# Brutal Month for Uber as Bears Brutalize Investors. Is it Over?



## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

For weeks Uber’s intraday stock price has hit consecutive lows: from mid $60's on 4/28/21 to $60.35, $58.06, $56.27, $50.63 and $45.72 to finally settling at last week's 8 month low of $43.17 (check links). From 4/28/21 through 5/13/21, Uber has had consecutive losses amounting to an almost* $22.4B loss in market valuation* (that's an almost 23% loss!). However, Friday’s close (5/14/21) stopped the sell-off as investors boosted purchases to close its stock price at $47.42, which was a 6.61% increase from Thursday. Was this the end of the bear run or are we likely to see lower lows?










For this we need our indicators, which we will start with Fibs. Looking at our 10-day, 30 minute chart, we can see our retracements being extended close to their limit at 161% from our original starting point of $59. If we look at our 8-month low of $43.17, which we hit on 5/12/21, and notice that we had similar $43 lows the prior day after-hours *in addition* to the following day in intraday trading, we can then establish a resistance price point that bears must overcome to further nosedive Uber’s stock: $43.58.










Will it finally happen next week? Well, it is a bear’s market. And considering that money-losing companies do far worse than companies with solid fundamentals in bear markets, we can safely assume that the $43.58 resistance price point will likely be tested next week despite Friday’s $47.42 close. Having said that, if bears break this $43.58 barrier, Uber will likely trade in the $43-$37 channel for a while before falling to the mid $30’s or going up a channel. Yes, folks, long term Uber investors will have lost gains and see prices reverted 2-3yrs back. Meanwhile, if you have bought within the last 6 months, you will be fvcked and will experience what Uber drivers experience when loading up their way-bills. Having said that, despite always expecting a price drop (I’ve seen these nose dives hundreds of times), I never expected Uber to perform this badly, so this mid $30’s scenario is likely a worst-case scenario. If longs do not get Uber’s stock price up to the $55-$60 trading channel, we will likely remain trading in the mid-40’s for the remainder of the month, barring game changers. After looking at my other indicators, I will be surprised if Uber closes above low 40's end of week, next week.










Finally, let us look at our MACD and Squeeze indicators. Notice how our Squeeze indicator displays solid blue bars after sky-blue bars, which indicates the end of our price momentum end-of Friday in our 10-day, 30 minute chart. It alongside the MACD seem to confirm Friday’s rally being close to an end. Well, two days have passed since Friday’s close, and Uber lacks game changing news. Hence, Monday will likely see a brief surge before another correction. I say likely due to a contradiction on my OBV indicator (not shown), which was lower on Friday due to less short seller activity (for weeks short sellers have run up my OBV indicator and lowered prices). Have they given up? Or are they reloading?

I do not know, but either way you’re fvcked. This bear market’s sending everyone to the poor house. With Uber’s upcoming pay cut, you may now consider selling a kidney.


This was not investing advice, people, just written for entertainment purposes.


For last week’s run, read my prediction from two weeks ago:
Another Profitable Week Shorting Uber! Stock Price...



For grand daddy thread, go here:
Possible Upcoming Money Making Opportunity: Shorting Uber!


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> For weeks Uber’s intraday trading has hit yearly lows: $60.35, $58.06, $56.27, $50.63, $45.72 and $43.17 (check links). From 4/28/21 through 5/13/21, Uber has had nothing but consecutive losses,* losing close to $22.4B in market valuation* (down almost 23% in less than two weeks!). However, Friday’s close (5/14/21) stopped the sell-off as investors boosted purchases to close at $47.42, which was a 6.61% increase from Thursday. Was this the end of the bear run or are we likely to see lower lows?
> 
> View attachment 596073
> 
> ...


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## radikia (Sep 15, 2018)

NO !


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## Mad_Jack_Flint (Nov 19, 2020)

Five years from now, YES!

Uber will stick around but sooner or later they will fold because the fact is people will not drive for them for pennies on the dollar and clients will go to another platform...


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## Jimmy44 (Jan 12, 2020)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> For weeks Uber’s intraday stock price has hit consecutive lows: from mid $60's on 4/28/21 to $60.35, $58.06, $56.27, $50.63 and $45.72 to finally settling at last week's 8 month low of $43.17 (check links). From 4/28/21 through 5/13/21, Uber has had consecutive losses amounting to an almost* $22.4B loss in market valuation* (that's an almost 23% loss!). However, Friday’s close (5/14/21) stopped the sell-off as investors boosted purchases to close its stock price at $47.42, which was a 6.61% increase from Thursday. Was this the end of the bear run or are we likely to see lower lows?
> 
> View attachment 596073
> 
> ...


