# Investors Unfazed by Uber Missteps - Valuation now at $40B



## DCUberXGrrrl (Aug 25, 2014)

*Investors unfazed by Uber missteps*

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-unfazed-by-uber-missteps-153329387.html

Seems like the management of super-powered transport startup Uber has been bumbling and fumbling lately, doesn't it? But not on Wall Street, where investors are reportedly lining up to add more than $1 billion to Uber's coffers in a deal that will value the company at as much as $40 billion,Bloomberg reports.

That's a staggering valuation for a private company, topped only by Facebook's (FB) 2011 fundraising round that valued the social network at $50 billion the year before it went public.

Potential investors, including two leading mutual fund companies, T. Rowe Price (TROW) and Fidelity Investments, haven't been scared off by the well-publicized missteps. Buzzfeed reported last week that Uber Senior Vice President Emil Michael was threatening to investigate a journalist. A couple of other writers have reported that Uber executives apparently tracked their personal use of the service. And The Verge highlighted that Uber alleged efforts to sabotage competitor Lyft.

Still, there is no evidence yet that the bad press has risen to the level where mainstream consumers have noticed. Uber moved to contain the damage, with Michael issuing an apology, CEO Travis Kalanick condemning the remarks and the company deciding to hire outside lawyers to review its privacy practices.

And, despite battles with local taxi regulators in some cities, Uber's market opportunity still looks immense. The company is able to harvest great intelligence about future expansion because current customers open the Uber app in new cities as they travel. That helps Uber read the future and estimate where demand will be strongest.

*Related:* 'A national embarrassment': U.S. infrastructure suffers from bipartisan failure

That future includes not just point-to-point passenger rides, but also potentially other kinds of local delivery services.

There is "a very good chance" that Uber could become a dominant delivery service for groceries, packages and other items, displacing various efforts by companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) to develop separate services, independent analyst Ben Thompson noted this week.

"More likely, Uber will become the delivery network of choice for an ecosystem of same-day delivery retailers," Thompson wrote. "Needless to say, that will be a lucrative position to be in, and it will only do good things for Uber's liquidity."

*Related:* We're in an auto bubble: Here's how to play it

Uber will use the additional capital raised to fuel even faster expansion, as many attribute its market leading position to its speed in entering new markets and quickly expanding service to 220 cities around the world. The company last raised money in June, collecting $1.2 billion at a valuation of $17 billion from a group of investors led by Fidelity.

Investors see large, private tech companies as among the best bets for high growth while many public tech companies struggle to stay relevant and grow at all. Fidelity and T. Rowe, in particular, have used venture capital investments to bolster returns for their funds, as well as gaining an edge in buying more shares when the companies eventually do go public.


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## DjTim (Oct 18, 2014)

Good article. For comparison, let's look at Facebook, because they are listed above and it's a good story so far. When FB went public in May of 2013, their stock opened at $32 and didn't go anywhere until July of 2014. It was plain and simple "Overvaluation" of a tech/social media company. Similar to tech stocks of the late 90's. Right when the tech bubble burst, people were just building websites and putting a 500 million dollar price tag on them, thinking someone would just swoop in and buy them out. 

Facebook had to show to the public they were even worth the 32 dollars a share. Why is Facebook even worth the $70.70 as of close on Friday? Data mining and advertising revenue. The public sees Facebook as a social media platform, while investors see Facebook as ad dollars and a social marketing website. 

What I predict will happen with Uber is almost the same thing. Yes there is some value in the algorithms that they use for pricing rides (surge/non-surge). Sure there's a good platform for tracking drivers and riders BUT UPS/Fedex has been doing this for packages for the last decade. Uber will need to move into reverse marketing, selling ads, selling other services to prove that their customer base is worth that 17, 20, 40 billion dollar value. 

When you look at how Facebook became so dominant over My Space, Google+ and other social media sites, it's the monetization of it's customers. They turned their users into the product. This is what Uber will need to do. If they don't, they will be valued like any other transportation company, and the risks and cost of regulation will hit them so hard, they will have the same issues that DHL and all the other small carriers have. That will drop the bottom out of that 40 billion dollar valuation so fast, it will make the investors move to something safer.


