# Is Rideshare Recession Proof?



## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

I wrote this post because I have more questions than answers. I saw something today (6/3/19) that is worth sharing. But I shall admit; when it comes to economy and securities exchange, I'm usually wrong. However, some basic indicators are hard to ignore.

I have been following the market with my tiny ant account for decades. I pay close attention to indicators such as 10 year treasury curve and several other indexes.Today the 10-year treasury yield fell to 21 months low of 2.067%, which means investors are dumping stocks and buying US Treasuries and we know higher bond prices means lower yields. It usually, but not necessarily, signals trouble ahead. 

Our economy has a "Boom and Bust" pattern, economic expansions and contractions since 1940's. We have been in a decade long economic expansion. Usually they are shorter. Rideshare business was created during this prosperity period, it hasn't seen a recession, it hasn't been through tough economic times. Remember 2008? Remember double digits unemployment just a decade ago? There was no rideshares like today, it was just at it's infancy.
Despite some indications of an economic downturn, I don't think we will see a "Bust" anytime soon. But those numbers got me thinking, will the rideshare business withstand a recession? Will people still spend the money to be driven around? 

It's something to think about. I absolutely have no clues and no answers. I went back to check on taxi business during recession periods, couldn't find any reliable source of such statistics. Maybe you do, please share. There are couple of posts on the net which is deviding it into discretionary rides such as driving to bars and restaurants and staple rides, driving to and from work, doctors etc. But it really doesn't answer the question. We know rideshare will contract with the economy, but right now, even in good times, ants are crawling on top of each other looking for a ping, what will happen when we have to endure the contraction time?

One thing is certain, what goes up, must come down, I just hope not anytime soon. And if, hopefully just a "Soft Landing."

There are thousands of members here much much smarter than I with amazing knowledge, I hope they share with us some of their thoughts and maybe how to plot this uncharted territory if and when we get there.


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## oldfart (Dec 22, 2017)

In a recession I would expect more drivers and more riders and our income ought to remain constant

More drivers because in tough times there will be more folks that need the “extra” income. And more riders because we are so dependent on the automobile and more folks won’t be able to afford one

Just my opinion


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## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

oldfart said:


> In a recession I would expect more drivers and more riders and our income ought to remain constant
> 
> More drivers because in tough times there will be more folks that need the "extra" income. And more riders because we are so dependent on the automobile and more folks won't be able to afford one
> 
> Just my opinion


Probably right, however I think there will be many more drivers, and not nearly enough riders to make up the difference.


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## emdeplam (Jan 13, 2017)

Recession =
Less business travel
Less tourism
Fewer people going to work
Less discretionary spending
More drivers

The roads of Lagos were so quiet in 08 09....wish I had a license


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## Disgusted Driver (Jan 9, 2015)

It depends on the market. Here in RDU a substantial portion of the business is leisure, people going out Friday and Saturday night for example. Recession = less discretionary income so fewer people going out. Add to that, more ants trying to replace their income after being laid off and I think you would never see a surge here again.


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## BobMarley (Feb 12, 2019)

oldfart said:


> In a recession I would expect more drivers and more riders and our income ought to remain constant
> 
> More drivers because in tough times there will be more folks that need the "extra" income. And more riders because we are so dependent on the automobile and more folks won't be able to afford one
> 
> Just my opinion


More drivers? Yup. More riders? Doubt it. Less going out drinking... or still drinking but going somewhere closer* or risking a DUI, more taking the bus instead of Uber to work, fewer people going to the airport for business or pleasure. Maybe more pool riders.

*I think the micropub fad, and its HUGE here, is hurting rideshare. I mean there is like one here per square mile so most people can go drink nearby. Theres one in a tiny little mini-mall thing like 400 yards from my house for example.


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

emdeplam said:


> Recession =
> Less business travel
> Less tourism
> Fewer people going to work
> ...


Does safari tourism remain constant in a recession?


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## U/L guy (May 28, 2019)

It depends on what market you’re in, here in Florida tourism industry slows down, but people will use Uber more to go shopping and getting to work. It’ll be cheaper then owning a car.


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

Your municipality probably has a taxi commission of some sort with publicly available data. Ours does. 

