# Unemployment and self-driving cars



## hpdriver (Jan 24, 2015)

1) What will be the unemployment rate when we go to full-self driving in all cities?
2) What will the immigrants do, I see around 20-30% of them being taxi-drivers in cities like Minneapolis/Columbus. I see picking for Amazon pays as much, but its more physical work.
3) Will they sit outside the mayor's office and vote them out each election, for taking $$ from self-driving companies? Will the politicians realize unemployment increased due to companies greasing their palms?

I am all for automation. But when it hurts the unemployment rate and increases crime, it can be dangerous : https://voxeu.org/article/relationship-between-job-displacement-and-crime


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## tcaud (Jul 28, 2017)

Full automated driving is unnecessary. Little things like programmed slowdown when you get a certain distance from a vehicle will reduce accidents substantially. At speeds above 40mph automated driving becomes unreliable and will remain so, nothing they can do about service outages or transmission disruptions like rainstorms. Also how does an automated vehicle respond to something like a trailer coming around the bend? A driver might respond by pivoting away, into the ditch... but would an algo? The ultimate problem with self-driving is that businesses are only so motivated to protect the driver. If the driver's death can be pinned on the driver, the car company's responsibility becomes nil... so better leave the driver/occupants put to be decapitated/smashed, than run them into the ditch and risk culpability.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

hpdriver said:


> 1) What will be the unemployment rate when we go to full-self driving in all cities?
> 2) What will the immigrants do, I see around 20-30% of them being taxi-drivers in cities like Minneapolis/Columbus. I see picking for Amazon pays as much, but its more physical work.
> 3) Will they sit outside the mayor's office and vote them out each election, for taking $$ from self-driving companies? Will the politicians realize unemployment increased due to companies greasing their palms?
> 
> I am all for automation. But when it hurts the unemployment rate and increases crime, it can be dangerous : https://voxeu.org/article/relationship-between-job-displacement-and-crime


A war
Or a new Covid -19 
Will Arise to remove excess.


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## Wildgoose (Feb 11, 2019)

hpdriver said:


> 1) What will be the unemployment rate when we go to full-self driving in all cities?
> 2) What will the immigrants do, I see around 20-30% of them being taxi-drivers in cities like Minneapolis/Columbus. I see picking for Amazon pays as much, but its more physical work.
> 3) Will they sit outside the mayor's office and vote them out each election, for taking $$ from self-driving companies? Will the politicians realize unemployment increased due to companies greasing their palms?
> 
> I am all for automation. But when it hurts the unemployment rate and increases crime, it can be dangerous : https://voxeu.org/article/relationship-between-job-displacement-and-crime


You have lost me at #1. There will be no answer coming out for your question.
Full self driving technology is still far away from current time. When full-self driving technology is perfectly good to go, at that time, We will need to worry about personal transport drone. Most of the people can be able to work from home. Or we have our own androids to perform our work. 
So what will people do? 
Answer .... At that time, We all will be fixing drones and Androids and towing breakdown self driving cars from streets.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

Considering that we have made no progress in getting to full automation in the last 5 years,

We weren't 2 years away 5 years ago, is it any more likely that we are two years away now?
https://mashable.com/2015/12/25/self-driving-tesla-2-years/
So how long until we have fully autonomous cars?

How long?

Because I'd be shocked if we were two years. From the day they actually put the things on the market I'll believe that we are two years away. Because that's about how long it will take for them to become ubiquitous after the launch day. Two years for people to wait and see how they really work and get them as they still owe money on the cars they had before.

And that's once the product is on the market.

Guess what?

After completing the technology and proving it?

That's a 2-5 year process to start designing a car until it's in the showroom. My suspicion is that a self driving car will be on the far side of it but i'll use the middle of the road in order to be "fair".

So let's honest here, if we are 2 years away from a self driving car that really means we are 4-7 years away from getting a production model on the streets.

So...

2024-2027 assuming we actually get _there_.

So reality is that 2 years away really means 4-7 years away. But that's only if two years is really accurate. Most people with any brain cells are saying 10+ years, which is really 12-15 years for a production vehicle.

So when will we really have an SDV?

my best guess (having done the research into vehicle design and development timeframes) is 2032-2037.

However if the 10 year estimate is really 15 years we are now shifting it to 2037-2042.

And just like that we have pushed the ACTUAL deployment of a self driving car out past my retirement age and i no longer give 2 sheets about it.

But it's all a moot point, as like I've said the estimates for when we'll have an SDV on the road is exactly the same as it was 5 years ago...

2 years away.

2 years away on this tech is just like &#8230; checks in the mail, I'll tip you in the app, he's not going to throw up, I'll just be two minutes.

The moment i hear it, I know it's horse shit.


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## NicFit (Jan 18, 2020)

SDCs are 10-20 years away, the hardware is still cloud based which means that you have to have high speed internet to use a SDC. Until they are self sufficient they will be slow and unreliable. Like it was mention we will get invitations in assisted driving.

