# Driving to surge - calculating if worth it or not



## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

This post was inspired by a member of this forum who recently admitted to driving 25 miles to chase a surge, even _crossing a toll bridge_ to do so.  &#128561;. This member must remain anonymous; all I can say that her username rhymes with Mgang14.

Below is the method I use to calculate whether or not it's worth driving towards a surge. This post is not about regular surges that happen like clockwork at the same time every day in the same place. Early morning rush hour in certain neighbourhoods is a good example. It is about the impromptu, unexpected popup surges that appear seemingly ramdomly.

When you see the $5.00 or $6.00 of an impromptu surge that you were not expecting, you think, "Great! Extra money!". But hold on, before you saddle up and high tail it over there. What you are effectively doing with flat rate surge is exchanging your drive to the surge zone for a lottery chance to win whatever surge is on offer. What I do is compare the surge on offer to what Uber would pay me for driving a pax to the surge location. In San Francisco I get paid, in 20 mph traffic, about $1.60 per mile and $1.60 base. If I am 5 miles from a surge zone then I would expect to gross around $10 if I had pax on board, and the trip would take me 15 minutes.. If the surge on offer was $5, then I would be selling my 15 minute drive for just $5. Which makes zero sense.

And that's assuming that the surge does not disappear by the time I get there, which is a hugely unwise assumption. In the likely event that the surge did disappear just before I arrived then I would have sold my 15 minute drive for $0. In the above example it would clearly be much better to simply wait where I was for a nearby ping that will start to generate revenue straight away. With a nearby pax in the car, the revenue from that pax is certain. It is not a lottery chance at winning.

In order for me to drive to a surge, I require a premium of around 2x the equivalent pax-in-car earnings for any drive I make towards a surge to cover the risk of the surge disappearing. So, if a drive to surge would pay me $10 with pax on board as above, the surge I am driving towards would have to be $20 or higher. Needless to say, I don't drive towards many unexpected pop-up surges. And never, ever, pay a toll to try to get to a surge zone.


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## LADryver (Jun 6, 2017)

The Gift of Fish said:


> This post was inspired by a member of this forum who recently admitted to driving 25 miles to chase a surge, even _crossing a toll bridge_ to do so.  &#128561;. This member must remain anonymous; all I can say that her username rhymes with Mgang14.
> 
> Below is the method I use to calculate whether or not it's worth driving towards a surge. This post is not about regular surges that happen like clockwork at the same time every day in the same place. Early morning rush hour in certain neighbourhoods is a good example. It is about the impromptu, unexpected popup surges that appear seemingly ramdomly.
> 
> ...


Unexpected surges are usually because of an event. Instead of finding them when they happen why not check events in the area ahead of time? The drive anticipating may be worth it and you only need to be closer to it. Check where conventions, sports, theater and shopping areas are. Sometimes we get the info in the app so long as we know to convert Greenwich time to local.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

LADryver said:


> Unexpected surges are usually because of an event. Instead of finding them when they happen why not check events in the area ahead of time? The drive anticipating may be worth it and you only need to be closer to it. Check where conventions, sports, theater and shopping areas are. Sometimes we get the info in the app so long as we know to convert Greenwich time to local.


I avoid events - the shitshow of getting in, locating the pax and getting out isn't worth it. In any case, whether or not drivers choose to do them, my post isn't about surges that can be expected or anticipated such as events; it's about impromptu surges resultant from Uber's need to redistribute drivers as part of their business as usual operations.


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## LADryver (Jun 6, 2017)

The Gift of Fish said:


> I avoid events - the shitshow of getting in, locating the pax and getting out isn't worth it. In any case, whether or not drivers choose to do them, my post isn't about surges that can be expected or anticipated such as events; it's about impromptu surges resultant from Uber's need to redistribute drivers as part of their business as usual operations.


I believe these are being called " boosts". I will drive ten minutes to them but no more than that.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

LADryver said:


> I believe these are being called " boosts". I will drive ten minutes to them but no more than that.


There may be boosts still in some markets, however this thread is about surges.


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## OldBay (Apr 1, 2019)

New years day, I was heading east on i-50 from DC and there was a big $9 surge, in the middle of the day, in Bowie, MD.

Bowie is not exactly a hot spot, its half way between DC and annapolis, and I have no idea why there was a $9 surge. Probably because the local ants had found better eats.

Anyway, I had cruise control on 60mph and was making my way to the surge, was headed that direction anyway.

From behind I see a car screaming up i-50. It passed me like I was parked. It was a small/medium, older japanase sedan with an Uber sticker. That guy literally was going 100+ to get the surge.

And you now what? I got off the Bowie exit and I only got $1.50 before it disappeared. That crazy man who sped to the surge, probably got a piece of the $9.

Surge is definitely a first come, first serve. One of those mid-highway surges is bound to cause a death if it hasn't already.


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## Coachman (Sep 22, 2015)

I never chase a surge unless it's a) really close and b) in the general direction I want to head. I don't mind driving 2 or 3 minutes to pick up a $5 sticky.


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## Lando74 (Nov 23, 2014)

The only surges worth driving to are the ones which are explainable, predictable and have a good chance of producing one or more highly profitable rides. Outside of those parameters it's just a gamble.


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## freddieman (Oct 24, 2016)

Don’t chase surges unless u know there is some type of big event within the area. The surge u see see on the screen real time time is about 5 minute delay of whats really going on.


