# "SDCs" will come a lot sooner than you think



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

They will NOT be "real" Self-driving cars, the way that they are discussed in this forum. They will be marketed and advertised as SDCs, because it sounds sexy and exciting. However, over (a long) time they will evolve into real SDCs.

Initially, the major challenges with SDCs are in the software, not the hardware. How to program an almost infinite variety of unexpected situations and terrain in numerous adverse conditions?

The solution is to severely limit the possible variations to a fixed number. This will be accomplished by introducing the initial rollout of SDCs into very limited physical areas in the most profitable markets. In the worst weather (example blizzards), SDCs will be taken off the roads, the same situations in which most Uber drivers refuse to travel today. Human drivers having courage and all-wheel drive cars will be unopposed .

The streets will be thoroughly mapped and pre-programed into an on-board database, so there will be "no surprises". There will be sufficient landmarks that even obscuring roadway markings by rain or snow will be an easy adjustment. Eventually, this may be replaced by a new (expensive) infrastructure of markers under the roadways detectable by SDC navigation systems.

The major issue will be street-construction and accidents stopping all traffic. There will need to be dynamic reprogramming of the on-board database to handle these issues. This will be accomplished by a central control facility. Once done, SDCs will be detoured to other routes, the same way that human drivers are today.

Over time (impossible to say how much) more and more locations will be mapped and added to the list of cities serviced by SDC, gradually replacing human drivers. Uber did it to taxis, which have not disappeared yet. SDC's will do it to both Taxis and human Uber drivers. Neither Taxis or human Uber drivers may ever disappear completely, but the number and demand will be steadily and inexorably reduced.

SDCs are only one small part of the automation revolution that is even now underway and gaining speed. It cannot be stopped, maybe delayed, but best addressed by planning ahead. One possibility is legislation mandating retraining of today's Uber drivers, who will be displaced by SDCs, with new skills for new jobs.


----------



## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

Lol right


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> Lol right


Seems there are 2 sides that may NEVER agree. Not only cannot they understand the other side, but for the most part they will not even try.

One side cannot accept the possibility of SDCs no matter what or just find being contrary fun. The uphold the long anti-technology, anti-change, historic tradition. In years past, they refused to believe in the how cars, trains, planes, and the computer would revolutionize transportation and society. Today it is SDCs, just one of the more visible elements of the larger automation trends.

On the other side, they believe in the "religion of technology", that has produced undreamed of miracles in the last 120 years. They cite "facts" and "studies", economics and trends, but do not attempt to understand the quazi-religious, primal fear, and abhorrence to the overwhelming change that their Cassandra-like predictions evoke, from which inevitably arises a plethora of conspiracy theories.

It is doubtful that either side will ever take the other seriously. The concepts are too alien and too repugnant to their own way of thinking, a virtual heresy and apostasy, an abomination that must be "cast out". Only time (years or decades or never) will tell who is right, but maybe not even then.


----------



## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

Anyone ever tell you that you have an unparalleled ability to use a large amount of words and say very little?


----------



## Gung-Ho (Jun 2, 2015)

This debate of when these things will be reality will only be settled when the first totally self driving car with no human at the controls of the vehicle transports a passenger on a public road. 

No point and guessing and speculating opinions. 

Lets make it fun. Start a lottery pick a month and year when this happens. It costs $10 to guess whoever gets it correct wins all the money. I'll offer to hold the $$$ perhaps people could paypal it to me. When the winner is determined I'll dispense the prize.

My guess March 2029.


----------



## Tippy711 (Apr 14, 2017)

Think the automated car is gonna divert to a drive through? Follow the pax's directions instead of the GPS? Wait more than 5 minutes here cancelling? Shmooze with the pax on those long drives? How will they handle Uber eats ? Will they become self aware and form a union?


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Tippy711 said:


> Think the automated car is gonna divert to a drive through? Follow the pax's directions instead of the GPS? Wait more than 5 minutes here cancelling? Shmooze with the pax on those long drives? How will they handle Uber eats ? Will they become self aware and form a union?


Thought that I already addressed those points, but I'll repeat and be more specific for you. The initial public release of SDCs will be VERY LIMITED. They will not stop at a drive through or anywhere else except the destination. They will not engage in free form conversation, only supply preprogramed replies in well-defined situations. They will not do UberEats unless both sender and recipient are willing to bring/get the food to/from the SDC.

