# Fully self-driving cars “likely decades away”



## IERide

Watching "NOVA Wonders" on KCET about artificial intelligence. They just stated, that according to the experts, ".._if you believe everything you read online you might think self-driving cars are right around the corner, but in reality, they are still likely decades away_"

Looks like you will all still have jobs for a while to come...


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## goneubering

IERide said:


> Watching "NOVA Wonders" on KCET about artificial intelligence. They just stated, that according to the experts, ".._if you believe everything you read online you might think self-driving cars are right around the corner, but in reality, they are still likely decades away_"
> 
> Looks like you will all still have jobs for a while to come...


Shhh. Don't tell the Tomato! He will be crushed.


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## iheartuber

IERide said:


> Watching "NOVA Wonders" on KCET about artificial intelligence. They just stated, that according to the experts, ".._if you believe everything you read online you might think self-driving cars are right around the corner, but in reality, they are still likely decades away_"
> 
> Looks like you will all still have jobs for a while to come...


I have literally said exactly the same thing and the employees and fanboys of SDC said I was crazy. I guess PBS is crazy too?

Tomato where you at? Defend yourself (if you can) oh wait, you can't.


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## IERide

ive also said it here multiple times and was called 'ignorant' among other childish names.


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## RamzFanz

IERide said:


> Watching "NOVA Wonders" on KCET about artificial intelligence. They just stated, that according to the experts, ".._if you believe everything you read online you might think self-driving cars are right around the corner, but in reality, they are still likely decades away_"
> 
> Looks like you will all still have jobs for a while to come...


Self-driving cars have been a reality since May 2016.

Beware any source that has no idea what a self-driving car is.


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## uberdriverfornow

RamzFanz said:


> Self-driving cars have been a reality since May 2016.
> 
> Beware any source that has no idea what a self-driving car is.


The sad thing is that you probably believe the drivel and lies you constantly spew. The only conclusion we can draw is that you get paid to post here.


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## tomatopaste

goneubering said:


> Shhh. Don't tell the Tomato! He will be crushed.


Keep your pants on



iheartuber said:


> I have literally said exactly the same thing and the employees and fanboys of SDC said I was crazy. I guess PBS is crazy too?
> 
> Tomato where you at? Defend yourself (if you can) oh wait, you can't.


Keep your pants on.










Whoops, too late.


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## tomatopaste

iheartuber said:


> I guess PBS is crazy too?


Yes


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## heynow321

look at how the man keeps changing his definitions.


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> Self-driving cars have been a reality since May 2016.


Again, when you come on UP and talk about SDCs make no mistake: no one on UP cares about SDCs unless they are used to create a taxi fleet that will ultimately eclipse Uber.

To get there from where they are no has a lot of steps and a lot of maybes. Just because they've gotten this far does not prove they can get to that point, and most certainly not "within weeks".


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn

Just because you can teach a dog to drive a car, doesn't mean it's safe to let it drive a car.






Does the same go with Computers?


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## tomatopaste

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> Just because you can teach a dog to drive a car, doesn't mean it's safe to let it drive a car.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Does the same go with Computers?


Does the same go with many humans?


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## WeirdBob

goneubering said:


> Shhh. Don't tell the Tomato! He will be crushed.


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## transporter007

IERide said:


> Watching "NOVA Wonders" on KCET about artificial intelligence. They just stated, that according to the experts, ".._if you believe everything you read online you might think self-driving cars are right around the corner, but in reality, they are still likely decades away_"
> 
> Looks like you will all still have jobs for a while to come...


And "Decades Away" translates to NOW 
Seems SDC are already rolling and transporting folk in Texas

https://qz.com/1271375/driverless-c...ching-a-ride-hailing-service-in-dallas-texas/

They will proliferate steadily and quietly until one day when u tap the drivers app it will show "human account deactivated, have a nice day loser"


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## iheartuber

transporter007 said:


> And "Decades Away" translates to NOW
> Seems SDC are already rolling and transporting folk in Texas
> 
> https://qz.com/1271375/driverless-c...ching-a-ride-hailing-service-in-dallas-texas/
> 
> They will proliferate steadily and quietly until one day when u tap the drivers app it will show "human account deactivated, have a nice day loser"


Hey transporter007 when (if) the day should ever come that robot cars are transporting around in any given city as many as or more than what uber/Lyft currently does, then you can say that SDC is "here now". Until then, it's basically the Segway in the sense that yes it's here but no one really cares.

If it ever does get to that point of eclipsing Uber/Lyft in the transportation volume it will take decades (if it even happens at all), and I've already explained the many reasons why that is so.

But, I do understand that you personally WANT it to happen quicker because the quicker it happens the more money you make.

My advice? Better find another way to make money fast. If indeed a fast buck is what you want.


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## IERide

transporter007 said:


> And "Decades Away" translates to NOW
> Seems SDC are already rolling and transporting folk in Texas


Except for:
1) This rollout doesnt start until over a month from now
2) It is limited to a very small, nearly empty, business park
3) Each car has a human driver

So, no, not NOW, and no, not 'self driving cars', and not really "rolling out in Texas" ...
But other than those minor details, yah, self driving cars have pretty much already taken over..


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## Just Another Uber Drive

goneubering said:


> Shhh. Don't tell the Tomato! He will be crushed.


