# Lyft IPO price action thread



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Ants,

Lyft should be trading here any second and Frankie plans on following the price action closely. I trade using interactive brokers, but you can easily follow the price on yahoo finance or Morningstar, among others. I believe shares will open at $72 giving the company a >$20B valuation. Where do you see the stock initially popping and where do you see it ending the day? 

Toodles,

Frankie


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## PioneerXi (Apr 20, 2018)

I just picked up at broker from San Diego Airport.

He thinks $72 is too much for a company losing money and will close close to $55.


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## FLKeys (Dec 27, 2018)

I just logged into my Ally account they won't let me put in an order yet. Not that I am going to I just wondered if I could. Still shows it at $72.00


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

FLKeys said:


> I just logged into my Ally account they won't let me put in an order yet. Not that I am going to I just wondered if I could. Still shows it at $72.00


I don't believe it has begun trading yet. It was supposed to start trading an hour ago, but sometimes there are last minute hangups.


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## RDWRER (May 24, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> I don't believe it has begun trading yet. It was supposed to start trading an hour ago, but sometimes there are last minute hangups.


Yeah, like people realizing it's a scam.


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## Taksomotor (Mar 19, 2019)

Sell the scam, transfer money to off shores, change name, identity, and run. That would be my business plan.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Popped up to $86 out of the gates for a nearly $30B valuation!!


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## FLKeys (Dec 27, 2018)

Just started trading up to 86.23 right now.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

RDWRER said:


> Yeah, like people realizing it's a scam.


It is trading at a high multiple to sales at ~13x, but that is not an entirely unheard of valuation. Workday, Adobe, Autodesk all trade for 10-12x sales and Veeva Systems trades for 17.5x sales.

Demand appears to be soft - price continues to trickle down towards $85.



FLKeys said:


> Just started trading up to 86.23 right now.


Shares continue to fade, down to $84. Where does the bleeding stop?


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## Kodyhead (May 26, 2015)

Your Lyft IPO is 73 mins away ........

Your acceptance rate is low


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## ipeestandingup (Mar 19, 2019)

All Techs IPO initially trade very high before completely crashing, is the instability that make then volatile and you wont see it’s real price till next year when I think it should be trading at ~50


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## BigBadJohn (Aug 31, 2018)

And we have Lyft off!! Oops, ladies and gentlemen, it looks as though we may have a crash and burn.....please don't look as it could be upsetting to those with a weak stomach and to our younger viewers...


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## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

Lyft huge disappointment after opening at $87 now trying to stay above $80. Not good for investor community ?


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## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

Taksomotor said:


> Sell the scam, transfer money to off shores, change name, identity, and run. That would be my business plan.


It will happen. Give it time.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Live from my trading account (level 2). As you can see it’s up $9 from IPO price as of now but tanking hard. Unfortunately no options available. I’d love to get my hands on some juicy puts!


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## Bart McCoy (Nov 4, 2014)

its just the first day, so can't really take too much from it


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## 1974toyota (Jan 5, 2018)

No Prisoners said:


> Lyft huge disappointment after opening at $87 now trying to stay above $80. Not good for investor community ?


ROFLMAO, they delayed the opening so they could rope in some more retail saps so the big boys could take there $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ JMO, LMAO, Stay away from IPO's 1st 3 days,jmo


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

I spent 1k roughly on it.... Yes I have the money to lose


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## FLKeys (Dec 27, 2018)

Everyone knew the first hour would jump higher and after that first hour it will stabilize some. I suspect somewhere around 2-3 PM to see some heavy volume as it starts getting added to some big funds as part of the portfolio.


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## Irishjohn831 (Aug 11, 2017)

Drive it Up and then jump on the short train to $25


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

Irishjohn831 said:


> Drive it Up and then jump on the short train to $25


I'm out regardless @ 110.00 got it set up to auto sell


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## Irishjohn831 (Aug 11, 2017)

$110, that’s a tough climb.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

Irishjohn831 said:


> $110, that's a tough climb.


I'm considering it a donation already


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## 1974toyota (Jan 5, 2018)

FLKeys said:


> Everyone knew the first hour would jump higher and after that first hour it will stabilize some. I suspect somewhere around 2-3 PM to see some heavy volume as it starts getting added to some big funds as part of the portfolio.


so far today lyft's hod was $87.24 as far as between 3PM and 4PM, if this POS doesn't get a bid by then, you could see the water fall effect,but hey, who knows,jmo



Irishjohn831 said:


> $110, that's a tough climb.


110 was that a typo? ROFLMAO, i say the big boys sold into the open, will redeploy they cash to do a repeat with uber,jmo


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## FLKeys (Dec 27, 2018)

If I was in I would get out at $92.00 Not sure it will hit 92.00 time will tell. I'll watch it out of curiosity.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

1974toyota said:


> so far today lyft's hod was $87.24 as far as between 3PM and 4PM, if this POS doesn't get a bid by then, you could see the water fall effect,but hey, who knows,jmo
> 
> 
> 110 was that a typo? ROFLMAO, i say the big boys sold into the open, will redeploy they cash to do a repeat with uber,jmo


I'm watching it very carefully.... If it starts plummeting in bailing out.... Stocks are a marathon, not a Sprint


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## 1974toyota (Jan 5, 2018)

Juggalo9er said:


> I'm watching it very carefully.... If it starts plummeting in bailing out.... Stocks are a marathon, not a Sprint


ROFLMAO this isn't a stock, its a IPO, i'd wait for 3 days for the clouds to disappear if i was interested in buying, but some people like lyft others don't thats what makes a mkt,GL, PS you'll need it,ROFLMAO


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

1974toyota said:


> ROFLMAO this isn't a stock, its a IPO, i'd wait for 3 days for the clouds to disappear if i was interested in buying, but some people like lyft others don't thats what makes a mkt,GL, PS you'll need it,ROFLMAO


Ps...I have very close to enough to retire right now at the age of 36....I don't need your advice with the wannabe condescending tone.... Thanks for playing, I have a real job


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Lyft had 2.2b in gross revenues and -800m in net profits. They are worth nothing and trying to trade at a market cap of $27b lol. Don't buy the kool-aid guys! This is not a technology company and cannot trade at sky high PS ratios like 13. It can trade at 6 tops. The only reason for high PS is expectation of future sales growth, but there will be no growth! There will be contraction lol. The current business model is being heavily subsidized by private investors and drivers and won't last forever, which means probably prices will have to go up and/or service quality will have to go down to have a viable business. I don't see where all this growth is coming from! If this company was profitable it would be worth 12b tops. This valuation is outrageous and I expect to see LYFT at $20 soon!

The fundamental problem, especially for lyft since they have the lowest rate card, is that they are trying to sell an inherently expensive luxury service (private car transport) to a bunch of worthless bums for welfare prices. Rideshare can work but not like this. Uber had the right idea with the black car service/advanced technology model. It was all downhill from there.

The second problem is management at these companies is stupid/insane and squandering crazy amounts of money on futile nonsense like self driving cars, drone based whatever and lawsuits/stupid commercials responding to lawsuits. They could probably be profitable if they didn't pursue these stupidities, but they won't stop. Rideshare isn't going anywhere but I think U/L are gonna go bankrupt due to excessive stupidity/evil at the highest levels. Scum always comes out in the wash!


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

We should be seeing a 7 handle in no time.


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## CarpeNoctem (Sep 12, 2018)




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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> Lyft had 2.2b in gross revenues and -800m in net profits. They are worth nothing and trying to trade at a market cap of $27b lol. Don't buy the kool-aid guys! This is not a technology company and cannot trade at sky high PS ratios like 13. It can trade at 6 tops. The only reason for high PS is expectation of future sales growth, but there will be no growth! There will be contraction lol.


Not sure what you are looking at, but revenues grew 103% last year after having grown 200% the year before. If revenues double again in 2019, you'd be looking at your 6x P/S multiple. As Frankie alluded to, the valuation is rich, but in-line with where other software businesses are trading.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> Not sure what you are looking at, but revenues grew 103% last year after having grown 200% the year before. If revenues double again in 2019, you'd be looking at your 6x P/S multiple. As Frankie alluded to, the valuation is rich, but in-line with where other software businesses are trading.


Not disagreeing with you. I'm saying though that after revenues top out, which should be pretty soon - they will then inevitably take a nosedive as the current business model is not viable and self sustaining and the only way to make it so is to do things that will definitely shrink the market. Plus competition and such from adversaries old and new. They were only able to do those numbers cuz of billions in private funding. What are they gonna do when the money runs out and they have to support themselves?

200% revenue growth sounds great and all but revenue growth doesn't actually matter at all unless it can be converted into profits at some point, and there is no indication this is possible! Anyone can achieve high growth spending other people's money lol.


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## corniilius (Jan 27, 2017)

I'll wait until they get some bad press, then buy. Probably best to do after a boycott.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

It's apparent In this thread that some people are incapable of reading an earnings statement....


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> Not disagreeing with you. I'm saying though that after revenues top out, which should be pretty soon - they will then inevitably take a nosedive as the current business model is not viable and self sustaining and the only way to make it so is to do things that will definitely shrink the market.


@UberAdrian I still don't see what figures you are looking at. Nothing I have seen points to numbers topping out. Active riders continues to grow - they added 1.2mm active riders between Q3 and Q4 and have trended towards adding a million new riders each and every quarter. Revenue per active rider has increased Q/Q back to March 2016. Total rides also continue to rise. At some point, yes, growth will slow and the percentage will certainly slow as they attempt to grow off of a larger base.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Now that they have the $20b investor dollars I'm sure growth will explode even more for a while. But the fundamental problem still exists my dude! The business model literally doesn't work as is. Prices have to go up. What do you think that's going to do to ridership and profits? The entire system may not even work lol...c'mon now you're avoiding the question!

I think the entire point of U/L going public is to get cash to survive long enough to replace all drivers with self driving cars. If they had SDC they could be super profitable. Maybe they will do it! Maybe they will go bankrupt trying though...it's tough to say.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> Now that they have the $20b investor dollars I'm sure growth will explode even more for a while. But the fundamental problem still exists my dude! The business model literally doesn't work as is. Prices have to go up. What do you think that's going to do to ridership and profits? The entire system may not even work lol...c'mon now you're avoiding the question!


I'm not avoiding the questions whatsoever. I have written about this topic at length on these forums. I believe I have a pretty astute understanding of the business model and the challenges these companies face. I have admitted that the business model is flawed and may not, at the end of the day, work. Eventually, the two companies may need to combine to gain the necessary scale.

Please see my post on this topic:
Threading the profitability needle


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Ok I will read your teachings. I'm not sure what you're trying to say though. Your position is that Lyft will become profitable?


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> Ok I will read your teachings. I'm not sure what you're trying to say though. Your position is that Lyft will become profitable?


No, not necessarily. My position is that they have a long row to hoe to get to profitability. They have many, often competing, factions that they must balance and satisfy to reach profitability. I also was wanting to provide data on actual growth figures so that others would have factual information from which they can make their investing decisions.


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## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> Now that they have the $20b investor dollars I'm sure growth will explode even more for a while. But the fundamental problem still exists my dude! The business model literally doesn't work as is. Prices have to go up. What do you think that's going to do to ridership and profits? The entire system may not even work lol...c'mon now you're avoiding the question!
> 
> I think the entire point of U/L going public is to get cash to survive long enough to replace all drivers with self driving cars. If they had SDC they could be super profitable. Maybe they will do it! Maybe they will go bankrupt trying though...it's tough to say.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

UberAdrian said:


> Now that they have the $20b investor dollars I'm sure growth will explode even more for a while.


Lyft only made $2 Billion, not $20 billion in investor dollars today. The $20 Billion is their market capitalization. The company has never seen scratch like that at one time.



RDWRER said:


> Yeah, like people realizing it's a scam.


It isn't a "scam" at all. Lyft might not make any money ever, but the idea of devising a taxi app and letting people use their own family cars as the cabs is a golden one. Eliminates the costly expense of buying, maintaining and storing a fleet.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

@I_Like_Spam is right. Lyft Raise somewhere around $2.3B in the IPO, which who knows how much they netted after fees. As of the end of Q4, they had $518mm and were burning $325mm a quarter from operations, so they likely sit at ~2.5B in cash. At current burn rates, that gives them less than 8 quarters runway, which isn't a lot. This, of course, doesn't take into account their ability to raise some debt.

Folks are dumping to end the session. Down to $78.

Closed at $78.29 and trading down near $78 after-hours.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Maybe Lyft will spend some of this $2 Billion to bring back the old big pink mustaches that drivers used to hang on their grilles?

They could call it "Classic Lyft"?


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> @I_Like_Spam is right. Lyft Raise somewhere around $2.3B in the IPO, which who knows how much they netted after fees. As of the end of Q4, they had $518mm and were burning $325mm a quarter from operations, so they likely sit at ~2.5B in cash. At current burn rates, that gives them less than 8 quarters runway, which isn't a lot. This, of course, doesn't take into account their ability to raise some debt.
> 
> Folks are dumping to end the session. Down to $78.
> 
> Closed at $78.29 and trading down near $78 after-hours.