Since we already know how that current GPS technology is unreliable, SDCs may respond to directions near the end of a trip, but they will not drive outside their highly restricted area of assignment. If any of the issues above are important then a human-driven car will be needed, at significantly higher cost than an SDC. Anything beyond an SDCs capabilities will be rejected or directed to a human in a remote control facility. Finally, if SDCs, or computers in general, ever become self-aware then humanity will have much bigger issues then an SDC union. See
https://uberpeople.net/threads/robots-take-over-the-world.146363/#post-2182383


heynow321 said:


> Anyone ever tell you that you have an unparalleled ability to use a large amount of words and say very little?


LOL. Thank you, even if it was not meant as a compliment. This is nothing. If you give me a chance then I can go on for hours.  However, I am brief, concise and reticent compared to some of the posters on this forum.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Insurers are already preparing for SDCs. They apparently agree with those who think SDCs may come sooner then later even though most acknowledge that "How long it takes is an enormous question."

*What will self-driving cars mean for insurers?*
BostonGlobe, Deirdre Fernandes, GLOBE STAFF, OCTOBER 08 2016

It's always been a simple proposition: If you want to drive, you need car insurance.

But what happens when people are no longer in the driver's seat?

That's a multibillion-dollar question facing regulators and the insurance industry as cities such as Pittsburgh, Singapore, and - later this year - Boston test driverless cars, signaling the arrival of the robocar and threatening to leave traditional auto insurance in the rear-view mirror.

Some of the nation's largest insurers, including Boston-based Liberty Mutual, and State Farm and Allstate Corp., both headquartered in Illinois, are spending millions of dollars to prepare for the brave new world where technology does the driving. If put into everyday use, driverless cars would probably reduce accidents, require an overhaul of insurance coverage, and threaten insurers' profits.

"This is an industry that will be disrupted," said Jerry Albright, a principal at KPMG LLP, a consulting company that is studying the insurance effects of driverless cars. "You've got a business model that is becoming obsolete."

For most property and casualty insurers, auto policies tend to make up a bulk of their business, with companies collecting nearly $200 billion in car insurance premiums from drivers in the United States last year.

But if consumers adopt autonomous cars at even a moderate pace by 2050, accidents are expected to fall by 80 percent because most crashes are tied to human mistakes. With fewer accidents, insurers will have to charge less for their coverage, and premiums could fall by more than 40 percent, dragging down company profits, according to recent estimates.

Already, some semiautonomous functions are making roads safer. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety found earlier this year that automatic braking technology reduced rear-end crashes by 40 percent and front collision warning systems eliminated 23 percent of rear-end accidents based on four years of data.

*Consumers also seem eager to test out these driverless cars. A recent survey by the Arlington-based Consumer Technology Association found 70 percent out of the 2,001 drivers questioned were ready to try out an autonomous car, and nearly as many wanted to replace their own ride with one that drives itself. Other recent surveys have found consumers are concerned and more conflicted about ceding control to computers.*

As driverless cars leap from the lab to city streets, the technology is raising fundamental issues about who pays and who is to blame when something goes wrong.

How insurance will be structured when technology takes control is unclear, said Chris Goetcheus, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Division of Insurance.

"There are more questions around this issue than there are answers right now," Goetcheus said.

And the questions are endless: Will insurance be sold to drivers or to carmakers and technology companies responsible for the hardware and software? Will there be some basic insurance requirements for the consumer, and what will it cover and how much will it cost? Will people still want to own their cars, or will they rely on fleets of shared vehicles that pick them up for work or a run to the drugstore, and will they need car insurance for those trips? What if the human grabs control of the autonomous car at some point and starts making driving decisions? How should insurance work in that situation? What about owners who don't maintain their cars with regular technology updates? And will all autonomous technology be equally safe, or will there be variations based on price, affecting potential insurance premiums?

"There's a lot of uncertainty on how quickly it will affect the auto insurance industry," said Hamid Mirza, senior manager of product strategy and solutions at Liberty Mutual. "But we definitely have our eyes on it."

Liberty Mutual is studying autonomous vehicles and driver behavior with MIT's Advanced Vehicle Technology Consortium and at its own lab in Hopkinton. The company has already started offering drivers discounts if cars have certain semiautonomous safety features that slow down the vehicle to avoid tailgating, trigger alarms if the driver swerves into another lane, and warn about potential blind spots.

Liberty Mutual officials said they are hoping to be involved in the Boston experiment on self-driving cars to get a better understanding of how they maneuver around traffic and any potential risks that would affect insurance pricing.

State Farm employees, along with carmakers, have embedded themselves at the University of Michigan's $10 million testing facility for self-driving cars, gathering data that could help the company tailor insurance policies for self-driving cars.

