# What are your thoughts on Autonomous vehicles replacing you as a driver



## Driveroptimization (May 27, 2017)

I am curious to find out what the community thinks about Uber's & Lyft's expressed strategic goals of replacing drivers with autonomous vehicles


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## ChortlingCrison (Mar 30, 2016)

never happen


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## Victorvnv (Sep 5, 2016)

I think uber and all similar services will die as soon as they become reality. I use uber sometimes when for example I'm going out and I will be drinking or if I go to downtown sf and there is no parking there.
If sdc become reality I won't use uber or taxi no more- I will just buy my own sdc to drive me anywhere I want and then will make it to go park itself somewhere while waiting. 
I don't get why would anyone use an uber self driving car when they can just buy their own and it will be all clean and still much cheaper to them- all they have To do is pay for the car and the gas...


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## heynow321 (Sep 3, 2015)

The technology is a joke. Come back in 15 years and maybe we can talk


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Despite the many naysayers, SDC will happen, but it is impossible to say how fast. Alpha test models are already on the road today in many cities and the number of cities is growing. 

The rollout will be gradual, over a number of years. There will be a long period during which human drivers and SDCs coexist. Of course, the SDCs will get preferential treatment and driver pay will decrease further. This will pressure more human drivers to find more lucrative work. The number of SDCs in any given market and the number of markets served by SDCs will steadily increase.

Personally, I have not yet reached the point where decreasing pay motivates me sufficiently, but that point is not far off. The legislature in my region, Connecticut is about to allow SDC trials in 4 major cities.


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## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

Driveroptimization said:


> I am curious to find out what the community thinks about Uber's & Lyft's expressed strategic goals of replacing drivers with autonomous vehicles


I don't think DC's are going to replace drivers, for a long time. a lot of people are not going to want them. Some will. but, the first time someone is killed in one, one that doesn't have a driver in it, then we'll see what happens. if I hired an Uber, I would want a driver, and I can think of a lot of reasons why I'd rather have a human behind the wheel. things come up, you need to talk to the driver. In a DC, it's going to be up to the driver to input into a screen on the back of the front seat, and this is more cumbersome for riders, and many people are not that tech savvy. Younger riders will probably not have an issue with it, once it's worked out all the kinks. but things come up, that will confound a driverless car. If there are no pings, where do the cars go? Do they just drive around the city, waiting for a trip? Do they park? where do they park? In a metered spot? In traffic jams, are they going to know to take the express lane? If they take the express lane, will they know where to exit to make the freeway exit (my GPS doesn't have this data, I have to eyeball the terrain ) ? I think they are going to create problems, and they are going to have a tough time taking over completely. Once, I pulled into a hotel, but there was construction, and we were not allowed into the entrance we normally take, and the valet rerouted us to a new makeshift entrance down the street. How would a DC handle this? What about gated communities requiring a gate code? I'd say about 25% of my pick up addies are vague, wrong, or there is something about them requiring my texting or calling the rider. Many times, the GPS sends me up an ally, and I know better to ignore the gps, and just go to the front. What does a DC do? Can DC's see potholes? Animals darting in front of the car? low lying obstructions ( like blown off tires from trucks ) mattresses fallen from trucks ?

also, for a midsize car, it costs 57 cents or so per mile to operate a vehicle. This number goes even high for cars covered by the more expensive commercial insurance. That's every mile, including dead miles. In San Diego, the rate is about $1.10 per mile, but only paid miles. If paid miles is 60%, then the cost of a paid mile is going to be close to a dollar, so how is Uber going to make money? The whole point of driverless cars was to make the rate even less than they are now, but they haven't factored in the cost of maintaining the vehicle fleet, the warehouses, the mechanic garages, the technicians, added admin staff, payroll, for hundreds of thousands of cars worldwide. They think they can lower the rate below what they are charging now? I think this is pure fantasy. If they can't lower the rate, then what is the point? Why would a rider pick a driverless car over one with a driver in it if it is not cheaper? Safer? as soon as someone gets hurt or killed, all that matters is public perception.

