# Next step in driverless cars: Boot the driver



## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Google-owned Waymo is on pace to have its fleet of driverless Chrysler Pacificas moving riders as soon as next month's opening ceremony for the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea. (wait and minute, that's in less than a month)
Waymo already has the Pacificas on Phoenix-area roads without any drivers inside. A Waymo spokesman said Monday that the company is still on track with its announcement n November that a local rider service using the driverless vehicles would happen in the "next few months."
(Someone make sure all sharp objects are removed within a 3 mile radius of Jockey)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-step-driverless-cars-boot-driver/1019647001/


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## HighRollinG (Aug 13, 2017)

who loads the bags?


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

HighRollinG said:


> who loads the bags?


same people that load the bags now.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> Google-owned Waymo is on pace to have its fleet of driverless Chrysler Pacificas moving riders as soon as next month's opening ceremony for the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea. (wait and minute, that's in less than a month)
> Waymo already has the Pacificas on Phoenix-area roads without any drivers inside. A Waymo spokesman said Monday that the company is still on track with its announcement n November that a local rider service using the driverless vehicles would happen in the "next few months."
> (Someone make sure all sharp objects are removed within a 3 mile radius of Jockey)
> 
> https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-step-driverless-cars-boot-driver/1019647001/


I thought you predicted Waymo would be ready in December.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

goneubering said:


> I thought you predicted Waymo would be ready in December.


There's an automatic two month grace period.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

Guys, no need to bust tomatopaste 's chops on two measly months.

Wait a year.

Hell, wait two years

It's cool I can wait...

Again, to anyone catching my talking points for the first time, here they are:

tomatopaste makes a lot of aggressive and some might say unrealistic predictions about a super-successful world of SDC taxi services eclipsing the rideshare biz that Uber today dominates.

My response to those bold claims are as follows:

While I don't doubt that this could be possible "someday", there are simply too many moving parts involved to make the "immediate" believable to me. Some of those moving parts are, but are not limited to:
- SDCs are still not 100% safe, as evidenced by any number of accidents that you can google
- the running of a taxi business is nuts. Are people like Google or GM or whoever up to the challenge?
- establishing an SDC taxi biz is nothing like how Uber is set up because Uber makes all drivers independent contractors who absorb all the responsibility. A fleet service will have to assume the responsibilities which can be anything from just annoying (daily car washes) to highly litigious (accidents, lawsuits). How long will it take for these guys to say "screw this. Not worth the headaches"..?
-according to the tomatopaste they plan on charging bargain basement prices (cheaper than Uber) which makes me wonder how long that can stay afloat.
-finally, there's the people's comfort level with being in a car that no human has control over. Some may not care, sure. But enough to make a difference?

Despite tomatopaste 's boastful claims (commonly called "PR hype"), which are no doubt bought and paid for by the very companies launching SDCs, it is my humble opinion that for the reasons stated above and any others I may not have thought of, there are just too many variables standing in the way of the rapid establishment as TP claims.

A couple months isn't enough to say "gotcha". Wait a couple years.

And cue TP's corporate BS rebuttal in 3... 2... 1....


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Guys, no need to bust tomatopaste 's chops on two measly months.
> 
> Wait a year.
> 
> ...


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


>


Missed ya TP

happy New Year!


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

I envisage a new business model for Black/Lux passengers who will have a choice of Chauffeured or SD cars.

I’m hoping my Tesla X will one day be SD. But it’s development to that point is going a lot slower than I’d hoped here in OZ.

I’ll employ a few students, give them a step-through and coordinate a concierge service when & where needed for clients. 

80% of my International airport arrivals are folk to a 5 Star hotel. So all they need is for someone to “meet & greet” then escort them to the waiting car, protect them from the onerous task of finding the car, opening the doors and loading the luggage. 

Because these tasks are below their pay scale, there’s a Concierge waiting at the hotel at the other end. Or one of mine, having been dispatched to the rider's mansion if they don’t have domestic help to open doors and unload the car. 

There WILL be a market for people WILLING to pay to ride without sharing their personal space with a driver.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Sydney Uber said:


> I envisage a new business model for Black/Lux passengers who will have a choice of Chauffeured or SD cars.
> 
> I'm hoping my Tesla X will one day be SD. But it's development to that point is going a lot slower than I'd hoped here in OZ.
> 
> ...


