# Another Profitable Week Shorting Uber! Stock Price Hitting 2 Month Low in Intraday Trading!



## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

While the SP-500 and Nasdaq are up .39% and .34%, respectively, Uber investors weren't able to defend last week's predicted resistance of $54.24 against sellers this week (see prior post). Sellers and short sellers manhandled down Uber's stock price down to a two month low of $50.63. Last time Uber saw below $51 in intraday trading was two months ago on 3/5/21 at $50.81! As I type this, Uber is down another 7% since Monday's close of $55.24. It's become a race to the bottom! 

Sorry for not including pictures of the RSI, but this week, we're seeing Uber investors ignore oversold prices as they keep selling. Damn, look at the MACD, it looks like spaghetti on fasteners.

So what's next, you ask? Well, had you YOLO'ed the day I started reporting, you wouldn't be asking what's next. You'd probably be doing two or three lines down in Tahiti -lol. Anyway, Uber insiders have yet to release 1st quarter earnings, so the stock is likely to see more volatility. How much lower can Uber go? That would depend on those 1st quarter losses. Remember, there's little hope for these money losing stankers. The less money they lose, the more the stock will get shorted thanks to the cult-like following, which is currently keeping prices artificially high.

I'll keep you posted on earnings, guys. Meanwhile, happy shorting!

This was not investment advice, just my take on this money losing company.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Well Done !


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Uber stock is WAY overpriced. I would buy at $5 a share.


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

I bought ATM 47calls expiring tomorrow for .71.......in typical fashion the stock promptly dropped another $1.50 before some late sympathy buying.


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

Diamondraider said:


> I bought ATM 47calls expiring tomorrow for .71.......in typical fashion the stock promptly dropped another $1.50 before some late sympathy buying.


These are now lottery tickets because I acting foolish and wanted more than the .61 I could have liquidated for

These things rarely work in my favor and aren’t a wise move. 

We will see how the morning goes.


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

Diamondraider said:


> These are now lottery tickets because I acting foolish and wanted more than the .61 I could have liquidated for
> 
> These things rarely work in my favor and aren’t a wise move.
> 
> We will see how the morning goes.


You're a brave man buying calls in this market. There's just no bottom for some stocks. Now puts, that's where the money is. I've gone back shorting a few favorites, and it's been a single-digit profit week for me, but damn all my longs are red. Surprisingly, my only long holding steady is GameStop. The damn stock has taken good hits, but always bounces back like a champion. There's no way I'd ever recommend any one buying into the thing, but if you bought early like me and have seen those highs, you've now done it and become an addict. There's just no other stock I've had that's gotten me those highs...lol!


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

goneubering said:


> Uber stock is WAY overpriced. I would buy at $5 a share.


We're getting there... At today's $45.72 low, we're seeing last year's November prices. Uber's dropping like an anchor.


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

What a brutal week.


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> You're a brave man buying calls in this market. There's just no bottom for some stocks. Now puts, that's where the money is. I've gone back shorting a few favorites, and it's been a single-digit profit week for me, but damn all my longs are red. Surprisingly, my only long holding steady is GameStop. The damn stock has taken good hits, but always bounces back like a champion. There's no way I'd ever recommend any one buying into the thing, but if you bought early like me and have seen those highs, you've now done it and become an addict. There's just no other stock I've had that's gotten me those highs...lol!


I screwed up the trade though. With a little luck I’ll salvage some capital this morning.


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> You're a brave man buying calls in this market. There's just no bottom for some stocks. Now puts, that's where the money is. I've gone back shorting a few favorites, and it's been a single-digit profit week for me, but damn all my longs are red. Surprisingly, my only long holding steady is GameStop. The damn stock has taken good hits, but always bounces back like a champion. There's no way I'd ever recommend any one buying into the thing, but if you bought early like me and have seen those highs, you've now done it and become an addict. There's just no other stock I've had that's gotten me those highs...lol!


Fingers crossed....looks like i might scalp a profit at the open if Uber can hold pre-market gains.


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

Diamondraider said:


> Fingers crossed....looks like i might scalp a profit at the open if Uber can hold pre-market gains.


Sold 10 Uber 48.50 to collect .17

Now have a 47/48.50 call spread on


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

Diamondraider said:


> Sold 10 Uber 48.50 to collect .17
> 
> Now have a 47/48.50 call spread on


And I’m out of the spread ..... profit .23.


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## Diamondraider (Mar 13, 2017)

Diamondraider said:


> And I’m out of the spread ..... profit .23.


Oh lord did I exit too early, FFS


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## kingcorey321 (May 20, 2018)

Nice trade . 
In the next 6 months ? under a year. Im looking for a 50 percent off on the market 
Its all set up for a major shift. Lot of borrowed money being invested . Inflation on everything . Corona virus issues with lack of supplies lumber even chicken . Earning reports coming in under estimates . This fake market keeps going up.
Not forever . Soon it will hit resistance . Then it will slam down hard. This market should be half or less right now .


