# ? A Warning About Uber IPO ?



## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

*A Warning About Uber IPO*


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

Well not everyone can cash out straight away.
If you look at Lyft for example only 11% of stock is able to be traded at present. 6 months from now the rest of the stock hits the market.

Just need to wait and see if the 10 billion is fully subscribed and at what valuation?
There's not going to be any POP Lyft has seen to that and things could go south from day one. 

We shall have to wait an see.


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

Also Uber States in IPO filings it may Never Be Profitable.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1RN2SK

If I was an initial investor I would be figuring out an exit plan very soon.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

Sell out first moment and pray you get more than you put in.

Sure all the investors for Scruber and gryft are paper billionares now but 6 months from now?

Time will tell if the investments paid off at all.


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## Drivincrazy (Feb 14, 2016)

I think our best bet as drivers is to wait it out. Say Uber's IPO price per share is $75...wait 6-9 months and we have a shot at maybe...$25 a share...but...what if it goes to $10...then we just lost 60% of our money.
I was thinking those $100, $500, $1,000 bonuses were kinda like a worm on a hook. Uber gives us play money, but then invites us to buy 10,000 dollars worth or whatever...Uber big dogs then take the cash and basically say... "OK, you guys can take over now...see ya'... we got some partying to do...
I'm thinking Uber must move to reward/pay drivers fairly or the associated ongoing problems will be their unraveling. Something to think about Uber Big Dawgs.


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

Drivincrazy said:


> I think our best bet as drivers is to wait it out. Say Uber's IPO price per share is $75...wait 6-9 months and we have a shot at maybe...$25 a share...but...what if it goes to $10...then we just lost 60% of our money.
> I was thinking those $100, $500, $1,000 bonuses were kinda like a worm on a hook. Uber gives us play money, but then invites us to buy 10,000 dollars worth or whatever...Uber big dogs then take the cash and basically say... "OK, you guys can take over now...see ya'... we got some partying to do...
> I'm thinking Uber must move to reward/pay drivers fairly or the associated ongoing problems will be their unraveling. Something to think about Uber Big Dawgs.


My thoughts exactly... play money they will take back along with money to pump it before the dump. Uber is probably limited to how much they can invest so why not pass it through the drivers to pump it higher.


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## Side Hustle (Mar 2, 2017)

Drivincrazy said:


> I think our best bet as drivers is to wait it out. Say Uber's IPO price per share is $75...wait 6-9 months and we have a shot at maybe...$25 a share...but...what if it goes to $10...then we just lost 60% of our money.
> I was thinking those $100, $500, $1,000 bonuses were kinda like a worm on a hook. Uber gives us play money, but then invites us to buy 10,000 dollars worth or whatever...Uber big dogs then take the cash and basically say... "OK, you guys can take over now...see ya'... we got some partying to do...
> I'm thinking Uber must move to reward/pay drivers fairly or the associated ongoing problems will be their unraveling. Something to think about Uber Big Dawgs.


I'm not super knowledgeable about corporate life, but I thought that when a Corp goes public, it will eventually get a new board or directors voted in by the share holders. It may take a while - like erosion. But when Uber stock dives to a breaking point, the board will have to act. Most purchases of stock are a response to short term profitability, with the expected dividends. Long hold buyers, who hope for the stock to go up eventually are a dying breed.


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## warsaw (Apr 8, 2017)

*Lockup period:* For a preset number of days following an IPO, certain classes of shareholders are restricted from selling their shares. This "lockup period" is designed to protect a newly issued stock from undue selling pressure from insiders. At the end of the lockup period, these restricted shareholders may sell some or all of their shares.

Wait until all the insiders start selling, then the shares will be dirt cheap!

I would imagine $5.00 a share is possible after the lockup period expires.


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

warsaw said:


> *Lockup period:* For a preset number of days following an IPO, certain classes of shareholders are restricted from selling their shares. This "lockup period" is designed to protect a newly issued stock from undue selling pressure from insiders. At the end of the lockup period, these restricted shareholders may sell some or all of their shares.
> 
> Wait until all the insiders start selling, then the shares will be dirt cheap!
> 
> I would imagine $5.00 a share is possible after the lockup period expires.


Great info ?


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

I plan to buy put options right before the lock up period ends.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

1.5xorbust said:


> I plan to buy put options right before the lock up period ends.