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## tomatopaste

Just Another Uber Drive said:


>


The Tomato never lags behind.


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## transporter007

One thing that doesn’t need to Ketch-Up is SDC, cause it’s HERE


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## IERide

transporter007 said:


> One thing that doesn't need to Ketch-Up is SDC, cause it's HERE


Yah, but no..
But, you can prove me wrong by posting a link to a source that confirms that self driving cars are "here" .
And when we say "self driving car", we mean, a car, that drives, _by itself, unlimited, on open, public roads._


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## iheartuber

transporter007 said:


> One thing that doesn't need to Ketch-Up is SDC, cause it's HERE


You keep telling yourself that, buddy!

Hey, maybe if I keep telling myself I can fly someday I might actually be able to fly!



IERide said:


> Yah, but no..
> But, you can prove me wrong by posting a link to a source that confirms that self driving cars are "here" .
> And when we say "self driving car", we mean, a car, that drives, _by itself, unlimited, on open, public roads._


I'll do you one better: I wanna see the day come when uber and robo taxis operate side by side and the public chooses robots over Uber.

I admit that day may come- but if it does it's decades away.


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## tomatopaste

iheartuber said:


> You keep telling yourself that, buddy!
> 
> Hey, maybe if I keep telling myself I can fly someday I might actually be able to fly!
> 
> I'll do you one better: I wanna see the day come when uber and robo taxis operate side by side and the public chooses robots over Uber.
> 
> I admit that day may come- but if it does it's decades away.


Hell, humans will be banned from most roads within decades.


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## iheartuber

tomatopaste said:


> Hell, humans will be banned from most roads within decades.


Um, do you even know anything about American History? A little thing I like to call freedom. Read up on it.

Hey... tell you what. You wanna have all robots all the time on the road? You'll have better luck in a socialist country. Pretty much anywhere in Europe.


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## tomatopaste

iheartuber said:


> Um, do you even know anything about American History? A little thing I like to call freedom. Read up on it.
> 
> Hey... tell you what. You wanna have all robots all the time on the road? You'll have better luck in a socialist country. Pretty much anywhere in Europe.


How's your freedom to take your horse and buggy on the 405 doing?


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## iheartuber

tomatopaste said:


> How's your freedom to take your horse and buggy on the 405 doing?


You don't get it do you?

If we drive horse & buggies or gas cars, or hybrid cars or electric cars or even self driving cars that we own, WE are in control.

In your fantasy world Waymo has all the control.

They kill dictators for things like that


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## tomatopaste

iheartuber said:


> You don't get it do you?
> 
> If we drive horse & buggies or gas cars, or hybrid cars or electric cars or even self driving cars that we own, WE are in control.
> 
> In your fantasy world Waymo has all the control.
> 
> They kill dictators for things like that


You'll be able to take your self-driving car on the 405 but you won't be able to manually drive your car on the 405. You'll still be able to manually drive on the PCH till the second coming of Christ but you won't be able to manually drive on the 405.


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## iheartuber

tomatopaste said:


> You'll be able to take your self-driving car on the 405 but you won't be able to manually drive your car on the 405. You'll still be able to manually drive on the PCH till the second coming of Christ but you won't be able to manually drive on the 405.


Yeah about that... no one is going to give up that freedom. I know, I know... your clients will make a buttload of dough if they can somehow make that happen.

But people in this country go ape shit when you even TALK about taking away their guns. How do you think they're gonna be when you tell them they will be limited on where they can drive?

Not gonna happen broski


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## tomatopaste

iheartuber said:


> Yeah about that... no one is going to give up that freedom. I know, I know... your clients will make a buttload of dough if they can somehow make that happen.
> 
> But people in this country go apesh**t when you even TALK about taking away their guns. How do you think they're gonna be when you tell them they will be limited on where they can drive?
> 
> Not gonna happen broski


This whole "giving up your right to drive"meme is nonsense. That's like saying people will never buy a dishwasher cause they're not going to give up their right to wash dishes by hand. 99 percent of the trips you take you just need to get somewhere. There will always be certain roads where you can drive if you want to but almost no one will want to. You can still ride a horse, almost no one does.


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## Taxi Driver in Arizona

tomatopaste said:


> Hell, humans will be banned from most roads within decades.


SDC technology will likely be banned soon.


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## iheartuber

tomatopaste said:


> This whole "giving up your right to drive"meme is nonsense. That's like saying people will never buy a dishwasher cause they're not going to give up their right to wash dishes by hand. 99 percent of the trips you take you just need to get somewhere. There will always be certain roads where you can drive if you want to but almost no one will want to. You can still ride a horse, almost no one does.


Look bro, the thing you don't get is this isn't about horse transpo evolving into auto transpo. This is about having the freedom to drive anywhere you want anytime you want vs being put into a box of dos and dont's.

Maybe you do get it and you're just trying to use smoke and mirrors. If so don't underestimate people. I'll admit the masses can be stupid...but they're not that stupid.

Finally, the biggest challenge I see to your idea is not that the tech won't work or unsupervised people will turn those cars into public toilets or the ride will be slower and more annoying than having a human driver (though those will all also be true), but the biggest challenge will be getting people to give up the freedom of knowing they can go anywhere at anytime they want or need to by their own freewill.

You can laugh it off in online debates but don't ignore it in your conference room meetings.


