# GET REAL



## UpoorPeople (Apr 13, 2017)

So we all know that we need to get smart in this game.

And probably most have had the experience of sitting in the middle of a 2.0X surge and getting a 2.0X surge request - but it's 8 minutes away: "_What do I do? Should I accept before the surge ends? But if I don't accept maybe I'll get a better one just 2 minutes away!"_

From a net profit point of view, a 2.0X 8 min. away isn't the same as a 2.0X 2 min. away, is it?

So I got to wondering if it's possible to come up with a quick rough equation to help with that split-second decision making when the ping is running down. For example, if each minute away roughly equals .5 of a rate point, then a 2.0X 8 min. away is actually a 1.6X ride. A 2.0X 2 min. away is a 1.8X ride, and so forth.

This would also help to drill home to all drivers that we're always making less than the "rate", and that when we accept non-surge requests many minutes away, we might be making _nothing_, or even _losing_ money. So, in the example above, a 1.0X request 10 min away would actually be a .5X ride. This could help us, or me at least, to always keep it real and play this vampire casino with a clearer head.

I do realize that this equation would be wildly variable based on your market, car make and model, depreciation, traffic, terrain etc. but I wonder if anyone good at math could come up with even just a _ballpark_ rule of thumb for "number of minutes away" equalling "number of rate points" for Uber X? Any thoughts?


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## ZeeDreamLife (Apr 21, 2017)

A 2.0 surge is a 2.0 surge. Take it and be happy. It's a 2.0 surge regardless of how far you have to drive to pick them up- as long as they're in the surge area too. It's their ride distance and time that depends on the price. 

Take it and be happy.


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## UpoorPeople (Apr 13, 2017)

You miss the point entirely. 

Thanks for playing. Next...


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## Disgusted Driver (Jan 9, 2015)

It does vary widely per person and market but I also think surge is somewhat irrelevant. It's more about what do dead miles cost you? In essence you are asking:

Profit per trip = revenue for trip - (miles driven on trip + dead miles to pax) * cost per mile. So essentially you are asking how much am I losing to get to the pax which is just dead miles * cost per mile.

If you want to really understand, take your last 100 trips, figure out the average fare you received for each trip, figure out the average distance and figure out what your cost per mile to operate your vehicle. In my case, I've come up with .24 cents per mile. My average trip is about 10.75 (I drive select) and that represents 5.5 miles. So on an average trip with no pick up mileage I make: 10.75- 5.5*.24= 9.43. Each mile that I drive to get to my pax is roughly a 2.5% reduction in income.


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## UpoorPeople (Apr 13, 2017)

That's certainly helpful. But since I never know how much I'm going to make on a particular ride I was just thinking there might be an angle to look at the cost in terms of portions of the rate as way to decide whether to accept it or not (without having to pull out a calculator). See, the surge system is clearly psychological and designed to overide our rational mind (see the first reply in this thread!). It works on our reward pathways, like a video game or a slot machine. Having a quick way to knock the surge rate down a few notches would overide the psychological manipulation. Ultimately, I guess I'd need to do those same calculations.


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## Disgusted Driver (Jan 9, 2015)

You never will know about a particular ride till after you pick them up and see the destination. That's why I go with averages. It is reasonable for me to assume that every single one of my trips is going to be $10.75 and 5.5 miles. Sometimes it's more, sometimes it's less but it evens out over the long haul.

I can give you a really simple rule of thumb, if you are doing X, you probably should drive more than about 8 minutes or 4 miles away to get a pax. (and time is important to me as well). If you are in a surge area you'll get a closer ping. But more than 8 min. 4 miles, you've already put more than $2.00 into the call (a dollar for time, a dollar for mileage) If the ping is 10 minutes and 8 miles away, you are about $3.50 in the hole before you even start.

I should mention that your area might be different. If you are in a rural area, trips will be longer on average so you can afford slightly more up front cost.


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## swingset (Feb 26, 2017)

Without making it an equation (which would only matter to my market/car/gas consumption and how busy it is), I've pretty much figured out that anything over 7 minutes away is, on average, not worth taking. Thankfully, with working busy areas/weekend, I seldom get pings more than 5 minutes away.

Surge, I've found, is only reliable at bar closing and almost universally not worth chasing or concerning myself with. Scrambling to be in it wastes more time and gas than if I just work and make my money. So, for me, it's easy...take the ride if it's close, surge be damned. The only time I even worry about rates is 1:30-2:30 am and I try to stick closer to the closing bars.