I have my doubts.



Maven said:


> Despite the many naysayers, SDC will happen, but it is impossible to say how fast. Alpha test models are already on the road today in many cities and the number of cities is growing.
> 
> The rollout will be gradual, over a number of years. There will be a long period during which human drivers and SDCs coexist. Of course, the SDCs will get preferential treatment and driver pay will decrease further. This will pressure more human drivers to find more lucrative work. The number of SDCs in any given market and the number of markets served by SDCs will steadily increase.
> 
> Personally, I have not yet reached the point where decreasing pay motivates me sufficiently, but that point is not far off. The legislature in my region, Connecticut is about to allow SDC trials in 4 major cities.


I think they are going to discover that it costs more than the current rate to operate a DC vehicle. In San Diego, there's a good reason taxis charge twice as much as Ubers, because taxi companies knew years ago that the cost of operating a vehicle gobbles up most of that fare, and Uber thinks they can operate a vehicle cheaper than a Taxi? How? The whole motivation for driverless cars is to make the fares cheaper. They are not going to be cheaper, because the current rate does not compensate drivers for the cost of operating their cars, and the money they make is an illusion, it is actually just a conversion of auto-equity into cash, not income. When a driver has to drive for a few years, then the real cost of operating a car becomes felt. ( replacing the car, rebuilding a motor transmission, but when it comes to replacing the car, the 300,000 mile Uber car is not going to be worth much ). All of the trials have drivers behind the wheel. When these things are truly "driverless", then come and talk to me. Until then, it's fantasy. When all the cars are electric, and they can talk to the road, talk to signs, other cars, and there are no cars with drivers in them, then it might happen. But, before this, it's driverless cars among cars with drivers, humans who are unpredictable, and the mix isn't a good one, if you ask me.


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## Rat (Mar 6, 2016)

I plan to use the driverless car to get to and from work. I normally take a dump before going to work. In the future, I will take that morning dump on the way to work in the car. This will allow me an extra ten minutes a day to sleep


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## Gung-Ho (Jun 2, 2015)

I'm planning in retiring in 10 years regardless. Bring em on!


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Rat said:


> I plan to use the driverless car to get to and from work. I normally take a dump before going to work. In the future, I will take that morning dump on the way to work in the car. This will allow me an extra ten minutes a day to sleep


There will be an additional fee for this service en route. 


Gung-Ho said:


> I'm planning in retiring in 10 years regardless. Bring em on!


In 10 years, automation will have advanced to the point that a robot will be retiring in your place. You will need to keep working so that the robot can retire in proper comfort.


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## Trafficat (Dec 19, 2016)

My thoughts are: "good luck!"


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## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

Autonomous vehicles cost $125,000 in mass production.
3 years of maintenance $50,000
1 accident for every 15,000 rides $1,000,000 cost in insurance.

Humans undercutting autonomous vehicles will get $2 a mile and 35 cents a minute.

Bring it on!


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Mole said:


> Autonomous vehicles cost $125,000 in mass production. 3 years of maintenance $50,000. 1 accident for every 15,000 rides $1,000,000 cost in insurance. Humans undercutting autonomous vehicles will get $2 a mile and 35 cents a minute. Bring it on!


Funny thing. Your Autonomous vehicles costs are probably way too low for the initial models, except for insurance. Major Corporations often self-insure large fleets of vehicles. Expect those costs to come down faster then computer technology, 10%+ a year, every year. Plus SDCs have a huge financial advantage over computers, resale value. Just like rental car companies do today, after 3-5 years of continuous use, Autonomous vehicles will be sold to 3rd parties at a fraction of the original cost to recover some of that cost.

Just like Uber is happy to take a loss today to achieve a goal, prices for PAX rides will be set under the human equivalents. Plus Uber will give them preferential pings. There will remain a need for human drivers for several years to handle, less profitable and more problematic trips.


