# "We’re still very much in the early days of making self-driving cars a reality."



## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

*Bryan Salesky, CEO, Argo AI

"Those who think fully self-driving vehicles will be ubiquitous on city streets months from now or even in a few years are not well connected to the state of the art or committed to the safe deployment of the technology.* "

*Salesky* is a veteran of the Google Self-Driving Car Project (now known as Alphabet (subsidiary Waymo), and a legitimate expert on the state of self-driving technology

"Working in outdoor conditions among vehicle traffic, pedestrians and cyclists operating without strict adherence to a set of rules can be *tricky*. The effects of real-world conditions like night and day, changing weather, different road geometries and materials can compound things. The dynamics of the environment bring inconsistencies and variability to what robotic system builders have traditionally needed to simplify into a basic set of assumptions."

"In the past few years, the game has changed due in part to the computational power now available, but with this has come a new set of complexities we are still learning to manage."

*"As we embrace these advancements, we do so knowing that no single tool, technique or algorithm alone will categorically solve all of the self-driving challenges."
*
"Sensors still have a long way to go. We use LiDAR sensors, which work well in poor lighting conditions, to grab the three-dimensional geometry of the world around the car, but LiDAR doesn't provide color or texture, so we use cameras for that. Yet cameras are challenged in poor lighting, and tend to struggle to provide enough focus and resolution at all desired ranges of operation. In contrast, radar, while relatively low resolution, is able to directly detect the velocity of road users even at long distances.

That's why we still have so many sensors mounted on the car - the strengths of one complement the weaknesses of another. Individual sensors don't fully reproduce what they capture, so the computer has to combine the inputs from multiple sensors, then sort out the errors and inconsistencies. Combining all of this into one comprehensive and robust picture of the world for the computer to process is incredibly difficult.

Developing a system that can be manufactured and deployed at scale with cost-effective, maintainable hardware is even more challenging. We are innovating across the sensing hardware and software stack to lower costs, reduce sensor count, and improve range and resolution. *There remains significant work to be done to accomplish these conflicting objectives and get the technology to reliably scale*."

"*Our early results are indeed impressive, but we know full well that the devil is always in the details*."

"We must build algorithms that enable our autonomous vehicle to respond to a deeper understanding of the likely behavior of other road users. We need to instill "thoughtfulness" into the technology to ensure that the car can operate safely, reliably and predictably."

"But not all miles are created equal, so *"accumulated miles" is not an expressive enough metric to track progress.* Think of it this way: The skills you acquired learning to drive in a quiet Midwestern town will not translate should you find yourself driving in the heart of Manhattan."

"Given the high dimensionality of these inputs, it's impossible to test across the space of every possible input combination - there would be many trillions of combinations to test, *which is simply unmanageable."*
*
"*For those of us who have been working on the technology for a long time,* we're going to tell you the issue is still really hard, as the systems are as complex as ever."
*
"We're playing the long game and *avoiding the hype* in our commitment to bring this important technology to maturity"


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> *Bryan Salesky, CEO, Argo AI
> 
> "Those who think fully self-driving vehicles will be ubiquitous on city streets months from now or even in a few years are not well connected to the state of the art or committed to the safe deployment of the technology.* "
> 
> ...


Ford has to say something when their chief competitor is getting headlines like this:

*General Motors Company (GM) Stock Surges on Self-Driving Car Buzz*
*GM's self-driving cars will be ready sooner than expected
https://investorplace.com/2017/10/g...ing-cars-autonomous-vehicles-gm/#.Wezke2iPLIU*


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> Ford has to say something when their chief competitor is getting headlines like this:


Stop spreading fake news and fake information.

You are showing what a bank analyst says as opposed to what a "veteran of the Google Self-Driving Car Project (now known as Alphabet (subsidiary Waymo), and a legitimate expert on the state of self-driving technology" says .

This is where you are getting this crap from -
"General Motors (GM) shares jumped to their highest level in more than three years after analysts at Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to a "buy" and hiked its price target.
*In a note to clients Monday, Deutsche Bank's Rod Lache *wrote that GM has quietly taken a lead in the race to build self-driving vehicles. "

And here is this idiot's recommendation.

This guy has nothing to do with the technology. He is a stock analyst. Why don't you find a chef or a painter to tell us their "expert" opinion about self driving cars?


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> Stop spreading fake news and fake information.
> 
> You are showing what a bank analyst says as opposed to what a "veteran of the Google Self-Driving Car Project (now known as Alphabet (subsidiary Waymo), and a legitimate expert on the state of self-driving technology" says .
> 
> ...


Here is Chris Urmsom the former head of Google's entire self driving project and who many call the father of self driving cars: 53:10 to 54:35. "We're actually really quite close" (this was seven months ago)







jocker12 said:


> Stop spreading fake news and fake information.
> 
> You are showing what a bank analyst says as opposed to what a "veteran of the Google Self-Driving Car Project (now known as Alphabet (subsidiary Waymo), and a legitimate expert on the state of self-driving technology" says .
> 
> ...


What the H do you think a stock analyist does?



jocker12 said:


> Stop spreading fake news and fake information.
> 
> You are showing what a bank analyst says as opposed to what a "veteran of the Google Self-Driving Car Project (now known as Alphabet (subsidiary Waymo), and a legitimate expert on the state of self-driving technology" says .
> 
> ...