As for when they do arrive SDC will never fully replace a human driver, they will replace pool but any higher levels will require human assistance. People want help loading and unloading their junk, small talk instead of a car that’s empty, directions and advice of the local area and other things you just can’t get from a SDC. There will always be some human drivers


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## TheDevilisaParttimer (Jan 2, 2019)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> Considering that we have made no progress in getting to full automation in the last 5 years,
> 
> We weren't 2 years away 5 years ago, is it any more likely that we are two years away now?
> https://mashable.com/2015/12/25/self-driving-tesla-2-years/
> ...


Uber made no progress in the last 5 years(they all smoke and mirrors)

Google went from level 3 autonomous to level 4 autonomous.

Uber SDC and Tesla are only level 2 autonomous. They are horrible examples on sdc progress.

Uber and Tesla are full of loud unrealistic deadlines and promises. Meanwhile Google is quietly do all the work and making all the breakthroughs.

From the looks of things expect autonomous parking lot driving(summon vehicle) and autonomous highway driving to launch first. People would pay an additional $10-15k for those alone.

Once you start seeing this then you will then know if full autonomy is 10 years away. If you don't see these features launch first then 10,20 or God knows how many years away.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

TheDevilisaParttimer said:


> Uber made no progress in the last 5 years(they all smoke and mirrors)
> 
> Google went from level 3 autonomous to level 4 autonomous.
> 
> ...


All i know is that we werent there 5 years ago, we arn't there now, and it takes 5 years to get a new vehicle from the drawing board to the dealership. Then another 3-5 years until they are making up a sizable number of cars on the market.

How long have hybrids been around?

They are just now really common.


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## TheDevilisaParttimer (Jan 2, 2019)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> All i know is that we werent there 5 years ago, we arn't there now, and it takes 5 years to get a new vehicle from the drawing board to the dealership. Then another 3-5 years until they are making up a sizable number of cars on the market.
> 
> How long have hybrids been around?
> 
> They are just now really common.


Yea but SDCs aren't new vehicles. They are the same old vehicles with new computer hardware and software.

The development cycle is that of computer science which takes decades.


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## bethswannns (Mar 22, 2020)

hpdriver said:


> 1) What will be the unemployment rate when we go to full-self driving in all cities?
> 2) What will the immigrants do, I see around 20-30% of them being taxi-drivers in cities like Minneapolis/Columbus. I see picking for Amazon pays as much, but its more physical work.
> 3) Will they sit outside the mayor's office and vote them out each election, for taking $$ from self-driving companies? Will the politicians realize unemployment increased due to companies greasing their palms?
> 
> I am all for automation. But when it hurts the unemployment rate and increases crime, it can be dangerous : https://voxeu.org/article/relationship-between-job-displacement-and-crime


China knows how to stop criminals and get them captured.. Just ask China. As technologies progress, AI will bound to take over every aspects of our lives.






Full Automation is still a super long way to go.. won't be here for another 80-100 years.. you can safety uber until you retire. Trust me on this.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

I don’t know enough about the subject matter I make a real guess.


What I’m seeing is that a new car is going to take 5 years to develop from paper.


And if your using these cars for-hire it has to work 100%.

Drunk (and less so blind) people will use these services.

It has to be 100% level 5 or it’s worthless for-hire.

If a drunk CAN override it they will, and they’ll cause a huge mess.


So we are talking no steering wheel no pedals.


Anything less and you won’t be able to trust drunks in them, making it useless at peak hours. 


Why invest in something for a for-hire vehicle if it’s not any good for peak hours?



So personally... i suspect s 5 year development of the car once they get the tech done:


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## Johnny Mnemonic (Sep 24, 2019)

We haven't even been able to retrain the poor buggy-whip drivers.

_They see me rollin'...they hatin'._


http://imgur.com/QfqrKM6


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## UberApfel (Jul 5, 2020)

hpdriver said:


> 1) What will be the unemployment rate when we go to full-self driving in all cities?
> 2) What will the immigrants do, I see around 20-30% of them being taxi-drivers in cities like Minneapolis/Columbus. I see picking for Amazon pays as much, but its more physical work.
> 3) Will they sit outside the mayor's office and vote them out each election, for taking $$ from self-driving companies? Will the politicians realize unemployment increased due to companies greasing their palms?
> 
> I am all for automation. But when it hurts the unemployment rate and increases crime, it can be dangerous


Most of the riders I have wouldn't be able to use an autonomous Uber. They don't even know how to put a correct address in their phones or show up on time. 80-95% of the population tends to 'appeal to complexity'; a fallacy. Uber has already seen the writing on the wall and switched to being a logistics company rather than a tech company.

I hope your magical utopia comes soon but I don't see where complaining about lost jobs as a result of your magical utopia gets you. For every problem solved you get four more as a reward. When autonomous cars are actually functioning for-profit vehicles you'll be able to go down to CVS/Aetna to get your existential crisis fix along with your cheetos and you'll feel better.