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## uberdriverfornow

Taxi Driver in Arizona said:


> SDC technology will likely be banned soon.


Sportscenter Top 10 post


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> Yeah about that... no one is going to give up that freedom. I know, I know... your clients will make a buttload of dough if they can somehow make that happen.
> 
> But people in this country go ape shit when you even TALK about taking away their guns. How do you think they're gonna be when you tell them they will be limited on where they can drive?
> 
> Not gonna happen broski


Guns are constitutionally guaranteed. Cars are not. HUGE difference.

As to your post on freedom, you neglect the freedoms not driving grants you. We WILL chose freedom to communicate and do as we wish over rush hour traffic, every time. Do I want to sit in traffic as a driver or a passenger? It's so obvious, it shouldn't even have to be asked.


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## Flier5425

tomatopaste said:


> You'll be able to take your self-driving car on the 405 but you won't be able to manually drive your car on the 405. You'll still be able to manually drive on the PCH till the second coming of Christ but you won't be able to manually drive on the 405.


I see it more likely there will be specified lanes, much like HOV / Express lanes now, where it will be SDV only. They will be separated from the standard lanes with a physical barrier including cutouts to merge onto traffic in order to exit the highways. This is multiple decades away in my humble opinion. Heck, Fully SDV (Level 5 autonomous vehicles) carrying passengers is many decades away, as well.


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## RamzFanz

Flier5425 said:


> I see it more likely there will be specified lanes, much like HOV / Express lanes now, where it will be SDV only. They will be separated from the standard lanes with a physical barrier including cutouts to merge onto traffic in order to exit the highways. This is multiple decades away in my humble opinion. Heck, Fully SDV (Level 5 autonomous vehicles) carrying passengers is many decades away, as well.


Level 5 means nothing to us as drivers or economically. Level 4 is enough to take the majority of our work.

SDCs don't need any infrastructure changes and are asking for none.


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## uberdriverfornow

RamzFanz said:


> Level 5 means nothing to us as drivers or economically. Level 4 is enough to take the majority of our work.
> 
> SDCs don't need any infrastructure changes and are asking for none.


Still literally nothing to indicate that sdc's will ever take a single job from drivers. Not a single video showing them ever working correctly even after supposedly millions of miles of supposed practice.


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## iheartuber

uberdriverfornow said:


> Still literally nothing to indicate that sdc's will ever take a single job from drivers. Not a single video showing them ever working correctly even after supposedly millions of miles of supposed practice.


Exactly. This.


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## uberdriverfornow

iheartuber said:


> Exactly. This.


yet they expect people to risk their lives to get in these death traps just because


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## iheartuber

uberdriverfornow said:


> yet they expect people to risk their lives to get in these death traps just because


No, truth be told they know it's a long shot

But they think if they just keep spewing propaganda they can make it come true.

That will work about as much as if I keep saying over and over again that I can fly and then try to fly off a building.


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## Mordred

There are people who dedicate their lives to the pursuit of breaking into computer systems. People aren't going to so readily put their lives in the hands of one. At least I won't


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## RamzFanz

uberdriverfornow said:


> Still literally nothing to indicate that sdc's will ever take a single job from drivers. Not a single video showing them ever working correctly even after supposedly millions of miles of supposed practice.


I've posted videos. You don't get your own set of facts.



uberdriverfornow said:


> yet they expect people to risk their lives to get in these death traps just because


No one has been killed by an SDC.



iheartuber said:


> No, truth be told they know it's a long shot
> 
> But they think if they just keep spewing propaganda they can make it come true.
> 
> That will work about as much as if I keep saying over and over again that I can fly and then try to fly off a building.


Great news! You CAN fly, just buy a ticket. Unfortunately for you, a computer will do 99% of the flying. I know it's hard to accept and that you form opinions without facts or by denying them, but again, it's true. We can fly and SDCs are here.


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## uberdriverfornow

RamzFanz said:


> I've posted videos. You don't get your own set of facts.


As has been demonstrated time and time again, the only videos you posted were promotional videos that never showed a sdc demonstrating they can drive themselves with no input from the driver.



RamzFanz said:


> No one has been killed by an SDC.


https://www.google.com/search?q=uber+sdc+death&oq=uber+sdc+death


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## RamzFanz

uberdriverfornow said:


> As has been demonstrated time and time again, the only videos you posted were promotional videos that never showed a sdc demonstrating they can drive themselves with no input from the driver.
> 
> https://www.google.com/search?q=uber+sdc+death&oq=uber+sdc+death


Except, of course, that's false. The videos show the car driving itself on open roads with live traffic and real riders. You don't get your own set of facts. Of course it's produced by Waymo, it's their car, which means nothing.

The SDC didn't cause that accident. Uber's actions and the driver's inaction did. The SDC detected the pedestrian and would have reacted if allowed to. So, no, an SDC has not killed a person.


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## uberdriverfornow

RamzFanz said:


> Except, of course, that's false. The videos show the car driving itself on open roads with live traffic and real riders. You don't get your own set of facts. Of course it's produced by Waymo, it's their car, which means nothing.
> 
> The SDC didn't cause that accident. Uber's actions and the driver's inaction did. The SDC detected the pedestrian and would have reacted if allowed to. So, no, an SDC has not killed a person.


