# What Happens To Fares After The Uber IPO?



## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

It's hard to believe there are enough suckers for Uber to pull off a successful IPO. However it looks like this is a real possibility. But make no mistake, the IPO has nothing to do with setting up a framework to make Uber into a profitable company, it's the investors trying to dump this turd on naive suckers and cashing out.

So let's say they pull off the IPO, then what happens? At that point the investor spigot is turned off. Yes, they'll have billions of dollars but they'll also have to open their books and try to become profitable, and that's not possible without at least doubling fares. However, when you double fares you lose half your customers. The Uber business model is unworkable and Uber knows it, all they care about now is cashing out so they can leave others holding the bag.


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## ColumbusRides (Nov 10, 2018)

I'm also curious about this


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Since there is an unending supply of drivers and newbies signing up.
History shows past fare reductions 1. drivers squawked, but 2. continued to drive and sign up.

I suspect uber will Keep Fares Low for passengers
And TAKE more from drivers

Results: drivers will 1. squawk and continue to chauffeur ubers clients
2. Newbies will continue to sign up.

Drivers are disposable
Passengers are not


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## Disgusted Driver (Jan 9, 2015)

I disagree, I think they will keep fares low for drivers but gradually increase the fare to pax as they have been doing in the past.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Disgusted Driver said:


> I disagree, I think they will keep fares low for drivers but gradually increase the fare to pax as they have been doing in the past.


Why? Drivers have proven they'll accept numerous reductions,
Proven they're ok with being treated like a doormat.

Passenger is king


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Nothing should happen. If they raise fares they risk losing customers and money. IPO means you are investing in the company. If Amazon had raised it's prices after the IPO it might have failed. The IPO investment means that the company should find ways to grow and expand, the problem is there is not much more growth for Uber. Amazon expanded and did the Prime thing where you get free shipping and they end up making a fortune from charging people for that because i"m sure they can right off shipping costs.

You invest for the long term. The company needs to make profits or head towards that goal. You don't invest for them to raise prices. They don't need to raise prices they are already stealing extra from drivers and drivers gladly keep driving.

Knowing Uber they may raise rates and cut the drivers out of it.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> Nothing should happen. If they raise fares they risk losing customers and money. IPO means you are investing in the company. If Amazon had raised it's prices after the IPO it might have failed. The IPO investment means that the company should find ways to grow and expand, the problem is there is not much more growth for Uber. Amazon expanded and did the Prime thing where you get free shipping and they end up making a fortune from charging people for that because i"m sure they can right off shipping costs.
> 
> You invest for the long term. The company needs to make profits or head towards that goal. You don't invest for them to raise prices. They don't need to raise prices they are already stealing extra from drivers and drivers gladly keep driving.


In a perfect world YOU may invest for long term
But MANY don't.

Once u have stockholders they want profits.
No profits? Dump the CEO & BOD.

Next Up, New CEO will be expected to turn a profit. Drivers are easy uncomplaining sheep who seem to enjoy being kicked in the sack.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> So let's say they pull off the IPO, then what happens? At that point the investor spigot is turned off. .


 The people who buy the IPO stock are the new investors and the original investors make a fortune because their stock just shot up. It was private stock before and now it's public stock, the only problem is they can't sell of the stock will drop, but I doubt they care, the only way to keep the money in is if they think the company will become valuable. Perhaps original investors have to hold on to it a certain time.

I don't know stocks but that's what I do know.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> The people who buy the IPO stock are the new investors and the original investors make a fortune because their stock just shot up. It was private stock before and now it's public stock, the only problem is they can't sell of the stock will drop, but I doubt they care, the only way to keep the money in is if they think the company will become valuable. Perhaps original investors have to hold on to it a certain time.
> 
> I don't know stocks but that's what I do know.


i concur : u don't know stocks nor investors


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> In a perfect world YOU may invest for long term
> But MANY don't.
> 
> Once u have stockholders they want profits


Oh they are not getting profits, I doubt Uber is worth $40 billion and they plan to sell $120 billion or more worth of stock,

Ford if only worth about $34 billion and they are a real company that produces things not a taxi app stealing from drivers and customers.

i think it took Amazon 10 years to become profitable after the IPO, but I may be mistaken.



UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> i concur : u don't know stocks nor investors


I never claimed to, why don't you tell us what you think you know.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> Oh they are not getting profits, I doubt Uber is worth $40 billion and they plan to sell $120 billion or more worth of stock,
> 
> i think it took Amazon 10 years to become profitable after the IPO, but I may be mistaken.
> 
> I never claimed to, why don't you tell us what you think you know.


Amazon is a completely different animal, involved in many areas including their most lucrative: Federal Government Cloud Services and Amazon Web Services..
E commerce is only one facet of Amazon



Lee239 said:


> Oh they are not getting profits, I doubt Uber is worth $40 billion and they plan to sell $120 billion or more worth of stock,
> 
> Ford if only worth about $34 billion and they are a real company that produces things not a taxi app stealing from drivers and customers.
> 
> ...


Already did. Reread if u must


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

Amazon also spent their money on actual assets.

Mr amazon ceo, you lost 100 million last year...

Yeah but we increased our warehouse space by x million square foot and we built 150 million worth of wharehouses.

Ok.. sure mr ceo that’s not as good as profit but I see the value in that investment.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Amazon is a completely different animal, it


It sure is but Dana has said look at what Amazon did when talking about Uber's potential IPO.


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Since there is an unending supply of drivers and newbies signing up.
> History shows past fare reductions 1. drivers squawked, but 2. continued to drive and sign up.
> 
> I suspect uber will Keep Fares Low for passengers
> ...


