# We are Decades Away From Full Self-Driving Cars



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...rs-14853271?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

If you are at 98% accuracy for autonomous driving right now, you are practically nowhere.

So I guess like, I don't know, 98% good right now, but we need it to be like 99.999%, really extremely reliable. So - and the capability will be there for - when will we think it's safe for full self-driving? It's probably towards the end of this year, and then it's up to regulators to decide when they want to approve that."

The difference between 98% and 99.999 is huge. It's four orders of magnitude. It's something that will likely take at least 20 to 30 years to accomplish. We are simply not anywhere close today -- not Tesla, not anyone else.


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## UberHammer (Dec 5, 2014)

Even when they reach 99.999%, that still doesn't account for them being used to replace rideshare.

The 100% they're referring to does not include pax putting pickup requests in spots where there is no legal place to stop. 

If you program the car to find a legal place to stop, then you'll get the pax calling the driverless car to say "where are you?" What is the driverless car going to do with that data? The rider app already show the pax where the car is. What more is the car going to say that their phone hasn't already said?

You'll also have driverless cars going to the back of buildings, 'cause that's where the maps try to send us, but we know better and go to the front. These driverless cars won't know better. If they did, then the map itself would know better.

And then of course all the bad pickup locations we get sent. What is a driverless car going to do with "hey I put in the wrong address, I"m at _____... come pick me up"?


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

UberHammer said:


> Even when they reach 99.999%, that still doesn't account for them being used to replace rideshare.
> 
> The 100% they're referring to does not include pax putting pickup requests in spots where there is no legal place to stop.
> 
> ...


There's a million reasons why SDC's will never ever work. Those are only a minute amount of questions there are for SDC's if they could ever get them to work. We could be here all night stating why they will never beat a human.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> There's a million reasons why SDC's will never ever work. Those are only a minute amount of questions there are for SDC's if they could ever get them to work. We could be here all night stating why they will never beat a human.


SDC's are far superior in every way when it comes to traffic deaths, what we prioritize is everything below that, so if we take into account saving lives and getting to point A to B, which I have seen with my own eyes in Austin with google SUVS, with zero accidents and deaths, then yes. But if you take into everything else which includes feeding our fat assess when we want and wanting things specific to a curb, then we are by far decades away lol.

Priorities are the problem here, not technology and IMO what is important.

Furthermore, once something is "instituted" it only improves, and by that I mean that newer development (by funding) and learning adds to the advancement. I have seen the same 'human' death sign only increase on Texas roads each year, while I have only heard of one death by an autonomous car. People want things either perfect or fancy out the box, but if we all had to work around the AI, instead of us waiting for AI to be super smart (without proper financial backing and support), we would have so many (humans) still around today.

And I will further say that it is not the intellect that is involved that causes the problems, it is the emotion. A computer is predictable, a human has hundreds of emotions that can change on an instant (including road rage, or you name it X a thousand...mood of a song?) All of these are the reasons for accidents.

A Caveman has all the SKILLS to operate a motor vehicle...think about that. A computer is rock solid in it's 'process'. When something is a yes or a no, the answer is the same. When something is an opinion, you get what we have been getting when it comes to traffic deaths.

Priorities in what is important, It will take decades because nobody really cares about what 'works' they just want what 'they' want.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

Lee239 said:


> https://www.thestreet.com/investing...rs-14853271?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
> 
> If you are at 98% accuracy for autonomous driving right now, you are practically nowhere.
> 
> ...


I got stuck behind one of these recently. There was a work truck parked in the street ahead; the crew was cutting branches off a tree. They'd put cones behind the truck.

I don't know what brand SDC it was; maybe GM's one, but it got totally confused by this scenario, did not know what to do and just stopped dead in the street. I waited a few seconds and then just went around it.

This happens a lot in SF. They're far from ready for prime time.

Big shout out to Elon Musk, though; the man is a GENIUS. "I'll sell you a car with self driving hardware. It doesn't actually work yet - we're just waiting for a software update to be finished - but pay for the hardware now and we'll send the software out to you when it's done".

Hilarious! Absolute genius businessman.


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> SDC's are far superior in every way when it comes to traffic deaths,


Given that there has never been a single video in history showing a SDC driving continuously and unedited for more than 15 minutes showing the car driving itself in public on public roads with no help from a human driver I would love to hear what exactly you are basing that on.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> Given that there has never been a single video in history showing a SDC driving continuously and unedited for more than 15 minutes showing the car driving itself in public on public roads with no help from a human driver I would love to hear what exactly you are basing that on.


