# When Will Uber Die?



## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?

There's only one save for Uber now, a successful IPO. Even so, the original investors will flee once their money is back in their hands.
So let's discuss this. Pretend you are a newly appointed board member on Uber Inc, a publically traded company.
What is your move to actually make profit?
(Raise prices raise prices...)
But then you lose ridership!

In case you weren't aware...public corporations are obligated to their stockholders to do ANYTHING LEGAL to make a profit.
To not do so is to lose stock price, fire CEOs and eventually liquidate holdings.
Discuss.


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## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

History repeats itself. Countless other companies had a popular product but no profit and not enough revenue behind it. (Facebook perfect example). An IPO will force Uber to get to revenue generation and profit within 2-3 years of going public under pressure from large investors.

How will they do it? Remains to be seen. Through artificially low rates Uber grew and has now generated substantial demand for their product. They have already hit the drivers pretty much as hard as they can. At a certain point rider rates will have to go up but that won't necessarily mean more money for drivers.

An IPO will generate an awful lot of money. Since drivers own the bulk of the assets for operating the company they don't have a whole lot to liquidate so the pressure to achieve profitability will be enormous. Without an IPO Uber is dead within 5 years. Can't lose money forever.

Raising rates is inevitable.

Will be interesting.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Seamus said:


> History repeats itself. Countless other companies had a popular product but no profit and not enough revenue behind it. (Facebook perfect example). An IPO will force Uber to get to revenue generation and profit within 2-3 years of going public under pressure from large investors.
> 
> How will they do it? Remains to be seen. Through artificially low rates Uber grew and has now generated substantial demand for their product. They have already hit the drivers pretty much as hard as they can. At a certain point rider rates will have to go up but that won't necessarily mean more money for drivers.
> 
> ...


2 years. If you look at all the VC garnered and that spent (I'll make it easy on you--Uber has lost 24 billion in 8 short years).
The money is gone. If the IPO is not a big hit, Uber will be MySpace by 2021.


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## UberEaters (Nov 15, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


Ubers IPO is gonna blow the **** up, especially once they get rid of all the useless drivers like me and replace us with robot cars


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## backstreets-trans (Aug 16, 2015)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


It really boogles my mind on how Uber can be losing so much money. With up front rates and the add on surge Uber is taking 40 oercent of most fares. I'm paying uber way more a day than I did the cab companies I use to work for. On top of this I pay for all car related costs.

Once an IPO comes out the financials will become public info. The number of accidents and lawsuits will stun investors. Ubers policy of hiring anybody and discarding the experienced drivers is backfiring. Rookie drivers have always been more prone to accidents than the seasoned professional. Ubers liability expenses probably run 10 times as high as a cab company with their driver churn and lack of training.

I look forward to seeing what they've wasted all these billions on. I just hope that don't get to fleece all the mom and pop small investors and workers pension funds to line their pockets.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

backstreets-trans said:


> It really boogles my mind on how Uber can be losing so much money. With up front rates and the add on surge Uber is taking 40 oercent of most fares. I'm paying uber way more a day than I did the cab companies I use to work for. On top of this I pay for all car related costs.
> 
> Once an IPO comes out the financials will become public info. The number of accidents and lawsuits will stun investors. Ubers policy of hiring anybody and discarding the experienced drivers is backfiring. Rookie drivers have always been more prone to accidents than the seasoned professional. Ubers liability expenses probably run 10 times as high as a cab company with their driver churn and lack of training.
> 
> I look forward to seeing what they've wasted all these billions on. I just hope that don't get to fleece all the mom and pop small investors and workers pension funds to line their pockets.


Great post sir. At one point, I did some maths (when Uber rented double their previous Manhattan office space) and came up with 2 to 3 million a year in Manhattan rent alone (not including greenlight hubs). To me, this kind of wastrel spending is indicative of how much of a money sieve Uber really is.

Reminded me of my one trip to San Francisco in the early Zeros. All these glass skyscrapers dedicated to domain name based dot Coms. I knew it was folly then, I know it's folly now.
You can gild a turd, it's still shit on the inside.


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## Pedro Paramo66 (Jan 17, 2018)

As long as exist desperate stupid creepy losers willing to drive for charity and donations
And as long as exist corrupt politicians willing to be bribed all this companies will be in business
Lol


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## kcdrvr15 (Jan 10, 2017)

I hope the former ceo and the current board end up in jail. Anyway, I plan on making bank over uber/lyft's demise.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Pedro Paramo66 said:


> As long as exist desperate stupid creepy losers willing to drive for charity and donations
> And as long as exist corrupt politicians willing to be bribed all this companies will be in business
> Lol


With what capital?
Recap: Uber loses 3 billion per year. 24 billion in capital has gone up in smoke.
NEXT!


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## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

backstreets-trans said:


> It really boogles my mind on how Uber can be losing so much money. With up front rates and the add on surge Uber is taking 40 oercent of most fares. I'm paying uber way more a day than I did the cab companies I use to work for. On top of this I pay for all car related costs.
> 
> Once an IPO comes out the financials will become public info. The number of accidents and lawsuits will stun investors. Ubers policy of hiring anybody and discarding the experienced drivers is backfiring. Rookie drivers have always been more prone to accidents than the seasoned professional. Ubers liability expenses probably run 10 times as high as a cab company with their driver churn and lack of training.
> 
> I look forward to seeing what they've wasted all these billions on. I just hope that don't get to fleece all the mom and pop small investors and workers pension funds to line their pockets.


They lose so much money because the business model is broken at it's core basis. Doesn't matter what % they take (it does to us) with artificially low rates its a loser. You can sell all of a product you want but if you don't make sufficient margin it's not going to matter financially.

