your shift is 10pm to 6am. Don't show = abandoning position. Deactivation

As an employee, Uber will be cracking the whip

Dead Bodies will litter highways and byways from Alaska to the Keys


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## RebelPercMom (Mar 17, 2019)

25rides7daysaweek said:


> My 1099 said uber made 25k profit
> off my work in the last year
> I'm just one guy in one city
> City of chicago released that
> ...


My sentiments exactly. Thanks for articulating it better than I did.

I'm afraid the answer may be

autonomous vehicles
executive mansions


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## nouberipo (Jul 24, 2018)

MondayMan said:


> I don't understand what Uber tells investors that makes them keep pouring money into the pit. Anybody know?


I don't understand what Uber tells drivers that makes them keep driving......lies, lies, and more lies.



RebelPercMom said:


> My sentiments exactly. Thanks for articulating it better than I did.
> 
> I'm afraid the answer may be
> 
> ...


Besides the mansions in SF, Beverly Hills, and NYC, think of all the lawyers they have in order for them to thwart so many employment laws in this country. They seem to work under the assumption, and it is working, that they don't have to follow any laws that are invonvenient or outside their business model (sounds sort of like the leader of the country.......break any laws you want and just have a cadre of lawyers and lobbyists take care of it). Anybody in the US is above the law if they have the right connections and the money.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

observer said:


> https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/uber-and-lyft-bubbles-about-to-burst/amp/


I hate it when a potentially good writer says stupid things. Uber doesn't lose money on every ride.

*So Uber is effectively a middleman for a money transfer from venture-capital (VC) firms to consumers. It takes a loss on every ride, subsidized by a massive valuation that looks increasingly like a fairy tale.*


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

This is a good read

https://theintercept.com/2019/07/18...3DsgmruHBiylL_RHuEXB5vpgyX9Qp6zZmeNr2XZoSM6Yc


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

25rides7daysaweek said:


> My 1099 said uber made 25k profit
> off my work in the last year
> I'm just one guy in one city
> City of chicago released that
> ...


Do you think a new logo comes cheap?


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## Matt Uterak (Jul 28, 2015)

MondayMan said:


> I don't understand what Uber tells investors that makes them keep pouring money into the pit. Anybody know?


It is still a rather elegant concept.

Many people believe they have the magic dust to perfect this elegant concept and get rich

I haven't dived deep into U/L financial data, but I get the impression that it is money management. Wasteful spending and improper distribution of resources (self driving cars, the Uber(insert concept here) testing etc.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

goneubering said:


> I hate it when a potentially good writer says stupid things. Uber doesn't lose money on every ride.
> 
> *So Uber is effectively a middleman for a money transfer from venture-capital (VC) firms to consumers. It takes a loss on every ride, subsidized by a massive valuation that looks increasingly like a fairy tale.*


Yes, but the end game is to transfer money from your 401K, big retirement funds, and retail investors back into the VC's pockets


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> Yes, but the end game is to transfer money from your 401K, big retirement funds, and retail investors back into the VC's pockets


Of course. That's what VC attempt to do with each company but they also know the failure rate is high.


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