# Self-Driving Cars Excite The Industry, But They're Not Yet Ready For Prime Time



## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwin...re-not-yet-ready-for-prime-time/#4b1c58551609

_NOV 27, 2016 @ 05:54 AM _
_Neil Winton_

There has been much-fevered talk about the imminence of self-driving cars, leaving the impression with the public that it won't be very long before the automobiles we buy don't even have steering wheels or pedals.

This has been fuelled by the car manufacturers themselves as they swap overblown rhetoric about the progress being made thanks to their engineer's ingenuity and the massive sums committed to these projects.

. . .

But the most important "fact" to emerge from the meeting was that fully-autonomous cars won't be available for up to 15 to 20 years , according to BMI Research analyst Anna-Marie Baisden.

. . .

"The timeline for adoption depends on what level of autonomy and what level of penetration. We already have driver assist features such as parking assist and autonomous braking being gradually rolled out in new vehicles, and we have fully autonomous cars in the testing stages on the road. To some extent, then, you can say they are already here. However, in terms of having widespread adoption of fully autonomous cars, we believe it could be up to 15 to 20 years," Baisden said.

. . .​


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## elelegido (Sep 24, 2014)

Well... HELLO?!? 15-20 years is what's been said on this forum ever since the press chugged down Uber's PR bullshit about "launching" self driving cars in Pennsylvania. Good to see the media has now had time to think about it and reached the same conclusions. though.


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## Gung-Ho (Jun 2, 2015)

Next week. A million autonomous cars hit the streets in all major cities....next week!


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

Gung-Ho said:


> Next week. A million autonomous cars hit the streets in all major cities....next week!


Isn't it amazing what engineers can do with those surplus Samsung Galaxy Note 7s?


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## Gung-Ho (Jun 2, 2015)

WeirdBob said:


> Isn't it amazing what engineers can do with those surplus Samsung Galaxy Note 7s?


I didn't say it was going to be a flawless introduction. There will be casualties...an acceptable amount for science sake.


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## Jerm89 (Nov 24, 2016)

Agenda 2030. Globalism


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## ABC123DEF (Jun 9, 2015)

Sometimes I wonder what the rush for all this tech is. Maybe we need to take a step back and sniff the roses and live each day as if it were our last. Once all the self-driving cars get here, then what? We try to rush to the next big thing to erase more people's ability to earn a living? Let's slow our perverbial roll and pump our friggin brakes and breathe a little.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

It says widespread adoption will be 15-20 years. I would be shocked if businesses like Uber weren't using them in less than 10 years. The only reason for it taking 15-20 years at this point would be government protecting people that drive for a living. The amount of programming and engineering manpower dedicated to making this a reality is insane.


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## Jerm89 (Nov 24, 2016)

ABC123DEF said:


> Sometimes I wonder what the rush for all this tech is. Maybe we need to take a step back and sniff the roses and live each day as if it were our last. Once all the self-driving cars get here, then what? We try to rush to the next big thing to erase more people's ability to earn a living? Let's slow our perverbial roll and pump our friggin brakes and breathe a little.


Exactly. I love flowers and candles call a puss but those r the simple things that can make u feel human. Who wants the world to run on public transportation? If u wana get deep then being a human could be looked frownly upon 20 years from now. U hear once in a while on news they gonna have microchip implants soon. Transhumanism is next thing after this. As who gonna afford to eat and drink all jobs will be AI. Also then the elites would control all other essential. Just look as technoligy has gotten better but its hard to get work and food prices skyrocketed in past 10 years. Im gonna still have a car as if a storm earthquake or big fire comes i dont have to wait for my robot car to come but never does cuz its yoo dangrous


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

ABC123DEF said:


> Sometimes I wonder what the rush for all this tech is. Maybe we need to take a step back and sniff the roses and live each day as if it were our last. Once all the self-driving cars get here, then what? We try to rush to the next big thing to erase more people's ability to earn a living? Let's slow our perverbial roll and pump our friggin brakes and breathe a little.


