# My prediction for Uber



## 7Miles (Dec 17, 2014)

Earlier this year I stopped driving for Uber except surges and cases where Lyft takes me in some very rural area I wanna get out of. I also predicted that more drivers would sign up for Lyft and make life harder for Uber with all those price decreases they left drivers hanging with. I was right! In my area there are lots Lyft drivers now.
My new prediction - lots of surges in 3 months. 
You see, Uber was very successful in getting lots of customers. However, with latest SRF increase ($1.75 in my area), many short rides leave drivers with $2.50 or approximately only 50% of fare.
I know, there are still thosewho would drive for Uber anyways, but even they can't argue with law of physics. Cars break down, need repares . Well, the first ones to go will be expensive cars. Owners of those cars will drastically reduce driving time and look for other income options.
That leaves us with people like me (new, but cheap $14000) cars and people with old cars. With nice cars gone from UberX, expect surges in daytime . 
Another prediction- a year to 6 month from now Uber will be back to original 20% cut with no stupid fees and $1.25 per mile. Tips will be added in the app.
They just tried to fix something that was not broke , it worked just fine before. In the process though, they made Lyft a very strong competitor and very unhappy drivers.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

Bold predictions, indeed.

It could happen once Uber has reached market saturation and ridership has grown enough for them to make a profit.


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## jetboatjohnny (Jan 21, 2015)

Things have changed for sure. I started out in Palm Springs and the rates were $2/mile $3.50+$1srf to start w/$6 min fare I would make an easy $200+/night (Fri-Sat) in 7-8 hrs usually 20+ rides and non-stop action after midnight, only a dozen cars downtown. Summer came (2014) and then weekends in OC. Since December I can work from home and get a lot of long rides, IE rates were 1.25/mile .29/minute and now $2.45 srf and $5.45 minimum $1.10/mile $.21 minute w/$1 start I still rarely get a min fare out here. Now I work 7 days/week instead of 2 or 3 but don't have to go anywhere to make money.
Labor Day I stayed in Newport Beach and played the surges all weekend.


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## JTull (Oct 15, 2015)

Uber ownership will want to maximize the profit margins prior to going public, I think they leave the commission as high as possible with maintaining drivers, the churn rate doesn't bother them as long as they have sufficient demand from people to be "partners" to replace people that quit. I predict that once they find the minimum take home pay that drivers can tolerate the rates will go up with corresponding commissions, i.e. (Drivers make same low wage, pax pays more, profit margins go up) if I owned a company I would do the same thing. Drop rates as low as possible right now to gain market share, once competition is elimated raise the rates. 

If Lyft and other rideshareing companies manage to stick around and compete with Uber it will be great for the consumers but bad for the drivers and companies ability to maximize profits.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

Twitter was losing money when they went public. Investors were practically fighting each other to buy shares. Nearly two years later they've figured out how to lose money even faster than before.


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## RockinEZ (Apr 29, 2015)

Amazon.... need I say more?


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

RockinEZ said:


> Amazon.... need I say more?


Amazon is a bit different. They make tons of money, but they have been reinvesting it in infrastructure (warehouses and data centers), and new technologies and services, so their net is a break-even at best. They can do this because they have a high cash turnover (i.e. their money is working hard at bringing in even more money at a fast pace).


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## RockinEZ (Apr 29, 2015)

volksie said:


> The L.A. Times quotes experts today saying: "Uber's true valuation is $23.4 Billion", NOT $70 Billion!
> My prediction was $25 Billion 9 days ago!
> What do you think?


Go into Finance. You have a future.


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## itsablackmarket (May 12, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> Twitter was losing money when they went public. Investors were practically fighting each other to buy shares. Nearly two years later they've figured out how to lose money even faster than before.


losers are the new winners.


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## Einstein (Oct 10, 2015)

volksie said:


> The L.A. Times today said: "Uber's true valuation is $23.4 Billion", NOT $70 Billion! What do you think?


I think $23 Billion is way too high!


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## RockinEZ (Apr 29, 2015)

itsablackmarket said:


> losers are the new winners.


LOL!


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## RGary (Sep 27, 2015)

Uber will keep lowering fares and all they will end up with are the bottom feeders for drivers. Folks of the same ilk that Uber was supposedly created to combat. Everyone that I know in my area, with a decent looking car, has lowered their Uber time due to the drop in our fares. Some have quit altogether. You can't operate nice cars when you make no money.


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## vesolehome (Aug 2, 2015)

I think Uber will implode. Once Lyft gets their infrastructure in order, more drivers will drive for them. This will split time and rides making Uber lose hours. Surge increase = unhappy riders. 

I've been saying Ubers greed will leave them with the less desirable drivers. 

It's a house of cards with their greed in the way.


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## BaitNSwitch (May 12, 2015)

But Lyft has the same issue Uber has. Say Uber drivers switch over to Lyft, it will be saturated and there won't be enough rides to go around. The people heading the ships are testing to see the lowest fare drivers will tolerate before they quit, then raise rates accordingly. It's not evil, it's smart business.


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## vesolehome (Aug 2, 2015)

BaitNSwitch said:


> But Lyft has the same issue Uber has. Say Uber drivers switch over to Lyft, it will be saturated and there won't be enough rides to go around. The people heading the ships are testing to see the lowest fare drivers will tolerate before they quit, then raise rates accordingly. It's not evil, it's smart business.


