# We're approaching the beginning of the end of car sales.



## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

"I look at this and say I want to be part of it, and I want AutoNation to be part of it. When I look at the future of mobility, it will revolve around sharing. We think we can play a vital role in that," he told analysts, whose seemed intrigued by the deal.
Why would the CEO of the largest car dealership get in bed with a company that's going to put them out of business? Answer: because he has no other choice. Companies that used to make typewriters stopped making typewriters and switched to making keyboards. Why? Because making typewriters was no longer an option. Ya Ya, I know, it won't happen overnight, but AutoNation is telling you, it's starting.

http://staugustine.com/business/2017-11-04/google-partners-self-driving-car-program


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## MHR (Jul 23, 2017)

Who is AutoNation? Never heard of them.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

They are the largest car dealership in America.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AutoNation


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

Personally. I am greedy. I like having a car all to myself. On demand mobility works for other people, but I like to have MY OWN wheels, with my tools and my winter survival kit available exactly when I need and want it. 

I like being able to go to multiple stores, buy what I need or want, and leave it in the car when I go to the next location. I will gladly pay more for that convenience.

YMMV.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

WeirdBob said:


> Personally. I am greedy. I like having a car all to myself. On demand mobility works for other people, but I like to have MY OWN wheels, with my tools and my winter survival kit available exactly when I need and want it.
> 
> I like being able to go to multiple stores, buy what I need or want, and leave it in the car when I go to the next location. I will gladly pay more for that convenience.
> 
> YMMV.


All valid concerns, wants, and desires. The self driving taxi companies will have to earn your business. In the end though, I think they're even going to suck YOU in, Bob. It's going to be a superior product to the way we move around today.

What if your commute to work looked like this instead of stuck behind the wheel in traffic? http://www.beckerautodesign.com/esv/quote/checklist-esv/3.jpg
Within five years the two car family is history.

Within five years no car will be sold that doesn't have self driving capabilities.

There will be all kinds of self driving taxi services available. You could sign up for a Ford F150 only, taxi service. A high end 100k Mercedes only, taxi service. If a Mercedes can't get to you within 5 minutes, they send you a Chrysler Pacifica minivan and it's free.

You won't go to Walmart, Walmart will come to you.

If you need a yard of sand, the yard of sand will come to you. You won't NEED a truck anymore.

Pool could actually work with self driving cars. What if the Chrysler minivan had six doors and each seat were it's own separate compartment. Divided like a limo is divided between the driver and the back seat, but also divided down the middle. Your compartment is sound proof and no one can see in. It's like being in your living room. Traffic jams become a thing of the past, so even dropping off six pool pax, you still arrive home faster. And you just took 5 cars off the road during rush hour traffic. It's not even really pool anymore. Your car shows up, you get in your private room, oblivious to anything happening outside your cocoon. You watch tv, sleep, work, surf the net, until a voice comes on saying, arriving in 2 minutes.
https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims3/G...utoblog.com/media/2011/09/six-door-raptor.jpg


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## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> All valid concerns, wants, and desires. The self driving taxi companies will have to earn your business. In the end though, I think they're even going to suck YOU in, Bob. It's going to be a superior product to the way we move around today.
> 
> What if your commute to work looked like this instead of stuck behind the wheel in traffic? http://www.beckerautodesign.com/esv/quote/checklist-esv/3.jpg
> Within five years the two car family is history.
> ...


five years is a HUGE stretch.

more like fifteen.

my old coworker recently decided to buy an used car because the monthly pass was going upwards near $100/month. at that point, he reasoned, he might as well pay for a car used, and have the *convenience and freedom to go where he wants.
*
you obviously never had a start up and don't realize the shipping cost is enormous.

Walmart can afford to do free shipping because they buy in bulk and so their cost of goods is lowered so much that the cost of shipping placed in (also purchased in bulk) STILL doesn't put a dent in their profits if they were to undercut their competitors by a few percentage. and a few percentage is all you need to have people go crazy with shopping because it's so "cheap".

so the situations you're describing is a far fetch.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

sellkatsell44 said:


> five years is a HUGE stretch.
> 
> more like fifteen.
> 
> ...


I'm not sure what you're trying to say, but it doesn't sound like it would be of much consequence either way.



sellkatsell44 said:


> five years is a HUGE stretch.
> 
> more like fifteen.
> 
> ...


