# How long till uber goes driverless



## Mordred (Feb 3, 2018)

Is it one year, two years, three years?


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## whiskeyboat (Oct 14, 2017)

I think it will be a long time because the big cost advantage for uber is that drivers provide the cars. Buying and maintaining a fleet of driverless cars will cost much more than paying drivers. The only thing that may counter that is that insuring the driverless cars may cost a lot less, in that case this gig is over. The future is unwritten.


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## Cableguynoe (Feb 14, 2017)

Mordred said:


> Is it one year, two years, three years?


27 months


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

a long long time.


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## RedANT (Aug 9, 2016)

A very long time. 

Uber loses billions of dollars when drivers almost exclusively absorb all of the operating expenses. Do you really think that they can turn a profit when they're responsible for those costs?

A base Volvo XC90 runs what, about $50k? Equipped with "self driving" package I'd guess the cost of vehicles would be close to $100k. Blended gas mileage would be approx 25 mpg, (current 22/29) and those cars would probably be driving 24/7/365. 1.5k miles a week/75k a year, those cars would probably have a service life of no more than 2-3 years. (Vehicle purchase costs of ~$33k per year, or $2,750 /mo, plus ~$800 /mo for gas) 

Uber's self driving cars would probably cost them ~$3,500 /mo just to break even, and that's not even considering insurance costs, etc. How much of a profit do you think these cars will turn? 

Absent drastic rate increases, I don't see any way that Uber will ever be able to survive based on their current business model. Self driving cars aren't the future, they're simply the next step towards absolute failure and bankruptcy.


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

Cableguynoe said:


> 27 months


37 Months, 8 Days, 5 Hours, 29 Minutes, 41 Seconds.

Give or take a few months.


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## Blatherskite (Nov 30, 2016)

They will obviously go driverless right after they declare insolvency, probably just a few years before the maturation of self driving car technology.


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## gofry (Oct 20, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> a long long time.


Yes, this. It will be 40 years+

It's in the news because all the car and tech companies love the PR sound bytes about "investing in tomorrow" that make them seem progressive. Meanwhile, they pump out big SUVs and trucks that keep them afloat.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Within 2 years, probably within 1, for introduction.

It won't be their technology.



whiskeyboat said:


> I think it will be a long time because the big cost advantage for uber is that drivers provide the cars. Buying and maintaining a fleet of driverless cars will cost much more than paying drivers.


This is an erroneous argument. They already pay for a fleet, they just don't own it. In the future they may also pay for a fleet of SDCs they don't own. Auto companies will almost certainly continue to partner with Uber in this ultra-competitive field.


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## RedANT (Aug 9, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> They already pay for a fleet, they just don't own it. In the future they may also pay for a fleet of SDCs they don't own. Auto companies will almost certainly continue to partner with Uber in this ultra-competitive field.


They don't own anything except shit software and empty promises.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

RedANT said:


> Uber loses billions of dollars when drivers almost exclusively absorb all of the operating expenses. Do you really think that they can turn a profit when they're responsible for those costs?


I don't absorb a dime in operating expenses. It all comes from my fares before profit. So does yours.



RedANT said:


> A base Volvo XC90 runs what, about $50k? Equipped with "self driving" package I'd guess the cost of vehicles would be close to $100k. Blended gas mileage would be approx 25 mpg, (current 22/29) and those cars would probably be driving 24/7/365. 1.5k miles a week/75k a year, those cars would probably have a service life of no more than 2-3 years. (Vehicle purchase costs of ~$33k per year, or $2,750 /mo, plus ~$800 /mo for gas)


Ahh man, no. First of all, Uber will probably not even own the fleet. Even if they did, they would get a huge discount on retail. With fleet maintenance, costs go down way further. Also, a SDC package will cost about $5K to add to a car, not $50K.

As for the life of the car, they will not drive 24/7/365. That's silly. In the long run, they will be electric, driving maintenance costs into the ground.



RedANT said:


> Uber's self driving cars would probably cost them ~$3,500 /mo just to break even, and that's not even considering insurance costs, etc. How much of a profit do you think these cars will turn?