99.9 percent of pax will just load their own bags. Just like 99.9 percent of drivers learned to pump their own gas.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> 99.9 percent of pax will just load their own bags. Just like 99.9 percent of drivers learned to pump their own gas.


A fair amount of pax cry like little babies about having to load their own bags. Personally I think they're all just a bunch of whiners but perhaps some are legitimately too weak to handle the bags.

To keep the peace I just help them but just a heads up to whoever mans the "customer service line"- you WILL get complaints.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

tomatopaste said:


> 99.9 percent of pax will just load their own bags. Just like 99.9 percent of drivers learned to pump their own gas.


I love it when you get so forceful and assertive like that!

If you believe that only 10 passengers in a thousand PREFER not to lift and load their luggage, then you are misguided. But you have become accustomed to being dictated to by McDonald's, Uber Lyft and the choices they make for you. Allowing no personalisation of service, no value add of the human element. All this whilst having no real choice of vehicles but whole categories.

Happy to find your desires filtered by social media and commercial imperatives, you are part of mindless supplicants happy for robots to do ALL your thinking.

Me, I'm happy about the advent of robot cars, it simply gives my clients another CHOICE. But I won't be forcing them down their throats.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Sydney Uber said:


> I love it when you get so forceful and assertive like that!
> 
> If you believe that only 10 passengers in a thousand PREFER not to lift and load their luggage, then you are misguided. But you have become accustomed to being dictated to by McDonald's, Uber Lyft and the choices they make for you. Allowing no personalisation of service, no value add of the human element. All this whilst having no real choice of vehicles but whole categories.
> 
> ...


It is pretty sexy. How many people have someone else pump their own gas?


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

Sydney Uber said:


> I love it when you get so forceful and assertive like that!
> 
> If you believe that only 10 passengers in a thousand PREFER not to lift and load their luggage, then you are misguided. But you have become accustomed to being dictated to by McDonald's, Uber Lyft and the choices they make for you. Allowing no personalisation of service, no value add of the human element. All this whilst having no real choice of vehicles but whole categories.
> 
> ...


The Tomato was an Uber driver once. And completed the embarrassingly low 450 lifetime rides.

So he has very little to go by.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> The Tomato was an Uber driver once. And completed the embarrassingly low 450 lifetime rides.
> 
> So he has very little to go by.


Iheart tried out for the part of the Indian in a Village People cover band but was told he's too pasty


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Iheart tried out for the part of the Indian in a Village People cover band but was told he's too pasty
> 
> View attachment 195420


Are you kidding? I rocked that ish!


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

tomatopaste said:


> It is pretty sexy. How many people have someone else pump their own gas?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

iheartuber said:


> SDCs are still not 100% safe, as evidenced by any number of accidents that you can google


They'll never be 100% safe, nor do they need to be.

They've (Waymos) never caused an accident.



iheartuber said:


> the running of a taxi business is nuts. Are people like Google or GM or whoever up to the challenge?


I know, right? How could two of the most diverse and powerful corporations in the world run a taxi company?! That crap's hard. You have to have , like, apps and tires and stuff.



iheartuber said:


> establishing an SDC taxi biz is nothing like how Uber is set up because Uber makes all drivers independent contractors who absorb all the responsibility. A fleet service will have to assume the responsibilities which can be anything from just annoying (daily car washes) to highly litigious (accidents, lawsuits). How long will it take for these guys to say "screw this. Not worth the headaches"..?


It's amazing to me that Uber drivers understand this but not companies worth a combined trillions in a race for their very existence.


iheartuber said:


> according to the tomatopaste they plan on charging bargain basement prices (cheaper than Uber) which makes me wonder how long that can stay afloat.


Experts say they can go as low as $0.35 a mile and still make a hefty profit.



iheartuber said:


> finally, there's the people's comfort level with being in a car that no human has control over. Some may not care, sure. But enough to make a difference?


25% will ride in one today.

50% are fence sitters.

25% say they never will.

Twenty five percent is way, way, way, more than they need to launch and persuade the 50%, followed by the last 25%.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> I know, right? How could two of the most diverse and powerful corporations in the world run a taxi company?! That crap's hard. You have to have , like, apps and tires and stuff..


