# what won't self driving cars be able to do.



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Will they be able to detect vomit or trash in the car. if a door is not closed properly will it be able to close it, what else?


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## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

The best self driveing is a taxi. Tell them where to go and thats it. Too much BS for these SDVs


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> Will they be able to detect vomit or trash in the car. if a door is not closed properly will it be able to close it, what else?


All of those things are easily solved.

Trash and vomit could be detected automatically by comparing before and after ride interior images.


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> All of those things are easily solved.
> 
> Trash and vomit could be detected automatically by comparing before and after ride interior images.


Thank you for the business idea. Each SDC used for taxi duty will not only need a standard dash cam, but it will need cameras and lighting to look down on the seats and floors. And maybe a drone to circle the car looking for out the window on the side of the car vomit and vandalism.


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

WeirdBob said:


> Thank you for the business idea. Each SDC used for taxi duty will not only need a standard dash cam, but it will need cameras and lighting to look down on the seats and floors. And maybe a drone to circle the car looking for out the window on the side of the car vomit and vandalism.


And someone to examine these images, another person to recall the car and a third person to clean up the mess. Yep, replacing the driver will save a ton of money.


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## backstreets-trans (Aug 16, 2015)

Who's going to wake up the drunk passenger who passed out on the way home. I've had many that were so drunk I had to carry them to the door. Uber will soon find out that SDV's will be more expensive to operate.


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## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

backstreets-trans said:


> Who's going to wake up the drunk passenger who passed out on the way home. I've had many that were so drunk I had to carry them to the door. Uber will soon find out that SDV's will be more expensive to operate.


They will discover this the moment they put one car on the road unsupervised.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

backstreets-trans said:


> Who's going to wake up the drunk passenger who passed out on the way home. I've had many that were so drunk I had to carry them to the door. Uber will soon find out that SDV's will be more expensive to operate.


Another easily fixed technical problem. Like an annoying alarm clock too far away to turn off, an increasingly loud and annoying sound is followed by a polite request to exit the vehicle, wait 10 seconds and repeat.

A technical solution using today's technology is available for each and every potential issue cited in this thread. The problem is that each "solution" increases the cost of the SDV, decreasing profit. At what point does this become prohibitively expensive to operate compared to having a human driver? Will those costs decrease over time, making an SDV with all these extra features less expensive to operate compared to having a human driver? Probably.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Jagent said:


> And someone to examine these images, another person to recall the car and a third person to clean up the mess. Yep, replacing the driver will save a ton of money.


Computers can examine the images in a fraction of a second and forward any it finds as a probably issue. Messes can become a profit center.

The entire cleaning process can be automated. Undo a few snap downs, a wire harness, push the interior onto a conveyer and push a new one in.


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## Gung-Ho (Jun 2, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Computers can examine the images in a fraction of a second and forward any it finds as a probably issue. Messes can become a profit center.
> 
> The entire cleaning process can be automated. Undo a few snap downs, a wire harness, push the interior onto a conveyer and push a new one in.


Then we're not talking plush leather seat interiors. You're saying sdc interiors are going to be as comfortable and stylish as a city bus seat. No thanks.


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> Computers can examine the images in a fraction of a second and forward any it finds as a probably issue. Messes can become a profit center.
> 
> The entire cleaning process can be automated. Undo a few snap downs, a wire harness, push the interior onto a conveyer and push a new one in.


Nice dream. Seats have to be bolted in place. Crash standards and all that you know.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Gung-Ho said:


> Then we're not talking plush leather seat interiors. You're saying sdc interiors are going to be as comfortable and stylish as a city bus seat. No thanks.


No, we aren't talking plush leather seats. We're talking glorified electric golf carts at first for short trips in urban areas most likely.



Jagent said:


> Nice dream. Seats have to be bolted in place. Crash standards and all that you know.


Low speed small electric vehicles have different standards.


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## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> Computers can examine the images in a fraction of a second and forward any it finds as a probably issue. Messes can become a profit center.
> 
> The entire cleaning process can be automated. Undo a few snap downs, a wire harness, push the interior onto a conveyer and push a new one in.


Could you imagine more power outages and internet shut downs like whats happened in san fran today?

More people are wakeing up and wanting to have more freedom for ourselves except the elites are pulling the string by controling markets.

You think people like waiting around? I dont wich is why i got a vehical.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Jermin8r89 said:


> Could you imagine more power outages and internet shut downs like whats happened in san fran today?
> 
> More people are wakeing up and wanting to have more freedom for ourselves except the elites are pulling the string by controling markets.
> 
> You think people like waiting around? I dont wich is why i got a vehical.


Waymo's SDCs are self contained. They don't need connectivity to function.

Backup generators for charging. Problem solved. It's not like gas pumps work without power anyways.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

backstreets-trans said:


> Who's going to wake up the drunk passenger who passed out on the way home. I've had many that were so drunk I had to carry them to the door. Uber will soon find out that SDV's will be more expensive to operate.


Self driving beds. 



Jermin8r89 said:


> Could you imagine more power outages and internet shut downs like whats happened in san fran today?
> 
> More people are wakeing up and wanting to have more freedom for ourselves except the elites are pulling the string by controling markets.
> 
> You think people like waiting around? I dont wich is why i got a vehical.


Just wait for an outage and a car stranded in the middle of the road and the locks won't unlock to let the pax out.


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## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> Waymo's SDCs are self contained. They don't need connectivity to function.
> 
> Backup generators for charging. Problem solved. It's not like gas pumps work without power anyways.


They can still get hacked. Im hearing more and more hacks happening all the time now.

So whos over looking the system? Google? A company thats doing almost every illegal thing you can think of? Nope would rather drive myself and if i have to then ill take a taxi.