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

Let me ask you a couple of questions....

Exactly what is happening at Uber that doesn't happen in virtually all major companies on a daily basis? 

What is it that the investors know about business that the rest of the general public doesn't know that makes them so confident that they are willing to invest millions upon millions of dollars in Uber and Lyft?

If, as some say here, that Uber is screwed, has horrible management, people running it who have no idea how to run a multi billion dollar company, is going to crash and burn in the end, is gonna get their ass handed to them by any number of lawsuits or drivers or unions or add any of the other multitudes of silly predictions and accusations you want here.....why are they expanding their business and literally doubling their value so quickly?

There are many more but let's start with these. 

Anyone feel free to answer.


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## DjTim (Oct 18, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> Let me ask you a couple of questions....
> 
> Exactly what is happening at Uber that doesn't happen in virtually all major companies on a daily basis?
> 
> ...


Most the of the valuation is around their customer base. The other half is around their technology. Technology has a finite value, or shelf life. The customer base is worth much more, the data mining around that is where the bucks are at.

Look at Google. Not much has changed in the "search" industry. Index a bunch of websites, get the "right" return on asking a question. Google is now Ad-revenue, and add on top of that their algorithms to get the right answer at the right time to deliver that ad, you are now worth $550 a share. I used Google as an example - they have MUCH more in their stable around products - but it's their primary ad revenue that is used to calculate their worth.


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

Agreed. But don't let google hear ya say that about their search engine. LOL!

But none of the question have been answered. And they are easily answered because the answers are so obvious.


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## DCUberXGrrrl (Aug 25, 2014)

Thanks for this great insight! I'm scared b/c Fidelity is so big into Uber, and I'm heavily invested with Fidelity!


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

DCUberXGrrrl said:


> Thanks for this great insight! I'm scared b/c Fidelity is so big into Uber, and I'm heavily invested with Fidelity!


Yea. Considering the dot com collapse years ago...savings and loans before that...the recent real estate and banking scandals..( talk about an example of people not seeing the over all picture) ...it is reasonable to worry.


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## DjTim (Oct 18, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> Yea. Considering the dot com collapse years ago...savings and loans before that...the recent real estate and banking scandals..( talk about an example of people not seeing the over all picture) ...it is reasonable to worry.


Morgan Stanley has a large chunk of investment as well. One thing to remember, the financial institutions have risk pools, generally around mutual funds and stuff. I personally don't know how Fidelity handles their investments and how they assign risk categories.

I'm not saying that Fidelity has a major risk, but they may value Uber as high risk, and have that money set aside for a loss incase they don't fully fund or not go public.


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## grUBBER (Sep 11, 2014)

When every investment idea is a proven failure, let's park the money in a short term gig that wasn't analyzed yet to avoid criticism


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

DCUberXGrrrl said:


> Thanks for this great insight! I'm scared b/c Fidelity is so big into Uber, and I'm heavily invested with Fidelity!


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## centralFLFuber (Nov 21, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> why are they expanding their business and literally doubling their value so quickly?
> 
> There are many more but let's start with these.
> 
> Anyone feel free to answer.


pump & dump .... also banks & investment funds getting into this is worrying...its like another stock market bubble crash & burn

also now YOUR deposits in banks are NO longer currency/money since the latest G20 meeting....Your deposits R now listed as "investment securities" subject to bank bailins .....SEE Greece


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

centralFLFuber said:


> pump & dump .... also banks & investment funds getting into this is worrying...its like another stock market bubble crash & burn
> 
> also now YOUR deposits in banks are NO longer currency/money since the latest G20 meeting....Your deposits R now listed as "investment securities" subject to bank bailins .....SEE Greece


I don't know what yer getting at here but...if you think the G20 controls US banking laws then you might also want to look into that whole UN controls the new world order thing to.


