# Elon Musk is still not taken seriously



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Experts' dismissal of Tesla's Full Self Driving push proves Elon Musk is still not taken seriously

"The cars they are building will never be Level 5, period. It's nonsense. He needs to shut up until he can deliver something. The premise of making highly automated systems on cameras alone is fundamentally flawed. Their approach to software doing end-to-end AI systems is almost certainly not going to work. I don't believe it can work. AI is too brittle," he said.



> https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-fsd-is-absurd-experts/


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## losiglow (Dec 4, 2018)

Announcements of SDC progress is entirely done for raising stock prices. 

But on the flipside, I think Elon is the frickin man. The advancements he's pushing in the tech sector are amazing. If we left it up to the government or other big corporations it would probably take 5x longer. I wish all billionaires used their money like he has. It's technology that's going to solve many of the worlds problems such as climate issues, hunger and poverty.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

losiglow said:


> Announcements of SDC progress is entirely done for raising stock prices.
> 
> But on the flipside, I think Elon is the frickin man. The advancements he's pushing in the tech sector are amazing. If we left it up to the government or other big corporations it would probably take 5x longer. I wish all billionaires used their money like he has. It's technology that's going to solve many of the worlds problems such as climate issues, hunger and poverty.


Elon is a genius... TSLA company and the stock has no correlation. Elon gets to to cash in his stock options because of TSLA manipulation , trailing avg stock price triggers it. He needs $$$ for his main project, that would be SpaceX and Mars. Short value $ is high but not the interest. TSLA has less than 200 million shares and 70% is in strong hands. 
Actual shares float is way low, lower the shares better the manipulation ability.

TSLA as a company will never make enough money to justify the stock price. What if tomorrow Ford sells 100,000 E vehicles ? Should they be worth 75 billion dollars ? No reason to short TSLA , find other stocks and short them. It might go down after the earnings but as long as the interest rate is low, Robinhood vegans in the mix, Billionaires just playing the mkt because of boredom, TSLA will be dangerous.


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## Launchpad McQuack (Jan 8, 2019)

Who is John Galt? said:


> The cars they are building will never be Level 5, period. It's nonsense.


Never is a long time. I believe we will get there eventually, I just don't see it happening in the next year or two.

Part of the reason why I don't take Musk's claim that they will achieve Level 5 autonomy within the next year seriously is because, every time that there is a horrific accident involving a Tesla in auto-pilot mode, Musk's explanation for what went wrong is, "No comment." I would really like to know what is going wrong with these systems that is causing them to plow into stationary objects at nearly full speed. If they are really that close to Level 5 autonomy, then this problem should be solved already. If this problem has been solved already, why is it not deployed in the cars that are on the road? It just doesn't add up. He claims that they will achieve Level 5 autonomy by the end of the year, but they don't even have a Level-3 autonomous system that is commercially available. So he's telling us that they are going to jump straight from Level 2 to Level 5? I just don't buy it. It smells like hype.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

_I think-I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year," Musk said at the 2020 WAIC._

This statement is nonsense. As in, it makes no sense. It's like a woman saying, "I believe I will have the basic conditions for pregnancy complete this year". Either a woman is pregnant or she is not. Cars are either level 5 or they are not - there is no having "basic functionality for level 5". It's gobbledegook.

I'm surprised that Tesla had not been investigated for fraud over its SDC claims. He's selling cars with "Autopilot", claiming that all it will take to get them to full SDC capability is a software update. "Buy full SDC now, pay now, and we will send it to you free when it's ready".

This isn't very different from selling a teletransportation machine. "The hardware's ready... all it will take to get it working is a software update, which will be ready very soon. Buy now, pay now and I'll send you the update to get it working for free later". This would be blatant fraud.


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## losiglow (Dec 4, 2018)

I'm convinced that road infrastructure will be necessary for level 5.

I'm sure they've thought about it already but you simply can't rely on road lines. They can be covered up or absent altogether. Then you have construction zones. That's a mess. Especially here in Utah. Construction is everywhere.

Thing is, I really like Elon. I think he'll go down as one of the most influential people in history. But why he keeps spouting the level 5 SDC's is beyond me. He's a genius. He can't really believe that can he? Especially since he's been saying it for around 5 years now. I'm still convinced it's for publicity and stock price manipulation.

BTW, OP, Atlas Shrugged is a masterpiece. If everyone understood that book we wouldn't be dealing with most of the political crap we are today.


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## _Tron_ (Feb 9, 2020)

Despite appearances, I don't think anything Musk does is geared toward gaming the stock price. It wasn't that long ago when he commented that the stock price was too high. And he admonishes employees to not pay attention to the stock price. Musk works lower on the food chain. In my view he cares most about the core vision (the Master Plan). He works toward that end, pushing the tech... and then everything else naturally follows. He's not even the showman people thinks he is. He is a shy, awkward, stuttering (not an affectation) technoid whose natural enthusiasm about his work pushes him to show himself in public and bubble over about where he wants Tesla to go. And in his excitement to share his vision he often gets ahead of himself. A common trait among geniuses according to author Melissa Schilling, who wrote a book on the commonality of innovators who changed the world entitled Quirky.

