# Disappearing Surge Theory



## Alloverthemap (Sep 3, 2017)

It seems that Uber is cutting off its nose to spite its face by eliminating surges for the drivers. Passengers are left high and dry as the number of drivers wanes. Uber revenue takes a hit with all those eager riders unable to get a ride.

At least that's the confoundingly obvious take. But what if we went in another direction with this.

Perhaps it's the "wise guys" who are the ones causing Uber all the legal headaches. Not the grunts and grinders who will put in the 70 hours a week to gross 55k annually, but the sharks who strike when map heats up. 

For argument's sake, let's assume that the wise guys really don't need the job. They're just exploiting an inviting situation and cleaning up when the rates surge. If they don't need the job, perhaps somewhere along the line they're more likely to get frisky with passengers than the drivers who do rely on the income to make ends meet.

If Uber's data shows this to be the case -- again, speculatively -- this would be one way to clean up a persistent problem that might be costing them exorbitant legal bills.

So the calculation is made: Fewer drivers means fewer billable trips. But it might also mean a substantial reduction in legal headaches.

Nothing else makes sense to me.


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## touberornottouber (Aug 12, 2016)

The number of drivers isn't waning though, sadly. I hate saying it but many drivers are dumb and ignorant. I see it all the time here where a driver thinks their costs are only 15 cents per paid mile or that their dead (non-paid) miles simply don't count for expenses.


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## Alloverthemap (Sep 3, 2017)

touberornottouber said:


> The number of drivers isn't waning though, sadly. I hate saying it but many drivers are dumb and ignorant. I see it all the time here where a driver thinks their costs are only 15 cents per paid mile or that their dead (non-paid) miles simply don't count for expenses.


My experience is the number of drivers is either waning or the number of passengers is rising. Rare is the day where I get to go home uninterrupted by a ping. During the surge era, this would happen with depressing frequency.

So, at least in my case, the flow is much better than it was.


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## Disgusted Driver (Jan 9, 2015)

Alloverthemap said:


> My experience is the number of drivers is either waning or the number of passengers is rising. Rare is the day where I get to go home uninterrupted by a ping. During the surge era, this would happen with depressing frequency.
> 
> So, at least in my case, the flow is much better than it was.


I don't think you are in a particularly representative market to make generalizations like that.


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## Abraxas79 (Feb 7, 2016)

Well, it should be waning, because it makes no sense to drive at all, not even as a part-time job. At least with the surge, you could have a decent night when a big event in town. No longer.


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## Fozzie (Aug 11, 2018)

Alloverthemap said:


> It seems that Uber is cutting off its nose to spite its face by eliminating surges for the drivers. Passengers are left high and dry as the number of drivers wanes. Uber revenue takes a hit with all those eager riders unable to get a ride.
> 
> At least that's the confoundingly obvious take. But what if we went in another direction with this.
> 
> ...


How is eliminating surge hurting Uber?

* Lower surges means less money paid to drivers = more money for Uber.

* If Uber has fewer drivers, Uber will use that as an excuse to raise passenger surge multipliers due to "increased demand." (Raise passenger multiplier to 2x, and increase flat surge for drivers to $2)

* If Uber has more drivers, they cut driver pay to increase their profit margin. Ants are, and always will be disposable. (Customers will continue to pay surge and increase Uber profits)


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## Polomarko (Dec 20, 2016)

With last price cut Uber definitely brought this job to miserly. This was a turning point and I am not optimist for UBER future. Riders are looking for alternatives. Congestion at Airports and SF Downtown is horrible. Drivers heading to this location because that it is only way to make some money. In front of Bart stations and hotels Taxis taking care of business.In suburban areas ETA to pick up destination is at least 15 to 18 min.


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## Alloverthemap (Sep 3, 2017)

Fozzie said:


> How is eliminating surge hurting Uber?
> 
> * Lower surges means less money paid to drivers = more money for Uber.
> 
> ...


Valid points all. I had failed to realize that the surges were staying the same for passengers and that we weren't privy to that information. That definitely negates my hypothesis.


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## Abraxas79 (Feb 7, 2016)

Polomarko said:


> With last price cut Uber definitely brought this job to miserly. This was a turning point and I am not optimist for UBER future. Riders are looking for alternatives. Congestion at Airports and SF Downtown is horrible. Drivers heading to this location because that it is only way to make some money. In front of Bart stations and hotels Taxis taking care of business.In suburban areas ETA to pick up destination is at least 15 to 18 min.