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## backstreets-trans (Aug 16, 2015)

Or when a customer closes the door on the seat belt stuck in between keeping the door from closing. The car can't move with an opened door.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

backstreets-trans said:


> Or when a customer closes the door on the seat belt stuck in between keeping the door from closing. The car can't move with an opened door.


Unless the SDC is programmed to "encourage" excessively slow passengers by starting to inch forward, especially if one foot is still out of the door. Cannot have some teenage prankster holding up a SDC for hours with a piece of wood jamming the door open. That would cut into profits. Don't worry! The SDC will stop before doing anything that Uber can be successfully sued for.


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## Loomis24 (Nov 28, 2016)

Won't happen in our lifetime! I can't even imagine what a pax would do in a driverless car, given what they do with a driver! I have brought this up with riders when they ask me. They always say a o God I never even thought of that! Them I tell them your ride didn't get clean by accident...... The driver does it everyday


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Loomis24 said:


> Won't happen in our lifetime! I can't even imagine what a pax would do in a driverless car, given what they do with a driver! I have brought this up with riders when they ask me. They always say a o God I never even thought of that! Them I tell them your ride didn't get clean by accident...... The driver does it everyday


What "Won't happen in our lifetime"?

The average PAX is less likely to do any kind of intentional vandalism, knowing that everything they do is being recorded and they will be charged repairs and/or cleanup fees. Anything the automated cleaning function of an SDC cannot handle will require that it be routed to a facility for human maintenance, at an additional charge to the PAX. Hackers and those with enough experience to use stolen or untraceable prepaid credit cards along with disguises to hide their identities are a bigger challenge, but one that can also be addressed.


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## Loomis24 (Nov 28, 2016)

Maven said:


> What "Won't happen in our lifetime"?
> 
> The average PAX is less likely to do any kind of intentional vandalism, knowing that everything they do is being recorded and they will be charged repairs and/or cleanup fees. Anything the automated cleaning function of an SDC cannot handle will require that it be routed to a facility for human maintenance, at an additional charge to the PAX. Hackers and those with enough experience to use stolen or untraceable prepaid credit cards along with disguises to hide their identities are a bigger challenge, but one that can also be addressed.


I stand corrected, won't happen in my lifetime.


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

backstreets-trans said:


> Who's going to wake up the drunk passenger who passed out on the way home. I've had many that were so drunk I had to carry them to the door. Uber will soon find out that SDV's will be more expensive to operate.


Perhaps the technological advances Uber is making for Autonomous UberEats can also be implemented for UberWasted


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Lee239 said:


> Will they be able to detect vomit or trash in the car. if a door is not closed properly will it be able to close it, what else?


Take directions from traffic cops, when needed ( such as in large parking areas, concerts, where cones are moved often, requiring traffic personell ).

they won't be able to talk to riders, when they can't find them, and vice versa. They might come up with a texting solution, but it will be more cumbersome for the rider. Or, they might have a telephone number for the rider to call for a remote technician to redirect the machine, I dont' know how they are going to deal with it,

If someone leaves something in the backseat, what happens then?

There are probably many things that will crop up, the variables are endless.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> Will they be able to detect vomit or trash in the car. if a door is not closed properly will it be able to close it, what else?


Where i work you often have to insert your car into crowds . especially crossing intersections with Bourbon Street.
You must time and adjust your car movements with the human flow.

A self driving car would sit there until it ran out of gas.
The sensors would only see obstacles which never stopped or yielded.
There is no way Robo Cars can do what i do.
Will NEVER HAPPEN !

They ignore all traffic crossing pedestrian signals also.
Bicycle, walk, skateboard down center of roads and in traffic.
Busses take breaks in travel lanes.
Busses and taxis triple park in front of major hotels and load luggage in travel lanes.
Horse and buggys, street cars, pedi cabs ignoring all traffic laws.
Its like driving in another country.
No one is sober.
90 cents a mile.
18 cents a minute
Minus 25%
NO NEED TO TIP !

Have you ever had to cancel because YOU were stuck behind a horse and buggy wreck ? I have.

Would You have the self control to not floor it in center of crowd of running shrieking people if shoot out broke out by your car and it was trapped in a crowd ?

Uber pretends our job is simple.

It is not.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

tohunt4me said:


> Where i work you often have to insert your car into crowds . especially crossing intersections with Bourbon Street.
> You must time and adjust your car movements with the human flow.
> 
> A self driving car would sit there until it ran out of gas.
> ...


How and when to be "more aggressive" is one of the more difficult problems of self-driving software. Obviously, excessively sitting in one spot while more aggressive human drivers move is not acceptable. All the situations you mention and more need to be considered. The programming would also need to adapt to changing conditions, variations from city to city, time of day, weather, etc. Work is currently in progress, but there is no realistic estimate for completion. I imagine that priority will be given to cities which are the most likely introductory markets for self-driving cars.


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## Rat (Mar 6, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> All of those things are easily solved.
> 
> Trash and vomit could be detected automatically by comparing before and after ride interior images.


Will they be able to detect poop? Because I plan to do that in there



Maven said:


> What "Won't happen in our lifetime"?
> 
> The average PAX is less likely to do any kind of intentional vandalism, knowing that everything they do is being recorded and they will be charged repairs and/or cleanup fees. Anything the automated cleaning function of an SDC cannot handle will require that it be routed to a facility for human maintenance, at an additional charge to the PAX. Hackers and those with enough experience to use stolen or untraceable prepaid credit cards along with disguises to hide their identities are a bigger challenge, but one that can also be addressed.


It will not be legal to photograph pax


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Rat said:


> Will they be able to detect poop? Because I plan to do that in there. It will not be legal to photograph pax


Yes, they be able to detect poop, trash, vomit, etc. Expect the cleanup fee added to your bill. When possible, the matter will be referred to the police.