That is true, they only took in 2.x in cash. That should fuel them for another 2 years or so then we'll see wutsup.

Sinking like a stone, as I predicted.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Who needs Lyft ?
I was looking at the spread, this can be manipulated... bs news also can pop the stock
Earnings season upon the masses, so will wait it out... if it hits 100, might consider shorting
Too many good stocks out in the market, so no reason to play with this now
Shake shake or whatever it was called had a meteoric rise and collapsed later..i am hoping for a meteoric rise, fueled by the shorts, then whip it down


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

@MDB was that your portfolio gainz for the day?


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> @MDB was that your portfolio gainz for the day?


Yes, one of the brokerage account
But make no mistake about it, when market goes down , it goes down also
I am loading up on airline stocks?For next 12-18months . Last time airline stocks became this cheap, it went up over 50%, and uncle Warren buying also, Dal his fav

Also use Motif, my fav?


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## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

Insiders were selling off, down 10% from the opening high. Happens every time you get an overvalued tech ipo that pops at the open due to hype.

The insiders are the only ones who got any real action to sell at top dollar. There arent borrowable shares available to short yet and no option chain for the first month.

Really no way to play it. Sure it will tank 50% when the market crashes. That could still be another year away.

Meanwhile if the market takes off, rising tides lift all ships. People shorted amazon for 20 years and it just kept getting bigger and going higher. Lyft is no amazon but they both started off as underdogs.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

jaxbeachrides said:


> Insiders were selling off, down 10% from the opening high. Happens every time you get an overvalued tech ipo that pops at the open due to hype.
> 
> The insiders are the only ones who got any real action to sell at top dollar. There arent borrowable shares available to short yet and no option chain for the first month.
> 
> ...


S&p had two major corrections over the last 12 months, so a major correction will not happen 
Us China deal will be done next month also...


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

@MDB Congrats, assuming your portfolio is not too concentrated and somewhat balance, you probably have $700k in your account. Not sure I like the airline call. I agree valuations are cheap, but they are still leveraged to oil prices which could turn against you. They are also pretty dependent on the market cycle. American Airlines lost 95% of its value in 2008. I agree the industry has consolidated to the point where it is in a much better place structurally, but I don't like the macro/oil drivers.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

And I'm getting rid of mine.... Started out going down and never really recovered


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Not concerned about oil?
I will get divi from airlines, and looking at earnings projections 2 years down the road, it is cheap...
They are borrowing money to retire shares at these prices... boring stocks excite me, but it could be like IBM and dva, two busts for uncle warren

I live like a homeless person, have no debt ?Spend 1.87 today on Dunkin donut coffee ? but going to the race track to lose money now


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

mbd said:


> Not concerned about oil?
> I will get divi from airlines, and looking at earnings projections 2 years down the road, it is cheap...
> They are borrowing money to retire shares at these prices... boring stocks excite me, but it could be like IBM and dva, two busts for uncle warren
> 
> I live like a homeless person, have no debt ?Spend 1.87 today on Dunkin donut coffee ? but going to the race track to lose money now


S&P had one of its best quarters to start the year since 1998, up 13%. If my assumption on your portfolio size is correct, you are like up $80k so far this year. That is the equivalent of about 3 years income for an ant.


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## Rosalita (May 13, 2018)

I'll wait for the sequel next year.


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## Niner687 (Aug 17, 2016)

Juggalo9er said:


> I spent 1k roughly on it.... Yes I have the money to lose


spent on what? buy and hope to go up or short? hope to go down


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

Niner687 said:


> spent on what? buy and hope to go up or short? hope to go down


The funny thing about specific stocks... You never know what they'll do at an ipo


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## Niner687 (Aug 17, 2016)

UberAdrian said:


> Lyft had 2.2b in gross revenues and -800m in net profits. They are worth nothing and trying to trade at a market cap of $27b lol. Don't buy the kool-aid guys! This is not a technology company and cannot trade at sky high PS ratios like 13. It can trade at 6 tops. The only reason for high PS is expectation of future sales growth, but there will be no growth! There will be contraction lol. The current business model is being heavily subsidized by private investors and drivers and won't last forever, which means probably prices will have to go up and/or service quality will have to go down to have a viable business. I don't see where all this growth is coming from! If this company was profitable it would be worth 12b tops. This valuation is outrageous and I expect to see LYFT at $20 soon!
> 
> The fundamental problem, especially for lyft since they have the lowest rate card, is that they are trying to sell an inherently expensive luxury service (private car transport) to a bunch of worthless bums for welfare prices. Rideshare can work but not like this. Uber had the right idea with the black car service/advanced technology model. It was all downhill from there.
> 
> The second problem is management at these companies is stupid/insane and squandering crazy amounts of money on futile nonsense like self driving cars, drone based whatever and lawsuits/stupid commercials responding to lawsuits. They could probably be profitable if they didn't pursue these stupidities, but they won't stop. Rideshare isn't going anywhere but I think U/L are gonna go bankrupt due to excessive stupidity/evil at the highest levels. Scum always comes out in the wash!


Just use SNAP as the example, popped when opened, now trading at 1/3 of IPO price. So LYFT will probably trade at 25 or less in a year.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> S&P had one of its best quarters to start the year since 1998, up 13%. If my assumption on your portfolio size is correct, you are like up $80k so far this year. That is the equivalent of about 3 years income for an ant.


S&p is up because of the major correction from last year, which was due ... if you look at sep or October to feb 2017 to 2018, it had a huge runup... so earnings have to catch up to the run up,or it needs a correction. 
lyft and uber could have done ipo last year, but they decided not to. You need that extra margin money, and the whole market in a uptrend to have a successful ipo?


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## 2020KING (Mar 29, 2019)

Rosalita said:


> I'll wait for the sequel next year.


if this fails ubers really doomed so it would be nice to get this to tank & for the lyft ipo strike going on to get traction & national news, its late friday so purposefully being buried in the news cycle hoping people forget come monday

next week needs a lot of action from drivers

this weekend a lot of action could also trigger the short sellers & early in to take it off the table to pull it down,

but alas i know it wont happen no one can compete with the marketing budgets & bloggers on the payola


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## The Entomologist (Sep 23, 2018)

Interesting... manipulating the stock market, lol, you do realize you are playing with fire, huh? You may not have ties to Lyft but still heads will roll.

I'm in.

What do you need from me? I can create a large enough chatroom with enough security to house everyone involved, of course you will need to spread the word everywhere, I think that as long as you have a large enough portion of drivers from the key states where the get the most revenue, you can dent it just enough to make buys and then off to work hard to sell the rest.

My condition for complicity would be this gets done on Uber instead.


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## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

I_Like_Spam said:


> Lyft only made $2 Billion, not $20 billion in investor dollars today. The $20 Billion is their market capitalization. The company has never seen scratch like that at one time.
> 
> 
> It isn't a "scam" at all. Lyft might not make any money ever, but the idea of devising a taxi app and letting people use their own family cars as the cabs is a golden one. Eliminates the costly expense of buying, maintaining and storing a fleet.


Only the app is new. Organized Gypsy cabs are what we are.
This is where the idea came from.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

BeansnRice said:


> Only the app is new. Organized Gypsy cabs are what we are.
> This is where the idea came from.


The app is the critical part- it enables Lyft to maintain control of the drivers and especially the money involved. The cab outfits could never control their fleet or their drivers even though they owned the fleet.


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## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

You make the most perfect point. Your comment should be made known to everyone on UP.

First of all your saying I need to be controlled?? Interesting ..... I as an individual, an independent driver, need controlling?

Second explain why the “fleet” U/L doesn’t own needs controlling?

Lastly U/L doesn’t own me nor any of the individual drivers nor their property. 

You clearly make the point that U/L never considered drivers and their cars as independent and nor as contractors but as their personal owned property to be dispensed and dispatched as they wish.

Like I said we are not chattel. Cab companies never treated their people as such. Idk did they?


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

BeansnRice said:


> Like I said we are not chattel. Cab companies never treated their people as such. Idk did they?


They might have wanted to, but before the age of GPS, close supervision of the drivers was impossible. Once someone drove out of the garage, they could do a lot and no one would be the wiser. That's why the cab companies abandoned paying drivers commission and went to leasing, where drivers paid a flat rate and if someone made trips off the meter it was between the driver, Almighty God and the PUC alone.

A driver told me about GPS at the garage back in the day, I told him I thought it was a fantasy. Sure, it was possible I opined, but Yellow Cab wasn't going to go to the expense of launching a satellite to track us.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

PioneerXi said:


> I just picked up at broker from San Diego Airport.
> 
> He thinks $72 is too much for a company losing money and will close close to $55.


I'd short the stock. But, I'd rather not gamble.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

RDWRER said:


> Yeah, like people realizing it's a scam.


I don't think that was the reason for the delay at all- I think they delayed to assure orderly markets. They had to line up sellers to meet the demand that they were seeing, before they opened trading on LYFT on Friday.

If they didn't get it together to ensure a supply, Lyft may have opened at more than $100, maybe a lot more.

And been a lot more volatile as the day went on.

There was a huge amount of interest in the issue and a lot of retail traders were putting market orders in.


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## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

I'm just amazed at how many traders, investments analysts, and investors are Uber drivers. I'm just a retiree and a humble member of this vast community. Canceling my subscription to WSJ. Thank you all.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

futures up big
Earnings season coming
Total float only 15 million, and if 50 to 60% owned by institutions, only 6 million left in the float.
They can shoot the price up 10 pts on some bs news


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

could be a rough day for LYFT, down 3% to 75 and change in the pre-market.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

I_Like_Spam said:


> could be a rough day for LYFT, down 3% to 75 and change in the pre-market.


It is indeed a rough day. Saw a 69 handle in early trading.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

ftupelo said:


> It is indeed a rough day. Saw a 69 handle in early trading.


Looks like a buying opportunity for those who couldn't get in on the IPO, if they are still hot for Lyft.


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## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

Ironic but In Lyft's style it would be most appropriate to mention "Lyft stock not conducive to good experience by investing community. If this behavior continues it could lead to deactivation"


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## Friendly Jack (Nov 17, 2015)

No Prisoners said:


> I'm just amazed at how many traders, investments analysts, and investors are Uber drivers. I'm just a retiree and a humble member of this vast community. Canceling my subscription to WSJ. Thank you all.


No, you got it wrong. It's the *Lyft* drivers who are the traders, investment analysts and investors. The Uber drivers are their wealthy clients.


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## Guyinbp (Oct 7, 2018)

I_Like_Spam said:


> Looks like a buying opportunity for those who couldn't get in on the IPO, if they are still hot for Lyft.


Why would anyone buy this stock even at $70. Have you tried conducting a DCF. I have and see nothing positive for this company compared to the market. It's at best a $50 stock. After the lock-up period you will see more selling too. This is only the beginning. People think you make a fortune in an IPO. Not one that's been talked up so much and loses so much. They raised $2 billion, lost almost $1b in a quarter. How long will their cash hold out until they have to go to the debt market and pay high rights as a going concern? Or how long until they have to dilute shares through a secondary offering because they have no cash and the market treats their debt like junk. Or with the slowing economy and potential recession? Or if there's an oil shock? This is like Apron and Pets.com although they won't go under for a long time. If you're buying a company without doing an analysis you're just gambling. House always wins.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Guyinbp said:


> Why would anyone buy this stock even at $70. Have you tried conducting a DCF. I have and see nothing positive for this company compared to the market. It's at best a $50 stock. After the lock-up period you will see more selling too. This is only the beginning. People think you make a fortune in an IPO. Not one that's been talked up so much and loses so much. They raised $2 billion, lost almost $1b in a quarter. How long will their cash hold out until they have to go to the debt market and pay high rights as a going concern? Or how long until they have to dilute shares through a secondary offering because they have no cash and the market treats their debt like junk. Or with the slowing economy and potential recession? Or if there's an oil shock? This is like Apron and Pets.com although they won't go under for a long time. If you're buying a company without doing an analysis you're just gambling. House always wins.


Would you mind sharing your DCF with us?


----------



## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

CNBC has a rapper on to discuss LYFT. A rapper. Lol


----------



## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> CNBC has a rapper on to discuss LYFT. A rapper. Lol


Why not? Rappers have a lot of money, some of them might really be into this issue


----------



## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

I_Like_Spam said:


> Why not? Rappers have a lot of money, some of them might really be into this issue


What's that old saying? A rapper and his money are soon parted.


----------



## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> What's that old saying? A rapper and his money are soon parted.


The evaluation that the market has given Lyft is pretty insane in my own point of view. $23 Billion is more than the valuation given to 
United Airlines.


----------



## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

I_Like_Spam said:


> The evaluation that the market has given Lyft is pretty insane in my own point of view. $23 Billion is more than the valuation given to
> United Airlines.


What kills me is the fact that Ford(F), a real company that actually turns a profit and pays a healthy dividend, is only valued at $35B. Wall Street is bizarro world.