Have you ever heard of Amazon Prime? Are you familiar with the economies of scale you can achieve when you have an automated warehouse vs a storefront as with current Walmarts?


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## sellkatsell44 (Oct 25, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> I not sure what you're trying to say, but it doesn't sound like it would be of much consequence either way.
> 
> Have you ever heard of Amazon Prime? Are familiar with the economies of scale you can achieve when you have an automated warehouse vs a storefront as with current Walmarts?


Duh, I subscribe to amazon prime so yes. Walmart isn't on the same level but it certainly is in league with amazon. The fact that you state some of the automation is going to happen in five years discredits you because the infrastructure isn't there to support it in five years. Maybe fifteen. And again. You're not thinking about all the other established businesses as well as start ups that can't quite compete on Amazon's level yet. And you haven't even addressed the human factor in all of this.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

sellkatsell44 said:


> Duh, I subscribe to amazon prime so yes. Walmart isn't on the same level but it certainly is in league with amazon. The fact that you state some of the automation is going to happen in five years discredits you because the infrastructure isn't there to support it in five years. Maybe fifteen. And again. You're not thinking about all the other established businesses as well as start ups that can't quite compete on Amazon's level yet. And you haven't even addressed the human factor in all of this.


The fact that you state it can't happen due to lack of infrastructure shows facts are not that important to you.

_"You're not thinking about all the other established businesses as well as start ups that can't quite compete on Amazon's level yet. And you haven't even addressed the human factor in all of this"_ - Um, Amazon has, they're going to crush them. This is the real world, you either keep up or you get run over.



sellkatsell44 said:


> You're not thinking about all the other established businesses as well as start ups that can't quite compete on Amazon's level yet. And you haven't even addressed the human factor in all of this.


When Uber undercuts taxi companies it's ok because you get a cut of it, but when Waymo undercuts Uber, WHOA! WHOA! WHOA!, then it's time to get government involved. Now it's your ox being gored and that crosses a line.


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

tomatopaste said:


> You won't go to Walmart, Walmart will come to you.


OK, I am a bit of a weirdo for the 21st Century. Most of the time I like going to the store, picking out what I like (especially food - I want to control the quality of the produce and search for the latest expiration dates that I can find). I like saying hello, and sometimes even flirting, with the cashiers. Delivery has its place, but if I can buy local retail, even if it is a big megacompany like WalMart, I would rather do that.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

WeirdBob said:


> OK, I am a bit of a weirdo for the 21st Century. Most of the time I like going to the store, picking out what I like (especially food - I want to control the quality of the produce and search for the latest expiration dates that I can find). I like saying hello, and sometimes even flirting, with the cashiers. Delivery has its place, but if I can buy local retail, even if it is a big megacompany like WalMart, I would rather do that.


Nobody's that weird, Bob. Yes, people like to shop and will continue to shop, but it will be the exception, not the rule. Even for you the opportunity costs will end up being too high in real life. Only on Uber People will you stick to your guns. Most shopping you'll do online and have it delivered by drone or SDC. The money you save you'll spend on hookers and Johnny Walker Black.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

WeirdBob said:


> Personally. I am greedy. I like having a car all to myself. On demand mobility works for other people, but I like to have MY OWN wheels, with my tools and my winter survival kit available exactly when I need and want it.
> 
> I like being able to go to multiple stores, buy what I need or want, and leave it in the car when I go to the next location. I will gladly pay more for that convenience.
> 
> YMMV.


Exactly. I like having my car with my shit and at a cleanliness level in comfortable with. If they think everyone is just going to give up ownership and share they're more autistic than previously thought


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> Exactly. I like having my car with my shit and at a cleanliness level in comfortable with. If they think everyone is just going to give up ownership and share they're more autistic than previously thought


"Ain't no way I'm giving up my trusty horse for one of those newfangled automobile contraptions. Those damn things go like 10 miles an hour, what if it hits a tree?"