Here's the problem with that, Uber loses 4 billion dollars a year and after the IPO the investor spigot is turned off, then Uber has to sink or swim on their own. The business model doesn't work and can't work, so matter how many billions they raise, it's only a matter of time before they implode.


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## dirtylee (Sep 2, 2015)

Do you hear of any other APP being worth billions? 

At the end of the day, uber is just a ****ing app. Google & apple can remove them from the app store. by the time it clears the courts, it would be absolutely worthless.

A fool and their money shall easily be parted with.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> Here's the problem with that, Uber loses 4 billion dollars a year and after the IPO the investor spigot is turned off, then Uber has to sink or swim on their own. The business model doesn't work and can't work, so matter how many billions they raise, it's only a matter of time before they implode.


The IPO is their investor spigot. When you buy any stock it's an investment in the company.



dirtylee said:


> Do you hear of any other APP being worth billions?
> 
> At the end of the day, uber is just a @@@@ing app. Google & apple can remove them from the app store. by the time it clears the courts, it would be absolutely worthless.
> 
> A fool and their money shall easily be parted with.


and when self driving cars come into play and are realistic in 10 years GM or Ford can start their own app to do driverless taxi if it's still a worthwhile proposition which I think given the limited hours in a day and the distance it can travel and empty time from one pick up to another and traffic it may not be as profitable as Uber thought.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Single Malt said:


> It's hard to believe there are enough suckers for Uber to pull off a successful IPO. However it looks like this is a real possibility. But make no mistake, the IPO has nothing to do with setting up a framework to make Uber into a profitable company, it's the investors trying to dump this turd on naive suckers and cashing out.
> 
> So let's say they pull off the IPO, then what happens? At that point the investor spigot is turned off. Yes, they'll have billions of dollars but they'll also have to open their books and try to become profitable, and that's not possible without at least doubling fares. However, when you double fares you lose half your customers. The Uber business model is unworkable and Uber knows it, all they care about now is cashing out so they can leave others holding the bag.


Brokers are FIGHTING over I.P.O.
IN ORDER TO MAKE COMMISSION ON SELLING PENSION FUNDS CRAP.



dirtylee said:


> Do you hear of any other APP being worth billions?
> 
> At the end of the day, uber is just a @@@@ing app. Google & apple can remove them from the app store. by the time it clears the courts, it would be absolutely worthless.
> 
> A fool and their money shall easily be parted with.


Remove WITHOUT NOTICE !?!?

FOR NO CAUSE !?!?

JUST LIKE UBER DOES TO DRIVERS ?

Justice ?


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> The IPO is their investor spigot. When you buy any stock it's an investment in the company.


Right, but it's a one time deal. Then the books are open and people see Uber loses a billion a quarter and the jig is up. Uber has long been nothing more than a ponzi scheme. The IPO investor is a sap paying off the original investors. Uber will never create a self driving system of their own and they have no intention of doing so; all they have to do is hold it out to IPO investors as a real possibility for another three months to hook these new suckers.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Single Malt said:


> Here's the problem with that, Uber loses 4 billion dollars a year and after the IPO the investor spigot is turned off, then Uber has to sink or swim on their own. The business model doesn't work and can't work, so matter how many billions they raise, it's only a matter of time before they implode.


Pure unadulterated speculation



Lee239 said:


> It sure is but Dana has said look at what Amazon did when talking about Uber's potential IPO.


You don't accept Dara's business practices nor treatment of disposable drivers
However you do accept Dara's direction when it supports your position.

Dude, u can't play neonatal shopping cart debate
You're either for Dara or dismiss him.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Pure unadulterated speculation
> 
> You don't accept Dara's business practices nor treatment of disposable drivers
> However you do accept Dara's direction when it supports your position.
> ...





UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Pure unadulterated speculation
> 
> You don't accept Dara's business practices nor treatment of disposable drivers
> However you do accept Dara's direction when it supports your position.
> ...


Its Amazing what you can do with access to peoples Retirement Investment Funds !

Unlimited Chaos !

Each Trade brings Commission Fees !


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

A public corporation is required by it's stock holders to turn a profit.
Fares will double. Driver pay will remain the same.
CEOs will get fired EVERY quarter.
Until the profit comes, which will not come.

Uber stock will be junk within 5 quarters.


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

Disgusted Driver said:


> I disagree, I think they will keep fares low for drivers but gradually increase the fare to pax as they have been doing in the past.


Investors are subsidizing 40 to 60 percent of the fare. When investors cash out, pax have to cover the full cost, i.e. fares have to double. But even doubling fares won't work cause then Uber's only breaking even. And doubling fares causes you to lose half your customers.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Single Malt said:


> Investors are subsidizing 40 to 60 percent of the fare. When investors cash out, pax have to cover the full cost, i.e. fares have to double. But even doubling fares won't work cause then Uber's only breaking even. And doubling fares causes you to lose half your customers.


Right. Cause once the fare is as much as a taxi and it's cold and rainy, a cab on a stand is way more attractive than an Uber 5 minutes away.


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## UsedToBeAPartner (Sep 19, 2016)

Not everyone gets rich with the company stock. Here's an interesting story.
*CEO of MoviePass' parent company had $7.25 million in stock that's now worth less than $50*
Check out HMNY stock. Currently worth $0.02 cents. This could easily be the same results that Uber and Lyft see as their path to profitability becomes exposed as being impossible.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> A public corporation is required by it's stock holders to turn a profit.
> Fares will double. Driver pay will remain the same.
> CEOs will get fired EVERY quarter.
> Until the profit comes, which will not come.
> ...