It's not like they went after a very lucrative (financial profitability) market in the first place. Public transportation is a pig financially. Buses, trains, etc.etc. only survive based on subsidies. Take away government subsidies and AMTRAK is bankrupt. Very few municipal bus routes are self sustaining. Virtually all subsidized. Think abiout it, the Taxi industry was not a strong financial performer to begin with. Now undercut those rates and you create demand without profit.

I don't pretend to have the answers but I sincerely don't see it as lawsuits, waste or fraud, but rather a poor business model at it's core. The only way to make substantial financial improvements is to entirely change the business model.


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## Merc7186 (Jul 8, 2017)

Just be patient OP, they are doing a fine job taking themselves down without any help.


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## arcterus (Oct 31, 2014)

Once Uber has to show a path to profitability, they will raise their rates to very close to taxi rates. Within two weeks, Lyft will do the same.

There will be a mass public outcry of how unfair this is, as the public once again learns what the true cost is of a sustainable, profitable ride. Uber and Lyft will lose the bus crowd, which they never should have gone for in the first place.

The lean taxi companies will make something of a comeback, as taxis have several advantages that Uber and Lyft can never provide (having your own personal driver, a greater sense of an anonymity, making sure the good rides on the geographic fringes are taken care of, etc.).

If Google or Amazon want to, this will be the perfect time for them to establish a competitor service to Uber. They already have most of the infrastructure in place to handle it (maps, location data, etc.). They are not saddled with all the legal liabilities that Uber has. Google at least will certainly pay their drivers better than Uber.

If this happens, there is a good chance that Uber will go out of business. Even if it they don't, the transportation industry will find a new stasis, and things will return back to a somewhat changed normal. 

Taxis will still exist, rideshare will still exist, taxi drivers will be better paid than ride share drivers, and Life Will Go On.


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## Nats121 (Jul 19, 2017)

Seamus said:


> History repeats itself. Countless other companies had a popular product but no profit and not enough revenue behind it. (Facebook perfect example). An IPO will force Uber to get to revenue generation and profit within 2-3 years of going public under pressure from large investors.
> 
> How will they do it? Remains to be seen. Through artificially low rates Uber grew and has now generated substantial demand for their product. They have already hit the drivers pretty much as hard as they can. At a certain point rider rates will have to go up but that won't necessarily mean more money for drivers.
> 
> ...


Uber's massively large pax, Eats customer, and driver database has lots of value.

Their spying and data collection of their drivers, pax, and Eats customers is so extensive that they probably know more about us than our spouses do.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Nats121 said:


> Uber's massively large pax, Eats customer, and driver database has lots of value.
> 
> Their spying and data collection of their drivers, pax, and Eats customers is so extensive that they probably know more about us than our spouses do.


Correct. So when the bottom falls out, the fire sale should be lucrative.


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## BigBadJohn (Aug 31, 2018)

Uber losing money? How is that even possible. Next to no overhead, relatively few "employees" all property leased so massive tax write offs as they own nothing. What expenses do they really have other than a couple of computer programmers. The rest are nothing more than unpaid intetns. So how do they "lose" $3BB in a quarter? It's not lost. Just deposited into untraceable Swiss bank accounts and then laundered back into the pockets of the few in the ivory tower. What. I'm wrong?


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

BigBadJohn said:


> Uber losing money? How is that even possible. Next to no overhead, relatively few "employees" all property leased so massive tax write offs as they own nothing. What expenses do they really have other than a couple of computer programmers. The rest are nothing more than unpaid intetns. So how do they "lose" $3BB in a quarter? It's not lost. Just deposited into untraceable Swiss bank accounts and then laundered back into the pockets of the few in the ivory tower. What. I'm wrong?


Wrong. Massive overhead. Write-offs only work when you have profit to avoid paying taxes on.
You realize a 3 billion loss is an expense?
Possibly you do not.


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## BigBadJohn (Aug 31, 2018)

Only thing i realize is something doesn't add up. How or why is what no one knows. Maybe you know something we don't.


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

I was talking with my neighbor today about jobs and automation, and said, why now is it so appealing to be a faux cab driver? He said it best I think, there really aren't jobs the way the media is portraying. I live in Austin and the economy is super strong, yet there are so many people driving (do they all want to? Doubtful) Yes, there are a lot of jobs, but working at Mcdonalds and the like is not really a job that can sustain a lifestyle (lucky to make rent) and then we got into automation, that is coming faster then people realize, and right now the country looks at people that lost their jobs as "just being lazy" instead of working. Having a job that pays 50K and losing it to automation to having a job that pays 20-25k a year is not being lazy, that is defeat. We are in a situation right now where the middle to highest simply look at people out of work as lazy when they really have no clue that their own job is next to be cut.

It is sad, and without a basic living stipend, or whatever it is that they are pitching now where everyone gets basic living costs, the entire country will be half homeless, and in time 1/3 will only have jobs and look down on the millions that can't make ends meet.

Anyways to reply to the post after my rant, Uber will always be around because it gives people a way to pay bills on time, one way or another there will always be a handout for Uber because there is not a better option. And when I mean handout you can use your imagination where that handout will come from.


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## Atom guy (Jul 27, 2016)

Uber/Lyft is starting to remind me of XM/Sirius. Identical products, high cost of customer acquisition and retention, many other competitors.

The only way I see it working is for Uber and Lyft to merge. Yes, there are other rideshare competitors, but they don't have the funds to spend like Uber and Lyft have done to build their businesses to similar levels. By merging they would be able to raise prices, while still being very much lower than taxis. Separately they, just don't have pricing power. When one surges, people just switch to the cheaper app. I just did that myself today as a driver. Uber was surging and Lyft wasn't, so I cancelled on the Lyft passenger I was headed to get, and took a surge Uber passenger instead.