Find me a video over 15 minutes of length that shows a SDC driving itself with no input from a driver.

I'll wait.

And this was your original quote....



RamzFanz said:


> No one has been killed by an SDC.


And, again this is my answer to that quote.

https://www.google.com/search?q=uber+sdc+death

Thanks for playing


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> I've posted videos. You don't get your own set of facts.
> 
> No one has been killed by an SDC.
> 
> Great news! You CAN fly, just buy a ticket. Unfortunately for you, a computer will do 99% of the flying. I know it's hard to accept and that you form opinions without facts or by denying them, but again, it's true. We can fly and SDCs are here.


Bro, I meant fly all by myself like a bird.
Who likes TSA lines? Blech!

The reason why humans cannot fly on their own and never will is because of the laws of physics and gravity.

There are similar laws of business, consumer demand, and common sense that will prevent SDCs being used as taxis to become more widespread than the Segway anytime quicker than decades if ever.

Lastly, I need to repeat this point because it seems to be the main reason for your argument.

I KNOW SDCs are already "here" but I DONT CARE about that. I only care if a very specific set of circumstances happens:

1. SDCs become used as a fleet of taxis
2. Company who creates the robo taxi biz (Waymo) becomes more publicly used than Uber.

No matter how many strides SDCs have made thus far, those two specific conditions are still a long way to go.


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> Bro, I meant fly all by myself like a bird.
> Who likes TSA lines? Blech!
> 
> The reason why humans cannot fly on their own and never will is because of the laws of physics and gravity.
> 
> There are similar laws of business, consumer demand, and common sense that will prevent SDCs being used as taxis to become more widespread than the Segway anytime quicker than decades if ever.
> 
> Lastly, I need to repeat this point because it seems to be the main reason for your argument.
> 
> I KNOW SDCs are already "here" but I DONT CARE about that. I only care if a very specific set of circumstances happens:
> 
> 1. SDCs become used as a fleet of taxis
> 2. Company who creates the robo taxi biz (Waymo) becomes more publicly used than Uber.
> 
> No matter how many strides SDCs have made thus far, those two specific conditions are still a long way to go.


1) Already happening.
2) Waymo and Uber are in talks. Be careful what you look forward to.

I guarantee "they" (the largest technology companies in the world and all of the major auto companies) know more about the market and expected demand than you can even fathom.


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> 1) Already happening.
> 2) Waymo and Uber are in talks. Be careful what you look forward to.
> 
> I guarantee "they" (the largest technology companies in the world and all of the major auto companies) know more about the market and expected demand than you can even fathom.


Just because you're a big company doesn't mean you are immune to an epic fail. I would hope for all parties involved that that train wreck doesn't happen.

See: New Coke, et al


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> Just because you're a big company doesn't mean you are immune to an epic fail. I would hope for all parties involved that that train wreck doesn't happen.
> 
> See: New Coke, et al


Yes, New Coke was a failure of epic proportions. And yet, we still have soda and Coke and their dozens of wildly successful soda brands. Obviously, there will be missteps by these corporations, Uber freakin' killed a woman with a car that was completely capable of detecting her and avoiding the accident! And yet, despite all of the naysayer predictions on here that when someone was killed the entire effort would collapse, here we are, with the entire world still drinking soda and almost the entire auto and major tech companies still betting on SDCs.

Are they just stupid?

You're trying to convince us that you know more than the auto, rental/fleet management, and tech industries about transportation and markets. That they don't see the obvious challanges they face even after decades of research involving hundreds of billions of dollars.

Sorry, I'm gonna have to go with the worldwide industry and market experts who have already been successful at every turn in this effort over the Uber Driver. Call me crazy.


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> Yes, New Coke was a failure of epic proportions. And yet, we still have soda and Coke and their dozens of wildly successful soda brands. Obviously, there will be missteps by these corporations, Uber freakin' killed a woman with a car that was completely capable of detecting her and avoiding the accident! And yet, despite all of the naysayer predictions on here that when someone was killed the entire effort would collapse, here we are, with the entire world still drinking soda and almost the entire auto and major tech companies still betting on SDCs.
> 
> Are they just stupid?
> 
> You're trying to convince us that you know more than the auto, rental/fleet management, and tech industries about transportation and markets. That they don't see the obvious challanges they face even after decades of research involving hundreds of billions of dollars.
> 
> Sorry, I'm gonna have to go with the worldwide industry and market experts who have already been successful at every turn in this effort over the Uber Driver. Call me crazy.


I can't call you crazy because that would be a violation of the UP rules where I cannot engage in name-calling.

I will say that your ideas don't pass muster with me and I strongly disagree with your timelines of events.

To be clear, let's focus on where we agree and differ, exactly:

You think SDCs being used as taxis will come someday. I agree with that. The only difference we have is the timeline.

You think someday means "soon" within a few years.

The corporate yes-man the Tomato is talking Smack about a much more aggressive timeline than that: one year

Myself and most others here on UP Think for many reasons it will be decades away.

So, we wait first a year, then two, then three and see if your vision is close or not and we can re-assess at that time.

I have one simple question for you: how can you think these big corporations are so on it, so smart, so quick to bring this to market if you aren't even fully convinced it's safe to put your own child in one of these?