I didnt record for 15 minutes, but trust me, I follow a lot of local news, not a bleep of these guys ever in a an accident
https://www.texastribune.org/2015/09/30/test-drive-google-self-driving-cars-austin/

And yes, they were seen by my eyes for about two years in recollection in HEAVY traffic. In fact, Austin is one of the worst traffic cities (that you CAN easily google)

But that is years ago now, so it is old news and did not 'happen' LOL


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> I didnt record for 15 minutes, but trust me, I follow a lot of local news, not a bleep of these guys ever in a an accident
> https://www.texastribune.org/2015/09/30/test-drive-google-self-driving-cars-austin/
> 
> And yes, they were seen by my eyes for about two years in recollection in HEAVY traffic. In fact, Austin is one of the worst traffic cities (that you CAN easily google)
> ...


when you got proof of what you claimed then people can believe what you say

Just because someone says they weren't in an accident doesn't mean they weren't in an accident. If SDC's worked there would be video of them working, especially when they've "supposedly" gone 10 million miles as Waymo has claimed.

No video means they don't work, and don't even drive themselves to begin with as I have repeatedly seen in Mountain View on a daily basis. The cars NEVER drive themselves. Period.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

If one of these in Austin was in accident, with 12 on road in heavy traffic, even you would of heard about it. SDCS work, and they work perfectly.


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> If one of these in Austin was in accident, with 12 on road, even you would of heard about it. SDCS work, and they work perfectly.


Great, let's see proof.

And you can't have an accident if you don't drive to begin with.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> Great, let's see proof.


So you are suggesting that 12 google self driving SUV's in Austin traffic got into accidents and covered it up?

how about I suggest, you prove proof I am wrong?


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> So you are suggesting that 12 google self driving SUV's in Austin traffic got into accidents and covered it up?


I'm suggesting the cars don't drive themselves. If they do, let's see the proof. When you got proof, bring it.


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## CarpeNoctem (Sep 12, 2018)

Jay Dean said:


> SDC's are far superior in every way when it comes to traffic deaths, what we prioritize is everything below that, so if we take into account saving lives and getting to point A to B, which I have seen with my own eyes in Austin with google SUVS, with zero accidents and deaths, then yes. But if you take into everything else which includes feeding our fat assess when we want and wanting things specific to a curb, then we are by far decades away lol.
> 
> Priorities are the problem here, not technology and IMO what is important.
> 
> ...


You should look at the numbers overall. If you look at the ratio of human driven miles vs deaths and SDC miles versus the 3 deaths, SDC's are 'death traps'. There may be more SDC deaths than the two Tesla's and the one in AZ that I'm not aware of....


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> you would suggest not having a human in the car to prove the point in heavy traffic in Austin? Are you a moron? The AI is fine, the humans on the road are not.
> 
> That has to be the stupidest idea I have ever heard if that is your basis for self driving cars LOL


You're the one making a claim that you can not back up. I don't need to back up anything. I'm waiting for you to back up your ridiculous claim that a SDC, that has never been shown to ever work, is somehow better than a human. Most humans such as myself have driven over 1 million miles in their lives and have never caused an accident.

There is no proof that SDC's even drive themselves, let alone have a track record that they are better than humans.

The only moron is the person making wild claims with nothing to back them up at all. Period.

When you got proof that SDC's are somehow better than humans everyone in the world would love to see it


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> You're the one making a claim that you can not back up. I don't need to back up anything. I'm waiting for you to back up your ridiculous claim that a SDC, that has never been shown to ever work, is somehow better than a human. Most humans such as myself have driven over 1 million miles in their lives and have never caused an accident.
> 
> There is no proof that SDC's even drive themselves, let alone have a track record that they are better than humans.
> 
> ...


Ok, it was all a hoax for you.


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> Ok, it was all a hoax for you.


It was a hoax to either get venture capital, justify having a job to get paid, or to prop up a share price.

But common sense is way overrated.

Again, I'll wait for proof of your outlandish claims.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> It was a hoax to either get venture capital, justify having a job to get paid, or to prop up a share price.
> 
> But common sense is way overrated.
> 
> Again, I'll wait for proof of your outlandish claims.