Uber hasn't been around long enough in all markets, so go and get the info from 2008-2010 from the taxi commission to see how many rides were done, and whether or not it went up or down.


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## Atom guy (Jul 27, 2016)

In a recession, when people are laid off the first place they go is to unemployment. Can't do ride share and collect at the same time - at least not legally. So at first we probably wouldn't see a large influx of new drivers. But as a recession wears on, I am sure we would. Another thing to consider is the passengers. Delinquent auto loans are already at levels not seen since the last recession, so as people start to lose their cars, that would mean more passengers for us.


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## touberornottouber (Aug 12, 2016)

No, because the companies are scumbags. They will see drivers are desperate and will cut pay to 30 cents a mile.


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## BobMarley (Feb 12, 2019)

Atom guy said:


> In a recession, when people are laid off the first place they go is to unemployment. Can't do ride share and collect at the same time - at least not legally. So at first we probably wouldn't see a large influx of new drivers. But as a recession wears on, I am sure we would. Another thing to consider is the passengers. Delinquent auto loans are already at levels not seen since the last recession, so as people start to lose their cars, that would mean more passengers for us.


It depends on the state, but you can earn *some* money through 1099 work, and not lose your unemployment benefits. And since its income (profit), not revenue, that the calculation is based on, you can do considerable rideshare and still get some benefits. Some states will allow you to earn a small amount without deducting from unemployment benefits. Others will deduct 50% up to a point.


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## WAHN (May 6, 2019)

Nope. Recessions drive more people into so-called self-employed type gigs like MLM, direct marketing, gig working, etc.

On the bright side, when it happens more people will be stressed out, so one potential growth industry would be:

https://www.indeed.com/q-Cannabis-Delivery-jobs.html


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## Amos69 (May 17, 2019)

emdeplam said:


> Recession =
> Less business travel
> Less tourism
> Fewer people going to work
> ...


In a nut shell

Minus the Lagos quip of course.

OR,

More Ants and less sugar


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

An update: the market seems to be rebounding today after Fed chairman is signaling actions (probably pumping more money into system and keeping the rats low or even lower them) The 10 years yield bounced to 2.12% (at this moment 6/4 2pm N.Y. Time) 2 hours before market close. It is still low. I'm just reporting and not commenting.

Couple of members are saying; a recession will result in less car sales and folks would rely more on rideshare rather than buying new car or adding miles to their existing car. This could offset some of the rideshare losses during a recession. 

It makes sense to me as a valid reasoning and something to think about !!


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## treesweets dancer (May 4, 2019)

1.5xorbust said:


> Does safari tourism remain constant in a recession?


Safari tourism? Is that like when the people with money come visit my city & ride around on top of buses to look down at us poor people in the ghetto, while the bus tour guide says "there u see some local wildlife engaged in a crack sale".


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

treesweets dancer said:


> Safari tourism? Is that like when the people with money come visit my city & ride around on top of buses to look down at us poor people in the ghetto, while the bus tour guide says "there u see some local wildlife engaged in a crack sale".


Just lovely, thank you.


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## Invisible (Jun 15, 2018)

Good thread, Tom.

Like others have noted, a recession will bring more ants and lower pay.

It may not be those who qualify for unemployment, but those who were self-employed and don’t qualify for unemployment, such as those in Real Estate.

However, a recession may cause some ants to stop because they may not be able to afford car repairs. Also, some ants may have their cars repossessed, and others may lose their cars in bankruptcy. Months ago it was reported that 7 million Americans were 3 months behind on auto loans. Imagine that number in a recession.


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## TheDevilisaParttimer (Jan 2, 2019)

touberornottouber said:


> No, because the companies are scumbags. They will see drivers are desperate and will cut pay to 30 cents a mile.


I've been telling everyone a while now that as soon as Recession time hits Uber and Lyft with halve driver income.


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## Ubermcbc (Sep 25, 2016)

oldfart said:


> In a recession I would expect more drivers and more riders and our income ought to remain constant
> 
> More drivers because in tough times there will be more folks that need the "extra" income. And more riders because we are so dependent on the automobile and more folks won't be able to afford one
> 
> Just my opinion


No. If the economy goes really bad, there won't be any joy rides. Pax will share rides more frequently with their buddies. More airport runs will end up on a dart train station. Drivers have to work extra hours everyday just to make it to their target income. More driving time means less average income for the drivers.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

Invisible said:


> Good thread, Tom.
> 
> Like others have noted, a recession will bring more ants and lower pay.
> 
> ...