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

Diamondraider said:


> These are now lottery tickets because I acting foolish and wanted more than the .61 I could have liquidated for
> 
> These things rarely work in my favor and aren’t a wise move.
> 
> We will see how the morning goes.


I'll take any gains this week over losses. You did good in my book. I just closed a few positions with minor gains. It's still too risky to hold unless you're going long term, which I would not recommend on margin trading..there's just too much red. Best bet is scalping before power hour. Who knows if bears are out on a break before returning to munch on more tech.




kingcorey321 said:


> Nice trade .
> In the next 6 months ? under a year. Im looking for a 50 percent off on the market
> Its all set up for a major shift. Lot of borrowed money being invested . Inflation on everything . Corona virus issues with lack of supplies lumber even chicken . Earning reports coming in under estimates . This fake market keeps going up.
> Not forever . Soon it will hit resistance . Then it will slam down hard. This market should be half or less right now .


6 months? I think we're currently going through the correction you mention with minor surges before it finally settles. I could be wrong, but I don't see a repeat of last year's March where the prices just dived. Some earnings are coming strong. Still, with inflation creep, what's the point of high earnings? Real estate, that's where you want to be if these markets scare you. Either that or boomer stocks or shorting. 

Not many outlets are reporting it, but we've been in a bear market for weeks now.


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## Slim Pete (Nov 21, 2014)

kingcorey321 said:


> ...
> In the next 6 months ? under a year. Im looking for a 50 percent off on the market
> .....This market should be half or less right now .


Absolute and utter BS.
With the amount of money printed, I'm SHOCKED the market is not MUCH higher. I know, according to "old fart" investors like Buffet, his favorite indicator shows the market is way overpriced, but let's look at it from a common sense perspective.
For the market to crash, there has to be SELLING. No selling, no crash.
Why would people sell? 
1) If interest rates are high and bonds pay out well, with comparable risk (then people would sell stocks and invest in bonds instead).
2) If interest rates are projected to drastically rise, thus reducing the present value of future profits of high growth stocks.
3) If markets rise and rise and rise DRASTICALLY, as in like 100% rise every 18-24 months, and then fear of a crash culminates into a self fulfilling prophecy.

Right now, none of that exists. I understand you mentioned about borrowed money and inflation, and yes, I am aware that the US Gov't (via the Fed) printed (electronically created via the QE route) MORE money out of thin air in the SIX WEEKS after the virus hit THAN in did in SIX YEARS following the 2008 housing crash.

BUT.

Here's the key word.
It's all a question of RELATIVITY. OK, we have all these problems to worry about, but then, in how much deeper sh1t are other comparable economies? They are in fact relatively worse than us. It's all about how our economy fares RELATIVE to others, and not in absolute terms.
Think about it this way - if I was short, only 5'4" and in a room full of Japanese men, I wouldn't feel embarassed, but if I was in a room full of basketball players, I'd immediately develop a complex. It's not your height in absolute terms but in relative terms. Same parallels apply to the economy.

So yeah, while you'll always read doom and gloom stories about the economy, and rates rising and inflating starting to surge, and all that, remember all these negatives are far more than offset by all the money printed, trillions and trillions of dollars created out of thin air, and this will have to find a parking spot somewhere, most likely in the equity markets.

As I've said before, I'm quite surprised the markets haven't risen more than they actually already have, taking all factors into account.


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

Slim Pete said:


> Absolute and utter BS.
> With the amount of money printed, I'm SHOCKED the market is not MUCH higher. I know, according to "old fart" investors like Buffet, his favorite indicator shows the market is way overpriced


But the market is indeed overpriced. Stocks are trading at +10yr highs. Since March 2020's correction, the Nasdaq, is over 110%. The S&P500 is higher. Pick a value stock (APPL, INTC, HD or other) and there's a good chance that it's trading at near-peak levels. A few months ago, Uber's stock price peaked at $60. Do you think a poor performer like Uber is worth $60?

The printed money you mention IS propping up the stock market. And I'm not just talking about meme stocks which "old farts" won't touch. Company valuations are artificially high and detached from fundamentals. Last time we saw these unreasonable valuations? It happened in the 90's during the "dot-com bubble" that led to a massive correction. And believe it or not, Warren Buffet was one of the investors who warned us then before the correction.




Slim Pete said:


> ..., but let's look at it from a common sense perspective.
> For the market to crash, there has to be SELLING. No selling, no crash.
> Why would people sell?
> 1) If interest rates are high and bonds pay out well, with comparable risk (then people would sell stocks and invest in bonds instead).


One thing leads to the other. Before bonds become attractive, their interest rates have to be high enough for investors to close their stock positions. Why do interest rates increase? The Fed increases them to ease inflation. According to their last figures, inflation DID increase more than expected. Today (Thursday, 6/10/21), incidentally, we will have new CPI numbers to provide us with better guidance. If the CPI numbers are higher than expected, there'll be a stock market sell off due to the expected increase in interest rates. The Fed will eventually have to address inflation by increasing rates. There hasn't been a sell off due to the Fed's interest in maintaining the status quo.



