# Uber & Lyft 2nd Quarter Earnings this Week



## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

This will be an interesting week for rideshare business; Lyft and Uber are announcing their quarterly earnings for the second fiscal quarter ending June 30th. Lyft on August 7th and Uber on August 8th, both after closing bell. 

No positive numbers are expected, investors are just looking to see which has less losses, who beats analysts expectations and which doesn't.

Numbers are important but the conference calls are equally important. Traditionally, the CEO provides the public with more information including revenue, profit & loss and other fiscal prospects in future.

The conference calls are usually available at the company's website under investor's section in form of webcast.

I suspect they will blame us, the drivers, for their losses, nothing new. There won't be a word of how generously they pay themselves and how the top dogs will receive hefty bonuses with eight or nine digit numbers and they probably will promise investors more cuts in operation expenses and more investment in AV technologies.


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

80% plus of what Uber earns goes to drivers.
Of course drivers are going to get the blame.
Along with assurances driverless cars are just around the corner.
Of course this year is all about investing in the growth and the future anyway.
Of course Uber is still in a strong financial position and there are no concerns about regulatory changes in some markets nor ongoing legal issues. 

As stock price moves south of 40.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

everythingsuber said:


> 80% plus of what Uber earns goes to drivers.
> Of course drivers are going to get the blame.
> Along with assurances driverless cars are just around the corner.
> Of course this year is all about investing in the growth and the future anyway.
> ...


I'm not sure about your market but the 80% plus doesn't exist in my.market, Los Angeles Suburbs. I give you two examples and they are from yesterday Friday Aug 2nd.

Rider payment: $11.84
Driver Receive: $6.88

Rider payment: $17.57
Driver Receive: $10.62

You do the math. I'm not "Cherry picking" just 2 random rides. Lyft is even worse, sometimes, they take more than the driver.


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## SinTaxERROR (Jul 23, 2019)

I would like someone to actually explain the massive payroll overhead these companies have. For instance, Uber has 22,000+ employees. Doing what exactly? 

In my personal opinion, that is a lot of employees for an app. Wouldn’t you agree? This is realistically why they are laying off people because they are realizing certain departments are just flooded with overkill costing waste.

I get the infrastructure probably costs a lot, housing servers and bandwidth. 

Drivers are not eating into anything. It does not matter if you have independent contractors or self driving cars. Either way it costs the company money. Self driving cars cost $$$$$ to purchase and equip with technology. Cost money to fuel, insure, maintain, clean, etc. Who will these companies then blame when SDC’s do not produce a profit.

At some point in time you need to get back to the basics and evaluate what is eating into the profits you are actually earning on your end of things. If Uber is taking in $30m a day (on the money they actually clear after driver payouts) but it’s costing $40m a day to run, something is very wrong.

Until this is fixed they will bleed investors money until they go belly up, and then no one wins in the end.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Market ready for a slight pullback ..5-8% pullback from Dow 27,300 .so earnings will not have the luxury of overall market strength .


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

Hang on to your hats folks
Tomorrow lyft is reporting its second quarter earnings and conference call, a day later, on Thursday, it's Uber's turn.

At this very moment (8/6/19 9:09 PST) the Lyft stock is at $57.63 and Uber $38.64

The interesting part is their volatility index. Lyft at 70% and Uber at 57%. High volatility index indicates uncertainty and it usually picks at earning time.

Both companies report after the closing bell; Lyft on the 7th and Uber on the 8th.


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## WAHN (May 6, 2019)

everythingsuber said:


> 80% plus of what Uber earns goes to drivers.





everythingsuber said:


> Along with assurances driverless cars are just around the corner.





everythingsuber said:


> Of course Uber is still in a strong financial position and there are no concerns about regulatory changes in some markets nor ongoing legal issues.


Comedy Gold. 

For some reason I thought you were serious at first.

Then I read that last one.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

WAHN said:


> Comedy Gold.
> 
> For some reason I thought you were serious at first.
> 
> Then I read that last one.


Same here, it fooled me


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

We all know the script.?

Dara runs the same joke and wonders why nobody laughs??


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## wicked (Sep 24, 2017)

Burn baby burn!


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## Matt Uterak (Jul 28, 2015)

As others have said, I can’t believe they aren’t profitable.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

everythingsuber said:


> 80% plus of what Uber earns goes to drivers.
> Of course drivers are going to get the blame.
> Along with assurances driverless cars are just around the corner.
> Of course this year is all about investing in the growth and the future anyway.
> ...