Or change and adapt. The great thing about tech is it is one of the few areas where you can get a good paying job without spending a ton of money or investing 4 years in a degree. It is wide open to anyone willing to learn. It is up to the people of this country whether we will be the ones to fill those jobs or if we will have to keep importing tech workers.


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## ABC123DEF (Jun 9, 2015)

Not everybody has the acuity for tech work. Everybody has different talents and abilities. We weren't designed to all do the same thing. What society is?


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## Jerm89 (Nov 24, 2016)

The future is gonna be jist like the movie demolition man. U can already see it. Uber is tech company but treats us like complete shit. Find loop holes to make us npt be employees so we dont get inssurance and lie to public about how we get tips with in our checks. How stupid is that for people to think we get tips? Do their bosses give them tips? Hahaha. Alot of grime out there


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

ABC123DEF said:


> Not everybody has the acuity for tech work. Everybody has different talents and abilities. We weren't designed to all do the same thing. What society is?


Definitely, but basic programming is not rocket science and they need people on a lot of different levels and in a lot of different areas. I know people in my life that I am trying to get into programming. They complain about their jobs, they complain about their pay, but I can't get them to take a simple coding test to see if they would even like it. There is a free program here in St. Louis that teaches people software development and then helps them get a job with their partner companies once they are ready. We are talking about Boeing, Monsanto, MasterCard, etc., but they don't want to try. They don't want to change or adapt to get what they want, they want it handed to them. We all know what uber is and where it is headed. If people aren't spending this time preparing for the inevitable, whose fault is it? I'm not going to put my future or fate in the hands of uber.


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## WeirdBob (Jan 2, 2016)

colio said:


> It says widespread adoption will be 15-20 years. I would be shocked if businesses like Uber weren't using them in less than 10 years. The only reason for it taking 15-20 years at this point would be government protecting people that drive for a living. The amount of programming and engineering manpower dedicated to making this a reality is insane.


The amount of programming and engineering manpower REQUIRED to making this a reality is insane.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

WeirdBob said:


> The amount of programming and engineering manpower REQUIRED to making this a reality is insane.


Agreed, but it is happening whether we like it or not and everyday it gets closer to reality. The Budweiser truck delivery in Colorado and the driverless Ubers currently being tested in Pittsburgh should tell people how close they are getting and how motivated they are.


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## Jerm89 (Nov 24, 2016)

colio said:


> Agreed, but it is happening whether we like it or not and everyday it gets closer to reality. The Budweiser truck delivery in Colorado and the driverless Ubers currently being tested in Pittsburgh should tell people how close they are getting and how motivated they are.


Well their at it they can tell us "we picking your president, u gotta take unknown vaccins for ur kids, u can only have certin flags at certin hights, and woman and men have to share same bathrooms (in carolinas). Let the government and big buisnesses do everything. I cant wait till im in assistaded house with food stamps stuck just trying to survive as the AI took our jobs. I cant wait till im jobless in fridgebox just barely scratching by!


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

WeirdBob said:


> http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwin...re-not-yet-ready-for-prime-time/#4b1c58551609
> 
> _NOV 27, 2016 @ 05:54 AM _
> _Neil Winton_
> ...


Yes, this is all probably true. Most self-driving cars will probably have human controls to start. Widely spread use of _personally owned_ SDCs with no human controls will take a long time.

What isn't being said is this has nothing to do with TNC SDCs and trucks. They will come first and probably soon. Trump chose a very business friendly Transportation Secretary.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

ABC123DEF said:


> Sometimes I wonder what the rush for all this tech is. Maybe we need to take a step back and sniff the roses and live each day as if it were our last. Once all the self-driving cars get here, then what? We try to rush to the next big thing to erase more people's ability to earn a living? Let's slow our perverbial roll and pump our friggin brakes and breathe a little.


