# Uber hard at work on effort to replace drivers with machines



## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

*Uber hard at work on effort to replace drivers with machines*


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## Backdash (Jan 28, 2015)

Lets say that this happens on 1/1/16. Whos going to be paying for the purchase/maintenance/fuel/insurance and storage facilities of these cars.

Everything Ive read on this topic no matter where it comes from doesnt address the costs. Has Uber thought about it, of course they have. Id love to hear their rationale behind why driverless is more cost effective than the current model. It seems blatently foolish to believe they can cover costs at .44 and .08 per mile as the article cites.

In any case we are a long way off from this becoming a standard broadly accepted safe technology for everyday use.

The author of the article is an uninformed dolt.... $3.00-$3.50 per mile being charged for UberX now.


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## ubershiza (Jan 19, 2015)

We all knew this was coming. Next 30% will become 35 or 40 as the self diving cars are put on the road. A company that manages the autonomous cars will be set up, to avoid uber from the liability of being called a taxi company. A great company to work for as a partner. /sarc


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## Backdash (Jan 28, 2015)

ubershiza said:


> A company that manages the autonomous cars will be set up, to avoid uber from the liability of being called a taxi company.


It doesnt matter if Uber manages the cars or a "company" is set up to manage the cars. If a third pary does it they wont be voluntering their services free of charge or just to break even. The costs are the costs. Nobody, Uber or otherwise will be willing to do it without it being profitable.

Getting a car to drive itself 20 miles on a predetermined closed route and getting a car to drive itself through downtown of a major city are two completely different things.

I agree that its coming, just not in a a time frame that I'm concerned about.


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

Backdash said:


> The author of the article is an uninformed dolt.... $3.00-$3.50 per mile being charged for UberX now.


The "$3.00 - $3.50 per mile being charged for UberX now" was from a report titled Disruptive Mobility by Barclays Auto Analyst Bryan Johnson.
So much for grounding an analyst report in factual numbers!


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## Showa50 (Nov 30, 2014)

Once a these machines start hitting people and property real drivers will be in demand again. That is if this hype ever gets off the ground. 

I doubt these machines will have the 'balls' to cut 6 lanes of traffic because you have to get to the other side and have to make people stop to do it.


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## chi1cabby (May 28, 2014)

Showa50 said:


> I doubt these machines will have the 'balls' to cut 6 lanes of traffic because you have to get to the other side and have to make people stop to do it.


Hahaha!
The UberROBOT would just sit there till the traffic eased up!


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## Showa50 (Nov 30, 2014)

BTW... How the eff are we drivers 'one of Uber's biggest cost' they don't give us jack. This article is Bullshit! 

If anything the local office employees are Uber's biggest cost and will be phased out because they don't have to deal with us drivers any more.


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## Scenicruiser (Oct 17, 2014)

Backdash said:


> Lets say that this happens on 1/1/16. Whos going to be paying for the purchase/maintenance/fuel/insurance and storage facilities of these cars.


It will be us, we'll be on this forum *****ing and saying, "I'm not sending the cars out with no surge." and new guys that just bought a "driverless" telling us how thier only expense is gas or electric.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

Showa50 said:


> Once a these machines start hitting people and property real drivers will be in demand again. That is if this hype ever gets off the ground.
> 
> I doubt these machines will have the 'balls' to cut 6 lanes of traffic because you have to get to the other side and have to make people stop to do it.


If you think about it, the car won't need to cut across 6 lanes of traffic. It will know exactly where it's supposed to be.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

Backdash said:


> Lets say that this happens on 1/1/16. Whos going to be paying for the purchase/maintenance/fuel/insurance and storage facilities of these cars.
> 
> Everything Ive read on this topic no matter where it comes from doesnt address the costs. Has Uber thought about it, of course they have. Id love to hear their rationale behind why driverless is more cost effective than the current model. It seems blatently foolish to believe they can cover costs at .44 and .08 per mile as the article cites.
> 
> ...


Do your sums!