----------



## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> CNBC has a rapper on to discuss LYFT. A rapper. Lol


So what? There's a rapper in the White House.

Oh wait, you said "rapper". My bad.


----------



## MiamiKid (May 24, 2016)

ftupelo said:


> Ants,
> 
> Lyft should be trading here any second and Frankie plans on following the price action closely. I trade using interactive brokers, but you can easily follow the price on yahoo finance or Morningstar, among others. I believe shares will open at $72 giving the company a >$20B valuation. Where do you see the stock initially popping and where do you see it ending the day?
> 
> ...


LYFT's plunging today.


----------



## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

When I worked at Merrill Lynch trading floor in the eighties in 7th floor of the lower Manhattan office, there was senior trader with a deep, grouchy, whisky drinker, cigarette chain smoker voice, who sometimes would scream loudly "watch out below." Think I hear him now.


----------



## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> What kills me is the fact that Ford(F), a real company that actually turns a profit and pays a healthy dividend, is only valued at $35B. Wall Street is bizarro world.


RIP real companies.
RIP real earnings .
RIP Prudent Investing.
RIP Solid Fundamentals.
RIP Common Sense.

RIP My Patience
Sigh..


----------



## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

I haven't actually sold mine yet... Sigh


----------



## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

Can't imagine what the SIR will be when options open. Probably above 60%. Uber should be worried.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/l...trading-thursday-2019-04-01?mod=mw_quote_news


----------



## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Juggalo9er said:


> I haven't actually sold mine yet... Sigh


If Lyft goes under 20, I will definitely take a look at the stock.

But it might not be a good investment at that level, falling under the IPO price on the 2nd day of trading isn't a good sign.


----------



## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

Another wise comment by my old colleague was "don't ever try to catch a falling knife"


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

BeansnRice said:


> RIP real companies.
> RIP real earnings .
> RIP Prudent Investing.
> RIP Solid Fundamentals.
> ...


It could be bizarro world, but we must remember that valuation is based on future cash flows, not past performance. We must consider the future of mobility. Imagine a self-driving world where instead of cars being utilized 5% of the time like they are now, utilization goes to near 100%. How many fewer cars will be needed? Would you want to own a car manufacturer in a world where the same number of companies are fighting to produce 1/20 the number of cars they are now? In that world it will make no sense to own 100% of a vehicle you utilize 95% of the time - you will summon a vehicle when need be. Who will be the winners in that world - will it be the platform that connects people to rides?


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Juggalo9er said:


> I haven't actually sold mine yet... Sigh


Are you insane? Sell now man! You will never see prices this high again.


ftupelo said:


> It could be bizarro world, but we must remember that valuation is based on future cash flows, not past performance. We must consider the future of mobility. Imagine a self-driving world where instead of cars being utilized 5% of the time like they are now, utilization goes to near 100%. How many fewer cars will be needed? Would you want to own a car manufacturer in a world where the same number of companies are fighting to produce 1/20 the number of cars they are now? In that world it will make no sense to own 100% of a vehicle you utilize 95% of the time - you will summon a vehicle when need be. Who will be the winners in that world - will it be the platform that connects people to rides?


Interesting theory but we have very different expectations of when SDC will be a thing. The technology might be ready but I think the regulatory issues will persist for a very long time. Decades. Too long for these companies to survive unless they start turning a profit before then.


----------



## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

Both Uber and Lyft are only trying to survive until they can implement autonomous vehicles. However, in their race to their ultimate goal, to replace drivers with robots, they fail to see that they will be really only exchanging one monkey on their backs for a dinosaur that will become a permanent drain on profits and who won't be easily manipulated. 

I'm old friends with the two most influential lobbies in Florida. One red the other blue. Both agree that as technology replaces jobs with AI governments will be lining up for their cut. Uber and lyft want to replace drivers with robots to save 40% in costs, the same drivers who were the backbone of their business. However, when and if they're able to do that, cities, states, and federal government will step in an demand a tax on each robot, per mile and per usage(passenger fee). Eventually all fees combined will surpass whatever Uber and Lyft saves by eliminating drivers. Both my friends agree on one comment. Be careful what they wish for.


----------



## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

UberAdrian said:


> Are you insane? Sell now man! You will never see prices this high again.
> 
> Interesting theory but we have very different expectations of when SDC will be a thing. The technology might be ready but I think the regulatory issues will persist for a very long time. Decades. Too long for these companies to survive unless they start turning a profit before then.


It's just money &(


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

No Prisoners said:


> replace drivers with robots to save 40% in costs, the same drivers who were the backbone of their business.


Driver's cost 80%. I think they will still make lots of money at that rate even with the extra taxes. You fail to grasp the efficiency of robots!


----------



## 25rides7daysaweek (Nov 20, 2017)

I_Like_Spam said:


> Why not? Rappers have a lot of money, some of them might really be into this issue


Yea they probably started in a ghetto and that's where lyft's biggest customer base is here in Chicago.....


----------



## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

It's sold now... Made a very small amount of money lol


----------



## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

UberAdrian said:


> Driver's cost 80%. I think they will still make lots of money at that rate even with the extra taxes. You fail to grasp the efficiency of robots!


Agree. Robots much more efficient. However, once government steps in politicians just keep taking more and eventually uber and lyft will have to deal with regulations. They're not regulated at that level yet.

Anyhow, let's see how Lyft's stock performs and subsequently Uber's. There are many other platforms coming into market before autonomous vehicles can be populated.

There's a group of venture capital guys now backing a platform that will allow drivers to retain ? % of fares. Not only that, drivers will be real partners, with equity participation. I can't say more, other than they already have almost $80 million, probably over $200 by launch day in 50 cities. I'm under nondisclosure agreement. But trust me, it's coming. It will blow you away. Just keep eyes and ears open.

Other factors in horizon. Friends in Europe tell me that the EU, which is much harder on corporate than the US, is getting very concerned about uber's methods. Some in politics are comparing Uber's treatment of drivers to Chinese labor practices.

Look at what the EU is done with Google and Facebook. But Uber doesn't have the financial resources Google has.


----------



## Skepticaldriver (Mar 5, 2017)

Taksomotor said:


> Sell the scam, transfer money to off shores, change name, identity, and run. That would be my business plan.


Every harvest tech co ever



No Prisoners said:


> Agree. Robots much more efficient. However, once government steps in politicians just keep taking more and eventually uber and lyft will have to deal with regulations. They're not regulated at that level yet.
> 
> Anyhow, let's see how Lyft's stock performs and subsequently Uber's. There are many other platforms coming into market before autonomous vehicles can be populated.
> 
> ...


Lol. That was the og hype about uber and lyft.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> Are you insane? Sell now man! You will never see prices this high again.
> 
> Interesting theory but we have very different expectations of when SDC will be a thing. The technology might be ready but I think the regulatory issues will persist for a very long time. Decades. Too long for these companies to survive unless they start turning a profit before then.


What regulatory issues are so insurmountable that it will take decades to resolve?


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> What regulatory issues are so insurmountable that it will take decades to resolve?


General bureaucratic slowness and incompetence?


----------



## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

ftupelo said:


> It could be bizarro world, but we must remember that valuation is based on future cash flows, not past performance. We must consider the future of mobility. Imagine a self-driving world where instead of cars being utilized 5% of the time like they are now, utilization goes to near 100%. How many fewer cars will be needed? Would you want to own a car manufacturer in a world where the same number of companies are fighting to produce 1/20 the number of cars they are now? In that world it will make no sense to own 100% of a vehicle you utilize 95% of the time - you will summon a vehicle when need be. Who will be the winners in that world - will it be the platform that connects people to rides?


Bro,
Respectfully,

Stop drinking the KoolAid! It's spiked with nasty catch phrases and delusional fantasies.

Ownership is everything.....EVERYTHING!

Can't you see the world these tech oligarchs are creating?

They are trying to sell you on the idea of having a poor future with less everything....jobs, homeownership, car ownership, and eventually your soul .... no kidding.

Read what Elon Musk says about humans and machines .

Wake up....



UberAdrian said:


> Driver's cost 80%. I think they will still make lots of money at that rate even with the extra taxes. You fail to grasp the efficiency of robots!


80% of what? 
80% of zero is ..... ZERO.

There's no such thing as driver cost.....

Another false narrative....red herring BS.

That KoolAid Is no good. Stop drinking it!


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

> 80% of what?


80% of gross revenues.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> General bureaucratic slowness and incompetence?


That doesn't mean decades. I'm not sure what the issues are. Safety? It won't be difficult to show how much safer SDC are as opposed to human drivers.



BeansnRice said:


> Bro,
> Respectfully,
> 
> Stop drinking the KoolAid! It's spiked with nasty catch phrases and delusional fantasies.
> ...


Brosephire,

Are you telling me my future will be poorer because I will have to divert capital away from a depreciating asset (a vehicle) towards appreciating assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)? Just want to make sure I'm following your logic.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> That doesn't mean decades. I'm not sure what the issues are. Safety? It won't be difficult to show how much safer SDC are as opposed to human drivers.


It's a complicated move and a lot of stuff needs changing but moreso than that I think once the first wave of SDCs goes on the road and start killing people left and right there will be major public/political backlash that will slow things down. Even though the stats will show that SDCs are safer, people will still object because getting killed a robot is a new experience and people don't handle those well.



> Are you telling me my future will be poorer because I will have to divert capital away from a depreciating asset (a vehicle) towards appreciating assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)? Just want to make sure I'm following your logic.


I think he's saying your quality of life will be worse. It's still better to own your own car even if it costs more isn't it? As long as you can afford and the extra costs are eating into anything else. You only live once!

I for one consider cars extremely intimate/personal objects like a toothbrush and I would never ever share a car with anyone unless I was destitute and had absolutely no choice.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> It's a complicated move and a lot of stuff needs changing but moreso than that I think once the first wave of SDCs goes on the road and start killing people left and right there will be major public/political backlash that will slow things down. Even though the stats will show that SDCs are safer, people will still object because getting killed a robot is a new experience and people don't handle those well.


I don't see what needs changing. All that is different is instead of a fallible human with limited senses, you will have a robot with full 360 vision and split-second reaction time that is capable of showing orders of magnitude fewer accidents. There will always be Luddites who are scared of robots, but the average human should be able to grasp statistics that will show a 99% reduction in accidents from SDC.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> I don't see what needs changing. All that is different is instead of a fallible human with limited senses, you will have a robot with full 360 vision and split-second reaction time that is capable of showing orders of magnitude fewer accidents. There will always be Luddites who are scared of robots, but the average human should be able to grasp statistics that will show a 99% reduction in accidents from SDC.


It's not so much stuff that needs changing as it is new stuff that needs to be added. Like who is responsible for what when robots go haywire etc. Also I think you give humanity way too much credit. The average human is not nearly as rational as you claim. I learned this driving rideshare.


----------



## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

UberAdrian said:


> 80% of gross revenues.


See now your telling me, that U/ L has solicited and taken and spent billions of dollars in INVESTOR funds, funds at risk, without knowing what their true bottom line economics were?

The problem with these companies then must be incompetence and mismanagement of investor funds at the outset.

If that's the case, then the SEC will be all over it soon.

How/Why would you ever start a business and not understand the necessary labor costs to run it?

By the way, why would anyone ever think to build/scale a taxi business to the point where every person in any given major city at least would be able to have a car in minutes and think it would be cheap.

This is like over farming land to the point where the soil can yield no more.

OOPS boys we made a mistake.... Let's just blame it on who? THE LABOR FORCE.

Yeah...that's why we're losing money. Yeah.....must be the drivers... That's what we'll tell everyone.

This corporate KoolAid should be banned.

It's putting real lives at risk..... dam.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

BeansnRice said:


> See now your telling me, that U/ L has solicited and taken and spent billions of dollars in INVESTOR funds, funds at risk, without knowing what their true bottom line economics were?
> 
> The problem with these companies then must be incompetence and mismanagement of investor funds at the outset.


Yes & yes. The rest of your argument is hard to follow, not sure what you're trying to say.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> It's not so much stuff that needs changing as it is new stuff that needs to be added. Like who is responsible for what when robots go haywire etc. Also I think you give humanity way too much credit. The average human is not nearly as rational as you claim. I learned this driving rideshare.


Well, when the robot goes haywire, the robot will be at fault, therefore the owner of the robot will be responsible. The robot owner will have insurance (same as the current mandate for vehicle operation) and the insurance will cover the damages to the injured and can go after the robot manufacturer if need be. Current laws and legal liability concepts will still apply. People get in accidents now and fight over liability - there is no difference - in fact, there should be much more data available analyze to determine fault.

These cars have already driven millions of miles on the streets (i understand with a "driver" sitting in the passenger seat) and have already killed someone, yet they are still being tested full speed ahead. It doesn't require convincing every dunce of the benefits, it requires convincing lawmakers who should be above average intelligence and can understand the far superior safety proposition of SDC. Do you think the US is going to let the rest of the world move in that direction while we sit back and stifle innovation?


