# Bye Uber: First look inside self-driving taxis



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/first-look-inside-waymo-self-driving-taxis/

Video of story at the link

Hundreds of autonomous driving Waymo vans operate daily within a roughly 100-square-mile area. For now, they typically have a safety driver up front who can take control. Screens inside show the riders what the Waymo "sees" around it. Cameras, sensors, radar and laser-based lidar allows the on-board computers to see up to three football fields in every direction - all technology Google developed itself and closely guards.

Waymo does intend to completely remove the safety driver eventually so they'll be no one up front at all. The app-based ride-hailing service is expected to launch in Arizona by the end of the year.


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

We may have self driving cars one day, but hell would probably freeze over first.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Pax have to actually send a request for one of these. Zero marketing so far. It's all hype. None of these companies is ever gonna make one penny of profit from ride-sharing, driverless or not.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Pax have to actually send a request for one of these. Zero marketing so far. It's all hype. None of these companies is ever gonna make one penny of profit from ride-sharing, driverless or not.


These cars cost too much, they haven't figured out the time it takes to go to pick the person up too so a minimum $7 ride will be a total loser for them. No one is going to pay $50 for a short ride which is what they would need to make these profitable even when the backup driver is gone. Plus it's only in one city that they have been mapping out for years. so yeah it's all hype but it should hurt Uber's IPO if it gets out there that Amazon wants to enter the rideshare game.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> These cars cost too much, they haven't figured out the time it takes to go to pick the person up too so a minimum $7 ride will be a total loser for them. No one is going to pay $50 for a short ride which is what they would need to make these profitable even when the backup driver is gone. Plus it's only in one city that they have been mapping out for years. so yeah it's all hype but it should hurt Uber's IPO if it gets out there that Amazon wants to enter the rideshare game.


I was able to make them profitable at $2 per mile. They can run 23 hours per day, with an hour for gas and robo maintenance. $400 per day gross per car works out well. The big issue is death if the car. At 160 hours per week in constant operation mode the car will be dead in 2 quick years. That's almost $300,000 in gross revenue.
Those numbers work.
$1 per mile doesn't work.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> I was able to make them profitable at $2 per mile. They can run 23 hours per day, with an hour for gas and robo maintenance. $400 per day gross per car works out well. The big issue is death if the car. At 160 hours per week in constant operation mode the car will be dead in 2 quick years. That's almost $300,000 in gross revenue.
> Those numbers work.
> $1 per mile doesn't work.


The issue is do people need them 23 hours a day? Did you take into account rush hour traffic twice a day? and waiting time which is 5 minutes extra for each pickup? There are a lot of variables that don't make it profitable.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> The issue is do people need them 23 hours a day? Did you take into account rush hour traffic twice a day? and waiting time which is 5 minutes extra for each pickup? There are a lot of variables that don't make it profitable.


dude I operated a cab company that I built by hand for almost a decade so of course I take in all factors all metrics all expenses and many of the things that other people don't take into account like variables I saw during that decade.

People need cabs 24 hours a day. They just don't need as many cabs between midnight and 6 a.m., but there's definitely a market for calves during those hours as well. Also 11 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. is pretty slow but it's not entirely dead.

and the thing about self-driving cars is they don't need to pee they don't need to eat they don't need to sleep. They don't care about anything at all even if there's no business and you told them to stay at 33rd and 3rd they will just idle until pinged.
Human drivers get hungry thirsty and the Bladder gets full and eventually a real driver will say **** it. Robots can't say **** it.


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## HotUberMess (Feb 25, 2018)

This guy must be the self-driver


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> dude I operated a cab company that I built by hand for almost a decade so of course I take in all factors all metrics all expenses and many of the things that other people don't take into account like variables I saw during that decade.
> 
> People need cabs 24 hours a day. They just don't need as many cabs between midnight and 6 a.m., but there's definitely a market for calves during those hours as well. Also 11 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. is pretty slow but it's not entirely dead.
> 
> ...


So you think they can do $7 short minimum rides that are more than $2 a mile and still profit?

Yes Manhattan is a 24 hour city, but where they are doing these tests is not. So on week days you may get some fares overnight, but your fleet will not buy busy at all hours so factor that in. Not only that but even Uber said totally driverless is 10 to 15 years away. These are tests and the first pax killed inside the car even due to a drunk human driver hitting them is gonna be a problem for them. Then the first pedestrian they kill will ground them all. Then the first pax killed in a self driving car will ground them all.


