# Surge - Figured Out?



## HERR_UBERMENSCH (Jun 3, 2016)

So I think I may have solved the mystery of the Surge. It appears to me that it is not based on actual rider demand but hypothetical rider demand. I came to this conclusion by watching both the rider and partner apps. The map showing surge on the partner app seems to be associated with the wait time shown on the rider app. If the wait time in a particular area for a hypothetical rider goes up to a certain amount then that area surges on the partner app. It doesn't mean there are actual riders in that area, just that there aren't enough drivers to meet hypothetical demand based on past rider history in that area. Could explain why when we drive to an area that is surging we end up with nothing. There never really were any riders, the system is just redistributing the drivers so the whole area has coverage.

So what happens when a major metric like rider demand suddenly drops in an area due to say Summer break as is the case in many college towns. It will take some time for the system to recalculate demand for those areas. In the mean time it still assumes the regular demand and surges that area accordingly, riders or no riders. This sends drivers on a wild goose chase to the surging area and pisses off the remaining riders stuck in the imaginary surge.

There also seems to be a number of cars versus riders component, again, probably based on hypothetical rider demand rather than real. Seems higher demand areas surge when the number of drivers gets below a certain point.

Essentially Uber has figured out how to herd cats, with a juicy mouse called Surge.


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## uberist (Jul 14, 2016)

When a pax opens the app it connects with the server it is counted as a possible ride, if more pax open the app then there are drivers online in the area a surge may start.

If a rider Really needs a ride they request and a driver will get a ping, pax may wait or decide to drive based on price or wait time or combo of both.

The question lately is whether uber has changed the algorithms to lessen the appearance of a surge or to end it when the see the "CATS" start moving toward the mouse.
and they now note your location even off line.

I have been blocks from a surge and drove to i,t more times then not as soon as you hit the edge, that area drops off of surge around you.


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## Uber SUCKS for drivers! (Jan 1, 2015)

HERR_UBERMENSCH said:


> So I think I may have solved the mystery of the Surge. It appears to me that it is not based on actual rider demand but hypothetical rider demand. I came to this conclusion by watching both the rider and partner apps. The map showing surge on the partner app seems to be associated with the wait time shown on the rider app. If the wait time in a particular area for a hypothetical rider goes up to a certain amount then that area surges on the partner app. It doesn't mean there are actual riders in that area, just that there aren't enough drivers to meet hypothetical demand based on past rider history in that area. Could explain why when we drive to an area that is surging we end up with nothing. There never really were any riders, the system is just redistributing the drivers so the whole area has coverage.
> 
> So what happens when a major metric like rider demand suddenly drops in an area due to say Summer break as is the case in many college towns. It will take some time for the system to recalculate demand for those areas. In the mean time it still assumes the regular demand and surges that area accordingly, riders or no riders. This sends drivers on a wild goose chase to the surging area and pisses off the remaining riders stuck in the imaginary surge.
> 
> ...


Completely wrong, but very creative thinking! LOL


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## HERR_UBERMENSCH (Jun 3, 2016)

Uber SUCKS for drivers! said:


> Completely wrong, but very creative thinking! LOL


Have you seen my other theory about anti-surge?

https://uberpeople.net/threads/has-anyone-ever-figured-out-the-surge-algorithm.19898/


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## Ringo (Jul 2, 2016)

I think your getting close, data is everything for uber and lyft and having plenty of cats/cars available for a suspected increase of demand is what they want for the eventual SDC. Google maps is not even close to supplying the necessary information look how many problems we have with it, us drivers are scouring every inch of roadway for the future.


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## Lance A (Aug 13, 2016)

HERR_UBERMENSCH said:


> There never really were any riders, the system is just redistributing the drivers so the whole area has coverage.
> 
> ......
> 
> Essentially Uber has figured out how to herd cats, with a juicy mouse called Surge.


Hah... totally clever if so. Brilliant I would say... if so


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## Lance A (Aug 13, 2016)

uberist said:


> When a pax opens the app it connects with the server it is counted as a possible ride, if more pax open the app then there are drivers online in the area a surge may start.
> 
> If a rider Really needs a ride they request and a driver will get a ping, pax may wait or decide to drive based on price or wait time or combo of both.
> 
> ...


This sounds right. If I were developing a surge type of algorithm, I would start with this concept.


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## Louisvilleuberguy (Aug 3, 2016)

Honestly the only surge around here that you can actually get good income from is at closing time and then it's the sloppy drunks who won't remember there was a surge and then give you a bad rating. I don't even consider surge when. I'm driving. Because vast majority of people won't pay it and they know here if they just refresh a few times and wait no more than 5 minutes it will disappear so unless it's an emergency or your not paying attention you don't really need to pay it. I have some surge rides but they are normally the minimum fair surge which doesn't amount to much anyway


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