# From über to no über....



## Paul Collins (Dec 12, 2016)

From über to no über….
Years ago we went from VHS to DVD’s and now to Netflix and streaming services in order to watch a movie. The rideshare platform is not that different to this. 

At the moment we are in in VHS mode with only one real major operator and soon we will see many operators who will change the way rideshare is delivered. From other technology companies to car manufactures who will engage with some variant of rideshare, one thing is quite obvious and that is it will change.

I was recently told about the Volvo and Mercedes plans for 2027 to 2030 where people will no longer buy a car, but they will 'subscribe' to car, the equivalent of Netflix streaming services today, and people will pay perhaps 10% of the value of the new car to have access to that car, 24/7 and potentially globally. 

It works like this, a person would say ‘subscribe' to their model Volvo and the pay a small per km rate on top of that. The user would via their app, request the vehicle to be at their door at say 8.30am or book it like we do an uber now and the Volvo would self drive to that address and be ready for the ‘owner’ to use. 

On arriving at the destination, the Volvo would leave the ‘owner’ and travel to the next booked request or if no requests are in, then back to the Volvo dealer, who would clean and service the car. This model ensures that car dealers play a useful role into the future as we move to more autonomous vehicles.

The advantages are clear as no one will need to build an expensive garage or use that space in their home to house ‘their’ car. In cities like Sydney, this saving along may justify the costs of ‘subscribing’ to a better model Volvo. It also means that on arriving at any airport, ‘your’ car will turn up and off you go, either driving the car or allowing some percentage of auto driving if you are not that familiar with that city. This means then end of rental cars, uber and taxis.

So not only is uber doomed in my opinion to fail in the longer term, so are rental cars and all taxis services.


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## χ²(1) (Jun 1, 2016)

It would take a major shift in attitude for Australians to 'subscribe' to a car. One major reason is the distances Australians have to travel, compared to Europeans. 

An analogy is Australian home ownership. Most Europeans by contrast are renters.


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## Paul Collins (Dec 12, 2016)

"Americans will look back on pre-autonomy like the age of Casio calculators and DOS prompts."

" Twenty-five years from now, the only people still owning cars will be hobbyists, hot-rodders and flat-earth dissenters. Everyone else will be happy to share."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/could-self-driving-cars-spell-the-end-of-ownership-1448986572


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## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Paul Collins said:


> "Americans will look back on pre-autonomy like the age of Casio calculators and DOS prompts."
> 
> " Twenty-five years from now, the only people still owning cars will be hobbyists, hot-rodders and flat-earth dissenters. Everyone else will be happy to share."
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/could-self-driving-cars-spell-the-end-of-ownership-1448986572








Okay, and now for the sake of balance........







​edit reason:endeavouring to present a balanced argument


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## UberX.illegal? (Nov 12, 2014)

Paul Collins said:


> "Americans will look back on pre-autonomy like the age of Casio calculators and DOS prompts."
> 
> " Twenty-five years from now, the only people still owning cars will be hobbyists, hot-rodders and flat-earth dissenters. Everyone else will be happy to share."
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/could-self-driving-cars-spell-the-end-of-ownership-1448986572


And everyone will be vegan too :-D


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## Lowestformofwit (Sep 2, 2016)

And permanently-rented unit living will replace home ownership, too?
Aussies like to own things, starting with a house/unit; followed by a car or two.
Good luck with any communal ownership schemes that want to change either of the above.


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## Paul Collins (Dec 12, 2016)

Lowestformofwit said:


> And permanently-rented unit living will replace home ownership, too?
> Aussies like to own things, starting with a house/unit; followed by a car or two.
> Good luck with any communal ownership schemes that want to change either of the above.


You mean like Germany is now where over 65% pf the people rent, never a housing bubble and capital is diverted into productive works rather than non productive works like housing?
Outright home ownership in Australia has dropped from 47% to 31%. Mmmmm... Are you seeing a trend yet?


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## χ²(1) (Jun 1, 2016)

Paul Collins said:


> Are you seeing a trend yet?


You only cited trends in home ownership, not trends in home ownership aspirations.


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## Lowestformofwit (Sep 2, 2016)

χ²(1) said:


> You only cited trends in home ownership, not trends in home ownership aspirations.


Yep, the old "proof by selected instances" argument.
As a parent of four thirty-something kids, I can vouch that home-ownership aspirations, for them at least, are very much alive.
My post referred to the spectre of involuntary (mandated) non-ownership of property/cars.


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## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Paul Collins said:


> You mean like Germany is now where over 65% pf the people rent, never a housing bubble and capital is diverted into productive works rather than non productive works like housing?
> Outright home ownership in Australia has dropped from 47% to 31%. Mmmmm... Are you seeing a trend yet?


Yes. Houses are becoming less affordable.
What do you see?


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## UBER66 (Feb 7, 2017)

You left out Beta in the VHS debate


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## Paul Collins (Dec 12, 2016)

Who is John Galt? said:


> Yes. Houses are becoming less affordable.
> What do you see?


I am seeing house price inflation well above wages growth and the society in general thinking this is a good thing. It is not. It is a dislocation of capital and will come back to bite us hard.



UBER66 said:


> You left out Beta in the VHS debate


Interesting as Beta was better technology than VHS but as VHS gained dominance they became the norm, similar to uber now I suspect.I can think of lots of ways to make the uber app better such as..
1. Have unlimited 'destination trips' for drivers.
2. Work from 'spare seats' not just a single driver. Lots of time I have my wife with me and I still have three spare seat.
3. Any car that is safe should be allowed and the rates set by drivers, not by uber.


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## χ²(1) (Jun 1, 2016)

Paul Collins said:


> Interesting as Beta was better technology than VHS but as VHS gained dominance they became the norm, similar to uber now I suspect.


Are you suggesting Betamax == Taxis, VHS == Uber??


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## Paul Collins (Dec 12, 2016)

χ²(1) said:


> Are you suggesting Betamax == Taxis, VHS == Uber??


No I am saying uber isVHS because of its dominance not because quality of the software.


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## CoolAnt (Feb 2, 2017)

I have to say.. that is a confusing analogy.


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## yogi bear (Dec 25, 2015)

Trouble is everyone is going to want these share cars at about the same time 7.30-9 am and 5-7 pm.
Plus who gunna want to sit in someone elses just vacated fart space?

My dream for the future is $10 a litre fuel prices and everyone rides a moped.


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## Instyle (Oct 18, 2014)

Paul Collins said:


> Years ago we went from VHS to DVD's and now to Netflix and streaming services in order to watch a movie. The rideshare platform is not that different to this.


Worst analogy ever, DVD's still paid licensing fees to the retrospective property owners or producers as do Netflix. The wheel wasn't reinvented, just the delivery of the service such as hailing a cab in the street to hailing a cab via gocatch or an app.

Are you suggesting we illegally live stream foxtel or other media and claim it's some revolutionary break through?


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## Lowestformofwit (Sep 2, 2016)

Instyle said:


> Are you suggesting we illegally live stream foxtel or other media and claim it's some revolutionary break through?


Too late to claim that honour.
Travis already did it with Scour around 2000 & had to declare bankruptcy to dodge the various IP owners $250 billion suit against him & his mates.
That claim was nearly four times Uber's current "worth".


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