You're partially correct, you will not be photographed, that's so 19th century. In most states, it is legal for you to be videotaped, which will be used as evidence against you in any subsequent legal proceeding. Expect a clearly visible sign stating in multiple languages that everything you do is being recorded, both inside the car and in the immediate vicinity outside then car. You will implicitly agree to being recorded, by contract, when requesting the ride.


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

Maven said:


> Yes, they be able to detect poop, trash, vomit, etc. Expect the cleanup fee added to your bill. When possible, the matter will be referred to the police.
> 
> You're partially correct, you will not be photographed, that's so 19th century. In most states, it is legal for you to be videotaped, which will be used as evidence against you in any subsequent legal proceeding. Expect a clearly visible sign stating in multiple languages that everything you do is being recorded, both inside the car and in the immediate vicinity outside then car. You will implicitly agree to being recorded, by contract, when requesting the ride.


That'll work great. I'm sure that no one will think of wearing a mask.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jagent said:


> That'll work great. I'm sure that no one will think of wearing a mask.


Nothing is full-proof against an intelligent, well-financed, determined attacker, but those are rare. In addition to a mask, you should have gloves (for fingerprint), a full body suit (hair, skin, for DNA analysis), and use an untraceable credit card. Oh and somebody else's poop since that can also be used for DNA sampling. Even doing all that may not work if the SDC uses the mask as evidence of a suspicious, undesirable rider and refuses you access. See
https://uberpeople.net/threads/screen-before-entry.173884/


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

Maven said:


> Nothing is full-proof against an intelligent, well-financed, determined attacker, but those are rare. In addition to a mask, you should have gloves (for fingerprint), a full body suit (hair, skin, for DNA analysis), and use an untraceable credit card. Oh and somebody else's poop since that can also be used for DNA sampling. Even doing all that may not work if the SDC uses the mask as evidence of a suspicious, undesirable rider and refuses you access. See
> https://uberpeople.net/threads/screen-before-entry.173884/


Ahhh... DNA?... cool. So, this magical self driving robot will have cameras, a self cleaning interior, a dna database and sampling equipment, and it'll dispatch a police robot to arrest vandals, and then give them a ride to the jail. And this is all coming our way in 6 months? Cool. Thanks for the heads up.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jagent said:


> Ahhh... DNA?... cool. So, this magical self driving robot will have cameras, a self cleaning interior, a dna database and sampling equipment, and it'll dispatch a police robot to arrest vandals, and then give them a ride to the jail. And this is all coming our way in 6 months? Cool. Thanks for the heads up.


Like you, I was going to the logical, if impractical, extreme. I agree with your satirical response. I do not expect any of the measures that I mentioned to be part of the initial release, except possibly the video recording. There are plenty of more important technical and political issues with SDCs that need to be addressed first. However, if there is a significant amount of vandalism against the expensive SDCs once they are in service (whenever that is) then additional defensive measures become cost-effective. My personal favorite is


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

Personally, I'm still waiting on the smart stoplights they promised us 20 years ago. You know, stoplights that can tell there isn't another car within 5 miles, so there's no reason to turn red?


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jagent said:


> Personally, I'm still waiting on the smart stoplights they promised us 20 years ago. You know, stoplights that can tell there isn't another car within 5 miles, so there's no reason to turn red?


Yeah, I know exactly what you mean.  My own pet peeve is rolling up on a "No Right on Red" light at 2 A.M. that just turned red, which takes 3-5 minutes or more to change back to green.


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## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

Maven said:


> Yeah, I know exactly what you mean.  My own pet peeve is rolling up on a "No Right on Red" light at 2 A.M. that just turned red, which takes 3-5 minutes or more to change back to green.


With all the complaining about wasted energy, pollution, carbon, etc., we still have traffic control devices from 1950. I wish I had the money for every ounce of gas I've wasted sitting at a desolate red light.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jagent said:


> With all the complaining about wasted energy, pollution, carbon, etc., we still have traffic control devices from 1950. I wish I had the money for every ounce of gas I've wasted sitting at a desolate red light.


If there was some way for the city/town/etc. to earn additional tax revenues then it would have been done years ago. Not enough people are motivated sufficiently to make it an issue with the elected representatives. Even if you were to shoot them out with your trusty rifle, they would be replaced with the same antiquated equipment. There is more interest in 
*Speed Sensitive Signals*
Some agencies have installed innovative traffic control measures, such as speed sensitive traffic signals, to reduce motor vehicle speeds. These devices involve using pavement loops to detect the speed of a motor vehicle. If the speed exceeds the speed limit, the traffic signal ahead will display a red light. Drivers learn that speeding on such streets will require them to stop at the traffic signal and be further delayed. This treatment is not applicable to local streets inside neighborhoods that do not have traffic signals, but can be applicable to collector and some arterial streets. Some communities are timing their traffic signals to a preset reasonable speed. Motorists who exceed the preset speed will be stopped at the next traffic signal. Signs with SIGNAL SET AT XX MPH can be installed along the street to alert drivers.


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## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

A driverless car won't be able to tell that the following is wrong,

200 s orange blossom trl

(i'm in front of Walbugers)



Whereas i know that Walburgers is around 200 S orange avenue,
Cause i just know

A self driving car would just go to the address the customer inputed because... when computers are given bad instructions they are still followed, human beings can be creative enough to know that the instructions are wrong.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> A driverless car won't be able to tell that the following is wrong,
> 200 s orange blossom trl (i'm in front of Walbugers). Whereas i know that Walburgers is around 200 S orange avenue, Cause i just know.
> A self driving car would just go to the address the customer inputed because... when computers are given bad instructions they are still followed, human beings can be creative enough to know that the instructions are wrong.


You're partially right, GIGO (Garbage-in, Garbage-out) is a time honored computer programmer axiom. However, consider that an inexperienced driver or one not familiar with the area will likely make the same mistake that you describe today because they lack your experience. It is possible (perhaps not likely) that the software and be trained to "learn" and adapt to common rider mistakes, just as you have.

