# Honda says autonomous cars won’t be ready until 2030 at the earliest, despite what Apple and Google



## Rivmage (Oct 15, 2015)

Honda says autonomous cars won't be ready until 2030 at the earliest, despite what Apple and Google may claim

http://www.news.com.au/technology/i...google-may-claim/story-fnjwucvh-1227584020244


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## LAsouthpaw (Oct 24, 2015)

Sounds about right I've been saying to everybody that it's going to be at least 10 years so yeah sounds good to me


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

Maybe not Honda but someone in Japan is trying for 2020.

http://qz.com/538758/japan-is-build...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


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## Casuale Haberdasher (Dec 7, 2014)

Rivmage said:


> Honda says autonomous cars won't be ready until 2030 at the earliest, despite what Apple and Google may claim
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/technology/i...google-may-claim/story-fnjwucvh-1227584020244


POST # 1/Rivmage: "Ahoy!"& Welcome
to the UP.Net Forums
from Mostly Dark...overnight...Marco
Island, on Florida's Wild SSW Coast.

Thank You for this Hyperlinked News
story originating "Down Under". I under-
stand that a Threadstarting Tool that
"pops up" prior to Posting brings up the
5 Most Recent Similar/Identical articles...
for you to compare...to see if you're inad-
vertantly duplicating another's efforts.

This "Honda 2030" Topic has been Posted
previously...here...although perhaps NOT
in the "News" Forum. This is mentioned
as a Courtesy...a call for Awareness, if you
will...not to dissuade you.

With the diminishing time that Our #1
Notable, chi1cabby , has remaining
to devote to "NewsMeister"ing, I would
urge you to follow in his Tradition that
began 17.2 months ago, and, with nearly
EIGHTY-FIVE HUNDRED News Threads
offerred, has, more than ANYONE, made
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Thanks chi1cabby !
Bison Admires.
Bison Inspires!


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Rivmage said:


> Honda says autonomous cars won't be ready until 2030 at the earliest, despite what Apple and Google may claim
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/technology/i...google-may-claim/story-fnjwucvh-1227584020244


Good article. More people should listen to Honda.

*In the lead-up to the 2015 Tokyo Motor Show, the autonomous car expert for Honda, Yoichi Sugimoto, says it will be "at least" 2030 before a car can completely drive itself.*


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

That video is something, first of all the car was programmed to ride on the track, and the guy has his hands hovering over the steering wheel which must be uncomfortable and annoying.



observer said:


> Maybe not Honda but someone in Japan is trying for 2020.
> 
> http://qz.com/538758/japan-is-build...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


Trying and buying.


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## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Just wait until states start banning these until the tech is 100%.

Just wait until the first pax is killed in a self driving Uber car even if a drunk driver hits them you know the program is gonna be put on hold.


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

Bump. Toyota and Honda agree about a long timeframe before SDCs make an impact in transportation.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

Rivmage said:


> Honda says autonomous cars won't be ready until 2030 at the earliest, despite what Apple and Google may claim
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/technology/i...google-may-claim/story-fnjwucvh-1227584020244


Never mind apple and google the REAL player in the SDC space is the Tomato


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

Looks like Yoichi Sugimoto has egg on his face since he was off by 29 years.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Looks like Yoichi Sugimoto has egg on his face since he was off by 29 years.


RamzFanz good to see you back.

Please detail for me what exactly "SDCs being here, now" means to you?

Because to me it means if a car I could buy at the dealer has the AV feature (for times when I wanna set the gps and fall asleep) or, if a taxi biz is going to be created, one that truly rivals uber.

There is certainly a lot happening today with SDCs but So far, none of those things are. And if you ask me when I would say "decades"

So... do you consider beta testing and early rider programs to mean that "SDCs are here now"? Because I don't.

So what DO you believe then?


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

still not seeing any noticeable SDC fleets in kirkland wa despite being in the area practically every day


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

heynow321 said:


> still not seeing any noticeable SDC fleets in kirkland wa despite being in the area practically every day


That's because for all the pro-SDC bs the truth is they are nowhere near ready.

If they were you'd see them on every corner like you see.... Uber's on every corner


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

iheartuber said:


> RamzFanz good to see you back.
> 
> Please detail for me what exactly "SDCs being here, now" means to you?
> 
> ...


Hey brother, yeah, I had to take a hiatus. I'm rehabbing a house.

When will SDCs be here? I'm not defining it as a benchmark having to do with commerce, I'm defining it as a technological reality. There were none and now there are. I consider them here because they work and are in use by the invited public but, for the sake of usefulness, I would say they are really here when they go public in the coming 38 days.

Now that they are here, they are going to scale up. The scale-up has too many variables for me to predict. Manufacturing time, funding, how many SDC players and when do they enter, regulations, disruptors like unions, defeating most weather conditions as they have rain, etc. I am confident these will all be overcome within a few years though. The wildcard to me is regulations. Safety and a new mass market vs current jobs. Which side is the politician's bread buttered on? I could see politicians slowing the progress if it gets out of hand.