Not even close. Insurance costs on a car that never causes an accident? Come on dude, think. They'll probably self-insure it would be so low. Tesla is already discussing throwing insurance in with any SDC.



RedANT said:


> Absent drastic rate increases, I don't see any way that Uber will ever be able to survive based on their current business model. Self driving cars aren't the future, they're simply the next step towards absolute failure and bankruptcy.


LOL. Dude. Start with saving 75%-80% and work from there.


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## RedANT (Aug 9, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> I don't absorb a dime in operating expenses. It all comes from my fares before profit. So does yours.


If it comes from my fares, I am paying for it.



> Ahh man, no. First of all, Uber will probably not even own the fleet. Even if they did, they would get a huge discount on retail. With fleet maintenance, costs go down way further. Also, a SDC package will cost about $5K to add to a car, not $50K.


https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/20/16678578/uber-volvo-xc90-suv-driverless-cars 
They will own the fleet of XC90's. The agreement has already been made. (And if you think a self driving car package that mindless millennials will pay thousands for because of their phone addiction will only be $5k, you're lying to yourself)



> As for the life of the car, they will not drive 24/7/365. That's silly. In the long run, they will be electric, driving maintenance costs into the ground.


 Between runs I find places to park so conserve fuel. Self driving cars won't be able to do the same. They'll just stay on the road, burning gas, until they get another run. Will those cars be electric? Unless XC90 specs change from 22/29 to electric in the next 2-4 years, that isn't going to happen either.



> Not even close. Insurance costs on a car that never causes an accident? Come on dude, think. They'll probably self-insure it would be so low. Tesla is already discussing throwing insurance in with any SDC.


 Do you really think that states and municipalities, as well as the insurance industry, will allow untested technology to ferry human passengers without stupidly high insurance costs?









Self driving cars are as much the future as Google Glass was.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

RedANT said:


> They don't own anything except shit software and empty promises.


But they DO pay for the fleet. And at WAY higher costs than an economy of scale fleet would cost.

They also own market share which is the Holy Grail of business. Uber is a verb. Uber is synonymous with rideshare.

You're drifting of course.

You are choosing to disbelieve that the largest undertaking by corporations in the history of mankind towards a single goal, a $14T market, is going to happen.

It IS going to happen.

It WILL.

It CAN'T be stopped.

Watch.



RedANT said:


> If it comes from my fares, I am paying for it.


It comes from the fare. Your car is paid for by the fare. The customer is ALWAYS the person who pays all costs.

You are not paying for your costs, Uber is charging the customer enough to pay for ALL costs, your profit, and their profit. Now deduct your profit and see where they make money.



RedANT said:


> https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/20/16678578/uber-volvo-xc90-suv-driverless-cars
> They will own the fleet of XC90's. The agreement has already been made. (And if you think a self driving car package that mindless millennials will pay thousands for because of their phone addiction will only be $5k, you're lying to yourself)


Uhhh... God. Yes, the SDC package will cost about $5,000 added on to the price of the car for TNC SDCs. Mostly only Tesla is even talking about selling cars to the public. The rest are coming for your job. TNC SDCs are here and live and have been since May 2016. Welcome to your new reality.



RedANT said:


> Between runs I find places to park so conserve fuel. Self driving cars won't be able to do the same. They'll just stay on the road, burning gas, until they get another run. Will those cars be electric? Unless XC90 specs change from 22/29 to electric in the next 2-4 years, that isn't going to happen either.


You are looking at prototypes and extrapolating.

This is going to fail you.

Yes, they will park (and charge if needed) between rides. Why wouldn't they?

Seriously, you need to think outside of the box. The future is already here.



RedANT said:


> Self driving cars are as much the future as Google Glass was.


Did you mean Google Glasses? From 2013? A prototype beta test? You can't be serious.

SDCs have been in use since May 2016. Zero crashes. $14T market. Largest undertaking by corporations in the history of mankind.

That's like saying self-landing rockets will never work because your bottle rocket crashed.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Largest undertaking by corporations in the history of mankind.
> 
> d.


LOLOLOL as measured by what?! I love ramz and his ridiculous hyperbolic statements.

for those who don't know, though i suspect most do by now, ramz has NO background in this industry and no training or expertise whatsoever. he's an old man who installs/installed sprinkler systems in people's yards. He is in no way an authority on this subject whatsoever.