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## centralFLFuber (Nov 21, 2014)

HERE U GO...Have a READ http://investmentwatchblog.com/nov-...-bank-deposits-on-par-with-paper-investments/


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## DjTim (Oct 18, 2014)

centralFLFuber said:


> HERE U GO...Have a READ http://investmentwatchblog.com/nov-...-bank-deposits-on-par-with-paper-investments/


I took a look-see. It's about UK Banks. This has nothing to do with US banks and the FDIC.


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

centralFLFuber said:


> HERE U GO...Have a READ http://investmentwatchblog.com/nov-...-bank-deposits-on-par-with-paper-investments/


Yea....good luck with that.

You should meet one of my neighbors. He believes in these things also.


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

DjTim said:


> I took a look-see. It's about UK Banks. This has nothing to do with US banks and the FDIC.


Shush. Don't pop his ballon.


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## centralFLFuber (Nov 21, 2014)

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2014/11/warning-bank-deposits-will-soon-no.html

Last I checked wasn't the US ONE of the G20 Nations


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## John W (Sep 17, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> If, as some say here, that Uber is screwed, has horrible management, people running it who have no idea how to run a multi billion dollar company, is going to crash and burn in the end, is gonna get their ass handed to them by any number of lawsuits or drivers or unions or add any of the other multitudes of silly predictions and accusations you want here.....why are they expanding their business and literally doubling their value.


That's an easy one... SCOUR.COM owner Travis Kalanick... Sued by the FTC for $250 BILLION.
Result... Filed bankruptcy. Never paid a dime of that fine..

A better question would be... Why is UBER still borrowing any money at all?
After 5-years, the company still has NOT become self efficient.. Maybe something to look forward to in the future? Probably not.
An investment in any company is a debt for that company. The investor is expecting to get their money back and hopefully a bit more. Don't think UBER has that same intention..


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

John W said:


> That's an easy one... SCOUR.COM owner Travis Kalanick... Sued by the FTC for $250 BILLION.
> Result... Filed bankruptcy. Never paid a dime of that fine..
> 
> A better question would be... Why is UBER still borrowing any money at all?
> ...


Ok...and again...how is that different from that happening to others in big business? How many times has aTrump business declared bankruptcy?

Same with the borrowing....again how,is that any different?

You aren't really providing any answers here. Both things you described happen all the time.


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## SupaJ (Aug 12, 2014)

John W said:


> That's an easy one... SCOUR.COM owner Travis Kalanick... Sued by the FTC for $250 BILLION.
> Result... Filed bankruptcy. Never paid a dime of that fine..
> 
> A better question would be... Why is UBER still borrowing any money at all?
> ...


Stick to driving. Leave finance questions to.... other ppl... smarter ones.


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## John W (Sep 17, 2014)

SupaJ said:


> Stick to driving. Leave finance questions to.... other ppl... smarter ones.


Sure no problem would never lower myself to that position to be ... A CAB DRIVER.

What will ultimately bring down UBER... What brought SCOUR.COM DOWN... ETHICS..

http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/18/technology/uber-unethical-peter-thiel/index.html


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

John W said:


> Sure no problem would never lower myself to that position to be ... A CAB DRIVER.
> 
> What will ultimately bring down UBER... What brought SCOUR.COM DOWN... ETHICS..
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/18/technology/uber-unethical-peter-thiel/index.html


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.........he just denigrated cab drivers.....


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## John W (Sep 17, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.........he just denigrated cab drivers.....


Yeah sure did.
You going to answer the question or just keep shooting your mouth off?
*Why after 5-years is UBER still needing to borrow billions of dollars to operate? *
Not a good sign.. Don't need to have a PhD in economics to see that..


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

John W said:


> Yeah sure did.
> You going to answer the question or just keep shooting your mouth off?
> *Why after 5-years is UBER still needing to borrow billions of dollars to operate? *
> Not a good sign.. Don't need to have a PhD in economics to see that..


Uh...yea...actually I did. Huge companies do this all the time. Evidently you don't know much about how the corporate world works.

It would also seem the investors don't agree with you. They seem to have several billion dollars in confidence in Uber.

But I bet you know more than they do. What multi billion dollar business do you run and who is investing in it?