You got.me with this one. It's a lesson for.me.to read a post to very end and the last word. Lovely


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## dirtylee (Sep 2, 2015)

Minus 10% for both by Friday close.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

dirtylee said:


> Minus 10% for both by Friday close.


I'll take that bet for Uber, she be going up on increased market share.


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## dirtylee (Sep 2, 2015)

lyft_rat said:


> I'll take that bet for Uber, she be going up on increased market share.


$20 ez money. You do venmo or cashapp?

They just had a layoff of 400. The algorithm is in maximum theft mode. You know those 2nd quarter numbers are bad.

Friday close: 
Uber less than $35.50/share.
Lyft less than $52.50/share.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

You can venmo me the $20


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## homelesswarlock (Dec 20, 2018)

SinTaxERROR said:


> I would like someone to actually explain the massive payroll overhead these companies have. For instance, Uber has 22,000+ employees. Doing what exactly?
> 
> In my personal opinion, that is a lot of employees for an app. Wouldn't you agree? This is realistically why they are laying off people because they are realizing certain departments are just flooded with overkill costing waste.
> 
> ...


Nonono. Don't make it sound like it's grandpa's pension at stake if the stock price goes down. The investors you talk about have money to burn because this is how rich people play dice. And like the average investor, rich people and giant banks only invest what they can afford to lose.

And for all you people who firmly believe both stocks will tank; make a margin account and short both stocks. Fight money with money nawimsayin.


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## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

Lyft just removed all electric bicycles from the SF Bay area due to them spontaneously combusting.

Bicycles?
Scooters that end up in canals and trees?
Self driving cars running people over?

All that crap costs money.
Financed by drivers.

When asked why Uber never turned a profit, Travis Kalanick said...
"Well, if we didn't have to pay drivers...."


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## Ignatz (Aug 3, 2019)

I wish I wish I wish
I had Uber's problems


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## Polomarko (Dec 20, 2016)

Uber and Lyft are at the level, where big investors are playing Poker game, expecting that the general public will start to buy U/L stocks and they will be able to pull out their money. So far prognosis are not as they wanted to be.
As soon as one of this big investors decide to get out of this game, this game will be over.


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## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

Polomarko said:


> Uber and Lyft are at the level, where big investors are playing Poker game, expecting that the general public will start to buy U/L stocks and they will be able to pull out their money. So far prognosis are not as they wanted to be.
> As soon as one of this big investors decide to get out of this game, this game will be over.


A Ponzi house of cards....


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## Ignatz (Aug 3, 2019)




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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

As mentioned before, both companies will report after closing bell. As most of you probably know, there is an after-market trading, after closing bell. The volume in after market trading is not as heavy as regular hours trading. Many impatient and mostly inexperienced traders jump in (in either direction) right after the earning numbers are reported and before the conference calls, which could sometime impact the stock price more than the reported numbers.

Hedge Fund managers, investment bankers and major traders listen carefully to the conference calls before any major moves and their moves usually moves the market. 

Conference calls' webcast are usually available on each company's website, usually shortly after earnings reports.


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## Jo3030 (Jan 2, 2016)

In for -10% like someone else said.


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## homelesswarlock (Dec 20, 2018)

This is what might happen to Uber's price chart









I came to this conclusion by inverting the chart and modeling it against known patterns.










Uber's price smashed under the 200MA (60) around July 19th. If you are investing in Uber stock, I would not "buy the dip" on this one just yet. Wait a few months to see where the bottom is.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

Wolfgang Faust said:


> All that crap costs money.
> Financed by drivers.


This is perverted logic. If you drive for what you feel is an unfair wage and at the same time have high car costs, then that is self-inflicted. Don't try to put that on Uber.


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## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

lyft_rat said:


> This is perverted logic. If you drive for what you feel is an unfair wage and at the same time have high car costs, then that is self-inflicted. Don't try to put that on Uber.


Go ahead.
Invest in a company posting muli billion dollar losses.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

Tom Oldman said:


> As mentioned before, both companies will report after closing bell. As most of you probably know, there is an after-market trading, after closing bell. The volume in after market trading is not as heavy as regular hours trading. Many impatient and mostly inexperienced traders jump in (in either direction) right after the earning numbers are reported and before the conference calls, which could sometime impact the stock price more than the reported numbers.
> 
> Hedge Fund managers, investment bankers and major traders listen carefully to the conference calls before any major moves and their moves usually moves the market.
> 
> Conference calls' webcast are usually available on each company's website, usually shortly after earnings reports.