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## UpoorPeople (Apr 13, 2017)

Makes sense. My situation is different. I've decided this gig ain't worth hours of my life and my vehicle's depreciation unless it's surge _AND_ it's close. Which means yes, I don't drive a lot. But that doesn't mean I chase surges. I don't. I live downtown where it surges weekday mornings and afternoons and some evenings. I don't do late night. Even so, I'll often be sitting in the middle of red all round me and get surge pings 8 minutes away which brings me to this question.


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## circle1 (Sep 17, 2016)

UpoorPeople said:


> So we all know that we need to get smart in this game.
> 
> And probably most have had the experience of sitting in the middle of a 2.0X surge and getting a 2.0X surge request - but it's 8 minutes away: "_What do I do? Should I accept before the surge ends? But if I don't accept maybe I'll get a better one just 2 minutes away!"_
> 
> ...


We need more drivers like you on this board! [I'm serious] 



UpoorPeople said:


> That's certainly helpful. But since I never know how much I'm going to make on a particular ride I was just thinking there might be an angle to look at the cost in terms of portions of the rate as way to decide whether to accept it or not (without having to pull out a calculator). See, the surge system is clearly psychological and designed to overide our rational mind (see the first reply in this thread!). It works on our reward pathways, like a video game or a slot machine. Having a quick way to knock the surge rate down a few notches would overide the psychological manipulation. Ultimately, I guess I'd need to do those same calculations.


Maybe take Disgusted Driver's Formula and plug it in with the appropriate surge multiplier?


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## kdyrpr (Apr 23, 2016)

ZeeDreamLife said:


> A 2.0 surge is a 2.0 surge. Take it and be happy. It's a 2.0 surge regardless of how far you have to drive to pick them up- as long as they're in the surge area too. It's their ride distance and time that depends on the price.
> 
> Take it and be happy.


Destination destination destination. It's a roll of the dice only your swiping.


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## UpoorPeople (Apr 13, 2017)

circle1 said:


> We need more drivers like you on this board! [I'm serious]


Thanks. 


circle1 said:


> Maybe take Disgusted Driver's Formula and plug it in with the appropriate surge multiplier?


Might have to do that.


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## JJS (Jan 5, 2016)

I use the destination filter and know when the conditions are right for me to take a ride. For my market and preferences i take the following: 
1, Plus or Xl. 
2. Regular rides will have a minimum of 100%
3. Line rides 150%

Add the filter and you are making money.


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## UpoorPeople (Apr 13, 2017)

But you only have 2 destinations per day like me right?


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## SurgeWarrior (Jun 18, 2016)

UpoorPeople said:


> So we all know that we need to get smart in this game.
> 
> And probably most have had the experience of sitting in the middle of a 2.0X surge and getting a 2.0X surge request - but it's 8 minutes away: "_What do I do? Should I accept before the surge ends? But if I don't accept maybe I'll get a better one just 2 minutes away!"_
> 
> ...


Stop looking at it as a some golden calf..at 2x its still cheaper than a taxi..do you normally drive 8 minutes away? I wont anymore..i say skip it and the next time it comes around maybe its a 4x.


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## Side Hustle (Mar 2, 2017)

I've noticed recently if you ignore a request further away you get another ping soon after much closer. It's like Uber is baiting you to see if you will bite on the earlier ping.

Having said that, I will say you guys are way to math heavy for me. LOL. I use a simple rule of thumb. No further than 8 minutes away (less if it is busy) and no pax less than a 4.6. Ever. PAx must be higher than 4.67 if it's busy. 

Exception for 5.0 pax. I will drive to get them, say up to 12 minutes. The are either great people or tip or both. Although on occasion there are just Noobs.

Surge LOL. I sat in the middle of a 5.0 before and no ping. If it happens, it happens Sometimes it does. But no racing to catch the leprechaun.


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## circle1 (Sep 17, 2016)

Side Hustle said:


> Surge LOL. I sat in the middle of a 5.0 before and no ping. If it happens, it happens Sometimes it does. But no racing to catch the leprechaun.


Have you tried the trick of logging off then driving into middle, then logging on?


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## UpoorPeople (Apr 13, 2017)

circle1 said:


> Have you tried the trick of logging off then driving into middle, then logging on?


Yeah, I do thus all the time even when I'm already in the middle but the surge is less than 2.0. I only drive into surhed if I'm sitting right next to one.


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