Thx u sir. U prove my point, Whenever I need financial, legal or tax advice, I always seek out an uber driver. The worlds most underrated source


TwoFiddyMile said:


> Right. Cause once the fare is as much as a taxi and it's cold and rainy, a cab on a stand is way more attractive than an Uber 5 minutes away.


Reads like you're making a case for uber to keep fares Low
While increasing revenue by taking more from disposable drivers


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> Investors are subsidizing 40 to 60 percent of the fare. When investors cash out, pax have to cover the full cost, i.e. fares have to double. But even doubling fares won't work cause then Uber's only breaking even. And doubling fares causes you to lose half your customers.


The investors are not subsidizing regular fares only gimmicks like Pool that Uber took to compete with Lyft.

Regular fares are pure profit for Uber, they use no gas, no labor, no car, no maintenance and keep the first $2.50 or so plus 25% of the fare and whatever else they want to skim from shortchanging the driver by overcharging the pax and paying the driver for miles and time driven.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> The investors are not subsidizing regular fares only gimmicks like Pool that Uber took to compete with Lyft.
> 
> Regular fares are pure profit for Uber, they use no gas, no labor, no car, no maintenance and keep the first $2.50 or so plus 25% of the fare and whatever else they want to skim from shortchanging the driver by overcharging the pax and paying the driver for miles and time driven.


Yet: u continue to chauffeur uber clients with a smile 

Ya gotta admit, ubers an evil genius


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

I can't wait to read the prospectus Uber and the underwriters put together. "We've been in business for ten years and never made a profit, and yeah, we did lose 1 billion dollars last quarter but with your money everything will change."


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Single Malt said:


> I can't wait to read the prospectus Uber and the underwriters put together. "We've been in business for ten years and never made a profit, and yeah, we did lose 1 billion dollars last quarter but with your money everything will change."


No profit IPOs are the standard not the exception. Tech ain't the smokestack industries of decades ago

*No profit? No problem. Investors keep snapping up loss-making companies*
*https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/no-...wing-appetite-for-unprofitable-companies.html

WSJ
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/201...n-a-growing-club-profitless-public-companies/*

*Over 80% Of 2018 IPOs Are Unprofitable, Setting New Record*
*https://news.crunchbase.com/news/over-80-of-2018-ipos-are-unprofitable-setting-new-record/

The Amazon Era: No Profits, No Problem
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmar...mazon-era-no-profits-no-problem/#6f3e6cdb437a*


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## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> It's hard to believe there are enough suckers for Uber to pull off a successful IPO. However it looks like this is a real possibility. But make no mistake, the IPO has nothing to do with setting up a framework to make Uber into a profitable company, it's the investors trying to dump this turd on naive suckers and cashing out.
> 
> So let's say they pull off the IPO, then what happens? At that point the investor spigot is turned off. Yes, they'll have billions of dollars but they'll also have to open their books and try to become profitable, and that's not possible without at least doubling fares. However, when you double fares you lose half your customers. The Uber business model is unworkable and Uber knows it, all they care about now is cashing out so they can leave others holding the bag.


Or, they can cut the corporate office desk flat out of a company that only needs a few small coding teams sense it is entirely app based.

Since the majority of their "costs" have been fat paycheck useless jobs and dumping research money in the self driving area you can bet that gets dumped as well since all the vehicle based expenses precludes profitability when the company owns their own fleet.

Also, rider subsidies will stop.
All the free ride credits and false complaints will be buttoned down as will referral bonuses, quests and any other "incentives" will also be gone.

It amazes me the number of rides we provide and folks don't see how it could be streamlined and made profitable.


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## oldfart (Dec 22, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> It's hard to believe there are enough suckers for Uber to pull off a successful IPO. However it looks like this is a real possibility. But make no mistake, the IPO has nothing to do with setting up a framework to make Uber into a profitable company, it's the investors trying to dump this turd on naive suckers and cashing out.
> 
> So let's say they pull off the IPO, then what happens? At that point the investor spigot is turned off. Yes, they'll have billions of dollars but they'll also have to open their books and try to become profitable, and that's not possible without at least doubling fares. However, when you double fares you lose half your customers. The Uber business model is unworkable and Uber knows it, all they care about now is cashing out so they can leave others holding the bag.


the investors will be selling their shares but that dosent generate any money for the company. For the company to realize any new money (the billions you speak of). they will have to create and sell new shares.


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

Yeah, that's what an IPO is.



Asificarewhatyoudontthink said:


> Also, rider subsidies will stop.
> All the free ride credits and false complaints will be buttoned down as will referral bonuses, quests and any other "incentives" will also be gone.


This essentially raises fares. If you raise fares you lose customers. Once you cutoff the gravy train you see how many real customers you really have and that's not going to be a pretty sight. When you cut driver pay by eliminating referral bonuses, quests and other incentives you won't be able to churn and burn drivers.


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## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> Yeah, that's what an IPO is.
> 
> This essentially raises fares. If you raise fares you lose customers. Once you cutoff the gravy train you see how many real customers you really have and that's not going to be a pretty sight. When you cut driver pay by eliminating referral bonuses, quests and other incentives you won't be able to churn and burn drivers.


Yeah, what a "loss" getting rid of the scum liars that were Not Paying For Services anyway.

The loss of the worst of riders will, not one bit, damage profits how?


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## DustyToad (Jan 10, 2018)

I think we’ll see a bigger push for pool ridership. (Like a big $ difference vs X) 

It seems like it will have to play a role in them turning a profit. 

What do you think?


