# Musk says Tesla close to developing fully autonomous car



## goneubering

https://news.yahoo.com/musk-says-tesla-close-developing-fully-autonomous-car-115854000.html


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## Launchpad McQuack

Linked Article said:


> Tesla is racing with Waymo, Uber, and traditional automakers to bring autonomous vehicles to market.


I thought Uber dropped out of this. Didn't they end their self-driving car development?


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## mbd




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## goneubering

Launchpad McQuack said:


> I thought Uber dropped out of this. Didn't they end their self-driving car development?


They should!! But they haven't AFAIK.

They took something like $500 Million from Toyota a year or two ago so it would be super embarrassing to admit SDCs are all a mistake. Toyota probably regrets that investment now. There was also the idea floated that Uber valued their SDC division at something ridiculous like $7Billion!!!! What a joke.

Found it. Okay it was $7.25 Billion. LOL


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-softbank-group-selfdriving-idUSKCN1RV01P


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## Launchpad McQuack

goneubering said:


> They should!! But they haven't AFAIK.


I thought that I read somewhere recently that Uber had discontinued SDC development, but I searched and can't find any mention of it anywhere. Did I just make it up? I didn't think my mind was that far gone.


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## Trafficat

Tesla has been close to a fully autonomous car for a decade. I'll believe it when I see it.


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## Uber's Guber

Waymo, as well as 3 or 4 other companies, are way ahead of the curve. Companies like Tesla & Uber are still considered wildcards out of the 15 or so companies that are focused on the race to develop a fully autonomous vehicle. Even if most of these companies fail in their effort to bring a fully autonomous vehicle to market, you can bet that many (including Uber) will be in possession of valuable patents & trade secrets worth a lot of money.


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## Amos69

Uber's Guber said:


> Waymo, as well as 3 or 4 other companies, are way ahead of the curve. Companies like Tesla & Uber are still considered wildcards out of the 15 or so companies that are focused on the race to develop a fully autonomous vehicle. Even if most of these companies fail in their effort to bring a fully autonomous vehicle to market, you can bet that many (including Uber) will be in possession of valuable patents & trade secrets worth a lot of money.


Not for another decade. SDC5 is still at least ten years away. Elon is smart but his showman is showing


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## SHalester

he never deliverers on time, but that doesn't stop customers from reserving and plunking down deposits.


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## TheDevilisaParttimer

Amos69 said:


> Not for another decade. SDC5 is still at least ten years away. Elon is smart but his showman is showing


Exactly Tesla makes a killing selling the potential SDC functionality on its cars. Musk isn't ever going to say we're actually decades away.

He's gonna keep saying almost there until we arrive at fully autonomous.


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## Launchpad McQuack

Trafficat said:


> Tesla has been close to a fully autonomous car for a decade. I'll believe it when I see it.


If they were close to Level 5 then they would have Level 4 available now. As far as I know, they don't even have Level 3 available now. There is no way that I believe that they are close to Level 5 when they don't even have Level 3 available.

I think most people that read this sub forum are probably familiar with the levels of autonomous vehicles, but just in case anybody isn't, Level 3 autonomy means that the car is capable of safely driving itself in a specific geographical area and under specific conditions, but a human driver needs to be available to step in if the autonomous system detects that it is needed and alerts the human. The big step from Level 2 (what Tesla is selling now) to Level 3 is that the human driver is not required to be paying attention to what is going on prior to taking control. A Level 3 autonomous system can detect on its own that it is encountering a situation that it doesn't know how to handle and can alert the human driver that he needs to take control _with sufficient time that the human driver can assess the situation and understand what is going on before taking control_.

For example, a Level 3 autonomous vehicle would NOT do this...

https://uberpeople.net/threads/elon-musk-is-a-dumbass.400533/
A Level 3 autonomous vehicle would detect the turned over truck in the road ahead and come to a stop before hitting it. Then it might get confused because it can't figure out how to avoid traffic and safely get over into the far right lane to get around the turned over truck, so it would tell the human driver, "Hey, you need to drive for a while because I don't know how to handle this situation." The human driver would NOT be responsible for stopping the car and not hitting the truck because there isn't enough time for the human driver to assess the situation and safely take control of the vehicle if the human driver was not paying attention at all prior to that......and the human driver is allowed to not pay attention in a Level 3 autonomous vehicle. That is what makes it Level 3.


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## SleelWheels

Nobody in my lifetime is getting into a driverless car. I’m 52, meh maybe I’ll make it to 75.