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## Braxton Beckette (Nov 18, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Correct. So when the bottom falls out, the fire sale should be lucrative.


Uber programming engineers will become information brokers overnight.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Braxton Beckette said:


> Uber programming engineers will become information brokers overnight.


that is well, but that's not what I meant. What a corporation. They sell off their various assets weather they're tangible or non tangible assets.th


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## Nats121 (Jul 19, 2017)

BigBadJohn said:


> Uber losing money? How is that even possible. Next to no overhead, relatively few "employees" all property leased so massive tax write offs as they own nothing. What expenses do they really have other than a couple of computer programmers. The rest are nothing more than unpaid intetns. So how do they "lose" $3BB in a quarter? It's not lost. Just deposited into untraceable Swiss bank accounts and then laundered back into the pockets of the few in the ivory tower. What. I'm wrong?


Remember that NONE of uber's financials have been corroborated by outside sources.

I have no doubt they're making a profit in North America, no doubt whatsoever.

The question then becomes where are the "losses" supposedly coming from?

While I wouldn't rule anything nefarious with Uber, more likely the profits are being invested in SDCs, flying cars, scooters, world wide expansion, etc.

You'll be glad to know that the billions uber's saving by paying drivers 1970s pay rates is subsidising all that shit and the possible $120 billion IPO.


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## mrpjfresh (Aug 16, 2016)

I think you're spot on. Dara was brought in specially for the IPO. Every action has been to cut costs and squeeze every little bit of profit in order to have a good showing for their IPO.

Without knowing all the details of their internals, if I were on the board I would, as has been already reported, urge them to give up and sell off on these dreams of robots cars. Other, far smarter and more experienced companies are tackling this as well and we see just how well (ie: NOT) Uber does when there is REAL competition (exhibit A: UberEats). I would also take a look at insurance. I would have an analysis done on whether forcing drivers to buy their own commercial policies would save any money versus the status quo insuring all these ants through James River. Maybe raise rates a few dimes per mile to avoid culling too many drivers and spin it as a good thing ala upfront pricing, new surge, rewards program, etc. If it was not worth the hassle, at the very least I would raise the deductible to $2500, matching Lyft's, to save money at almost no cost/risk to Uber.

The biggest hurdle is overcoming the company's dog$hit reputation in eyes of anyone who has even the littlest amount of experience with it and this is evident by all this yearlong PR nonsense. Uber is like your friend's new boyfriend: fresh, charming and puts on a good face in public. But really get to know him and you find out he's full of crap, unemployed (aside from illicit activities) and even abusive. Uber has sown such ill-will, it may be nearly impossible to ever repair.



Seamus said:


> I don't pretend to have the answers but I sincerely don't see it as lawsuits, waste or fraud, but rather a poor business model at it's core. The only way to make substantial financial improvements is to entirely change the business model.


I don't know that I'd say the model is inherently flawed. I actually respect the original idea (it was NOT Uber's by the way) as there was a need to be filled in many markets. I wholeheartedly do not respect the way Uber perverted this concept of "ridesharing" and turned people into underpaid and ill-prepared ********* drivers while they funded all these various adventures and extravagances on their backs. Rideshare worked pretty well, apparently, when Uber and Lyft left Austin.

I always like to compare Uber to Napster as there are quite a few parallels. Both companies were led by a egomaniacal jerk. Both cavalierly broke laws while changing the way people fundamentally thought about their respective industries. And I totally believe Uber will go the way of Napster. While Napster got sued and neutered into an effete entity, Uber _may_ follow suit or get regulated to death. However, I think they will more likely just collapse under the weight of their own ineptitude and hubris. Other companies with better software and grown-ups running the show who will stay "in their lane" and turn a profit will fill the void. They will also not have nearly the legal resistance as rideshare is now somewhat normalized and Uber bore the brunt of these legal challenges to help establish this. Cities and states will learn from the "wild west" era of rideshare and new companies will actually play by the new, established rules and regulations until the model changes yet again. That's how I see it anyway.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

I expect Uber to easily last another ten years but probably a lot longer.

If I was running the company I would do three things. Cut my losses in India as Uber did in China. Next drop the failed SDC program. Then I would stop subsidizing Pool. These three logical things might quickly turn Uber into a profitable company. Of course none of us know for sure because none of us know their real numbers.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

So much denial in this thread. "We don't know the real numbers".
Correct.
They may be far worse.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

They can easily break even...tweaking SDC and advertising can chop off 500 milliOn.


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## dauction (Sep 26, 2017)

arcterus said:


> Once Uber has to show a path to profitability, they will raise their rates to very close to taxi rates. Within two weeks, Lyft will do the same.


Exactly ..and Uber has revenues of nearly 50 Billion ... right about the same as Amazon ..... Uber isn't going anywhere, Rates WILL rise as the need to support investors rises. Drivers will make a bit more as well


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## Crosbyandstarsky (Feb 4, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


Someone will buy it


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Crosbyandstarsky said:


> Someone will buy it


Sure, at fire sale prices. But how can a company which can't turn a profit and is almost out of capital stay in business?
No one seems to have the answer.


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## kcdrvr15 (Jan 10, 2017)

Braxton Beckette said:


> Uber programming engineers will become information brokers overnight.


Wrong ! fubers programming engineers are mostly H1B visa fraudsters with fake credentials. They can't write code worth siht, they introduce more coding errors trying to fix errors that have been coded. They be like a bunch of chickens chasing a bug. I've noticed an "glitch" in the coding of the app. This "glitch" has been reported before and fixed, only to be re-introduced into a newer version of the app. fuber/grift both are doomed, even if they merge, you can't fix stupid with more stupid.