Why wait? The cheapest prices on puts are now. Buy the 2021 puts or any 2020 puts and sell them in September. You won't lose much on theta decay and can capture the entire drop. If you wait till August to buy you gonna miss a huge chunk of the drop.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

UberAdrian said:


> Why wait? The cheapest prices on puts are now. Buy the 2021 puts or any 2020 puts and sell them in September. You won't lose much on theta decay and can capture the entire drop. If you wait till August to buy you gonna miss a huge chunk of the drop.


Watch out for vega.


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

I’m going in for $5000 and let it sit. I know the opportunity to lose it is there but I’m going to play the game. That’s why I drive Uber to finance vacations, guitars and little things along the way.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Evil-g said:


> I'm going in for $5000 and let it sit. I know the opportunity to lose it is there but I'm going to play the game. That's why I drive Uber to finance vacations, guitars and little things along the way.


This is why you're going to be an Uber driver forever :frown: Don't drink the kool-aid man. The only thing you're going to finance with this thinking is your own bankruptcy.



> Watch out for vega.


Of course you have to watch out for vega but first you have to manage your delta. People love to talk about the IV but that's just a minor scaling factor, you get made and broken on the delta. I would also check the gamma before I looked at vega. Rho I don't care for much. Theta I only care if range is < 3 mo otherwise it's pretty linear and I don't care.


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

UberAdrian said:


> This is why you're going to be an Uber driver forever :frown: Don't drink the kool-aid man. The only thing you're going to finance with this thinking is your own bankruptcy.
> 
> Great that you know me and my finances so well. Do you own a brokerage or something similar. You know nothing about me yet you assume to know me. Here's a little I'm retired, own my home, get a pension and medicare and SS income and have plenty of cash to do what I want with.
> How dare you assume to know me!!!
> ...


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Indeed, how dare I. You’re right man, my apologies. 

My objection to your concept of investing in Uber stands though. Other drivers might read your stuff and put their life savings into UBER. I’m trying to help these guys raise their income because I know how much they get paid!

It’s great that a rich guy like you is able to gamble on fantasies, I support this. But we can’t let the younger guys who don’t know any homes blow their savings.


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

Not rich by any means but money is my friend, I’ve worked hard for every dime. I was in no way advocating for anyone to follow my lead. I’m not an investment specialist and don’t understand everyone speaking as though they are. If I were to advise anyone it would be jump in and get your feet wet and play around a little. They are giving us some cash to do it, invest it. I see people when driving blowing money on titty bars, casinos and drinking so most people can afford to invest if they want. 

Olive branch extended.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

"new member" lol.


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> "new member" lol.


Actually I've been a member since 2014, just never posted.

Actually I've been a member since 2014, I've just never posted.


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

Evil-g said:


> Actually I've been a member since 2014, just never posted.
> 
> 
> Actually I've been a member since 2014, I've just never posted.


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## smarternotharder (Apr 17, 2019)

Evil-g said:


> Not rich by any means but money is my friend, I've worked hard for every dime. I was in no way advocating for anyone to follow my lead. I'm not an investment specialist and don't understand everyone speaking as though they are. If I were to advise anyone it would be jump in and get your feet wet and play around a little. They are giving us some cash to do it, invest it. I see people when driving blowing money on titty bars, casinos and drinking so most people can afford to invest if they want.
> 
> Olive branch extended.


90% of drivers got enough to replace a tire maybe 2 lmao

i bet less than 1000 drivers got the 20K & anyone doing that many rides needs it geez ive done round 4000 & easily have done $8300 in repairs so my maintenance costs are $2 a ride

maybe 50,000 got the 10,000 ride bonus
remember 96% fail 1st year

all the bonuses they about to give cost them probably 1 day of burn at a $9000 per minute burn rate & best believe "around" august 26 there will be a mass deactvation campaign lol

just like the "reward" of " free" school that requires 3000 rides like giving 3000 rides is free and 96% of drivers dont fail before then, rewards of starbucks bogo coupons, points where if you drive for free they reward you with some details of your contract the details you have the rights to know in the first place but they hide them because their whole business model is trying to trick idiots into driving for free

#uberipostrike


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

SurgeMasterMN said:


> View attachment 313068


????


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## dryverjohn (Jun 3, 2018)

Evil-g said:


> I'm going in for $5000 and let it sit. I know the opportunity to lose it is there but I'm going to play the game. That's why I drive Uber to finance vacations, guitars and little things along the way.