Thank you for your kind words. And your response make sense. Your statistic of 7 million Americans 90 days plus behind on their car payment is totally accurate as reported just last February on Furtune dot com. I'm sure the number has increased by now.

Unfortunately, recessions creeps in as Fed feeds the economy with cheap money and make the contraction invisible or unnoticeable until people fall behind on their car payments, next is mortgage and so on. Fed Reserve can do only so much. Today, they came out flooding the bond market to bring the bond prices down and subsequently feeding the bubble. Today the yield went up to 2.13

In Germany, the 10 year treasury has a minus yield, -0.206 it's a.minus !!! Below zero.

I do not have the knowledge, skills and the information to make any predictions, positive or negative. All I know is that I don't like what I see and I'm sure I'm wrong. I want to be wrong.


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## Amos69 (May 17, 2019)

Tom Oldman said:


> Thank you for your kind words. And your response make sense. Your statistic of 7 million Americans 90 days plus behind on their car payment is totally accurate as reported just last February on Furtune dot com. I'm sure the number has increased by now.
> 
> Unfortunately, recessions creeps in as Fed feeds the economy with cheap money and make the contraction invisible or unnoticeable until people fall behind on their car payments, next is mortgage and so on. Fed Reserve can do only so much. Today, they came out flooding the bond market to bring the bond prices down and subsequently feeding the bubble. Today the yield went up to 2.13
> 
> ...


You're not wrong. We are due cyclically, and the current Republican administration is up to their usual economy killing business enriching shenanigans.


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## Amsoil Uber Connect (Jan 14, 2015)

Hope you have asset protection. The Fed is in control and they are no more Federal than Federal Express.

With 59,000 homeless in LA, looks grim. 

Some hate Prison Planet and Alex Jones. I'd rather be informed 3 to 6 months in advance, than wake up one morning not having a clue what the hell just happened and relay on the bs local news to explain it. Cause by then it is to late. I crack up when thet say something that I knew 3 months ago. Makes them look really lame.

The good news is, The price of gas is coming down and Gold is up. Other counties are exchanging dollars for gold to and the boys running the show are not happy about that. Will they tell you ? No way. The peasants in the field ( you and I ) are not suppose to know this.


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

I love Alex Jones.


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## Amos69 (May 17, 2019)

ANT 7 said:


> I love Alex Jones.


Me too! He is so freaking funny and he doesn't even know that he is a comedian. I laugh my ads off every time I see anything he does. Like the three stooges all in one.


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## Ballermaris (Apr 11, 2019)

BobMarley said:


> More drivers? Yup. More riders? Doubt it. Less going out drinking... or still drinking but going somewhere closer* or risking a DUI, more taking the bus instead of Uber to work, fewer people going to the airport for business or pleasure. Maybe more pool riders.
> 
> *I think the micropub fad, and its HUGE here, is hurting rideshare. I mean there is like one here per square mile so most people can go drink nearby. Theres one in a tiny little mini-mall thing like 400 yards from my house for example.


In my area of Atlanta we have 5 of them in 5 miles of each other. Had a Pax that I picked up three different times the same day. He said he would walk to the last two...


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## BobMarley (Feb 12, 2019)

Ballermaris said:


> In my area of Atlanta we have 5 of them in 5 miles of each other. Had a Pax that I picked up three different times the same day. He said he would walk to the last two...


5 in 5 miles of each other... thats cute.


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## homelesswarlock (Dec 20, 2018)

Tom Oldman said:


> I wrote this post because I have more questions than answers. I saw something today (6/3/19) that is worth sharing. But I shall admit; when it comes to economy and securities exchange, I'm usually wrong. However, some basic indicators are hard to ignore.
> 
> I have been following the market with my tiny ant account for decades. I pay close attention to indicators such as 10 year treasury curve and several other indexes.Today the 10-year treasury yield fell to 21 months low of 2.067%, which means investors are dumping stocks and buying US Treasuries and we know higher bond prices means lower yields. It usually, but not necessarily, signals trouble ahead.
> 
> ...