If your curious this glitch has to do with geo mapping and que managment. It has been exploited before, and with a little research of the forums, a savy driver will recognize it when he stumbles across it. I suspect that this glitch may be reappearing every third or 4th ver upgrade to the android app. This is due to different coding teams working on different ver of the app.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


Investment Firms will use I.P.O. to Rape & Pillage Retirement Funds of Good Hard Working people.

As they have Always done.

Buy your own stocks.

Dont buy " Funds".

PRIVATE PROFITS
PUBLIC RISK.

Just like bad housing loans.
They will sell the little packages of garbage to the public.

DONT BE A VICTIM !



Seamus said:


> History repeats itself. Countless other companies had a popular product but no profit and not enough revenue behind it. (Facebook perfect example). An IPO will force Uber to get to revenue generation and profit within 2-3 years of going public under pressure from large investors.
> 
> How will they do it? Remains to be seen. Through artificially low rates Uber grew and has now generated substantial demand for their product. They have already hit the drivers pretty much as hard as they can. At a certain point rider rates will have to go up but that won't necessarily mean more money for drivers.
> 
> ...


Rates have ALREADY GONE UP
FOR UBER
excluding the Drivers who subsidise Uber


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## Over/Uber (Jan 2, 2017)

Raise ****in rates is the only salvation for Uber.


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## Rakos (Sep 2, 2014)

Uber will sell it's ridesharing...

To Lyft in favor of it's aerodrones...

The on the ground liabilities...

Will reach a point of diminished returns...

They have shown heartily...

That they don't give a **** about drivers..

Oh well...it was fun while it lasted...!

Rakos


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## Listen41 (May 6, 2018)

The math does not add Up. where they losing money? what overhead cost? Unless they are showing loss on purpose for tax write off there is no way fuber can lose money.


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## Gtown Driver (Aug 26, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> What is your move to actually make profit?
> (Raise prices raise prices...)
> But then you lose ridership!


Sad part is even if they raise prices they'll take most of the price raise for themselves and give us the same base money.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Listen41 said:


> The math does not add Up. where they losing money? what overhead cost? Unless they are showing loss on purpose for tax write off there is no way fuber can lose money.


Almost 3 million per year in Manhattan office space alone. There are 10 cities worldwide with such prominence.
Then the Greenlight hubs. Corrupt politicians. Lawsuits.
Actually lawyers are likely the biggest expense.


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## njn (Jan 23, 2016)

The whole driver part (raiser) is uber's side gig. Uber is a tech company and they will spin off raiser. Charge for access to app, profit.


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## Michael1230nj (Jun 23, 2017)

I am also of the opinion that Uber will fail miserably. I suspect the I P O will be stillborn. Travis claims that the seeds of Uber occurred to him when he had difficulty finding a Cab in San Francisco. If he couldn’t find a Towel in the Men’s Room I suspect he would have cornered the men’s room attendant industry. Both being low income minimum wage endeavors. Uber will belly up Robotic Cars have a way to go Uber will be gone way before that.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

Travis’s end game was always autonomous cars. This would have provided the margins to turn profitable.

Recent progress has indicated that they will not be operational in time to provide Uber with a profitable revenue stream. 

I find that having 2 big tech heavyweights on the sidelines uncommitted to rideshare very interesting. Whereas car companies have been aligning themselves with rideshare companies because they can see the car ownership model changing, Google and Apple have huge war chests to splash out on acquiring Uber when they feel it’s ready.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Crosbyandstarsky said:


> Someone will buy it[/QUOT


so


Crosbyandstarsky said:


> Someone will buy it


Someone even bought Myspace.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

tohunt4me said:


> so
> 
> Someone even bought Myspace.


And AOL.
Corporate failures always leave saleable assets. I spent 2 years in a software .com in Burlington, Ma which went **** up about a year after they fired me.
It was aquired. It wasn't pretty. The purchasing company sold off the ASSETS.
They basically tore the company up and sold it for parts.


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## kdyrpr (Apr 23, 2016)

BigBadJohn said:


> Uber losing money? How is that even possible. Next to no overhead, relatively few "employees" all property leased so massive tax write offs as they own nothing. What expenses do they really have other than a couple of computer programmers. The rest are nothing more than unpaid intetns. So how do they "lose" $3BB in a quarter? It's not lost. Just deposited into untraceable Swiss bank accounts and then laundered back into the pockets of the few in the ivory tower. What. I'm wrong?


LOL...this is what I've been saying for years. What the ****? An App. Employees to service the APP. Drivers picking up ALL expenses. HOW THE ****, can you not be profitable. ??!! Why would they ever have decided to invest in anything else?? The cash should be rolling in. Like the scene from the movie BLOW.


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## cobraco (Jul 6, 2016)

One of the things they could do to help profitability is to cut down on the promos to riders. Last weekend I'd say 3/4 of my riders had promos showing in the fares they paid. Many of my riders have said they get promo coupons they don't ask for and would still have taken Uber without the discount. Uber is out of control just handing out the promos.


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## Braxton Beckette (Nov 18, 2018)

kcdrvr15 said:


> Wrong ! fubers programming engineers are mostly H1B visa fraudsters with fake credentials. They can't write code worth siht, they introduce more coding errors trying to fix errors that have been coded. They be like a bunch of chickens chasing a bug. I've noticed an "glitch" in the coding of the app. This "glitch" has been reported before and fixed, only to be re-introduced into a newer version of the app. fuber/grift both are doomed, even if they merge, you can't fix stupid with more stupid.
> 
> If your curious this glitch has to do with geo mapping and que managment. It has been exploited before, and with a little research of the forums, a savy driver will recognize it when he stumbles across it. I suspect that this glitch may be reappearing every third or 4th ver upgrade to the android app. This is due to different coding teams working on different ver of the app.