Another alternative is dynamic negotiation of pickup point. After a rider inputs a pickup point, the computer responds with a different, known, nearby, easily accessible pickup point. If the rider declines then the trip is offered to one of the reduced number of human drivers that are willing to service such requests.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> Waymo's SDCs are self contained. They don't need connectivity to function.
> 
> Backup generators for charging. Problem solved. It's not like gas pumps work without power anyways.


Many times I'm given an addy, like the airport, and the navigator would take me to the wrong place, if I were to follow it.
Big venues, big parking lots, where pick up points change, due to cones, traffic cops directing, etc., what do DLCs do then?

In my city, if I pick up at Terminal one at the San Diego Airport, I have to go into the parking lot, where the rideshare pick up zone is located, and I have to take a parking ticket from the gate machine, the ticket of which as a 10 minute grace period. How does the DFC take a ticket ? When I pull up to the pick up area, there is always a traffic cop directing me where to park, as there are often many cars there, it's always chaotic, and the pick up place is always changing. How do many Uber DFCs deal with this, when there are other competing DFC's and other rideshare companies doing the same thing?

when I pull up to the Marriott Marquis ( one of the largest hotels in San Diego ) there's often backed up cars, in more than one lane, and a valet directs me to move to this lane, or that, depending on the situation that is present, how does a DFC deal with this?

In gated areas, how does a DFC push the code buttons to get in? If I sit and think about this, I could list things like this on and on, there are many situations that will prove very difficult for a DFC.

When I pull up to some gated areas, there is a sentry, who asks me who I'm picking up, ID, etc., how does a DFC deal with this?

Here's another thing that often happens. I arrive at a gated community, drop of passenger deep into the community, and google maps or waze ( since i now have to manually input a destination to lead me out of the labyrinth I'm now in ) takes me to the nearest gate, which is often closed, since many of these communities have more than one gate, but only one is open with a sentry or code machine. This happens all the time in Rancho Santa Fe with gated communities. long winding roads, multiple gates, etc. What does a DFC do then?

Sometimes I have to pick up at a party, with many cars blocking driveways, etc., often I have to call the rider to meet them at an agreed upon point outside, somewhere, this may prove difficult for a DFC.

Sometimes, in Encinitas, there are long windy roads for only one car, and the oncoming car, or the first car that reaches a place to pull over, out of courtesy, does. here, an oncoming car with a driver might not realize the car oncoming is a DFC. What then?

On the freeway, a truck has furniture in it, and a matresses falls on the freeway in front of me, I slow down and change lanes. The mattress is low lying and the color is not is not radically different than the cement highway I'm driving over, can a DFC see it?


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## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> Many times I'm given an addy, like the airport, and the navigator would take me to the wrong place, if I were to follow it.
> Big venues, big parking lots, where pick up points change, due to cones, traffic cops directing, etc., what do DLCs do then?
> 
> In my city, if I pick up at Terminal one at the San Diego Airport, I have to go into the parking lot, where the rideshare pick up zone is located, and I have to take a parking ticket from the gate machine, the ticket of which as a 10 minute grace period. How does the DFC take a ticket ? When I pull up to the pick up area, there is always a traffic cop directing me where to park, as there are often many cars there, it's always chaotic, and the pick up place is always changing. How do many Uber DFCs deal with this, when there are other competing DFC's and other rideshare companies doing the same thing?
> ...


I'd like to know what % of the time the SDCs have to enter manual mode for...

If it's more than .1% (one tenth of 1 %) these cars arn't anywhere near ready for rollout.

Any time a car would need to kick into manual mode that means that it wouldn't be able to continue (it's stuck). If a robot get's stuck and conditions don't change it stays stuck until someone can drive out and get it unstuck. What if it gets stuck in a road that's reduced to one lane for construction?

The first city they roll out 100% autonomous in... that's when we will see how far they have to go.

If a car has to switch into manual mode once an hour you are sending out 20! service trips a day with a human out to gosh knows where, to get a car unstuck. And that's if the car doesn't have an accident or block traffic to the point where the cops (or a pissed off *******) strap a chain to bumper and drag it off the road, causing who knows how much damage to the car.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

WeirdBob said:


> Thank you for the business idea. Each SDC used for taxi duty will not only need a standard dash cam, but it will need cameras and lighting to look down on the seats and floors. And maybe a drone to circle the car looking for out the window on the side of the car vomit and vandalism.


I see tens of thousands being added to the price if these things.
They will look like rolling garbage cans within a year or two.



Oscar Levant said:


> Many times I'm given an addy, like the airport, and the navigator would take me to the wrong place, if I were to follow it.
> Big venues, big parking lots, where pick up points change, due to cones, traffic cops directing, etc., what do DLCs do then?
> 
> In my city, if I pick up at Terminal one at the San Diego Airport, I have to go into the parking lot, where the rideshare pick up zone is located, and I have to take a parking ticket from the gate machine, the ticket of which as a 10 minute grace period. How does the DFC take a ticket ? When I pull up to the pick up area, there is always a traffic cop directing me where to park, as there are often many cars there, it's always chaotic, and the pick up place is always changing. How do many Uber DFCs deal with this, when there are other competing DFC's and other rideshare companies doing the same thing?
> ...


Uber app. Is ALWAYS screwing up !


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## Fuzzyelvis (Dec 7, 2014)

Jagent said:


> Personally, I'm still waiting on the smart stoplights they promised us 20 years ago. You know, stoplights that can tell there isn't another car within 5 miles, so there's no reason to turn red?


I'm still waiting for a self checkout where I don't have to "call for help" every other trip to the supermarket.


Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> I'd like to know what % of the time the SDCs have to enter manual mode for...
> 
> If it's more than .1% (one tenth of 1 %) these cars arn't anywhere near ready for rollout.
> 
> ...