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> No profit IPOs are the standard not the exception. Tech ain't the smokestack industries of decades ago
> 
> *No profit? No problem. Investors keep snapping up loss-making companies*
> *https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/no-...wing-appetite-for-unprofitable-companies.html
> ...


You can't compare Amazon with Uber. Amazon was investing in warehouses, Uber is paying customers to be customers.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Single Malt said:


> You can't compare Amazon with Uber. Amazon was investing in warehouses, Uber is paying customers to be customers.


I'm not comparing anything
You're argument is with Forbes, WSJ, NY Times, CNBC & Bloomberg.
Pretty sure they're not uber drivers
like U & me


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Yet: u continue to chauffeur uber clients with a smile
> 
> Ya gotta admit, ubers an evil genius


Wrong I quit over a year ago, I only drove for 45 days and it was a waste of time and money.


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## D713 (Nov 15, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> The IPO is their investor spigot. When you buy any stock it's an investment in the company.
> 
> and when self driving cars come into play and are realistic in 10 years GM or Ford can start their own app to do driverless taxi if it's still a worthwhile proposition which I think given the limited hours in a day and the distance it can travel and empty time from one pick up to another and traffic it may not be as profitable as Uber thought.


Yeah, no way. their investors scream when they stray from their primary business of making cars and trucks. Remember when Ally Financial was GMAC and the federal government had to bail them out to the tune of $50MM?



Single Malt said:


> Right, but it's a one time deal. Then the books are open and people see Uber loses a billion a quarter and the jig is up. Uber has long been nothing more than a ponzi scheme. The IPO investor is a sap paying off the original investors. Uber will never create a self driving system of their own and they have no intention of doing so; all they have to do is hold it out to IPO investors as a real possibility for another three months to hook these new suckers.


It's not a one-time thing. You expand the balance sheet with giant 1st lien revolver senior to a bunch of 2nd tranches then wrap new equity issuances around future acquisitions. Trust me, the Game hasn't even started, the sideline reporters are still interviewing cheerleaders.



oldfart said:


> the investors will be selling their shares but that dosent generate any money for the company. For the company to realize any new money (the billions you speak of). they will have to create and sell new shares.


The way an IPO works is that following an investor road show, the underwriters poll the appetite of their investors and determine the proper pricing for the new equity being issued. Then at launch, all of that equity is purchased by the underwriters (these are the big wall street banks) who immediately sell it to their investors and that's when it goes live and you see the shares being to trade on CNBC. The proceeds from the original sale less fees goes directly to the company. Everything else you see on tv only affects the shareholders and employees. * also the original investors and employees have a lockup period of X amount of days, so Day One mostly all you are seeing is straight retail buying.


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## Atom guy (Jul 27, 2016)

Disgusted Driver said:


> I disagree, I think they will keep fares low for drivers but gradually increase the fare to pax as they have been doing in the past.


Raising fares is costing Uber customers. I just started driving for Lyft also, and quite a few passengers have gotten in the car and complained that Uber was several dollars more expensive. They are also wise to using Lyft when Uber is surging. So there is a growing constraint on Uber's ability to raise prices. They really need to buy out Lyft. Then they'd have a little more pricing power. Even then, though, if they go too high, people would start to go back to the bus (which seems to be where a good portion of my customers used to be).


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## Atom guy (Jul 27, 2016)

Lee239 said:


> The IPO is their investor spigot. When you buy any stock it's an investment in the company.
> 
> and when self driving cars come into play and are realistic in 10 years GM or Ford can start their own app to do driverless taxi if it's still a worthwhile proposition which I think given the limited hours in a day and the distance it can travel and empty time from one pick up to another and traffic it may not be as profitable as Uber thought.


GM and Ford (or any automaker) getting into rideshare is just a very dumb idea. Do they think that passengers will have 15 different manufacturer rideshare apps on their phone, and have to decide each day whether they want to be picked up in a Chevy or a Ford? The automakers should focus on selling the driverless cars to the rideshare companies, and the rideshare companies need to stop wasting money developing their own autonomous tech - each sticking to what they know best.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Personally I can't wait for the IPO to fail, and then the company to fail and need to be sold off. Hopefully a non criminal enterprise takes it over.


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## oldfart (Dec 22, 2017)

D713 said:


> Yeah, no way. their investors scream when they stray from their primary business of making cars and trucks. Remember when Ally Financial was GMAC and the federal government had to bail them out to the tune of $50MM?
> 
> It's not a one-time thing. You expand the balance sheet with giant 1st lien revolver senior to a bunch of 2nd tranches then wrap new equity issuances around future acquisitions. Trust me, the Game hasn't even started, the sideline reporters are still interviewing cheerleaders.
> 
> The way an IPO works is that following an investor road show, the underwriters poll the appetite of their investors and determine the proper pricing for the new equity being issued. Then at launch, all of that equity is purchased by the underwriters (these are the big wall street banks) who immediately sell it to their investors and that's when it goes live and you see the shares being to trade on CNBC.  The proceeds from the original sale less fees goes directly to the company. Everything else you see on tv only affects the shareholders and employees. * also the original investors and employees have a lockup period of X amount of days, so Day One mostly all you are seeing is straight retail buying.


not exactly true. Ive underlined to part i question

In this case we dont know if any of the proceeds will go to the company. some might, but we dont know how much... What we do know is that much of the proceeds, (if not all) will be going to the folks that have invested in the company up to now

The big question in my mind, is how much of the company (what percentage) has already been sold and how much of what hasnt been sold will be sold through this IPO, The difference between the sale proceeds and what the old investors get will go to the company Most likely there will be a sizable percentage of the company that will not be sold. This percentage will be available to sell in future secondary offerings


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## oldfart (Dec 22, 2017)

Atom guy said:


> GM and Ford (or any automaker) getting into rideshare is just a very dumb idea. Do they think that passengers will have 15 different manufacturer rideshare apps on their phone, and have to decide each day whether they want to be picked up in a Chevy or a Ford? The automakers should focus on selling the driverless cars to the rideshare companies, and the *rideshare companies need to stop wasting money developing their own autonomous tech -* each sticking to what they know best.


exactly right


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

Rideshare growth has basically stopped.