Yes I believe that rideshare is recession proof because drivers will continually exploit themselves and their personal resources for a quick buck.

And what about depreciation? I know! Just steal a car and it's pure profit.


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## WAHN (May 6, 2019)

homelesswarlock said:


> And what about depreciation? I know! Just steal a car and it's pure profit.


Now you're catching on. 
https://uberpeople.net/threads/stolen-car-recovered-with-lyft-sticker-and-11k-miles.225590/


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## federal (Jun 5, 2019)

sorry


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## UberProphet? (Dec 24, 2014)

*Is Rideshare Recession Proof?*

Yes, you won't be able to make decent money during a recession either.


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## SOLA-RAH (Dec 31, 2014)

Ubering during a recession would be tough, as some riders turn into drivers thus fewer rides to go around. Whatever you’re making hourly/weekly now it’s sure to go down in a recession.

BUT if you could barely hang on, like doing rides only on your 2 filters per day, and just wait while other drivers starve out or give up, business could boom again as soon as the economy perked back up.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

SOLA-RAH said:


> Ubering during a recession would be tough, as some riders turn into drivers thus fewer rides to go around. Whatever you're making hourly/weekly now it's sure to go down in a recession.
> 
> BUT if you could barely hang on, like doing rides only on your 2 filters per day, and just wait while other drivers starve out or give up, business could boom again as soon as the economy perked back up.


Well said; surviving the contraction, maneuvering around the bust period, is the key to stay in business. The contraction periods are usually shorter than boom time.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

The problem now is there are drivers (some in ridiculous vehicles) doing this to get out of the house or a hobby, they aren’t in it for money, so yeah I think people that have no lives but make money at their real job will gladly drive into the negative, much like they are already doing because it beats anything else they got going on.


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## emdeplam (Jan 13, 2017)

Jay Dean said:


> The problem now is there are drivers (some in ridiculous vehicles) doing this to get out of the house or a hobby, they aren't in it for money, so yeah I think people that have no lives but make money at their real job will gladly drive into the negative, much like they are already doing because it beats anything else they got going on.


Not a bug, a feature


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## SOLA-RAH (Dec 31, 2014)

Tom Oldman said:


> Well said; surviving the contraction, maneuvering around the bust period, is the key to stay in business. The contraction periods are usually shorter than boom time.


It's a seasonal job with lots of ebbs & flows already. In DC it's dead August & January, then fall & spring are busier than the summertime. Lots of drivers get cut out every January when business dries up until Valentine's Day.



Jay Dean said:


> The problem now is there are drivers (some in ridiculous vehicles) doing this to get out of the house or a hobby, they aren't in it for money, so yeah I think people that have no lives but make money at their real job will gladly drive into the negative, much like they are already doing because it beats anything else they got going on.


These drivers do keep the system reliable. They complete so few trips at the worst time of day (10am-4pm) that their overall earnings are barely drops in the bucket. The truly casual driver won't focus and put in their best effort to maximize miles. They do it for socialization, a relaxed retirement gig, or simply just to get out of the house for a bit.

It takes about 5,000 rides over a couple years to "master" uber driving, and these folks will never get there. You really have to know what you're doing to stay profitable year-round and my best tip is that you have to know *when* to drive. The best hours can be the toughest...10 am/pm rush hours and any time on the weekend + special city-wide events, but that's where the real money always will be.


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## doyousensehumor (Apr 13, 2015)

Rideshare is the Temp Agency of America. 
Better believe it would get swamped with drivers!

I started cab during the resession in 2009 partially because of the resession. 

$5 an hour is better than no job. More drivers would join uber during a recession. Their standards would be lower. Drivers stage like a cab stand at honey spots.

Pax take less rides. Rides during the recession are shorter, and more essentuals. Groceries and work. Fewer joy rides. Movie theaters did ok and mid-range bars. Dating is one of the last things people give up when they are broke. College kids still spend their parents' money. 

Goverment and insurance vouchers were not affected. The amount of money blown on these vouchers was amazing.


