# For all the Naysayers... Rethinkx and the TAAS economy.



## RideshareSpectrum (May 12, 2017)

Dont know if it been mentioned or discussed here before... this is an in depth white paper called Rethinking Transportation by RETHINK.X, a think tank that studies and models disruptive technology. It's about the advent of AOVs and the economic implications thereof. An excerpt:
*
'We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call "transport- as-a-service" (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portionsof their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value - but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average American family will save more than $5,600 per year in transportation costs, equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion
per year in Americans' pockets by 2030, potentially generating the largest infusion of consumer spending in history..."*

It's a compelling read and should become top of mind for anyone currently involved in the RS economy. It's happening for sure and much faster than anyone anticipates. Have a plan.

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...30c5/1494888038959/RethinkX+Report_051517.pdf


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

RideshareSpectrum said:


> Dont know if it been mentioned or discussed here before... this is an in depth white paper called Rethinking Transportation by RETHINK.X, a think tank that studies and models disruptive technology. It's about the advent of AOVs and the economic implications thereof. An excerpt:
> *
> 'We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call "transport- as-a-service" (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portionsof their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value - but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
> The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average American family will save more than $5,600 per year in transportation costs, equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion
> ...


I get the point about it destroying investor value. But with massive unemployment, where does the consumer value enter?

Is the Universal Basic Income going to become a reality?


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

RideshareSpectrum said:


> Dont know if it been mentioned or discussed here before... this is an in depth white paper called Rethinking Transportation by RETHINK.X, a think tank that studies and models disruptive technology. It's about the advent of AOVs and the economic implications thereof. An excerpt:
> *
> 'We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call "transport- as-a-service" (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portionsof their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value - but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
> The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average American family will save more than $5,600 per year in transportation costs, equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion
> ...


This report is about as useful as a fire alarm in a building without any exits. They do not offer any solutions, legal, political, or economic. The scope of the report is overly limited. The coming disruptions will likely be far worse than indicated. Before that, other industries besides rideshare and taxi, that were mentioned, will be severely disrupted. You did not mention truckers or the entire multi-$Trillion personal automobile market (about 1 in 25 jobs): manufacturing, retail, parts, repair, etc. 5-10 million jobs will disappear from the USA forever in a decade or two. The numbers are higher when considering the rest of the world. If these jobs can be replaced, how? What good is it for a family to save a few thousand dollars yearly if they are suddenly unemployed? How is that going to "increase consumer spending"? Besides not offering solutions, the report does not analyze that how what will happen to the auto industry is only one part of the larger set of disruptions, caused by automation, that will impact almost every sector of society. Fortunately, these are a few, not many, beginning to consider the larger issues.


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## d0n (Oct 16, 2016)

IT's an interesting understanding from a large picture.

Truth is cabs are ****ed by their owners and regulations going overboard, though.


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## RideshareSpectrum (May 12, 2017)

This isn't just big pic/broad stroke information.. it's a window into the mind eye of the drivers of this new economy. This was clearly paid for by peeps inside the tech startup microcosm, drafted by this think tank made up of peeps working in and reporting on the tech startup microcosm, and its target audience investors in the tech startup microcosm. The omissions and points glossed over that you guys mention are revealing the ideals by which the players running this game operate as well as what the don't give AF about... anyone or thing that stands in the way of realizing their utopian vision of the future. 
They don't mention or provide solutions for the loss of millions of jobs, displacement of millions of families, and potential socio economic Armageddon because they simply don't give AF.

They care above all about $$$$, status quonsisruption, and that their anti social, bro grammer culture builds out bro grammer cities filled almost exclusively with bro grammar familiies ( and those that serve them and cater to their bro grammar whims). Everything else is out of sight and mind. 

These are the folks now running the show.


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

RideshareSpectrum said:


> They care above all about $$$$, status quonsisruption, and that their anti social, bro grammer culture builds out bro grammer cities filled almost exclusively with bro grammar familiies ( and those that serve them and cater to their bro grammar whims). Everything else is out of sight and mind.
> 
> These are the folks now running the show.


The irony is, if they win, they will starve to death. But at least their fingernails will be clean and their hands free of callouses.


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## gofry (Oct 20, 2015)

The truth is that driverless cars are decades away from being a real thing. The potential of litigation and the lack of coherent legislation will be the stumbling blocks, not the technology. For now, it's just a cool PR topic for tech and car companies.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

RideshareSpectrum said:


> ... The omissions and points glossed over that you guys mention are revealing the ideals by which the players running this game operate as well as what the don't give AF about... anyone or thing that stands in the way of realizing their utopian vision of the future. They don't mention or provide solutions for the loss of millions of jobs, displacement of millions of families, and potential socio economic Armageddon because they simply don't give AF. They care above all about $$$$, status quonsisruption, and that their anti social, bro grammer culture builds out bro grammer cities filled almost exclusively with bro grammar familiies ( and those that serve them and cater to their bro grammar whims). Everything else is out of sight and mind.These are the folks now running the show.


With the notable exception of a very few far thinking individuals, I agree with you. They are unaware of the issues today. They will do little or nothing when millions lose their jobs. Finally, when there is massive social upheaval, protests, riots and more; it may be too late. They will ask "How did we get here?" and demand police / military protection.


gofry said:


> The truth is that driverless cars are decades away from being a real thing. The potential of litigation and the lack of coherent legislation will be the stumbling blocks, not the technology. For now, it's just a cool PR topic for tech and car companies.


You may be right about a car that can drive itself anywhere in any weather, but that will not be the first practical implementation. See
https://uberpeople.net/threads/sdcs-will-come-a-lot-sooner-than-you-think.157838/


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

gofry said:


> The truth is that driverless cars are decades away from being a real thing. The potential of litigation and the lack of coherent legislation will be the stumbling blocks, not the technology. For now, it's just a cool PR topic for tech and car companies.


Litigation against a safer mode of transportation vs the status quo? Comeondude.

The legislation has long been in the works.

They aren't decades away, they may come as soon as this year, Definitely within 2.


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## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

A TAAS is not practical.

You know all your neigdhbors who let their dogs (#*% in your yard?

Those jerks who leave shopping carts all over the Walmart parking lot?


The lady who blows her nose onto cloths seats of an uber driver?

Well these are the folks you are going to be sharing self driving cars with. They will need very heavy cleaning on a very regular basis. People won't want to do away with owningd their own car with how nasty these will get. The first time you got to get your kids into a car to take them to school and find a crack pipe or a giant purple $(%& that is all covered in $D*%* you will rethink whether it's a good idea at all.

People collectively are too horrible and self centered for these types of deals to work. Sure they may be less inclined to pull this on a car with a chauffeured driver, but it still happens.

Once you take the human out of the equation the car becomes as respected as a park bench, and by that i mean not at all.


The first people to get a self driving fleet on the road with no human baby sitter will discover how horrible people are and realize they wasted all this money on a fleet.

Right now all "self driving" cars take 2 people to operate. With even one person operating it they will still know if someone lites up a meth pipe during the drive. Until the human is taken out we won't know how horrible people will be.

At the end of the day car ownership won't go away. And self driving cars will take a huge bite out of the taxi industry. People could just summon their cars to take them to the airport... and take them home, and they won't have to pay $10 or more a day for parking, which is direct cause of a great deal of taxi in this country.

Self driving cars are coming. But it will be people owning their own self driving car.


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