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## RedANT (Aug 9, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> But they DO pay for the fleet. And at WAY higher costs than an economy of scale fleet would cost.


The closest they have to a fleet is their handful of test vehicles.



> They also own market share which is the Holy Grail of business. Uber is a verb. Uber is synonymous with rideshare.


"Market share" means nothing if yo have nothing to back it up with besides empty promises and false claims.



> It IS going to happen.
> 
> It WILL.
> 
> ...












I have stuff to do, but I'll complete my response in a couple of hours.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Within 2 years, probably within 1, for introduction.
> 
> It won't be their technology.
> 
> This is an erroneous argument. They already pay for a fleet, they just don't own it. In the future they may also pay for a fleet of SDCs they don't own. Auto companies will almost certainly continue to partner with Uber in this ultra-competitive field.


I've said this many times on this forum, but I found a quote from a person richer and smarter than me who said the same exact thing:

"Those who think fully self-driving vehicles will be ubiquitous on city streets months from now or even in a few years are not well connected to the state of the art or committed to the safe deployment of the technology."

-Bryan Salesky, CEO of Argo AI - a well-funded self-driving startup based near Uber in Pittsburgh


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## 25rides7daysaweek (Nov 20, 2017)

We may be self piloting our own vehicles like the jetsons before Americans give up owning and driving theyre own cars. They cant even make a computer or a phone that doesnt need to be rebooted, doesnt get a virus or get hacked...


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Mordred said:


> Is it one year, two years, three years?


Years. They are going to be testing them in San Diego ( though I'm not sure that it is Uber ). I talked to a real estate developer, and she told me that the huge complex they are working on will have driverless cars being tested there, somewhere in Chula Vista.

That's another community. there will be more, and maybe someday, they will release them everywhere, but they will need to have warehouses, technicians, and a whole support structure built right along side it, we're talkin' a long long time in the future. So, it begs the question, can they continue to hemorage money liek they are until SDCs take them to the promised land?

I have my doubts.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

autono-world said:


> It will depend on when Uber can reach the SAE's level of at least 3 (autonomous driving capable) and when the transportation authority will approve to operate in the society.


Uber has shown they are barely capable of running a business where they contract out the responsibility of insuring and maintaining a car to the driver. You think they can run a fleet? Laughable.


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## Wrb06wrx (Sep 20, 2017)

Listen im not saying SDC arent coming

but its not coming next year.... have you ever driven in manhattan during the day? SDC will get crushed they cannot anticipate the rediculous and erratic moves of the human drivers that go on there....

i dont care about your stupid algorithm bs drive in manhattan and im sure a few other major metropolitan areas have the same problem.... 

That said they are coming im gonna say theyre at least 5 years out before you begin to see them commonly theyre testing them yes because the bugs arent worked out 

my day job is in manufacturing do you know how long it took airbus to get the a380 made? And they are a legit manufacturer with real engineers supply chain management in place and many years of experience uber is some half assed not profitable hack job of a transportation company you really think they are gonna be able to pull it off before bankruptcy?

Maybe perhaps but we dont know for sure the inevitable is going to happen because millenials dont like to do anything themselves leave it all to technology they say which will ultimately be their demise but hopefully ill be dead by then...


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> LOLOLOL as measured by what?! I love ramz and his ridiculous hyperbolic statements.
> 
> for those who don't know, though i suspect most do by now, ramz has NO background in this industry and no training or expertise whatsoever. he's an old man who installs/installed sprinkler systems in people's yards. He is in no way an authority on this subject whatsoever.


By what measure? Pick one.

Your childishness is telling.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

oh silly ramz. god i really hope you aren't banking your retirement on this silly fantasy. you're obviously already cash strapped since you're driving boober.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RedANT said:


> A very long time.
> 
> Uber loses billions of dollars when drivers almost exclusively absorb all of the operating expenses. Do you really think that they can turn a profit when they're responsible for those costs?
> 
> ...


Remember- uber will SAY they are moving towards driverless all day long. They will even R&D it

All this to appease their investors who are losing patience.