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

Took it short this morning. Decent trade, glad to catch it coming down this morning.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

michael7227 said:


> Took it short this morning. Decent trade, glad to catch it coming down this morning.


Oh ya? What was your borrowing cost?


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

No cost intraday... My trade executions added up to $2 (I did not take large size).


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> Oh ya? What was your borrowing cost?


I would like to know this too! I'm thinking 400% lol. I'm dying to go short on this but I'm going to wait for the options chain to go live so I can buy puts. The profits from shorts are pathetic compared to puts. I just hope the price stays kind of up for 6 months until the lockup period expires so I can make a huge fortune. There are a lot of shares in insider hands and I'm sure they will be dying to dump them.



> No cost intraday


I don't think there's ever a cost for intraday but what's your interest rate to roll it?


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

I'm out of the position. NO BORROWING COST.

You only pay holding overnight.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

UberAdrian said:


> I would like to know this too! I'm thinking 400% lol. I'm dying to go short on this but I'm going to wait for the options chain to go live so I can buy puts. The profits from shorts are pathetic compared to puts. I just hope the price stays kind of up for 6 months until the lockup period expires so I can make a huge fortune. There are a lot of shares in insider hands and I'm sure they will be dying to dump them.
> 
> I don't think there's ever a cost for intraday but what's your interest rate to roll it?


Puts may not be cheap either. It looked like Lyft had found support around $70 after having gapped down this morning, but alas, it broke down quickly in the last 20 minutes.


----------



## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

ftupelo said:


> Puts may not be cheap either. It looked like Lyft had found support around $70 after having gapped down this morning, but alas, it broke down quickly in the last 20 minutes.


Below $69 now. I'm sure there will be support around $0.


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

UberAdrian said:


> I would like to know this too! I'm thinking 400% lol. I'm dying to go short on this but I'm going to wait for the options chain to go live so I can buy puts. The profits from shorts are pathetic compared to puts. I just hope the price stays kind of up for 6 months until the lockup period expires so I can make a huge fortune. There are a lot of shares in insider hands and I'm sure they will be dying to dump them.
> 
> I don't think there's ever a cost for intraday but what's your interest rate to roll it?


Dunno I never hold overnight, never even looked up my brokers margin rate.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> Puts may not be cheap either. It looked like Lyft had found support around $70 after having gapped down this morning, but alas, it broke down quickly in the last 20 minutes.


The float is low, easy for big players to manipulate the price briefly. Ya puts will be expensive, volatility will be very high. I'll just go deep into the money to capture 99% delta because I'm very bearish on this at this nonsense price. Once it goes below $50 I'll look at things again. It will be a big trade but I'll still make lots of money! I'll also grab some 1 week lotto puts a bit out of the money too since I only see this going down, down, down.

As for support, there's a lot of layering going on and a lot of support and resistance lines are mostly fake and disintegrate quickly. Loads of prop firms are getting fined left and right for layering.



> Dunno I never hold overnight, never even looked up my brokers margin rate


That's not relevant because the margin rate only applies to borrowed cash. When you borrow stocks, they have an interest rate specific to that stock at that time. There should be a popup or some kind of very clear message indicating the interest rate when you do the trade.


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

No there is not, you are wrong. There is no cost to borrow at my broker only a cost to locate (shares were available and again this is intraday). Overnight I am not sure about because I do not hold overnight.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

michael7227 said:


> No there is not, you are wrong. There is no cost to borrow at my broker only a cost to locate (shares were available and again this is intraday).


Right, and after they locate the shares you will still have to pay interest to the owner. So you are paying twice.

Your broker should have shares in inventory to loan you! Otherwise it's a sucky broker.


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

My total cost was approximately $2 and I am fine with that maybe it's rolled into the execution price or commission? Who knows WHO CARES it was a profitable trade and made more than rideshare on LYFT today so hope your day is going well also!

I don't get into the minutiae of that kind of thing it doesn't make me any more profitable.


----------



## SEAL Team 5 (Dec 19, 2015)

Irishjohn831 said:


> $110, that's a tough climb.


Especially when it's at $68 right now. The Chicago Board of Trade expected to list options for Lyft on Thurs and put even more pressure on Lyft.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

michael7227 said:


> My total cost was approximately $2 and I am fine with that maybe it's rolled into the execution price or commission? Who knows WHO CARES it was a profitable trade and made more than rideshare on LYFT today so hope your day is going well also!
> 
> I don;t get into the minutiae of that kind of thing it doesn't make me any more profitable.


Congrats! I care though because I don't day trade, I swing trade...therefore I want to know what kind of interest rates are involved because I'll be paying them 

Your total cost of $2 seems exceptionally low though. I would expect at super least $10 ish in total transaction costs. How did you get it so low?


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

I'm with an excellent broker and soon will be out of this rideshare (hopefully).


$10 is for those with sucky brokers!


----------



## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

UberAdrian said:


> Are you insane? Sell now man! You will never see prices this high again.


You never know with stocks. If you have good news for Lyft and if there are a sufficient amount of short interest, you could get short squeezed and see the price really rise.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

michael7227 said:


> $10 is for those with sucky brokers!


Haha indeed! I thought $10 was very low until I heard about this $2 stuff. Do you have some kind of penny/share deal or something or are you always paying $2 for all your trades?


----------



## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

It's per share and I forgot how I chose but you have two choices flat or tiered I'm on flat I believe because of low volume. its something like .0035 per share. *edited per share number*

I executed one short and one cover total commission two bux. (again small size)


----------



## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

UberAdrian said:


> Driver's cost 80%. I think they will still make lots of money at that rate even with the extra taxes. You fail to grasp the efficiency of robots!


Drivers do not cost Uber and Lyft 80%. Actually drivers and cars combined cost less than 50% of most of the Uber and Lyft fares at this time. Some of the driver costs (to Lyft and Uber) are as low as 30% depending on the fare.

The problem with robot cars is that Uber and Lyft would actually have to pay for those vehicles. There go the margins!


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Bob Reynolds said:


> Drivers do not cost Uber and Lyft 80%. Actually drivers and cars combined cost less than 50% of most of the Uber and Lyft fares at this time. Some of the driver costs (to Lyft and Uber) are as low as 30% depending on the fare.
> 
> The problem with robot cars is that Uber and Lyft would actually have to pay for those vehicles. There go the margins!


Show me your math. Here's mine.

Lyft took in 8.1b in gross bookings in FY2018. Their net revenue on this was 2.2b (because the rest went straight to the drivers). That's 73% of all income going to drivers (it used to be higher). They are squeezing drivers and the number is falling but its nowhere near 40. Sure it might be 30-50 on some individual trips but that's not relevant.



> The problem with robot cars is that Uber and Lyft would actually have to pay for those vehicles. There go the margins!


Not a big deal, still way cheaper than having human drivers.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Bob Reynolds said:


> Drivers do not cost Uber and Lyft 80%. Actually drivers and cars combined cost less than 50% of most of the Uber and Lyft fares at this time. Some of the driver costs (to Lyft and Uber) are as low as 30% depending on the fare.
> 
> The problem with robot cars is that Uber and Lyft would actually have to pay for those vehicles. There go the margins!


Driver is costing Lyft 71.3%. As you can see from the S-1, Lyft is only capturing 28.7% of bookings (fare paid by passenger) rest of the booking is going to the driver.












UberAdrian said:


> Show me your math. Here's mine.
> 
> Lyft took in 8.1b in gross bookings in FY2018. Their net revenue on this was 2.2b (because the rest went straight to the drivers). That's 73% of all income going to drivers (it used to be higher). They are squeezing drivers and the number is falling but its nowhere near 40. Sure it might be 30-50 on some individual trips but that's not relevant.
> 
> Not a big deal, still way cheaper than having human drivers.


There is a lot of information available to the public now, but most of the folks on here continue to spitball their pre-conceived beliefs as facts.


----------



## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

ftupelo said:


> Driver is costing Lyft 71.3%. As you can see from the S-1, Lyft is only capturing 28.7% of bookings (fare paid by passenger) rest of the booking is going to the driver.
> 
> View attachment 308736
> 
> ...


Something is not adding up here. 50% of the rides are under $10 and under 4 miles. If it is a $10 or under fare the passengers pays a $2.70 service fee to Lyft which the driver gets NONE of. Then Lyft takes another $1.90 in commissions. That totals $4.60 on a simple low cost fare for Lyft X.

Perhaps Lyft is giving fare concessions to customers that are skewing the numbers.

The bottom line is that if Lyft and Uber were charging the correct amount that it really costs to provide this taxi service and make a profit then all of these smoke and mirrors would not be needed.


----------



## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Bob Reynolds said:


> Something is not adding up here. 50% of the rides are under $10 and under 4 miles. If it is a $10 or under fare the passengers pays a $2.70 service fee to Lyft which the driver gets NONE of. Then Lyft takes another $1.90 in commissions. That totals $4.60 on a simple low cost fare for Lyft X.
> 
> Perhaps Lyft is giving fare concessions to customers that are skewing the numbers.
> 
> The bottom line is that if Lyft and Uber were charging the correct amount that it really costs to provide this taxi service and make a profit then all of these smoke and mirrors would not be needed.


If anything, Lyft would have padded the numbers to make their revenue as a percentage of bookings look higher than it is. This will be a key metric going forward. Showing the ability to capture more of the economics from each ride will enhance the value of the company. The numbers are what they are - don't try to back in to them using imperfect data and assumptions.


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## leroy jenkins (May 27, 2015)

i wish i saw this thread earlier. no good to make an IPO prediction after the fact.

Watch April 4. Options trading on Lyft starts. My random guess is that Lyft will squeeze higher as people get caught on the wrong side of puts.

Lyft is a dumpster fire. And eventually wind up like Groupon, Snapchat, or Blue Apron. But if you want to buy puts/go short, patience grasshopper.


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

ftupelo said:


> @UberAdrian I still don't see what figures you are looking at. Nothing I have seen points to numbers topping out. Active riders continues to grow - they added 1.2mm active riders between Q3 and Q4 and have trended towards adding a million new riders each and every quarter. Revenue per active rider has increased Q/Q back to March 2016. Total rides also continue to rise. At some point, yes, growth will slow and the percentage will certainly slow as they attempt to grow off of a larger base.
> 
> View attachment 308000


Gotcha!

Look closer at the numbers.

Q1 '16. Active rider takes 8.5 rides 
Q4'18 9.5 rides

Almost every quarter the median rides per active pax goes up, modestly. That and price increases are main reasons for the rev/active rider

These are b.s. headline stats anyway.

There is a lot you can pull from this, but first you need to know if the Rides are only referring the Active riders.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

@Diamondraider I don't see your point.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

SEAL Team 5 said:


> Especially when it's at $68 right now. The Chicago Board of Trade expected to list options for Lyft on Thurs and put even more pressure on Lyft.


Recognize sarcasm.... Please


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

> If it is a $10 or under fare the passengers pays a $2.70 service fee to Lyft which the driver gets NONE of.


Lyft doesn't get any of that booking fee either. It's the tax. It all goes to government. You may notice that the booking fee varies from place to place, that's because each municipality decides how much it's going to be.



> My random guess is that Lyft will squeeze higher as people get caught on the wrong side of puts.


Yes I agree this is possible. There will be a lot of volatility for a little while, then it'll be dump city.



> Perhaps Lyft is giving fare concessions to customers that are skewing the numbers.


Ya they are and it's probably their biggest line item, however it doesn't skew anything. Driver and rider incentives come out of their 28% cut along with all the rest of their overhead.


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## SEAL Team 5 (Dec 19, 2015)

Juggalo9er said:


> Recognize sarcasm.... Please


Many investors like myself remember the dot bomb craze of the late 90's and it's hard to put a $20 billion valuation on a transportation company that doesn't even own a single vehicle.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

SEAL Team 5 said:


> Many investors like myself remember the dot bomb craze of the late 90's and it's hard to put a $20 billion valuation on a transportation company that doesn't even own a single vehicle.


Like Groupon..... It's the database lol


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## Niner687 (Aug 17, 2016)

leroy jenkins said:


> i wish i saw this thread earlier. no good to make an IPO prediction after the fact.
> 
> Watch April 4. Options trading on Lyft starts. My random guess is that Lyft will squeeze higher as people get caught on the wrong side of puts.
> 
> Lyft is a dumpster fire. And eventually wind up like Groupon, Snapchat, or Blue Apron. But if you want to buy puts/go short, patience grasshopper.


Apr 4? Do you mean May 4th?


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

SEAL Team 5 said:


> Many investors like myself remember the dot bomb craze of the late 90's and it's hard to put a $20 billion valuation on a transportation company that doesn't even own a single vehicle.


Maybe this is why it has a $20B valuation, it is an asset-light software company, not a capital intensive car manufacture or the like.

It looked like Lyft was setting up for another substantial down day. Apparently, some buyers have stepped in - maybe the banks that floated the IPO coming in to support the stock. I believe one analyst came out with a $42 price target today - Ouch!