As long as that $5,000 is invested in Puts, you will do just fine. If you don't know what a Put is, read up and then buy them as soon as you are able to get in on the free fall.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

SurgeMasterMN said:


> View attachment 313068


Well played.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

everythingsuber said:


> Well not everyone can cash out straight away.
> If you look at Lyft for example only 11% of stock is able to be traded at present. 6 months from now the rest of the stock hits the market.
> 
> Just need to wait and see if the 10 billion is fully subscribed and at what valuation?
> ...


6 months from now it will be worth $4.59 a share !



TwoFiddyMile said:


> "new member" lol.


" SLEEPER AGENT "

Corporate Plant.


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

I am not a f%#*¥+~ plant, this is the reason I stay away from forums like this. Naysayers like you make it bad for everyone. All I did was mention I’m going to invest and you didn’t like it. It’s a wonder all drivers aren’t bankrupt with all bull#%^* some on this forum put out. If your not going to be helpful stay out of it. Just because your a (Well Known Member) doesn’t amount to a hill of Beans. If you know what you speak of, I’ll definitely listen if not I’ll move on.


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

After reading this article, I'm pretty much out. 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...rs-ipo-valuation-makes-no-sense/#6d9812d7540d


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Evil-g said:


> After reading this article, I'm pretty much out.
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...rs-ipo-valuation-makes-no-sense/#6d9812d7540d


If you've been reading this forum since joining in 2014 you should know plenty about Uber.


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4256092-uber-unsafe-price

_Quote from this article_
_"Here's the bottom line, the "rub". The Uber IPO appears designed primarily to get the Venture Capital people out. It is about Benchmark Capital, not about benchmarks toward success and profitability. It is about Underwriters who will sell anything if they can. I believe the Lyft offering was so disingenuous and poorly supported by the underwriters that there will be major class action lawsuits coming."_

My Take - This was my thought exactly when I posted this posting 2 weeks ago. And with 72% of the votes on this pole leading towards an investor cash out it seems like we all know where this story ends.


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## Evil-g (Dec 26, 2014)

goneubering said:


> If you've been reading this forum since joining in 2014 you should know plenty about Uber.


I said I've been a member since 2014, never said a word about keeping up with it.


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## Michael1230nj (Jun 23, 2017)

I have been thinking Uber will blow up,and the thing is an elaborate Ponzi scheme. But! The numbers put forth in the IPO are Staggering! 10 Billion trips! An increase last year of 5 Billion! If they raise prices by 1Dollar that’s a 10 Billion dollar increase in Revenue. It’s just a matter of time before they start ripping the customers face off.


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

Michael1230nj said:


> I have been thinking Uber will blow up,and the thing is an elaborate Ponzi scheme. But! The numbers put forth in the IPO are Staggering! 10 Billion trips! An increase last year of 5 Billion! If they raise prices by 1Dollar that's a 10 Billion dollar increase in Revenue. It's just a matter of time before they start ripping the customers face off.


This is true hopefully we get some of their face.. ?


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## nouberipo (Jul 24, 2018)

SurgeMasterMN said:


> Also Uber States in IPO filings it may Never Be Profitable.
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1RN2SK
> 
> If I was an initial investor I would be figuring out an exit plan very soon.


while many companies put this standard line in their prospectus, I think this is the first truthful thing I can trust that Uber has stated....that it may never be profitable. One thing I have learned over the years is to not trust anything or anyone associated with Uber or Lyft. They are both companies that consistently manipulate and lie to make profits and investors will be smart to short the Uber stock and stay away from Lyft stock (albeit I think their is still a lot of potential left in shorting Lyft).


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## Michael1230nj (Jun 23, 2017)

Dara has a stipulation in his contract. If he keeps Ubers valuation over 120 billion for 90 Days, he will receive a bonus of 100 million dollars. Don’t be so fast in thinking Ubers tanking.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Michael1230nj said:


> Dara has a stipulation in his contract. If he keeps Ubers valuation over 120 billion for 90 Days, he will receive a bonus of 100 million dollars. Don't be so fast in thinking Ubers tanking.


That $120 Billion was fantasy.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

Michael1230nj said:


> Dara has a stipulation in his contract. If he keeps Ubers valuation over 120 billion for 90 Days, he will receive a bonus of 100 million dollars. Don't be so fast in thinking Ubers tanking.


Well that's gone...


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

Michael1230nj said:


> Dara has a stipulation in his contract. If he keeps Ubers valuation over 120 billion for 90 Days, he will receive a bonus of 100 million dollars. Don't be so fast in thinking Ubers tanking.


This IPO is going to be rough out of the gates...


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