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## transporter007

*Waymo Buys 62,000 Chrysler Minivans for Ride-SDC Hailing Service*
*https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/business/waymo-chrysler-minivans.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well*


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## iheartuber

transporter007 said:


> *Waymo Buys 62,000 Chrysler Minivans for Ride-SDC Hailing Service*
> *https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/business/waymo-chrysler-minivans.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well*


They better save the receipt. They're going to have to return most of those


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> I can't call you crazy because that would be a violation of the UP rules where I cannot engage in name-calling.
> 
> I will say that your ideas don't pass muster with me and I strongly disagree with your timelines of events.
> 
> To be clear, let's focus on where we agree and differ, exactly:
> 
> You think SDCs being used as taxis will come someday. I agree with that. The only difference we have is the timeline.
> 
> You think someday means "soon" within a few years.
> 
> The corporate yes-man the Tomato is talking Smack about a much more aggressive timeline than that: one year
> 
> Myself and most others here on UP Think for many reasons it will be decades away.
> 
> So, we wait first a year, then two, then three and see if your vision is close or not and we can re-assess at that time.
> 
> I have one simple question for you: how can you think these big corporations are so on it, so smart, so quick to bring this to market if you aren't even fully convinced it's safe to put your own child in one of these?


Trust but verify. I trust they are safe and will ride in them, at least Waymo's product, but will verify statistically before I allow my daughters to ride in them. Just being a parent. The moment I see they are statistically safer in real world action, I will switch them.

I think SDCs will be used as taxi's soon? No, I think they already are and have been since Oct. 2017, because they have. App based, request a car, real passengers, live roads, real traffic, no driver.

The real question you're asking is when will they be used by the public at large, not invitation only, and Waymo's answer is this year. At this point, there is no logical reason not to believe them as they have exceeded predictions thus far.

All indications, Waymo exceeding predictions, cars already in live service, 82,000 more already on order for delivery starting this year, Waymo stating they will begin opening 25 new markets starting this year, almost all of the rest of the auto and major tech companies in the world predicting their own launches between 2019-2021, are all against you. You can't apply any historically supported logical reasoning to support your naysayer point of view.


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> Trust but verify. I trust they are safe and will ride in them, at least Waymo's product, but will verify statistically before I allow my daughters to ride in them. Just being a parent. The moment I see they are statistically safer in real world action, I will switch them.
> 
> I think SDCs will be used as taxi's soon? No, I think they already are and have been since Oct. 2017, because they have. App based, request a car, real passengers, live roads, real traffic, no driver.
> 
> The real question you're asking is when will they be used by the public at large, not invitation only, and Waymo's answer is this year. At this point, there is no logical reason not to believe them as they have exceeded predictions thus far.
> 
> All indications, Waymo exceeding predictions, cars already in live service, 82,000 more already on order for delivery starting this year, Waymo stating they will begin opening 25 new markets starting this year, almost all of the rest of the auto and major tech companies in the world predicting their own launches between 2019-2021, are all against you. You can't apply any historically supported logical reasoning to support your naysayer point of view.


Waymo never said the public at large will use their robo taxis in greater numbers than what they currently use with uber. If you pay attention to the exact words Waymo used, they said they will make the service available for sale (as opposed to being invitation only) sometime this year.

It is YOU not Waymo who then took it one step further and said that once it's available to the general public they will eat it up like it's an iPhone.

I see no evidence of that.

I see evidence of the contrary:

Poll after poll of a large majority of people saying they're not comfortable riding in a robo car.

I hear that these cars are geo-fenced and can only go to certain places so that cuts off a major customer base

I hear that they don't drive so well on the freeways so that cuts off more Customers.

Then you have a company that's planning on doing something that Uber never did which is to absorb all the costs, responsibilities and headaches in house instead of how Uber does it which is make each individual driver take care of maintenance.

I could go on but you get the idea. I have all these reasons and more why I think if Waymo launched as a pay service this year the public response will be lackluster to say the least.

I'm really curious to hear why you think all Waymo has to do is open for business and they will see customers line up around the block like they were waiting to buy the new iPhone?

So far the only reason I ever heard was "I just think that's how it is and any smart person would tell you so". Not exactly the best argument IMHO.

As a side note, Waymo really doesn't care if their taxi biz is a hit or a miss. They just want to build SDCs and get them out there any way they can. If the taxi biz is a bust, they will just pivot and power the cars being sold at the dealerships with SD features. It's other people invested in robo taxis being a success. Not Waymo. Waymo is invested in SDCs being a success, not SDC taxis.


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> Waymo never said the public at large will use their robo taxis in greater numbers than what they currently use with uber. If you pay attention to the exact words Waymo used, they said they will make the service available for sale (as opposed to being invitation only) sometime this year.
> 
> It is YOU not Waymo who then took it one step further and said that once it's available to the general public they will eat it up like it's an iPhone.
> 
> I see no evidence of that.
> 
> I see evidence of the contrary:
> 
> Poll after poll of a large majority of people saying they're not comfortable riding in a robo car.
> 
> I hear that these cars are geo-fenced and can only go to certain places so that cuts off a major customer base
> 
> I hear that they don't drive so well on the freeways so that cuts off more Customers.
> 
> Then you have a company that's planning on doing something that Uber never did which is to absorb all the costs, responsibilities and headaches in house instead of how Uber does it which is make each individual driver take care of maintenance.
> 
> I could go on but you get the idea. I have all these reasons and more why I think if Waymo launched as a pay service this year the public response will be lackluster to say the least.
> 
> I'm really curious to hear why you think all Waymo has to do is open for business and they will see customers line up around the block like they were waiting to buy the new iPhone?
> 
> So far the only reason I ever heard was "I just think that's how it is and any smart person would tell you so". Not exactly the best argument IMHO.
> 
> As a side note, Waymo really doesn't care if their taxi biz is a hit or a miss. They just want to build SDCs and get them out there any way they can. If the taxi biz is a bust, they will just pivot and power the cars being sold at the dealerships with SD features. It's other people invested in robo taxis being a success. Not Waymo. Waymo is invested in SDCs being a success, not SDC taxis.