Just because a company is successful in one area doesn't mean they are automatically qualified to run another kind of business successfully. History is littered with such failures. It's hubris.



RamzFanz said:


> It's amazing to me that Uber drivers understand this but not companies worth a combined trillions in a race for their very existence.


So your argument is that because they have a lot of money that means they can do anything? That's like saying just because Bill Gates is rich he's qualified to perform heart surgery.



RamzFanz said:


> Experts say they can go as low as $0.35 a mile and still make a hefty profit.


I'm not a doctor nor have I ever gone to med school. In no way can I ever be considered an expert on medicine.

Unless your "experts" who made that outrageous claim have ever run a taxi company or even just worked as an Uber driver then they are no more of an expert on crunching the numbers on a transportation business than I'm an expert on medicine.



RamzFanz said:


> 25% will ride in one today.
> 
> 50% are fence sitters.
> 
> ...


Since you pulled these numbers out of your butt, what else do you have up there?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

iheartuber said:


> Just because a company is successful in one area doesn't mean they are automatically qualified to run another kind of business successfully. History is littered with such failures. It's hubris.


No, it means they have the funds to hire many many people qualified to run another kind of business. Oh, and they have. They've hired many experts and partnered with major corporations.



iheartuber said:


> So your argument is that because they have a lot of money that means they can do anything? That's like saying just because Bill Gates is rich he's qualified to perform heart surgery.


Bill Gates hires the guy who is qualified to perform heart surgery. Not just a good one, the best one.

This is a race for a $14T worldwide market. They have sucked the market dry of talent because they have recruited so much talent.

This is probably the largest single goal undertaking by corporations worldwide in the written history of mankind.



iheartuber said:


> I'm not a doctor nor have I ever gone to med school. In no way can I ever be considered an expert on medicine.
> 
> Unless your "experts" who made that outrageous claim have ever run a taxi company or even just worked as an Uber driver then they are no more of an expert on crunching the numbers on a transportation business than I'm an expert on medicine.


Medicine? That's a big world.

Taxi companies are a dime a dozen.

Do you really, really, deep down, actually think they can't run a taxi company? DiDi? Microsoft? Google? Ford? Apple? GM? Who am I kidding, I'm not going to name them all. Every major auto and almost ever major tech company in the world.

I absolutely GUARANTEE I could run a taxi company. I've run companies way bigger than most of them. Could I run Google?! Come on.



iheartuber said:


> Since you pulled these numbers out of your butt, what else do you have up there?


Let me check...

corn...

a peanut...

and an SDC denier.

Dude, they aren't coming, they're here. It only grows now and there will be a tidal wave of newcomers soon enough.

A TIDAL WAVE.

The Genesis happened. Years ago. Now they expand. Not only are they already doing it, they're beating almost all expectations. WAY ahead. And it's not slowing, it's accelerating.

Think of it like wearing wool socks in the summer in boots while having athlete's foot fungus.

What happens?

sʍoɹƃ ʇI :∀


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> No, it means they have the funds to hire many many people qualified to run another kind of business. Oh, and they have. They've hired many experts and partnered with major corporations.


My boy, that's NOT ever a recipe for success in business. It has to start from the top. The leaders have to know what they're doing first. You can't just "hire" a whole bunch of "experts".



RamzFanz said:


> This is a race for a $14T worldwide market. They have sucked the market dry of talent because they have recruited so much talent.
> 
> This is probably the largest single goal undertaking by corporations worldwide in the written history of mankind.


You wanna know what's funny? They said the exact same thing about the Segway. Said it was gonna be a huge multi-Trillion dollar industry, said it was gonna "change mankind". Did it? Nah. There are many red flags that indicate the same thing is going to happen here.



RamzFanz said:


> Medicine? That's a big world.
> 
> Taxi companies are a dime a dozen.
> 
> ...


Sir, ANY business needs to be run by people who understand that business inside and out in order for it to be done successfully.



RamzFanz said:


> Let me check...
> 
> corn...
> 
> ...


Let me be clear- I'm not an SDC denier... I'm a denier that SDCs will change the world in anything less than 10 years (maybe even 20 or 30; maybe even never).

In my opinion will SDCs be like the Segway in 5 years, in that they're there, you can use them if you want to, but only a really small number of people do? Yes, that I believe.

It's importanr to make that distinction because your argument gets confused if you don't.


