# Uber --> Day Trading. You know i'm right.



## OldBay (Apr 1, 2019)

Uber into day trading is the perfect progression.

Save 25K living in your car, while you run your simulations. When you have a winning strategy, drive less, invest more. Rags to riches.

Like Uber, only 4% make it at day trading. I need a new drug.

UP is a poor excuse for a water cooler. Cya. Glhf.


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## MadTownUberD (Mar 11, 2017)

You can day trade while sitting in the airport cell phone lot waiting for the unicorn ping into the next state.


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## Z129 (May 30, 2018)

"Like Uber, only 4% make it at day trading. I need a new drug."

Wow, that isn't a promising statistic. So, how do I do day trading?


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## everythingsuber (Sep 29, 2015)

OldBay said:


> Uber into day trading is the perfect progression.
> 
> Save 25K living in your car, while you run your simulations. When you have a winning strategy, drive less, invest more. Rags to riches.
> 
> ...


I've always thought that Uber was the natural progression from day trading.

The mind set that there's a system that predetermines market movement is something I have a problem with. It is something that people that are far more intelligent than me firmly believe and many of them are very close to mastering the art of being a successful day trader. Maybe just one fairly expensive course away?

I think you can make money from the market though blue chip stocks over an extended period of time or though insider trading and that makes sense to me but day traders worry me.


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## doyousensehumor (Apr 13, 2015)

Z129 said:


> "Like Uber, only 4% make it at day trading. I need a new drug."
> 
> Wow, that isn't a promising statistic. So, how do I do day trading?


4% of uber drivers make it to a year! Might be up our alley!


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

OldBay said:


> Uber into day trading is the perfect progression.
> 
> Save 25K living in your car, while you run your simulations. When you have a winning strategy, drive less, invest more. Rags to riches.
> 
> ...


I assume your day trading includes something on the short side of Uber and Lyft.


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## dmoney155 (Jun 12, 2017)

Daytrading is nothing short of a statistical game. Imagine you toss a coin and you bet $1 on one side. If you toss it 1000s (ie over long time) time what are you ending up with? will end up with net 0 since you will lose 50% of the time and win 50% of the time.

Now imagine that you playing same game but here the odds are slightly in your favor, say 55% heads and 44% tails. Now after tossing 1000s of times you will be ahead. 

There is no single strategy that works out each and every time. There will be failures. Idea is to have more success than failures and to have good risk reward ratios, so that if you do fail, you lose little.

You do need hefty account balance in order to play 1000s of times for the statistics to work.


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

dmoney155 said:


> Daytrading is nothing short of a statistical game. Imagine you toss a coin and you bet $1 on one side. If you toss it 1000s (ie over long time) time what are you ending up with? will end up with net 0 since you will lose 50% of the time and win 50% of the time.
> 
> Now imagine that you playing same game but here the odds are slightly in your favor, say 55% heads and 44% tails. Now after tossing 1000s of times you will be ahead.
> 
> ...


Does the coin land on its edge 1% of the time?


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## dmoney155 (Jun 12, 2017)

1.5xorbust said:


> Does the coin land on its edge 1% of the time?


Hehe that's how roulette at the casino work. red vs black are not 50/50 cuz of the green 00 .


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

dmoney155 said:


> Hehe that's how roulette at the casino work. red vs black are not 50/50 cuz of the green 00 .


I was referring to the 55% heads and 44% tails.


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## OldBay (Apr 1, 2019)

1.5xorbust said:


> I was referring to the 55% heads and 44% tails.


When you see a stock moving against what was predicted, you sell.

When you see a stock moving with what was predicted, you ride.

The ability to pull the plug when it moves against you is why you lose slightly less than you make.

Half of trades are still losers, but you lose slightly less than you make.

Day trading doesn't make sense for anyone who is not in the 99th percentile of intelligence and emotional regulation. You have to be able to identify and devise strategies. Unlike a simple game like poker where average people can learn and practice all the strategies, and don't have to devise their own strategies.