I think we may see some support and possibly a little bounce here. Medium term, I think this thing continues to trend down - the valuation was too rich off of the Unicorn IPO hype. As more Unicorns come to market, folks will be reallocating capital to those names and some of that money is going to flow out of Lyft, putting even more downward pressure on the name.


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## Gary275 (Jan 26, 2018)

Being down when the market is running high on fumes takes some special type of company. Likely going down to 45 or so before any bounce. Gone are days of dot com where u would want to be placed on ipo list to be in and out for 30 to 50 % Market will wait for first public earnings and until they r good dont expect it to go anywhere


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

Price chart is looking like a stairway to the basement.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

1.5xorbust said:


> Price chart is looking like a stairway to the basement.


We may just end the day in the green.



ftupelo said:


> We may just end the day in the green.


How prescient of me.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> We may just end the day in the green.
> 
> 
> How prescient of me.


May have spoke too soon!


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

The smart money will be moving from Lyft to Bitcoin. It’s about due for a dead cat bounce.


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## Woohaa (Jan 15, 2017)

UberAdrian said:


> Now that they have the $20b investor dollars I'm sure growth will explode even more for a while. But the fundamental problem still exists my dude! The business model literally doesn't work as is. Prices have to go up. What do you think that's going to do to ridership and profits? The entire system may not even work lol...c'mon now you're avoiding the question!
> 
> I think the entire point of U/L going public is to get cash to survive long enough to replace all drivers with self driving cars. If they had SDC they could be super profitable. Maybe they will do it! Maybe they will go bankrupt trying though...it's tough to say.


Far as drivers are concerned they can keep their prices as is, just take less of the pie. 25%+ to run an app us ridiculous. Drivers provide the car, gas, customer service, etc., so we should receive the lion's share of the monies.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Woohaa said:


> Far as drivers are concerned they can keep their prices as is, just take less of the pie. 25%+ to run an app us ridiculous. Drivers provide the car, gas, customer service, etc., so we should receive the lion's share of the monies.


@Woohaa If 25%+ is wrong, when what is the right number? If Lyft is unable to cover app operating costs with 25%+, then why should they take less? If running an app is so easy, why are they losing $1B a year in doing so?


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## Woohaa (Jan 15, 2017)

ftupelo said:


> @Woohaa If 25%+ is wrong, when what is the right number? If Lyft is unable to cover app operating costs with 25%+, then why should they take less? If running an app is so easy, why are they losing $1B a year in doing so?


I suspect massive waste and inefficiency are the culprits. Considering WE provide everything they need to exist free of charge. They reimburse us for our time (basically) and for nothing else.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

They could turn profit on the 25% if they didn't spend all their money growing the user base.

Ultimately though, whether 10% or 35% it doesn't really matter much because the part where they really screw you is the base price. Always getting cheaper so as to appeal to a wider audience at your expense. $3 morons will be replaced by $2 scumbags and eventually by $0.50 bums. Does their cut really matter when the base price is down like 300% from where it started?


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Woohaa said:


> I suspect massive waste and inefficiency are the culprits. Considering WE provide everything they need to exist free of charge. They reimburse us for our time (basically) and for nothing else.


This didn't answer the question.


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## Woohaa (Jan 15, 2017)

ftupelo said:


> This didn't answer the question.


This was your question:

_"If running an app is so easy, why are they losing $1B a year in doing so?"_

Asked and answered. Pay attention to what you post. It helps. ?


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Woohaa said:


> This was your question:
> 
> _"If running an app is so easy, why are they losing $1B a year in doing so?"_
> 
> Asked and answered. Pay attention to what you post. It helps. ?


If 25%+ is wrong, when what is the right number? If Lyft is unable to cover app operating costs with 25%+, then why should they take less?

Those were the other two questions that you failed to address. Instead you provide a lazy answer to the third question. Waste and inefficiency does not account for the $1B loss. The company has heavy pricing competition, high driver costs, and a large cost structure to run the app. It's a combination of many factors. Regardless of the reasons, with the 27% margins, they are not able to cover operating expenses, so they need to expand, NOT contract that number.

I was hoping to hear a thoughtful answer as to why the 25%+ is the wrong number.


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## Woohaa (Jan 15, 2017)

ftupelo said:


> If 25%+ is wrong, when what is the right number? If Lyft is unable to cover app operating costs with 25%+, then why should they take less?
> 
> Those were the other two questions that you failed to address. Instead you provide a lazy answer to the third question. Waste and inefficiency does not account for the $1B loss. The company has heavy pricing competition, high driver costs, and a large cost structure to run the app. It's a combination of many factors. Regardless of the reasons, with the 27% margins, they are not able to cover operating expenses, so they need to expand, NOT contract that number.
> 
> I was hoping to hear a thoughtful answer as to why the 25%+ is the wrong number.


Didn't realize extra credit was given for answering all questions. I'll remember that on the next test....


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## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

Its not 80 / 20. Not even 75 / 25.

The last 3 months of last year I drove full time. My statement for the year was 28k in gross bookings with 14k in payouts.

Thats 50 / 50.


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## Alexxx_Uber (Sep 3, 2018)

I’m smelling another pay cut is coming soon. How else would they be profitable?


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## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

They could cut pay to 0 and they would still be losing money.

They are losing more than they are paying us.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

jaxbeachrides said:


> Its not 80 / 20. Not even 75 / 25.
> 
> The last 3 months of last year I drove full time. My statement for the year was 28k in gross bookings with 14k in payouts.
> 
> Thats 50 / 50.


That may well be so, but not everyone gets paid the same way as you. I'm sure it varies wildly from driver to driver, but on average it's approaching 70/30.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

Short squeeze is on. Nearly back up to the $72 IPO price.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

jaxbeachrides said:


> They could cut pay to 0 and they would still be losing money.
> 
> They are losing more than they are paying us.


Just not true. Bookings were $8.054B and Opex was $3.134. Without paying drivers, Lyft would have made ~$5B.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> Just not true. Bookings were $8.054B and Opex was $3.134. Without paying drivers, Lyft would have made ~$5B.


I can confirm this math!

Can you do an assessment of what Lyft's profits would have been in a real scenario where drivers aren't just magically removed from the system but replaced with SDC?


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Interesting price action with Lyft over the last few days. It appears that early on the flippers rushed to the doors to cash out from the IPO temporarily driving down the price. Bounced off the lows at $67 and has since shown some relative strength and stabilization. I could see the price oscillating around this $72 IPO price until we get the next earnings report as a catalyst in either direction.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

ftupelo said:


> Interesting price action with Lyft over the last few days. It appears that early on the flippers rushed to the doors to cash out from the IPO temporarily driving down the price. Bounced off the lows at $67 and has since shown some relative strength and stabilization. I could see the price oscillating around this $72 IPO price until we get the next earnings report as a catalyst in either direction.


I'm seeing this more as the eye of the storm and expecting major volatility until earnings.
Let's see what happens...


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

Keep in mind that the underwriters are going to keep this stock propped up for the first 30 days. The price of stocks move up and down all day long. What people focus are the open and the close price which can be manipulated.

1. The open is reported as the first trade of the day. For example if the real price of the shares are $65, someone could buy 100 shares at $75 a share as the first trade and the open would report as $75. The "manipulator" would only "lose" $10 a share, on such a trade, which in the scheme of things is cheap to protect a multi million dollar investment.

2. Same thing on the close. The stock could be floating around $65 all day and the final trade of the day is $75. The $75 gets reported and everyone assumes the price of the stock is going up.

If you watch the coming three weeks, you will see this is how the market makers are going to keep this stock propped up.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Bob Reynolds said:


> Keep in mind that the underwriters are going to keep this stock propped up for the first 30 days. The price of stocks move up and down all day long. What people focus are the open and the close price which can be manipulated.


If there is a lot of short interest on LYFT share, that pent up demand. Those who shorted the stock will have to buy it at a future date.

Supply and demand still rule the day in any market, and there could easily be a short squeeze and those who are long could profit nicely.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

I_Like_Spam said:


> If there is a lot of short interest on LYFT share, that pent up demand. Those who shorted the stock will have to buy it at a future date.
> 
> Supply and demand still rule the day in any market, and there could easily be a short squeeze and those who are long could profit nicely.


It's shorts against the longs. Who can hold out longer?


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Bob Reynolds said:


> It's shorts against the longs. Who can hold out longer?


Longs, obviously! Shorts are easily shaken out of their holdings.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

UberAdrian said:


> Longs, obviously! Shorts are easily shaken out of their holdings.


On CNBC this afternoon, the announcers said there was a shortage of LYFT stock available to be loaned to be shorted. A lot of traders really think the short position is the way to go


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## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

ftupelo said:


> Just not true. Bookings were $8.054B and Opex was $3.134. Without paying drivers, Lyft would have made ~$5B.


Ok you're right. If lyft / uber didn't have to pay drivers they would have a fleet of very expensive rapidly depreciating autonomous vehicles.

They would have made at least 5 billion. Before expenses.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

jaxbeachrides said:


> Ok you're right. If lyft / uber didn't have to pay drivers they would have a fleet of very expensive rapidly depreciating autonomous vehicles.
> 
> They would have made at least 5 billion. Before expenses.


They would have made $5B after expenses if they could eliminate their largest expense, the Ant. Costs should come down with a fleet of SDCs. Economies of scale will allowed for efficiencies that cannot be realized by a single ant.


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

ftupelo said:


> They would have made $5B after expenses if they could eliminate their largest expense, the Ant. Costs should come down with a fleet of SDCs. Economies of scale will allowed for efficiencies that cannot be realized by a single ant.


So they'll be getting this fleet of SDC's for free just like the ants' fleet of cars?


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

1.5xorbust said:


> So they'll be getting this fleet of SDC's for free just like the ants' fleet of cars?


What they are going to try to do is to work out a deal with automobile manufacturers to get the fleet in exchange for part of the action.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

1.5xorbust said:


> So they'll be getting this fleet of SDC's for free just like the ants' fleet of cars?


No, I was clarifying a previously articulated point. I then expanded on the expense side by pointing out the expansive economies of scale that, relative to the cost of an Ant, will be vastly cheaper.



I_Like_Spam said:


> What they are going to try to do is to work out a deal with automobile manufacturers to get the fleet in exchange for part of the action.


I think the platforms partner with either newly formed third party fleet managers, or partner with rental car companies who already have experience and expertise in fleet management.


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## mrpjfresh (Aug 16, 2016)

UberAdrian said:


> Always getting cheaper so as to appeal to a wider audience at your expense. $3 morons will be replaced by $2 scumbags and eventually by $0.50 bums


I laughed but honestly, so very true. Quite a few of the bums who live up in the hills, behind the supermarket, or wherever have recently discovered the efficiency and cheap price of U/L in my market. Private car service for people living under a freeway overpass... you can't make this up. I wonder if that was always in the grand vision.



ftupelo said:


> They would have made $5B after expenses if they could eliminate their largest expense, the Ant.


It is amusing these TNCs feel entitled to 100% of the rider payment given what they essentially are - a broker. The fact they consider drivers an expense shows the model is totally ass backwards. They honestly should be nothing more than a middle man, matching drivers and riders for a fee. And if this fee cannot cover their true largest expense - insurance - then make drivers carry their own. If they _still_ cannot turn a profit, they probably should not exist.



ftupelo said:


> I think the platforms partner with either newly formed third party fleet managers, or partner with rental car companies who already have experience and expertise in fleet management.


I think you are spot-on here. Uber and Lyft love a partner on whom they can lay the bulk of an expense. Who knows? Get third party fools with little to no experience even in fleet management to take the risk. I mean, why not keep a good thing going?


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

ftupelo said:


> No, I was clarifying a previously articulated point. I then expanded on the expense side by pointing out the expansive economies of scale that, relative to the cost of an Ant, will be vastly cheaper.
> 
> 
> I think the platforms partner with either newly formed third party fleet managers, or partner with rental car companies who already have experience and expertise in fleet management.


What evidence do you have that Uber or Lyft owning self driving vehicles will be vastly cheaper? Here are some of the expenses they will have to deal with:

1. Gasoline. (Currently this costs .12-.15 cents a mile) No one gets free gas.
2. Dead Miles. Most Lyfts and Ubers require that the vehicle drive to the passenger to pick them up. This takes gas. Dead miles can be 1-4 times the number of paid miles. 
3. Insurance. Insurance costs are not going down. They are going up.
4. Maintenance cost of the vehicles. Tires, brakes, suspension costs. The more they drive-the more the maintenance cost will be.
5. Cleaning cost of the vehicle. Normal car washes, daily vacuum cleaning, normal daily wipe downs of the interior. What if someone throws up or vandalizes the vehicle? All of this will require people that they have to pay. 
6. The cost of the car itself. How much are these cars going to cost? They aren't free.

There is the other elephant in the room.