$20 p/hr guarantee (+ other income streams)
18 hours a day
6 days a week
48 weeks a year
(Even Robots need holidays)

That's a little over 100k p/a
Say the driverless car costs $150k
My current percentage split has my drivers carving 40-45% of the gross. I'm supposed to fund, maintain, fuel up, licence and insure my car and take a profit with the remaining 55-60%, less when I pay work orginators like UBER their cut.

I've said it before chi1cabby my bank would jump at the chance to fund my driverless fleet.

Had a one to one with a client of mine, State Transport Minister here in OZ, he said that ALL Transport Departments in Australia are PRO Driverless cars. They are convinced, the sooner they are deployed the better. All the legal issues have been sorted - Google are accepting and insuring against all liabilities.

Robots would make the streets a safer place in more ways than just a few


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## Backdash (Jan 28, 2015)

Sydney Uber said:


> Do your sums!
> 
> $20 p/hr guarantee (+ other income streams)


Guarantee? Guarantees are used as driver incentive. There would be no drivers and no need to incentivize "robots", as you call them.
Uber is talking about how they could lower rates to .44 per mile. So maybe redo your math?

As far as "All the legal issues have been sorted", see link.

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1AFAB_enUS498US501&ion=1&espv=2&es_th=1&ie=UTF-8#q=legal issues driverless cars&es_th=1


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

Backdash said:


> Guarantee? Guarantees are used as driver incentive. There would be no drivers and no need to incentivize "robots", as you call them.
> Uber is talking about how they could lower rates to .44 per mile. So maybe redo your math?
> 
> As far as "All the legal issues have been sorted", see link.
> ...


Sheesh! Forget the driver (that is what this technology is all about) - the guarantee is the incentive to those fleet operators who FUND the hardware.

Uber's tried and proven method of expansion is using OTHER people's capital. It wont change here. As a small fleet operator the only problem will be UBER's track record of changing rates, and its bullshit spin it uses to cover up falling returns.

You need to read that report you have linked to. The imperative that is expressed is that policy & lawmakers agree in unison that driverless cars WILL improve tthe road safety environment. In fact they say that delaying the technology WILL result in continued unnecessary death and injury on roads. 33,000 deaths in America, around 1 million world wide.

As a fleet operator I could make 50 cents a mile work if the capital outlay is closer to 75-90k. Also for added income my robot was seconded by the various enforcement agencies that would gladly pay for data collection and bounties for a whole range of lawbreakers. A expired tag/rego was spotted with realtime location info transmitted, images / video of a driven car being driven in an unsafe illegal manner all sent direct to the traffic section of the local Police who then prioritise the jobs. They can send a citation out on the strength of the video and images, if it is serious the robot or robots are tasked to observe and report on the suspect car till Police safely catch up and stop the driver. CHA CHING! Money in the bank with bounties like that!

The Transport Minister I spoke with on Thursday was very pro driverless cars. Google had met with him and he is comfortable for progress to go ahead. That is all that this technology needs to perfect. Positive bias from the regulators.

My earlier predictions that TRIALS in major cities by 2020 has been shattered. Its happening now. The collating of real life, on road data an scenarios will accelerate their eventual deployment.


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## Backdash (Jan 28, 2015)

Sydney Uber,
I mentioned guarantees because you used $20 per hr guarantee in your math. Thats a number created by you based on some driver guarantees in place randomly now. You used that number in your formula to justify how it would work financially. At this point nobody knows the operating costs of a real world driverless car. You cant make financial viablity estimates with an unknown cost number. One could make an educated guess as to the cost. But I would challenge the guesstimate method in any business venture.

I didnt link to a specific report, the link I gave is to a google search result of "legal issues driverless cars" which returns several different articles. I posted the link in response to your comment that "All the legal issues have been sorted". Clearly as of yet all the legal issues have not been sorted out.

I wasnt and Im not debating Ubers methods nor the idea that driverless cars have many potential benefits. Nor am I debating that at some point it will happen.