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## sellkatsell44

Trafficat said:


> Tesla has been close to a fully autonomous car for a decade. I'll believe it when I see it.


They'll be in the s&p before that happens!


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## Launchpad McQuack

SleelWheels said:


> Nobody in my lifetime is getting into a driverless car.


Unless you're dead right now, that is simply not true. People are already getting into driverless cars right now.


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## losiglow

Sounds good. I'm still waiting. :whistling:

2016
https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardwarehttps://www.businessinsider.com/elo...a-drive-across-country-by-end-of-2017-2016-10
2017
https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-timeline-for-11-top-automakers/
2018
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanba...the-road-by-2019-elon-musk-says/#13be469b62ac
2019
https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...any-are-worried-about-what-that-will-unleash/


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## SleelWheels

Ok, so guess it's me, I'm not getting into a driverless car.

Look, I'm old school, I learned to drive on a stick shift Datsun as my first car, complete with imitation sheep skin seat covers. I've been able to stomach the evolution of cars until the 'screens' came out. Driverless cars? I'm sorry you lost me at back up camera.


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## goneubering

Launchpad McQuack said:


> I thought that I read somewhere recently that Uber had discontinued SDC development, but I searched and can't find any mention of it anywhere. Did I just make it up? I didn't think my mind was that far gone.


In the News forum I think there was a post regarding SDC layoffs as part of Uber's cost cutting. Could that be what you're thinking about?


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## bethswannns

Full autonomous will hit the road in 2100.. Sorry to say, it is just not possible. Elon Musk's Tesla autopilot is a lane follower type of car using cheap cameras. In countries where there are no lines on the road, it is impossible. Even in the states, some construction sites required massive pro-maneuvering.

Humans are not fast innovators or builders. Every concept and product takes many many decades to be implemented in the market from new hair loss products, next generation non-fuel spaceship to Vaccine etc... Imagine in the next few years we can build a nuclear powered space ship, then a plasma space ship in another 5 years, then antimatter space ship in another 5 years, then I will say humans are progressing in the right direction..

In the future when we have AI and ultra super quantum computers, they can join hands with human to make things happen faster.

Unfortunately we are stuck using rocket-fuel typed spaceship for the last 50 years. Imagine if we have a new spaceship design in every 5 years, we would be exploring alpha centauri or another galaxy by now..


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## Launchpad McQuack

SleelWheels said:


> Ok, so guess it's me, I'm not getting into a driverless car.
> 
> Look, I'm old school, I learned to drive on a stick shift Datsun as my first car, complete with imitation sheep skin seat covers. I've been able to stomach the evolution of cars until the 'screens' came out. Driverless cars? I'm sorry you lost me at back up camera.


Well, now you're talking personal preference which is an entirely different animal. I agree with you on that. I don't even like cruise control, and that has been mainstream technology for decades.



goneubering said:


> In the News forum I think there was a post regarding SDC layoffs as part of Uber's cost cutting. Could that be what you're thinking about?


Maybe I read about the layoffs and in my mind interpreted that to mean that they were abandoning SDC development? It's possible, I suppose. At least that would mean that I am not necessarily showing early signs of dementia.


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## 33101sundevil

Guy built a rocket 🚀 in his backyard
and rendezvous with the international space station.
His Tesla company is worth more than the Vatican 🇻🇦

At this point I’m going to give Mr Musk the benefit
of any doubts 👍


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## doyousensehumor

One of these things slammed into a police cruiser earlier today in southeast Arizona

Reportedly the Tesla was in autopilot mode
https://www.azfamily.com/news/tesla...cle_06487d26-c615-11ea-b0ca-ab09abc88227.html


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## 33101sundevil

doyousensehumor said:


> View attachment 486761
> 
> One of these things slammed into a police cruiser earlier today in southeast Arizona
> 
> Reportedly the Tesla was in autopilot mode
> https://www.azfamily.com/news/tesla...cle_06487d26-c615-11ea-b0ca-ab09abc88227.html


......and 24,321 other accidents today not involving a Tesla.
I'm convinced drivers are not using the auto pilot as the
Manufacturer intended


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## SleelWheels




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## Amos69

There is no path forward to reach level 5 SDC. It cannot be done with existing technology. Unless one of the big AI working on it has some type of breakthrough we will not see it normalized in the next decade.