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## HotUberMess (Feb 25, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> So you think they can do $7 short minimum rides that are more than $2 a mile and still profit?
> 
> Yes Manhattan is a 24 hour city, but where they are doing these tests is not. So on week days you may get some fares overnight, but your fleet will not buy busy at all hours so factor that in. Not only that but even Uber said totally driverless is 10 to 15 years away. These are tests and the first pax killed inside the car even due to a drunk human driver hitting them is gonna be a problem for them. Then the first pedestrian they kill will ground them all. Then the first pax killed in a self driving car will ground them all.


Way more common than deaths will be food spills and bodily fluids. These cars are going to become rolling trash heaps.

Also, I assume one rider has to be behind the wheel for "safety"? Well get ready for the safety driver to kill someone while driving intoxicated.

This idea is so forking phenominally bad, it's mind-boggling.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

SECOND LOOK
inside an unsafe
Unsupervised
Unattended vehicle
Used by the public at large

No Driver = NO SECURITY !


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

they want to emulate a company that doesn't have a viable business model. genius!


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

BYE S.D.C. 's !


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

HotUberMess said:


> Way more common than deaths will be food spills and bodily fluids. These cars are going to become rolling trash heaps.
> 
> Also, I assume one rider has to be behind the wheel for "safety"? Well get ready for the safety driver to kill someone while driving intoxicated.
> 
> This idea is so forking phenominally bad, it's mind-boggling.


No the safety driver is only until and if they can make it driverless. Otherwise why have a driverless car and pay someone there to babysit the car? I bet the safety drivers earn more than Uber drivers do and are employees.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> So you think they can do $7 short minimum rides that are more than $2 a mile and still profit?
> 
> Yes Manhattan is a 24 hour city, but where they are doing these tests is not. So on week days you may get some fares overnight, but your fleet will not buy busy at all hours so factor that in. Not only that but even Uber said totally driverless is 10 to 15 years away. These are tests and the first pax killed inside the car even due to a drunk human driver hitting them is gonna be a problem for them. Then the first pedestrian they kill will ground them all. Then the first pax killed in a self driving car will ground them all.


All cities are 24 hours. I worked overnight all last year here and did $150 between 1am and 6am most nights.
You might not understand how metrics work. Put 10 cars in a neighborhood and watch demand closely. If you have more pings than cars, increase the fleet by .25. do this until pings are met.
Only need one cab on the overnight? Step the overnight fleet down to 2 cabs in the neighborhood. The bsckub cab might only get 3 pings all night but they are pings you won't lose. Depends on if you are willing to lose pings to maximize profits.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

It would take more than an hour a day to refuel the car.
Cars SHOULD return to base 4 times daily for cleaning, inspection, maintenence and fueling.

Anything less is Negligent.

Someone may defecate or urinate all over the seats.
Someone may cut all seatbelt straps with a razor.
REMEMBER THESE CARS ARE UNATTENDED !

Do you WANT an UNSUPERVISED CAR out there for 23 hours with NO KNOWLEGE of its condition ?


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> All cities are 24 hours. I worked overnight all last year here and did $150 between 1am and 6am most nights.
> You might not understand how metrics work. Put 10 cars in a neighborhood and watch demand closely. If you have more pings than cars, increase the fleet by .25. do this until pings are met.
> Only need one cab on the overnight? Step the overnight fleet down to 2 cabs in the neighborhood. The bsckub cab might only get 3 pings all night but they are pings you won't lose. Depends on if you are willing to lose pings to maximize profits.


My city is 14 hours. Up at 7 am asleep by 9pm

I'm glad you worked out the metrics and think it will work, it's a pipe dream.

and if you think drivers cherry pick, that's all these SDC will do, take all the good rides and leave the junky ones to the regular Uber drivers that have to coexist in the beginning of this SDC taxi scam.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> My city is 14 hours. Up at 7 am asleep by 9pm
> 
> I'm glad you worked out the metrics and think it will work, it's a pipe dream.
> 
> and if you think drivers cherry pick, that's all these SDC will do, take all the good rides and leave the junky ones to the regular Uber drivers that have to coexist in the beginning of this SDC taxi scam.


How can a programmed robot cherry pick?