There are no more riders.

Autonomous cars will cost the same or more as drivers.

Fares will go up.........

Uber needs to stop wasting money on the other BS.....bikes, scooters, SDC's, flying cars (insert Jetson's theme music here)......etc......it's just a taxi app.


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> I'm not comparing anything
> You're argument is with Forbes, WSJ, NY Times, CNBC & Bloomberg.
> Pretty sure they're not uber drivers
> like U & me


https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/why-ubers-ipo-is-for-suckers.html

"That pattern of early losses followed by massive profits might be true for other tech success stories like Amazon and Facebook, but when it comes to Uber, it's baloney, according to Huran. "After nine years, Uber isn't within hailing distance of making money and continues to bleed more red ink than any start-up in history. By contrast, Facebook and Amazon were solidly cash-flow positive by their fifth year," notes Smith.

"Smith doesn't put it quite so bluntly, but the only reason people buy into the Uber mythology is because they're suckers."


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## darata (Nov 28, 2018)

sound informative.


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## kelaric (Dec 16, 2018)

Disagree with most on here. Lyft and Uber going IPO means they'll expand into other areas. It's misguided to think the pool of riders is limited if they're taking the long play. They'll squeeze out the rest of the Taxi and Limo market until it's dead (more riders). They'll move into a situation where they have a bus or metro or lightrail and squeeze that to death (more riders). Imagine you're an Uber/Lyft driver driving a freaking bus/lightrail/subway. Millennials are already moving away from owning cars and using rideshare. Frankly, it's just cheaper. I could sell my car today and pay for an uber every day to and from work and on weekends and spend less than it costs me in insurance and car payments and gas. Fact.

Imagine in just 5 years. It will be autonomous, it will be a lot of public transit (by Uber or Lyft) and it will be a lot of people ordering a car to pick them up--not a person, a car. Drivers will get paid better, get overtime, get health benefits, but there will be a *LOT *less drivers. Maybe 1/3rd or even less.

Public transit is going to be huge going forward for both Lyft and Uber. After they squeeze out the little guys (the cab companies, limo's etc) they'll move into that arena.

This IPO isn't a small thing, it ensures they'll be flush with cash for the foreseeable future to expand. Companies go public because they want to scale in size.


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

kelaric said:


> Disagree with most on here. Lyft and Uber going IPO means they'll expand into other areas. It's misguided to think the pool of riders is limited if they're taking the long play. They'll squeeze out the rest of the Taxi and Limo market until it's dead (more riders). They'll move into a situation where they have a bus or metro or lightrail and squeeze that to death (more riders). Imagine you're an Uber/Lyft driver driving a freaking bus/lightrail/subway. Millennials are already moving away from owning cars and using rideshare. Frankly, it's just cheaper. I could sell my car today and pay for an uber every day to and from work and on weekends and spend less than it costs me in insurance and car payments and gas. Fact.
> 
> Imagine in just 5 years. It will be autonomous, it will be a lot of public transit (by Uber or Lyft) and it will be a lot of people ordering a car to pick them up--not a person, a car. Drivers will get paid better, get overtime, get health benefits, but there will be a *LOT *less drivers. Maybe 1/3rd or even less.
> 
> ...


Uber isn't going to squeeze anyone.

_"But, but, but - you may say - Uber has established a large business in cities over the world. Yes, it's easy to get a lot of traffic by selling at a discount. Uber is subsidizing ride costs. Across all its businesses, Uber was providing services at only roughly 74 percent of their cost in its last quarter. Uber was selling its services at only roughly 64 percent of their cost in 2017, with a GAAP profit margin of negative 57 percent. As a reference point, in its worst four quarters, Amazon lost $1.4 billion on $2.8 billion in sales, for a negative margin of 50 percent. Amazon reacted by firing over 15 percent of its workers."_

If current investors are able to find enough suckers with poor math skills via an IPO, then these initial investors are able to parachute out and the investor spigot gets turned off. Now pax have to cover the full cost.

_"Uber has never presented a case as to why it will ever be profitable, let alone earn an adequate return on capital. Investors are pinning their hopes on a successful IPO, which means finding greater fools in sufficient numbers."_

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/will-uber-survive-the-next-decade.html


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

kelaric said:


> Disagree with most on here. Lyft and Uber going IPO means they'll expand into other areas. It's misguided to think the pool of riders is limited if they're taking the long play. They'll squeeze out the rest of the Taxi and Limo market until it's dead (more riders). They'll move into a situation where they have a bus or metro or lightrail and squeeze that to death (more riders). Imagine you're an Uber/Lyft driver driving a freaking bus/lightrail/subway. Millennials are already moving away from owning cars and using rideshare. Frankly, it's just cheaper. I could sell my car today and pay for an uber every day to and from work and on weekends and spend less than it costs me in insurance and car payments and gas. Fact.
> 
> Imagine in just 5 years. It will be autonomous, it will be a lot of public transit (by Uber or Lyft) and it will be a lot of people ordering a car to pick them up--not a person, a car. Drivers will get paid better, get overtime, get health benefits, but there will be a *LOT *less drivers. Maybe 1/3rd or even less.
> 
> ...


