# surge clouds are not REAL.



## GILD

uber says a surge is caused by more passengers than drivers. NO, not true.
surge is created by uber seeing there is not enough drivers in a area, *regardless of demand at that time.*

I used the Pax app to find real time surges, drove to the exact locations of a 8.1 surge, according to uber there should of been huge demand there to allow for a 8.1 surge. It was a corn field 1 mile out of small town.
turned on driver app, not a ping in 30 min, so offline again, on uber pax app, moved into the small town, 7.1 there, turned driver back on, Not one ping for 15 min. there was small bar with 3 old men, no one looking for a ride. so I drove 5 miles to big town. 3.0 surge, turned driver app on, Pings one after the other.

the point is surge is not real, it a false representation of truth and allows uber to scalp the citys with surge charges when there is not one, and makes drivers think that the city is surging, if a driver drives towards a surge, they cant get to the center 8.0, they will get pings in the outskirts of the surge, thus driving surges of 1.5 instead of 5x. It seems obvious to me then the move is to find the hot spots and just service those areas. do not move to a surge, as it is what uber wants you to do, move from your city to the nearby city to bring in more drivers to that city, but as 10 more drivers arrive, the surge will disappear like magic. The driver app is 10 minutes or more behind the pax app. you see the cloud, but that cloud is 15 min old and surge is gone from that area.

picture a 3 towns in small area, uber knows it needs 75 drivers in that area on a friday night, using previous friday nights information, demand means nothing. this town has 50 drivers right now, toss up a 8.1 surge cloud, draw in 25 more drivers. now they have the needed drivers in that area for the statically proven customers on a friday night at that time. once they have 75 drivers over there, boom cloud fades off, and every fare you get will be almost no surge. The point is surge is not based on supply and demand at that time on just that friday, *its based on just supply* needed for an area on a friday night at a certain time. driving to the surge only takes the surge away from the drivers already there. And its Fake.

Stay where you are, get a spot that pings you alot, and stay there. watch the pax app, if the pax app is surging, pick up those people. driver app surges are not current, again 15 min behind. your already late when you see the surge on your driver app.


----------



## Thatendedbadly

I have the driver app and have come to the conclusion that chasing surges in these parts is a losing proposition, drivers will camp waiting for a surge then go to that area. Of course metro Detroit is probably not the best area for this type of work, it's difficult to get around inexpensively-with the exception of Uber-so most people own cars. When you see that you've had multiple fares to pick up Little Caesar's employees you come to the realization that there's something not quite right with that picture.


----------



## Bart McCoy

GILD said:


> Stay where you are, get a spot that pings you alot, and stay there. watch the pax app, if the pax app is surging, pick up those people. driver app surges are not current, again 15 min behind. your already late when you see the surge on your driver app.


15minuts behind? thats pretty drastic. I'll say about 2-5min MAX


----------



## NachonCheeze

It's the same here in CA.....Big surge and most times not one ping....occasionally though


----------



## SafeT

Yes Uber uses surge to sucker drivers to move. Even if a surge is real, it may be just two people at one bar.


----------



## GILD

15 min behind. AS far as my calculations and clock say. maybe 10? it doesnt matter, surge is not real. Ive seen on multiple occasion where the 8x surge is in the middle of a lake or field. That cant be, do fisherman want a uber boat? No, its all lies. 
Also the surge map is not just for uberx! the cloud is showing a surge in select and black, not uberx many times. 
there is only one way to know if there is surge where your about to drive, put the pin of pax app on the area your going to drive to. is it surging? 
most likely not.


----------



## Uberboob

In Portland, ME we all immediately stampede to hop on the ferry when Peaks Island surges. Our favorite surges are in January when 90% of the island residents are gone for the winter $$$. Life is good. (Sarc. off)
Most drivers learn not to chase surges the same way you have. It's really annoying that Uber intentionally wastes our time.
You can tell how many new drivers are around by watching them chase fake surges on the passenger app.


