# Economics of Tesla



## UberedAgain (May 21, 2017)

Ok just some quick numbers. Assumption are based on a Texas market with $2.00/gallon gas and $0.14/kwh electric:

Lease: Between 10,000 and 15,000 miles year: I would be highly surprised if the lease amount was not exceeded in most markets. If you are in a special snowflake, for example a European market where you need ZEV to get access to the airport, then your economics will differ.

So lets assume that this thing is going to be driven full time for 50 weeks a year, averaging 1000 miles a week. That's 50,000 miles/year. Now one immediate issue is that we don't really know how well a high mileage Tesla will perform I wouldn't trust anything not made by Toyota to go over 150,000 miles. 

So if Tesla's really are as reliable and low maintenance as the company claims, if you can get 250,000 miles out of one before it has to be scrapped then you get an extra two years of life out of your purchase.

Model X: 
Basic fuel numbers for an SUV 50,000/14 mpg * $2.00 gallon =$7,200/year for fuel. Fuel expenses of $0.14/mile.

Basic Power number for Tesla Model X 75D 50,000 * (240 miles/ 75 kwh * $0.14/kwh) charging expense of $2240/year. Fuel expense of $0.045/mile.

For 2016 Model X's that have free supercharging for life charging expense = 0.

So $5000 gas savings over 5 years = $25,000.

With Free supercharging gas savings over 5 years = 36,000.

A new Model X = $85,000 (configured for 7 seats in black) = $60,000 after fuel saving.

An unlimited charging Model X = $49,000 after fuel savings.

As a monthly cost a $32,000 used SUV driven for three years before it is burnt out =10,700/year in capital costs.

A Model X driven for 5 years before it's scrap = 12,000 in capital costs (when adjusted for fuel savings).

Conclusion: A Model X can make sense for a full timer putting 50,000 miles/year onto it. In a couple years the used version of the base Model X are likely to be sought after. 

In the right markets a Model X might be a good idea, but this presumes you plan to stay with driving for 5 years. Probably is a good buy for an established bay area black car company. One very large question is will the Model Y come with a 7 seat option that is black eligible.


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## Trebor (Apr 22, 2015)

UberedAgain said:


> Ok just some quick numbers. Assumption are based on a Texas market with $2.00/gallon gas and $0.14/kwh electric:
> 
> Lease: Between 10,000 and 15,000 miles year: I would be highly surprised if the lease amount was not exceeded in most markets. If you are in a special snowflake, for example a European market where you need ZEV to get access to the airport, then your economics will differ.
> 
> ...


Full time you need to assume 300 miles, 7 days a week.


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## marcoracecar (May 23, 2017)

I drive a Leaf right now and have an early reservation to go up to a Model 3 hopefully later this year. I can tell you this, S and X aren't worth it for a full timer.

An Uber vehicle should be as simple as possible to minimize the chance of failures. The number one failure on a Model S is the door handle. Also, the current offerings are simply too big. I wouldn't have as much flexibility in traffic if I were to drive the S or X.

When it comes to choosing an EV for work, choose the one with the best charging network. Don't assume you will only charge at home. Nissan has a much larger Chademo charging network compared to Tesla. With an EVgo charging plan, it costs $15 a month in network access fees plus $0.10 a minute at the DC fast chargers. 30 minutes at one of these will get me to pretty much full charge in my Leaf, so $3 for 70-80 miles. However, in a car with higher battery capacity, it would be closer to 120 miles in the same charging time. Charging gets slower as you approach full, so it fills up pretty quickly until you hit 80%. Now, the reason I want the Model 3 is because Tesla sells a Chademo adapter which means I will still have access to Nissan's network as well as Tesla's. And at around $3 per ~120 miles it's less than half the fuel cost of a Prius. Mind you, the cost per mile is more with the S and X simply because they use more electricity per mile due to heavier weight, which means charging time per mile will be more too. The Chevy Bolt would be a better option than those 2 cars for maximizing profits.

As far as the SF bay area goes, there are only 3 superchargers to go around. If you want to rely on free supercharging, you will see loads of downtime because you have to drive upwards of 20-30 miles just to see one of these stations, so as an EV driver, I recommend calculating your costs based on paid charging.

I'm 53k miles into my Leaf ownership and I'm still under my 2 years free charging plan. My only costs in 53k miles have only been tires. Expect EVs to pretty much last as long as your next car accident. There is nothing to go wrong, you only need to swap batteries once in a long while. For the new battery cells used in the Model 3 that's gonna be once every 250-300k miles or so. At that time you might need to service your suspension components but that's about it. Brake pads will last you 100-150k miles because you're doing most of your braking with the motor.

Also, take into account that you will physically be able to go for a lot longer in an EV free of power train vibrations. It wears your body down a lot less than a normal car during the day and the need to charge will regulate your rests. I can do 12 on-duty hour days no problem. The most I have done in a day is 17 on-duty hours.


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## UberedAgain (May 21, 2017)

I get about 50 miles / gallon in my Prius. At Texas fuel costs that's about $4/100 miles. Much of the math I've done so far puts a Tesla about on par with a Prius for operating costs. My main thought was that you might be able to generate extra income doing XL, select or SUV.


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## Delilah5 (Mar 20, 2017)

Tesla repair rates are $160 per hour. Some horror stories:

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/insane-cost-repair-teslas-achilles-heel


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## Beritknight (Feb 18, 2016)

Tesloop run Teslas between LA and Vegas. Their first vehicle is getting close to 300k miles now. Still has about 90% of the original battery capacity.

Here's an article from when it ticked over 200k miles. 
https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/29/tales-from-a-tesla-model-s-at-200k-miles/

Tesla talk about their current combination of batteries, motors, etc as a Million Mile Drivetrain. I don't want to think about what the interior would look like after a million miles of Uber passengers, but the rest of the car should make it.

In short, 150,000 is probably a bit conservative.


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## Lapetak (May 27, 2017)

Delilah5 said:


> Tesla repair rates are $160 per hour. Some horror stories:
> 
> https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/insane-cost-repair-teslas-achilles-heel


If is not certified then yes.


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