Day trading doesn't make sense for aforementioned very intelligent people with traditional careers who are already making six figures. (Day trading has time/work commitments like a real job.) Day trading doesn't "scale" well to larger amounts. Its not for people who want to become millionaires, but for smart people who are looking for an alternate source of income.


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## dmoney155 (Jun 12, 2017)

1.5xorbust said:


> I was referring to the 55% heads and 44% tails.


Oh, no just an example, doesn't have to be a normal coin, typically they call it unfair coin or unfair dice, any system where one outcome has slight edge. Over time of repeated plays the results skew towards that outcome.



OldBay said:


> When you see a stock moving against what was predicted, you sell.
> 
> When you see a stock moving with what was predicted, you ride.
> 
> ...


Yep, gaps fills, Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, momenta, and so on.

One way to make money off the market is to sell calls. I pick volatile companies, that have good fundamentals, so their options will have high implied volatility and over long time they won't go out of business. Then you look for an option that will expire out of the money with a 70% probability and give you some profit after all the commission is factored in. this covers 2 out of 3 outcomes. ie if stocks skyrockets, you get some reward (premium on the sale of the option), if it goes sideways you collect the premium as well. If it drops, you can either sale another option (albeit it will be longer time to expiry if you want to ensure you are not at loss if you get assigned).

eg. Bought 100x GE when it was at 9.24 . Sold $10 call expiring in a month for $11. During the course of the month it went at high as 10.40, so you do lose out on a potential gain should it have close above 10, you only get 10. But either way you would make 76 for stock gain plus 11 for call premium. After a month the price actually dropped to 9.39 . So basically made $11 on 924 dollars investment in a month. That's 1.2% in a month, repeat that for 12 month and you've got 14.2% return.


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## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

OldBay said:


> When you see a stock moving against what was predicted, you sell.
> 
> When you see a stock moving with what was predicted, you ride.
> 
> ...


That was pretty good... I must say...


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## grayrider (Oct 9, 2017)

Top 5 rules of day trading:
1- cut your loss
2-cut your loss
3-cut your loss
4-cut your loss
5-short uber

Much like baseball (and uber) you can survive on base hits, but without that home run every now and again you suck. 

Thank you for your time.


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## doyousensehumor (Apr 13, 2015)

Swing trading seems like there is some potental. I have been learning with a very small account in crypto. I figure the best way to learn is by making mistakes, and if you are going to make mistakes, no point in risking too much. Might learn a new skill. 
It's no joke though, it is easier to loose money than make it


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## Z129 (May 30, 2018)

dmoney155 said:


> Hehe that's how roulette at the casino work. red vs black are not 50/50 cuz of the green 00 .


I tried to work out a mathematical system to win roulette. But short of rigging the wheel or utilizing telekinetic powers there simply isn't one.



dmoney155 said:


> Daytrading is nothing short of a statistical game. Imagine you toss a coin and you bet $1 on one side. If you toss it 1000s (ie over long time) time what are you ending up with? will end up with net 0 since you will lose 50% of the time and win 50% of the time.
> 
> Now imagine that you playing same game but here the odds are slightly in your favor, say 55% heads and 44% tails. Now after tossing 1000s of times you will be ahead.
> 
> ...


I actually used to do this with my friends. We'd flip quarters and I would always pick heads and I won more than I lost no matter who flipped. It has too do with slightly more weight on one side of the coin than the other. Not sure how this holds up with new quarters.


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## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

Z129 said:


> I tried to work out a mathematical system to win roulette. But short of rigging the wheel or utilizing telekinetic powers there simply isn't one.
> 
> 
> I actually used to do this with my friends. We'd flip quarters and I would always pick heads and I won more than I lost no matter who flipped. It has too do with slightly more weight on one side of the coin than the other. Not sure how this holds ups with new quarters.


