# Has anyone ever figured out the surge algorithm?



## Brandon1 (Sep 28, 2014)

We all know surge is dictated by supply and demand - there will be more surge the less drivers and more requests that there are. I uber in an incredibly large "surge zone" in ventura county, and because I will never find myself outside the zone, I can use the passenger app to tell if it's about to surge or not simply based on the amount of online waiting cars in this zone.

I wonder what the surge *ratio of drivers to demand is *though. There's gotta be some sort of math formula, right? Anyone have some speculations?

My guess would be in a given zone, there has to be 3 more ride requests per 10 minutes then there are waiting ubers online. ex: light surge if 8 requests in 10 minutes, and only average of 4 drivers online in that same 10 minutes


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## Driverish (Apr 22, 2015)

Like Rubik cube?


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## elelegido (Sep 24, 2014)

I'm noticing that a lot of surges being shown on the driver app are not being shown as surges on the rider app. Example - yesterday morning I saw that one area of town was surging on the driver app at 2.0x. I checked the exact same spot in the rider app and no surge. I was waiting in that zone, coincidentally, and I did get a ping, at non-surge price of course.

I've also seen surge zones on the driver app where the driver's app is reporting a higher surge than the rider app I.e. driver app says 2.6x surge, rider app says 1.4x surge.

This isn't due to timing issues - the "fake" 2.0x surge above continued for around half an hour. The most likely explanation is obviously that Uber is using surge to move drivers around to where they are needed, but without having to charge pax surge rates.


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## Brandon1 (Sep 28, 2014)

elelegido said:


> I'm noticing that a lot of surges being shown on the driver app are not being shown as surges on the rider app. Example - yesterday morning I saw that one area of town was surging on the driver app at 2.0x. I checked the exact same spot in the rider app and no surge. I was waiting in that zone, coincidentally, and I did get a ping, at non-surge price of course.
> 
> I've also seen surge zones on the driver app where the driver's app is reporting a higher surge than the rider app I.e. driver app says 2.6x surge, rider app says 1.4x surge.
> 
> This isn't due to timing issues - the "fake" 2.0x surge above continued for around half an hour. The most likely explanation is obviously that Uber is using surge to move drivers around to where they are needed, but without having to charge pax surge rates.


Hmm while I have noticed a slight discrepancy myself, I have found that the passenger app is just about 1-2 minutes ahead of the driver app in terms of surge. If it says 2.0 for my on the driver app and 1.5 on the pax, usually the driver app will update to 1.5 within a minute or two


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## Brandon1 (Sep 28, 2014)

Driverish said:


> Like Rubik cube?


Not quite as advanced as a rubik's cube.

There is some math formula based on the amount of drivers and number of requests in a given time period, within each surge zone, that determines the color of the map (yellow orange or red), as well as the number of the surge multiplier. Just wondering if anyone has figured out what that formula is. I doubt its super complex


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## SirDavidsr (Apr 28, 2015)

Brandon1 said:


> We all know surge is dictated by supply and demand - there will be more surge the less drivers and more requests that there are. I uber in an incredibly large "surge zone" in ventura county, and because I will never find myself outside the zone, I can use the passenger app to tell if it's about to surge or not simply based on the amount of online waiting cars in this zone.
> 
> I wonder what the surge *ratio of drivers to demand is *though. There's gotta be some sort of math formula, right? Anyone have some speculations?
> 
> My guess would be in a given zone, there has to be 3 more ride requests per 10 minutes then there are waiting ubers online. ex: light surge if 8 requests in 10 minutes, and only average of 4 drivers online in that same 10 minutes


LOL! All I know is that during a surge there are no ride requests in my area. Then the pax are mad because Uber made them wait.


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## Walkersm (Apr 15, 2014)

And from early discussions of it by Uber themselves it has nothing to do with the number of requests that are being made. Rather the number of rider that have opened the app and are looking at it for a ride. Compared to the number of drivers that are online ready to accept trips in a given area. Small diffrence but it is how they are able to get the surge on before a request is made.


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## azndriver87 (Mar 23, 2015)

here's a trick. Get all the drivers to turn on their riders app and request rides all the same time. With over 1000 riders request, the surge will go over to 3x for a good 2 minutes.

cancel after 30 seconds. the surge will still go on. all the actual remain request, will be actual passenger, stuck with 3x surge


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## HERR_UBERMENSCH (Jun 3, 2016)

To understand the algorithm you must first realize that Surge is the opposite of what you believe it to be. Uber tells you that it is based on demand but experience tells me the opposite. By the time an area is surging the demand is gone. It is actually used to draw drivers away from the real demand and create surge somewhere else. Ever notice that when you get to a surge zone you either get nothing or you get a ping 10 minutes or more OUTSIDE the area under surge? That is because the demand that was there was created by moving drivers to another area thus creating a shortage. In this way Uber can keep the surge rolling and maximize their profit. It is not in Uber's best interest to let surge end, they make money on surge just like we do. How do you think they were able to lower rates so much?

Obviously it isn't working but we are all beta testers for the technology company known as Uber.


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## DriverX (Aug 5, 2015)

there isn't one. travis and his clones have there hand on the dial in each market. There's no way in hell X shouldn't have surged over 1.8x after the all star game ended. It took a half hour after the game before any surge at all, lasted 5 minutes peaked at 1.8 and nothing. if 1% called an uber that'd be like 500 requests there were no where near that many x's available and they were blinking out as soon as they came on line. I passed on 3 sub 1.7x shorties, then hit lyft for a ride 50% to PB. finished the night with the final hour guarantee single ride. I wouldn't have been there if I hadn't had a ride take me down there earlier. what a joke. Petco is a waste of time, there needs to be concurrent events in the area for petco to have an impact especially when they obviously implemented surge control for the aLLSTARS. F that! never again. I will turn around and deadmile back next time i get dragged down there.


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## FAC (Mar 27, 2016)

I posted something in the news section a while back. It was an NPR interview with Ubers head of economic research. He goes into the algorithm on a high level.

https://uberpeople.net/threads/this-is-your-brain-on-uber.88581/#post-1235992


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## Uber SUCKS for drivers! (Jan 1, 2015)

Brandon1 said:


> Hmm while I have noticed a slight discrepancy myself, I have found that the passenger app is just about 1-2 minutes ahead of the driver app in terms of surge. If it says 2.0 for my on the driver app and 1.5 on the pax, usually the driver app will update to 1.5 within a minute or two


Yup, the rider app is current/real time, the driver surge/heat map lags behind a couple minutes. I always watch both, you can tell if the surge is really building or fading. I will only take a surge ride, if I see the rider app go under 1.8 I will immediately go off line, even though the driver app may still show 2.7.


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