There's no guarantee that there will be a line of willing investors. And brokerage houses do not want to sell junk because it comes back on them so I don't see any but the most scandalous brokers handling this and agressively offering it to the public.


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## Kodyhead (May 26, 2015)

I'm guessing most of the people early on didn't get paid that much but paid in shares which they probably got screwed on later lol


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

kelaric said:


> I could sell my car today and pay for an uber every day to and from work and on weekends and spend less than it costs me in insurance and car payments and gas. Fact.
> 
> .


I couldn't. My last used car cost me $6K used and lasted me 10 years, With maintenance it's $750 a year, insurance costs about the same, $1500 a year use of car and I don't use much gas maybe $10 a week. So it costs me $2000 a year to own a car. that's less than $40 a week.

I knew someone who had to go to rehab three times a week and it cost $20 each way. that's $120 a week.

I was lucky to make $40 a day driving Uber, i had days i made less than $10, gross, pun not intended.

Even an Uber driver couldn't afford to use Uber.

I found a great deal on my current used car for $4k that I used for Uber. It's much cheaper for me to own a car than pay for Uber.

So what you say is a fact is a fact only for you.


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

kelaric said:


> Disagree with most on here. Lyft and Uber going IPO means they'll expand into other areas. It's misguided to think the pool of riders is limited if they're taking the long play. They'll squeeze out the rest of the Taxi and Limo market until it's dead (more riders). They'll move into a situation where they have a bus or metro or lightrail and squeeze that to death (more riders). Imagine you're an Uber/Lyft driver driving a freaking bus/lightrail/subway. Millennials are already moving away from owning cars and using rideshare. Frankly, it's just cheaper. I could sell my car today and pay for an uber every day to and from work and on weekends and spend less than it costs me in insurance and car payments and gas. Fact.
> 
> Imagine in just 5 years. It will be autonomous, it will be a lot of public transit (by Uber or Lyft) and it will be a lot of people ordering a car to pick them up--not a person, a car. Drivers will get paid better, get overtime, get health benefits, but there will be a *LOT *less drivers. Maybe 1/3rd or even less.
> 
> ...


You obviously lack a basic understanding of fundamental economics and business cycles. I can't believe Uber finds such poorly educated paid shills to populate message boards.

Uber's growth has slowed dramatically. It is now going to transition to the game of retaining market share amongst the various competitors in the rideshare marketplace. Ergo, lower revenues at first to keep customers using your service in the marketplace, over someone else's. It's already happening with flat rate subscription services everyone is announcing. Cannibalization is the next path forward. Rates need to go up for the company to continue to be an ongoing concern with little to no growth, but competition will prevent this in the short term until 1-2 clear winners emerge.

They have already squeezed the taxi and limo companies everywhere they operate. But, they are also not allowed to operate everywhere either. Uber has been around for 9 years, remember ? The juice has already been squeezed from the orange.

Public transit is called public transit for a reason. It is not privately owned by a for profit company. In every municipality around the world public transit exists on taxpayer remittances and taxpayer funded subsidies. Uber is not going to get any of that as a public for profit company, nor do they have the funds (or could get them) to put billions into the infrastructure needed at every single municipal level worldwide, let alone revenues to cover the annual cost base of such an operation, in every single market. A proper subway system like Paris, NY, London, Montreal, Moscow, etc, has for example all that is required. You don't need Uber or anything else in these places. I've been to all those cities and used their subways, have you ?

Self driving vehicles are decades away from general public acceptance, and use worldwide, on a large scale, if at all. Sure, maybe they can drive one around today at 2/3 the speed limit on a very confined and restricted route successfully 95% of the time. But the moment something greater than basic AI is required to resolve an issue, the car and it's pax are stuck and going nowhere. They just don't work with human driven vehicles on the same roads, let alone other problems. I'm still waiting for George Jetson to pick me up......LOLOLOL !!

Finally, freedom is what driving is all about. Personal car ownership will not go away because of ridesharing.

Economically, Uber doesn't make sense on any scale without limitless VC funding or subsidies. One of which will never happen, and the other one wants out, which is why they hired Dara to put lipstick on this pig before than big dance.


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

Forgot to add.....growth......heh.

In my market there were 12 million taxi trips in the year before Uber came around. In the year after, guess what ? There were 12.1 million trips.......

7 million in taxi's and 5.1 million in Ubers. That is your growth. The inefficient and corrupt taxi industry took up one the wazoo (and rightfully so, it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of mugs IMHO). Taking over a mature market has it's limits. There is no growth, only cannibalization. Now that Lyft and others are coming what do you expect will happen ?

The pie will just get sliced up between more players. Fares will drop until competitors give up and then the last one (or two) standing will hike them. Don't believe me, look at the case for low cost carriers in the airline industry.


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> There's no guarantee that there will be a line of willing investors. And brokerage houses do not want to sell junk because it comes back on them so I don't see any but the most scandalous brokers handling this and agressively offering it to the public.


Morgan Stanley is the underwriter. How they can create a prospectus that attracts investors without committing fraud is hard to see. There will be lawsuits within a few months after the IPO from the new owners claiming they were lied to.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> Morgan Stanley is the underwriter. How they can create a prospectus that attracts investors without committing fraud is hard to see. There will be lawsuits within a few months after the IPO from the new owners claiming they were lied to.


https://www.corp-research.org/morgan-stanley


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## Blingin (Feb 7, 2018)

So, they lose $4 Billion a year, is that for the bolts and nuts of running the app? I don't think so, it's probably more about expanding and buying up other businesses. I think we can all continue to give rides and Uber can keep collecting their cut under real business managers. It's not like Uber has to buy cars and spend money on fuel and maintenance. Just run the ****ing app.
Anybody knows what the real costs are to keep operating? Any links?