It took the automobile about 13 years to all but replace the horse on the road and that was in the 1910's and 20's, IIRC.

If SDCs are as disruptive as autos were, and they should be, I wouldn't be shocked at all if most human drivers are all but replaced in the coming 10 years. Especially when the economics reach a tipping point where it's cheaper to not own a car. That was the point that people switched to autos from horses en masse.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Hey brother, yeah, I had to take a hiatus. I'm rehabbing a house.
> 
> When will SDCs be here? I'm not defining it as a benchmark having to do with commerce, I'm defining it as a technological reality. There were none and now there are. I consider them here because they work and are in use by the invited public but, for the sake of usefulness, I would say they are really here when they go public in the coming 38 days.
> 
> ...


Do you see my point that yes, even if they are here but are pretty much just beta testing then they're not "really" here?

I use the Segway example a lot but it's a good analogy. Yes, it's here, but 3 people bought one... so who cares?

Besides, every SDC lover i see is not just talking about beta testing they're talking about full on revolution. THAT, even you admit, has "many variables" to challenge it.

I think what most SDC lovers (including you?) believe is that "scaling up" as you put it will be a cake walk.

I don't know how many times I have to explain that it will not be.


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

RamzFanz said:


> Hey brother, yeah, I had to take a hiatus. I'm rehabbing a house.
> 
> When will SDCs be here? I'm not defining it as a benchmark having to do with commerce, I'm defining it as a technological reality. There were none and now there are. I consider them here because they work and are in use by the invited public but, for the sake of usefulness, I would say they are really here when they go public in the coming 38 days.
> 
> ...


sdcs are still not here, nor will they ever be


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## RamzFanz (Jan 31, 2015)

uberdriverfornow said:


> sdcs are still not here, nor will they ever be


Oh, no, they're here. And they will go to the general public before the end of Oct.



iheartuber said:


> Do you see my point that yes, even if they are here but are pretty much just beta testing then they're not "really" here?


They will be available by app to the general public before the end of Oct, IMHO, so it's not going to be a beta test. The beta tests are over.



iheartuber said:


> I use the Segway example a lot but it's a good analogy. Yes, it's here, but 3 people bought one... so who cares?


Remember when no one wanted a smartphone? This is that. I never looked at the Segway, a tiny company with limited vision, as serious. If you aren't taking this seriously, you're making a huge misjudgment.



iheartuber said:


> Besides, every SDC lover i see is not just talking about beta testing they're talking about full on revolution. THAT, even you admit, has "many variables" to challenge it.


No, the revolution is here, it just won't match every naysayer's litmus test. They aren't autonomous. They won't be everywhere. But they will damn well sure take Uber driver jobs in urban areas, soon.



iheartuber said:


> I think what most SDC lovers (including you?) believe is that "scaling up" as you put it will be a cake walk.


Scaling up will be just as hard as all of the hard things they've already done. I'm going to go with the winning team on this until they let me down.



iheartuber said:


> I don't know how many times I have to explain that it will not be.


Not only will it be, it is.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

lol god I’ve missed ramz. I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone with a bigger disconnect from reality.


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

RamzFanz said:


> Oh, no, they're here. And they will go to the general public before the end of Oct. They will be available by app to the general public before the end of Oct, IMHO, so it's not going to be a beta test. The beta tests are over.


IMHO, if they go to app right now they will face a series of issues that are too numerous to list but I've already mentioned them before. Most SDC lovers have poo-poo'd this idea so at this point all I can do is say "fine. Don't listen to me. Let it happen and see it with your own eyes."



RamzFanz said:


> Remember when no one wanted a smartphone? This is that. I never looked at the Segway, a tiny company with limited vision, as serious. If you aren't taking this seriously, you're making a huge misjudgment.


See above. I'm not taking this seriously for an entire list of logistical and business reasons, not just pulling the naysaying out of my butt.



RamzFanz said:


> No, the revolution is here, it just won't match every naysayer's litmus test. They aren't autonomous. They won't be everywhere. But they will damn well sure take Uber driver jobs in urban areas, soon.


Again, there's nothing I can do to convince you except to say wait for it to happen and see for yourself. But suffice it to say that uber drivers are fine for a while IMHO.



RamzFanz said:


> Scaling up will be just as hard as all of the hard things they've already done. I'm going to go with the winning team on this until they let me down.


And which winning team is that? Google (aka Waymo)? The team with so many failures under their belt? Everything from google glass to the pixl phone. The only reason why they're not belly up is because the search engine/data mining/advertising arm of theirs is so successful it can literally fund a ton of failures. Prepare to add Waymo to that list.


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## observer (Dec 11, 2014)

heynow321 said:


> lol god I've missed ramz. I don't think I've ever seen someone with a bigger disconnect from reality.


I have, at least three members on this site.


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

observer said:


> I have, at least three members on this site.


you can't make a claim like that without naming names


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

heynow321 said:


> you can't make a claim like that without naming names


Quack!!