How is Lyft doing during that same time frame ?
You also have to consider the Biden factor.
Growth stocks have been clobbered since November.
Check out Kathy Woods Ark investments prior to November and during the time frame you mentioned.


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## radikia (Sep 15, 2018)

Mad_Jack_Flint said:


> Five years from now, YES!


If they ever figure out how to turn a profit . Who are they going to screw to get there ? The drivers ? I don't think they have any room left to screw the drivers .


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Jimmy44 said:


> How is Lyft doing during that same time frame ?
> You also have to consider the Biden factor.
> Growth stocks have been clobbered since November.
> Check out Kathy Woods Ark investments prior t November and during the time frame you mentioned.


Biden will Suck the Life out of Business like a Socialist Vampire !*


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## Gone_in_60_seconds (Jan 21, 2018)

Jimmy44 said:


> How is Lyft doing during that same time frame ?
> You also have to consider the Biden factor.
> Growth stocks have been clobbered since November.
> Check out Kathy Woods Ark investments prior to November and during the time frame you mentioned.


Lyft is an even more overpriced stock


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

Jimmy44 said:


> How is Lyft doing during that same time frame ?
> ..


At today's $49.28 open, compared to the beginning of the year's close of $49.66, Lyft is trading flat. On the same time period, *Uber is down by 13%*.




Jimmy44 said:


> ...
> You also have to consider the Biden factor...


I have discussed the Biden factor ad nauseam, just read my other posts. However, something I haven't touched on before will be Uber's tax burden under the Biden administration, which will increase substantially year end. Regardless of what other posters would have you believe, tax avoidance does not equal tax evasion (as shown on Uber's 2020 10-K). Despite exploiting loop holes, Uber still pays taxes (although not as much as it should).



Jimmy44 said:


> ...
> Growth stocks have been clobbered since November.
> Check out Kathy Woods Ark investments prior to November and during the time frame you mentioned.


I think Cathy's ARKK is an awesome ETF, one that continues to be under appreciated by Wall Street. Having said that, I will side with Wall Street here because Uber does not trade in a vacuum. If Uber wants my investment dollars, why limit myself to under performers? Our bear market has shaved billions off Uber's valuation (read my OP), yet other companies trade higher. Some quick beginning-of-year comparisons: $222, $36, $140, $3,737 and $12,876 for Microsoft, Pfizer, VMware, the S&P500 and NASDAQ, which are up by 10%, 11%, 17%, 11% and 3.6% respectively. How is Cathy's ARKK from January's open of $127? ARKK's down by 20%. Yes, I'm cherry picking companies to drive home a point: If my objective is making money, why invest in under-performing assets with a questionable future? Uber is just not worth my investment money unless I'm shorting, which is another topic.


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## Jimmy44 (Jan 12, 2020)

radikia said:


> If they ever figure out how to turn a profit . Who are they going to screw to get there ? The drivers ? I don't think they have any room left to screw the drivers .


Drivers have lots of power. Run Lyft. Run Doordash.


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## Jimmy44 (Jan 12, 2020)

tohunt4me said:


> Biden will Suck the Life out of Business like a Socialist Vampire !*


He already has. I'm sure Trump is secretly laughing.


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## Jimmy44 (Jan 12, 2020)

Gone_in_60_seconds said:


> Lyft is an even more overpriced stock


But every growth stock that flourished under Trump is tanking under Biden. This is the return of Obama. I'm sure Donald is enjoying this.


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## Jimmy44 (Jan 12, 2020)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> At today's $49.28 open, compared to the beginning of the year's close of $49.66, Lyft is trading flat. On the same time period, *Uber is down by 13%*.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You make great points. 
I pretty much follow my threads and react to where they drift.
Your points are all well taken.
Kathy killed it with Tesla and Square and Shopify etc.
These securities have been slammed since November.
Cheery picking is the way to go.
Buy and hold is no longer in vogue.


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## radikia (Sep 15, 2018)

Jimmy44 said:


> Cheery picking is the way to go.
> Buy and hold is no longer in vogue.