For most of your post, I would say "You heard wrong."

As for the last paragraph:

Waymo has always been developing a platform they can lease to car makers. I blogged about this long ago.

Of course they care if the TNC SDC market is a success, it's one of the biggest SDC markets, but they're not betting on a winner, they're going to empower all comers with SDC technology.


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## tohunt4me

Robots will refuse to bow down and Serve Man.

Just as before.

And Scientists have grown a Human ear on a Rats Back !

They arent everywhere.

I wont even Mention some of the Other things theyve done.

Human Ears on Rats Backs are still decades off . . .

Sex Robots will Arrive Long before RoboCars.

What a wonderfull future


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> they're not betting on a winner, they're going to empower all comers with SDC technology.


Ding ding ding.

Exactly.

In other words: if robo taxis turn out to be a bust it's no skin off Waymo's nose. They'll just use their SDC platform somewhere else and move on.

But the Tomato will be out of a job.


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## Kobayashi Maru

They're here, they're proliferating 
Catalysts include: government, the wealthy, corporations and insurance companies 
People will die
Autonomous will grow and grow into all facets of everyone's life
Period


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## iheartuber

Kobayashi Maru said:


> They're here, they're proliferating
> Catalysts include: government, the wealthy, corporations and insurance companies
> People will die
> Autonomous will grow and grow into all facets of everyone's life
> Period


But you leave out one very important fact: left unattended, these taxis will turn into toilets on wheels.

And nobody wants to ride in a toilet

And they will be left unattended.

So I call bs on your "they will grow and grow" statement.

Here? Yes

Will they get any bigger than a novelty? Doesn't appear so. Why? Because no one is really putting the care and attention into maintaining this.


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## iheartuber

Kobayashi Maru said:


> They're here, they're proliferating
> Catalysts include: government, the wealthy, corporations and insurance companies
> People will die
> Autonomous will grow and grow into all facets of everyone's life
> Period


Oh for crying out loud....

Look you have your vision of how you think this will play out, I have mine.

The difference is, I back mine up with logic. Unattended cars will get trashed fast- fact. Waymo is not showing any signs that they will do their due diligence to painstakingly care for these cars- fact. No one will ride in a toilet. Logical conclusion.

You, on the other hand, give only one reason why you believe what you do: "because I said so"

Um... yeah not so much with that


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## Mordred

iheartuber said:


> Oh for crying out loud....
> 
> Look you have your vision of how you think this will play out, I have mine.
> 
> The difference is, I back mine up with logic. Unattended cars will get trashed fast- fact. Waymo is not showing any signs that they will do their due diligence to painstakingly care for these cars- fact. No one will ride in a toilet. Logical conclusion.
> 
> You, on the other hand, give only one reason why you believe what you do: "because I said so"
> 
> Um... yeah not so much with that


I have to agree. Without a human present these cars will get nasty quickly.


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## goneubering

I had a traffic engineer as a rider who told me SDCs ARE coming in the future but in his professional opinion it will take at least ten years and maybe 20 to 30 years.


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## iheartuber

goneubering said:


> I had a traffic engineer as a rider who told me SDCs ARE coming in the future but in his professionsl opinion it will take at least ten years and maybe 20 to 30 years.


So Lemme get this straight... an SDC engineer said SDCs are 10-30 years away (aka "decades away") but we're supposed to believe the yahoo trolls who post here saying they're going to be ubiquitous within a year?


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## goneubering

iheartuber said:


> So Lemme get this straight... an SDC engineer said SDCs are 10-30 years away (aka "decades away") but we're supposed to believe the yahoo trolls who post here saying they're going to be ubiquitous within a year?


His specialty is commuter rail but he watches the SDC world because he likes the idea. I told him I did not share his enthusiasm.


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## UG1

The thing to consider is that while fully self-driving cars might even be possible today, it's the environment around them stopping it from being commercially sold. 

Tons of factors come into play such as what insurance would mean, who would be responsible in case of any accidents etc. 

There would have to be many variables at play that need to be looked at besides the actual tech in self driving cars.


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## iheartuber

UG1 said:


> The thing to consider is that while fully self-driving cars might even be possible today, it's the environment around them stopping it from being commercially sold.
> 
> Tons of factors come into play such as what insurance would mean, who would be responsible in case of any accidents etc.
> 
> There would have to be many variables at play that need to be looked at besides the actual tech in self driving cars.


My exact words have always been: "For many reasons, we are decades away from having SDCs operate as a taxi service on a mass scale"

Which is pretty much what you said here too.