----------



## Manotas

I checked my app this morning just to see that now I'll be notified 3 times a day about areas that are surging... So I went to the settings and turned it off. If I want to see a fake surge area, then I just turn on the app myself


----------



## steel108

Surge is real, the problem lies with whether the pax are willing to pay the increased rates.

It's 5 pm and a lot of riders need a Uber. The surge jumps to 5x. The pax sees this and simply clicks "notify me when surge ends." The demand is there, just not for the rate it's currently going at. Each pax has their own sweet spot. I have had 4x surges going 40+ miles, but most of them are really short rides. The longer rides will wait it out. There's a lot of luck involved in getting a good fare, the best thing you can do is put yourself in position to get lucky.


----------



## Uberboob

steel108 said:


> Surge is real, the problem lies with whether the pax are willing to pay the increased rates.
> 
> It's 5 pm and a lot of riders need a Uber. The surge jumps to 5x. The pax sees this and simply clicks "notify me when surge ends." The demand is there, just not for the rate it's currently going at. Each pax has their own sweet spot. I have had 4x surges going 40+ miles, but most of them are really short rides. The longer rides will wait it out. There's a lot of luck involved in getting a good fare, the best thing you can do is put yourself in position to get lucky.


Most surges are not real. We get surges for Peaks Island here in Portland, ME, only accessible by ferry. During the winter almost nobody is there! The only surge here that will not disappear as soon as you get to it is downtown Portland between 1:15 - 1:40 AM Friday and Saturday nights. As I said before, you can watch the new drivers chase phantom surges all night on the passenger app.


----------



## steel108

Uberboob said:


> Most surges are not real. We get surges for Peaks Island here in Portland, ME, only accessible by ferry. During the winter almost nobody is there! The only surge here that will not disappear as soon as you get to it is downtown Portland between 1:15 - 1:40 AM Friday and Saturday nights. As I said before, you can watch the new drivers chase phantom surges all night on the passenger app.


If one person is requesting an Uber over and over, but there are no drivers, a surge is created. It only takes one driver to end the surge in this scenario. Seems like you live in a bad market, why are you driving for Uber????????


----------



## Uberboob

steel108 said:


> If one person is requesting an Uber over and over, but there are no drivers, a surge is created. It only takes one driver to end the surge in this scenario. Seems like you live in a bad market, why are you driving for Uber????????


 OK, I'll compromise! They're semi real. Sometimes I've found myself in the middle of surges when I turn on the app and go online. No pings, and when I turn on the pax app, I'm surrounded by other drivers who obviously got sucked in.
Portland is a fairly new Uber market. If I'm in town for non business reasons I'll take a couple of pings to justify a mileage deduction for my commute. It adds up.
I stopped driving for Uber on a regular basis after the rate reduction in January. Before that it was borderline worth it at about $15 - $20/hr. gross after Uber fees. I was getting about $500 - $600 over a few days, not any more. Now, after the rate reduction and deluge of new drivers, it's hard to make more than $10/hr. - not worth trashing a vehicle or driving in from the boonies.
I'm also keeping my status just active enough in case things improve come spring when the vacationers and cruise ships return. I'm turning blue holding my breath. Uber on, and chase those surges if you're so inclined.


----------



## oneubersheep

Driver turnover is drastic. Uber needs to keep as many of the 25%ers as they can for as long as they can so most Surge is being filtered to them first as they will chase the carrot.


----------



## Uberboob

They've advertising for drivers all over the radio and Craigslist here in Maine.


----------



## ikabod

My best advice for surge capture is to be in an area where a surge is going to happen. Get there early enough... wait for it.... Wait for it! SURGE!!! Wait for it.... Wait for it..... no ride.... SURGE GOES AWAY!!!! Get a ride 3 miles standard rate.
Waste
of
Time


----------



## The Admiral

Here it is the same.... surge is B.S. Don't chase 'em. The low rates make those surges look good, but in reality I have had very very few surge fares.