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## centralFLFuber (Nov 21, 2014)

i think fluber might good at designing apps/software...not so good at running "taxicab/transportation co. I dont think uberX will survive long term...but their delivery app or resale rights of it might have a long term existence....as far as a $40B valuation....wow so very very overvalued...pump & dump imho


What ASSETS do they OWN to be Worth/Valued so much....dont see NO driverless cars yet?


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

John W said:


> Why after 5-years is UBER still needing to borrow billions of dollars to operate?


You will not get a straight answer from @UL Driver SF . He is here only as an UberShill#1. He goes about doing this by using misdirection, evasion & deflection.

*Uber's Next Billion-Dollar Financing Could Be A Convertible Debt Round*

*http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/08/uber-mo-money/*

_"We've also heard there's the possibility of Uber using the financing to provide some liquidity to early investors. To date Uber has been stingy about allowing early employees and investors to cash out as its valuation has reached news heights."_


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## John W (Sep 17, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> Uh...yea...actually I did. Huge companies do this all the time. Evidently you don't know much about how the corporate world works.
> 
> It would also seem the investors don't agree with you. They seem to have several billion dollars in confidence in Uber.
> 
> But I bet you know more than they do. What multi billion dollar business do you run and who is investing in it?


Me investing NOPE. 
Ok give up. Gave you ample opportunity To answer the question. 
Here it is... From Business Insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-is-losing-money-on-every-uberx-ride-2014-7
Revelation.... Uber loses money ON EVERY TRIP WITH UBERX.
There you go.. UBER is in business to BORROW Investor's money. 
If the investor ever gets their money... Who cares. 
UBER has shown the upmost integrity and ethics when dealing with their drivers and customers.
Why should the investors be any different.


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

centralFLFuber said:


> i think fluber might good at designing apps/software...not so good at running "taxicab/transportation co. I dont think uberX will survive long term...but their delivery app or resale rights of it might have a long term existence....as far as a $40B valuation....wow so very very overvalued...pump & dump imho
> 
> What ASSETS do they OWN to be Worth/Valued so much....dont see NO driverless cars yet?


In ca you won't see driverless cars until the law changes. You also have to change the laws to make it a viable anti DUI platform also. Right now the laws for both and how they have to be changed are in severe conflict. This one will be a challenge.


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

John W said:


> Me investing NOPE.
> Ok give up. Gave you ample opportunity To answer the question.
> Here it is... From Business Insider
> http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-is-losing-money-on-every-uberx-ride-2014-7
> ...


Awwww....I can see it bugs you that not only did I answer the question but even proved you wrong with the investors.

What billion dollar company do you run again? And who asked you to invest with Uber? I didn't and I doubt they need yer money also.

Did you know Home Depot loses money on every skill sidewinder saw they sell? Along with a number of other tools they sell? Hmmm....are ya gonna tell me they are poorly managed and are going out of business now?

Did you know that Lowes finances inventory they buy?

Again...feel free to prove the billion dollar investors are wrong...and you are right. So far you have failed at this. Maybe it's starting to get to you.

BTW....I like how you see chi cabby as lesser than you. LOL!!


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## centralFLFuber (Nov 21, 2014)

Lowes finances inventory....ASSETS things one can see, hold, buy, sell, 

WHAT ASSETS does FLuber have??? a f*cking software app that can be replaced by a better software app!


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

centralFLFuber said:


> Lowes finances inventory....ASSETS things one can see, hold, buy, sell,
> 
> WHAT ASSETS does FLuber have??? a f*cking software app that can be replaced by a better software app!


Yup...you are absolutely right. So where is it? Why is another billion dollars being thrown at Uber alone? Why are they expanding at such a rate? Hmmmm.....they are even an international company.

The most important question is....why do none of the investors....people with more money and experience than you or I...disagreeing with you?

I know....it kills you that Uber, Lyft, et al are doing well. Will it make you feel better if we give you a cookie?