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> Exactly. I like having my car with my shit and at a cleanliness level in comfortable with. If they think everyone is just going to give up ownership and share they're more autistic than previously thought


The heynowmobile
http://www.inspiringwomen.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Messy-car.jpg


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> Exactly. I like having my car with my shit and at a cleanliness level in comfortable with. If they think everyone is just going to give up ownership and share they're more autistic than previously thought


Here is a simple answer to the bullshit - Millennials embrace cars, defying predictions of sales implosion

Uneducated Buffoons are trolling with manure on their face.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> Here is a simple answer to the bullshit - Millennials embrace cars, defying predictions of sales implosion
> 
> Uneducated Buffoons are trolling with manure on their face.


Jockey always manages to find the dumbest article of the day. Check back with us in a year and see how millennials feel about car ownership.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> Here is a simple answer to the bullshit - Millennials embrace cars, defying predictions of sales implosion
> 
> Uneducated Buffoons are trolling with manure on their face.


"The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module." - Bob Lutz, the ultimate car guy.

http://www.autonews.com/article/201...kingNews+(Automotive+News+Breaking+News+Feed)


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

So tomato tell me what these millions and millions and millions of people across the world are going to do who love sports cars and driving them ? Will Ferrari BMW Mercedes and Porsche all go out of business ? How will these people get to tracks if they want to take it racing ? 

What about people who love motorcycles ?

I know autistic millennial's like you would love to just sit in a car and stare at a screen until the end of time but millions of normal people don't want to live their lives like that. Do you really think that you are going to restrict the freedom of mobility of millions and millions of people for your little science-fiction fantasy? 

It's so silly to even think about


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> So tomato tell me what these millions and millions and millions of people across the world are going to do who love sports cars and driving them ? Will Ferrari BMW Mercedes and Porsche all go out of business ? How will these people get to tracks if they want to take it racing ?
> 
> What about people who love motorcycles ?
> 
> ...


I'm not the one that wrote the article, Bob Lutz, the ultimate car guy, wrote the article. Don't you think it would be best to ask Bob Lutz?

_Heynow:
tell me what these millions and millions and millions of people across the world are going to do who love sports cars and driving them? Will Ferrari BMW Mercedes and Porsche all go out of business ? _

Bob Lutz: 
These modules won't be branded Chevrolet, Ford or Toyota. They'll be branded Uber or Lyft or who-ever else is competing in the market.

The manufacturers of the modules will be much like Nokia - basically building handsets. But that's not where the value is going to be in the future. The value is going to be captured by the companies with the fully autonomous fleets.

But the performance will be the same for all because nobody will be passing anybody else on the highway. That is the death knell for companies such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. That kind of performance is not going to count anymore.

_Heynow: 
What about people who love motorcycles ?

I know autistic millennial's like you would love to just sit in a car and stare at a screen until the end of time but millions of normal people don't want to live their lives like that. Do you really think that you are going to restrict the freedom of mobility of millions and millions of people for your little science-fiction fantasy? _

Bob Lutz: 
Automotive sport - using the cars for fun - will survive, just not on public highways. It will survive in country clubs such as Monticello in New York and Autobahn in Joliet, Ill. It will be the well-to-do, to the amazement of all their friends, who still know how to drive and who will teach their kids how to drive. It is going to be an elitist thing, though there might be public tracks, like public golf courses, where you sign up for a certain car and you go over and have fun for a few hours.

And like racehorse breeders, there will be manufacturers of race cars and sports cars and off-road vehicles. But it will be a cottage industry.

Yes, there will be dealers for this, but they will be few and far between. People will be unable to drive the car to the dealership, so dealers will probably all be on these motorsports and off-road dude ranches. It is there where people will be able to buy the car, drive it, get it serviced and get it repainted. In the early days, those tracks may be relatively numerous, but they will decline over time.

Don't hate the Tomato. Hate Bob Lutz.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

Once again the autist misses the humanity.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> Once again the autist misses the humanity.


Please direct all hate to Bob Lutz. Tomato is just the messenger. Thank you.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

WeirdBob said:


> OK, I am a bit of a weirdo for the 21st Century. Most of the time I like going to the store, picking out what I like (especially food - I want to control the quality of the produce and search for the latest expiration dates that I can find). I like saying hello, and sometimes even flirting, with the cashiers. Delivery has its place, but if I can buy local retail, even if it is a big megacompany like WalMart, I would rather do that.


Drones will take care of small deliveries within a few years - take a lot of those pesky Bike deliverers off the roads!


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

Sydney Uber said:


> Drones will take care of small deliveries within a few years - take a lot of those pesky Bike deliverers off the roads!


