# Uber Lyft business model, your time is up



## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

When your business model does not allow you to even try to keep your best employees, your business model sucks, and you suck.

Uber and Lyft have only been able to keep the competition at bay for the last two years (since they reduced fares) by losing billions of dollars. But why would any company knowingly operate a business model that will lose billions of dollars a year? Three words: self driving cars.

If not for self driving cars being just around the corner, a competitor would have already bought thousands of entry level Mercedes at fleet prices and offered them to drivers at a substantial discount. Drivers would have to drive x amount of hours or they lose the discount. Drivers would also have to replace their cars every three years and the minimum fare for the pax would be 15 bucks.

Ok, so why doesn't someone do it? Um, I just told you: self driving cars. There's no future in rideshare. But make no mistake, Uber and Lyft's business model of losing billions now to keep the competition at bay is very risky. Google Waymo and GM Cruise are going to have the self driving taxi market to themselves years before Uber and Lyft are able to operate self driving taxis, if ever.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ColorfulEasygoingLark-max-1mb.gif


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Uber and Lyft will partner with auto companies to provide the fleet.

Correction, Lyft already has.

No future in rideshare? The entire future will be SDC TNC and market share is very valuable.

By the way, if they wanted to be profitable, they could be tomorrow. They don't want profitability, they want market share.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

no they could not. they already have market share and it's slipping to competition.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> Uber and Lyft will partner with auto companies to provide the fleet.
> 
> Correction, Lyft already has.
> 
> ...


Yes, Lyft has partnered with GM but GM already has Cruise. It's all very incestuous at this point. There is no loyalty between any of these companies, so if you can fill a particular need at this point in time they'll partner with you. When you're no longer needed, you get tossed aside.

No future in human driven rideshare. I don't consider SDC TNC's to be rideshare, but a self driving taxi service. Market share is valuable but how much market share will remain in 2 to 3 years after Waymo and GM have had the market to themselves for 2 to 3 years.

I disagree. The current rideshare market is distorted due to the promise of self driving cars. The only thing keeping new rideshare companies from entering the market is the knowledge Uber and Lyft are willing to lose billions to hold onto market share. If Uber and Lyft raised prices to become profitable, they would have tons of competition and the race to the bottom would continue.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> When your business model does not allow you to even try to keep your best employees, your business model sucks, and you suck.
> 
> Uber and Lyft have only been able to keep the competition at bay for the last two years (since they reduced fares) by losing billions of dollars. But why would any company knowingly operate a business model that will lose billions of dollars a year? Three words: self driving cars.
> 
> ...


Bro, the whole reason why Uber is hyping up self driving cars is to con more suckers, I mean investors, into forking over more money and/or keeping the current investors from losing their minds.

SDCs won't realistically be viable for level 5 for at least 10 years probably more. But the investors don't know that. They believe the hype.

And you're helping the hype! I hope you're being paid well.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Bro, the whole reason why Uber is hyping up self driving cars is to con more suckers, I mean investors, into forking over more money and/or keeping the current investors from losing their minds.
> 
> SDCs won't realistically be viable for level 5 for at least 10 years probably more. But the investors don't know that. They believe the hype.
> 
> And you're helping the hype! I hope you're being paid well.


Please explain to the class the difference between levels 4 and 5


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> Please explain to the class the difference between levels 4 and 5


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Please explain to the class the difference between levels 4 and 5


The point where you can walk to any corner and hail a SDC taxi just like you can hail an Uber today is the point at which autonomous cars are at level 5.

Level 4, where they are at now, is still considered the final "test phase".

You constantly claim that level 5 is "weeks away" from today.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> The point where you can walk to any corner and hail a SDC taxi just like you can hail an Uber today is the point at which autonomous cars are at level 5.
> 
> Level 4, where they are at now, is still considered the final "test phase".
> 
> You constantly claim that level 5 is "weeks away" from today.


Incorrect. Level 5 means it can drive anywhere, even places that have not been 3D mapped, like driving thru the desert from LA to Vegas. Level four is all society will ever need. Waymo has been driving level 4 since mid October.






You can continue to do this:






Thing is, reality doesn't care.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Incorrect. Level 5 means it can drive anywhere, even places that have not been 3D mapped, like driving thru the desert from LA to Vegas. Level four is all society will ever need. Waymo has been driving level 4 since mid October.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is a typical (typically bad!) debate tactic- find one tiny nit-picky thing wrong and in so doing try to throw out the entire argument.

Nice try

So what, I don't know exactly what level 5 is. But I do now, so thanks. Anyway you're the one getting paid by Waymo not me.