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## John W (Sep 17, 2014)

Just because a company has a certain valuation or endless investors does not mean that they immune from failure.
Just a few examples,
Pan Am, DeLorean Motor Company, Commodore Computers, Pets.com, Bethlehem Steel, Polaroid let's not forget the crown jewel...ENRON. Thousands of others.
Each of these companies failed for various reasons, some were highly invested but yet still failed. But the results were the same...
The fact is 50% of companies fail in the first 5-years.


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## centralFLFuber (Nov 21, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> Yup...you are absolutely right. So where is it? Why is another billion dollars being thrown at Uber alone? Why are they expanding at such a rate? Hmmmm.....they are even an international company.
> 
> The most important question is....why do none of the investors....people with more money and experience than you or I...disagreeing with you?


cuz thats what companies like goldman sucks & jpmorgan chase & hedge funds do....privatize the profits...socialize the losses....they will invest pump it up as high as it can go...then when its ipo is put up on stock market Joe sixpack invests...then it collapes...joe sixpack loses his shirt and the banks/hedge funds have long since cashed out....fluber ..the next enron


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

John W said:


> Just because a company has a certain valuation or endless investors does not mean that they immune from failure.
> Just a few examples,
> Pan Am, DeLorean Motor Company, Commodore Computers, Pets.com, Bethlehem Steel, Polaroid let's not forget the crown jewel...ENRON. Thousands of others.
> Each of these companies failed for various reasons, some were highly invested but yet still failed. But the results were the same...
> The fact is 50% of companies fail in the first 5-years.


Awwww...look at you. You named some companies that failed. LOL!!!

So yer still prattling on about knowing more than the people running and investing in this company yet have....nothing.

Keep trying. We all will keep laughing at you.


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

centralFLFuber said:


> cuz thats what companies like goldman sucks & jpmorgan chase & hedge funds do....privatize the profits...socialize the losses....they will invest pump it up as high as it can go...then when its ipo is put up on stock market Joe sixpack invests...then it collapes...joe sixpack loses his shirt and the banks/hedge funds have long since cashed out....fluber ..the next enron


And you think those companies pioneered that idea?

Come on. I know it burns you is that they are doing well. Why does it bother you so much? I mean I know you want them to fail and think they will. What happens when they don't? Are ya gonna go the anti apple route where for years all the pros said Apple was on the brink of extinction yet....here they are. Bigger and better than ever.

Again...tell us all what you know that they don't. I'd love to see it. In fact very one would. You could burn down that house of cards and become famous over night.


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## John W (Sep 17, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> Awwww...look at you. You named some companies that failed. LOL!!!
> 
> So yer still prattling on about knowing more than the people running and investing in this company yet have....nothing.
> 
> Keep trying. We all will keep laughing at you.


Well good for you keep laughing.. It's all you've got left...


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## loki (Nov 28, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> What is it that the investors know about business that the rest of the general public doesn't know that makes them so confident that they are willing to invest millions upon millions of dollars in Uber and Lyft?


They aren't necessarily investing because they think the business model is good they are investing because of the gains at the IPO where many of the investors will cash out and exit. Just like Facebook. The reason for the demand is many missed Facebook and aren't going to want to potentially miss this. There is no justification for the value other than the potential for a big IPO. The operations of the business aren't generating that kind of revenue. This is an IPO play. And it's going to be a big IPO, likely record setting. Once it hits the market and needs to turn a profit and dividend shareholders will be much more concerned about how the company is run rather than how high the valuation might be.


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## loki (Nov 28, 2014)

DjTim said:


> Most the of the valuation is around their customer base. The other half is around their technology. Technology has a finite value, or shelf life. The customer base is worth much more, the data mining around that is where the bucks are at.


See post above. It's got nothing to do with the customers or the technology and everything to do with getting in now and cashing out at the IPO. There aren't enough customers and the technology isn't specail enough to justify that sort of investment. Facebook and Google data is much more valuable to a marketer.