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## Mista T (Aug 16, 2017)

I have people pump my gas for me. So does everyone else in my city. It's against the law to pump your own gas in most of Oregon.

And I could run Uber better than they do it. It would be easy... match drivers with riders, make money on the overrides, and stop committing crimes. Reduce legal expenses by 90%.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

iheartuber said:


> My boy, that's NOT ever a recipe for success in business. It has to start from the top. The leaders have to know what they're doing first. You can't just "hire" a whole bunch of "experts".


They hire them as the leaders.

Do you think Bank of America's CEO wrote their app? Or do you maybe think they hired experts to run that division?



iheartuber said:


> You wanna know what's funny? They said the exact same thing about the Segway. Said it was gonna be a huge multi-Trillion dollar industry, said it was gonna "change mankind". Did it? Nah. There are many red flags that indicate the same thing is going to happen here.


No one said the Segway was the largest single efferot every undertaken by corporations in history.

There are no red flags. It's already happened.



iheartuber said:


> Sir, ANY business needs to be run by people who understand that business inside and out in order for it to be done successfully.


Leaders set the goals, talented people carry them out.



iheartuber said:


> Let me be clear- I'm not an SDC denier... I'm a denier that SDCs will change the world in anything less than 10 years (maybe even 20 or 30; maybe even never).
> 
> In my opinion will SDCs be like the Segway in 5 years, in that they're there, you can use them if you want to, but only a really small number of people do? Yes, that I believe.
> 
> It's importanr to make that distinction because your argument gets confused if you don't.


This comparison is silly. There are a LOT of reasons not to ride a segway that are unrelated to SDCs.

When people are offered a safer far more convenient transportation choice that costs less than car ownership, and they've witnessed and heard from many others how it really works, they will switch in droves. The current market, about 25% of all people polled, is much larger than needed to get this off the ground.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume almost every major tech and auto company in the world has already looked at the market they're dumping hundreds of billions into before dumping that money.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume almost every major tech and auto company in the world has already looked at the market they're dumping hundreds of billions into before dumping that money.


Annnd.... that's why your argument fails: because it's all based on an assumption. You know what they say about assuming? Make an ass of u and me.

Listen man, I accept the fact that the only thing that will make you see the light is when we're 10 years down the road and SDCs are still nowhere near level 5.

It's ok I can wait.. see you in 10 years


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Annnd.... that's why your argument fails: because it's all based on an assumption. You know what they say about assuming? Make an ass of u and me.
> 
> Listen man, I accept the fact that the only thing that will make you see the light is when we're 10 years down the road and SDCs are still nowhere near level 5.
> 
> It's ok I can wait.. see you in 10 years


You'll be eating crow within a few weeks, not ten years.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> You'll be eating crow within a few weeks, not ten years.


You wanna lay money on that? Tell you what. The date is now Jan 22

I'll check back with you on April 22. That's 12 weeks. 12 weeks is certainly more than "a few weeks"

We can reassess then.

See you on April 22


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## Skorpio (Oct 17, 2017)

The day driveless car gona kill people.
Uber will need more drivers.
But all the drivers available is already deactivated.. or quit.


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> You wanna lay money on that? Tell you what. The date is now Jan 22
> 
> I'll check back with you on April 22. That's 12 weeks. 12 weeks is certainly more than "a few weeks"
> 
> ...


Yes, 20 Sweat coins. Start moving.


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## Working4peanuts (Jan 16, 2018)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/01/22/uber-boss-says-driverless-cars-least-decade-away/


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> You wanna lay money on that? Tell you what. The date is now Jan 22
> 
> I'll check back with you on April 22. That's 12 weeks. 12 weeks is certainly more than "a few weeks"
> 
> ...


Waymo announced today they are testing in Atlanta, their 25th city. They are getting all the bugs worked out in Phoenix but after Phoenix opening a new city will be like flipping a switch.

Waymo confirmed at CES last week they are on track to launch their commercial self driving taxi service in Phoenix within weeks.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/waymo-pits-its-tech-against-hotlantas-notoriously-tough-traffic/

GM will mass produce the Cruise AV in 2019


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## Working4peanuts (Jan 16, 2018)

Can't wait for that self driving car to get called to the hood. 5 minutes later there won't be a silicon chip left on that car.