Wasn't it every 0.8 miles? No more long trips. Anyway, Uber prefers short trips.



Maven said:


> You're partially right, GIGO (Garbage-in, Garbage-out) is a time honored computer programmer axiom. However, consider that an inexperienced driver or one not familiar with the area will likely make the same mistake that you describe today because they lack your experience. It is possible (perhaps not likely) that the software and be trained to "learn" and adapt to common rider mistakes, just as you have.
> 
> Another alternative is dynamic negotiation of pickup point. After a rider inputs a pickup point, the computer responds with a different, known, nearby, easily accessible pickup point. If the rider declines then the trip is offered to one of the reduced number of human drivers that are willing to service such requests.


That would make sense in Uber world. Let's let the humans get the tickets picking up at the bus stop instead of Uber.



Maven said:


> What "Won't happen in our lifetime"?
> 
> The average PAX is less likely to do any kind of intentional vandalism, knowing that everything they do is being recorded and they will be charged repairs and/or cleanup fees. Anything the automated cleaning function of an SDC cannot handle will require that it be routed to a facility for human maintenance, at an additional charge to the PAX. Hackers and those with enough experience to use stolen or untraceable prepaid credit cards along with disguises to hide their identities are a bigger challenge, but one that can also be addressed.


Hackers crashing the cars worry me more. Or how about a bomb in a dummy.

"Here's my drunk friend. He's going to Times Square."

Think an SDC will tell if it's a real human?

Boom.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> I'd like to know what % of the time the SDCs have to enter manual mode for...
> 
> If it's more than .1% (one tenth of 1 %) these cars arn't anywhere near ready for rollout.
> 
> ...


What do you mean by "manual mode"? Do you mean you are going to encumber the driver more than they would be encumbered by hiring an Uber with a driver? I don't see it being viable, if that is the case. These things have to be less trouble for a rider, and cheaper, and it doesn't seem like that is possible.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Fuzzyelvis said:


> ...Hackers crashing the cars worry me more. Or how about a bomb in a dummy. "Here's my drunk friend. He's going to Times Square." Think an SDC will tell if it's a real human? Boom.


Hackers targeting a particular SDC will be an issue tomorrow in the same way hackers are an issue for corporate computers today. Similar defenses and countermeasures will be used, which will be more effective because there will be fewer lazy humans involved that refuse to regularly change their password from the easily remembered and hacked, most popular, "password".

A humanoid robot is a pretty complicated, expensive, delivery system for a bomb. To be effective take your queue from IEDs in Afghanistan; simple, cheap, and effective. Also there are many ways to distinguish a robot from a real human including infrared and pulse detection. If the next generation of bomb robots are designed to fool simple tests then more elaborate tests would be designed, starting a never-ending "arms race".


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> Many times I'm given an addy, like the airport, and the navigator would take me to the wrong place, if I were to follow it.
> Big venues, big parking lots, where pick up points change, due to cones, traffic cops directing, etc., what do DLCs do then?


SDCs don't use GPS for driving, they use internal maps. They can also detect cones and be directed by authorities for years now.



Oscar Levant said:


> In my city, if I pick up at Terminal one at the San Diego Airport, I have to go into the parking lot, where the rideshare pick up zone is located, and I have to take a parking ticket from the gate machine, the ticket of which as a 10 minute grace period. How does the DFC take a ticket ? When I pull up to the pick up area, there is always a traffic cop directing me where to park, as there are often many cars there, it's always chaotic, and the pick up place is always changing. How do many Uber DFCs deal with this, when there are other competing DFC's and other rideshare companies doing the same thing?


Do you really think SDCs will be stopped by picking up tickets?



Oscar Levant said:


> when I pull up to the Marriott Marquis ( one of the largest hotels in San Diego ) there's often backed up cars, in more than one lane, and a valet directs me to move to this lane, or that, depending on the situation that is present, how does a DFC deal with this?


They don't. The hotel does or they deal with the backlash.



Oscar Levant said:


> In gated areas, how does a DFC push the code buttons to get in? If I sit and think about this, I could list things like this on and on, there are many situations that will prove very difficult for a DFC.


They don't. The gated community does.



Oscar Levant said:


> When I pull up to some gated areas, there is a sentry, who asks me who I'm picking up, ID, etc., how does a DFC deal with this?


They don't. The security does.



Oscar Levant said:


> Here's another thing that often happens. I arrive at a gated community, drop of passenger deep into the community, and google maps or waze ( since i now have to manually input a destination to lead me out of the labyrinth I'm now in ) takes me to the nearest gate, which is often closed, since many of these communities have more than one gate, but only one is open with a sentry or code machine. This happens all the time in Rancho Santa Fe with gated communities. long winding roads, multiple gates, etc. What does a DFC do then?


They route by an internal map and they learn the days and hours which also teaches every other SDC at the same time.

What people refuse to get is these are all simple fixes.



Oscar Levant said:


> Sometimes I have to pick up at a party, with many cars blocking driveways, etc., often I have to call the rider to meet them at an agreed upon point outside, somewhere, this may prove difficult for a DFC.


Then the SDC will have a designated pickup point. Fixed.



Oscar Levant said:


> Sometimes, in Encinitas, there are long windy roads for only one car, and the oncoming car, or the first car that reaches a place to pull over, out of courtesy, does. here, an oncoming car with a driver might not realize the car oncoming is a DFC. What then?


Same as humans do.



Oscar Levant said:


> On the freeway, a truck has furniture in it, and a matresses falls on the freeway in front of me, I slow down and change lanes. The mattress is low lying and the color is not is not radically different than the cement highway I'm driving over, can a DFC see it?