The other argument is as prices plummet through automation, you won't need to work full time any more to have the same standard of living or better. Which would you prefer?


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

colio said:


> It says widespread adoption will be 15-20 years. I would be shocked if businesses like Uber weren't using them in less than 10 years. The only reason for it taking 15-20 years at this point would be government protecting people that drive for a living. The amount of programming and engineering manpower dedicated to making this a reality is insane.


Saving 1.2 million lives a year is insane?

Uber is an unknown but many other companies will have them operating as TNCs in 4 or less years most likely.

The government is all republican dominated. I wouldn't put any hope into them slowing or stopping any of this. Politicians on both sides of the aisle are probably lining up with their hands out. Prepare thyself.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

WeirdBob said:


> http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwin...re-not-yet-ready-for-prime-time/#4b1c58551609
> 
> _NOV 27, 2016 @ 05:54 AM _
> _Neil Winton_
> ...


We will have t.v. that decides what we watch before we get self driving cars.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

WeirdBob said:


> Isn't it amazing what engineers can do with those surplus Samsung Galaxy Note 7s?


Y


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> The other argument is as prices plummet through automation, you won't need to work full time any more to have the same standard of living or better. Which would you prefer?


They will kill us all before giving us food stamps ! We will be sending kids to farming college with the Amish !


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Saving 1.2 million lives a year is insane?


What on earth are you talking about?


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> The other argument is as prices plummet through automation, you won't need to work full time any more to have the same standard of living or better. Which would you prefer?


They will kill us all before giving us food stamps !


Jerm89 said:


> The future is gonna be jist like the movie demolition man. U can already see it. Uber is tech company but treats us like complete shit. Find loop holes to make us npt be employees so we dont get inssurance and lie to public about how we get tips with in our checks. How stupid is that for people to think we get tips? Do their bosses give them tips? Hahaha. Alot of grime out there


1 nice solar flare !
All robots can Die !


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

Also, republicans are bought off by businesses just as much as Democrats. Why do you think things like Ethanol are still produced? Drivers and truck drivers are a huge block of voters. My guess is that most truckers voted for Trump. If trump is willing to put 35% taxes on businesses that go overseas, he is willing to slow "liberal" technology to save jobs. He is not a free market kind of guy.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

colio said:


> What on earth are you talking about?


I read:



colio said:


> The amount of programming and engineering manpower dedicated to making this a reality is insane.


As saying it was insane to do it. I see what you meant now.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

tohunt4me said:


> They will kill us all before giving us food stamps !
> 
> 1 nice solar flare !
> All robots can Die !












We will just work less more likely and also be subsidised in some way.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> I read:
> 
> As saying it was insane to do it. I see what you meant now.


Gotcha, yeah, I was just using it as a figure of speech. I am all for it.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

colio said:


> Also, republicans are bought off by businesses just as much as Democrats. Why do you think things like Ethanol are still produced? Drivers and truck drivers are a huge block of voters. My guess is that most truckers voted for Trump. If trump is willing to put 35% taxes on businesses that go overseas, he is willing to slow "liberal" technology to save jobs. He is not a free market kind of guy.


That's a good point. When you run on "creating jobs", you may be inclined to listen to the complaints. I don't know though, the SDC side is probably the largest and best financed combined effort ever undertaken by corporations. Trump doesn't have the legal authority to do anything about SDCs, but that never stopped Obama or other presidents, so, no idea.

Congress can be bought pretty easily, but will Trump go along?


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> That's a good point. When you run on "creating jobs", you may be inclined to listen to the complaints. I don't know though, the SDC side is probably the largest and best financed combined effort ever undertaken by corporations. Trump doesn't have the legal authority to do anything about SDCs, but that never stopped Obama or other presidents, so, no idea.
> 
> Congress can be bought pretty easily, but will Trump go along?