So Intel ran this ad on opening day of the NBA because self driving cars are still years away? Do I have that about right?







jocker12 said:


> Stop spreading fake news and fake information.
> 
> You are showing what a bank analyst says as opposed to what a "veteran of the Google Self-Driving Car Project (now known as Alphabet (subsidiary Waymo), and a legitimate expert on the state of self-driving technology" says .
> 
> ...


So Waymo signed a deal with Avis for them to handle operations of their 600 Chrysler self driving mini vans in Phoenix, just Phoenix mind you, because self driving cars are still years away. Do I have that about right?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/business/waymo-avis-deal-self-driving-cars-maintenance.html


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> *Bryan Salesky, CEO, Argo AI
> 
> "Those who think fully self-driving vehicles will be ubiquitous on city streets months from now or even in a few years are not well connected to the state of the art or committed to the safe deployment of the technology.* "
> 
> ...


He chose his words very carefully.

*Those who think fully self-driving vehicles will be ubiquitous on city streets months from now or even in a few years are not well connected to the state of the art or committed to the safe deployment of the technology*

He didn't say anything about Google being ready to launch a self driving taxi service in Phoenix with no human driver before Christmas, or GM doing the same in SF within months. No, instead he tried to muddy the waters with:

*Those who think fully self-driving vehicles will be ubiquitous on city streets months from now or even in a few years...*

But in fairness, what's he supposed to say: Yeah we're years behind Waymo and GM but please buy our stock anyway?


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> Here is Chris Urmsom the former head of Google's entire self driving project and who many call the father of self driving cars: 53:10 to 54:35. "We're actually really quite close" (this was seven months ago)


 This is what Urmson says - "*Replacing human-driven cars with fully autonomous vehicles will take 30 years or more". *We also have a dedicated thread to this interview you know very well about.




tomatopaste said:


> What the H do you think a stock analyist does?


 Nothing related to self driving cars technology. Again, find a chef or a painter opinions about self driving cars, and they will probably be more knowledgeable than a stock analyst. I have a surprise for you - *Stock Analysts Are More Biased Than You Think*



tomatopaste said:


> So Intel ran this ad on opening day of the NBA because self driving cars are still years away? Do I have that about right?


 Picard is not a real person, child.



tomatopaste said:


> So Waymo signed a deal with Avis for them to handle operations of their 600 Chrysler self driving mini vans in Phoenix, just Phoenix mind you, because self driving cars are still years away. Do I have that about right?


 You lost your mind child. Do you know you can buy land on the moon today? But in reality, that doesn't mean anything to anybody. Do you think they actually sell land on the moon because a real person can go there, build a house and live happily ever after? hahahaha....



tomatopaste said:


> But in fairness, what's he supposed to say: Yeah we're years behind Waymo and GM but please buy our stock anyway?


 Now you start questioning what self driving cars veterans are saying? Interesting... hmmmmm... For your pathetic logic troll, when Bryan Salesky says "We're playing the long game and *avoiding the hype* in our commitment to bring this important technology to maturity", Ford stock value goes down, because he brings idiots back to reality.

Hahahahaha.... you are such a ..... happy spirit!!! hahahahahah....


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

jocker12 said:


> Hahahahaha.... you are such a ..... happy spirit!!! hahahahahah....


The enthusiasm and naïveté of youth is cute isn't it?


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

jocker12 said:


> "We're playing the long game and *avoiding the hype* in our commitment to bring this important technology to maturity"[/URL][/SIZE][/B]


*

It's very refreshing to read comments from a rational and knowledgeable person.*


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

Years ago, just before the last two Matrix movies came out, there was a discussion board just like this one where a girl claimed to have a connection to the production and even described scenes she saw in vivid detail.

When the movies came out nothing that she described was in the finished films.

She faked us out the whole time.

Methinks the Tomato is a similar entity.


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> The enthusiasm and naïveté of youth is cute isn't it?


These millennials think the real life is a copy of Marvel, Disney or Nickelodeon and history is Game of Thrones and Lord of the Rings.... hahahaha... Why not consider the future be about self driving cars?... Sounds like a logical conclusion.



iheartuber said:


> When the movies came out nothing that she described was in the finished films.


A clinical case of a Cuckoo's nest in both situations.... They need to cut their wifi.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

jocker12 said:


> Bryan Salesky, CEO, Argo AI


He says 2021. Is this really who you think supports your argument?

"Somewhere between the 14th and 15th floors in a concrete stairwell, Bryan Salesky pauses, searching for the right words to explain his mission for the foreseeable future. He wants to give cars the eyes, ears, and brains they need to operate without humans. And he wants to do it for Ford Motor Company by 2021."

Almost all experts are saying 2018-2021.


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> He says 2021. Is this really who you think supports your argument?
> 
> "Somewhere between the 14th and 15th floors in a concrete stairwell, Bryan Salesky pauses, searching for the right words to explain his mission for the foreseeable future. He wants to give cars the eyes, ears, and brains they need to operate without humans. And he wants to do it for Ford Motor Company by 2021."
> 
> Almost all experts are saying 2018-2021.


What people *want to do* is relatively different from what they *actually can do*, don't you think?


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## Doowop (Jul 10, 2016)

http://www.oann.com/u-s-wants-to-re...hicles/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

jocker12 said:


> What people *want to do* is relatively different from what they *actually can do*, don't you think?


It's already being done. SDCs are already in service. So, clearly, he's wrong.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> It's already being done. SDCs are already in service. So, clearly, he's wrong.


No, they are not.


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## jocker12 (May 11, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> So, clearly, he's wrong.


So now, you say one of the veteran experts of self driving cars technology is wrong?


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