Once this self driving technology is developed (if it is developed) then the companies that make the cars (Tesla, Toyota, Ford, GM, etc) and the companies that own the cars (Hertz, Avis, Alamo, Enterprise, other companies and individuals, etc.) can easily enter this sector. At that point, there is no need for Uber or Lyft other than as a possible licensee of their app. (Much like Disney does today with the Minnie Vans) By this time, there will be many apps from companies like Marriott, Google, Apple, Amazon, GM, Ford, Tesla, Hertz, Avis, etc. that will be able to dispatch a self driving car. (If it ever comes to this)


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Bob Reynolds said:


> What evidence do you have that Uber or Lyft owning self driving vehicles will be vastly cheaper? Here are some of the expenses they will have to deal with:
> 
> 1. Gasoline. (Currently this costs .12-.15 cents a mile) No one gets free gas.
> 2. Dead Miles. Most Lyfts and Ubers require that the vehicle drive to the passenger to pick them up. This takes gas. Dead miles can be 1-4 times the number of paid miles.
> ...


Bob,

Thank you for the thoughtful response. Below are my reactions:
1. the estimates I have seen that get to $0.26/mile to the consumer assume electric vehicles. My understanding is that electricity is materially cheaper than petrol. Alternatively, the fleet manager could sign an exclusive agreement with an Exxon as their sole petrol provider and get bulk pricing. Also, instead of one driver and one passenger in a car that seats 5-7 and weighs two tonnes, what if SDC's look like smart cars and are much more efficient?
2. somewhat mitigated by my answer to number one - AI will also eventually be able to predict supply and demand and efficiently route vehicles to achieve optimal productivity.
3. Insurance will be exceedingly cheep because SDC's will rarely, if ever, get in accidents. Insurance will be pooled and cover the entire fleet as opposed to one-off single consumer pricing
4. Maintenance will be handled by the fleet manager at a central location. Thriftiest option will be to have a fleet with a single vehicle type, a la what Southwest Airlines does, that will utilize all the same parts (again, purchased with bulk discounts).
5. Cleaning will again be done at a central location - credit cards on file combined with copious, ubiquitous, in-vehicle cameras will prevent damage. Tesla is already installing cameras in their cars with this in mind.
6. Cars will have a similar cost to what cars currently cost, plus inflation. SDC components will be more expensive at first, but like all tech, is deflationary. The issue with car cost is utilization - most cars sit idle 95% of the time.

I agree with your final point and have addressed this topic thoughtfully either in this thread or elsewhere. Yes competition is coming. It will only serve to force suppliers to wring out efficiencies, thereby driving down the price to consumers. Not all car makers will want to create their own platforms and will choose to partner with existing platforms. There was a great piece in the Wall Street Journal today that I think will serve as a blue-print. Some automobile manufacturers are choosing to create "tech" departments to develop their own infotainment software, while others have chosen to outsource to Google and Apple.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ba...nquered-screenthe-one-in-your-car-11554523220


mrpjfresh said:


> It is amusing these TNCs feel entitled to 100% of the rider payment given what they essentially are - a broker. The fact they consider drivers an expense shows the model is totally ass backwards. They honestly should be nothing more than a middle man, matching drivers and riders for a fee. And if this fee cannot cover their true largest expense - insurance - then make drivers carry their own. If they _still_ cannot turn a profit, they probably should not exist.


@mrpjfresh By 100%, I assume you actually mean 26.8% (probably just a rounding error on your part) - that is Lyft's take from each ride. Why shouldn't they consider the ant an expense? Every business considers their employees as an expense - why, because it cost them money and anything that costs them money needs to be expensed. Are you also advocating that they put more of an insurance expense onto the Ant?


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

ftupelo said:


> Bob,
> 
> Thank you for the thoughtful response. Below are my reactions:
> 1. the estimates I have seen that get to $0.26/mile to the consumer assume electric vehicles. My understanding is that electricity is materially cheaper than petrol. Alternatively, the fleet manager could sign an exclusive agreement with an Exxon as their sole petrol provider and get bulk pricing. Also, instead of one driver and one passenger in a car that seats 5-7 and weighs two tonnes, what if SDC's look like smart cars and are much more efficient?
> ...


1. There is no question that electric power is less expensive per mile than gasoline. The problem is that the more weight you have in the vehicle (passengers and possibly luggage) the more power it takes per mile to move the vehicle. On top of that there is not yet an electric vehicle that will work, in the United States, in a taxi service type environment like Lyft and Uber.

2. Most of us currently use a GPS system to take the most optimal route. I'm not clear that we are so inefficient at this time that there are any measurable potential savings for a more optimal route. The only possible savings that I could see at this time is to slow the electric car down so that it does not require as much power to get from point a to point b. With electric cars, more electricity is used, per mile, when a car is traveling faster.

3. Insurance may get cheaper. But don't count on it. Insurance may get more expensive. And that's even if an insurance company will write a policy on a self driving car.

4. Fleet Maintenance is fleet maintenance. There is a cost to it that Lyft and Uber will be paying. It's been my experience that fleet management companies do try to be as efficient as possible. Keep in mind there are going to be a lot of vehicles that are going to have to be dealt with by Lyft and Uber. It might cost them more for maintenance on these vehicles than what the Uber and Lyft drivers pay.

5. Cleaning (Interior and Exterior) will need to be done on a daily basis. How, where and who is going to do this? There will be damages. Some will be normal wear and tear. Some will be intentional. Cigarette burns come to mind as a potential problem. I've found many smokers don't pay attention to no smoking signs.

6. Yes cars cost and they are not free. You are probably looking at $40,000-$50,000 each if they were available. I would expect a higher utilization rate. However it's not going to be anywhere near 100%. The reason for this is that there are peak times for rides. There are some parts of the day with low or no demand. So during the morning rush the cars will be busy (as they are now). During the early afternoon and late at night there is not much demand. The problem is that Uber and Lyft have to own those vehicles 24 hours a day and there may only be 12 hours of demand for those vehicles. Also electric cars need to be charged in order to run. If these vehicles are going to have to be charged several times a day, that will take away utilization as well as battery life.

As far as competition, this is really an app. Any of those companies that I have mentioned previously can create a similar app. Some may give the service away and not even charge for it. Marriott could provide free pick up at the airport to bring you to their hotel. A restaurant could pick you up at no charge if you have reservations. GM or Ford could give their service to you if your car is in the shop. Amazon could give their ride service to take you to whole foods. Wal-Mart could give you their service to bring you to Wal-Mart to shop for groceries. While you might have some companies partner with Uber or Lyft (like Disney) at the beginning; those same companies will leave as soon as they understand the business and realize they can eliminate the middleman and have more vertical control over their products and services. Although Lyft and Uber paved the way, I don't see how they can hold onto this self driving car business as it evolves. (If it does evolve) They have probably make a tactical error with going in that direction because it woke everyone else up that is interested in self driving vehicles.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Bob Reynolds said:


> 5. Cleaning (Interior and Exterior) will need to be done on a daily basis. How, where and who is going to do this? There will be damages. Some will be normal wear and tear. Some will be intentional. Cigarette burns come to mind as a potential problem. I've found many smokers don't pay attention to no smoking signs.


I don't think your self-drivers will have cloth or leather seats, look at more of a vinyl/plastic situation which will reduce the amount of damages and facilitate easier cleaning. In Seattle they had 5 self-cleaning public toilets, we had one here in Pittsburgh which is still standing but not in operation. Uber may want to go with self cleaning for their self drivers as well.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

I_Like_Spam said:


> I don't think your self-drivers will have cloth or leather seats, look at more of a vinyl/plastic situation which will reduce the amount of damages and facilitate easier cleaning. In Seattle they had 5 self-cleaning public toilets, we had one here in Pittsburgh which is still standing but not in operation. Uber may want to go with self cleaning for their self drivers as well.


I would hope they will have durable upholstery because they are going to need it!

However those interiors still need to be vacuumed and wiped down on a daily basis especially with the higher utilization they are going to get.

The vehicles will have mud, dirt, sand and debris on the interior including gum and candy wrappers, fast food condiments, cigar cellophane wrappers, water bottles, soda bottles, forgotten jackets and shoes, etc. I have had all of these items this past week in my vehicle and I vacuum and wipe down my vehicle every day.


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## EdThatUberGuy (Feb 20, 2019)

It dropped to around 68 within a few days of opening. I think it's hovering in the mid seventies now.


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

Hovering at 67.44 at today’s close.


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## 240BIGWINO (Jul 1, 2018)

Trying to decipher a bunch of people's opinions on the stock market who make $3 or less per hour is more tiring than amusing.


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## EdThatUberGuy (Feb 20, 2019)

1.5xorbust said:


> Hovering at 67.44 at today's close.


Wow... down about $10 since Friday.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

EdThatUberGuy said:


> It dropped to around 68 within a few days of opening. I think it's hovering in the mid seventies now.


It closed at $67.44 today.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

EdThatUberGuy said:


> It dropped to around 68 within a few days of opening. I think it's hovering in the mid seventies now.


LYFT closed at 67 yesterday.

The problem with LYFT, as well as UBER, is that there is really no distinction between the two in regards to the actual service, the ride. No reason for the consumer to pick one over the other except for the price factor.

They had a professor from NYU on CNBC yesterday, explained how everyone involved is a free agent- the drivers as well as the passengers and can move back and forth from one to another at will,and that makes it difficult to move to profitability. He agrees that it is great the way it reduced the price of car service for consumers like him- but he wouldn't invest.


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## Friendly Jack (Nov 17, 2015)

New low this morning. Trading around $65.


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## ftupelo (Mar 18, 2018)

Down to just above $62, do we see a five handle today?


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## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

Already down 30% from the opening high. Only 70% left to go.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

Below $60 in after hours trading. If Uber's value is approximately 4 times that of LYFT, and LYFT has a realistic value of $0.00, how much is Uber really worth?


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> Below $60 in after hours trading. If Uber's value is approximately 4 times that of LYFT, and LYFT has a realistic value of $0.00, how much is Uber really worth?


Uber is a much bigger enchilada on the plate coming up. The experience of the Lyft IPO might cause the bankers to delay the Uber IPO- which is good for the overall market. Uber will increase the supply for stocks on the market, and an increase in supply can cause a fall in prices


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## Roadmasta (Aug 4, 2017)

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> Below $60 in after hours trading. If Uber's value is approximately 4 times that of LYFT, and LYFT has a realistic value of $0.00, how much is Uber really worth?


4 x 0.00 = 0


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## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

Someone here said the other day something about short squeeze. No disrespect intended. You certainly never seen a short squeeze. 
Btw lyft trading at $59.78 after hours. Never try to catch a falling knife.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

The fall in LYFT today is being credited partly due to Uber announcing it will be seeking $10 Billion in its own pending IPO.

That would give Uber a market cap of almost $100 Billion. I just don't see it, but then, I'm not a visionary.


----------



## Drivincrazy (Feb 14, 2016)

I think Lyft could fall steeply right after Uber goes IPO. People think Uber is the Super Big Dog. Money may leave Lyft and go to Uber cuz Lyft is already sinking...flight to perceived safety.
At some point...20 or so, I would be tempted to buy about 5 shares...lol.


----------



## warsaw (Apr 8, 2017)

Drivincrazy said:


> I think Lyft could fall steeply right after Uber goes IPO. People think Uber is the Super Big Dog. Money may leave Lyft and go to Uber cuz Lyft is already sinking...flight to perceived safety.
> At some point...20 or so, I would be tempted to buy about 5 shares...lol.


Funny, that would be like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire below!!


----------



## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Drivincrazy said:


> I think Lyft could fall steeply right after Uber goes IPO. People think Uber is the Super Big Dog. Money may leave Lyft and go to Uber cuz Lyft is already sinking...flight to perceived safety.
> At some point...20 or so, I would be tempted to buy about 5 shares...lol.


I don't see where Uber is that safer- in fact I'd say its actually a lot riskier. Uber is in more countries, and left a lot of countries already, has Ubereats and so much more.

Lyft is more narrowly focused and has a better chance to find a way to profits.

Further, it isn't hard to switch from Uber to Lyft or vice versa, for either drivers or pax


----------



## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

I_Like_Spam said:


> I don't see where Uber is that safer- in fact I'd say its actually a lot riskier. Uber is in more countries, and left a lot of countries already, has Ubereats and so much more.
> 
> Lyft is more narrowly focused and has a better chance to find a way to profits.
> 
> Further, it isn't hard to switch from Uber to Lyft or vice versa, for either drivers or pax


The difference between Uber and Lyft is that Uber loses money 2.5 times faster than Lyft.

Why anyone would think that is a good thing is beyond me.


----------



## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Bob Reynolds said:


> The difference between Uber and Lyft is that Uber loses money 2.5 times faster than Lyft.
> 
> Why anyone would think that is a good thing is beyond me.


Uber has a much bigger market share of the ride sharing industry that investors believe is just in its infancy.

But even if they are right, that doesn't mean it will turn the corner and make a bundle on it. The problem that Uber and Lyft has is keeping the loyalty of passengers as well as drivers so that the Market Share is actually worth something


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

How about sharing with us the breakdown of the numbers of those 100 rides in 50 hours? 
My first thought is that it would be very difficult to get 100 rides in 50 hours since the average number I'm used to is 1.45 rides an hour.