And Allstate has researchers looking into high-tech cars and exploring new sources of revenue should the rise of the robocar cause their profits to plummet.

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners, which makes recommendations on insurance issues that are often adopted at the state level, has recognized that the current insurance framework won't meet the needs of a driverless car world. The association is starting to consider how coverage might need to change, including whether consumers should only buy insurance to cover their own car and injuries - not for damages they might cause others, officials with the organization said.

Some shifts in the market are already happening. Volvo Car Group is launching a test of its fully autonomous vehicles in London next year and has already said it will pay for damages or injuries caused by its cars out of its own pocket.

In Pittsburgh, where the ride-for-hire service Uber has a fleet of self-driving Ford Fusions picking up customers, the company purchased a $5 million insurance policy in place for its test.

The coverage limits match what some Pennsylvania legislators have proposed in a bill aimed at creating a framework for self-driving car experiments, an Uber spokeswoman said.

But most states don't have laws in place yet.

Last month, Boston officials announced that the city's streets would be a testing ground for self-driving cars under a program by the World Economic Forum focused on the future of urban transportation.

The experiment is scheduled to launch at the end of the year, but Goetcheus said state insurance officials haven't been contacted yet about how liability issues will be handled. Under Massachusetts law, insurers don't have to write coverage for drivers they feel are too high-risk, which raises questions about who would insure these vehicles as they become increasingly common, Goetcheus said.

High-risk drivers are placed in a state insurance pool of last resort, which offers limited coverage options and can be more expensive. But it's unclear whether driverless cars would be pushed into that same high-risk pool.

Still, some insurance experts are skeptical that the new technology will arrive that soon or be that transformative.

People still enjoy pressing foot to pedal, gripping the steering wheel, and hitting the open road, said James Lynch, the chief actuary at the New York-based Insurance Information Institute, an industry trade group.

"Will people change their behavior?" Lynch asked. "The popular image is in a few years that we're going to be sitting in cars and they'll be transporting us wherever we need to go. . . . It feels like the early days of aviation. How long it takes is an enormous question."


----------



## Jagent (Jan 29, 2017)

Ok... sure... whatever you say.


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Maven said:


> Insurers are already preparing for SDCs. They apparently agree with those who think SDCs may come sooner then later even though most acknowledge that "How long it takes is an enormous question."
> 
> *What will self-driving cars mean for insurers?*
> BostonGlobe, Deirdre Fernandes, GLOBE STAFF, OCTOBER 08 2016
> ...


Guess what those inssures will be replaced by robot too. So if im in inssurance firm id start talking to their suppiours as babies. 1+1=2, 1+0=-1. 1+0 will be negitive cuz you will make no many as noone owns anything.

Alright people get those flash cards out and ahow them if we have no money then you will have no money. Keep possition and human control in but just improve on small things and you will make more money


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jermin8r89 said:


> Guess what those inssures will be replaced by robot too. So if im in inssurance firm id start talking to their suppiours as babies. 1+1=2, 1+0=-1. 1+0 will be negitive cuz you will make no many as noone owns anything.


Actually, SDCs are just a tiny part of the coming revolution in automation that is expected to put more people out of work than ever before  There is little planning now, when it would be most effective, on how society should handle such revolutionary upheaval.


Jermin8r89 said:


> Alright people get those flash cards out and ahow them if we have no money then you will have no money. Keep position and human control in but just improve on small things and you will make more money


People will still be in control, until and unless computers become self-aware. However, the gulf between the haves and have-nots will grow wider than ever before!  Society will stratify into 3 groups, the .1%, ultra-rich owners, the drastically reduced number of wage earners that still have (mostly part-time) jobs, and the vast amount of people (50%-80%) that cannot find work or have given up trying.


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Maven said:


> Actually, SDCs are just a tiny part of the coming revolution in automation that is expected to put more people out of work than ever before  There is little planning now, when it would be most effective, on how society should handle such revolutionary upheaval.
> 
> People will still be in control, until and unless computers become self-aware. However, the gulf between the haves and have-nots will grow wider than ever before!  Society will stratify into 3 groups, the .1%, ultra-rich owners, the drastically reduced number of wage earners that still have (mostly part-time) jobs, and the vast amount of people (50%-80%) that cannot find work or have given up trying.


All roads point to war. The stocks was high right befor ww1 and 2. Then massive market crash followed by war.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jermin8r89 said:


> All roads point to war. The stocks was high right befor ww1 and 2. Then massive market crash followed by war.


