# What I predicted about self driving cars 4 years ago



## Stevie The magic Unicorn

https://uberpeople.net/threads/self-driving-cars-and-my-new-prediction.89898/


Mars Troll Number 4 said:


> So i'm going to go out on a limb and compare the self driving car... to the flying car.
> 
> http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/g2021/history-of-flying-car/
> 
> http://www.computerhistory.org/atchm/where-to-a-history-of-autonomous-vehicles/
> 
> What's the difference?
> 
> I see 2 science fiction technologies that have been right around the corner for decades... that some of the biggest companies have sunk billions in, that have yet to materialize, that claim to be "right around the corner"
> 
> There's 4 things that I firmly believe.
> 
> 1. Driving a car is an infinity more complicated task than we realize, the human brain thinks things about far more things than we think that we think, we think. (We contemplate far more than we realize we thought)
> 
> 2. Getting a car to the point it can drive around someone who is "Blackout" drunk is WAY more than 3 years away.
> 3. Machines aren't smart enough to do the most regulated (and deadly) daily task in Western civilization.
> 4. People are too stupid to be trusted with a machine that can "Almost" do the most regulated (And deadly) task in western civilization
> 5. Self driving cars are a pipe dream, every time we think we accomplish it, the real world and stupid people prove just how far away we are.


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## Another Uber Driver

Of the posters to that topic, only Original Poster and the other moderator are still here. The others were last seen November, 2018, October, 2018, Ap[ril, 2018, Novemberf, 2017 and August, 2016.

Original Poster was correct in that the self driving cars were not then, and, are not now even close to regular use. If nothing else, the programmes have been scaled back since 2016.


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## z_z_z_

Another Uber Driver said:


> Of the posters to that topic, only Original Poster and the other moderator are still here. The others were last seen November, 2018, October, 2018, Ap[ril, 2018, Novemberf, 2017 and August, 2016.
> 
> Original Poster was correct in that the self driving cars were not then, and, are not now even close to regular use. If nothing else, the programmes have been scaled back since 2016.


They publicly scaled back to avoid potential legal problems or lawsuits after Uber killed that pedestrian crossing the road BUT...

The technology still exists and is still being developed and will eventually resurface and will be up to the lawyers and politicians to legalize it.

Corporations like Walmart and Amazon do not want to be paying high wages for all their CDL drivers, it will happen eventually.

Unlike flying cars which requires a huge change in infrastructure and would not be operable by your average idiot driver, driverless cars and trucks do not require any human and should not require any major infrastructure change.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> https://uberpeople.net/threads/self-driving-cars-and-my-new-prediction.89898/


MarsTrollNumber4 is the new name my old account got changed to,

That's me...


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## backstreets-trans

Yesterday there was a great article on autonomous vehicles pivoting away from robotaxis to more lucrative pursuits.

"The sector is experiencing "autonomous disillusionment", says Prescott Watson, principal at Maniv Mobility, an early-stage venture capital firm. Now, "the pitch is, 'robotaxis are a pipe dream', but let's take this technology to do something more lucrative," he adds. "

https://www.ft.com/content/96d3eeff-7f52-46e3-a8a8-aeb668472034


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn

I do think automous highway driving will be viable.

But I don’t think it will effect trucking as much as people think. You will still have to have a driver for the non highway parts.

but what I think it could do is massively increase the number of miles truckers put in on the road and eventually remove the 12 hour limit that’s currently in place.

What would happen if there’s an accident and you need to reroute 50 SD trucks off the highway and take surface streets around to get on the next ramp back on the highway.

I mean... if you have owner operator truckers taking loads they can get in more miles a day/week and get more money, while still being backup for inclement weather heavy traffic ect.

The big companies on the other hand could run them 24/7 and have the truckers eat/sleep while the trucks are on the highway and cut cross country trips in half or more in great weather.

Even with a half working highway only system this could be a huge improvement.

Or the systems could be so expensive and unreliable that they never achieve the title of “practical”.


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## Banger

Interesting. but still out of line.


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## Amos69

z_z_z_ said:


> They publicly scaled back to avoid potential legal problems or lawsuits after Uber killed that pedestrian crossing the road BUT...
> 
> The technology still exists and is still being developed and will eventually resurface and will be up to the lawyers and politicians to legalize it.
> 
> Corporations like Walmart and Amazon do not want to be paying high wages for all their CDL drivers, it will happen eventually.
> 
> Unlike flying cars which requires a huge change in infrastructure and would not be operable by your average idiot driver, driverless cars and trucks do not require any human and should not require any major infrastructure change.


They are not close, There is no way forward with current technology. Infrastructure and humans are radical outliers that cannot be predicted. All companies are waiting for an AI to figure out what humans cannot. If an AI can figure out some new technology to move forward it would still take 5-10 years of testing this new technology.

We are still a ways off. 10-20 years.


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## iheartuber

z_z_z_ said:


> They publicly scaled back to avoid potential legal problems or lawsuits after Uber killed that pedestrian crossing the road BUT...
> 
> The technology still exists and is still being developed and will eventually resurface and will be up to the lawyers and politicians to legalize it.
> 
> Corporations like Walmart and Amazon do not want to be paying high wages for all their CDL drivers, it will happen eventually.
> 
> Unlike flying cars which requires a huge change in infrastructure and would not be operable by your average idiot driver, driverless cars and trucks do not require any human and should not require any major infrastructure change.


If you think you can replace CDL drivers with machines in an attempt to save money while completely forgetting to take into account exactly how much money it costs to maintain a vehicle, let alone one with expensive software installed... then you must be a special kind of stupid.


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## z_z_z_

iheartuber said:


> If you think you can replace CDL drivers with machines in an attempt to save money while completely forgetting to take into account exactly how much money it costs to maintain a vehicle, let alone one with expensive software installed... then you must be a special kind of stupid.


Vehicle cost is way less than human cost stupid, and a self driving truck drives 3x more than a human, running 24/7/365

Not to mention you stupidly forget that whether a human or AI is driving the truck the company still pays for the truck and maintains it...



Amos69 said:


> They are not close, There is no way forward with current technology. Infrastructure and humans are radical outliers that cannot be predicted. All companies are waiting for an AI to figure out what humans cannot. If an AI can figure out some new technology to move forward it would still take 5-10 years of testing this new technology.
> 
> We are still a ways off. 10-20 years.


10 years is nothing, if you're under 40 that means it will hit before you are even close to retirement age


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## The Entomologist

You didn't predict that my friend, when the forums first opened this sub forum, I was the one who predicted their fail with a ton of reasoning behind it.


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## tohunt4me

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> MarsTrollNumber4 is the new name my old account got changed to,
> 
> That's me...


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## observer

Another Uber Driver said:


> Of the posters to that topic, only Original Poster and the other moderator are still here. The others were last seen November, 2018, October, 2018, Ap[ril, 2018, Novemberf, 2017 and August, 2016.
> 
> Original Poster was correct in that the self driving cars were not then, and, are not now even close to regular use. If nothing else, the programmes have been scaled back since 2016.


Maybe not 3-4 years.


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## ng4ever

Self driving cars won't happen until 50 to 100 years from now. We will all be dead mostly.


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