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## Jtnjdrive (Mar 21, 2019)

Tom Oldman said:


> Thank you for your kind words. And your response make sense. Your statistic of 7 million Americans 90 days plus behind on their car payment is totally accurate as reported just last February on Furtune dot com. I'm sure the number has increased by now.
> 
> Unfortunately, recessions creeps in as Fed feeds the economy with cheap money and make the contraction invisible or unnoticeable until people fall behind on their car payments, next is mortgage and so on. Fed Reserve can do only so much. Today, they came out flooding the bond market to bring the bond prices down and subsequently feeding the bubble. Today the yield went up to 2.13
> 
> ...


We live in a paper economy and paper ain't worth s***. You think the last recession was bad just wait till the next one. The only thing keeping this economy afloat is debt. Hang onto your hats folks the next five years are going to be rough.


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## CZ75 (Aug 10, 2018)

Probably lots of opportunities on Uber Pool during a recession!


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## rkozy (Apr 5, 2019)

oldfart said:


> In a recession I would expect more drivers and more riders and our income ought to remain constant


That's my hope as well, although I think a recession could drive down total earnings for rideshare since the number of people who will sign up to drive may very well outpace those who can't afford their own transportation. Uber and Lyft have made it pretty easy for people with 10-year-old cars to earn extra cash. Many of those folks already own their cars, and will be looking for additional income.

Meanwhile, most people who can't truly afford a car are already using rideshare services. For those folks, a recession may push them from using Uber/Lyft into taking mass transit, which is cheaper per ride. Everybody is going to be tightening their belts during a recession, and today's low-income passenger on Lyft is tomorrow's passenger on the CTA or MARTA.

Just a thought. I hope I'm wrong. I did hear stories that during the DC Shutdown, a sudden oversupply of drivers in that area killed earnings for the regular rideshare drivers. DC's example could be a microcosm of a national economic downturn.


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## oldfart (Dec 22, 2017)

rkozy said:


> That's my hope as well, although I think a recession could drive down total earnings for rideshare since the number of people who will sign up to drive may very well outpace those who can't afford their own transportation. Uber and Lyft have made it pretty easy for people with 10-year-old cars to earn extra cash. Many of those folks already own their cars, and will be looking for additional income.
> 
> Meanwhile, most people who can't truly afford a car are already using rideshare services. For those folks, a recession may push them from using Uber/Lyft into taking mass transit, which is cheaper per ride. Everybody is going to be tightening their belts during a recession, and today's low-income passenger on Lyft is tomorrow's passenger on the CTA or MARTA.
> 
> Just a thought. I hope I'm wrong. I did hear stories that during the DC Shutdown, a sudden oversupply of drivers in that area killed earnings for the regular rideshare drivers. DC's example could be a microcosm of a national economic downturn.


No doubt there will be more drivers and I'm betting there will be more riders too. As you say the folks that use Uber now will continue to use it and it's my bet that there will be a whole new group that didn't need uber when the economy was hot but in a recession will lose their car to the repo man, or sell their 2nd car.

I speak from some personal experience. My wife and have owned houses since 1972. During the last recession our house was foreclosed and we became renters again. I'm suggesting that in the next recession folks that never dreamed that they would use Uber, will have to use it

Regarding tourism. Folks will still vacation. Perhaps they will do something less expensive but they will vacation
I'm thinking folks that usually do a European vacation will stay closer to home. Folks that like a week at the beach may do just a weekend etc


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

*Is Rideshare Recession Proof -Part 2-*

About a week ago I wrote a post "Is Rideshare Recession Proof?" It was rather a question than a statement and I asked for your opinion and help to plot the path through the troubled waters just in case.

I was amazed by the depth of the knowledge and intuition of my fellow drivers. Thanks to your participation, this -Part 2- is inspired by your responses. I just summarized what I received from you.

Now again, I'm asking you to express your opinions because this economy of ours has its own will and moods. Rideshare has seen only the pretty face of this moody $20 trillion monster during the longest expansion in recent history. We would not know the Rideshares' reaction to a recession. There is no precedent.

I gather from your inputs that we need to look at 4 factors; an economy in recessio, rideshare companies, the rideshare drivers and rideshare riders.