The most interesting (even safest) way to play earnings if you dare is to SELL options for the next Friday expiration. This could be either the call or put side or both. After the earnings announcement (instantly), the premium in the options will evaporate. Then you can BUY back cheaper. If the stock moves against you big, sure you get hurt but not as much as if you took the stock long or short the wrong way. I am personally long on Uber with options (small postion, say a week of driving). If Lyft has a really bad result, I may close my position before the Uber annoucement to reduce risk.


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## WAHN (May 6, 2019)

lyft_rat said:


> This is perverted logic. If you drive for what you feel is an unfair wage and at the same time have high car costs, then that is self-inflicted. Don't try to put that on Uber.


:yawn::yawn::yawn:

Or just a practical, factual observation.

Very few people get to work their dream job.

Most have to settle for tolerable, or worse. And there will always be *****ing.

It will be interesting to see how long before the stockholders start forcing these companies to start scaling back, eliminating, or selling off some of these idiotic fantasy projects that suck profits away.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

The Wall Street Journal is citing Ubereats as a possible earning problem for Uber. But that's all noise. One thing I learned after 30 years following the market; nothing is certain until the numbers are reported and the conference call is spoken. 

Also, the market is going south in the last 3 days, not a good environment.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

Another thing that you no doubt have observed, the stock can move opposite the direction implied by the earnings report under the excuse that it was already "built in". So it is a crap shoot. Earnings are fudgible but revenue not so.


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

Again, I'm not making any suggestions or recommendations, just sharing my observations:

Couple of red flags for the market in general;
Bond market: 10 year us note yield at 1.63% is a 3 years low. German 10 year note at -0.58 (minus) Japan at -0.20 (minus) 
Gold future are soaring above $1500.

This may be just investors' overreaction seeking protection or it could be signaling trouble ahead.


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## KK2929 (Feb 9, 2017)

everythingsuber said:


> 80% plus of what Uber earns goes to drivers.
> Of course drivers are going to get the blame.
> Along with assurances driverless cars are just around the corner.
> Of course this year is all about investing in the growth and the future anyway.
> ...


-----------------------------

Please explain the 80% figure above. Neither company has taken 20% ( actually it was 25% for me ) since January 1, 2018
The actual figure in the L.A. area is 49% and above, consistently and not occasionally.



SinTaxERROR said:


> I would like someone to actually explain the massive payroll overhead these companies have. For instance, Uber has 22,000+ employees. Doing what exactly?
> 
> In my personal opinion, that is a lot of employees for an app. Wouldn't you agree? This is realistically why they are laying off people because they are realizing certain departments are just flooded with overkill costing waste.
> 
> ...


------------------------------
I have been saying for two years that both companies do not know how to run efficiently. All departments are overstaffed. In the Los Angeles area, Lyft hired an outside security company to place an armed security guard in every facility with public access , including all Lyft car rental locations. That alone cost them thousands every week. Are they afraid that an angry driver is going to go postal on them? 
I talked to the mother of a former Uber employee. She told me that her son was so bored, there was little work and huge amounts of waste in every department that he worked in. All he did all day was visit with workers and play with his cell phone.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

KK2929 said:


> -----------------------------
> 
> Please explain the 80% figure above. Neither company has taken 20% ( actually it was 25% for me ) since January 1, 2018
> The actual figure in the L.A. area is 49% and above, consistently and not occasionally.


Read their report. For the last quarter it was 20%. That's a world average. They take much more on many trips (usually on short trips as far as I can tell) and on some trips they go negative.



Tom Oldman said:


> Again, I'm not making any suggestions or recommendations, just sharing my observations:
> 
> Couple of red flags for the market in general;
> Bond market: 10 year us note yield at 1.63% is a 3 years low. German 10 year note at -0.58 (minus) Japan at -0.20 (minus)
> ...


Yep all those things are lined up. Plus the S&P is way up (more than 20%) since its bottom of last Xmas eve.


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## homelesswarlock (Dec 20, 2018)

C'mon guyz. Let's not talk about rideshare companies burning money. Investors don't care. Nobody cares.

Tell me how Snap Chat makes any money.








The stock market is all about making bets on the future. If ya'll don't want to lose any money, put it in a piggy bank. Or let your mom hold onto it for you.


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## tmart (Oct 30, 2016)

homelesswarlock said:


> C'mon guyz. Let's not talk about rideshare companies burning money. Investors don't care. Nobody cares.
> 
> Tell me how Snap Chat makes any money.
> View attachment 342689
> ...


Profitable stable companies will reap you a profit over the years (walmart / att etc), questionable companies are more of a Gamble and higher risk


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## Tom Oldman (Feb 2, 2019)

I guess the lyft earning numbers fooled many rookies as predicted until the earning conference call came. I have seen this just too many times. They come out with great numbers and take advantage of the momentum and original investors dump their shares. It's the culture of never ending greed.