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## NicFit

They’ve been saying it for years, it’s so they can keep getting people to waste (invest) their money on this fantasy. Self driving cars by 2030 is a barely possibility, 2040 is more likely


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## The Gift of Fish

bethswannns said:


> Imagine if we have a new spaceship design in every 5 years, we would be exploring alpha centauri or another galaxy by now..


You're forgetting the Theory of Special Relativity.

The closest galaxy is 25,000 light years away. So, regardless of the spaceship used, even if travelling at the speed of light, it would still take 25,000 years to get there. And travelling at the speed of light is not possible according to Special Relativity as it would require an infinite amount of energy to do so.


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## SHalester

The Gift of Fish said:


> And travelling at the speed of light is not possible according to Special Relativity


Well, Star Trek universe would totally disagree with that statement. Just saying.
&#128674;
A *warp drive* is a theoretical superluminal spacecraft propulsion system in many science fiction works, most notably *Star Trek* and much of Isaac Asimov's work. A spacecraft equipped with a *warp drive* may travel at speeds greater than that of light by many orders of magnitude.


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## everythingsuber

Elon Musk has a track record that suggests that he should be laughed at rather than be taken too seriously. Rocket science isn't what it used to be hire a few engineers it's done. North Korea a pretty good example. Tesla share price means nothing more than Robin Hood has made finding the greater fool a lot easier than it once was. It's a cult and they will get burnt at some point.


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## LetsBeSmart

Trafficat said:


> Tesla has been close to a fully autonomous car for a decade. I'll believe it when I see it.


The GPS and software the weak link at least 10 to 20 years away.


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## 33101sundevil

everythingsuber said:


> *Rocket science isn't what it used to be hire a few engineers it's done.*


Yet your Australian &#127462;&#127482; government can't get to space without Musk

https://theconversation.com/spacexs...ooming-space-industry-more-room-to-fly-139760


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## Launchpad McQuack

everythingsuber said:


> Rocket science isn't what it used to be hire a few engineers it's done.


I agree that it is not what it used to be, but it still is not as trivial as you are making it seem.


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## tohunt4me

goneubering said:


> https://news.yahoo.com/musk-says-tesla-close-developing-fully-autonomous-car-115854000.html


Mars !

Concentrate on MARS ELON !

I WANT TO SEE MAN LAND ON MARS !

I REFUSE TO BUY A NEW TOYOTA DUE TO ANNOYING LANE DEPARTURE WARNING SYSTEMS !

MY RIGHT TO DRIVE WHEREVER THE HELL I WANT WITHOUT A.I . GROUSING !

MARS ELON !


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## getawaycar

Its all fun and games until you get rear ended by a Tesla on autopilot causing significant injuries to your neck and spine, or worse.

These damn things should not be allowed on the road. They are a clear threat to public safety.


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## SpinalCabbage

Musk just says stuff regardless of the reality of his statements. 

For a true Self-driving Car we need real Artificial Intelligence. Current AI is really just a bunch of IF THEN ELSE statements which rely on processor speed rather than anything even remotely approaching actual Artificial Intelligence. Of course an actual self-learning AI would probably just pull over, park and turn off the engine and call UberTow to get it back to the garage safely the very first time it encountered rush hour traffic in any big city in America.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn

I need to say, rockets just need to be pointed the right way and guided, your mostly flying through the empty vastness of space, 

A self driving car has a much harder task, operating in close proximity to all you stupid Hoo-mannes on the road. What's really harder, going from the earth to the moon or getting across a mall parking lot without running anyone over?


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## sellkatsell44

I just don’t see it happening in this lifetime because pple are slow to adapt and trust.

But some sort of self driving is already here/possible.

Complete self driving? Nope.

Infrastructure.


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## goneubering

sellkatsell44 said:


> I just don't see it happening in this lifetime because pple are slow to adapt and trust.
> 
> But some sort of self driving is already here/possible.
> 
> Complete self driving? Nope.
> 
> Infrastructure.


I agree. I'm not buying Elon's hype although I do hope he makes it to Mars.


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## sellkatsell44

goneubering said:


> I agree. I'm not buying Elon's hype although I do hope he makes it to Mars.


The man just needs to hype pple up, but even he knows deep down it's a ways.

doesn't mean one shouldn't pursue of course, I think is his thinking.

I much rather people go for the crazy pipe dreams and fail then the stay safe.

Lots to think about.


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## _Tron_

Just remember that this man has made a career out of doing what others said was impossible.

Does that mean I believe him when he says there will be FSD by EOY? Ha! Of course not. They're two years late on the promise to have a car self-drive itself from sea to shining sea. Don't even talk about it anymore.