But when it comes to actually running the business of maintaining a fleet (robot or no robot), they have simply proven they are incapable of handling such responsibilities.

Sorry to disappoint all the robot fanboys out there...


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

heynow321 said:


> a long long time.


Uber will not be around a long time. It's new owners will sail in the first opportunity of a fire sale (post Google court case?).

Cashed up and ready, methinks Apple will strike


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## muddygrimes (Aug 30, 2017)

My answer for OP.

Completely driverless? Never

10-15% of rides driverless? Perhaps in 5 years or more if ever.

Way way to many variables still exist IMO that will keep self driving vehicles from ever fully replacing human driven cars.

I think it's a fools game on Uber part to be honest 

You can rarely find a public restroom in this country that hasn't been vandalized. I can't imagine what is going to happen inside SDC. 

How many times will seats be cut open, liquids spilled, and the cars having to be sent "home" for repair.

Every driver every day can probably encounters a "instance" that a driverless cars will just not be able to handle as customer friendly or as efficient as a human operator.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> oh silly ramz. god i really hope you aren't banking your retirement on this silly fantasy. you're obviously already cash strapped since you're driving boober.


Sold my business, am already semi-retired. How about you?

We should talk investments.


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## RedANT (Aug 9, 2016)

Yes! Let's talk investments! You sound like a smart fellow. Please teach us about investments. 

(Please go slow, though. My Series 7 and Series 63 are lapsed)


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

RedANT said:


> Yes! Let's talk investments! You sound like a smart fellow. Please teach us about investments.
> 
> (Please go slow, though. My Series 7 and Series 63 are lapsed)


I meant that as a realistic alternative to pretending automation isn't going to take over.

We can all take a realistic point of view, invest, and profit from a market change.

I CRUSHED the housing collapse. Lost my business and still invested wisely and ended up ahead.

Every change has it's winners. Bet on the winners or just live in denial until you're gone.

Rideshare drivers are fine today. In 5 years, they will be piranhas, in 7, they won't exist in urban areas.

Eventually, all human driving will be gone other than for sport.

This is the beginning of the end. Anyone thinking that TNC driving is going to sustain them, are lying to themselves. It's just a matter of market and time.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Sold my business, am already semi-retired. How about you?
> 
> We should talk investments.


lol I'm not talking about the markets with a sprinkler system install-man


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> lol I'm not talking about the markets with a sprinkler system install-man


You don't even seem to grasp that your shallow efforts to demean what I accomplished falls on deaf ears.

I might ask the admins to change my username to Sprinkler Man just to troll you forever.

You have no knowledge of this field and I would bet every dime I have, you couldn't do what I did, much less what I do today.

Of course you won't talk about the markets. You have no idea about the markets. You're wondering what this used 5 gallon paint bucket might fetch in a yard sale.

"No, cooter, it ain't worth a dolla."

Grow a mind. They do wonders.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

LOL ramz I have a finance degree from Seattle university. I started boobering while attending. Your incredible tunnel vision and inability to provide any sort of evidence to back up your points as well as rampant use of straw men make engaging you in any meaningful manner a complete waste of time. Everyone here knows it which is why you’re a walking (posting?) punchline.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> LOL ramz I have a finance degree from Seattle university. I started boobering while attending. Your incredible tunnel vision and inability to provide any sort of evidence to back up your points as well as rampant use of straw men make engaging you in any meaningful manner a complete waste of time. Everyone here knows it which is why you're a walking (posting?) punchline.


You should demand a refund.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> You should demand a refund.


i'll let you know when i need a sprinkler installed or my lawn cut. can your back still handle that kind of work?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> i'll let you know when i need a sprinkler installed or my lawn cut. can your back still handle that kind of work?


Seriously dude, just let them read your posts and they will probably insist on refunding you and demand you never mention them again.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Seriously dude, just let them read your posts and they will probably insist on refunding you and demand you never mention them again.


Dude I'm serious, I need some lawn work done. I've shopped around and everyone says you're the best!