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## dryverjohn (Jun 3, 2018)

Woohoo, below 60, keep dropping you pink slimy hair ball. I only hope that Uber will for once follow Lyft. We know Lyft has always been riding Uber's coat tails, now it's time for Uber to follow Lyft into the lowest rung of Dante's Inferno.


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## NCRTyler (Apr 1, 2019)

dryverjohn said:


> Woohoo, below 60, keep dropping you pink slimy hair ball. I only hope that Uber will for once follow Lyft. We know Lyft has always been riding Uber's coat tails, now it's time for Uber to follow Lyft into the lowest rung of Dante's Inferno.


we will see its hard to say how the market feels about the big bad brother


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## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

dryverjohn said:


> Woohoo, below 60, keep dropping you pink slimy hair ball. I only hope that Uber will for once follow Lyft. We know Lyft has always been riding Uber's coat tails, now it's time for Uber to follow Lyft into the lowest rung of Dante's Inferno.


Seems uber pricing IPO not aggressively. They need to pay off investors first.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

No Prisoners said:


> Seems uber pricing IPO not aggressively. They need to pay off investors first.


I think the valuation that Uber is being given of $90- $100 Billion is pretty aggressive. Southwest Air makes actual cash in the transportation sector, and they have a market cap of less than $30 Billion.


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## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

I_Like_Spam said:


> I think the valuation that Uber is being given of $90- $100 Billion is pretty aggressive. Southwest Air makes actual cash in the transportation sector, and they have a market cap of less than $30 Billion.


Uber's last round of investors came in at $70 billion valuation. It was expected to go public at around $120 billion. Let's see what it opens at.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

dryverjohn said:


> Woohoo, below 60, keep dropping you pink slimy hair ball. I only hope that Uber will for once follow Lyft. We know Lyft has always been riding Uber's coat tails, now it's time for Uber to follow Lyft into the lowest rung of Dante's Inferno.


Tell us how you really feel John.


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## dryverjohn (Jun 3, 2018)

Bob Reynolds said:


> Tell us how you really feel John.






 pictures are worth a thousand words, what is a video worth?


----------



## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

No Prisoners said:


> Uber's last round of investors came in at $70 billion valuation. It was expected to go public at around $120 billion. Let's see what it opens at.


I don't see the value here at all. Yes, Uber is worth money but not at those nosebleed levels.

The problem is how do they retain customers as well as drivers? They really don't have anything to make people go for Uber instead of Lyft, or instead of Grubhub on the Ubereats story. Retention is a problem they haven't figured out yet.

And what do they do if Amazon decides to move into this? Amazon has relations with all kinds of delivery drivers in their own vehicles too and a boatload of money.

Uber has a difficult road to profitability- particularly on a scale to justify the evaluation they are given.


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## NOXDriver (Aug 12, 2018)

"Lyft's revenues doubled in 2018 to reach $2.2 billion, according to the filing. That's up from $343.3 million in 2016 and $1.1 billion in 2017. But its losses also grew. The company lost $911.3 million in 2018, up from two years of steady losses of $682.8 million in 2016 and $688.3 million in 2017. "

Revenue of $2.2 billion and still LOST $900MM?

Day traders and short sellers rejoice! You ultimate pump-n-dump wet dream has arrived.

What is holy heck did they burn $3 BILLION dollars on? That's a lot of hookers and blow.


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## No Prisoners (Mar 21, 2019)

I_Like_Spam said:


> I don't see the value here at all. Yes, Uber is worth money but not at those nosebleed levels.
> 
> The problem is how do they retain customers as well as drivers? They really don't have anything to make people go for Uber instead of Lyft, or instead of Grubhub on the Ubereats story. Retention is a problem they haven't figured out yet.
> 
> ...


Your analysis probably one of the most rational I've read here. Wallstreet's valuation not based on profitability but on growth potential. However, neither company can illustrate a viable path to profitability. Their business model is intrinsically flawed as their income is based on fares, which would have to be unvaibly high to sustain reasonable driver compensation. In other words, both Uber and Lyft must take almost 100% of fares to break-even. 
Neither company once gone public can change their business model. However, there's a way to change their model which would allow for them to be hugely profitable without depending on fares. Actually, changing models would eliminate all arguments about classification of drivers and provide a 2% fee to cities. Under their current structure both companies will inevitably succumb legal and political pressures to eventually classify drivers as employees. Changing their model would prevent that.


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## NOXDriver (Aug 12, 2018)

No Prisoners said:


> Their business model is intrinsically flawed as their income is based on fares, which would have to be unvaibly high to sustain reasonable driver compensation.


lol wut?

When your main expense is commodity product like a driver, there is no need to worry about reasonable compensation. Lyft has lowered rates in a time of record employment and still manages to saturate the markets it serves.

They don't base their income on fares, but BOOKINGS. Sure, they take a larger % the longer the ride, but they make money on every ride, whereas a driver, with a poorly chosen vehicle, can easily lose money on a fare at Lyft rates. L


----------



## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

I_Like_Spam said:


> I don't see the value here at all. Yes, Uber is worth money but not at those nosebleed levels.
> 
> The problem is how do they retain customers as well as drivers? They really don't have anything to make people go for Uber instead of Lyft, or instead of Grubhub on the Ubereats story. Retention is a problem they haven't figured out yet.
> 
> ...


AMA AMA!

Laying in the weeds..... dam scary potential threat.


----------



## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

NOXDriver said:


> lol wut?
> 
> When your main expense is commodity product like a driver, there is no need to worry about reasonable compensation. Lyft has lowered rates in a time of record employment and still manages to saturate the markets it serves.
> 
> They don't base their income on fares, but BOOKINGS. Sure, they take a larger % the longer the ride, but they make money on every ride, whereas a driver, with a poorly chosen vehicle, can easily lose money on a fare at Lyft rates. L


I'm not 100% on Lyft having enough drivers to saturate at least the Orlando market. Everyday, I get pings 20-30 minutes away which I always turn down. Some of the same pings come in 3 or more times as the desperate riders and the desperate Lyft system tries to book the ride. They need to give the riders an option to pay for and bring a driver in from far away.

I was at Disney last month in the Hollywood studios area and I kept getting pings to the Universal Transportation and Pick Up area. Although that is an extreme example, there are far away pings every day.

If there were enough drivers then I would not get these far away pings.

If Lyft actually paid a reasonable mileage fee in order to drive to pick up one of these far away pings then I might be interested in taking them. However if I do take them under the current pay schedule then I am certain to lose money on those types of rides. You can end up driving 20-30 miles for a $5 fare. And then you often have to drive out of that area empty in order to get back to where the riders really are. Most drivers have figured this out. The new ones haven't.


----------



## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

Doing great. 70's, 60's, now 50's. By the time the market is hitting record highs we should be in the 40's. Hopefully we will be seeing some legal action by then.


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## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

Low for today $57.66. Long way from high of 88.60 just 2 weeks ago. Can the longs hold?


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## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

Oh but you've seen nothing yet bob. We have many new 52 week lows to hit over the coming days, weeks, months and years.


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## SEAL Team 5 (Dec 19, 2015)

EdThatUberGuy said:


> It dropped to around 68 within a few days of opening. I think it's hovering in the mid seventies now.


Not quite. It's under 60 and trickling downward everyday. Just wait for the quarterly earnings report due out in June. Hope there's a soft spot to land on.

NASDAQ: LYFT · April 12, 7:58 PM EDT
59.90
▼ 1.11 (1.83%)
After Hours59.85


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

I have too much cash burning a hole in my trading account and I want to mess with some 1 week LYFT contracts when the market opens on Monday. The question is - calls or puts? And what strike would you choose? I'll probably hit the $60 for the liquidity. The Apr 18 options chain and LYFT's performance is shown.

Up or down boys? Which way will it go this week? Let's show the ants how real bank is made!


----------



## comitatus1 (Mar 22, 2018)

The problem with Uber and Lyft is that their business model isn't scalable. I mean, to a small degree it is, because at some point the overhead number should stay constant while more and more drivers add to the bottom line, but that's just an incremental thing. They will never make money until autonomous vehicles become available....then shortly after that they will become an irrelevant middleman.


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## 240BIGWINO (Jul 1, 2018)

comitatus1 said:


> The problem with Uber and Lyft is that their business model isn't scalable. I mean, to a small degree it is, because at some point the overhead number should stay constant while more and more drivers add to the bottom line, but that's just an incremental thing. They will never make money until autonomous vehicles become available....then shortly after that they will become an irrelevant middleman.


I don't understand why people believe operating a fleet of SDCs would be cheaper for Uber than the arrangement they have today with drivers.


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## comitatus1 (Mar 22, 2018)

240BIGWINO said:


> I don't understand why people believe operating a fleet of SDCs would be cheaper for Uber than the arrangement they have today with drivers.


Because they haven't thought it through. If and when autonomous vehicles become available, people will be able directly rent them from rental companies on an hourly, half day, daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly basis. Companies like Uber and Lyft will become completely unneeded.


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## NOXDriver (Aug 12, 2018)

comitatus1 said:


> If and when autonomous vehicles become available


No, this will not happen. There has been billions put into autopilots and they still are not ready. Sure, there are some low speed trams, but they are pretty useless for ride share.

AI works in the lab, but real life is much more complicated. Take Boston Dynamics (they make autonomous robots) and while on a close course the AI is brilliant.. in real life it fall flat. B.D. was supposed to be the next 'mule' for the Army... 10 years later they are nowhere to be found.

So yeah, like Global Climate Change, AI and autonomous vehicles are vastly overstated/rated.


----------



## comitatus1 (Mar 22, 2018)

NOXDriver said:


> No, this will not happen. There has been billions put into autopilots and they still are not ready. Sure, there are some low speed trams, but they are pretty useless for ride share.
> 
> AI works in the lab, but real life is much more complicated. Take Boston Dynamics (they make autonomous robots) and while on a close course the AI is brilliant.. in real life it fall flat. B.D. was supposed to be the next 'mule' for the Army... 10 years later they are nowhere to be found.
> 
> So yeah, like Global Climate Change, AI and autonomous vehicles are vastly overstated/rated.


Putting your red herrings aside, autonomous vehicles will happen. I never said they would happen tomorrow, or the next day, or next week, or next month, or next year, or the next decade....but they will happen. It is then that Lyft and Uber go completely bankrupt.


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## 240BIGWINO (Jul 1, 2018)

comitatus1 said:


> Putting your red herrings aside, autonomous vehicles will happen. I never said they would happen tomorrow, or the next day, or next week, or next month, or next year, or the next decade....but they will happen. It is then that Lyft and Uber go completely bankrupt.


Uber and Lyft will be distant bankrupt memories by the time SDCs are seen in normal day to day life.


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## comitatus1 (Mar 22, 2018)

240BIGWINO said:


> Uber and Lyft will be distant bankrupt memories by the time SDCs are seen in normal day to day life.


People who are betting on Uber and Lyft as a means of securing transportation are analagous to people betting on horses just prior to the advent of automobiles.



comitatus1 said:


> People who are betting on Uber and Lyft as a means of securing transportation are analagous to people betting on horses just prior to the advent of automobiles.


Or betting on canals before the advent of railroads.

Or betting on steam power before the advent of diesel.

ok, I'm don.e


----------



## NOXDriver (Aug 12, 2018)

If your ENTIRE business plan relies on a tech that barely works in the lab and has killed a pedestrian in real world tests then you really need to re-examine things.

Right now investors are betting on growth and hoping that one day expenses will come down. Growth is useless unless, at some point, you grow big enough to cover expenses. How many BILLIONS will it take to replace the low wage driver with self driving cars? If self driving cars 'are a thing' then they will quickly become a commodity and it will just be another race to the bottom.

Say Uber does perfect self driving cars. So what. Now they have to run (or pay a 3rd party) all those cars..... AI, maintenance, etc etc. They could license it, but that just turns it into a commodity quicker, lowering its value. And what if a software glitch or lawsuit takes the fleet offline? 

Even if EVs are a thing, who will pay for charging stations?

I'd like to see any same projections that makes an Uber army of self driving cars profitable in 5 years.


----------



## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

UberAdrian said:


> I have too much cash burning a hole in my trading account and I want to mess with some 1 week LYFT contracts when the market opens on Monday. The question is - calls or puts? And what strike would you choose? I'll probably hit the $60 for the liquidity. The Apr 18 options chain and LYFT's performance is shown.
> 
> Up or down boys? Which way will it go this week? Let's show the ants how real bank is made!


You really want to gamble don't ya?

Do you really have enough data to be staking out positions like this?

There are plenty of seasoned stocks to play roulette with.

No?


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

BeansnRice said:


> You really want to gamble don't ya?
> 
> Do you really have enough data to be staking out positions like this?
> 
> ...