*FACTOR ONE: *would be the economy in a hypothetical recession; will it happen? Most probably yes. When? We just don't know. What about those Harvard educated analyst and bankers? Those financial experts? Sorry, they mostly just talk into their own pockets. Worst of all are those characters on CNBC's Fast Money, Mad Money, "This money" and "That money." usually they leave you "Without Money." At this point, we just stick to the golden 2 letters "IF" and what if a recession occurs. It's just the nature and mechanism of our capitalist, consumer-oriented system: Boom and Bust. Expansion and Contraction, Consumer Sentiment. Presently, we are on the longest economic expansion in modern times and hopefully it stays that way. Our Stage is just a theoretical scenario.

*FATOR TWO*: Rideshare companies. The shares of the Uber and Lyft are mostly owned institutionally, which means investment bankers, hedge funds, mutual funds and of course offshore corps belonging to God knows who. About a decade ago, we learned and we were told; those financial institutions are "Too Big to Fail" and you and I must pay for them to survive. They will keep their "pet projects" such as Uber and Lyft alive even if they lose most of their stock value, the will stay as "Actors" in this act and someday, they will bring out the AV (Autonomous Vehicles) and let the shareholders walk into the promised land of profits and more profits. Hallelujah&#8230;

*FACTOR THREE*: Are the rideshare drivers, you and I. The rideshare companies will water down our pay to the level of janitorial, agricultural and other minimum wage occupations, just to bridge the time to a useful AV technology and it will happen. There have been always those who don't mind taking their lives down a notch, just above slavery; taking backbreaking jobs such as agricultural and farm jobs, floor mopping, boss boy and other low paid jobs. Those folks will always survive with very little income. Those of us who are working to pay a mortgage, car payment, and manage a middle-class life will struggle. Unfortunately.

*ACTOR FOUR:* The rideshare riders will have less money to spend, they will use rideshare as a staple service, to and from work and many pool rides. Some may opt for buses and other public transportation. Some may even ride bikes, as one member here mentioned. Unfortunately, public transportation isn't very advanced in this beloved country of ours but that could change and cheap rideshare may fill the gap. One thing is certain; The discretionary rides such as barhopping, dining out and other unnecessary rides will be reduced and with it those nice fat tips.

*AN UNEXPECTED OUTCOME:* One more factor in all of this is the revolution of car ownership. There are tons of reports, statistics and editorial from highly credited sources that rideshare will impact the car ownership and transportation overall. It will reshape the car ownership landscape but how and when it is unclear. Each expert has his/her own take about this subject. I found a quote by Bill Gates which is worth sharing: "We tend to overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10"

Please share your thoughts, this rideshare business of ours hasn't seen a recession and we all hope that it won't happen anytime soon. Again, there are many members here with great knowledge and good education in this forum, share with us your thoughts.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

The Uber/Lyft dream is to replace private car ownership in the new Subscription Economy.

A lot of people who are ubering think that Kalanick's dream was to replace taxi cabs. No, that is just a small part of it. Uber has a market cap of $71 Billion. Much more than Southwest, American, United Airlines combined.

A taxi outfit, even international could never justify that kind of valuation.

A recession might be a good thing for Uber, in getting people out of their cars.


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## Invisible (Jun 15, 2018)

I_Like_Spam said:


> The Uber/Lyft dream is to replace private car ownership in the new Subscription Economy.


That will happen as more people lose their cars because they have massive auto loans they can't afford.

Therefore, R/S in the next recession may only be busier during work commuting hours because people lose their cars (repo/bankruptcy/repairs needed). But they need to get to work or go on interviews because they were laid-off.

Yet, it may be slower during the wknds since pax will be drinking at home instead of going to bars, staying home and cooking instead of going out to eat, and staying home and chilling with Netflix instead of going to concerts and movies.

The airport runs will be slower because less people will go on vacation and companies may limit business travel.

However, if R/S were busier during commuting hours, there will still be too many drivers, and lower pay.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

My kids were big Uber/Lyft users.

*Were.*

Neither of my boys were in a hurry to learn to drive and get their licenses. They both were around 25 before they got their licenses. My princess who is 17 just got her license. She's been driving (not on city streets) since she was twelve.

Then they started working and had to pay daily to/from rides.

They realized that at the end of the week those fares added up.