What is wrong? I was saying that if Uber falls, they could sell the data.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


Uber will grow and grow, destroy everything and person in their path


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## backstreets-trans (Aug 16, 2015)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So much denial in this thread. "We don't know the real numbers".
> Correct.
> They may be far worse.


Here is a little tidbit on some of Uber's legal expense on arbitration cases. 12,501 drivers filed for arbitration at $1,500 per case filing fees.
That's roughly 18.7 million in California alone. This is just the tip of the iceberg in Uber's legal woes.

https://gizmodo.com/ubers-arbitration-policy-comes-back-to-bite-it-in-the-a-1830892372


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

The overall stock market looks like it might be on the verge of taking a huge dump. If the market is down substantially at the time of their IPO it will be even less well received by investors.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

1.5xorbust said:


> The overall stock market looks like it might be on the verge of taking a huge dump. If the market is down substantially at the time of their IPO it will be even less well received by investors.


Or the opposite.
ie. fresh meat


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Or the opposite.
> ie. fresh meat


"Managers Special".


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

when will the telephone line go away? When will word of mouth come back?

Uber is a verb, not a company, we are stuck with this terrible business plan, but it is going to be around for...well ever. Just to answer again the idea that it has to actually 'play' within business rules of things is absurd. This is what the 99.9% do to get around, money doesn't count in that.

And when I mean money, I mean fair money, we still won't cap 1990's cab rates even though they are now set at 1970's rate . lol


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Jay Dean said:


> when will the telephone line go away? When will word of mouth come back?
> 
> Uber is a verb, not a company, we are stuck with this terrible business plan, but it is going to be around for...well ever. Just to answer again the idea that it has to actually 'play' within business rules of things is absurd. This is what the 99.9% do to get around, money doesn't count in that.


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## melusine3 (Jun 20, 2016)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Great post sir. At one point, I did some maths (when Uber rented double their previous Manhattan office space) and came up with 2 to 3 million a year in Manhattan rent alone (not including greenlight hubs). To me, this kind of wastrel spending is indicative of how much of a money sieve Uber really is.
> 
> Reminded me of my one trip to San Francisco in the early Zeros. All these glass skyscrapers dedicated to domain name based dot Coms. I knew it was folly then, I know it's folly now.
> You can gild a turd, it's still shit on the inside.


When I started with Uber over 2 years ago, there were 6 people manning the store. They are now down to ONE person lol.



backstreets-trans said:


> It really boogles my mind on how Uber can be losing so much money. With up front rates and the add on surge Uber is taking 40 oercent of most fares. I'm paying uber way more a day than I did the cab companies I use to work for. On top of this I pay for all car related costs.
> 
> Once an IPO comes out the financials will become public info. The number of accidents and lawsuits will stun investors. Ubers policy of hiring anybody and discarding the experienced drivers is backfiring. Rookie drivers have always been more prone to accidents than the seasoned professional. Ubers liability expenses probably run 10 times as high as a cab company with their driver churn and lack of training.
> 
> I look forward to seeing what they've wasted all these billions on. I just hope that don't get to fleece all the mom and pop small investors and workers pension funds to line their pockets.


Uber has to pay for all the advertising, lining politician pockets, sign-on bonuses, selling your friend down the river bonuses and MORE! They have to do something to cover the 95% turnover rate of it's drivers.



cobraco said:


> One of the things they could do to help profitability is to cut down on the promos to riders. Last weekend I'd say 3/4 of my riders had promos showing in the fares they paid. Many of my riders have said they get promo coupons they don't ask for and would still have taken Uber without the discount. Uber is out of control just handing out the promos.


They show the number of rides to investors to show need, they don't show how much are subsidized.



TwoFiddyMile said:


> So much denial in this thread. "We don't know the real numbers".
> Correct.
> They may be far worse.


Here you go! 
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018...hlx5U0v1WMGknEbggzsXgCQ4NnP3Vv4fKUn0#comments


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## Jon77 (Dec 6, 2018)

I personally will enjoy watching them go down in flames.
It’s a flawed business model run by corporate criminals.
I initially started to drive to get to know more about the company because I was really interested in the IPO.
I left so much money on the table because I bought Apple late I got into google late I missed the big run in Nvidia.
I am now convinced this is a big con, the drvers already got the shaft, the initial investors now realize if they don’t unload this turd onto mom and pop retail investors they will be next in line.
Travis pulled off this heist masterfully.
Undercut a financially challenged industry by offering fire sale prices, recruit mathematically naive ‘partners’, create massive media buzz and a rapidly growing base of paxholes, dump stock on retail investors, count your pile of money.
Who needs to rob banks, that’s so pedestrian.


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

If Uber ever does go with an IPO it will be too little and too late, there are more rideshare companies coming online every week that”ll provide better services and drivers will earn a livable income.
As it stands right now both Uber and Lyft have too many issues with internal management and drivers that are subpar.
We all know that Uber has incompetent management, but also has drivers that don’t speak English, have no idea of how to use GPS and drivers that are unauthorized.
Uber and Lyft are facing 10s of millions in lawsuits, bleeding billions on useless services, and screwing drivers to please passengers with unsubstantiated claims.
Uber and Lyft will die on the vine if they don’t get their act together NOW.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

peteyvavs said:


> If Uber ever does go with an IPO it will be too little and too late, there are more rideshare companies coming online every week
> 
> that"ll provide better services and drivers will earn a livable income.
> As it stands right now both Uber and Lyft have too many issues with internal management and drivers that are subpar.
> ...


Every week? Nope. Rideshare is what it is today and it might get even less profitable for drivers.