I have followed Musk from shortly after the Model 3 was announced in 2016, reading and watching everything on the man I could get my hands on. Of all the technologies he has gotten ahead of himself on, Full Self Driving (FSD) is clearly the one Elon is most off the mark on. There is not a single idea, vision, product or service that Tesla has announced that I am not all-in on. Except, FSD. Lines or no lines, I think that neural nets, machine learning, big data, and fast processors will not be enough. Cars will have to be able to nearly _think_ to drive themselves. To reason. That's AI. _True_ AI. It seems we are decades away from that.

An AI expert I spoke with once who used to work for Musk guessed that we are 50 years away.

When all cars on the road are self-drivers then maybe FSD can work. Maybe. In the meantime we're in for a hell of a transition.

(Also, I am often worng)


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Who is John Galt? said:


> Experts' dismissal of Tesla's Full Self Driving push proves Elon Musk is still not taken seriously
> 
> "The cars they are building will never be Level 5, period. It's nonsense. He needs to shut up until he can deliver something. The premise of making highly automated systems on cameras alone is fundamentally flawed. Their approach to software doing end-to-end AI systems is almost certainly not going to work. I don't believe it can work. AI is too brittle," he said.


THEY WILL BE LEGAL ON MARS !

MARS.

GO TO MARS ELON !


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## Launchpad McQuack (Jan 8, 2019)

losiglow said:


> I'm convinced that road infrastructure will be necessary for level 5.


If road infrastructure is necessary, is it Level 5? The definition of Level 5 is that the car can drive anywhere, under any conditions, without human assistance. So what does "anywhere" and "under any conditions" mean? It seems like a silly question at first. Obviously, "anywhere" means anywhere and "under any conditions" means under any conditions, but if you stop and think about it, it isn't as silly as it first seems. Lets say that we're in the midst of a nasty blizzard and visibility is near zero and the roads are icy and slick. If the car can't self drive in those conditions, does that mean that it fails the "under any condtions" part of the definition since it can't drive under these terrible conditions. I think anybody would argue that is not a reasonable standard as most humans would be unable to drive safely in these conditions as well. So "under any conditions" doesn't _really_ mean under any conditions. There are obviously going to be some conditions under which the car can't drive.

This is the way I generally interpret the definition of Level 5. The car can drive anywhere (that a reasonably competent human driver could drive), under any conditions (that a reasonably competent human driver could drive in), without human assistance. The stuff in parentheses is kind of a clarification of the definitions of "anywhere" and "under any conditions." This is my own interpretation, so it is not necessarily set in stone as _the_ interpretation. There is some wiggle room here. But the question is this. If the car requires special road infrastructure in order to self drive, does it meet the definition of Level 5 autonomy? I would argue no. Humans are capable of driving without that special infrastructure, so requiring it as a condition for self driving limits the areas or conditions under which the car can drive. Thus, it is Level 4 and not Level 5.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

mbd said:


> Elon is a genius... TSLA company and the stock has no correlation. Elon gets to to cash in his stock options because of TSLA manipulation , trailing avg stock price triggers it. He needs $$$ for his main project, that would be SpaceX and Mars. Short value $ is high but not the interest. TSLA has less than 200 million shares and 70% is in strong hands.
> Actual shares float is way low, lower the shares better the manipulation ability.
> 
> TSLA as a company will never make enough money to justify the stock price. What if tomorrow Ford sells 100,000 E vehicles ? Should they be worth 75 billion dollars ? No reason to short TSLA , find other stocks and short them. It might go down after the earnings but as long as the interest rate is low, Robinhood vegans in the mix, Billionaires just playing the mkt because of boredom, TSLA will be dangerous.


Elon is a mad genius.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

If lvl 5 happens, then many many jobs will vanish for sure. Lvl 5 is a human .:thumbup:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/macdai...omous-vehicles-%E2%80%8Awill-never-exist/amp/


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

mbd said:


> If lvl 5 happens, then many many jobs will vanish for sure. Lvl 5 is a human .:thumbup:
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/macdai...omous-vehicles-%E2%80%8Awill-never-exist/amp/


It's good to see Waymo admit what some of us have been saying for years.

*But Waymo's CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control-usually called a "level five" autonomous vehicle-will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journal's D.Live conference, Krafcik said that "autonomy will always have constraints."*


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

goneubering said:


> It's good to see Waymo admit what some of us have been saying for years.
> 
> *But Waymo's CEO, John Krafcik, has admitted that a self-driving car that can drive in any condition, on any road, without ever needing a human to take control-usually called a "level five" autonomous vehicle-will basically never exist. At the Wall Street Journal's D.Live conference, Krafcik said that "autonomy will always have constraints."*


Fully autonomous Robotaxi is a carrot dangled by Elon to get a higher multiple. You will have 1 million Robotaxis on the road by 2020.
2020 is almost 7 months gone, and I cannot find the first Robotaxi&#128512;at least they have moved the carrot backwards 5 years.


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