Now each of us has a car. My princess starts her summer job next week. Her goal in two months is her own car.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

observer said:


> Neither of my boys were in a hurry to learn to drive and get their licenses. They both were around 25 b


That's very interesting as boys usually can't wait to get behind the wheels. This maybe the classic example of future generations; get a ride rather than having a car or access to a car. The fact that your boys didn't get their driver's license until age 25 could be a classic testament to those predictions that future generations may prefer rideshare (most likely the AVs) to car ownership.

I must confess I'm a SiFi & Treky addict. In the 60's my mother would use TV as my babysitter and I was amazed how.Captain Kirck would flip his com device and "beam me up Scotty!" We saw the flip phones came and became history. There is no shortage of futuristic movies showing people jump in driverless car to ride to their destinations. Not many can actually drive.a car. That vision is getting closer to reality and you and your beloved sons may have the front row to the show.

Thank you for your response, very interesting and inspiring.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

Tom Oldman said:


> That's very interesting as boys usually can't wait to get behind the wheels. This maybe the classic example of future generations; get a ride rather than having a car or access to a car. The fact that your boys didn't get their driver's license until age 25 could be a classic testament to those predictions that future generations may prefer rideshare (most likely the AVs) to car ownership.
> 
> I must confess I'm a SiFi & Treky addict. In the 60's my mother would use TV as my babysitter and I was amazed how.Captain Kirck would flip his com device and "beam me up Scotty!" We saw the flip phones came and became history. There is no shortage of futuristic movies showing people jump in driverless car to ride to their destinations. Not many cab actually drive.a car. That vision is getting closer to reality and you and your beloved sons may have the front row to the show.
> 
> Thank you for your response, very interesting and inspiring.


The interesting thing is it wasn't just my boys. Most of their high school peers didn't get their licenses till out of their teens.

I think part of it has to do with high schools dropping drivers ed. I started drivers ed while 15 and got my license at 15 1/2. But I grew up driving trucks, tractors and bull dozers.

I was thinking why my princess started earlier than the boys and realized it was partly me pushing her (she does have a strong independent streak :biggrin: ).

I've raised her mostly by myself since she was 5 or 6 and I'd take her down to Mexico and allow her to drive there. She started driving on the ranch and gradually I allowed her to drive us home. From there we started driving to other towns.

I think that deep down I pushed her more than the boys so she could drive herself around and not rely on other (male) drivers.

Sexist? Yea. I think so but it's better than me having to go out, hunt someone down and wind up in jail. ☺


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

observer said:


> Sexist? Yea. I think so but it's better than me having to go out, hunt someone down and wind up in jail. ☺


No, not sexist, it's just very natural for a girl to show her strength to the two older brothers, it isn't unusual for the girls in a household with male majority to be strong and some even become overachievers female leaders. It's their instinct to survive the male domination. I think you're very lucky with your Princess but she is the luckier one having a caring father. No, you ain't a sexist, you're a father loving and caring for your daughter.



Invisible said:


> Therefore, R/S in the next recession may only be busier during work commuting hours because people lose their cars (repo/bankruptcy/repairs needed). But they need to get to work or go on interviews because they were laid-off.


That's a good assessment and you're correct that millions of Americans (i believe 7 millions as reported last March) are behind with their car payments. I got perfectly sober pax, in the middle of the day, "oh yeah my car is in the shop." 2 weeks later, same young man (my work area is relatively small) going to work and the "car still in the shop!!?"

I tend to think, in near future, the staple rideshare, to and from work, interviews as you mentioned and other unavoidable rides will take their own course, maybe a new company or the existing two will have a separate devision for staple rides.

PayPal was just a small part of eBay, the.smart Elon Musk turned it into a giant. Not the best example but the gig economy companies (EBay was considered one in the beginning of internet era) have sometimes interesting byproducts.


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## Invisible (Jun 15, 2018)

Tom Oldman said:


> That's a good assessment and you're correct that millions of Americans (i believe 7 millions as reported last March) are behind with their car payments. I got perfectly sober pax, in the middle of the day, "oh yeah my car is in the shop." 2 weeks later, same young man (my work area is relatively small) going to work and the "car still in the shop!!?"
> 
> I tend to think, in near future, the staple rideshare, to and from work, interviews as you mentioned and other unavoidable rides will take their own course, maybe a new company or the existing two will have a separate devision for staple rides.