I hope UBER and LYFT are shut down. They are trapped in a losing model. Both losing billions and no way to turn profitable. The only way to increase profitability is to keep stealing from the driver. They do not succeed in running the Taxis out of business and now they can never increase their rates. No one thinks autonomous cars are the answer. If these two companies cannot turn a profit paying the driver less then what rickshaw operator would command how are they going to be profitable when they have to pay the expenses of maintaining a fleet? The one that comes out on top, strangely enough, is Travis. He has his money and must be laughing.


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## raisedoncereal (Jun 5, 2019)

If you hate it so much, why not quit and take up much better opportunities rather than wish ill on them?

I for one am very grateful that I am given the opportunity to make a choice to work as many hours as I see fit when and where I choose. If I get sick of it and feel there are better opportunities, I'll go to it.

What I won't do, is constantly bite the hand that feeds me, no matter how cheap the food is. If you don't like it, don't eat. No one is forcing you...


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## Polomarko (Dec 20, 2016)

raisedoncereal said:


> If you hate it so much, why not quit and take up much better opportunities rather than wish ill on them?
> 
> I for one am very grateful that I am given the opportunity to make a choice to work as many hours as I see fit when and where I choose. If I get sick of it and feel there are better opportunities, I'll go to it.
> 
> What I won't do, is constantly bite the hand that feeds me, no matter how cheap the food is. If you don't like it, don't eat. No one is forcing you...


Toxic thinking. No american citizen should be exploited so bad that cannot make a living working 12 hour a day.
If somebody broke into your house you call police. Why, you are citizens of this country you pay taxes and it is government duties to protect you.
Drivers need protection from predatory actions of this two companies.


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## raisedoncereal (Jun 5, 2019)

You made choices earlier in life that resulted in you potentially not being able to make what you want to make. I'm not trying to talk down to you, I personally made some poor choices in life that let me to doing rideshare driving at this point in my life and being unhappy with the results of my actions, but fully realize that it is my own actions and my own doing that led me to where I am today. I also know what it takes to turn things around, and have done it many times over, not just a fluke or pure luck

As an adult, you should take responsibility for your actions and choices, and not always play victim and try to blame others for the results you have. I've seen and lived both sides of the fence and realize that oftentimes poor choices lead to poor results but you can't blame anybody but yourself for the life you have, at least not in America

If you don't feel that this applies to you, keep doing what you're doing oh, maybe somebody will take care of your problems for you in the future


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## Alloverthemap (Sep 3, 2017)

With all the benefits being a ridehail driver delivers, it is a bit much to expect to also make good money at it.


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## rkozy (Apr 5, 2019)

I'm not exactly sure what side of the argument I take on this "Shut Down U/L versus Find A Different Job" debate which creeps into many threads. Nobody is sticking a gun to my head and making me drive for Uber or Lyft. Yet, I can't help but think these rideshare companies are getting away with plain-sight labor violations because they are grossly exploiting every legal loophole in existence.

If regulation is the enemy of a free market, I'd suggest that the rideshare industry should simply go to a Craigslist format, where anybody can offer to give rides, and both parties (rider and driver) can negotiate every aspect of the transaction. Somebody needs to a create a peer-to-peer smartphone app where riders and drivers connect online to negotiate terms of a ride. Cut the U/L middle man out entirely. That would certainly raise driver earnings and give passengers more of a seat at the negotiating table.

The rideshare industry seems like one that may eventually crumble under the weight of its own greed. That would be bad for everyone involved, since taxi services had an unfair stranglehold for decades...and would revert to their position of power if the U/L model goes away permanently.


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## welikecamping (Nov 27, 2018)

"Toxic thinking. No American citizen should be exploited so bad that cannot make a living working 12 hour a day.
If somebody broke into your house you call police. Why, you are citizens of this country you pay taxes and it is government duties to protect you.
Drivers need protection from predatory actions of this two companies. "

(I fixed your capitalization issue)
||
I don't disagree with you, but I will say that not all drivers are doing this to make a living. There are a variety of reasons for driving, and I personally believe that this system will never die, because there will always be people willing to drive for pennies so long as there are people willing to pay for it. The best one can hope for, again IMHO, is a tiered system, where you can opt for a budget or luxury ride, or something in-between, and pay a comparable rate. Hell, I don't even know if that idea will work, because, you know, greed and stuff. I will say that I believe rideshare is a really good idea and I hope it can outlive the greed aspect and evolve into something workable for all.