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## loki (Nov 28, 2014)

centralFLFuber said:


> http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2014/11/warning-bank-deposits-will-soon-no.html
> 
> Last I checked wasn't the US ONE of the G20 Nations


The reports at those two sites have their tinfoil a bit too tight. What's happening is what has been happening here for a while. The assests of accounts that are over the insurance cap are going to be dealt with as if they were a creditor of the bank and not a guaranteed deposit. For example in the US the FDIC only covers the first $250k of the deposits of each account. https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/covered/categories.html

Big, big money isn't covered by the FDIC and one would have to be a pretty poor money manager to keep that much cash in an over the counter bank account.

Here is an account of the situation from a credible news source...
http://www.afr.com/p/markets/small_step_for_leap_for_tbtf_banks_ZLrMJCNOG4jNty1KOD9KRP

_



On another note, there are some potential unintended consequences. According to Zero Hedge, independent analyst Russell Napier declared Sunday November 26, 2014, as the day money died.

The G20 confirmed that uninsured bank deposits are just part of commercial banks' capital structure, and also that they are far from the most senior portion of that structure.

This leads to the logical conclusion that following a bank failure, a bank deposit is no longer money in the way a banknote is.

As Zero Hedge noted: "Large deposits at banks are no longer money, as this legislation will formally push them down through the capital structure to a position of material capital risk in any 'failing' institution. In our last financial crisis, deposits were de facto guaranteed by the state, but from November 16 holders of large-scale deposits will be, both de facto and de jure, just another creditor squabbling over their share of the assets of a failed bank."

Indeed we saw this situation arise in Cyprus, but it now appears that this will be enshrined in the regulatory framework.

The solution is to either spread your deposits as far as necessary so that they remain under the government deposit guarantee or just stuff your cash under the mattress.

Click to expand...

_


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## DjTim (Oct 18, 2014)

loki said:


> See post above. It's got nothing to do with the customers or the technology and everything to do with getting in now and cashing out at the IPO. There aren't enough customers and the technology isn't specail enough to justify that sort of investment. Facebook and Google data is much more valuable to a marketer.


I think you may be thinking that the customer base is only in the US. They are a world wide company. We don't even know what their customer count is. If you have financial companies like Morgan Stanley, TPG (Google private VC firm), Black Rock, Fidelity, Kleiner Perkins, Wellington Partners & Benchmark are all investing pre IPO, you bet your bippy they are doing their due-diligence. These companies own ARMIES of people who just sit in a room and look at companies to fund. Oh - and what do most of the financial companies above have in common? All purchased into Facebook pre-IPO. 3 of them are currently funding Tesla. TPG funds and then buys companies for Google.

And I think you are right about the tech versus customers. Tech is always a small thing when you look at a company. The PEOPLE - oh sweet jesus the people, they are the big dollar signs. "sign up here with Hilton, and get $20 dollar Uber credit" " Sign up here at Delta, American Airlines or United to get $20 dollar Uber credits" "Sign up at Bed Bath & Beyond and get a $20 dollar Uber credit" As I said before, when you turn people into your product like Google has - then you are making some bank.


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## loki (Nov 28, 2014)

It's not about the customer data. There is little there that could be mined for any great benefit outside of how they use Uber. And that's not worth $40bil.


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

*Report: Uber seeks hundreds of millions from Goldman Sachs investors*

*http://m.bizjournals.com/sanjose/ne...+industry_14+(Industry+Legal+Services)&r=full*


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## UL Driver SF (Aug 29, 2014)

loki said:


> It's not about the customer data. There is little there that could be mined for any great benefit outside of how they use Uber. And that's not worth $40bil.


I don't think there is much with customer data either.

Fact is people with a shit load of money know far more about what they are doing with it than we do. Banking on an IPO is pretty risky. Just ask those from the dot com era.

If you listen to some on here Uber is just days away from collapsing. If there was a fart in the wind in Siberia that hinted Uber was in trouble the money would dry up in the blink of an eye.


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## DjTim (Oct 18, 2014)

loki said:


> It's not about the customer data. There is little there that could be mined for any great benefit outside of how they use Uber. And that's not worth $40bil.


Actually, your wrong. You can't look at what the rider "has" or information they have, it's around traffic & where the people are going. First thing that any brick and mortar store does, a traffic survey. How many cars drive past their store front.