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## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

freddieman said:


> Don't chase surges unless u know there is some type of big event within the area. The surge u see see on the screen real time time is about 5 minute delay of whats really going on.


You can tell people til you're blue in the face and it's a wasted effort. Surge should be given a funeral because it's DEAD.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

I stopped chasing surges years ago. They usually disappear when you arrive.

Another thing happens when there's large surge: People tend to stop ordering Uber, they have learned that if you wait 10 minutes, the surge will be over. This led me to believe that the real reason Uber does surges, is not to increase revenue because of demand, but to slow down ordering, because it's better to slow the ordering than it is to get an order and not be able to serve it.


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## ColumbusRides (Nov 10, 2018)

You need to be in the right area and if you work smart, you'll know when surge kicks in and take advantage of it. Being in the right driving market, knowing times when surge normally kicks in makes a difference. Surge and promos are the only ways to do this hustle successfully. My market is hot, I know it very well. I only drive prime times.


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## Christinebitg (Jun 29, 2018)

I've said it a few other times, but it bears repeating. (My pet theory about surge)...

It's based on a shortage of available drivers, not on the demand for rides. That's why it evaporates right when you reach the edge of the surge.


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## Atom guy (Jul 27, 2016)

Oscar Levant said:


> I stopped chasing surges years ago. They usually disappear when you arrive.
> 
> Another thing happens when there's large surge: People tend to stop ordering Uber, they have learned that if you wait 10 minutes, the surge will be over. This led me to believe that the real reason Uber does surges, is not to increase revenue because of demand, but to slow down ordering, because it's better to slow the ordering than it is to get an order and not be able to serve it.


This is the exact intent of surge: to balance the ratio of available drivers to passenger demand. Surge will either bring in more drivers or scare off some passengers. The point of surge is to eliminate the surge.


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## Nate5Star (Dec 18, 2019)

I don't chase the surge. If I'm in it, I'll take it. today I was driving on the highway and found meself on the edge of a surge, in the middle of a surge, then on the other side of the same surge. I got pinged when all the surging disappeared from the screen, picked up the pax and when I got the payment information, there was the surge. Don't know how it happened. Don't care. But I aint giving it back. 

I also noticed a surge in an area today where I know there was gun play on Wednesday. You know I didn't chase it.


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## JaxUberLyft (Jan 9, 2019)

The other opportunity cost of chasing a surge (along with the time / cost of getting there plus the probability of it fading away) is that once you've collected your sticky, you are likely knocked out of being able to take a Lyft rider...so there's another potential loss in the form of that missed opportunity.

PPZ is kinda the same - while it counts up, I try to hide in a cluster of Lyft ants so that I DON'T get a ride request until it maxes out. After it maxes out, move away from the other ants to get the ride that redeems the PPZ...but chances are, if the PPZ you are holding is worthwhile, you won't take an Uber ride in the mean time = lost potential opportunity.


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## doyousensehumor (Apr 13, 2015)

Just like a lot of things, there's no always or never, it's "it depends"

Your Market may vary. It depends, but there are patterns to The Surge. Generally a $10 surge in my area is going to stick around for 10-15 minutes. And If you know your area for certain events, they're predictable. 

I don't chase Surge from far away, but if I'm already heading in that direction, I may do a slight change of my route so I pass through it.

Charlotte surge does hang along longer than the old style multiplier, at least in my market. And it's sticky.

Everybody seems to want an always or never answer to things. Sometimes it just depends.


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## Mkang14 (Jun 29, 2019)

Oh great. A gateway for all my haters to talk smack. Get a life losers &#128523;

@The Gift of Fish I was a little rusty but hey averaged $45 an hour that day (NYE). I mean for godsakes the ride landed me in walnut creek. I had to get out of there &#129315;. Sf was 25 miles away &#129335;‍♀.


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## doyousensehumor (Apr 13, 2015)

The Gift of Fish said:


> This member must remain anonymous; all I can say that her username rhymes with Mgang14.


No idea who you are talking about :whistling:


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## doyousensehumor (Apr 13, 2015)

Mkang14 said:


> @The Gift of Fish I was a little rusty but hey averages $45 an hour. I mean for godsakes the ride landed me in walnut creek. I had to get out of there &#129315;. Sf was 25 miles away


That makes sense. If I am in BFE, and I'm going to head back to my main driving area, I'm probably going to aim for a surge area. After all, I'm heading there anyway. I probably would have done the same thing.


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## Mkang14 (Jun 29, 2019)

Nate5Star said:


> I don't chase the surge. If I'm in it, I'll take it. today I was driving on the highway and found meself on the edge of a surge, in the middle of a surge, then on the other side of the same surge. I got pinged when all the surging disappeared from the screen, picked up the pax and when I got the payment information, there was the surge. Don't know how it happened. Don't care. But I aint giving it back.
> 
> I also noticed a surge in an area today where I know there was gun play on Wednesday. You know I didn't chase it.


I normally don't chase surge either. I've been driving since 2017. I was in a dead city (walnut creek), it was NYE/NYD and according to the map SF was in the red. It looked so pretty and bright, I was temporarily hypnotized &#129335;‍♀. I also thought I could get a bunch of rides quickly to satisfy my quest requirement.

Unfortunately the first ride I got in SF was 22 miles straight back to walnut creek &#129315;&#129318;‍♀


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