Slim Pete said:


> 2) If interest rates are projected to drastically rise, thus reducing the present value of future profits of high growth stocks.


Bingo. 

Also, inflation reduces the value of the US dollar. What's the point of having profitable companies when foreign competitors are trading in a more valuable currency? In fact, what's the point of investing in companies altogether when investors can secure a more attractive investment in precious metals or real estate?



Slim Pete said:


> 3) If markets rise and rise and rise DRASTICALLY, as in like 100% rise every 18-24 months, and then fear of a crash culminates into a self fulfilling prophecy.


Yes, but this has been happening for the past 5 yrs (the markets rising exponentially).




Slim Pete said:


> Right now, none of that exists. I understand you mentioned about borrowed money and inflation, and yes, I am aware that the US Gov't (via the Fed) printed (electronically created via the QE route) MORE money out of thin air in the SIX WEEKS after the virus hit THAN in did in SIX YEARS following the 2008 housing crash.
> 
> BUT.
> 
> ...


You're right in this point also. At every past market crash, it has been the US financial market that has gained the most because global investors have less confidence in foreign markets. The US market is the first to recover. However, this massive inflow of investment follows the massive crash itself and does not prevent it. Also, we've have come a long way since the last few crashes. The US has bigger competitors in Asia. What's stopping investors from investing in China? What's stopping investors from parking their money in foreign real estate?

Something you omit? The Fed's reverse repo, which now exceeds $500B. The Fed's reverse repo has peeked since 2008's market crash -another sign of things to come.


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## UberIsAllFubared (Feb 24, 2016)

I think you are going to have a lot of opportunities to short the shit out of this stock down the road. Just imagine how bad their next quarterly report is going to be with all the incentives they are offering, and how many rides pax are not getting. Then quarter 4 when they have promised a profit that is never going to come. This stock really should be trading sub $13 a share.


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

UberIsAllFubared said:


> I think you are going to have a lot of opportunities to short the shit out of this stock down the road. Just imagine how bad their next quarterly report is going to be with all the incentives they are offering, and how many rides pax are not getting. Then quarter 4 when they have promised a profit that is never going to come. This stock really should be trading sub $13 a share.


Insolvent companies aren't worth more than their book value, which puts Uber at $16/share if you exclude impairments.

Yes, because Uber currently trades at a premium, it will crash hard if it ever loses institutional support, which, surprisingly, went up by 7 basis points recently.

Prior to the meme stocks, I made money shorting Uber because its trading patterns are very discernible and cyclical. Institutions artificially inflate the stock price with their regular purchases. Unfortunately, retail investors still see Uber as a value play and will likely be the ones holding the heavy bags should institutions ever pull back.

In deed, it's retail that loses. Uber's massive decline on 4/29/21 was preempted by a cyclical correction on 4/20/21 that I find ironic. Those institutions that sold Uber prior to the massive decline made billions and have already replaced their original long positions at lower price points from the prior 52-week high. I'm not quite ready to call it manipulation because the pricing activity doesn't quiet match a Wyckoff distribution (to those few readers: this is big). Still, to those retail investors long on Uber, be very careful.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

UberIsAllFubared said:


> I think you are going to have a lot of opportunities to short the shit out of this stock down the road. Just imagine how bad their next quarterly report is going to be with all the incentives they are offering, and how many rides pax are not getting. Then quarter 4 when they have promised a profit that is never going to come. This stock really should be trading sub $13 a share.


I’ll buy Uber stock if it hits $5. That’s the right price in my opinion. But I don’t see that happening this year.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Taxi2Rideshare said:


> While the SP-500 and Nasdaq are up .39% and .34%, respectively, Uber investors weren't able to defend last week's predicted resistance of $54.24 against sellers this week (see prior post). Sellers and short sellers manhandled down Uber's stock price down to a two month low of $50.63. Last time Uber saw below $51 in intraday trading was two months ago on 3/5/21 at $50.81! As I type this, Uber is down another 7% since Monday's close of $55.24. It's become a race to the bottom!
> 
> Sorry for not including pictures of the RSI, but this week, we're seeing Uber investors ignore oversold prices as they keep selling. Damn, look at the MACD, it looks like spaghetti on fasteners.
> 
> ...


Uber closed at $50.51 today. Shorting Uber seems like a dangerous game.


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## Taxi2Rideshare (May 17, 2018)

goneubering said:


> Uber closed at $50.51 today. Shorting Uber seems like a dangerous game.


Investors don't solely rely much on a stock's closing price for trading purposes because of the high volatility that occurs in intraday trading. For instance, at any given day, Uber's stock price may fluctuate +-$1.5, which also establishes Uber's daily high and low. Rather than relying solely on a stock's closing price, investors draw trading channels using consecutive high and lows to better determine their short (or long) positions.

I recently drew two possible trading channels for Uber. Enjoy: Uber’s Short Volume Interest Peaks for month of June


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