----------



## El Janitor

I did it for 2 days and thought it was funny that as I got closer it always shrank.

*"Ecclesiastes 1:14-15 NIV*

*14*I have seen all the things that are done under the sun; all of them are meaningless, a chasing after the wind.

*15*What is crooked cannot be straightened;
what is lacking cannot be counted."

So no more chasing surge clouds anymore.


----------



## The Admiral

El Janitor, that is what they want. You chasing the surges, then they disappear and the rider gets the ride at the low rate. This is Uber's plan and philosophy.


----------



## KGB7

steel108 said:


> If one person is requesting an Uber over and over, but there are no drivers, a surge is created. It only takes one driver to end the surge in this scenario. Seems like you live in a bad market, why are you driving for Uber????????


If there is no Uber cars in the area, the app will say "No UberX Available at this time". So how is one PAX going to request a ride when app wont let you??


----------



## KGB7

GILD said:


> uber says a surge is caused by more passengers than drivers. NO, not true.
> surge is created by uber seeing there is not enough drivers in a area, *regardless of demand at that time.*
> 
> I used the Pax app to find real time surges, drove to the exact locations of a 8.1 surge, according to uber there should of been huge demand there to allow for a 8.1 surge. It was a corn field 1 mile out of small town.
> turned on driver app, not a ping in 30 min, so offline again, on uber pax app, moved into the small town, 7.1 there, turned driver back on, Not one ping for 15 min. there was small bar with 3 old men, no one looking for a ride. so I drove 5 miles to big town. 3.0 surge, turned driver app on, Pings one after the other.
> 
> the point is surge is not real, it a false representation of truth and allows uber to scalp the citys with surge charges when there is not one, and makes drivers think that the city is surging, if a driver drives towards a surge, they cant get to the center 8.0, they will get pings in the outskirts of the surge, thus driving surges of 1.5 instead of 5x. It seems obvious to me then the move is to find the hot spots and just service those areas. do not move to a surge, as it is what uber wants you to do, move from your city to the nearby city to bring in more drivers to that city, but as 10 more drivers arrive, the surge will disappear like magic. The driver app is 10 minutes or more behind the pax app. you see the cloud, but that cloud is 15 min old and surge is gone from that area.
> 
> picture a 3 towns in small area, uber knows it needs 75 drivers in that area on a friday night, using previous friday nights information, demand means nothing. this town has 50 drivers right now, toss up a 8.1 surge cloud, draw in 25 more drivers. now they have the needed drivers in that area for the statically proven customers on a friday night at that time. once they have 75 drivers over there, boom cloud fades off, and every fare you get will be almost no surge. The point is surge is not based on supply and demand at that time on just that friday, *its based on just supply* needed for an area on a friday night at a certain time. driving to the surge only takes the surge away from the drivers already there. And its Fake.
> 
> Stay where you are, get a spot that pings you alot, and stay there. watch the pax app, if the pax app is surging, pick up those people. driver app surges are not current, again 15 min behind. your already late when you see the surge on your driver app.


I see this daily even in the busy DC area. As i drive towards surge zone, it slowly fades away like a fog. And when i get to the center of the surge zone, the Dark Red 4.0 turns into light pink 1.2 surge.


----------



## UTX1

El Janitor said:


> So no more chasing surge clouds anymore.....
> I did it for 2 days and thought it was funny that as I got closer it always shrank.


Maybe it's afraid of you ???


----------



## Rich2nyce

Surge is real but its also quick depending on demand on how many drivers are out. Here in atl i see lots of uber and lyft drivers everywhere in the city. Ive chased 3.8 surges and got lucky and got them. Sometimes i may get a smaller surge nearing the area. But with the amount of drivers out you cant expect surges to last long. And as stated above pax see the surge and will sometimes wait til it lowers or ends because they dont want to spend that much. Ive noticed surges last longest in inclement weather, and when theres very heavy traffic which probably also means less drivers out during those times


----------



## UberN00b

Paxapp means passenger app?