War is only 1 of 3 possible solutions that I see. War is the most traditional, used by both royalty and political leaders since the Middle Ages.

War kills off excess population.
War moves the people's focus from internal scandals, corruption, and abuses to external enemies.
War almost always increases the leader's (or King's) popularity.
War give the ruler additional authority to "eliminate" the ruler's political enemies and undesirables.
2nd is transporting the excess (jobless) population elsewhere.

Trailblaze opening new markets in virtually untouched, pollution-free, natural environments

Get away from overclouding, pollution, and constant government surveillance.

Exploit vast new resources in colonies on the moon, mars, and the asteroid belt. Eventually, expand to estra-solar planets. Sooner if we develop an FTL drive.

The technology is now under development and may be available by the end of the century.
It may prove easier, certainly closer, to colonize in undersea cities.
3rd is find jobs for the jobless

Believe it or not Global Warming may become society's savior.  Fighting the encroachments of rising sea levels will conservatively become a 100 trillion dollar worldwide opportunity, generating millions of new jobs, done better by humans, not robots or automation.
Building sea walls to protect coastal cities.
Building new inland cities, for the displaced coastal population

Building new undersea cities, when we run out of available land
see #2, colonizing near-Earth objects.

Opening up new markets, undersea or in space will create even more jobs at home.
The outlook for the future is looking brighter, but will require bold, innovative, revolutionary thinking and planning.


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Maven said:


> War almost always increases the leader's (or King's) popularity.
> 
> War give the ruler additional authority to "eliminate" the ruler's political enemies and undesirables


Increased popularity? people are pretty much seeing right threw the government. Trump has pretty much screwed alot of things up. Some of hilary voters are with him but alot of trump voters are going against him as they see right threw hes still same establishment.

Also eliminate other establishment. Well america and europe are for islam but you know what dont get covered is every establishment pretty much watching christianity be genocide by EVERYONE! The name of "god" is being elimated in many places. There was just a killing of 100 Christians in egypt but mainstream media dont want to talk about it. There is a good vs evil fight going on right now thats qbout to get to its climax soon.



Maven said:


> 2nd is transporting the excess (jobless) population elsewhere


This ones good. We as humans have always migrated. Once less humans are needed here you might here other places starting to become develeped. As a matter of fact if you a construction worker, trucker, farmer maybe your next best place could be hati? They need alot of fixing and its very cheap there. Look back at some places like china not too long ago wasnt doing good till america shipping everything over to china now they a world power maybe even more the US



Maven said:


> 3rd is find jobs for the jobless


That wont happen if AI takes over and everything to expenseive


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Jermin8r89 said:


> Increased popularity? people are pretty much seeing right threw the government. Trump has pretty much screwed alot of things up. Some of hilary voters are with him but alot of trump voters are going against him as they see right threw hes still same establishment.


One of your better posts, congrats.  (Seriously, not being sarcastic. Don't worry, it won't last.)

I happen to mostly AGREE with this statement.  Trump is continuing America's existing wars. Trump hasn't actually started a new war .. yet. Not even a trade war. However, he does appear to be moving in that direction especially with N Korea.


Jermin8r89 said:


> Also eliminate other establishment. Well america and europe are for islam but you know what dont get covered is every establishment pretty much watching christianity be genocide by EVERYONE! The name of "god" is being elimated in many places. There was just a killing of 100 Christians in egypt but mainstream media dont want to talk about it. There is a good vs evil fight going on right now thats qbout to get to its climax soon.


The problems that you cite seem to be getting worse not better.  At least Obama was trying to keep a "lid" on escalation. Obama (and most US military leaders) recognized that to win, America needs (1.6 billion and growing fast) moderate Muslins on our side, not working against us. Not only is Trump alienating Muslims (and everyone else), but he can't seem to use the military fast enough, although he has no clear policy requiring military force.


Jermin8r89 said:


> This ones good. We as humans have always migrated. Once less humans are needed here you might here other places starting to become develeped. As a matter of fact if you a construction worker, trucker, farmer maybe your next best place could be hati? They need alot of fixing and its very cheap there. Look back at some places like china not too long ago wasnt doing good till america shipping everything over to china now they a world power maybe even more the US.


Ah! So, you're a futurist or maybe a globalist? How soon can we submit your name to the Peace Core for volunteer work in Haiti? 


Jermin8r89 said:


> That wont happen if AI takes over and everything to expenseive


AI and automation will replace human workers because they are cheaper to use, not more expensive. Prices will come down and profits will go up.