LOL 3 years of heavy traffic with only a driver in seat (to act like a autocar) to get CAPITAL?

Christ man...you just blew my mind.

That shit is so good even I am starting to believe it


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> LOL 3 years of heavy traffic with only a driver in seat (to act like a autocar) to get CAPITAL?
> 
> Christ man...you just blew my mind.
> 
> That shit is so good even I am starting to believe it


You blew my mind when you made a ridiculous claim with no proof. You must believe in Santa Claus too. "No, really, Santa Claus is real. I've seen the movies. You gotta believe".

Still waiting for that proof.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> You blew my mind when you made a ridiculous claim with no proof. You must believe in Santa Claus too.
> 
> Still waiting for that proof.


Proof without a driver? Why would anyone(company) sane not have a driver at the wheel?


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> Proof without a driver? Why would anyone(company) sane not have a driver at the wheel?


You don't even need a human driver to record video of the car driving itself. And you said the cars supposedly work anyhow so why would you even need a human driver since the car works better than a human.

Still waiting for that video. Let me know when you got it.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

I have a video I recorded myself, but I am not going to go through hard drives at this hour, here is a YT video that backs your claim as a driver driving a auto car for Capital for this post and this post only, except is also doing it 4 years prior for your post lol Whoops its 4 years old and fake


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> I have a video I recorded myself, but I am not going to go through hard drives at this hour, here is a YT video that backs your claim as a driver driving a auto car for Capital for this post and this post only, except is also doing it 4 years prior for your post lol Whoops its 4 years old and fake


Still waiting for that proof. Let us know when you got it.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> Still waiting for that proof. Let us know when you got it.


So 'self driving car' on back of the Lexus SUV is not proof, it is all a scam by google to gain capital?

This is gold.


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Jay Dean said:


> So 'self driving car' on back of the Lexus SUV is not proof, it is all a scam by google to gain capital?
> 
> This is gold.


Still waiting for that proof, buddy.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> Still waiting for that proof, buddy.







It was humans for capital, and for this post lol


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

I just seen you just try to post that video 35 seconds in length that shows a waymo car driving by but doesn't show the steering wheel so we don't even know if the car is driving itself but you just deleted it.

What else you got ?



Jay Dean said:


> It was humans for capital, and for this post lol


Still waiting for proof. Surely you got something to back up your claim that SDC's not only drive themselves on public roads but that they are somehow better than humans, most of which have never caused an accident in their life, even after driving atleast a half million miles.

I'll just wait right here for your proof. Don't worry.

lol "decades away from full self driving cars" ? Hell no, Jay Dean says they're already better than humans even 'though he laughs when he says no way a "sane" person would have a SDC on the road without a human in one.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

uberdriverfornow said:


> Computers can only compute based on what they have been programmed to do.


Not so. Deep learning, neural networks and other AI elements are very different from task-specific algorithms that must be programmed into software. However, AI is in its infancy and there is a long way to go before we get machines that can drive cars by themselves in open, unrestricted environments.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Most of these cars are not self driving, if you have a safety driver it's not self driving. Also human drivers have to take the wheel every so often even when testing these cars. They can't even make left turns accurately when the oncoming traffic or the traffic flow they are turning into does not stop.


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## mmn (Oct 23, 2015)

SDCs will work and they will be the norm...that is, when that's all there is on the roads and there are no more human drivers.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

Jay Dean said:


> Priorities in what is important, It will take decades because nobody really cares about what 'works' they just want what 'they' want.


People having the right to "want what they want" is literally written into the constitution of this country.

The exact wording is that we have the right to "the pursuit of happiness."

Maybe take a class in US History

You clearly slept in High School.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Jay Dean said:


> I have a video I recorded myself, but I am not going to go through hard drives at this hour, here is a YT video that backs your claim as a driver driving a auto car for Capital for this post and this post only, except is also doing it 4 years prior for your post lol Whoops its 4 years old and fake


What are you claiming? You taped a Waymo SDC in Austin?


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Lee239 said:


> Most of these cars are not self driving, if you have a safety driver it's not self driving. Also human drivers have to take the wheel every so often even when testing these cars. They can't even make left turns accurately when the oncoming traffic or the traffic flow they are turning into does not stop.


They also don't handle rain snow very well at this time.


Jay Dean said:


> SDCS work, and they work perfectly.


Perfectly??!!


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