Yeah, who knows what we are in for. As usual, hope for the best, prepare for the worst.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

I remember hearing on a couple of occasions that the driving profession employs the greatest number of people in this country. Not sure if that is true, but it probably isn't far off. They would definitely have to consider the implications of widespread corporate adoption in a short period of time. As much as I am for moving forward, it could have some devastating effects if done all at once. Also, they are politicians and that is a lot of votes.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> We will just work less more likely and also be subsidised in some way.


90% of the population is considered " useless eaters".
Do you consider yourself part of the 10% ?
They will thin the herd on a massive scale.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> That's a good point. When you run on "creating jobs", you may be inclined to listen to the complaints. I don't know though, the SDC side is probably the largest and best financed combined effort ever undertaken by corporations. Trump doesn't have the legal authority to do anything about SDCs, but that never stopped Obama or other presidents, so, no idea.
> 
> Congress can be bought pretty easily, but will Trump go along?


That's how UBER sold itself.
As a " JOB CREATOR"


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## ABC123DEF (Jun 9, 2015)

Uber...thanks so much for this job you've created?


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

ABC123DEF said:


> Uber...thanks so much for this job you've created?


Transhumanist Traitors to the Human Race !


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> Saving 1.2 million lives a year is insane?
> 
> Uber is an unknown but many other companies will have them operating as TNCs in 4 or less years most likely.
> 
> The government is all republican dominated. I wouldn't put any hope into them slowing or stopping any of this. Politicians on both sides of the aisle are probably lining up with their hands out. Prepare thyself.


What the hell you talking aboy, "1.2 million lives"? Even if you could assure to 100% there would never be another traffic accident it will take 30 years to save that many lives. I am betting that taking that self drive technology and putting it into fighting cancer would save lot more lives over 30 years.

The tech jobs? Just think, if we took the American engineers off self drivers and put them to work on other projects, we may not need so much overseas tech help.

The Budweiser demo was a joke. Known road, known destination, ideal driving conditions, no exceptions. The vehicle didn't need a decision tree.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

2Peaks said:


> The Budweiser demo was a joke. Known road, known destination, ideal driving conditions, no exceptions. The vehicle didn't need a decision tree.


Lol, were they supposed to test it on an unfamiliar winding road?

The 1903 version of your argument would be, big deal, the Wright brothers only went 900 ft, what a joke. Meanwhile, in about a decade, planes were flying over a mile high and being equipped for military use.


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

2Peaks said:


> Even if you could assure to 100% there would never be another traffic accident it will take 30 years to save that many lives.


1.2 million deaths _worldwide_. This is a global phenomenon, not just US. You're correct, 100% will never happen. Let's compromise at 1.175M per year? 1.5M?

Of course, that's not even considering the millions of serious injuries or the combined costs to society and insurance costs.



2Peaks said:


> I am betting that taking that self drive technology and putting it into fighting cancer would save lot more lives over 30 years.


Because robotics engineers are great at curing diseases? I did not know that.



2Peaks said:


> The Budweiser demo was a joke. Known road, known destination, ideal driving conditions, no exceptions. The vehicle didn't need a decision tree.


Yes, it was their first demo. Maybe it may take a few to perfect it?


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## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Just putting this out there but iphone was first introduced in june 2007. Hasnt been 10 years since apple first came out. Since then look how fast AI capabilities have accelerated. Cellphones first started in mid 70s but werent popular till mid 90s. Back then parents still had control of their kids so as even in early 2000s kids with phones was still small. Now technoligy is moveing faster then ever and being lazy. 

1 big outlook on our future is the great space race. We go to the moon and now dont bother too go.The say money it shouldnt matter as how much money does our country waste on stupid shit? Now as for the moon landing and conspiracy theories idk if its real or not ive looked into it and talked to many people on both sides on the coin.