Thanks, I hadn't thought about the car being repo'd as code for my car is in the shop. I thought it was for some who got DUI's, and his/her license was suspended. But some I know the car really is in the shop because I've picked/dropped off at a mechanic.

A new rideshare company would be good. U/L need competition.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Invisible said:


> Thanks, I hadn't thought about the car being repo'd as code for my car is in the shop. I thought it was for some who got DUI's, and his/her license was suspended. But some I know the car really is in the shop because I've picked/dropped off at a mechanic.
> 
> A new rideshare company would be good. U/L need competition.


More competition in the rideshare sector would mean lower prices. Econ 101, that's the effect of an increased supply.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

Invisible said:


> Thanks, I hadn't thought about the car being repo'd as code for my car is in the shop. I thought it was for some who got DUI's, and his/her license was suspended. But some I know the car really is in the shop because I've picked/dropped off at a mechanic.
> 
> A new rideshare company would be good. U/L need competition.


Recessions usually shake up the social landscape and bring unexpected changes.
Your idea of staple kind of rideshare is really very realistic and again, downturn in economy may just give the rideshare companies the idea to Spin-off the staple part. That is truly great subject by itself. It will be more of frugal kind of services because of frequent use.

If imaginary paxes; Adam, Eva, Mark and Frank who live within a 5 miles and have to be at 123 Abc street at 9 am Monday through Friday and ride back home at 5 pm, they could use one work pool. Many do it now with their own car but why bother with all expenses of owning and operating a car. Maybe one isn't available certain day, with rideshare, they are bunch of other ants ready to jump in. Pool Rides would be sold in blocks, weeks, month etc. It's coming.


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## I_Like_Spam (May 10, 2015)

Invisible said:


> That will happen as more people lose their cars because they have massive auto loans they can't afford.
> 
> Therefore, R/S in the next recession may only be busier during work commuting hours because people lose their cars (repo/bankruptcy/repairs needed). But they need to get to work or go on interviews because they were laid-off.
> 
> ...


I think there will be all sorts of rides, if the ride sharing future is realized. Probably a lot of delivery work, medical appointments in addition to commuting. A local hospital might provide medical transportation for its patients for daily physical therapy or radiation therapy, or psychiatric therapy, or meth maintenance. Moving to ride share will be a lot of work as well.

You seem to be thinking of Ride Sharing as just Taxi 2.0. If that's all it becomes, it will be a failure.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

I_Like_Spam said:


> The Uber/Lyft dream is to replace private car ownership in the new Subscription Economy.
> 
> A lot of people who are ubering think that Kalanick's dream was to replace taxi cabs. No, that is just a small part of it. Uber has a market cap of $71 Billion. Much more than Southwest, American, United Airlines combined.
> 
> ...


A recession usually may come with unexpected byproducts. One would.be, as you mentioned, to get people out of their cars and all expenses associated with it. I had a pax, a young man in his mid 20s telling me his car transmission is shot and needs a $2k repair parked in front of his parents home, he was planning to donate the car with free tow and just ride uber and Lyft for now. Again, I believe we may see one or both rideshare companies to spin off a cheap rideshare for those who need to drive a car but can't afford it and public transportation isn't convenient or too far.


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## Invisible (Jun 15, 2018)

I_Like_Spam said:


> I think there will be all sorts of rides, if the ride sharing future is realized. Probably a lot of delivery work, medical appointments in addition to commuting. A local hospital might provide medical transportation for its patients for daily physical therapy or radiation therapy, or psychiatric therapy, or meth maintenance. Moving to ride share will be a lot of work as well.
> 
> You seem to be thinking of Ride Sharing as just Taxi 2.0. If that's all it becomes, it will be a failure.


I'm thinking in the context of the next recession, not in terms of the future of R/S. This thread is about the next recession with R/S after all.

While my thinking may be Taxi 2.0, it's because places like hospitals and clinics already offer med transportation in my area. There is also the liability and training of R/S drivers for med purposes. R/S will evolve more, but it may not do so during a recession.

I'm thinking in terms of Uber-Economics 101, get as many ants who are in dire need of any work in a recession and keep lowering fares.


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