----------



## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Gung-Ho said:


> This debate of when these things will be reality will only be settled when the first totally self driving car with no human at the controls of the vehicle transports a passenger on a public road.


That happened over a year ago and has continued ever since. But you knew that because it's been pointed out to you many times.



Gung-Ho said:


> Lets make it fun. Start a lottery pick a month and year when this happens. It costs $10 to guess whoever gets it correct wins all the money. I'll offer to hold the $$$ perhaps people could paypal it to me. When the winner is determined I'll dispense the prize.


I'm in. I'm picking May of 2016.



Gung-Ho said:


> My guess March 2029.


You're off by 13 years. Sorry, you're out.



Tippy711 said:


> Think the automated car is gonna divert to a drive through?


Yes.



Tippy711 said:


> Follow the pax's directions instead of the GPS?


Yes.



Tippy711 said:


> Wait more than 5 minutes here cancelling?


Yes.



Tippy711 said:


> Shmooze with the pax on those long drives?


Yes.



Tippy711 said:


> How will they handle Uber eats ?


Easily. It's already happening.



Tippy711 said:


> Will they become self aware and form a union?


No. Which is one of many reasons why we should want them.


----------



## ChortlingCrison (Mar 30, 2016)

My guess is in the year 3030.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

ChortlingCrison said:


> My guess is in the year 3030.


Which part? After all, consider ...

_In the year 2525, if man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find

In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms hangin' limp at your sides
Your legs got nothin' to do
Some machine's doin' that for you

In the year 6565
You won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube

In the year 7510
If God's a coming, He oughta make it by then
Maybe He'll look around Himself and say
Guess it's time for the judgment day

In the year 8510
God is gonna shake His mighty head
He'll either say I'm pleased where man has been
Or tear it down, and start again

In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive
He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing

Now it's been ten thousand years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through
But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight
So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday_​


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Maven said:


> Which part? After all, consider ...
> 
> _In the year 2525, if man is still alive
> If woman can survive, they may find
> ...


Your right god is comeing but alot alot sooner then you think. Gotham sheild is in action. As soon as they say north korea is doing a missle launch this week! Also all 100 members are going to white house today which also NEVER happens! Way way too many conquinsis happening at sametime. Also that video from last august on new jersey turnpike where the radio ztation was saying "trump april 26th" over and over again. Something is happening this week idk what but keep a watch out. Maven you do live in bad area as conn. Has had some events like sand hook. Everyone just be on watch


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Maven said:


> One of your better posts, congrats.  (Seriously, not being sarcastic. Don't worry, it won't last.)


If i have time i can give a good post. Most of the time i do my posts on break or when im ready to sleep.



Maven said:


> The problems that you cite seem to be getting worse not better.  At least Obama was trying to keep a "lid" on escalation. Obama (and most US military leaders) recognized that to win, America needs (1.6 billion and growing fast) moderate Muslins on our side, not working against us. Not only is Trump alienating Muslims (and everyone else), but he can't seem to use the military fast enough, although he has no clear policy requiring military force.


From what i see bush, Obama or trump they all seem about the same. Ive noticed from clintin its been rotateing. Clintin didnt do too much at all except sex scandals and TTP. Bush was radical going to war in middle east starting the long "war on terror". Obama helped in destabilization in america with "home grown terror". He saw himself as more of a celebrity more then a "leader". Now with trump we back to bush more destabilization of countries.



Maven said:


> Ah! So, you're a futurist or maybe a globalist? How soon can we submit your name to the Peace Core for volunteer work in Haiti?


Im a futureist or just a guy who wants to live away from a system thats clearly against freedom and the avarge man. Hey atleast with haiti you aint recorded everywhere like in america so put me down to do humantarian work.. I can survive in harsh environment. After all i used to be an uber driver haha



Maven said:


> AI and automation will replace human workers because they are cheaper to use, not more expensive. Prices will come down and profits will go up.


Yea ok. I wish. Uber is prime example. When it first started lots of incentives so it was cheaper and when you drove you made more. Now (besides pool) you pay more and earn less.


----------



## DRider85 (Nov 19, 2016)

But how can they come out with SDC if they can't even fix a GPS?


----------



## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

DRider85 said:


> But how can they come out with SDC if they can't even fix a GPS?


SDCs don't need GPS. We've covered this.

Also, GPS is way more accurate than what you think. It's limited on purpose.


----------



## DRider85 (Nov 19, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> SDCs don't need GPS. We've covered this.
> 
> Also, GPS is way more accurate than what you think. It's limited on purpose.