Its all about "safety" aka control. Now i just looked into samsung galaxy s8 y is that they have no headphone jack? I hate apple cuz its all about apple. Android is all about customization but if galaxy follows behind apple then whats going to be the difference? Then u gonna have to use samsung charger samsung headphones ect. Ford GM are working on ride share and dropping private production in 2022 to do a world of "renting". I think 2017 is gonna see the year of people finally wakeing up. U also cant forget about mass sensorship online. I believe its cnn baseically saying its not real unless we report it. Im not likeing whats ahead and if trumps the real deal then thats awsome but my gut says he might do more harm and it might not be entirely his fault.


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

Ramszzzz, you are a Tesla man, aren't you! 

Your worldwide example can be countered in a handful of words ... Not in your lifetime. The U.S. has 33,000 deaths and is basically the most industrialized country with 330,000,000 people. I don't know the population of the continent of Africa, or, the traffic fatalities (don't want to look it up), but I am betting you aren't going to get the numbers you are projecting on that continent or all the others, save maybe, Antarctica.


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> Of course, that's not even considering the millions of serious injuries or the combined costs to society and insurance costs.
> 
> Because robotics engineers are great at curing diseases? I did not know that.
> 
> Yes, it was their first demo. Maybe it may take a few to perfect it?





RamzFanz said:


> 1.2 million deaths _worldwide_. This is a global phenomenon, not just US. You're correct, 100% will never happen. Let's compromise at 1.175M per year? 1.5M?
> 
> Of course, that's not even considering the millions of serious injuries or the combined costs to society and insurance costs.
> 
> ...


so far as using the technology for bio medicine, I did say "technology". I had intended to say technology dollars. My bad. 
However, robotic engineering is important to the fields of medical research. Additionally, the electrical/mechanical/chemical engineers coming out of our universities are smart as a whip. Making the leap to biomedical engineering not out of the question. And has to be a hell of a lot more rewarding.


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

colio said:


> Lol, were they supposed to test it on an unfamiliar winding road?
> 
> The 1903 version of your argument would be, big deal, the Wright brothers only went 900 ft, what a joke. Meanwhile, in about a decade, planes were flying over a mile high and being equipped for military use.


No, not at all. Flight was a dream going back over 1000 years. And countless people died trying to achieve that. i don't think self driving cars have been dreamed about that long, have they?


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

2Peaks said:


> No, not at all. Flight was a dream going back over 1000 years. And countless people died trying to achieve that. i don't think self driving cars have been dreamed about that long, have they?


I said nothing about dreams, it clearly has to do with the quick, practical application and advancement of a technology soon after its first small success.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

Its ok that you don't think it is going to happen or that you think a truck driving itself a hundred miles isn't a big deal. I just disagree. Time will tell who is right


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

colio said:


> Its ok that you don't think it is going to happen or that you think a truck driving itself a hundred miles isn't a big deal. I just disagree. Time will tell who is right


I didn't say it isn't going to happen. It will happen to some extent. I question the justifications for it ... Is it really needed. 
What is beyond it?

And, yes, your flying analogy is useless. It was 1000 years of dreaming and scheming that drove mankind to fly higher, fly faster, and fly further. Why dream of a self driving car? If your only dream is of saving lives ....

And no, I am not impressed with a truck being driven 100 miles on a slot car track. If we can fly a drone 500 miles and drop it on top of a terrorist's moving car, the truck thing is like a Tyco set.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

2Peaks said:


> I didn't say it isn't going to happen. It will happen to some extent. I question the justifications for it ... Is it really needed. .


Apparently smarter people than you think there is a justification for it.



2Peaks said:


> And, yes, your flying analogy is useless. It was 1000 years of dreaming and scheming that drove mankind to fly higher, fly faster, and fly further. Why dream of a self driving car? If your only dream is of saving lives ....
> .


And once again the point flies straight over your head (pun intended). What made it possible were advancement made in a decade by engineers and inventors, not 1000 years of dreaming. As for dream of saving lives, I am not sure what you are talking about. The drive is money and market domination. Not sure what world you are living in, but money and desire for market share is what makes things happen in large scale these days. The dream just gets it started.