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

Blingin said:


> So, they lose $4 Billion a year, is that for the bolts and nuts of running the app? I don't think so, it's probably more about expanding and buying up other businesses. I think we can all continue to give rides and Uber can keep collecting their cut under real business managers. It's not like Uber has to buy cars and spend money on fuel and maintenance. Just run the @@@@ing app.
> Anybody knows what the real costs are to keep operating? Any links?


It's from paying customers to be customers. Once you stop subsidizing fares, which will have to happen after the current investors parachute out, you either have to double fares just to break even or you continue to lose 4 billion dollars a year of the new money the IPO shareholders just gave you. As a private company Uber doesn't have to disclose financials, as a public company they have to disclose everything.



Lee239 said:


> https://www.corp-research.org/morgan-stanley


This is why I'm very interested in reading the prospectus, which is a legal document. This has never been attempted before, a company has never burned through as much cash as Uber and then tried to go public.

"Uber has raised an unprecedented $20 billion in investor funding - 2,600 times more than Amazon's pre-IPO funding."



TwoFiddyMile said:


> There's no guarantee that there will be a line of willing investors. And brokerage houses do not want to sell junk because it comes back on them so I don't see any but the most scandalous brokers handling this and agressively offering it to the public.


To get the kind of numbers Uber is hoping for, 70 billion to 120 billion, it has to come from institutional investors. You can't get that kind of money from retail investors. Problem is, institutional investors all know how to do math.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> \
> 
> To get the kind of numbers Uber is hoping for, 70 billion to 120 billion, it has to come from institutional investors. You can't get that kind of money from retail investors. Problem is, institutional investors all know how to do math.


$120 billion is a crazy number, they even thru around the number $130 billion recently which is Bezos net worth.


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

Single Malt said:


> Morgan Stanley is the underwriter. How they can create a prospectus that attracts investors without committing fraud is hard to see. There will be lawsuits within a few months after the IPO from the new owners claiming they were lied to.


Remember Theranos, Enron, et al........? It happens all the time. Public or private.

Today you have too much stupid printed money floating around searching for a yield, any yield at all. The worldwide commercial bond market has basically started to freeze up with billions of offerings cancelled this month due to a lack of investor appetite. These are established profitable companies that cannot get their debt rolled over or raise new capital. And for those who did, it has become very, very, expensive.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...n-first-time-2008-not-single-junk-bond-prices

With the volume and dumbass retail investor involved, Uber will be a trading opportunity, nothing more, like BItcoin was. Sheep shall be fleeced.


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## dmoney155 (Jun 12, 2017)

Single Malt said:


> It's hard to believe there are enough suckers for Uber to pull off a successful IPO. However it looks like this is a real possibility. But make no mistake, the IPO has nothing to do with setting up a framework to make Uber into a profitable company, it's the investors trying to dump this turd on naive suckers and cashing out.
> 
> So let's say they pull off the IPO, then what happens? At that point the investor spigot is turned off. Yes, they'll have billions of dollars but they'll also have to open their books and try to become profitable, and that's not possible without at least doubling fares. However, when you double fares you lose half your customers. The Uber business model is unworkable and Uber knows it, all they care about now is cashing out so they can leave others holding the bag.


I got one word for you: short!, short!, short!, short!


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> Hopefully a non criminal enterprise takes it over.


You mean like a Wall Street investment bank ? LOL !!


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

__
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/a5hvti

Great thread on Reddit about the Uber IPO......worth the 25 minute read.


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## Trebor (Apr 22, 2015)

Single Malt said:


> It's hard to believe there are enough suckers for Uber to pull off a successful IPO. However it looks like this is a real possibility. But make no mistake, the IPO has nothing to do with setting up a framework to make Uber into a profitable company, it's the investors trying to dump this turd on naive suckers and cashing out.
> 
> So let's say they pull off the IPO, then what happens? At that point the investor spigot is turned off. Yes, they'll have billions of dollars but they'll also have to open their books and try to become profitable, and that's not possible without at least doubling fares. However, when you double fares you lose half your customers. The Uber business model is unworkable and Uber knows it, all they care about now is cashing out so they can leave others holding the bag.


Uber really has you brainwashed.

"When you double fares, you lose half your customers"

When I started, 4 years ago, rates were 2.4x higher in my city.

Riders, always loved the fact that Uber was so much better and cheaper than a taxi.

Uber advertised they were 45% cheaper than our main cab company, yellow cab.

Everyone was happy.

The reason we have more customers today? No, not because of the rates, but because like any other company, it takes time to grow.

Will we lose a few if fares doubled overnight? Yes. But those few, are going to be the b.s. rides we all complain about anyways. So not really a loss.



ANT 7 said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/a5hvti
> 
> Great thread on Reddit about the Uber IPO......worth the 25 minute read.


I quit reading this after the first post

"Uber is doing an IPO in part so they can fund Uber Elevate, their urban mobility concept that is risky in that it has a very low chance of success and a high chance of costing Uber way more money than they even realize. Ride hailing using other people's cars is easy, aviation using your own fleet of electric-powered VTOL aircraft (which, by the way, don't exist yet) is hard."

Uber knows its a failure, just like their branch into self driving cars.

So why do they do it?