Good luck playing Whack-a-mole . YOLO ! lmao


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## Nats121 (Jul 19, 2017)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> For weeks Uber’s intraday stock price has hit consecutive lows: from mid $60's on 4/28/21 to $60.35, $58.06, $56.27, $50.63 and $45.72 to finally settling at last week's 8 month low of $43.17 (check links). From 4/28/21 through 5/13/21, Uber has had consecutive losses amounting to an almost* $22.4B loss in market valuation* (that's an almost 23% loss!). However, Friday’s close (5/14/21) stopped the sell-off as investors boosted purchases to close its stock price at $47.42, which was a 6.61% increase from Thursday. Was this the end of the bear run or are we likely to see lower lows?
> 
> View attachment 596073
> 
> ...


Let Uber's stock and valuation crash thru the floor. They deserve it.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> For weeks Uber’s intraday stock price has hit consecutive lows: from mid $60's on 4/28/21 to $60.35, $58.06, $56.27, $50.63 and $45.72 to finally settling at last week's 8 month low of $43.17 (check links). From 4/28/21 through 5/13/21, Uber has had consecutive losses amounting to an almost* $22.4B loss in market valuation* (that's an almost 23% loss!). However, Friday’s close (5/14/21) stopped the sell-off as investors boosted purchases to close its stock price at $47.42, which was a 6.61% increase from Thursday. Was this the end of the bear run or are we likely to see lower lows?
> 
> View attachment 596073
> 
> ...


So, in other words, Uber's stock might go up or down.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

The Gift of Fish said:


> So, in other words, Uber's stock might go up or down.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

tohunt4me said:


> View attachment 596175
> View attachment 596176


Inflation is inevitable post-Covid. Too many people ready to resume life and start consuming again, while the means of production aren't able to react quickly enough and start producing quickly enough. UberLyft is a classic example, with the massive fares it's currently charging its pax.

Inflation will settle down once production ramps up again in a few months.


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

Jimmy44 said:


> Drivers have lots of power. Run Lyft. Run Doordash.


I always advice my fellow drivers to have multiple apps running and be the biggest wh0re... to only go after what pays the most! -lol



Nats121 said:


> Let Uber's stock and valuation crash thru the floor. They deserve it.


I agree, but this will not to happen any time soon. In fact, it's existing institutional buying that's keeping Uber from trading in the lower channels (throwing millions is a small price to keep their portfolios at predictable levels and keep investors happy). I keep track of institutional support levels and expected support to drop by a few percentage points, which has not happened. Currently, institutional investors own 73.56% of the float (vs. 81.20% for Lyft). Believe me, once institutional investors drop to 30%-40%, expect stock prices to trade in the 20s.



The Gift of Fish said:


> So, in other words, Uber's stock might go up or down.


or side ways? lol



The Gift of Fish said:


> Inflation is inevitable post-Covid. Too many people ready to resume life and start consuming again, while the means of production aren't able to react quickly enough and start producing quickly enough. UberLyft is a classic example, with the massive fares it's currently charging its pax.
> 
> Inflation will settle down once production ramps up again in a few months.


You're optimistic...think bigger.

Much of that printed money has gone into the stock market, which has inflated company valuations. Since last year, performance metrics like P/E ratios have become so elevated that trading firms have stopped reporting them for selected companies hoping that investors ignore them. I trade on the fundamentals due to my strong background in accounting, and I don't see this on companies trading on foreign exchanges. In fact, I haven't seen anything like this since I started trading in the early 2000s.

This ongoing correction is real. I was fortunate to close my tech positions before tech dropped to existing levels, but if you think Uber's 23% drop is substantial, I say triple that loss. The CPI will be the deathbed for many companies.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> You're optimistic...think bigger.
> 
> Much of that printed money has gone into the stock market, which has inflated company valuations. Since last year, performance metrics like P/E ratios have become so elevated that trading firms have stopped reporting them for selected companies hoping that investors ignore them. I trade on the fundamentals due to my strong background in accounting, and I don't see this on companies trading on foreign exchanges. In fact, I haven't seen anything like this since I started trading in the early 2000s.
> 
> This ongoing correction is real. I was fortunate to close my tech positions before tech dropped to existing levels, but if you think Uber's 23% drop is substantial, I say triple that loss. The CPI will be the deathbed for many companies.


Think even bigger.

You're focussing only on financial ratios. The economy is strong, and the strong demand which is pushing prices up is a good sign. Of course there will be supply problems after a global pandemic. As stated, things will stabilise in the near future.

I'm not concerned.


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

The Gift of Fish said:


> Think even bigger.
> 
> You're focussing only on financial ratios. The economy is strong, and the strong demand which is pushing prices up is a good sign. Of course there will be supply problems after a global pandemic. As stated, things will stabilise in the near future.
> 
> I'm not concerned.


So printing money is creating a temporary demand issue in production, which will be corrected once companies increase capacity?


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