I don't care. Show me all the sdc taking over and I'll believe it.


----------



## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

DRider85 said:


> I don't care.


We know.



DRider85 said:


> Show me all the sdc taking over and I'll believe it


It wouldn't matter. They've been in service for over a year worldwide and several months in the US and you blind yourself to it. They are coming, en masse, prepare yourself.


----------



## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> It wouldn't matter. They've been in service for over a year worldwide and several months in the US and you blind yourself to it. They are coming, en masse, prepare yourself


Your military has had them first just like drones. I cant wait till they militarize these things and shoot us down. Conn. Lawenforcements are already militarizeing their drones


----------



## DRider85 (Nov 19, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> We know.
> 
> It wouldn't matter. They've been in service for over a year worldwide and several months in the US and you blind yourself to it. They are coming, en masse, prepare yourself.


You don't sound too sure the way you talk.


----------



## empresstabitha (Aug 25, 2016)

You're forgetting about the unpredictability of human drivers, pedestrians, and bikers. Mapping something won't work in that case.



> ?
> 
> AI and automation will replace human workers because they are cheaper to use, not more expensive. Prices will come down and profits will go up.


And what happens when no one can afford it. Yes automation means more profit but you can't profit without people who can buy.


----------



## DRider85 (Nov 19, 2016)

empresstabitha said:


> You're forgetting about the unpredictability of human drivers, pedestrians, and bikers. Mapping something won't work in that case.
> 
> And what happens when no one can afford it. Yes automation means more profit but you can't profit without people who can buy.


And I'm at the point where I just say I'll believe it when I see it. Some will keep on insisting that they're coming fast, they coming fast. And I just have to keep replying "I'll believe it when I see it then."


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

DRider85 said:


> And I'm at the point where I just say I'll believe it when I see it. Some will keep on insisting that they're coming fast, they coming fast. And I just have to keep replying "I'll believe it when I see it then."


How many acres of prime California real estate can I sell you? You can tell all your friends how brave you are. How all those geologists and scientists are frauds. You'll believe it when you see it. Oh, did I forget to mention, it's right on top of the spot on the San Andres fault predicted to be the epicenter of the next "Big One".


----------



## DRider85 (Nov 19, 2016)

Maven said:


> How many acres of prime California real estate can I sell you? You can tell all your friends how brave you are. How all those geologists and scientists are frauds. You'll believe it when you see it. Oh, did I forget to mention, it's right on top of the spot on the San Andres fault predicted to be the epicenter of the next "Big One".


And like I said I'll believe it when I see it. Seems like it's hard for some of you to accept. It's like you don't really believe in what you're preaching.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

DRider85 said:


> And like I said I'll believe it when I see it. Seems like it's hard for some of you to accept. It's like you don't really believe in what you're preaching.


Sorry if I overstated.  You have every right to your belief. There is nothing wrong with saying, "I'll believe it when I see it." I believe that all of the problems that have been brought up have technical solutions that only require enough money to implement. The more money, the faster the solution will appear. Solving SDCs is a lot easier than the "War on Cancer" or the "Drug War". And there is more than enough money behind the push for SDCs. It may not be Uber, or any one of their current competitors, but "SDCs will come a lot sooner than you think".


----------



## DRider85 (Nov 19, 2016)

Maven said:


> Sorry if I overstated.  You have every right to your belief. There is nothing wrong with saying, "I'll believe it when I see it." I believe that all of the problems that have been brought up have technical solutions that only require enough money to implement. The more money, the faster the solution will appear. Solving SDCs is a lot easier than the "War on Cancer" or the "Drug War". And there is more than enough money behind the push for SDCs. It may not be Uber, or any one of their current competitors, but "SDCs will come a lot sooner than you think".


Or later than I think


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

DRider85 said:


> Or later than I think


Maybe later in the USA than elsewhere in the world ... like China

*China's Kai-fu Lee on Why the U.S. Could Fall Behind in AI*

the information, By Shai Oster May. 02, 2017

One of the best-known Chinese tech investors, Kai-fu Lee, predicts that AI-driven advances like self-driving cars will be widely deployed in China before the U.S., thanks to more welcoming government regulators and greater social acceptance. And because machines learn by getting exposure to more and more examples, if they're used first in China, they'll get better there, too, he says.

"In autonomous vehicles China still trails by at least two to three years," Mr. Lee said in an interview with The Information. "But I would project that leadership may very well go away in the next five years. Because I think the Americans, as well as the American government, will be more caught up in the legal and moral ramifications of these vehicles. So the question is which government will allow autonomous vehicles on the road first."