What's a sdc going to do when some ahole orders a pool and 4 people get in the car? Tell them they're not going to take them? What if it's only 2 people but they're really fat and the car can't tell the difference?

What happens when someone gets in with an open container?

What happens when someone lights up a joint in the car?

What happens when grandpa poops on the seat?

What happens when 2 poos order the same car and they both have service animals? And the dogs fight?

Self driving cars are a wet dream for uber. Not going to happen as long as people are assholes.


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## Mista T (Aug 16, 2017)

Working4peanuts said:


> Can't wait for that self driving car to get called to the hood. 5 minutes later there won't be a silicon chip left on that car.
> 
> What's a sdc going to do when some ahole orders a pool and 4 people get in the car? Tell them they're not going to take them? What if it's only 2 people but they're really fat and the car can't tell the difference?
> 
> ...


Those are some fun scenarios I look forward to. And they can't blame the driver!


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Working4peanuts said:


> Can't wait for that self driving car to get called to the hood. 5 minutes later there won't be a silicon chip left on that car.
> 
> What's a sdc going to do when some ahole orders a pool and 4 people get in the car? Tell them they're not going to take them? What if it's only 2 people but they're really fat and the car can't tell the difference?
> 
> ...


The passenger compartment will be towed in via an armoured personnel carrier.










Next question.



tomatopaste said:


> The passenger compartment will be towed in via an armoured personnel carrier.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not everyone in the hood is a hoodlum. All acts of vandalism will be caught on camera and the videos will be made available to the community. My guess is the hoodlums will be rounded up rather quickly with help from their neighbors who value the service.


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## Working4peanuts (Jan 16, 2018)

tomatopaste said:


> The passenger compartment will be towed in via an armoured personnel carrier.
> 
> View attachment 197656
> 
> ...


Where do you keep the water and mints in that passenger compartment?


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

Working4peanuts said:


> Where do you keep the water and mints in that passenger compartment?


In a compartment on the ceiling. They will be dispensed at the robot's discretion.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Waymo announced today they are testing in Atlanta, their 25th city. They are getting all the bugs worked out in Phoenix but after Phoenix opening a new city will be like flipping a switch.
> 
> Waymo confirmed at CES last week they are on track to launch their commercial self driving taxi service in Phoenix within weeks.
> 
> ...


Sir, we've been over this a thousand times- just because Waymo announces something doesn't mean the general public are going to flock to it.

Once upon a time the Segway was announced and we all know how much (or how little) the public bought that one.

See you in 12 weeks...


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Sir, we've been over this a thousand times- just because Waymo announces something doesn't mean the general public are going to flock to it.
> 
> Once upon a time the Segway was announced and we all know how much (or how little) the public bought that one.
> 
> See you in 12 weeks...


Even Uber says they'll be operating self driving taxis in 18 months. So virtually everyone and their mother will be self driving in 18 months, but somehow you're gonna still be driving for Uber in 10 years. Those gotta be some amazing mints you're handing out.

*Uber CEO hopes to have self-driving cars in service in 18 months*
*https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/23/uber-ceo-hopes-to-have-self-driving-cars-in-service-in-18-months/*


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> Even Uber says they'll be operating self driving taxis in 18 months. So virtually everyone and their mother will be self driving in 18 months, but somehow you're gonna still be driving for Uber in 10 years. Those gotta be some amazing mints you're handing out.
> 
> *Uber CEO hopes to have self-driving cars in service in 18 months*
> *https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/23/uber-ceo-hopes-to-have-self-driving-cars-in-service-in-18-months/*


Spoiler alert: Uber lies!

Hey man, look... we go over this like crazy again and again. It's gotten to the point where the only way I can show you is for you to see it actually happen.

So, see you in 12 weeks

I can wait


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## tomatopaste (Apr 11, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Spoiler alert: Uber lies!
> 
> Hey man, look... we go over this like crazy again and again. It's gotten to the point where the only way I can show you is for you to see it actually happen.
> 
> ...


That doesn't sound like much fun.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

tomatopaste said:


> That doesn't sound like much fun.


when 12 weeks comes and goes and every Waymo SDC taxi venture in every city it's in is still in the "middling" stage as I predict, not the "set the world on fire stage" as you predict, only then on that issue I can say: "haha"

I'll still tell you "haha" on other things in the meantime.


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