I'm in a gambling mood though and the volatility on this is delicious! I'm already sitting on positions in AAPL, TSLA, BA and QQQ and I'm holding a load of October puts on LYFT. But I still have a bunch of cash and I don't like cash! Cash that's sitting around isn't earning any income. I just want to gamble a little bit and doing it on LYFT will keep me tapped into the news cycle which will be handy when it comes time to make money on UBER!

I'm leaning towards down but 2 weeks ago it went up all week so who knows, this stock is wild.

So which way man?


----------



## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

I’m not analyzing stocks these days . My opinion on this is crap.

But Uber is going public just before Lyft announces its fourth quarter financials.
This is not a coincidence. They probably know Lyft’s numbers look bad and won’t help their road show if they wait.

No matter the volume of Lyft stock trading right now , the Uber IPO hype will drag it down.
Uber’s numbers should be better and the opening price will be lower.

Lyft’s troubles make Uber shine ....like a wet turd on the sidewalk glistening and steaming in the sun.

Good luck n have fun


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

BeansnRice said:


> I'm not analyzing stocks these days . My opinion on this is crap.
> 
> But Uber is going public just before Lyft announces its fourth quarter financials.
> This is not a coincidence. They probably know Lyft's numbers look bad and won't help their road show if they wait.
> ...


Last paragraph priceless, I'm over hear laughing my mfao!!!


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

I bought puts at 9:30 on the dot! I'm up 70% already hahaha too easy. I woke up early and saw which way the winds were blowing with the pre market action.

What a beauty! Those little upticks are the banks trying to prop it up and failing lol.


----------



## Taksomotor (Mar 19, 2019)

F-ing Lyft! There was a message in the app "More bonuses will be posted on Monday, April 15". So, Monday is today - not a single bonus posted, no quests, no CTBs, nothing! WTF? 

Now there is a new message "More bonuses will be posted on Monday, April 22". F-ing liars!


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Taksomotor said:


> F-ing Lyft! There was a message in the app "More bonuses will be posted on Monday, April 15". So, Monday is today - not a single bonus posted, no quests, no CTBs, nothing! WTF?
> 
> Now there is a new message "More bonuses will be posted on Monday, April 22". F-ing liars!


Haha they do that to me too. Just stay home and take your bonus out of their ass like me! I bought another load of puts for Apr 26. Let's see this pig roast!


----------



## Taxi Driver in Arizona (Mar 18, 2015)

Below $56 already this morning. It's sad when you can make more money shorting LYFT than you can driving for them.


----------



## Roadmasta (Aug 4, 2017)

Look out below....


----------



## Jo3030 (Jan 2, 2016)

Taksomotor said:


> F-ing Lyft! There was a message in the app "More bonuses will be posted on Monday, April 15". So, Monday is today - not a single bonus posted, no quests, no CTBs, nothing! WTF?
> 
> Now there is a new message "More bonuses will be posted on Monday, April 22". F-ing liars!


The ride is over, kids.


----------



## RideshareDog (Feb 25, 2019)

Okay can someone explain what it means for lyft for their stock to be at 56? Have they lost money?


----------



## Jo3030 (Jan 2, 2016)

RideshareDog said:


> Okay can someone explain what it means for lyft for their stock to be at 56? Have they lost money?


Have they ever made money?
They're doing what they do.


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## 240BIGWINO (Jul 1, 2018)

RideshareDog said:


> Okay can someone explain what it means for lyft for their stock to be at 56? Have they lost money?


Any of the drivers who took their bonus in stock lost money and F them they deserved to. Lyft as a company has never made a dollar of profit.


----------



## NOXDriver (Aug 12, 2018)

RideshareDog said:


> Okay can someone explain what it means for lyft for their stock to be at 56? Have they lost money?


Wow.. no offence but you really don't know how a stock works?

Basically no, Lyft has not lost anything. The people who paid a higher price for the stock, say $70, now have a stock that they can only sell at $56. So the person who bought the stock, IF THEY SELL IT, would lose $14. $70-$56=$14

Smart people have 'bet' that the stock price will go down and 'shorted' the stock. Those ppl are making money. Short selling is a different topic and they can also lose lots of money quick.


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

The ride is just beginning!

I had an absolute blast today with this pig of a stock. I am up several years pay on all my combined LYFT puts. I closed my shortest range one for a delicious +116% profit like a boss! Just wait till you guys see my October trade after I close it, it could be more than a lifetime of full time lyft driving lol.

I expect to make more tomorrow after some timely overnight downgrades. I'm probably not going to buy more though, I need more TSLA calls now. TSLA crazy cheap right now.


----------



## Jo3030 (Jan 2, 2016)

56.11 USD −3.78 (6.32%)


----------



## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Jo3030 said:


> 56.11 USD −3.78 (6.32%)


It was a wild ride all the way to the end! Note the classic death cross in the final moments. Absolutely textbook.

And now it's ticking up after market which is perfect, setting up for a huge morning dump.


----------



## Jo3030 (Jan 2, 2016)

I called this a penny stock.
I was being serious LOL


----------



## jaxbeachrides (May 27, 2015)

We've made great progress already.

Good to see the stock market doing for lyft exactly what uber / lyft do for its drivers, cut prices.


----------



## Fuzzyelvis (Dec 7, 2014)

NOXDriver said:


> No, this will not happen. There has been billions put into autopilots and they still are not ready. Sure, there are some low speed trams, but they are pretty useless for ride share.
> 
> AI works in the lab, but real life is much more complicated. Take Boston Dynamics (they make autonomous robots) and while on a close course the AI is brilliant.. in real life it fall flat. B.D. was supposed to be the next 'mule' for the Army... 10 years later they are nowhere to be found.
> 
> So yeah, like Global Climate Change, AI and autonomous vehicles are vastly overstated/rated.


----------



## SEAL Team 5 (Dec 19, 2015)

RideshareDog said:


> Have they lost money?


Stock pricing is basically speculation. You have to wait for their quarterly earnings report if you want to know their profit/loss. Usually out sometime in June. And yes, it has to be truthful (thank Enron for that one) and public knowledge.


----------



## 7Miles (Dec 17, 2014)

Lyft will be a fine, profitable company in 2049


----------



## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

UberAdrian said:


> I have too much cash burning a hole in my trading account and I want to mess with some 1 week LYFT contracts when the market opens on Monday. The question is - calls or puts? And what strike would you choose? I'll probably hit the $60 for the liquidity. The Apr 18 options chain and LYFT's performance is shown.
> 
> Up or down boys? Which way will it go this week? Let's show the ants how real bank is made!


I do some option and future trading on TOS (ThinkorSwim)'platform for many years now. One think I learned is that you need to decide for a direction. IPOs are the favorite trade vehicles for shortsellers and Lyft is no exception. I don't touch IPOs until the IV (implied Volatility) falls below 45-50 (now at 80) and if I do, I get one.contract of stocks, buy a put 3 to.5 points out of money and finance it in selling a call 3 to 5 points out.of money. Of course I trap the movement within a certain area but.if one of those put or call gives me good profit, I usually have two choices, take my profit minus commission and run or harness the profiting option in opening a spread.

I always use Acceleration bands in combination with William-PrcR. Or simpler, Bollinger bands with MACD. I always always, religiously keep an eye on IV which is like air in a balloon for options, especially those with little or no.intrinsic value.

That's me. I strongly recommend to you to consult your financial advisor. Trading options is extremely risky. Those people trading IPOs in big volumes have machines making thousands of trades in a second. They make their money off people like us. I'm sorry I don't mean to undermine your knowledge but please consult a professional before anything.

Good luck.


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## Juggalo9er (Dec 7, 2017)

RideshareDog said:


> Okay can someone explain what it means for lyft for their stock to be at 56? Have they lost money?


It means the company as percieved by investors is not worth as much as it was originally valued....



SEAL Team 5 said:


> Stock pricing is basically speculation. You have to wait for their quarterly earnings report if you want to know their profit/loss. Usually out sometime in June. And yes, it has to be truthful (thank Enron for that one) and public knowledge.


Betting it will show a loss
I'll bet my entire months salary before taxes
Around 8k
Any takers?
Please give me your money


----------



## RideshareDog (Feb 25, 2019)

Does lyft gain anything if the stock hovers around the 50s?


----------



## Bob Reynolds (Dec 20, 2014)

The market makers are trying to keep this thing propped up. There is a lot of downward pressure here. No profits. No dividends. It's going to be tough.


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Buy puts just before these events and you can become rich and quit driving!

Tesla Network announcement - Mon Apr 22
Lyft Q1 earnings - Tue May 7
Uber IPO - Thur May 9
Lockup Expiry - Mon Sep 2

The short float is at 80% and RSI at 15 so there will probably be a big bounce soon, stay out. Depending on the timing of the bounce, it could be a perfect storm.

Note the timing between earnings and Uber IPO. That's not a coincidence. Uber must have performed corporate espionage on LYFT and knows their numbers are trash so they scheduled it that way to distinguish themselves as the "better rideshare company". EZ money!!


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## UberAdrian (May 26, 2018)

Haha man you so crazy! Avoiding volatility and hedging your trades like that. I thrive on volatility! High IV is only bad for you if it starts going down, but if it goes up you win so I like it.

Now you need to stop making me laugh with this financial advisor stuff. I'm way better than the average advisor. Of course trading options is risky, that's why I do it! I don't only trade for the money, I also do it for the thrill. I love the game and you only live once! So it's risky..big deal! All of life is a gamble.

And is it really that risky when you're dealing with a ticker like LYFT? The company that doesn't understand it doesn't make business sense to abuse the backbone of your workforce so egregiously? The guys that go IPO with a statement like "we gonna lose a billion dollars a year+ for the next 20 years until we maybe go bankrupt, maybe not"? That's who I'm not supposed to buy all the puts I can afford on?

Haha! Easiest money of the decade. Look how the banks are shamelessly pumping and dumping all day long like it's going out of style!

My gains were flat today. I expect a huge flush tomorrow, maybe all the way down to $50. It'll bounce off 50 at some point.


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

The Motley Fool had an interesting negative article on LYFT recently. I don’t have the link.


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## Jo3030 (Jan 2, 2016)

1.5xorbust said:


> The Motley Fool had an interesting negative article on LYFT recently. I don't have the link.


https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/15/autonomous-vehicles-wont-save-uber-and-lyft.aspx 
or

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/15/why-aphria-spotify-and-lyft-slumped-today.aspx


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1117886463528427520


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## NOXDriver (Aug 12, 2018)

Juggalo9er said:


> It means the company as percieved by investors is not worth as much as it was originally valued....


How they can figure that Lyft is worth $56 still needs to be explained. They are nothing in the autonomous car segment and are the Kmart of the rideshare industry.

Or is anything tech related an Amazon like 10+ year trudge to profitability??

Seriously.. companies with hard assets are valued at less. Lyft is basically an advertising firm.


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## backstreets-trans (Aug 16, 2015)

Lyft didn't require early investors and the big banks to hold on to the stock after the IPO for any period of time. They are dumping this turd faster than a bad case of late night mexican food.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/04/16/cramer-on-why-lyft-shares-cratered-after-its-ipo.html

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/04/...s-says-lead-edge-capitals-mitchell-green.html


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## RideshareDog (Feb 25, 2019)

backstreets-trans said:


> Lyft didn't require early investors and the big banks to hold on to the stock after the IPO for any period of time. They are dumping this turd faster than a bad case of late night mexican food.
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/04/16/cramer-on-why-lyft-shares-cratered-after-its-ipo.html
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/04/...s-says-lead-edge-capitals-mitchell-green.html


Except it's going back up today.


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

RideshareDog said:


> Except it's going back up today.


Not sure I'd like to be on it over the weekend though. It's following the kind of pattern that will have it from 59 back to 54 tomorrow.

Seems to be just traders throwing it around?


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## Uber1111uber (Oct 21, 2017)

Jo3030 said:


> https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/15/autonomous-vehicles-wont-save-uber-and-lyft.aspx
> or
> 
> https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/15/why-aphria-spotify-and-lyft-slumped-today.aspx
> ...


Where do they get their info? It said that 75%-80% of the price of the ride goes to the driver... dont we all wish that was true


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## Jo3030 (Jan 2, 2016)

Uber1111uber said:


> Where do they get their info? It said that 75%-80% of the price of the ride goes to the driver... dont we all wish that was true


Straight from Uber and Lyft I bet.


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## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

Uber1111uber said:


> Where do they get their info? It said that 75%-80% of the price of the ride goes to the driver... dont we all wish that was true


This is the problem w these companies. 
They lie to everyone to get what they want.
Most people including the candy ahh so called "talent" get fooled everyday. In fact they are the easiest to con.
The people that actually do the worked know the real deal.
It's easy to see bs from the streets.
Smells so bad down here.
FAQ!


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## Bubsie (Oct 19, 2017)

jaxbeachrides said:


> We've made great progress already.
> 
> Good to see the stock market doing for lyft exactly what uber / lyft do for its drivers, cut prices.


Lower rates/stock price equals more opportunities.


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