Let's extrapolate that out - How many people, between the age of 18 and 30 have been dropped off at X mall or X address in the last X days. After a sporting event, How many people between the age of 18 & 30 go from X stadium to X bar address. How many people drive past this sign at street X and Y.

Using that formula above, and digital billboards or e-mail & text marketing - you could influence people by sending a text or changing your digital billboards after a sporting event to drive traffic to "Ed's Sports bar", or after a circus show drive people to go to "Rainforest Cafe".

This is how you turn people into your product. You sell your data to marketing companies. Geo-location is already happening with Google Wallet. A few times I get a notice that "Hey - Walgreens has a 2 for 1 special for water 200 feet on the right" If you seriously don't think that will happen with Uber - then you are way out of touch with what is happening in the tech sector.


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## loki (Nov 28, 2014)

DjTim said:


> Actually, your wrong. You can't look at what the rider "has" or information they have, it's around traffic & where the people are going. First thing that any brick and mortar store does, a traffic survey. How many cars drive past their store front.
> 
> Let's extrapolate that out - How many people, between the age of 18 and 30 have been dropped off at X mall or X address in the last X days. After a sporting event, How many people between the age of 18 & 30 go from X stadium to X bar address. How many people drive past this sign at street X and Y.
> 
> ...


The data to which you refer isn't worth that kind of money. The sample set is too small and there are other key demographics that Uber does not provide. Add to the fact that in most markets in the US most people are still driving. Facebook and Google provide far more comprehensive data than Uber. At this point geo location is going to other services that are more life encompassing. Tracking a cab ride isn't near enough info compared to what they can get in the other 23 hours that are in a day.


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## loki (Nov 28, 2014)

UL Driver SF said:


> I don't think there is much with customer data either.
> 
> Fact is people with a shit load of money know far more about what they are doing with it than we do. Banking on an IPO is pretty risky. Just ask those from the dot com era.
> 
> If you listen to some on here Uber is just days away from collapsing. If there was a fart in the wind in Siberia that hinted Uber was in trouble the money would dry up in the blink of an eye.


The Uber IPO will be a slam dunk as long as they don't hit any major legal snags. No one outside the inner circle of investors and large instituionals are going to benefit. The real test will be what happens after the IPO and if Kalanick can run a business that provides a good return on investment rather than an IPO exit strategy. My guess would be they'll bring in adult supervision. It's going to be a crowded space particularly once more places open up regs and some of the early hurdles are managed.


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

*Here's Why Investors Think Uber Is Worth More Than Netflix And Twitter*
By Salvador Rodriguez

http://www.ibtimes.com/heres-why-in...-netflix-twitter-1731523#.VHzm9NTiKY4.twitter


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## Piotrowski (Sep 9, 2014)

Wow, such brilliance in this thread! Yeah... Uber has no assets! lol It's their book that worth who knows what. In the real world there is what is known as customer acquisition costs. When I worked for one company they had it down to the penny. It was 82 dollar and something cents. When we bought out a smaller competitor it was to get their book. They were able to buy this company out for about $50 per customer. Immediately after buying it they liquidated everything that company physically owned for pennies on the dollar and converted those customer into our system. Right now the investors are looking at those customer acquisition costs,, which is costing Uber who knows how many millions per week to keep getting them. This huge influx of cash is why a company like this can grow inorganically. A normal company can not spend like this, but these SV startups can, and have the hyper-growth that comes with it.

As for the invested money, it's all risk capital. At different levels there are different levels of risk vs rewards. At the IPO level the risk level is much much lower but so is the reward. At the Angel investment level who knows, the risk of losing 100% of the money might be as high as 95%, by the reward level is off the charts. For those guys they might have a 10 to 1 of even higher standard in play. IOW, they might figure that 9 of the 10 will go bust, but the one that doesn't could make them a 10,000% return.

What's exciting to investors is where this API can go, and DJTim hinted at it. What you guys are not seeing it what Uber has been able to do with that in a way that has never been done before. This is all still so beta but will come from when this is able to mature will be something, it will be able to bring an efficiency that no one will be able to touch, at least that's the promise of it. My only regret is I'm not an investor, (I'm missing a dreaded zero or two that I need to be at that level) but I like seeing it from the ground level as that's the only level I can, and it's part of why I'm involved.