Yes. Better than you, sooner than you, and it will tell every other SDC so they will adjust sooner than you and other humans ever could.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> I'd like to know what % of the time the SDCs have to enter manual mode for...
> 
> If it's more than .1% (one tenth of 1 %) these cars arn't anywhere near ready for rollout.


You could know if you wanted to. But most skeptics don't want to know. In 2015 Google (Waymo) had zero manual mode for seven months straight.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> If a car has to switch into manual mode once an hour you are sending out 20! service trips a day with a human out to gosh knows where, to get a car unstuck. And that's if the car doesn't have an accident or block traffic to the point where the cops (or a pissed off *******) strap a chain to bumper and drag it off the road, causing who knows how much damage to the car.


Read above. You are relying on imagination and a limited knowledge of how they work.



Fuzzyelvis said:


> Hackers crashing the cars worry me more. Or how about a bomb in a dummy.
> 
> "Here's my drunk friend. He's going to Times Square."
> 
> ...


Ugh, come on. People drive trucks into crowds right now and bombers plant bombs at will.

Call a taxi, leave your bomb in his car, pay him to pick someone up at you target.

There are no new nightmare scenarios for SDCs that don't already exist.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> All of those things are easily solved.
> 
> Trash and vomit could be detected automatically by comparing before and after ride interior images.


True. These are trivial issues. The pax will be on camera the entire time. They will be charged for any damage



Jermin8r89 said:


> The best self driveing is a taxi. Tell them where to go and thats it. Too much BS for these SDVs


With self driving you don't even need to tell the driver where you want to go. You already did that in the app when you requested the ride.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> ... With self driving you don't even need to tell the driver where you want to go. You already did that in the app when you requested the ride.


Today PAX often tell the driver where to go. Some prefer to feel in control. Sometimes the destination may be incorrect or the GPS does not show it properly. Drivers work with the passenger (who may not be the requesting person) to find the correct destination or at least one acceptably close. This may be difficult for an SDC. Any ideas how to simplify?


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Maven said:


> Today PAX often tell the driver where to go. Some prefer to feel in control. Sometimes the destination may be incorrect or the GPS does not show it properly. Drivers work with the passenger (who may not be the requesting person) to find the correct destination or at least one acceptably close. This may be difficult for an SDC. Any ideas how to simplify?


I don't see this as an issue. You put in the app where you want to go and it takes you there. Sure there will be bugs, but they'll get worked out. 99.9 percent of our trips we simply follow the gps to the destination the pax put in.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> I don't see this as an issue. You put in the app where you want to go and it takes you there. Sure there will be bugs, but they'll get worked out. 99.9 percent of our trips we simply follow the gps to the destination the pax put in.


I understand your point, but in my experience there is some "gps correction" that is necessary as on either pickup or dropoff as much as 20% of the time. How often does a PAX say "go a little farther down the road"?

I think that SDC passengers will need to adjust (be trained) to accept "negotiated" pickups and dropoffs that are both known to the SDC, easily accessible to the SDC, and "nearby" what was input by the requester. If the negotiation fails for any reason then a human backup driver will be dispatched to make the pickup.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Maven said:


> I understand your point, but in my experience there is some "gps correction" that is necessary as on either pickup or dropoff as much as 20% of the time. How often does a PAX say "go a little farther down the road"?
> 
> I think that SDC passengers will need to adjust (be trained) to accept "negotiated" pickups and dropoffs that are both known to the SDC, easily accessible to the SDC, and "nearby" what was input by the requester. If the negotiation fails for any reason then a human backup driver will be dispatched to make the pickup.


But here is the all important question: Will people want Uber SDCs ? There will always be people who prefer the humanity of a driver, just as they don't want robot bartenders, robot shoe shiners, robot barbers, etc, though all of these could be replaced with robots, people still want humanity. Robots work in some areas well, not so well in others. So, the question is, will the SDC be the way of the future? My gut feeling is no. Anyway, Will they be cheaper? The cost per paid mile is very close to what the rate is. I drive about 250 miles per day, and for that, I recieve a total of about $135 - $150, average. So, let's call it $140 average, this comes to about 56 cents for every mile, average I take in ( every mile, averaged, paid miles and non paid miles averaged together ). The Triple A study for a new car, factoring in all costs, over a 5 year period, the cost to operate a vehicle is 57 cents per mile for a midsized car. How is an SDC going to be operated at a cost per mile cheaper than this? The whole point is to lower the fare, otherwise, why would anyone climb into a driverless car? Perhaps, if they are electric cars, are able to get wholesale prices for the vehicles, etc, to bring the cost per mile down, but still, they have to be profitable, and to be profitable, they have to charge twice what the cost per mile is, because of other costs associated with operating a business that vehicle owners do not have. So, to be profitablle, the cost per mile would have to be drastically reduced so that profitable rate would be even less than it is now. That day is probably a long ways off. So, the question is, can Uber continue to lose billions per year until the SDC delivers them to the promised land? Also, Google is way ahead of Uber on SDC tech, right?

The more you encumber drivers, the more you defeat the whole reason for taking an UberSDC in the first place. Once inside the thing, they won't have the benefit of a driver to talk to, in case they want to ask questions about the neighborhood, change their mind about where they are going, the rider will have to do all of this from a user inputted screen on the back of the front seat, thus encumbering riders even more. This might be worth it on longer riders, but most rides are short, and so, I'm not seeing the benefit of a SDC for most rides, as they tend to encumber the rider more, not less.



Maven said:


> Hackers targeting a particular SDC will be an issue tomorrow in the same way hackers are an issue for corporate computers today.


Except that if a corporate computer is hacked, it can't take your body into opposing traffic, or over a cliff. It won't take much to spook the public on these things, once something tragic happens. You can.'t use "airlines" as a comparison, because with air travel, there are no other alternatives (bus or railroad is not an "alternative" due to speed ). With SDCs, you do, you can opt out.