I really dont think one would find many people against driverless cars. But Im thinking people will be in the drivers seat for the foreseeable future.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

Backdash said:


> Sydney Uber,
> I mentioned guarantees because you used $20 per hr guarantee in your math. Thats a number created by you based on some driver guarantees in place randomly now. You used that number in your formula to justify how it would work financially. At this point nobody knows the operating costs of a real world driverless car. You cant make financial viablity estimates with an unknown cost number. One could make an educated guess as to the cost. But I would challenge the guesstimate method in any business venture.
> 
> I didnt link to a specific report, the link I gave is to a google search result of "legal issues driverless cars" which returns several different articles. I posted the link in response to your comment that "All the legal issues have been sorted". Clearly as of yet all the legal issues have not been sorted out.
> ...


Something else I haven't seen mentioned is that Uber can RAISE rates to itself and make more money.

If you sold your car thinking you would Uber the rest of your life, you place yourself at Ubers mercy.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

observer said:


> Something else I haven't seen mentioned is that Uber can RAISE rates to itself and make more money.
> 
> If you sold your car thinking you would Uber the rest of your life, you place yourself at Ubers mercy.


And, since Uber knows the destinations and rates of all pax, it could cherry pick the best, most profitable fares and leave the leftovers to any drivers with cars it does decide to keep.


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## Backdash (Jan 28, 2015)

observer said:


> Something else I haven't seen mentioned is that Uber can RAISE rates to itself and make more money.
> 
> If you sold your car thinking you would Uber the rest of your life, you place yourself at Ubers mercy.


Not sure why you quoted my post with the above response...?


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

Backdash said:


> Not sure why you quoted my post with the above response...?


Me either!


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

observer said:


> Me either!


I must have picked the wrong post, I'll go back in a bit and find correct one.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

Backdash said:


> Sydney Uber,
> I mentioned guarantees because you used $20 per hr guarantee in your math. Thats a number created by you based on some driver guarantees in place randomly now. You used that number in your formula to justify how it would work financially. At this point nobody knows the operating costs of a real world driverless car. You cant make financial viablity estimates with an unknown cost number. One could make an educated guess as to the cost. But I would challenge the guesstimate method in any business venture.
> 
> I didnt link to a specific report, the link I gave is to a google search result of "legal issues driverless cars" which returns several different articles. I posted the link in response to your comment that "All the legal issues have been sorted". Clearly as of yet all the legal issues have not been sorted out.
> ...


With the amount of regulatory bias for driverless cars around tthe world that I didnt know about till I read your linked article, the day is getting closer than I thought. Fancy the United Nations getting involved in this development and pushing for world wide standards and systems to accelerate its development! They have the attitude the sooner they are on the road, the fewer people will be hurt or killed.

Last year a European car manufacturers group said all of its members felt that driverless cars will be fully operational on the roads by 2022. Google shot back 2018. I think Google are right.


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## Sydney Uber (Apr 15, 2014)

Backdash said:


> Sydney Uber,
> I mentioned guarantees because you used $20 per hr guarantee in your math. Thats a number created by you based on some driver guarantees in place randomly now. You used that number in your formula to justify how it would work financially. At this point nobody knows the operating costs of a real world driverless car. You cant make financial viablity estimates with an unknown cost number. One could make an educated guess as to the cost. But I would challenge the guesstimate method in any business venture.
> 
> I didnt link to a specific report, the link I gave is to a google search result of "legal issues driverless cars" which returns several different articles. I posted the link in response to your comment that "All the legal issues have been sorted". Clearly as of yet all the legal issues have not been sorted out.
> ...


A driverless car would be heaps cheaper to run. It will have all these remote charge pads that it can drive to for a little bbattery top up whilst waiting for the next job. Unlike my drivers who (understandably so) will drop a job and if there is more than 2hrs wait for the next, will drive 20km away from the work hotspots. That little human habit costs me 10000km (6000m) per year in wear and tear and fuel!

A central computer will position the available robots as evenly apart from each other as possible to help ensure the best response times.

Building and property owners will be jumping over each other to provide a very expensive city parking spot within their building with charge pad to the Robots. They will know that the efficiencies of having one "on call" for staff to do errands at 50cents a mileis mile is much cheaper and easier than hailing cabs or booking a cruising car. As ssoon as that car is deployed, another Robot car will shuffle into place and wait quietly there for its new assignment. (It may watch some old Jetsons re-runs to pass the time away)!