In terms of making a career of this - I would suggest finding a different career, this is a dead-end street.


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## Alloverthemap (Sep 3, 2017)

rkozy said:


> I'm not exactly sure what side of the argument I take on this "Shut Down U/L versus Find A Different Job" debate which creeps into many threads. Nobody is sticking a gun to my head and making me drive for Uber or Lyft. Yet, I can't help but think these rideshare companies are getting away with plain-sight labor violations because they are grossly exploiting every legal loophole in existence.
> 
> If regulation is the enemy of a free market, I'd suggest that the rideshare industry should simply go to a Craigslist format, where anybody can offer to give rides, and both parties (rider and driver) can negotiate every aspect of the transaction. Somebody needs to a create a peer-to-peer smartphone app where riders and drivers connect online to negotiate terms of a ride. Cut the U/L middle man out entirely. That would certainly raise driver earnings and give passengers more of a seat at the negotiating table.
> 
> The rideshare industry seems like one that may eventually crumble under the weight of its own greed. That would be bad for everyone involved, since taxi services had an unfair stranglehold for decades...and would revert to their position of power if the U/L model goes away permanently.


It is hard to see how the model survives . . . but hasn't that been Uber's contention all along? "We'll start turning profits when we can start automating the service."

As for the CL idea, don't think it would gain traction. The old saw "never get in a car with a stranger" would come back into vogue soon enough.


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## nouberipo (Jul 24, 2018)

Alloverthemap said:


> It seems that Uber is cutting off its nose to spite its face by eliminating surges for the drivers. Passengers are left high and dry as the number of drivers wanes. Uber revenue takes a hit with all those eager riders unable to get a ride.
> 
> At least that's the confoundingly obvious take. But what if we went in another direction with this.
> 
> ...


First of all you wrote that they are "Cleaning up when then the rates surge". Lets be clear, surge is not cleaning up. Surge fares, if high enough, are considered fair pay for the time and personal resources drivers are using to car paxoles around. Non-surge fares are unethical, immoral, and unregulated (for now) and exploit all drivers who pick up passengers under this fare type. I actually rely on driving to play the stock market yet I am not willing to lose money in order to "make money". I am aghast that you mention drivers "exploiting" the situation. Are you kidding? Who is doing the exploitation here? Bottom line is that Uber currently tries to operate by keeping surges that are passed on to drivers at bay (yes there are surges, lots of them and high ones but Uber keeps the surge) thus with your thesis they need to get rid of the smart drivers who will only drive when they can make a profit and let the ignorant drivers who will drive 10 minutes to pick up a non-surge fare line the pockets of Uber and their investors. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEY HAVE DECREASED EARNINGS SO MUCH THAT IT IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE REGULATED> THEY ARE THE MONSTERS THAT HAVE CREATED THE PROBLEM. They have allowed riders to get used to cheap fares at the expense of the investors at first. Then the expense was moved to drivers where it currently rests. Unfortunately for them there is not much more room to rob the drivers outside of having them pay for the privilege of picking up the ghetto trash with three babies and no car seat smelling like marijuana who wants to go to the dollar store as the first stop while the driver waits 15 minutes and then calls the equally ghetto Manila-based call center that aren't employees of Uber but are contracted out thus could care less about telling you the truth. Bottom line, pay drivers for using their time and resources in a manner that is fair, legal, and ethical. That will not happen until the courts and regulators step in which is on the horizon.


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## rkozy (Apr 5, 2019)

Alloverthemap said:


> It is hard to see how the model survives . . . but hasn't that been Uber's contention all along? "We'll start turning profits when we can start automating the service."
> 
> As for the CL idea, don't think it would gain traction. The old saw "never get in a car with a stranger" would come back into vogue soon enough.


I don't think Uber will ever get to the part where automation happens. The self-driving technology might move quickly (someday) but the necessary infrastructure improvements and the willingness of the public to embrace RoboCars seems too distant. Certainly too far off in the future for a company like Uber, which is hemorrhaging cash trying to warp the time-space continuum.