Big difference.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Oscar Levant said:


> But here is the all important question: Will people want Uber SDCs ? There will always be people who prefer the humanity of a driver, just as they don't want robot bartenders, robot shoe shiners, robot barbers, etc, though all of these could be replaced with robots, people still want humanity. Robots work in some areas well, not so well in others. So, the question is, will the SDC be the way of the future? My gut feeling is no. Anyway, Will they be cheaper? The cost per paid mile is very close to what the rate is. I drive about 250 miles per day, and for that, I recieve a total of about $135 - $150, average. So, let's call it $140 average, this comes to about 56 cents for every mile, average I take in ( every mile, averaged, paid miles and non paid miles averaged together ). The Triple A study for a new car, factoring in all costs, over a 5 year period, the cost to operate a vehicle is 57 cents per mile for a midsized car. How is an SDC going to be operated at a cost per mile cheaper than this? The whole point is to lower the fare, otherwise, why would anyone climb into a driverless car? Perhaps, if they are electric cars, are able to get wholesale prices for the vehicles, etc, to bring the cost per mile down, but still, they have to be profitable, and to be profitable, they have to charge twice what the cost per mile is, because of other costs associated with operating a business that vehicle owners do not have. So, to be profitablle, the cost per mile would have to be drastically reduced so that profitable rate would be even less than it is now. That day is probably a long ways off. So, the question is, can Uber continue to lose billions per year until the SDC delivers them to the promised land? Also, Google is way ahead of Uber on SDC tech, right?


I believe that you're both right and wrong. I agree that a certain percentage of people will generally prefer a human driver for the reasons you gave. However, a larger percentage will generally choose the lower cost alternative. That will be SDCs regardless of the actual cost to operate (How long has Uber been operating at a loss?) How often do you get a rider that spends the entire trip on a cell phone, ignoring the driver? Those people will prefer SDCs to human drivers.


Oscar Levant said:


> The more you encumber drivers, the more you defeat the whole reason for taking an UberSDC in the first place. Once inside the thing, they won't have the benefit of a driver to talk to, in case they want to ask questions about the neighborhood, change their mind about where they are going, the rider will have to do all of this from a user inputted screen on the back of the front seat, thus encumbering riders even more. This might be worth it on longer riders, but most rides are short, and so, I'm not seeing the benefit of a SDC for most rides, as they tend to encumber the rider more, not less.


I believe that a smaller number of human drivers will be needed for the foreseeable future to do what SDCs cannot.


Oscar Levant said:


> Except that if a corporate computer is hacked, it can't take your body into opposing traffic, or over a cliff. It won't take much to spook the public on these things, once something tragic happens. You can.'t use "airlines" as a comparison, because with air travel, there are no other alternatives (bus or railroad is not an "alternative" due to speed ). With SDCs, you do, you can opt out. Big difference.


I think we agree that hacking will be an ongoing safety concern. It will be a never-ending "arms race". One solution is a manual "kill switch" that will immediately stop a hacked car. It's a poor solution at best, but better than going over a cliff.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Maven said:


> I believe that you're both right and wrong. I agree that a certain percentage of people will generally prefer a human driver for the reasons you gave. However, a larger percentage will generally choose the lower cost alternative. That will be SDCs regardless of the actual cost to operate (How long has Uber been operating at a loss?)


Uber started with $13 billion in investor money, according to reports, they have $7 billion left. their original plan was market dominance, and then profitability from there. The day will come when they run out of cash, and given current pricing model, they cannot operate profitably. The consensus among the financial community now is that Uber will never achieve market dominance ( not like Amazon has on the internet ), so this idea is totally up in the air. Uber SDCs, may, or may not be cheaper to operate than a regular vehicle, depending on if they can convert them to electric vehicles, get the wholesale purchase price much lower than a conventional car, get the cost per mile cheaper than what current cars cost to operate etc. No, no company can continue operate at a loss forever, unless it is subsidized by the government, become nonprofit orgs ( thus tax deductible) or for-profit investors do not mind losing money, which makes no sense.



> How often do you get a rider that spends the entire trip on a cell phone, ignoring the driver? Those people will prefer SDCs to human drivers.


Most people interact with drivers, at some point, and this will not be allowed for SDC, requiring rider to input stuff on a screen provided for the rider, the screen located on the backside of driver's or shotgun seat, which translates as more encumbrance for rider, which tends to defeat the whole reason for using a SDC in the first place. I'll bet they will be a curiosity at first, but unless the rate of fare is drastically cheaper, I'm not seeing SDC's to be that big of a revolution in rider habits. We shall see.


> I believe that a smaller number of human drivers will be needed for the foreseeable future to do what SDCs cannot.


I doubt they will be that popular. I ask almost everyone who gets in my car, "would they climb into an UBer car that didn't have a driver?" only the real techie types say yes, most say no.


> I think we agree that hacking will be an ongoing safety concern. It will be a never-ending "arms race". One solution is a manual "kill switch" that will immediately stop a hacked car. It's a poor solution at best, but better than going over a cliff.


S0, you're on a two lane highway going 55 miles per hour and you are hacked, the hack of which directs you into the oncoming traffic.

Now then, where is this kill switch, one that a child cannot accidentally trigger? And how long does it take the rider to trigger it?



RamzFanz said:


> SDCs don't use GPS for driving, they use internal maps. They can also detect cones and be directed by authorities for years now.


How does a traffic guy direct a SDC, say at a concert venue, etc. ?



> Then the SDC will have a designated pickup point. Fixed.


So, SDCs will have how many negotiated millions of designated pick up points, further encumbering riders more than they are now -- including if it's a short run, as most runs are, the price savings of which is negligible?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Oscar Levant said:


> How does a traffic guy direct a SDC, say at a concert venue, etc. ?


Your thinking SOP as of now. No one is saying there won't be changes. None of these questions are unsolvable nor will they all be solved immediately.