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## hpdriver (Jan 24, 2015)

@UberApfel get some burn cream from CVS while you are at it since your butt hurts. You haven't answered my question about unskilled immigration.


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## jeanocelot (Sep 2, 2016)

hpdriver said:


> 1) What will be the unemployment rate when we go to full-self driving in all cities?
> 2) What will the immigrants do, I see around 20-30% of them being taxi-drivers in cities like Minneapolis/Columbus. I see picking for Amazon pays as much, but its more physical work.
> 3) Will they sit outside the mayor's office and vote them out each election, for taking $$ from self-driving companies? Will the politicians realize unemployment increased due to companies greasing their palms?
> 
> I am all for automation. But when it hurts the unemployment rate and increases crime, it can be dangerous : https://voxeu.org/article/relationship-between-job-displacement-and-crime


Of course it can be dangerous; this why I like the idea of Guaranteed Income and other forms of socialistic redistribution. To outlaw automation is to be stupid like the Luddites.



UberApfel said:


> Most of the riders I have wouldn't be able to use an autonomous Uber. They don't even know how to put a correct address in their phones or show up on time. 80-95% of the population tends to 'appeal to complexity'; a fallacy. Uber has already seen the writing on the wall and switched to being a logistics company rather than a tech company.
> 
> I hope your magical utopia comes soon but I don't see where complaining about lost jobs as a result of your magical utopia gets you. For every problem solved you get four more as a reward. When autonomous cars are actually functioning for-profit vehicles you'll be able to go down to CVS/Aetna to get your existential crisis fix along with your cheetos and you'll feel better.


Let me get this straight. You are banking on the continued demand for human ants on the fact that pax are so stupid that they can't figure out how to enter in the proper address?


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## tcaud (Jul 28, 2017)

People under the influence are quite stupid.


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## Trafficat (Dec 19, 2016)

Eventually when there is enough automation, UBI can actually really be a thing. UBI is unsustainable though right now primarily because there is extremely high demand for low cost labor and robots are more expensive and work less well than hiring someone minimum wage.

Automation means more work gets done for less humans doing them. Whether the government creates UBI or not, I think the net effect will be the same. Less hours of labor will yield more goods and services. The future may not be promising for the least skilled of people who want to work, but I think it is only a small percentage of humans that are too unintelligent to find work in the future, and I personally feel they will mostly have friends and organizations that can support them. If the government does not create UBI, I predict corporations will do something similar for selfish reasons.

When it becomes really cheap to sustain human life, sustaining a large number in anticipation of some future gamble may not be out of the realm of reason. Maybe the corporations will require an annual tribute competition from their sponsees, and while they will mainly garner thank you letters, but one out of very 1000 tributors will tribute something more than valuable enough to pay for the other 999, like some viral video that will result in the rare wage earner spending some hard earned dollars on that corporation.

One thing robots may never really be good at is human bonding. At the end of the day, we want to bond with people that are like us. A human's true value in the future is likely not his ability to perform repetitive tasks, but his ability to relate to other humans. We want human bartenders, human strippers, human servants, etc. We watch human football players right? We don't watch robofootball. Actually, that would be awesome to see robofootball, but the novelty would wear off. People want to see real humans play.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

Trafficat said:


> Eventually when there is enough automation, UBI can actually really be a thing. UBI is unsustainable though right now primarily because there is extremely high demand for low cost labor and robots are more expensive and work less well than hiring someone minimum wage.
> 
> Automation means more work gets done for less humans doing them. Whether the government creates UBI or not, I think the net effect will be the same. Less hours of labor will yield more goods and services. The future may not be promising for the least skilled of people who want to work, but I think it is only a small percentage of humans that are too unintelligent to find work in the future, and I personally feel they will mostly have friends and organizations that can support them.
> 
> One thing robots may never really be good at is human bonding. At the end of the day, we want to bond with people that are like us. A human's true value in the future is likely not his ability to perform repetitive tasks, but his ability to relate to other humans. We want human bartenders, human strippers, human servants, etc.


Why have human strippers when we can have bimbots?

The sex bot tech is ever improving and i think we'll have a viable bimbot much sooner than we have a working driverless car.

Personally thou i doubt that humans will be smart enough to work Self driving for-hire vehicles to get around.

Last day I worked I had a cab fare at a 711, well the customer put the address in wrong and I went to the 711 rather than the wrong address

A machine wouldn't know that the address was wrong just looking at the fare, and the drunktard human wouldn't know why the car never showed up.

One tiny little issue and that guys cab would have gone to nowhere remotely close enough to be able to find it. And yeah he was drunk enough that I knew that was the cause. But he did manage to stumble the block and a half from the bar to get cigarettes so he wasn't THAT drunk.


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## Trafficat (Dec 19, 2016)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> Why have human strippers when we can have bimbots?


A bimbot appeals to me like anime girls appeal to me. Neat, but no replacement for the real thing.


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## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

It will be herky jerky unsteady uncomfortable ride.... expect sudden stops for simple turns and it will be out of the thin air.
Jobs will be lost in the retail and warehouse side.


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