Good! Package theft will be even easier and only require a BB gun!


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> Here is a simple answer to the bullshit - Millennials embrace cars, defying predictions of sales implosion
> 
> Uneducated Buffoons are trolling with manure on their face.


You still have a little mierda on your chin.






No, on the other side.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

Woah they made a car that can drive around on sparsely populated suburban streets with fantastic markings and perfect weather ! I'm blown away by this amazing achievement !


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> You still have a little mierda on your chin.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Child troll, do you know what Concorde was? Implemented commercially ended up as another humongous failure. Take a good look at your cartoons - this is how the self driving cars ending starts!

Learn how to drive, follow the rules, stop at every single red light or stop sign and yield to pedestrians. I was ready yo say "use your common sense" but you have none.

Who laughs the last laughs the best!


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

heynow321 said:


> Good! Package theft will be even easier and only require a BB gun!


With 360deg vision, digital imagery streamed back to a security firm, and tagged packages it won't be long after those thefts start that there would be some well-publicised arrests.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> Child troll, do you know what Concorde was? Implemented commercially ended up as another humongous failure. Take a good look at your cartoons - this is how the self driving cars ending starts!
> 
> Learn how to drive, follow the rules, stop at every single red light or stop sign and yield to pedestrians. I was ready yo say "use your common sense" but you have none.
> 
> Who laughs the last laughs the best!


However you don't mind if we laugh at you in the meantime, right?


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

heynow321 said:


> Woah they made a car that can drive around on sparsely populated suburban streets with fantastic markings and perfect weather ! I'm blown away by this amazing achievement !


I've seen some human drivers challenged by conditions shown on the Waymo video!

C'mon! I know you're part of the majority of people that said they wouldn't ride in a driverless car, but give it a few years. The emerging youngster consumers who want to be left alone to play on their digital devices, "connecting" with friends via social media without some driver busting into their "chats".



tomatopaste said:


> However you don't mind if we laugh at you in the meantime, right?


Thank God I'm an enlightened Luddite!


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

Sydney Uber said:


> With 360deg vision, digital imagery streamed back to a security firm, and tagged packages it won't be long after those thefts start that there would be some well-publicised arrests.


Send Officer ED-209. That will get their attention.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

WeirdBob said:


> Send Officer ED-209. That will get their attention.


Loved that movie!!


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> Child troll, do you know what Concorde was? Implemented commercially ended up as another humongous failure.


I'm going to let you figure out why that's a silly argument all on your own. If you still haven't figured it out in a week, I'll be willing to help you. I'm not always going to be here to give you the answers.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

Sydney Uber said:


> With 360deg vision, digital imagery streamed back to a security firm, and tagged packages it won't be long after those thefts start that there would be some well-publicised arrests.


that's rich. All of those "defenses "will be extremely easy to bypass .

hey I heard in retail stores put these little tags on the merchandise that set off alarms if you try to steal if you try to steal them ! Last I heard retail firms had no problems with theft last I heard retail firms had no problems with that whatsoever whatsoever!

Try again fanboy


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

heynow321 said:


> that's rich. All of those "defenses "will be extremely easy to bypass .
> 
> hey I heard in retail stores put these little tags on the merchandise that set off alarms if you try to steal if you try to steal them ! Last I heard retail firms had no problems with theft last I heard retail firms had no problems with that whatsoever whatsoever!
> 
> Try again fanboy


At first drones will be used to deliver along secured routes.

There is a huge new hospital being built here on the north shore in Sydney. A Medical supply warehouse only 6kms away (as the crow flys) is looking to get air traffic clearance to establish a flight corridor at 200-250m between their warehouse and this hospital. Once that is in place all it takes is a transponder at each end to automate flight route, and separation protocols when there are more than a few flying about.

The hospital will also have arrival docks at various levels and locations so deliveries can be taken directly to the correct department saving time, cost and multiple handling.

Those applications will have less risk than others as you correctly point out.


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## LuisEnrikee (Mar 31, 2016)

I like having my own car and going to the gym , store , beach , anywhere I want and at any time I want . Even Uber or Lyft aren’t quite as good as that . I do not wish to pay 5$ to go to the gym , another 5$ to go to the store, and another 10$ to go back home when with my car I can do it for basically the cost of gas which Is 3$ where I live for a liter


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