Admittedly, my Craigslist-style rideshare app is a rough sketch. However, I believe the right kind of approach to this model with the appropriate amount of security and transparency would be a big hit with the public. Riders hate being over a barrel to Lyft and Uber pricing schemes, and drivers can't stand working for pennies. You just need a company that wants to sell the human approach to ridesharing, and not merely pushing technological opportunism for the sake of Wall Street's affections.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

Disappearing surge is like a disappearing topic at UP, one second topic is in front of you, then it just vanishes


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

raisedoncereal said:


> If you hate it so much, why not quit and take up much better opportunities rather than wish ill on them?
> 
> I for one am very grateful that I am given the opportunity to make a choice to work as many hours as I see fit when and where I choose. If I get sick of it and feel there are better opportunities, I'll go to it.
> 
> What I won't do, is constantly bite the hand that feeds me, no matter how cheap the food is. If you don't like it, don't eat. No one is forcing you...


after ab5 passes, will uber still pay you to post here ?


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## raisedoncereal (Jun 5, 2019)

I have no idea what that is, but don't hate me because you're just another weak person who can't survive in the harsh reality of the real world without the support of government assistance

"You can't handle the truth"

You will likely never excel at anything in life because you are content with mediocrity and just getting by. You would never understand doing work for the love of it, and being passionate about your work


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## Fuzzyelvis (Dec 7, 2014)

raisedoncereal said:


> You made choices earlier in life that resulted in you potentially not being able to make what you want to make. I'm not trying to talk down to you, I personally made some poor choices in life that let me to doing rideshare driving at this point in my life and being unhappy with the results of my actions, but fully realize that it is my own actions and my own doing that led me to where I am today. I also know what it takes to turn things around, and have done it many times over, not just a fluke or pure luck
> 
> As an adult, you should take responsibility for your actions and choices, and not always play victim and try to blame others for the results you have. I've seen and lived both sides of the fence and realize that oftentimes poor choices lead to poor results but you can't blame anybody but yourself for the life you have, at least not in America
> 
> If you don't feel that this applies to you, keep doing what you're doing oh, maybe somebody will take care of your problems for you in the future


Then you must be against minimum wage for employees. If you believe everyone with a shitty job deserves it due to "bad choices" then why have a minimum wage? Those folks should just "find another job."

Anyone working at any job should be able to make ends meet working full time no matter what the job.


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## Abraxas79 (Feb 7, 2016)

rkozy said:


> I don't think Uber will ever get to the part where automation happens. The self-driving technology might move quickly (someday) but the necessary infrastructure improvements and the willingness of the public to embrace RoboCars seems too distant. Certainly too far off in the future for a company like Uber, which is hemorrhaging cash trying to warp the time-space continuum.
> 
> Admittedly, my Craigslist-style rideshare app is a rough sketch. However, I believe the right kind of approach to this model with the appropriate amount of security and transparency would be a big hit with the public. Riders hate being over a barrel to Lyft and Uber pricing schemes, and drivers can't stand working for pennies. You just need a company that wants to sell the human approach to ridesharing, and not merely pushing technological opportunism for the sake of Wall Street's affections.


Well said!


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

touberornottouber said:


> The number of drivers isn't waning though, sadly. I hate saying it but many drivers are dumb and ignorant. I see it all the time here where a driver thinks their costs are only 15 cents per paid mile or that their dead (non-paid) miles simply don't count for expenses.


Actually the number of drivers is waning, Uber is deactivating drivers by the boatload. Uber has had tons of negative publicity and thousands of lawsuits and thousands more pending, it's costing them more then the public realizes.
Lyft is also downsizing its fleet for the same reason. I won't be surprised if lyft terminates express drive within a year, it costing them a fortune because most of those leasing fall behind with weekly payments and quit, lyft has to absorb the rental fees that are owed.


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## rkozy (Apr 5, 2019)

peteyvavs said:


> Actually the number of drivers is waning, Uber is deactivating drivers by the boatload.


Not in my market. They are still advertising for drivers on Indeed, and operating driver sign-up kiosks at two different malls where I live. I'm not even in that large of an area. Perhaps Uber might be shedding personnel in the over-saturated markets where robust taxi services and higher regulatory hurdles exist. But, that is only a handful of places.

Back in February and March, I could log on to Uber at 7:00 AM and have a ping within 20 seconds. The last several weeks, I've been waiting 15-20 minutes for pings. They either hired a bunch of drivers in June, or the college kids came home for the summer and are using Uber employment as a summer job.

There is definitely not a shortage of drivers. I've confirmed this with my passengers, who have stated their wait times for rides are noticeably shorter than just a couple months ago. I've also noticed my incoming pings are usually less than 3 miles away. In the early spring, I would routinely get pings of more than twice that distance.