----------



## roadman (Nov 14, 2016)

Maven said:


> They will NOT be "real" Self-driving cars, the way that they are discussed in this forum. They will be marketed and advertised as SDCs, because it sounds sexy and exciting. However, over (a long) time they will evolve into real SDCs.
> 
> Initially, the major challenges with SDCs are in the software, not the hardware. How to program an almost infinite variety of unexpected situations and terrain in numerous adverse conditions?
> 
> ...


Has uber factored in people like me who plan to steal/torch their sdcs. Their insurances premiums will go up.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

roadman said:


> Has uber factored in people like me who plan to steal/torch their sdcs. Their insurances premiums will go up.


Yes, "uber has factored in people like you who plan to steal/torch their sdcs". Everything inside and outside the SDC will be recorded, saved to the cloud, and used in your criminal prosecution.  Uber's insurances premiums will NOT go up, because they will likely self-insure, a common business practice today.  Hmmm, unless ... Captain Uber flies down from the sky above and burns you.


----------



## aJoe (May 17, 2017)

Can't wait for the first SDC to drive off of a cliff hopefully with Travis inside.

Hopefully Anonymous will hack Uber and send all SDC to Travis house.


----------



## roadman (Nov 14, 2016)

Maven said:


> Yes, "uber has factored in people like you who plan to steal/torch their sdcs". Everything inside and outside the SDC will be recorded, saved to the cloud, and used in your criminal prosecution.  Uber's insurances premiums will NOT go up, because they will likely self-insure, a common business practice today.  Hmmm, unless ... Captain Uber flies down from the sky above and burns you.


they can go ahead and record me on camera all they want to. ever hear of a ski mask? all they will be left with is the last gps location where sdc #143101 stopped transmitting. Do you think the police are even going to give a crap about some missing Uber sdc? The thing could have driven off a cliff somewhere but they are going to put 4 detectives on it working in shifts to go chase it down right?


----------



## aJoe (May 17, 2017)

roadman said:


> they can go ahead and record me on camera all they want to. ever hear of a ski mask? all they will be left with is the last gps location where sdc #143101 stopped transmitting. Do you think the police are even going to give a crap about some missing Uber sdc? The thing could have driven off a cliff somewhere but they are going to put 4 detectives on it working in shifts to go chase it down right?


Here is a hint SDC will have rubber tires. You know what to do.  You can also call it to a neighbor's house if you have a scope.


----------



## roadman (Nov 14, 2016)

aJoe said:


> Here is a hint SDC will have rubber tires. You know what to do.  You can also call it to a neighbor's house if you have a scope.


The SDC will apply the brakes if I walk in front of it.


----------



## 123dragon (Sep 14, 2016)

roadman said:


> The SDC will apply the brakes if I walk in front of it.


You are in the DC area why not stop the autonomous delivery bots? 
http://www.npr.org/sections/alltech.../hungry-call-your-neighborhood-delivery-robot

Be careful where you attack these drones since you might be on camera...
https://octo.dc.gov/page/pa2040-project


> OCTO's goal within this beta block is to leverage the street lighting infrastructure closely working with the Department of Transportation (DDOT) to deploy an innovative environmental sensor and *video-based lighting solution*.


Not every area is going to be like this but cities where first adoption are will be more difficult to commit a crime on a drone.


----------



## Spotscat (May 8, 2017)

Self-driving cars and trucks will eventually become reality - but I'd guesstimate it's a good 50 years down the road (no pun intended  )

Consider all the variables involved in driving an automobile - traffic, weather, construction and more. Before a truly autonomous system is rolled out for automobile traffic, common sense would dictate that it be perfected on a system that has a lot less variables to contend with - the railroad and/or subway systems being the most obvious.

A train has fewer variables to deal with than a automobile, and would be the ideal place to test and perfect automated or remote control. A railroad is essentially a closed loop, limited access system, consequently the software should be simpler to develop.

Commercial airplanes, ships, and railroads have had a lot of the human functions replaced by computers, but they are still years away from relenquishing 100% human control to a computer.

SDC's will eventually become reality, but I don't think I'll see it in my lifetime (I'm 61).


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Spotscat said:


> Self-driving cars and trucks will eventually become reality - but I'd guesstimate it's a good 50 years down the road (no pun intended  )
> 
> Consider all the variables involved in driving an automobile - traffic, weather, construction and more. Before a truly autonomous system is rolled out for automobile traffic, common sense would dictate that it be perfected on a system that has a lot less variables to contend with - the railroad and/or subway systems being the most obvious.
> 
> ...