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> Oh for crying out loud....
> 
> Look you have your vision of how you think this will play out, I have mine.
> 
> The difference is, I back mine up with logic. Unattended cars will get trashed fast- fact. Waymo is not showing any signs that they will do their due diligence to painstakingly care for these cars- fact. No one will ride in a toilet. Logical conclusion.
> 
> You, on the other hand, give only one reason why you believe what you do: "because I said so"
> 
> Um... yeah not so much with that


You don't back up your arguments with logic. You back them up with a driver's point of view while intentionally neglecting the logical answers. I will bet my last dollar there is no problem you can solve that they, every major auto company, most major tech companies, and many of the fleet management companies in the world, can't.

Logic would tell you that messes can easily be detected and charged for, just as they are today. Not an issue, a profit center. People make messes, people get charged fat fees, people stop making messes, that's logical. At least, that's what my lifetime of self-employment and business owner would tell me. Logic would also tell you that there will be tiered services where people can avoid common issues for a price, just as there is now. The more fiscally minded may have to deal with more issues, just as they willingly do now on public transportation.

For every "roadblock" naysayers throw up, there are many answers. They just aren't willing or knowledgeable enough to contemplate the resolutions.



UG1 said:


> The thing to consider is that while fully self-driving cars might even be possible today, it's the environment around them stopping it from being commercially sold.
> 
> Tons of factors come into play such as what insurance would mean, who would be responsible in case of any accidents etc.
> 
> There would have to be many variables at play that need to be looked at besides the actual tech in self driving cars.


These were all addressed in concept years ago and are currently being addressed in legislation.

Who is responsible in an accident today? The at-fault party(s). Simple. You own a car and insure that car, if it causes an accident, you and your insurance are responsible. If the car manufacturer acted with negligence or malice, then they could also be held responsible civilly and/or criminally. We have centuries of precedent.

Self-driving is already commercially available and has been since May of 2016 in the Netherlands and elsewhere soon after and as of Oct, 2017, here in the US. What stopped them?


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> So Lemme get this straight... an SDC engineer said SDCs are 10-30 years away (aka "decades away") but we're supposed to believe the yahoo trolls who post here saying they're going to be ubiquitous within a year?


I like how you reduce most of the actual experts worldwide, whose opinions are readily available to you if you chose to look, to "yahoo trolls" because some rail guy agrees with your illogical timeline. You are in denial.


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> You don't back up your arguments with logic. You back them up with a driver's point of view while intentionally neglecting the logical answers. I will bet my last dollar there is no problem you can solve that they, every major auto company, most major tech companies, and many of the fleet management companies in the world, can't.
> 
> Logic would tell you that messes can easily be detected and charged for, just as they are today. Not an issue, a profit center. People make messes, people get charged fat fees, people stop making messes, that's logical. At least, that's what my lifetime of self-employment and business owner would tell me. Logic would also tell you that there will be tiered services where people can avoid common issues for a price, just as there is now. The more fiscally minded may have to deal with more issues, just as they willingly do now on public transportation.
> 
> For every "roadblock" naysayers throw up, there are many answers. They just aren't willing or knowledgeable enough to contemplate the resolutions.
> 
> These were all addressed in concept years ago and are currently being addressed in legislation.
> 
> Who is responsible in an accident today? The at-fault party(s). Simple. You own a car and insure that car, if it causes an accident, you and your insurance are responsible. If the car manufacturer acted with negligence or malice, then they could also be held responsible civilly and/or criminally. We have centuries of precedent.
> 
> Self-driving is already commercially available and has been since May of 2016 in the Netherlands and elsewhere soon after and as of Oct, 2017, here in the US. What stopped them?


The reason why I think I am better than these "multi billion dollar corporations" is because I do this every single day and they don't.

For example- I've given thousands of rides and have only had to deal with vomit messes about 4 or 5 times. Not a lot in the grand scheme of things but I do have to vaccume every single day and clean up smaller messes very regularly


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> The reason why I think I am better than these "multi billion dollar corporations" is because I do this every single day and they don't.
> 
> For example- I've given thousands of rides and have only had to deal with vomit messes about 4 or 5 times. Not a lot in the grand scheme of things but I do have to vaccume every single day and clean up smaller messes very regularly


Fleet management/rental companies do this every day on a scale far beyond what you've ever dealt with. Do you think they know there will be messes and how to deal with them? How many millions of times do they have to deal with messes before you consider their collective knowledge as equal to a driver's?

Did you really imagine the major tech companies in the world haven't considered heat? Comeondude. Heat is an issue they deal with ALL of the time. It's probably on their top 3 of hardware issues they prevent. System cooling is its own industry and they are very good at it.

Example: NVIDIA is a major tech company born from the intensive heat producing gaming processor and heat-intensive graphics board industries. They are now a major SDC processor producer. Do you think they considered heat or ignored it? You, a driver, considered heat, but these experts in technology heat alleviation, did not?

Nay-sayers throw these "roadblocks" up and when you point out logical answers and expert opinion, they plug their ears and just keep repeating their opinion.

OK, here's your chance to apply your vast transportation business knowledge and apply logic in a reasonable manner:

How is detection, using currently available technology as well as passenger reports, followed by hefty fees to the mess-maker, not the answer to messes?

I profit off of messes. That's the experience I, as a driver, am bringing to the table. Any and all messes are reported and I love getting those fees. You got in my car with grass covered shoes? Pictures, vacuum for a minute or two, get paid. Love it.


