# Free cars for 25% or SDC for 100%



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Uber has a trillion dollar fleet of cars on the road that they pay nothing for and get 25% of each fare plus the booking fee.

Will the SDC that gets 100K or more miles a year really be profitable for them?

Especially if other companies compete with Uber for SDC taxis?

Is Uber just wasting money on SDC technology?

Also SDC will only be profitable in busy cities. in slow markets like mine when I'm the only ant in the area who makes less than $6 on two rides morning to 5pm they won't be able to spend money on SDC

Also they will have to send SDC out for 5 miles or more to pick up a minimum fare and then repeat that several times a day. 

And what is the car going to do call someone and ask where they are or what will they do when the nav sends you to the wrong pickup spot or a strip mall and will the cars wait or just drive away after 5 minutes to go to another ride?

And the SDC is 100% of the fare minus gas, cost of car. maintenance etc.


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Lee239 said:


> Uber has a trillion dollar fleet of cars on the road that they pay nothing for and get 25% of each fare plus the booking fee.
> 
> Will the SDC that gets 100K or more miles a year really be profitable for them?
> 
> ...


Short term itll be good cuz they would own transportation but everything will be replaced by by AI so no money and they will lose out after a couple years.

I beilve befor everything goes AI ww3 will happen. We have no money so its time to do another war to make material and to bomb nations for oil and precious monerals


----------



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Jermin8r89 said:


> Short term itll be good cuz they would own transportation but everything will be replaced by by AI so no money and they will lose out after a couple years.
> 
> I beilve befor everything goes AI ww3 will happen. We have no money so its time to do another war to make material and to bomb nations for oil and precious monerals


When there are no longer jobs there will have to be at least another civil war or global revolt. If they can't provide us with a living wage now for jobs they certainly won't when workers are no longer needed. I always thought it would be cool to live in the future, but it looks bleaker as we get closer.


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

These are the numbers to pay attention to
*Record 95,102,000 Americans Not in Labor Force*
*http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...-labor-force-number-grew-18-obama-took-office*



Lee239 said:


> When there are no longer jobs there will have to be at least another civil war or global revolt. If they can't provide us with a living wage now for jobs they certainly won't when workers are no longer needed. I always thought it would be cool to live in the future, but it looks bleaker as we get closer.


Seriously, get on gold and silver. Then do a bugout plan


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Lee239 said:


> Will the SDC that gets 100K or more miles a year really be profitable for them?


Yes, hugely profitable.


Lee239 said:


> Especially if other companies compete with Uber for SDC taxis?


If Uber maintains the largest market share then no one will be able to seriously compete, which will not stop many from trying.


Lee239 said:


> Is Uber just wasting money on SDC technology?


No.


Lee239 said:


> Also SDC will only be profitable in busy cities. in slow markets like mine when I'm the only ant in the area who makes less than $6 on two rides morning to 5pm they won't be able to spend money on SDC


True, but only initially. Each passing year, SDCs will be introduced into more markets.


Lee239 said:


> Also they will have to send SDC out for 5 miles or more to pick up a minimum fare and then repeat that several times a day.


No. SDCs may be given the most profitable runs (the PAX-car matching computer knows the destinations). SDCs may be give preference over closer human drivers for the next ping. The "leftover" runs will be dispersed among the remaining human drivers.


Lee239 said:


> And what is the car going to do call someone and ask where they are or what will they do when the nav sends you to the wrong pickup spot or a strip mall and will the cars wait or just drive away after 5 minutes to go to another ride?


Same as today, charge them a cancellation fee and go to the next fare. PAX that cannot locate the pickup pin properly will quickly learn the correct way or order a more expensive human-driven car.


Lee239 said:


> And the SDC is 100% of the fare minus gas, cost of car. maintenance etc.


Yes. Uber will keep the 75% of the fare that drivers get today, cut fares for SDCs by 20% and still make a huge profit. A severely reduced number of Human drivers will be retained for PAX willing to pay the old rates for services that the SDCs cannot perform. That's just the beginning. Other ways for Uber to turn costs into profits include:

Huge tax saving by depreciation on the decreasing value of the SDCs
Self-insure the SDCs, unless today's insurance companies drastically cut rates.
Selling SDCs to private parties after 3-5 years of service, like rental-car companies do today.