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## kcdrvr15 (Jan 10, 2017)

Braxton Beckette said:


> Uber programming engineers will become information brokers overnight.


LOL, uber's programming engineers are all third world, "University" graduates ( ie high school) with bogus credentials, this is why the app is so buggy, they aren't coders, they are cut and paste code copiers. They pay them half of what a us trained tech is paid, because they only know half of what they need to know to be good it techs or coders. Can't wait for these losers to fall down.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Can't wait for the IPO.


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## Wonkytonk (Jan 28, 2018)

Michael1230nj said:


> Uber will belly up Robotic Cars have a way to go Uber will be gone way before that.


That's the essential gist of it right there.

They're relying on the fact that at some point SDCs will save them from the money they grudgingly pay to drivers while simultaneously actually currently counting on {desperate for) a continued source of drivers to help keep them afloat while they wait out the clock on SDCSs because current drivers are the primary source of income they don't have to repay.

Unfortunately for their greedy a$$es more and more drivers are becoming aware of the way they're being horribly used by the rideshare companies.

Kind of irks me when pro Uber "drivers" here hammer on the new drivers who are only starting to realize they're not getting 75% of the total fare they thought they were and Uber and Lyft both rely on that unfortunate ignorance. That's actually most drivers. If you ask them they still think they're getting 75% of the total fare,and Uber and lyft do a lousy job of clarifying that for obvious reasons.

If there's one thing we can do it's inform drivers like that whenever we can.

As for Uber's profitablity I find that frankly, mine is more important to me, and as a driver that pretty much means that for Uber to become and stay profitable it has to at least temporarily dump its SDC hopes, dump everything that isn't driver transportation related, limit promotional discounts, and sustain the cost of those offers itself, and make sure it takes driver profitability into account in its current and future pay structure. It needs to do more than pay lip service to the importance of drivers in the success of Uber.

Frankly they need to dump all non-driver related transportation efforts, reduce their total take to 10% of the total fare with 90% going to drivers with no additional fees not government mandated,and those are passed on the the rider without a cut to driver or Uber. It needs to tie its success to the success of drivers and not at the expense of drivers as it's currently doing.


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## MikeNY (May 6, 2016)

The answer is obvious "why is Uber losing money? 
They invested majority of all their profits into Autonomous Vehicles.

What will happen once they go public?
It will sort of give past and current investors cashback on their investments. Not everything but a bit to satisfy their emotions.

They will eventually disappear like AOL My Space Yahoo .

Anyone old enough to remember dial up......
"you've got mail"


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## oldfart (Dec 22, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


No

public companies are not obligated to do anything legal to make a profit.

Of course the company might lose stock value and fire the CEO and liquidate holdings, but that's not illegal

I would use chick-fal-a as an example. They are not open on Sundays. Due to some religious thing. I would bet they would make more money if they were open but the companies values include more than just profit. And that's not illegal

Here's an article that says it better than I can 
https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordeba...rs/corporations-dont-have-to-maximize-profits

To your point. Uber does have to make a profit at some point but raising prices isn't the only way to do that, they could reduce expenses; perhaps by ending the driverless car thing and closing or selling the foreign markets (maybe franchising individual markets)


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

oldfart said:


> No
> 
> public companies are not obligated to do anything legal to make a profit.
> 
> ...


Chick-fil-A is not a publicly traded corporation. A private company can do absolutely anything it wants under the auspices of the existing laws.


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

Uber/Lyft will die very shortly, Trumps economics will see to that.


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## Cableguynoe (Feb 14, 2017)

It won't die. Ever. 

That's my prediction.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

peteyvavs said:


> Uber/Lyft will die very shortly, Trumps economics will see to that.


Uber isn't going away. Lyft will probably survive too. The ones who take a beating are the drivers.


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## peteyvavs (Nov 18, 2015)

I’m not worried about Uber and Lyft dying, I’m more concerned that the country is going to die because of Trump and his stupidity. After all he went bankrupt 6 times and he’s applying the same logic to the country.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

kdyrpr said:


> LOL...this is what I've been saying for years. What the @@@@? An App. Employees to service the APP. Drivers picking up ALL expenses. HOW THE @@@@, can you not be profitable. ??!! Why would they ever have decided to invest in anything else?? The cash should be rolling in. Like the scene from the movie BLOW.


Uber must BUY more Market Share
BEFORE I.P.O.

CHARTS MUST GO UP ^


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## Michael1230nj (Jun 23, 2017)

I think we have a consensus on where this thing is headed. The I.P.O will be the high-point the early investors will get back some of their money. SoftBank stock has been falling and the Saudis have so much it probably doesn’t matter. The interesting question is what happens after? . Ride-Share is here to stay.


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## D713 (Nov 15, 2018)

Jay Dean said:


> I was talking with my neighbor today about jobs and automation, and said, why now is it so appealing to be a faux cab driver? He said it best I think, there really aren't jobs the way the media is portraying. I live in Austin and the economy is super strong, yet there are so many people driving (do they all want to? Doubtful) Yes, there are a lot of jobs, but working at Mcdonalds and the like is not really a job that can sustain a lifestyle (lucky to make rent) and then we got into automation, that is coming faster then people realize, and right now the country looks at people that lost their jobs as "just being lazy" instead of working. Having a job that pays 50K and losing it to automation to having a job that pays 20-25k a year is not being lazy, that is defeat. We are in a situation right now where the middle to highest simply look at people out of work as lazy when they really have no clue that their own job is next to be cut.
> 
> It is sad, and without a basic living stipend, or whatever it is that they are pitching now where everyone gets basic living costs, the entire country will be half homeless, and in time 1/3 will only have jobs and look down on the millions that can't make ends meet.
> 
> Anyways to reply to the post after my rant, Uber will always be around because it gives people a way to pay bills on time, one way or another there will always be a handout for Uber because there is not a better option. And when I mean handout you can use your imagination where that handout will come from.