Let me reframe the conversation:

You believe that within a "few weeks from today" (insane as it sounds when you say it out loud) the public is going to flock to the Waymo SDC taxi service in the cities that it is in (Phoenix and maybe Atlanta) and ridership will challenge if not completely eclipse Uber/Lyft ridership in those cities.

My belief is that it will take 10 years or more to get to that point due to a whole bunch of reasons and maybe even longer and maybe never at all.

My opinion this entire time is that a SDC taxi service will be like the Segway- sure it's easily available, but no one really uses it. And, at the time of its release the Segway was also hyped to become "huge".

I drew a line in the sand and gave a date: late April, 2018. You claimed these "big things" would happen with Waymo in just "a few weeks" and I did you one better- i put a TWELVE week timetable on the board and that brings us to late April of this year (about 2.5 months from now)

If by that date Waymo is still showing tiny ridership in the cities it's in then I'm right. If by some miracle there's an SDC revolution as you claim, then you're right.

I won't make any predictions or call you any names. I'll just let the results speak for themselves when the time comes.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> This is a typical (typically bad!) debate tactic- find one tiny nit-picky thing wrong and in so doing try to throw out the entire argument.
> 
> Nice try
> 
> ...


With the world's first fleet of fully self-driving vehicles on the road, we've moved from research and development to operations and deployment," said John Krafcik, CEO of Waymo.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/way...tml?view=story&$DEVICE$=native-android-mobile

They'll launch their commercial self driving taxi service any day now. The Uber trial delay may have set the launch date back a few weeks, but we're day to day now.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> With the world's first fleet of fully self-driving vehicles on the road, we've moved from research and development to operations and deployment," said John Krafcik, CEO of Waymo.
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/waymo-orders-thousands-of-pacifica-minivans-in-push-to-open-ride-hailing-service.html?view=story&$DEVICE$=native-android-mobile
> 
> They'll launch their commercial self driving taxi service any day now. The Uber trial delay may have set the launch date back a few weeks, but we're day to day now.


Blah blah blah blah whatever

It's put up or shut up come April 30

Mic drop


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Blah blah blah blah whatever
> 
> It's put up or shut up come April 30
> 
> Mic drop


Google settles lawsuit with Uber. Google could launch commercial self driving taxi service any minute now.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> When your business model does not allow you to even try to keep your best employees, your business model sucks, and you suck.
> 
> Uber and Lyft have only been able to keep the competition at bay for the last two years (since they reduced fares) by losing billions of dollars. But why would any company knowingly operate a business model that will lose billions of dollars a year? Three words: self driving cars.
> 
> ...


Uber did that.
With leasing.
It FAILED.

MISERABLY.

BECAUSE UBER BUSINESS MODEL IS UNSUSTAINABLE !

Inoperable without driver subsidy !

I can NOT AFFORD TO SUBSIDISE UBER.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Google settles lawsuit with Uber. Google could launch commercial self driving taxi service any minute now.


April 30 buddy

No need to speak of this further until then

Just to recap- according to you, by April 30 we will absolutely see the public flocking to use the SDC taxi service(s) in whatever market(s) they are in. Correct? That's what you are saying?


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> April 30 buddy
> 
> No need to speak of this further until then
> 
> Just to recap- according to you, by April 30 we will absolutely see the public flocking to use the SDC taxi service(s) in whatever market(s) they are in. Correct? That's what you are saying?


Waymo will not be able to meet demand. There will be far more demand for seats in Waymo self driving cars than Waymo can provide.


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## mindthelines (Jan 2, 2017)

Uber proved they can't run a rental/lease fleet. Waymo has no fleet management experience what so ever. But the world is over...


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

mindthelines said:


> Uber proved they can't run a rental/lease fleet. Waymo has no fleet management experience what so ever. But the world is over...


That's why Waymo contracted with Avis to run the fleet.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

tomatopaste said:


> When your business model does not allow you to even try to keep your best employees, your business model sucks, and you suck.
> 
> Uber and Lyft have only been able to keep the competition at bay for the last two years (since they reduced fares) by losing billions of dollars. But why would any company knowingly operate a business model that will lose billions of dollars a year? Three words: self driving cars.
> 
> ...


Yeah, "just around the corner" I think the horseless carriage guys said something similar, but in fact, it took them 23 years to be "just around the corner".


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> Yeah, "just around the corner" I think the horseless carriage guys said something similar, but in fact, it took them 23 years to be "just around the corner".


Plenty of Horse & Carriages in my market.
( more mules).
Street cars.
Steam boats.
Pedi cabs.

I would actually enjoy running horse & buggy. 
And telling embellished stories.


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