Buying gas and doing maintenance for the SDCs at "bulk discount" prices, Uber will be able to save an additional 20%-50% of those costs, which will increase their profits further.


----------



## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

Uber won't be the first company to get SDVs on the road. Everyone forgets that uber has to make a perfect car that's perfect ALL the time, while ford just has to make a car that mostly works most of the time.

A car that works 100.00000000000000000000000000% of the time is a LOT harder to pull off than a car that occasionally need a little human assistance.

Would you call a car self driving if you occasionally had to take control in parking lots or in very heavy traffic, bad weather or couldn't navigate a construction site?


Could Ford sell that car that mostly worked? 

Would it be useful as a self driving taxi?


That's why uber WON'T be first.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Uber won't be the first company to get SDVs on the road. Everyone forgets that uber has to make a perfect car that's perfect ALL the time, while ford just has to make a car that mostly works most of the time. A car that works 100.00000000000000000000000000% of the time is a LOT harder to pull off than a car that occasionally need a little human assistance.


Initially, SDCs are not required to work 100% of the time or in 100% of all possible environments. See
https://uberpeople.net/threads/sdcs-will-come-a-lot-sooner-than-you-think.157838/


Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Would you call a car self driving if you occasionally had to take control in parking lots or in very heavy traffic, bad weather or couldn't navigate a construction site?


Yes. That is the definition of levels 3 and 4. Level 5 is NOT required initially. Each issue you cite has a workaround or solution that has ALREADY been discussed in this forum.


Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Could Ford sell that car that mostly worked?


They're sold today.  There are 1000s of accidents and $billions in damage each year.  Why should SDCs be required to meet a higher standard?


Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Would it be useful as a self driving taxi?


Yes.


Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> That's why uber WON'T be first.


Does not matter if Uber is first. They only need to be close enough to buy, reverse-engineer, or steal the technology from whoever is first. Uber may be forced to share the profit with whoever is first. Travis hates that idea, but will eventually give into pressure from the investors.


----------



## JMBF831 (Aug 13, 2015)

A few things I think about regarding Uber going the SDC route


How will they accommodate car washes/gas fill ups/cleaning out trash left inside cars
Car storage. Right now everyone parks their cars at home/driveway when done. Uber cars will park, where? Will they come "back home" at the end of the day. Will they just leave cars spread out where ever?

Car maintenance. Uber has little to no liability right now because it isn't their car. With SDC they take on ALL the liability
Interesting things to discuss.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

JMBF831 said:


> A few things I think about regarding Uber going the SDC route (see below). Interesting things to discuss.


My answers in PURPLE

How will they accommodate car washes/gas fill ups/cleaning out trash left inside cars? The "Fleet" will be put on a 24-hour "rotating maintenance schedule" for issues like car washes/gas fill ups and periodic maintenance (oil filter, fluid levels, etc.). Gas fill ups and gas costs can be minimized by using electrics and/or hybrids. "Unexpected" issues like cleanups, barfing, and accidents, that the automation in the car cannot handle will force "unscheduled" maintenance or a tow truck (or police) to be dispatched. The PAX responsible will be billed for these whenever possible.

Car storage. Right now everyone parks their cars at home/driveway when done. Uber cars will park, where? Will they come "back home" at the end of the day. Will they just leave cars spread out where ever? SDCs do not need to sleep and will be worked 23 hours/day (the other hour will be maintenance). When idle they will park like human-drivers do today.

... Uber has little to no liability right now because it isn't their car. With SDC they take on ALL the liability. Uber may choose any of the solutions commonly used today by large corporate fleets of vehicles, including "self-insure" unless current insurers drastically cut current rates to be competitive.
Another interesting question is the "optimum" ratio of SDCs to customers. Too many SDCs and an unacceptable percentage will be idle for too much of the day. This is a potential area to keep a much smaller number of human-drivers, willing to work the "overflow" during peak hours, which may be maintained indefinitely,


----------



## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

This is my opinion:



Lee239 said:


> Uber has a trillion dollar fleet of cars on the road that they pay nothing for and get 25% of each fare plus the booking fee.