Research money isn't taxed. Look at general electric, they hardly pay any in taxes because it all goes back into research. Uber is very good at tax evading. No one has called them out yet. Unfortunately, the first ones to go down will be us, the drivers who end up not paying taxes because of the mileage being so low.

These guys on that reddit post, much like myself have no idea what they are talking about when it comes to investing.


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

Trebor said:


> The reason we have more customers today? No, not because of the rates, but because like any other company, it takes time to grow.


Nonsense. The only reason Uber was able to grow as fast as they did was due to investor subsidies and bureaucrats being paid off. Once investors parachute out, Uber has no comparative advantage. You will see a lot of rideshare companies entering the market once Uber and Lyft are forced to charge full fare.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Trebor said:


> Uber really has you brainwashed.
> 
> "When you double fares, you lose half your customers"
> 
> ...


Yeah that Uber Elevate thing is ridiculous. First of all flying cars do not exist. The closest we have are planes and helicopters.

We have cars, and assisting self driving cars and that technology is not even practical today so flying cars are 50 years away at least and a taxi app company will not be the one to bring it into the market, Uber will be out of business by then.

We will put a human on Mars before flying cars. And putting a person in a spaceship for a few years and taking all the air water and food and waste they need is decades away itself.


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## Beepbeep41 (Apr 25, 2017)

Uber will hang the carrot of driverless cars in front of investors.... we all know it won’t be driverless cars but autonomous drones that will be the big step. But most investors can’t see the jetsons (autonomous drones) as reality so Uber hangs the car thing in front of them....

I imagine it will be Bitcoin all over again...


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

In Sao Paulo, Brasil, I have used the helicopter taxi services a couple of times. These are smaller, low maintenance, simple choppers of which 700 make up the sum total of the various fleets in daily service of the largest heli-taxi city in the world. Look up for a second and imagine the potential of 700 choppers buzzing around your city and read on.

It's currently $150 USD for a 15 minute trip........................aaaannndddd, Uber wants Elevate to cost the same a car trip ? Tell me that there is something which an industry that has been around for decades doesn't already know and that Uber suddenly does ?

Just for starters, overcoming basic aerodynamics with a platform that needs to haul 4-5 200+ pound people around to satisfy the numbers in their cost base seems to be a weeee little problem IMHO.....ROFL !!


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## Beepbeep41 (Apr 25, 2017)

Electric Quad Coptors made in Afghanistan.


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## Nats121 (Jul 19, 2017)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Since there is an unending supply of drivers and newbies signing up.


The "unending supply" is due to the perpetually high number of Third World immigrants who continue to sign up despite the bad pay.


UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> History shows past fare reductions 1. drivers squawked, but 2. continued to drive and sign up.


Drivers don't merely squawk, 96% of them QUIT every year.

Uber's been able to survive losing 96% of their drivers because of the immigrant signups I referred to above.


UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> I suspect uber will Keep Fares Low for passengers
> And TAKE more from drivers


With Upfront Pricing and sky high booking fees, uber's taking MORE from the pax.

With the loss of surge pay and the latest pay cuts, uber's taking MORE from the drivers as well.


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## JaredJ (Aug 7, 2015)

The recent surge change is part of Uber's plan. That plan is in action right now prior to IPO so they can show a good 1st quarter earning in 2019. Old surge, we got it all. New surge, Uber takes 75% of the surge amount. New surge happens more often and longer.
No one actually believed when they told us the surge was to last longer and occur more frequently it was really to our benefit?

They have a surplus of drivers. They always want more customers. They pay the drivers bare minimum. They take more of what was earned.

Look at your surge fare details. It's all there. This is not a pro-worker company. It needs to be regulated.

I can't tell you how many of my passengers are shocked that I speak English, and have a decent car. Uber is slummin' it, and so are the drivers.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Trebor said:


> \]


The rates are not a problem, if they were 99.9% of drivers would quit instead of only 96%.

The problems is that Uber is cheating the driver and not paying them 75% of the fare. and they still drive so the fares are nothing.

If you sit at an airport for three hours waiting for a fare that's insanity, and it happens all the time.

Fool you once shame on Uber
Fool you twice, shame on you


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## Single Malt (Nov 11, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> The rates are not a problem, if they were 99.9% of drivers would quit instead of only 96%.
> 
> The problems is that Uber is cheating the driver and not paying them 75% of the fare. and they still drive so the fares are nothing.
> 
> ...


Rates are a disaster for anyone trying to run a profitable company, but that's not what Uber is trying to do. All they care about now is offloading this turd onto enough clueless suckers with poor math skills via an IPO.


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## NOXDriver (Aug 12, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> A public corporation is required by it's stock holders to turn a profit.


No, they are not. They are required to NOT do dumb things, but not specifically 'profit'. Look at Amazon. 10+ years of never making a profit.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

NOXDriver said:


> No, they are not. They are required to NOT do dumb things, but not specifically 'profit'. Look at Amazon. 10+ years of never making a profit.


They are required to try. If they fail the majority stockholders can burn through executive officers like gasoline.


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## ANT 7 (Oct 14, 2018)

No, they are not required to do anything. There is no law per say that says a public company must try to make money. People go into business to make money obviously, but profitability is not legally mandated.

In "Kanaduh" the CRA (our IRS) will come after you if you do not demonstrate profitability or a reasonable chance thereof after a certain period of time however. The man wants their taxes after all.


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## Beekeeper (Apr 10, 2017)

Wait a few months and maybe buy in long term after the price tanks. Same happened with FACEBOOK IPO. 

An alternative investment is IOTA. Savvy?


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