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## Piotrowski (Sep 9, 2014)

loki said:


> The Uber IPO will be a slam dunk as long as they don't hit any major legal snags. No one outside the inner circle of investors and large instituionals are going to benefit. The real test will be what happens after the IPO and if Kalanick can run a business that provides a good return on investment rather than an IPO exit strategy. My guess would be they'll bring in adult supervision. It's going to be a crowded space particularly once more places open up regs and some of the early hurdles are managed.


First unlike with Zuckerberg, Kalnick only controls a minority stake. Facebook is unlike a lot of companies it's size as Zuckerberg structured it in such as way that he can not be outvoted on the BoD, in part because the public stock is a non-voting class. Kalanick never would have been able to raise the kind of money they needed and still be able to maintain that level of control. Once this does go public (if it ever does) I'm not sure how long he would remain as CEO. If he wants a huge payday from this he'd have to give up even more of his ownership, and I think he would want the billions in cash so he can buy the planes and stuff that he can't now. I''d be surprised if at the end of the day that he would own, and control, more than 10% of it.


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## DjTim (Oct 18, 2014)

Piotrowski said:


> First unlike with Zuckerberg, Kalnick only controls a minority stake. Facebook is unlike a lot of companies it's size as Zuckerberg structured it in such as way that he can not be outvoted on the BoD, in part because the public stock is a non-voting class. Kalanick never would have been able to raise the kind of money they needed and still be able to maintain that level of control. Once this does go public (if it ever does) I'm not sure how long he would remain as CEO. If he wants a huge payday from this he'd have to give up even more of his ownership, and I think he would want the billions in cash so he can buy the planes and stuff that he can't now. I''d be surprised if at the end of the day that he would own, and control, more than 10% of it.


I could see Kalanick and others being retained as directors or something on the board, but not C-level. I hope a good transition plan is laid out when they go IPO. It would be hard for me to invest if this guy is still running things when they go public.


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## Lidman (Nov 13, 2014)

Hmm. Maybe Warren Buffett will buy a huge chunk of the UGER stock.


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## pengduck (Sep 26, 2014)

loki said:


> The Uber IPO will be a slam dunk as long as they don't hit any major legal snags. No one outside the inner circle of investors and large instituionals are going to benefit. The real test will be what happens after the IPO and if Kalanick can run a business that provides a good return on investment rather than an IPO exit strategy. My guess would be they'll bring in adult supervision. It's going to be a crowded space particularly once more places open up regs and some of the early hurdles are managed.


Maybe when he needs a good ROI he will raise the rates back up. (With hands folded in prayer.)


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## Lidman (Nov 13, 2014)

Gordon Gekko "likes this". Greed is good. Greed is right.


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## loki (Nov 28, 2014)

Piotrowski said:


> First unlike with Zuckerberg, Kalnick only controls a minority stake. Facebook is unlike a lot of companies it's size as Zuckerberg structured it in such as way that he can not be outvoted on the BoD, in part because the public stock is a non-voting class. Kalanick never would have been able to raise the kind of money they needed and still be able to maintain that level of control. Once this does go public (if it ever does) I'm not sure how long he would remain as CEO. If he wants a huge payday from this he'd have to give up even more of his ownership, and I think he would want the billions in cash so he can buy the planes and stuff that he can't now. I''d be surprised if at the end of the day that he would own, and control, more than 10% of it.


I'm surprised the Sand Hill Road crowd hasn't snagged you by now...


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## centralFLFuber (Nov 21, 2014)

TRAVIS SAYS "We want to get to the point that _*using Uber is cheaper than owning a car*_," Kalanick said in a recent interview with Vanity Fair. "Transportation that's as reliable as running water."

 Yeah Travis...but its the DRIVERS that OWN the Cars! WTF we need to be able to pay for ALL Expenses & Earn a decent livable wage...Does this guy not get that without his "Partners" he has Nothing....


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