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

heynow321 said:


> lol god I've missed ramz. I don't think I've ever seen someone with a bigger disconnect from reality.


That's 'cause there isn't one.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

RamzFanz said:


> Oh, no, they're here. And they will go to the general public before the end of Oct.


SDC is an exercise is missed deadlines. Anyone can make predictions; that SDC will be able to do this, that and the other by x date. However, by defintion, fully autonomous SDC will "be here" when I can pull out my smartphone and have a fully autonomous SDC with no human driver "be here" outside my door. I have yet to see any convincing estimate of when that will be.


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## HotUberMess (Feb 25, 2018)

If they aren't fully autonomous, they aren't SDCs.

They're _driver assist_.

Wait this needs to be bigger.

*They're only driver assist.*


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

HotUberMess said:


> If they aren't fully autonomous, they aren't SDCs.
> 
> They're _driver assist_.


Yeah, it's a question of semantics. Changing the inferred meaning of SDC from "cars that can drive themselves without a human driver", which is what most people understand the term to mean, to "cars that can sometimes drive themselves under supervision or in limited clearly defined areas" is a bit of a copout. But it does allow the SDC evangelists a climbdown attempt without losing too much face.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Who has built MORE cars ?
Google
Or Honda ?


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## HotUberMess (Feb 25, 2018)

The Gift of Fish said:


> Yeah, it's a question of semantics. Changing the inferred meaning of SDC from "cars that can drive themselves without a human driver", which is what most people understand the term to mean, to "cars that can sometimes drive themselves under supervision or in limited clearly defined areas" is a bit of a copout. But it does allow the SDC evangelists a climbdown attempt without losing too much face.


I believe this qualifies as a bait and switch lol


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

"S.D.C. is an Exercise in Missed Deadlines "- Gift of Fish

Kind of like an Uber I.P.O. ?


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

tohunt4me said:


> "S.D.C. is an Exercise in Missed Deadlines "- Gift of Fish
> 
> Kind of like an Uber I.P.O. ?


I don't think that Uber has released any firm targets for an IPO


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

HotUberMess said:


> If they aren't fully autonomous, they aren't SDCs.
> 
> They're _driver assist_.
> 
> ...


Everything about SDC is smoke and mirrors.

The really funny part is when you press an SDC lover on when exactly something specific and somewhat necessary will actually materialize they all suggest it will be "within weeks from today."

Riiiiiiiiiight


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## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

iheartuber said:


> Everything about SDC is smoke and mirrors.
> 
> The really funny part is when you press an SDC lover on when exactly something specific and somewhat necessary will actually materialize they all suggest it will be "within weeks from today."
> 
> Riiiiiiiiiight


Weeks? Or maybe next decade!!

Honda's estimate of 2030 is much more realistic than all the hype we hear from other sources.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

2019 and they're here. 11 years ahead of schedule. Bravo!

https://www.popsci.com/self-driving-cars-cities-usa


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> 2019 and they're here. 11 years ahead of schedule. Bravo!
> 
> https://www.popsci.com/self-driving-cars-cities-usa


Not quite.

https://uberpeople.net/threads/self-driving-cars-are-a-fraud.306087/
Not a single video ever showing SDC's on the streets driving itself.


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

Autonomous cars seem futuristic, but they're already on the streets.
The very mention of this technology Rattles a fearful minority cursing and condemning inventors & those with foresight, meaningful lives and sense of purpose

https://www.popsci.com/self-driving-cars-cities-usa
Fore the more they protest, the further they fall behind even the youngest of elementary aged children


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Autonomous cars seem futuristic, but they're already on the streets.


Great, so find us videos showing them on the streets.

Til then...

https://uberpeople.net/threads/self-driving-cars-are-a-fraud.306087/


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## UberLyftFlexWhatever (Nov 23, 2018)

A person unable to navigate the internet to answer inquiries is expected to reject twenty first century advancements
and In Turn ignored & ridiculed by many

petit homme Au revoir


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> A person unable to navigate the internet to answer inquiries is expected to reject twenty first century advancements
> and In Turn ignored & ridiculed by many
> 
> petit homme Au revoir


A person unable to find any videos whatsoever showing SDC's but keeps posting a link to an article alleging they are somehow on the streets needs to see this article...

https://uberpeople.net/threads/self-driving-cars-are-a-fraud.306087/


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## iheartuber (Oct 31, 2015)

UberLyftFlexWhatever said:


> Autonomous cars seem futuristic, but they're already on the streets.
> The very mention of this technology Rattles a fearful minority cursing and condemning inventors & those with foresight, meaningful lives and sense of purpose


You are using a weak debate technique.

Are SDCs on the road today? Sure. In what is basically a glorified beta test but ok yes sure.

But no one on UP cares if there's an SDC taxi on the road that gets 3 customers. The question is: will this SDC business become so big (like iPhone big) that it effects Uber?

You are trying to imply that just because they are beta testing today that means they will be iPhone big tomorrow.

Your argument is laughable.


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