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## cybertec69 (Jul 23, 2014)

Wishful thinking, this will not happen in our lifetime, LOL.


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## Backdash (Jan 28, 2015)

cybertec69 said:


> Wishful thinking, this will not happen in our lifetime, LOL.


C'mon cyber, Sydney uber has it all figured out.


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## SydX (Sep 8, 2014)

The next $40 billion startup company has just begun


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...2-11e4-bcc4-e8141e5eb0c9_story.html?tid=sm_tw


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## Orlando_Driver (Jul 14, 2014)

Uber is going to partner up with Skynet !


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## Cooluberdriver (Nov 29, 2014)

chi1cabby said:


> The "$3.00 - $3.50 per mile being charged for UberX now" was from a report titled Disruptive Mobility by Barclays Auto Analyst Bryan Johnson.
> So much for grounding an analyst report in factual numbers!


He thought it was uber black lol


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

chi1cabby said:


> *Uber hard at work on effort to replace drivers with machines*


Someone should tell Travis that he will have to own those cars, pay for their upkeep, warehousing, etc., on an international scale, that, indeed, it won't be cheaper to offer a driverless car.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Showa50 said:


> Once a these machines start hitting people and property real drivers will be in demand again. That is if this hype ever gets off the ground.
> 
> I doubt these machines will have the 'balls' to cut 6 lanes of traffic because you have to get to the other side and have to make people stop to do it.


Is the driverless car going to have enough brains to take express lanes when there is traffic, and know when they can exit them?

Cars get dirty during the course of the shift, -- a driver can clean his car on the fly, a driverless car will have to be directed to a garage.

What if the previous rider pukes in the car?


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Sydney Uber said:


> With the amount of regulatory bias for driverless cars around tthe world that I didnt know about till I read your linked article, the day is getting closer than I thought. Fancy the United Nations getting involved in this development and pushing for world wide standards and systems to accelerate its development! They have the attitude the sooner they are on the road, the fewer people will be hurt or killed.
> 
> Last year a European car manufacturers group said all of its members felt that driverless cars will be fully operational on the roads by 2022. Google shot back 2018. I think Google are right.


They won't replace UberBLACK or UberSUV, for some people it's not about money.


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## IndyDriver (Nov 6, 2014)

Oscar Levant said:


> What if the previous rider pukes in the car?


The car gets 1 star ratings for rest of the night.

I'd love to know how Uber expects an operating costs of 44cpm when a $20,000 car costs around that. I see these driverless cars as cheaply made to compensate for the cost of electronics...and in turn probably not as safe in an accident as most passenger cars. Still going to cost substantially more than the cars Drivers are using now.

Last, how is the computer going to handle the GPS errors? Wrong way on one ways, thru streets that aren't thru streets, and so on. Plus all the other points already mentioned here.


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## LifeBeforeUber (May 18, 2015)

Check out _Hot Tub Time Machine 2_ to get an idea how this will work. Movies tell you what it is being prepped in a lot of ways.


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## ATX 22 (Jun 17, 2015)

I have enjoyed your repartee about the driverless cars. Here's what I haven't seen mentioned.

How will the car react to vandalism? No driver, therefore no one to stop pax from destroying the interior.
Who will stop vandals from stealing the wheels, drive train body parts, etc.
Driverless Ubers will no doubt be the nastiest, dirtiest form of transportation on the planet. 
I give the first go round of driverless vehicles about a week before they are up on blocks in various parts of major cities.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

ATX 22 said:


> I have enjoyed your repartee about the driverless cars. Here's what I haven't seen mentioned.
> 
> How will the car react to vandalism? No driver, therefore no one to stop pax from destroying the interior.
> Who will stop vandals from stealing the wheels, drive train body parts, etc.
> ...


That's easy, if a driverless vehicle senses it is being vandalized, peed on, thrown up in etc. It will become one giant stun gun....


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