They pay all of our costs already. If they aren't, you aren't making a profit.



Lee239 said:


> Will the SDC that gets 100K or more miles a year really be profitable for them?


Yes. In fact, they may not even have a fleet. The most likely outcome is one of their auto partners will provide the fleet for a piece of the TNC pie.



Lee239 said:


> Especially if other companies compete with Uber for SDC taxis?


Many will compete. It's going to be interesting. But Uber owns 80% of the US market so they have the potential to be first. Waymo is my horse though and that could be really bad for Uber.



Lee239 said:


> Is Uber just wasting money on SDC technology?


Yes. They are posing. Their partners will provide the technology and probably the fleets. There's about 0% chance Uber will develop SDCs.



Lee239 said:


> Also SDC will only be profitable in busy cities. in slow markets like mine when I'm the only ant in the area who makes less than $6 on two rides morning to 5pm they won't be able to spend money on SDC


Covered.



Lee239 said:


> Also they will have to send SDC out for 5 miles or more to pick up a minimum fare and then repeat that several times a day.


Small electric glorified golf carts with no drivers will be hugely profitable. Economies of scale also kick in.



Lee239 said:


> And what is the car going to do call someone and ask where they are or what will they do when the nav sends you to the wrong pickup spot or a strip mall and will the cars wait or just drive away after 5 minutes to go to another ride?


The car will tell the passangers how to find them. The dynamic is shifting the burden onto the passenger.



Lee239 said:


> And the SDC is 100% of the fare minus gas, cost of car. maintenance etc.


Electric cars are very low maintenance and no gas.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Uber won't be the first company to get SDVs on the road. Everyone forgets that uber has to make a perfect car that's perfect ALL the time, while ford just has to make a car that mostly works most of the time.


No, they don't. Level 3 with remote assistance or passenger instructions are more than possible, they already exist. Ford is saying SDC TNCs by 2021.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> A car that works 100.00000000000000000000000000% of the time is a LOT harder to pull off than a car that occasionally need a little human assistance.


Yes it is, but they don't need to be 100% to take our rides. That's a myth.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Would you call a car self driving if you occasionally had to take control in parking lots or in very heavy traffic, bad weather or couldn't navigate a construction site?


You wouldn't take control nor would you need to. One answer is remote driving.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Could Ford sell that car that mostly worked?


Yes.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Would it be useful as a self driving taxi?


Yes.



Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> That's why uber WON'T be first.


Uber won't be first as in them developing it. That's not going to happen. That doesn't imply they won't be first.



Maven said:


> Yes. That is the definition of levels 3 and 4. Level 5 is NOT required initially. Each issue you cite has a workaround or solution that has ALREADY been discussed in this forum.


I agree but level 4 is level 5, just geo-fenced.



JMBF831 said:


> How will they accommodate car washes/gas fill ups/cleaning out trash left inside cars


Easily?



JMBF831 said:


> Car storage. Right now everyone parks their cars at home/driveway when done. Uber cars will park, where? Will they come "back home" at the end of the day. Will they just leave cars spread out where ever?


Low rent district parking garages in low demand and spread out in high. They will also migrate to areas like the suburbs at end of the night to prepare for morning commutes.



JMBF831 said:


> Car maintenance. Uber has little to no liability right now because it isn't their car. With SDC they take on ALL the liability


If Uber isn't currently paying your maintenance, you aren't making a profit. The truth is, they are and your car is WAY more expensive than an electric fleet.



JMBF831 said:


> Interesting things to discuss.


They are,


----------



## JMBF831 (Aug 13, 2015)

RamzFanz

Sorry, your ideas wont work. You forget that Uber has little overhead and is LOSING money. Try again.


----------



## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

JMBF831 said:


> RamzFanz
> 
> Sorry, your ideas wont work. You forget that Uber has little overhead and is LOSING money. Try again.


They aren't losing money, they are investing in market share, big difference.

If immediate profit were their goal, that could happen tomorrow.


----------