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## SinTaxERROR (Jul 23, 2019)

Not for nothing, if I was on the board of any major Fortune 500 company, and that company had lost $5.2 billion in just 90 days, the CEO would be gone.

How could a company lose that kind of money but the loss, at least in part, is nowhere reflected in their stock price.


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## SFOspeedracer (Jun 25, 2019)

Tom Oldman said:


> The Wall Street Journal is citing Ubereats as a possible earning problem for Uber. But that's all noise. One thing I learned after 30 years following the market; nothing is certain until the numbers are reported and the conference call is spoken.
> 
> Also, the market is going south in the last 3 days, not a good environment.


In my opinion, I have always perceived eats as a problem. They need to rid that part of the platform and focus elsewhere based on past numbers, I don't really see that turning over for the best .. you cannot market food transportation high enough to where it is a decent price point for substantial earnings - it would simply turn consumers away. However when people themselves need a ride and _fast_, they'll almost pay anything

And for most drivers their pay is coming from the tips with eats, since the consumers leverage the market freebies with eats during certain hours


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## SinTaxERROR (Jul 23, 2019)

If Uber would concentrate on what it’s algorithm does best, logistics, and stops with all the unnecessary bs Uber would make $$$. In other words, stop over engineering, charge fairly, pay fairly.

At its core Uber is logistics. Just like Amazon is logistics. It does not matter what it is you are moving, people, food, freight. If Uber was able to use its algorithm to its full potential and constantly move its contractors non stop, there would be not enough time left in the day to chat on this forum.

Imagine if Uber was able to do amazon final mile logistics. Here in NJ, everyone would have their items they ordered in prob under 2 hours.

In my opinion, Uber is on the right track, but they do not have the right outside of the box thinking that can or could take them up to the next level.


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

SinTaxERROR said:


> Not for nothing, if I was on the board of any major Fortune 500 company, and that company had lost $5.2 billion in just 90 days, the CEO would be gone.
> 
> How could a company lose that kind of money but the loss, at least in part, is nowhere reflected in their stock price.


It is reflected. 5B is roughly a 7% loss (pretty bad) and the stock went down just that amount, 7%. It was a nasty hit.


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## SinTaxERROR (Jul 23, 2019)

lyft_rat said:


> It is reflected. 5B is roughly a 7% loss (pretty bad) and the stock went down just that amount, 7%. It was a nasty hit.


So I am not going to claim I am an expert in stocks. That being said, I beg to differ with you, in a friendly way of course.

The stock spiked about $3.50 thru the day, and then lost. Pretty much ended up where it started.

Once again where is the net loss of the $5 billion from the stock value? That's $5 billion no longer available. Had to come / be drawn upon from somewhere. Correct?


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## lyft_rat (Jul 1, 2019)

Well, the stock was $43.97 before earnings were announced and it closed today at $40.05. There are 1.7B shares outstanding so the loss of Uber value today is 5B. It is a big loss actually. One might have expected them to lose market value only according to the difference between expected and actual loss.


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## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

SinTaxERROR said:


> I would like someone to actually explain the massive payroll overhead these companies have. For instance, Uber has 22,000+ employees. Doing what exactly?
> 
> In my personal opinion, that is a lot of employees for an app. Wouldn't you agree? This is realistically why they are laying off people because they are realizing certain departments are just flooded with overkill costing waste.
> 
> ...


How can anyone win dealing w/overpaid losers?


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## nonononodrivethru (Mar 25, 2019)

With these rideshare companies, investors are betting on long term plans and solutions for them to be the new universal word for taxi.

This might involve them having their own fleet of vehicles in major markets with drivers making $15 an hour.

The present system is only to build the market and won't necessarily be used to maintain the market.


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## homelesswarlock (Dec 20, 2018)

Robot taxis might not even work out the way people envision. By the time ride-share companies have their fleet, every luxury vehicle available to consumers will have the same technology. Subtract rich people from the ride-share equation because driverless tech is not exclusive to ride-share companies. 

Once driverless tech is ubiquitous, people will be able to bum rides from friends and relatives for the price of gas. Uber won’t even get a cut from this.

Driverless technology erases the need for multiple family vehicles; it erases the need for ride-share; and it erases the need for drivers license. No more state troopers and trucks drivers needed. Mount cameras on an autonomous police vehicle and have one cop watch video streams from 10 different cars. Driverless tech changes everything.


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