Nice post. Yes, automation is here and the pressing question is how to maintain social stability with decreasing demand for human labor. Universal income will happen, but unlikely as a handout. More bipartisan plan would be manditory military service for vocational training. Even the hyper libertarians tout a "pre-bate" in the Fair Tax Plan.


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## Gtown Driver (Aug 26, 2018)

Why do people still think something that that allows motel 6 laundromat goers the access to a ride that's much cheaper and shorter than the alternatives is going to just suddenly disappear? Even if Walmart tries to come in with a rideshare service it's going to be tough.


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## TwoFiddyMile (Mar 13, 2015)

Gtown Driver said:


> Why do people still think something that that allows motel 6 laundromat goers the access to a ride that's much cheaper and shorter than the alternatives is going to just suddenly disappear? Even if Walmart tries to come in with a rideshare service it's going to be tough.


Because drivers cannot sustain rideshare to make a living. The only thing that's sustainable is if 100% of rideshare drivers do it extremely part-time on top of a lucrative career in some other industry. It destroys the car and it is not sustainable as a full-time pursuit


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## Gtown Driver (Aug 26, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> Because drivers cannot sustain rideshare to make a living. The only thing that's sustainable is if 100% of rideshare drivers do it extremely part-time on top of a lucrative career in some other industry. It destroys the car and it is not sustainable as a full-time pursuit


Sure an individual driver can not sustain it, but I'm pretty sure Uber has realized at this point that the platform sets them up to have an allottment of part/full time ants that will always be on the road picking people up. Uber is the job you can get when every department store says they're all filled up or the IT job says you have certificates but not enough experience.

There's always gonna be another car singing up to drive. Some full time and some part time that ant out on busy before/after work and holiday hours.


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

Uber can’t die. It’s a corporation in perpetuity.


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## Dammit Mazzacane (Dec 31, 2015)

MikeNY said:


> They will eventually disappear like AOL My Space Yahoo .


* Yahoo and also-ran search engines went down the tubes because Google made a better product. Yahoo did all these moves in the mid-2000s to expand and explore things not related to their core business (like Flickr I think), because their core business was underwater.
* AOL went down the tubes because it was a third-party DSL/dial-up internet service provider (it didn't own the service lines) and the broadband competition from cable companies, etc. was too much to overcome. AOL did a bunch of moves like buy up ISP competitors before the Broadband wave put Comcast out front. AOLTimeWarner was a strange merger. AT&T wanted TimeWarner because of the media assets, such as HBO, for vertical alignment purposes.
* MySpace was inferior to Facebook's social connections and was comparatively bloated. MySpace ceded the social media arena and strangely pivoted to trying to make a big push into music playlists, which is easily countered by YouTube having music videos to listen to and Spotify/etc. services available.

So what will usurp Uber *AND* Lyft? That's what we have to look at with these case examples. It won't be mismanagement or bad PR or automation... the core assets of the functioning company are attractive enough to acquire. I think the answer is "the better product."
The answer would come from either A) Car manufacturers creating a better product with better customer pricing and/or driver incentives or B) Technology megagiants running a better company. Once someone like Google gets in, a few others will react and jump in as well. Alternatively, Lyft seems like the most obvious company for one of these larger companies to purchase if Uber doesn't try buying Lyft first. (Doubt it can be vice-versa.)
If Facebook pulled off a rideshare driver system...they could gun for it. Think this way: You can immediately summon a Facebook car to take you to the restaurant/bar/club/friend's house that you were just now looking at on Facebook. Instant clicking around. No need for a third-party app outside of social media. You can sign up to be a driver through Facebook, etc. The company could give drivers small screens to put in your car that would serve Facebook ads on them to make extra money while driving around -- the sort of screens like what Vugo is doing -- to even gamify the thing. Facebook ads are a service within itself, which neither Uber nor Lyft have ad services so they don't want ads in the car.
The global infrastructure through the social network is already there to launch an independent contractor network of drivers in many cities. (It just would need to be backed up with service hubs akin to the Greenlight Hub)

Or.... Amazon. Yep, Amazon. Maybe half your rides are passengers, the other half are grocery deliveries from the Amazon Fresh store.
We're screwed.

Car manufacturers already have fleets. Why not set aside a fleet of slower-selling cars that people can "rent" (like HyreCar) and go drive on a manufacturer's proprietary ridesharing platform?
The largest cost -- the vehicle -- is already vertically integrated by the company that manufactures them. Dump unwanted, amortized or slow-selling models into fleet use.
Two case studies there:
1) Crown Victorias were well amortized... dated platform, basic stuff, constantly able to move on fleets, long runs between refreshes. It did not cost Ford much to sell these since all the "major pieces" that went into them already were amortized.
2) GM went out of its way to extend the life of a dated Malibu with a fleet-only model called the Malibu Classic. It got dumped into rental car lots. It also went out of its way to bring in the Captiva model, which also exclusively went to rental car companies. https://www.autoblog.com/2014/11/06/chevy-captiva-sport-discontinued/ I guess they also did it with a prior-model Impala too for about two years while the modern model was on dealer lots: https://www.autoblog.com/2013/10/28/chevy-impala-limited-2016/

Maybe even make a "rent to own" system (like Aaron's furniture) and pair it to a proprietary rideshare service where you can optionally drive your car on it because, hey, it's like paying off the car payment by driving on this system (while the carmaker banks the ride profits).
The Hertz-Uber deal disallows you to drive Lyft. Couldn't a car company create the same predatory arrangement and say "only our system, not Uber or Lyft)"?