I heard there used to be a way with Roulette but I think the casinos solved it or it was lore not sure. You would need to wait for the wheel to become ever so slightly imbalanced or a wheel with an imbalance missed in production and you would exploit the slight imbalance.



OldBay said:


> When you see a stock moving against what was predicted, you sell.
> 
> When you see a stock moving with what was predicted, you ride.
> 
> ...


Just one thing about scaling. Why would day trading not scale to larger amounts? I would assume we are talking about large caps with liquidity (going short on restriction might be problematic).

Small caps yes I agree there is a limit to scaling.

Thoughts? @OldBay


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## OldBay (Apr 1, 2019)

michael7227 said:


> I heard here used to be a way with Roulette but I think the casinos solved it or it was lore not sure. You would need to wait for the wheel to become ever so slightly imbalanced or a wheel with an imbalance missed in production and you would exploit the slight imbalance.
> 
> 
> Just one thing about scaling. Why would day trading not scale to larger amounts? I would assume we are talking about large caps with liquidity (going short on restriction might be problematic).
> ...


https://vantagepointtrading.com/why-day-traders-can-make-big-returns-but-arent-millionaires/


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## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

OldBay said:


> https://vantagepointtrading.com/why-day-traders-can-make-big-returns-but-arent-millionaires/


Thanks Ill read this later. Right now it's PRIME TIME! (aint talkin Lyft)

[also thoughts on poker but later]


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## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

Excellent article and comments below. Gives me new perspective on day trading.

Regarding poker I think you need to be slightly above average in intelligence to be consistently profitable in poker as the strategies can be taught but the game evolves and you need to stay somewhat current (more so in tournament). So above average and remaining hungry (enough to study and evolve with the game) I think separate the profitable players from the 90%. Just being average means you are break even/losing.


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## VanGuy (Feb 15, 2019)

I've been considering swing trading because of the time constrictions. I have a day job and can't be focused on the markets all day but a few well placed bets here and there with stops sounds interesting.


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## OldBay (Apr 1, 2019)

michael7227 said:


> Excellent article and comments below. Gives me new perspective on day trading.
> 
> Regarding poker I think you need to be slightly above average in intelligence to be consistently profitable in poker as the strategies can be taught but the game evolves and you need to stay somewhat current (more so in tournament). So above average and remaining hungry (enough to study and evolve with the game) I think separate the profitable players from the 90%. Just being average means you are break even/losing.


A much smaller % of day traders are profitable than poker players. In poker, all you have to do is find a table of bad players, be better than the other people you are sitting with. Not hard to do at low limit tables.

Day traders are competing against the market, not against other players. You can't just find a weak player to beat up on, you have to be objectively good. (I've known some "poker players" and IME, they seem to be deluded about their abilities. Win or lose against the market and you know where you stand.)


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## michael7227 (Oct 29, 2016)

OldBay said:


> A much smaller % of day traders are profitable than poker players. In poker, all you have to do is find a table of bad players, be better than the other people you are sitting with. Not hard to do at low limit tables.
> 
> Day traders are competing against the market, not against other players. You can't just find a weak player to beat up on, you have to be objectively good. (I've known some "poker players" and IME,* they seem to be deluded about their abilities. * Win or lose against the market and you know where you stand.)


They are likely deluded and are not likely beating the game.

Poker is a bit harder than you let on in my opinion and I think the 90/10 rule prevails (I am strictly a tournament player however so my opinion is biased).

Anyway nice article and insight.


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## Releaseone (Jun 4, 2021)

A very interesting comparison and representation of the equivalent of money in such terms.


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## BestInDaWest (Apr 8, 2021)

i dont invest in scam companies. might as well call it ubercoin


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## Disgusted Driver (Jan 9, 2015)

1.5xorbust said:


> I was referring to the 55% heads and 44% tails.


I think you are wasting your time. If someone doesn't understand that the sum of all possible outcome percentages have to be equal to 100% then we probably shouldn't be taking probability/statistical advice from them.


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