# Surge map is very broken - why?



## Agent99 (Nov 4, 2015)

Does anyone know why the map shows high surge when in reality there's no surge happening at all? Also, it's not in the new honeycomb style.


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## tipster98122 (Dec 10, 2015)

I have one theory but it's a more than a couple lines. Bear with me...

First, all Surge is not created equal. There is *True Surge*. And there is *Fake Surge*.

A *True Surge *is the result of when rider demand outstrips the supply of drivers in the area. This type is not part of this thread. 

The other kind of Surge-*Fake Surge*-- is artificially created, manipulated and then framed by Uber to be beneficial to the driver.

Uber consistently tells us that Surges are a direct result of not enough supply to meet the demand. But what about these other surges? Are they just a glitch in the system? Or maybe something else is at play?

*What would be the point for Uber to create Fake Surges? Isn't it in their best interest to have TRUE surges as much as possible? Don't they make more $$$ when drivers make more $$$?*

*Yes. And. No.*

Uber does make more in their % take of a long trip. That's true. But these trips are not the norm and they are considered _variable_ revenue.

The real money maker for Uber comes from the _fixed_ revenue. AKA, the *RIDER FEES. *
And Uber wants *LOTS* of these.

Increased volume = Increased RIDER FEES = Increased earnings.

Thus, they make their money on the *VOLUME of trips completed, not the DISTANCES traveled. *

This is an example of economy of scale.

*How does this translate in the discussion of True and Fake Surge? *

When consumers think about other transportation options of bus, taxi, bike, walking, light rail, etc., Uber wants to be the default choice.

The value, then, of an artificially created Fake Surge helps Uber achieve this default status by:

1) Having an ample supply of drivers available, based on previous data, for that area.

2) To solidify the brand in the eye of the consumer that an Uber is always available, reliable and cheap.

*IMO, Fake Surges* are not just a glitch but an artificial construct to saturate drivers in an area to not meet demand but to achieve the greatest number of short-run rider fees.

It's just a theory but given how this company operates I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it were all true.


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## Stygge (Jan 9, 2016)

Per definition demand goes down at surge. Being in a surge zone means less chance for a ping. However, if you do pick up a rider you will get paid more. Stay close to the border of the surge if you want quick pings at regular fare and stay at busy areas in the surge zone if you want less pings but higher fare. Also make sure you have another driver between you and the border if you don't want regular fares.


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## Agent99 (Nov 4, 2015)

tipster98122 said:


> I have one theory but it's a more than a couple lines. Bear with me...
> 
> First, all Surge is not created equal. There is *True Surge*. And there is *Fake Surge*.
> 
> ...


Thank you for the hard work you've done to lay out your theory. It's at least plausible. The difficulty I have is tying real life samples of high surge (like the photo I posted) with your theory. It's just not believable, showing a solid 8.9x surge instead of the new honeycomb style surge zones with multiples in a believable range (say, 2x to 2.5x). If Uber wanted to really fool *some* drivers, they would use a honeycomb surge map system. Even then, a comparison with the passenger app would show that the surge is not happening.


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## Greguzzi (Jan 9, 2016)

Agent99 said:


> Does anyone know why the map shows high surge when in reality there's no surge happening at all? Also, it's not in the new honeycomb style.


Those old-style surges are happening nearly everyday, now, sometimes several times a day, and are all false. If it's not showing the new-style honeycomb surge areas, it's not real.


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## Agent99 (Nov 4, 2015)

Greguzzi said:


> Those old-style surges are happening nearly everyday, now, sometimes several times a day, and are all false. If it's not showing the new-style honeycomb surge areas, it's not real.


Do you think those false surges are intentional?


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## tipster98122 (Dec 10, 2015)

Maybe the larger question here is: Is uber the kind of unethical company that would willfully manipulate its data to move drivers to an area when there was no surge?

There seems to be many similar threads on surge manipulation in other cities. 
These pics from LA show uber actively geo-fencing out the surge from the airport. 
Why would they do that?



arto71 said:


> When LAX allowed Lyft to do pick ups , uber started surging at LAX ,to bring in ,its limited number of TCP uberXs. See screenshot below
> View attachment 25808
> 
> See screenshot below
> ...


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## Greguzzi (Jan 9, 2016)

Agent99 said:


> Do you think those false surges are intentional?


I don't. If their only goal was to fool us, why would they not use the new-style surge zones?

I interpret this as a maintenance issue/glitch.


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