But As Lyft grows, riders will have a choice. Price will matter to them. Uber is not running a good business for what they're business is. of they end up with the bottom battel drivers riders won't want them.


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## Old Rocker (Aug 20, 2015)

Uber is trying to saturate and corner the global market before rivals can get off the ground. The recent increases in the SRF and commissions for new drivers are to support their expansion, particularly into China. So, yes, we are paying Uber so they have cash to support their massive money losing operations in China.

They are afraid that if any other company gets the upper hand in a major country, that company will have the infrastructure to challenge Uber in the US.

Since there is very little to differentiate one rideshare company from any other, the only thing they have to compete on is price. This, of course, is bad news for drivers, with the only silver lining being that drivers will tend to drive for the rideshare company that pays the best - presuming that in 3-4 years, riders in every major city will have at least three choices for rideshare companies.


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## vesolehome (Aug 2, 2015)

Walmart and McDonald's were once the behemoth's in their respective fields. Look at both now. 
What's different in today's market is the consumer is much quicker to drop. There is no loyalty anymore. 
With that said, I see uber imploding here. They can't ever pay drivers more now that they've taken away. 
On Detroit where we are well uber $1 per mile, you hear the PAX telling stories is a better Uber day. They see the changes too. 
Sure, the drunk 22 year old won't care on a Saturday night. But the overall consumer will


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## black dynamite (Jul 11, 2015)

7Miles said:


> Earlier this year I stopped driving for Uber except surges and cases where Lyft takes me in some very rural area I wanna get out of. I also predicted that more drivers would sign up for Lyft and make life harder for Uber with all those price decreases they left drivers hanging with. I was right! In my area there are lots Lyft drivers now.
> My new prediction - lots of surges in 3 months.
> You see, Uber was very successful in getting lots of customers. However, with latest SRF increase ($1.75 in my area), many short rides leave drivers with $2.50 or approximately only 50% of fare.
> I know, there are still thosewho would drive for Uber anyways, but even they can't argue with law of physics. Cars break down, need repares . Well, the first ones to go will be expensive cars. Owners of those cars will drastically reduce driving time and look for other income options.
> ...


Here's my bold prediction! A year from now I'll have a better job making more money than I'm earning now and I'll tell UBER to STICK IT!!


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## Uberselectguy (Oct 16, 2015)

7Miles said:


> Earlier this year I stopped driving for Uber except surges and cases where Lyft takes me in some very rural area I wanna get out of. I also predicted that more drivers would sign up for Lyft and make life harder for Uber with all those price decreases they left drivers hanging with. I was right! In my area there are lots Lyft drivers now.
> My new prediction - lots of surges in 3 months.
> You see, Uber was very successful in getting lots of customers. However, with latest SRF increase ($1.75 in my area), many short rides leave drivers with $2.50 or approximately only 50% of fare.
> I know, there are still thosewho would drive for Uber anyways, but even they can't argue with law of physics. Cars break down, need repares . Well, the first ones to go will be expensive cars. Owners of those cars will drastically reduce driving time and look for other income options.
> ...


Surges are actually the number one consumer complaint of Uber, followed by drivers not being familiar with routes.

It is more than likely that SURGES will be the next thing trimmed, such as a 1.5 surge cap. Don't be surprised if it happens, especially in city centers. This explains why Uber has been saturating the markets with UberX drivers. Uber needs to get its corporate image cleaned up from a consumer standpoint.

So for all you drivers, get ready to bend over and take yet another shaft up the ......


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## vesolehome (Aug 2, 2015)

Even the poorest and Dim witted won't be able to drive in the negative for too long. Uber will implode


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## BaitNSwitch (May 12, 2015)

I voted for I don't care, not because I don't care. But because the answer choice is hilarious.\

Low maintenance spaceship indeed.


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## MiddleClassedOut (Jun 11, 2015)

Lyft already caps surge fares at 3x.

I swear I have seen 250% though, so maybe this is recent:

*CAPPED PRIME TIME*
Your costume should be scary, not the cost of your ride. That's why Lyft always caps Prime Time at 200%. When requests greatly outnumber available drivers, Prime Time turns on. Demand may not even push prices to 200% this Halloween, and Prime Time typically subsides within a few minutes. The cap is just there so you always have a safe, reliable ride during the city's busiest hours.


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## BaitNSwitch (May 12, 2015)

Tell Drivers: Watch out for Prime Time and Surge! you'll make life changing money
Tell Riders: Don't worry about surge, wait a few minutes and re-request, it will subside.


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## Steve Joseph (Oct 21, 2015)

Old Rocker said:


> Uber is trying to saturate and corner the global market before rivals can get off the ground. The recent increases in the SRF and commissions for new drivers are to support their expansion, particularly into China. So, yes, we are paying Uber so they have cash to support their massive money losing operations in China.
> 
> They are afraid that if any other company gets the upper hand in a major country, that company will have the infrastructure to challenge Uber in the US.
> 
> Since there is very little to differentiate one rideshare company from any other, the only thing they have to compete on is price. This, of course, is bad news for drivers, with the only silver lining being that drivers will tend to drive for the rideshare company that pays the best - presuming that in 3-4 years, riders in every major city will have at least three choices for rideshare companies.


http://techcrunch.com/2015/09/16/ub...t-form-international-ridesharing-partnership/

not sure if you saw this last month. It's probably here in the forum somewhere or you probably did.


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