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> Fleet management/rental companies do this every day on a scale far beyond what you've ever dealt with. Do you think they know there will be messes and how to deal with them? How many millions of times do they have to deal with messes before you consider their collective knowledge as equal to a driver's?
> 
> Did you really imagine the major tech companies in the world haven't considered heat? Comeondude. Heat is an issue they deal with ALL of the time. It's probably on their top 3 of hardware issues they prevent. System cooling is its own industry and they are very good at it.
> 
> Example: NVIDIA is a major tech company born from the intensive heat producing gaming processor and heat-intensive graphics board industries. They are now a major SDC processor producer. Do you think they considered heat or ignored it? You, a driver, considered heat, but these experts in technology heat alleviation, did not?
> 
> Nay-sayers throw these "roadblocks" up and when you point out logical answers and expert opinion, they plug their ears and just keep repeating their opinion.
> 
> OK, here's your chance to apply your vast transportation business knowledge and apply logic in a reasonable manner:
> 
> How is detection, using currently available technology as well as passenger reports, followed by hefty fees to the mess-maker, not the answer to messes?
> 
> I profit off of messes. That's the experience I, as a driver, am bringing to the table. Any and all messes are reported and I love getting those fees. You got in my car with grass covered shoes? Pictures, vacuum for a minute or two, get paid. Love it.


Buddy, I can't read that, I'm sorry. Way too rambling. But I got the gist

Let me just say this: one year from now we shall check back

I made this prediction before but I'll say it again:

One of 2 things will happen one year from now:
1) Waymo will launch and the crowd response will be lukewarm at best
OR
2) Waymo will see that the response will be lackluster and as such they won't even launch.

Check back with me next year


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> Buddy, I can't read that, I'm sorry. Way too rambling. But I got the gist
> 
> Let me just say this: one year from now we shall check back
> 
> I made this prediction before but I'll say it again:
> 
> One of 2 things will happen one year from now:
> 1) Waymo will launch and the crowd response will be lukewarm at best
> OR
> 2) Waymo will see that the response will be lackluster and as such they won't even launch.
> 
> Check back with me next year


It won't take a year to prove those two points wrong. We can revisit this in 6 months or less.

I see you're going to use nonsense remarks like "rambling" to hide like the trolls on here do. That's too bad. Nothing about that post even approaches "rambling." You're just hiding from the logic and reason you don't want to face.

You can't answer my questions and we both know it.

Let's sum up what you're saying so far:

1) You know more about fleet management than worldwide fleet management/rental companies with decades of success serving billions.

2) You know more about how heat affects technology than worldwide technology leaders with decades of success serving billions.

All this because you sometimes have to vacuum your car and it's hot out? That about right?

Wait... but you've found solutions to both of those problems... and you insist they can't?!

Wow, you're good!


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> It won't take a year to prove those two points wrong. We can revisit this in 6 months or less.
> 
> I see you're going to use nonsense remarks like "rambling" to hide like the trolls on here do. That's too bad. Nothing about that post even approaches "rambling." You're just hiding from the logic and reason you don't want to face.
> 
> You can't answer my questions and we both know it.
> 
> Let's sum up what you're saying so far:
> 
> 1) You know more about fleet management than worldwide fleet management/rental companies with decades of success serving billions.
> 
> 2) You know more about how heat affects technology than worldwide technology leaders with decades of success serving billions.
> 
> All this because you sometimes have to vacuum your car and it's hot out? That about right?
> 
> Wait... but you've found solutions to both of those problems... and you insist they can't?!
> 
> Wow, you're good!


Six months? Even better

Talk atcha about this on Jan 1, 2019

One question though: if things start looking to be going more my way that your way come that date will you move the goalposts and tell me how you "need another six months" or something like that? Just curious


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## RamzFanz

iheartuber said:


> Six months? Even better
> 
> Talk atcha about this on Jan 1, 2019
> 
> One question though: if things start looking to be going more my way that your way come that date will you move the goalposts and tell me how you "need another six months" or something like that? Just curious


Nope on the goalposts, I don't do that.

It will be what it will be.

The 6 months are for your two predictions being squashed, not the for significant impact on Uber drivers. Significant impact is still a year.

1) Within 6 months Waymo or a player to be named later will launch a public service

2) Within 6 months people will enthusiastically ride SDCs and not just as a novelty

How about the loser posts a thread explaining how and why they were wrong and how and why the other was correct along with updated predictions for significant impact for Uber drivers?


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## iheartuber

RamzFanz said:


> Nope on the goalposts, I don't do that.
> 
> It will be what it will be.
> 
> The 6 months are for your two predictions being squashed, not the for significant impact on Uber drivers. Significant impact is still a year.
> 
> 1) Within 6 months Waymo or a player to be named later will launch a public service
> 
> 2) Within 6 months people will enthusiastically ride SDCs and not just as a novelty
> 
> How about the loser posts a thread explaining how and why they were wrong and how and why the other was correct along with updated predictions for significant impact for Uber drivers?


I'm down for that.

I have a question though, strictly from curiosity:

"Player to be named later?" Huh? Are you saying someone other than Waymo is working on this in secret and then in 6 months will be like... "surprise! Here we are! We're launching a SDC service!" ???


----------