One car figures out what it's supposed to do in a given situation, even with human input (local authority, passenger, remote assistance), and all cars could know what they are supposed to do. Concert venues have set patterns. You won't need a traffic guy because the cars will already know.



Oscar Levant said:


> So, SDCs will have how many negotiated millions of designated pick up points, further encumbering riders more than they are now -- including if it's a short run, as most runs are, the price savings of which is negligible?


You simply refuse to acknowledge the efficiency of scale with mass production and technology. Electric SDC fleets, built by the manufacturer at cost, will be hugely less expensive to operate than an individual retail car. Hugely. No 75% going to the driver! 2 moving parts vs 2,000! Fleet maintenance and management! Vehicle fleets AT COST.

Yes, in difficult areas, there will be designated pick up and drop off spots. We do that now as humans. It's hardly novel. As these fleets are utilized and car ownership goes down, the available space will skyrocket.



Oscar Levant said:


> Will they be cheaper? The cost per paid mile is very close to what the rate is. I drive about 250 miles per day, and for that, I recieve a total of about $135 - $150, average. So, let's call it $140 average, this comes to about 56 cents for every mile, average I take in ( every mile, averaged, paid miles and non paid miles averaged together ). The Triple A study for a new car, factoring in all costs, over a 5 year period, the cost to operate a vehicle is 57 cents per mile for a midsized car. How is an SDC going to be operated at a cost per mile cheaper than this? The whole point is to lower the fare, otherwise, why would anyone climb into a driverless car? Perhaps, if they are electric cars, are able to get wholesale prices for the vehicles, etc, to bring the cost per mile down, but still, they have to be profitable, and to be profitable, they have to charge twice what the cost per mile is, because of other costs associated with operating a business that vehicle owners do not have. So, to be profitablle, the cost per mile would have to be drastically reduced so that profitable rate would be even less than it is now. That day is probably a long ways off. So, the question is, can Uber continue to lose billions per year until the SDC delivers them to the promised land? Also, Google is way ahead of Uber on SDC tech, right?


I think you meant a new internal combustible engine vehicle paying retail for the car, retail for fuel, and retail for maintenance.

How will they lower the fare? By not doing that.

And no, they don't have to charge twice the cost to be profitable, they need $.01 more than costs per ride to be profitable. There are no costs above vehicle owners that businesses have, businesses have the advantage in every way.

Yes, Waymo (Google) is way ahead and it doesn't matter. Any auto company can lease Waymo's product when it's ready and Uber has many Auto company partners.



Oscar Levant said:


> The more you encumber drivers, the more you defeat the whole reason for taking an UberSDC in the first place. Once inside the thing, they won't have the benefit of a driver to talk to, in case they want to ask questions about the neighborhood, change their mind about where they are going, the rider will have to do all of this from a user inputted screen on the back of the front seat, thus encumbering riders even more. This might be worth it on longer riders, but most rides are short, and so, I'm not seeing the benefit of a SDC for most rides, as they tend to encumber the rider more, not less.


I remember when people said this about every advancement in technology.

Look, if you want to change your destination, you tap a screen and change it. This is what I require of my passangers today. They have to change it. Period. It takes half a minute.


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## tootsie (Sep 12, 2015)

self driving ride shares? I'll believe it when I see it.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

tootsie said:


> self driving ride shares? I'll believe it when I see it.


That was over a year ago.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

RamzFanz said:


> I remember when people said this about every advancement in technology.


What percentage of patents actually make it to market and become viable?

it's a very small number ( I think it's about 2%) the point being, just because it's "technology" isn't proof that it's viable.

We'll just have to wait and see.

I would prefer an Uber ride with a driver. That's me. maybe it will take a generation change, but by that time, they might figure out a whole new paradigm, maybe anti-gravity machines, who knows?


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## K-pax (Oct 29, 2016)

Maven said:


> How often do you get a rider that spends the entire trip on a cell phone, ignoring the driver? Those people will prefer SDCs to human drivers.


Maybe once or twice a night. Almost everyone gets in and conversation starts pretty much right off the bat. Especially with out of towners and tourists. They want as much of the 'local experience' as possible, my recommendations 'as a local' of what to do and see, a bit of local history, folklore and so forth. I could see some folks opting for that but the 'majority' claim seems overly optimistic, at least for some time. People deeply into robotics tend to discount the human element of everything. Not everyone is looking for the cheapest or most efficient thing possible at all times, otherwise people wouldn't go on vacation, only eat fast food, would never go to a bar and so on. Sometimes you want a social human experience.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

K-pax said:


> Maybe once or twice a night. Almost everyone gets in and conversation starts pretty much right off the bat. Especially with out of towners and tourists. They want as much of the 'local experience' as possible, my recommendations 'as a local' of what to do and see, a bit of local history, folklore and so forth. I could see some folks opting for that but the 'majority' claim seems overly optimistic, at least for some time. People deeply into robotics tend to discount the human element of everything. Not everyone is looking for the cheapest or most efficient thing possible at all times, otherwise people wouldn't go on vacation, only eat fast food, would never go to a bar and so on. Sometimes you want a social human experience.


You must get more out of towners and tourists than I. I get fewer passengers that want conversation. In my experience, 

multiple riders talk among themselves, occasionally and briefly talking to me.

most single riders spend most of the trip either talking on their cell phone or playing with it.
older riders tend to be more conversational


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## Trafficat (Dec 19, 2016)

Jagent said:


> Personally, I'm still waiting on the smart stoplights they promised us 20 years ago. You know, stoplights that can tell there isn't another car within 5 miles, so there's no reason to turn red?


I think we have the opposite. In my town we have lights that are always red until they sense a car. A lot of times I cannot get the light to detect my car if I am driving at 3 AM and the light won't turn.... ever...


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