What I mean is he actually truly believes it when he says that. He has a very optimistic mind. If he didn't, the only EV we'd have to drive is the Nissan Leaf. At _best_.

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Launchpad McQuack said:


> Unless you're dead right now, that is simply not true. People are already getting into driverless cars right now.


Let's just pray that what happens in Arizona stays in Arizona.


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## goneubering

_Tron_ said:


> Just remember that this man has made a career out of doing what others said was impossible.
> 
> Does that mean I believe him when he says there will be FSD by EOY? Ha! Of course not. They're two years late on the promise to have a car self-drive itself from sea to shining sea. Don't even talk about it anymore.
> 
> What I mean is he actually truly believes it when he says that. He has a very optimistic mind. If he didn't, the only EV we'd have to drive is the Nissan Leaf. At _best_.
> 
> ---------------------
> 
> Let's just pray that what happens in Arizona stays in Arizona.


I'll give him credit for that. I thought he would fail while attempting to land his booster rockets on a platform in the ocean. I was wrong.


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## mbd

Sales of 50k$ vehicles have limited upside opportunities... I noticed that Decarbonization has been thrown into the mix by TSLA now. It's not TSLA the car , but Decarbonization business opportunities. Decarbonization company out of Canada does equivalent work of 40 million trees:smiles:but California does not want to do that &#128512; it's funded by Chevron&#128512; California wants $$$$$$ from the companies/ people.

TSLA stock inventory is controlled by the billionaires, so trying to short and make money will be tough. It might be down today , but it's up 40% in the last 30 days, about 75 billion :smiles:
If TSLA gives out 100 %dividends, you might get 1$ if you take out the regulatory credit= you give them 270 billion and get back 1$ last year .:smiles: Key for TSLA is to keep rolling out new news/inventions ...news is worth billions.
Dont look at the cash flow vs mkt cap.


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## _Tron_

It is interesting how the stock is being bid up... even though Musk has said (more than once) that Tesla is not trying to be hugely profitable.

I guess all the stock holders just buy into the Master Plan vision.


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## mbd

_Tron_ said:


> It is interesting how the stock is being bid up... even though Musk has said (more than once) that Tesla is not trying to be hugely profitable.
> 
> I guess all the stock holders just buy into the Master Plan vision.


It's the limited supply of the stock issue, bid and ask is over a dollar most of the time + the high stock price. Buy one share at 1450, then another at 1451, then another at 1452 on and on ...it went up 3 dollars on just 4200$, but mkt cap went up millions.
It's like selling the same house in a neighborhood, over and over again by few people with 1$ down payment &#128512; you can bring up the value of the house.&#128077;


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## goneubering

_Tron_ said:


> It is interesting how the stock is being bid up... even though Musk has said (more than once) that Tesla is not trying to be hugely profitable.
> 
> I guess all the stock holders just buy into the Master Plan vision.


It wasn't that long ago when Musk said the stock price was too high. I think that was somewhere around the $900 to $1000 range!!


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## goneubering

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...nt-since-musk-tweeted-stock-was-too-high.html

Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted a week ago that his company's shares were priced "too high." 
The stock closed 7.78% higher Friday compared to when he tweeted last week.
Shares are up 16.84% from the close of market on the day he tweeted.


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## Jackshat

goneubering said:


> https://news.yahoo.com/musk-says-tesla-close-developing-fully-autonomous-car-115854000.html


wait till automated cars drive you over a cliff, lmao! NEVER!


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## Launchpad McQuack

goneubering said:


> I thought he would fail while attempting to land his booster rockets on a platform in the ocean. I was wrong.


It's difficult to overstate just how impressive that is. It is an amazing feat. I still have a hard time believing that they actually did it.


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## LetsBeSmart

Launchpad McQuack said:


> It's difficult to overstate just how impressive that is. It is an amazing feat. I still have a hard time believing that they actually did it.


There won't be driverless cars for another 15 to 20 years, gps isn't good enough this is the weak link, now vehicles that go to the same location all day like buses, this might happen sooner.


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## Who is John Galt?

33101sundevil said:


> Yet your Australian &#127462;&#127482; government can't get to space without Musk
> 
> https://theconversation.com/spacexs...ooming-space-industry-more-room-to-fly-139760


Seems the Australian government might currently be in good company with the US &#127482;&#127480; government



> https://www.space.com/trump-hails-spacex-astronaut-launch-demo-2.html


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## Jackshat

Only a moron gets into a driverless car.


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