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## Dammit Mazzacane (Dec 31, 2015)

This was an interesting prompt to think about- thanks!


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## MikeNY (May 6, 2016)

Dammit Mazzacane said:


> * Yahoo and also-ran search engines went down the tubes because Google made a better product. Yahoo did all these moves in the mid-2000s to expand and explore things not related to their core business (like Flickr I think), because their core business was underwater.
> * AOL went down the tubes because it was a third-party DSL/dial-up internet service provider (it didn't own the service lines) and the broadband competition from cable companies, etc. was too much to overcome. AOL did a bunch of moves like buy up ISP competitors before the Broadband wave put Comcast out front. AOLTimeWarner was a strange merger. AT&T wanted TimeWarner because of the media assets, such as HBO, for vertical alignment purposes.
> * MySpace was inferior to Facebook's social connections and was comparatively bloated. MySpace ceded the social media arena and strangely pivoted to trying to make a big push into music playlists, which is easily countered by YouTube having music videos to listen to and Spotify/etc. services available.
> 
> ...


An APP based co nationwide that will only take 20% of the fare.
It will be the Ebay of Ride Share where drivers closest can compete with pricing based on supply and demand

It can be very profitable. The only reason why Uber has lost so much money is because they invested their profits in Autonomous vehicles.

I have outlined a broader picture if how easy it would be to disrupt Uber/lyft

See link


Dammit Mazzacane said:


> * Yahoo and also-ran search engines went down the tubes because Google made a better product. Yahoo did all these moves in the mid-2000s to expand and explore things not related to their core business (like Flickr I think), because their core business was underwater.
> * AOL went down the tubes because it was a third-party DSL/dial-up internet service provider (it didn't own the service lines) and the broadband competition from cable companies, etc. was too much to overcome. AOL did a bunch of moves like buy up ISP competitors before the Broadband wave put Comcast out front. AOLTimeWarner was a strange merger. AT&T wanted TimeWarner because of the media assets, such as HBO, for vertical alignment purposes.
> * MySpace was inferior to Facebook's social connections and was comparatively bloated. MySpace ceded the social media arena and strangely pivoted to trying to make a big push into music playlists, which is easily countered by YouTube having music videos to listen to and Spotify/etc. services available.
> 
> ...


An APP based co nationwide that will only take 20% of the fare. 
It will be the Ebay of Ride Share where drivers closest can compete with pricing based on supply and demand 
It can be very profitable. The only reason why Uber has lost so much money is because they invested their profits in Autonomous vehicles.
I have outlined a broader picture if how easy it would be to disrupt Uber/lyft 
See link
https://uberpeople.net/threads/a-ride-share-app-that-will-disrupt-uber-lyft.302369/


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## Jay Dean (Apr 3, 2015)

This is a silly idea across the board, but the post office (to best of my knowledge) was a part business, part government operation, if Uber is the "new" way the top 99% get around, and we are the bottom feed drivers, why wouldn't it just be a "handout" or even a government ran group? The idea that MASS transportation is ran by a business is silly in itself, when you think about the fact that we always find a way to "go" with what works for the majority. Yeah? Now this is just a thought lol, and not at ALL saying this will happen, but I can honestly see a new post office situation going on, but with rideshare.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Jon77 said:


> I initially started to drive to get to know more about the company because I was really interested in the IPO.
> 
> I left so much money on the table because I bought Apple late I got into google late I missed the big run in Nvidia.
> I am now convinced this is a big con, the drvers already got the shaft, the initial investors now realize if they don't unload this turd onto mom and pop retail investors they will be next in line.
> ...


What a coincidence!! Do you know the poster called @No Prisoners?


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

1.5xorbust said:


> Uber can't die. It's a corporation in perpetuity.


Be A Good " GLOBAL CITIZEN" and do what the CORPORATION tells you to !


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## Molongo (Aug 11, 2018)

Atom guy said:


> Uber/Lyft is starting to remind me of XM/Sirius. Identical products, high cost of customer acquisition and retention, many other competitors.
> 
> The only way I see it working is for Uber and Lyft to merge. Yes, there are other rideshare competitors, but they don't have the funds to spend like Uber and Lyft have done to build their businesses to similar levels. By merging they would be able to raise prices, while still being very much lower than taxis. Separately they, just don't have pricing power. When one surges, people just switch to the cheaper app. I just did that myself today as a driver. Uber was surging and Lyft wasn't, so I cancelled on the Lyft passenger I was headed to get, and took a surge Uber passenger instead.


Sometimes I feel that uber/Lyft are just 2 faces to the same coin.


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## nouberipo (Jul 24, 2018)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


They were the ones creating this system in what they view as a lawless society (if you have the money and connections). Now the regulators are stepping in and they are going to have to back peddle quite a bit it seems if they are going to survive. I for one want nothing more than to see the demise of Uber and Lyft and see their CEO's and founders in prison.


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## SurgeMasterMN (Sep 10, 2016)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


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## TPAMB (Feb 13, 2019)

When someone cuts off their money.


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## UberTrent9 (Dec 11, 2018)

Pedro Paramo66 said:


> As long as exist desperate stupid creepy losers willing to drive for charity and donations


Including yourself, right?


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## MadTownUberD (Mar 11, 2017)

UberTrent9 said:


> Including yourself, right?


Now that's really not very nice.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

TwoFiddyMile said:


> So Softbank kicked in 1.25 billion last year. That money is gone now. No new investors on the horizon.
> Do you really believe next year's IPO is going to fly?
> I don't. Even if they get it off the ground, I don't see it being successful.
> Other than IPO, do you think other VC is out there for Uber?
> ...


The IPO worked. Uber has plenty of money in the bank. Dara has started to layoff excess employees. He still has a lot more work to do but he's been making progress.


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