Uber is not experiencing a driver shortage. They are just harvesting another crop of suckers who will eventually learn this is not a reliable source of income.


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

rkozy said:


> Not in my market. They are still advertising for drivers on Indeed, and operating driver sign-up kiosks at two different malls where I live. I'm not even in that large of an area. Perhaps Uber might be shedding personnel in the over-saturated markets where taxi services and higher regulatory hurdles exist. But, that is only a handful of places.
> 
> Back in February and March, I could log on to Uber at 7:00 AM and have a ping within 20 seconds. The last several weeks, I've been waiting 15-20 minutes for pings. They either hired a bunch of drivers in June, or the college kids came home for the summer and are using Uber employment as a summer job.
> 
> ...


Uber May be hiring in your market and others, but most of the new hire drive 10 hours per week or less for gas and beer money. Summer is slow, in the fall you'll notice that most hires now will be gone.


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## rkozy (Apr 5, 2019)

peteyvavs said:


> Summer is slow, in the fall you'll notice that most hires now will be gone.


That's what I'm banking on. The two colleges in my area (which provide an ample amount of foreign students with no wheels) are currently ghost towns. When they come back from visiting their families overseas, and the idled college kids here go back to school out-of-town, I suppose I'll be back to rejecting pings of 17 minutes/7.4 miles just like I was doing in March.


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

rkozy said:


> That's what I'm banking on. The two colleges in my area (which provide an ample amount of foreign students with no wheels) are currently ghost towns. When they come back from visiting their families overseas, and the idled college kids here go back to school out-of-town, I suppose I'll be back to rejecting pings of 17 minutes/7.4 miles just like I was doing in March.


Patience Grasshopper


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## RabbleRouser (Apr 30, 2019)

Alloverthemap said:


> It seems that Uber is cutting off its nose to spite its face by eliminating surges for the drivers. Passengers are left high and dry as the number of drivers wanes. Uber revenue takes a hit with all those eager riders unable to get a ride.
> 
> At least that's the confoundingly obvious take. But what if we went in another direction with this.
> 
> ...


Only one problem:
Driver numbers are not "Waning"
Driver's numbers are increasing.

Drivers are disposable with good reason. 

Plentiful Unlimited Supply.
Subsequently: Uber HQ can kick drivers in the Nutz with zero repercussions 
Other than the home office employees laughing their heads off.

QUOTE:_ "Over the past 10 years, the share of US adults who say their primary job is a taxi driver or chauffeur-a category that includes driving for ride-hail services like Uber and Lyft-_*has nearly tripled."* End Quote

Growth in the profession accelerated in 2014, the year Uber expanded from 66 to 266 cities around the world and transformed from a niche startup into a household name. As of last year,* the trend showed no sign of slowing down.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-american-taxi-drivers-tripled-152201870.html*


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

RabbleRouser said:


> Only one problem:
> Driver numbers are not Waning
> Drivers numbers are increasing.
> 
> ...


Word of mouth is now turning U/L into an undesirable option, I have offered some people who have late model cars a link to Uber to drive and they look at me like I'm a panhandler on the side of the highway and walk away shaking their heads.


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## RabbleRouser (Apr 30, 2019)

peteyvavs said:


> Word of mouth is now turning U/L into an undesirable option, I have offered some people who have late model cars a link to Uber to drive and they look at me like I'm a panhandler on the side of the highway and walk away shaking their heads.


Obviously your tiny nano sized study differs from Yahoo Finance's National Pole

Low Skill work has NEVER been a desirable "option"
However, for many it's their ONLY employment option.

ie. With all U know, with all your experience
U continue to chauffeur uber's clients and promote uber driving to others.
Driver numbers will continue to increase as companies make cuts and technology replaces

SMH:wink:


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

RabbleRouser said:


> Low Skill work has NEVER been a desirable "option"
> However, for many it's their ONLY employment option.
> 
> ie. With all U know, with all your experience
> ...


Uber has developed a bad reputation, most unskilled workers are going to Amazon and WM for better jobs.


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## RabbleRouser (Apr 30, 2019)

peteyvavs said:


> Uber has developed a bad reputation, most unskilled workers are going to Amazon and WM for better jobs.


and your source for this revelation? gut? your utter hatred of uber? objectivity is not your strong suit,
you're too emotional on the subject to be taken seriously


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