2Peaks said:


> And no, I am not impressed with a truck being driven 100 miles on a slot car track. If we can fly a drone 500 miles and drop it on top of a terrorist's moving car, the truck thing is like a Tyco set.


Well if you aren't impressed, it must not be a major feat at all then. As I said, time will tell who is right, there is no need to get emotional about your position.


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

colio said:


> Apparently smarter people than you think there is a justification for it.
> 
> And once again the point flies straight over your head (pun intended). What made it possible were advancement made in a decade by engineers and inventors, not 1000 years of dreaming. As for dream of saving lives, I am not sure what you are talking about. The drive is money and market domination. Not sure what world you are living in, but money and desire for market share is what makes things happen in large scale these days. The dream just gets it started.
> 
> Well if you aren't impressed, it must not be a major feat at all then. As I said, time will tell who is right, there is no need to get emotional about your position.


Emotional? Do you know what that means? Guess I am just not so easily impressed as you must be with slot cars.

What drove the engineers to make that decade of achievement? 
Your analogy is just foolishness. If you must use a technology example, look up the invention of the Laser.

Which segues to the justification. If those smarter people have communicated it, direct me to the link. Because I have asked, why? Outside of reducing fatal accidents I haven't heard a compelling reason. If someone can tell me one I will double my holdings of auto company shares.

Do you have one to share? What is your vision? if you don't have one, don't bother to reply.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

You are exhausting, I am smarter than you and I am communicating it to you. Here is the link you requested

https://uberpeople.net/threads/self...ady-for-prime-time.121507/page-3#post-1795995

scroll to the bottom of page three, it is where I tell you. Doubling your holding of $0 will still give you $0 by the way.


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## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

2Peaks said:


> I didn't say it isn't going to happen. It will happen to some extent. I question the justifications for it ... Is it really needed.
> What is beyond it?
> 
> And, yes, your flying analogy is useless. It was 1000 years of dreaming and scheming that drove mankind to fly higher, fly faster, and fly further. Why dream of a self driving car? If your only dream is of saving lives ....
> ...


I agree. Im not impressed with AI. We cant even make real hoverboards like in back to the future whats that stupid board with wheels that keep blowing! We have been dreaminv to not jist fly but to explore vast space. What happened to moon landing? Was that real or not? If its real then we should already be colonizing the moon and going to send some people to mars but we not. The past 30 years its more of lets strive to be lazy and live in VR. Smh.


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

colio said:


> You are exhausting, I am smarter than you and I am communicating it to you. Here is the link you requested
> 
> https://uberpeople.net/threads/self...ady-for-prime-time.121507/page-3#post-1795995
> 
> scroll to the bottom of page three, it is where I tell you. Doubling your holding of $0 will still give you $0 by the way.


That's a link? I was expecting a scientific journal or something.

Come on kid, what is YOUR vision?

I guess I won't have to divest my BRK shares after all. No need to double up on auto companies yet, though they do pay dividends.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

Lol divest your BRK shares? You are an Uber driver.


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## 2Peaks (Sep 19, 2016)

colio said:


> Lol divest your BRK shares? You are an Uber driver.


18 holes of golf costs around $50-$60 in San Diego. Uber gets me the green to pay those fees.


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## colio (Nov 25, 2015)

Of course, lol


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## Jermin8r89 (Mar 10, 2016)

Just think i can go 400 miles on a tank for $40. The same useing uber is atleast $400. So if we going all self driveing i better only be paying pennies for miles


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## Gung-Ho (Jun 2, 2015)

What would be truly ironic is if Ramzfanz seeing the first SDC driving down the street stood in the road and offered his hand to shake it much like Ford Prefect in Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy except instead of being pushed aside by an Arthur Dent stands there and the SDC malfunctions and runs him over thus becoming the first pedestrian casualty of an SDC.


Disclaimer * This post is strictly for illustrative purposes meant in humor and is not in any way intended to wish harm on another human being.*


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