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## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

7 to 10 years for total no human drivers in the USA depending on how fast they can build the cars. 5,8,15,21,40,45,50,50,75,80 thousand of self drivin cars built per year. Then they will need to build on average 18 thousand cars a year for replacements.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> Dude I'm serious, I need some lawn work done. I've shopped around and everyone says you're the best!


You heard right, kinda. I've never done lawns or sprinklers, but if I had, I would be exceptionally good at it. It's my nature.

Now, go get that refund you so obviously deserve. Let me know if I can help by quoting you.



Mole said:


> 7 to 10 years for total no human drivers in the USA depending on how fast they can build the cars. 5,8,15,21,40,45,50,50,75,80 thousand of self drivin cars built per year. Then they will need to build on average 18 thousand cars a year for replacements.


No human drivers in that time frame is a bold prediction.

For Uber drivers though, the target of almost every major auto and tech company in the world, IIRC, GM alone can produce more cars per year than there are Uber drivers in the US.

Human driving may take much longer to replace because there isn't a financial incentive like TNC, but human driven TNC is most definitely at the beginning of the end. Almost a year ago I predicted 6-7 years and now I think that was overly cautious. Waymo is crushing expectations.


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## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> You heard right, kinda. I've never done lawns or sprinklers, but if I had, I would be exceptionally good at it. It's my nature.
> 
> Now, go get that refund you so obviously deserve. Let me know if I can help by quoting you.
> 
> ...


You make some good points and I think it will take 3 to 5 years to be able to mass produce self driving cars and they will need a big chunk of change to buy them. For a similar comparison just look how phones have changed in the last 7 to 10 years.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> You heard right, kinda. I've never done lawns or sprinklers, but if I had, I would be exceptionally good at it. It's my nature.
> 
> Now, go get that refund you so obviously deserve. Let me know if I can help by quoting you.
> s.


lol your nature is to be good at things? I mean, I guess if you exclude accepted debate tactics (those used by adults, not the ones you, tomato, and other teenagers use), teaching your kids how to drive, and a general understanding of humans, then yeah you're really good at things!

Now I noticed my neighbor the other day fussing around with a sprinkler head in his backyard. would you like me to refer you to him?


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## muddygrimes (Aug 30, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> Human driving may take much longer to replace because there isn't a financial incentive like TNC, but human driven TNC is most definitely at the beginning of the end. Almost a year ago I predicted 6-7 years and now I think that was overly cautious. Waymo is crushing expectations.


Agree the supply end of SD cars will be easily solved. The logistics side of things is what is going to keep human TNC drivers around.

Where do you park those SDC, where do you gas them up, ( not to mention plug them in for electric models) how will in ride vandalism be handled, lost items,

Uber will have to retrain passenger behavior imo as well,


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## getawaycar (Jul 10, 2017)

The self-driving fantasy is a nice way to take investors' attention away from the fact that the company is a bottomless money pit. You gotta dazzle them with hype and BS in order to keep the gravy train going. Their money is the only thing keeping the company afloat.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

getawaycar said:


> The self-driving fantasy is a nice way to take investors' attention away from the fact that the company is a bottomless money pit. You gotta dazzle them with hype and BS in order to keep the gravy train going. Their money is the only thing keeping the company afloat.


hmmm where have we seen that before? oh right, 1999.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

muddygrimes said:


> Agree the supply end of SD cars will be easily solved. The logistics side of things is what is going to keep human TNC drivers around.
> 
> Where do you park those SDC, where do you gas them up, ( not to mention plug them in for electric models) how will in ride vandalism be handled, lost items,
> 
> Uber will have to retrain passenger behavior imo as well,


You park them in uncongested cheap areas. We should be buying up abandoned warehouses and converting them into SDC parking, maintenance, and fueling lots. Eventually you'll be bought out of your lucrative contract and position.

Solving vandalism and lost items is amazingly simple and profitable. The more they vandalise or lose items, the more profit. SDCs will be sad the day that gravy train ends.


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## tcaud (Jul 28, 2017)

If they do do the driverless thing, that will be their moment of vulnerability. Roll out a new app a couple days afterward and rack up a million downloads on Google Play and iTunes. City-wide, local rideshare alliances. Lower cost than Uber but drivers making more money  Only an idiot would drive in a self-driving car.


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