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Cherry Pick Algorithm.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> How can a programmed robot cherry pick?


How can it not? You just code the closest most lucrative rides for yourself.

You think there isn't already code for new drivers to do well the first few weeks, especially if they signed on to a bonus that says they will earn so much in so many rides or Uber will pay the difference?

You think there isn't code if you made too much money to slow you down?

Or to send nicer cars to better areas, or send lower rated drivers to worse rides or worse pickup areas?

Same way a human dispatcher is not going to send a cab to do a $5 ride when it's busy and will make them wait and say nothing is available and catch up on the better rides or tell them there is nothing available.

You ever hear of Uber God Mode Code?


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> How can it not? You just code the closest most lucrative rides for yourself.
> 
> You think there isn't already code for new drivers to do well the first few weeks, especially if they signed on to a bonus that says they will earn so much in so many rides or Uber will pay the difference?
> 
> ...


But you don't understand how robots work. They have no sense of self. One guy owns all of them. It doesn't matter which car gets what there's no people involved to split the money with, the owner gets all of the revenue and all (if any) of the profit.

none of these proposed self-driving car companies is planning on letting individual owner-operators own part of the fleet.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> But you don't understand how robots work. They have no sense of self. One guy owns all of them. It doesn't matter which car gets what there's no people involved to split the money with, the owner gets all of the revenue and all (if any) of the profit.
> 
> none of these proposed self-driving car companies is planning on letting individual owner-operators own part of the fleet.


These are not robots, they are machines who are sent app info to get to the pax.

and you do not understand how business works. They will go for maximum profits not for what's good or fair for the consumers.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> These are not robots, they are machines who are sent app info to get to the pax.
> 
> and you do not understand how business works. They will go for maximum profits not for what's good or fair for the consumers.


Wow. How many businesses have you built and then sold?
This should be good.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Wow. How many businesses have you built and then sold?
> This should be good.


1 million,


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## HotUberMess (Feb 25, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> No the safety driver is only until and if they can make it driverless. Otherwise why have a driverless car and pay someone there to babysit the car? I bet the safety drivers earn more than Uber drivers do and are employees.


Not gonna happen. Too many rogue parameters.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

HotUberMess said:


> Not gonna happen. Too many rogue parameters.


You don't understand the purpose of a self driving car. If you need to pay someone to be behind the wheel what's the point? It may take a while but that is the purpose of this whole thing to get rid of the driver, otherwise Uber would buy cheap cars and pay people to drive them. They can't do that because their profit comes from not paying for cars or gas or maintenance and still keeping most of the fare.


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## HotUberMess (Feb 25, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> You don't understand the purpose of a self driving car. If you need to pay someone to be behind the wheel what's the point? It may take a while but that is the purpose of this whole thing to get rid of the driver, otherwise Uber would buy cheap cars and pay people to drive them.


Why would you assume I don't understand that? Nothing in my comment mentioned the purpose of SDCs, only the feasibility.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> I was able to make them profitable at $2 per mile. They can run 23 hours per day, with an hour for gas and robo maintenance. $400 per day gross per car works out well. The big issue is death if the car. At 160 hours per week in constant operation mode the car will be dead in 2 quick years. That's almost $300,000 in gross revenue.
> Those numbers work.
> $1 per mile doesn't work.[/
> 
> ...


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

HotUberMess said:


> Why would you assume I don't understand that? Nothing in my comment mentioned the purpose of SDCs, only the feasibility.


Because of what my post said and your response to it. 
You disputed driverless cars because of rogue parameters when I mentioned a safety driver.


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## HotUberMess (Feb 25, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> Because of what my post said and your response to it.
> You disputed driverless cars because of rogue parameters when I mentioned a safety driver.


Rogue parameters meaning kids running into the street, potholes, sunlight glinting off of buildings and blinding camera lenses, passengers vomiting, having sex, drinking alcohol.. stuff like that. And my response was to your comment "SDCs will eventually get here".


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

HotUberMess said:


> Rogue parameters meaning kids running into the street, potholes, sunlight glinting off of buildings and blinding camera lenses, passengers vomiting, having sex, drinking alcohol.. stuff like that. And my response was to your comment "SDCs will eventually get here".