It may be 50 years, or more, before full level-5 autonomous vehicles, like you envision. However, limited release of level-4 autonomous vehicles in well-defined, restricted environments, that happen to be the most profitable will come much sooner. Already on the road are autonomous vehicles in various stages of alpha-test. So, eat your veggies, exercise regularly, don't smoke or drink, and you may yet live to see it in your lifetime.


----------



## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Spotscat said:


> Self-driving cars and trucks will eventually become reality - but I'd guesstimate it's a good 50 years down the road (no pun intended  )


Entering the market? They already have. They are already in service on live roads.

In numbers? 2-3 years.



Spotscat said:


> Consider all the variables involved in driving an automobile - traffic, weather, construction and more. Before a truly autonomous system is rolled out for automobile traffic, common sense would dictate that it be perfected on a system that has a lot less variables to contend with - the railroad and/or subway systems being the most obvious.


The generations of engineers you are betting against started considering these 100 years ago.

SDCs will not be perfect nor need they be.



Spotscat said:


> A train has fewer variables to deal with than a automobile, and would be the ideal place to test and perfect automated or remote control. A railroad is essentially a closed loop, limited access system, consequently the software should be simpler to develop.


SDCs will not be perfect nor need they be. There is no profit in your suggestions. The SDC TNC market is a 14 trillion dollar market.



Spotscat said:


> Commercial airplanes, ships, and railroads have had a lot of the human functions replaced by computers, but they are still years away from relenquishing 100% human control to a computer.


There is no profit. There is no motivation. Now counter that with almost every major tech and auto company in the world racing towards SDCs.

The pilots on the most recent planes fly 6 minutes or less, because of regulations, not because they are needed.



Spotscat said:


> SDC's will eventually become reality, but I don't think I'll see it in my lifetime (I'm 61).


I'm hoping you aren't saying you'll be gone by 63 because you'll see them then or before.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

*Self-Driving Cars Coming to 4 cities in Connecticut*
*https://uberpeople.net/threads/self-driving-cars-coming-to-connecticut.168589/*
Bridgeport, Hartford, New Haven, Stamford
Bill just passed in State Senate.


----------



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

SDC are not road ready, not even as a personal vehicle to go from work and back daily. There is no way they will be ready any time soon to not have an operator in them for quite a while. There are so many intricacies of finding a pax and getting thru a guardhouse and gate that a SDC can't do.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Lee239 said:


> SDC are not road ready, not even as a personal vehicle to go from work and back daily. There is no way they will be ready any time soon to not have an operator in them for quite a while. There are so many intricacies of finding a pax and getting thru a guardhouse and gate that a SDC can't do.


Apparently, those behind SDCs have convinced (paid off) enough state legislators that you are wrong. What makes you think that "getting thru a guardhouse" is required or that a simple workaround will not be employed? Will keep you posted from CT.


----------



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Maven said:


> Apparently, those behind SDCs have convinced (paid off) enough state legislators that you are wrong. What makes you think that "getting thru a guardhouse" is required or that a simple workaround will not be employed? Will keep you posted from CT.


When terrorist start using SDC then maybe they will realize they were a mistake.


----------



## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Lee239 said:


> When terrorist start using SDC then maybe they will realize they were a mistake.


Terrorists and other persons using SDCs to perform any illegal activities in commission of a crime will be in violation of Uber's Terms of Service and are at risk of having their accounts deactivated!  It's not so far from today's reality...


----------



## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

Maven said:


> Apparently, those behind SDCs have convinced (paid off) enough state legislators that you are wrong. What makes you think that "getting thru a guardhouse" is required or that a simple workaround will not be employed? Will keep you posted from CT.


Personally...

I suspect a LOT of issues won't be apparent UNTIL the driver is removed from the equation.

Once they get a car that can actually drive itself... then you will discover a LONG list of problems to fix before it can work as a taxi..

THEN, you have to train the user how to operate the system, meaning how to put in a request so the SDC can get to you, and park, so you can get in and identify yourself as the correct user,

Then you can put them out as robo taxis. For people who are smart/sober enough to operate them within the systems limitations.

IE, you can't call an SDC to a gated community with just a call box... People won't understand that... and we all know they are going to try anyway...

As well as calling cars to places where there is no parking, ect ect...

Making a car so you can walk up to it while it's in motion and getting in, that sounds like a terrible idea, but a lot of my uber/taxi pickups are like that, especially after concerts, sporting games ect.


----------