----------



## Uber10k

Uber has surge set up to fool most drivers. They know where it will be busy so they send out the surge clouds to attract Uber's like "flies on S#@*" then 98% of ubies get the usual minimum fare rates and the lucky 1-2% will actually get a surge ride because all other cheap pax cancel right away because of surge. Uber is the pimple of transportation!!


----------



## uberisti

so yesterday morning I am sitting at my starbucks having my morning coffee as I go on shift. I go online and see it is in a surge area. cool! might get a good fare for the first trip of the day. So I sit there waiting for the ping to come in. Sure enough after 5 minutes I get the ping....but it is 12 minutes away LOL. MInd you the surge is still at 2.5x - 2.8x. 12 miles away???? of course not in the surge zone lol. WTF?!?!?! surge is b.s. guys. has happened on many occasions. I live and work in a busy uber area. I dont chase surges but have noticed that moreso than not, they are bogus.


----------



## tipster98122

I really do think there's two types of surges...TRUE surge and FAKE surge.

Uber loves, loves, loves their data. One need only look at their job postings to see how data plays a significant role and informs everything they do.
They collate it. They bundle it. They sell it. They create new revenue streams from it. They twist it to support their public relations.

Consider all the historical data that comes from drivers, when we're idle and when we're transporting pax, which they have at their disposal? And the data they have from pax, too? From this data alone they are able to predict surging areas before they happen.

But why create a Fake surge to send drivers to an area that has no demand? Uber doesn't make money if the driver isn't making money, right?

Because Uber wants to be the default transportation option in the mind of every pax. When a pax is thinking about whether they should drive, bus, cab, trolley, light rail, bike or just walk the 3 blocks to their destination Uber wants all pax to think of their service first.

To do that they have to make sure it's:
--cheaper than all the rest of the options.
--convenient to access and use.
--readily available within just minutes.

Based on what we know of Uber so far is it really so far-fetched to think that they are not manipulating their data to achieve market domination through driver saturation?


----------



## MulletMan

Gotta have that pax app running at all times!!!NO SURGE NO RIDE..I know I'm not killin it, but for part timer, work the surge..surge is my tip and incentive to snag a ride or two a day


----------



## scooterabc

oneubersheep said:


> Driver turnover is drastic. Uber needs to keep as many of the 25%ers as they can for as long as they can so most Surge is being filtered to them first as they will chase the carrot.


How do you know this?


----------



## RedDragonQueen

NachonCheeze said:


> It's the same here in CA.....Big surge and most times not one ping....occasionally though


Exactly. I live in CA as well. High surge no Pings.


----------



## Flarpy

good thread. Keep in mind it does Uber no good if there's a lot of demand and no drivers in the area. Therefore they need to predict demand and send drivers to the area _before_ the demand actually arises.

I imagine by now uber has aggregated enough data to be able to predict surges in the larger markets. those are your fake surges designed to send drivers to an area before demand has increased to the point where they're actually needed.

real surges would be where there's an unanticipated sudden demand. Maybe there is a meeting of people that hasn't happened before that's just getting out or something. those would be real surges


----------



## Eisernes

I'm a paramedic and we use the same system at work to predict the probability of emergencies so that we can have an ambulance already staged in the area. It's called system status management. It has absolutely nothing to do with what is happening here and now. All the surge is saying is that based on historical data there is a high probability of someone needing a ride in this area and we need to make sure there is a driver around to minimize the wait.

However, just like it is 100% impossible to predict a medical emergency, it is also 100% impossible to predict an Uber rider. Chasing a surge is lunacy. It's like being on a battlefield and picking a foxhole. One spot is as good as the next. All about luck.


----------