They will, it could be 10 years it could be 50 or 100 but they will get here. Kids running or cats will have eventually have risk with a SDC than a human driver has. SDC only need thermal imaging and code to know when and how a person is moving and in what direction. Pax vomiting they will be charged and the car takes itself in to be cleaned. Also these technologies see things in spectrums we don't. they can see in total darkness, radar, lidar etc. They just need AI to learn how to drive the way people do and understand the world and they will be able to do it better than us. Eventually cars will communicate with each other, even if there are human drivers in some to the point where almost all accidents can be avoided besides slipping on ice which can't be avoided now either.

Things like sun glare won't affect them just like you can wear glasses or pull down the visor to block direct rays, these cameras will have filters so it's not even an issue. These cameras are not using human vision anyway.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

they have ordered 60,000 of these hybrid minivans 
Put 2000 of these vans in San Francisco and you would just wipe out 
Most of the drivers $$$


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## kcdrvr15 (Jan 10, 2017)

tohunt4me said:


> It would take more than an hour a day to refuel the car.
> Cars SHOULD return to base 4 times daily for cleaning, inspection, maintenence and fueling.
> 
> Anything less is Negligent.
> ...


I was thinking of the same thing, only with all the Luddites out there, a unsupervised car could become scrap in just a few minutes.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

mbd said:


> they have ordered 60,000 of these hybrid minivans
> Put 2000 of these vans in San Francisco and you would just wipe out
> Most of the drivers $$$


But they won't be able to make money until the safety driver is gone unless they can create apps for independent contractor safety drivers and pay them $3 an hour.


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## touberornottouber (Aug 12, 2016)

Lee239 said:


> and if you think drivers cherry pick, that's all these SDC will do, take all the good rides and leave the junky ones to the regular Uber drivers that have to coexist in the beginning of this SDC taxi scam.


That's a good point actually and probably what they will do. They will take all the profitable runs for their own SDV where they keep 100% fare. We will get the short $3 rides where they take 55% of the fare. Or maybe we will get all the rides from say a grocery store where the rider has 20 bags of groceries and is going 7 blocks.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

touberornottouber said:


> That's a good point actually and probably what they will do. They will take all the profitable runs for their own SDV where they keep 100% fare. We will get the short $3 rides where they take 55% of the fare. Or maybe we will get all the rides from say a grocery store where the rider has 20 bags of groceries and is going 7 blocks.


Lol!
Once(if) they successfully roll out SDCs there will never be a human driver again.


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## Bbonez (Aug 10, 2018)

Will there be a max weight limit? What happens when 12 college kids that weigh less then a normal family of 6 try to squeeze in? Will it know? Or what if someone orders one at home depot to deliver 100 90# bags of cement home? Also, some municipalities will never allow them.


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## touberornottouber (Aug 12, 2016)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Lol!
> Once(if) they successfully roll out SDCs there will never be a human driver again.


I doubt that. At least right away. A lot of people will not ride without a human driver. It will probably be that way for a decade. Just as there are people out there today who will not use a smart phone and insist on using old flip phones. Also we will get all the "hassle" rides. These will be the rides the SDV can't easily do. Of course there will be no extra pay for it.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Lol!
> Once(if) they successfully roll out SDCs there will never be a human driver again.


There is no way they will be able to replace human Uber driver when they first go SDC. It will take a while and it may not even be profitable in smaller markets. Not only that but when the tech becomes available people will be able to buy cars and rent them out in self driving mode. They are not going to put SDC in smaller towns that won't be busy 24/7, that' s why you have drivers working for a few bucks a day. The last 3 days I drove I only grossed $15 each day and that was it. I'm not gonna be on call for zero profit after deductions.


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

lol It's "secretive" 'cause it's all bs. They only handpicked people that will go along with the program and not talk about how the car isn't driving itself all the time.

That video itself only shows about a minute of the car driving itself and obviously they're only using video where the human didn't immediately have to take over and the car didn't run a red light like we've seen them do. lol

10 million miles driven and for some reason they needed to be all "secretive" about not allowing people to film the car being driven around? lol

These things are nothing but death traps and there will always be a human driver in there which defeats the purpose of having a so-called Self Driving Car.

All it takes is the human driver not continuously paying attention and then "boom" you're dead or a pedestrian like Elaine Herzberg is dead.


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## Fuzzyelvis (Dec 7, 2014)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> How can a programmed robot cherry pick?


By knowing the destination for one.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

10 million miles and zero paying customers.
/Dumb


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