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## Gung-Ho (Jun 2, 2015)

Maven said:


> There will be an additional fee for this service en route.
> 
> In 10 years, automation will have advanced to the point that a robot will be retiring in your place. You will need to keep working so that the robot can retire in proper comfort.





Maven said:


> There will be an additional fee for this service en route.
> 
> In 10 years, automation will have advanced to the point that a robot will be retiring in your place. You will need to keep working so that the robot can retire in proper comfort.


So you're saying I'm gonna have a robot wife.


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## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

Maven said:


> Funny thing. Your Autonomous vehicles costs are probably way too low for the initial models, except for insurance. Major Corporations often self-insure large fleets of vehicles. Expect those costs to come down faster then computer technology, 10%+ a year, every year. Plus SDCs have a huge financial advantage over computers, resale value. Just like rental car companies do today, after 3-5 years of continuous use, Autonomous vehicles will be sold to 3rd parties at a fraction of the original cost to recover some of that cost.
> 
> Just like Uber is happy to take a loss today to achieve a goal, prices for PAX rides will be set under the human equivalents. Plus Uber will give them preferential pings. There will remain a need for human drivers for several years to handle, less profitable and more problematic trips.


My other thought is will another non robot driving rideshare company rely on only human drivers to undercut uber/lyft I do think that once uber/lyft feel the have the market share and self driving vehicles they will rise prices close to the taxi prices and then bam the humans step in and wipe out the machines.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Gung-Ho said:


> So you're saying I'm gonna have a robot wife.


You should be so lucky! A real wife cannot be programmed to

never nag, talk back, or question how unlikely it is that you are always right.

always cook your favorite meals to perfection instead of insisting on going out because she had a hard day.
never be too tired or have a headache when you want to "make woopie"
always make you feel like the best dancer ever 







Mole said:


> My other thought is will another non robot driving rideshare company rely on only human drivers to undercut uber/lyft I do think that once uber/lyft feel the have the market share and self driving vehicles they will rise prices close to the taxi prices and then bam the humans step in and wipe out the machines.


Uber has shown that they can and do raise prices today to "all the market will bear". That will not change with self driving vehicles. Unfortunately, your brilliant plan to bring down Uber is doomed from the start because Uber has already captured the overwhelming market share.


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## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

Maven said:


> You should be so lucky! A real wife cannot be programmed to
> 
> never nag, talk back, or question how unlikely it is that you are always right.
> 
> ...


That is what the taxi companies said!


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Mole said:


> That is what the taxi companies said!


No comparison. The taxi companies were using 100-year-old, outdated methods that have been basically unchanged since the invention of the radio dispatch system. Uber was a radical departure from the status quo. Uber combined commonly available 21st century technology with an ability to exploit the cracks in existing laws that had previously given taxi companies a monopoly. Your plan tries to beat Uber at its own game, which is doomed because they have years of experience that you do not. Or does your plan also include some yet unmentioned radical departure from the status quo?


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## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

Maven said:


> No comparison. The taxi companies were using 100-year-old, outdated methods that have been basically unchanged since the invention of the radio dispatch system. Uber was a radical departure from the status quo. Uber combined commonly available 21st century technology with an ability to exploit the cracks in existing laws that had previously given taxi companies a monopoly. Your plan tries to beat Uber at its own game, which is doomed because they have years of experience that you do not. Or does your plan also include some yet unmentioned radical departure from the status quo?


The moment Uber/lyft uses 1 automated vehicle owned by the company they will be considered a transport company by a DOT and by local state offices they will be mandated to pay taxes according to all state and federal laws and will be subject to massive competition This is clearly the way things are going to be. Throughout history this is how progress has worked. Most government agency's let them grow then pounce on them for taxes.


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## Maven (Feb 9, 2017)

Mole said:


> The moment Uber/lyft uses 1 automated vehicle owned by the company they will be considered a transport company by a DOT and by local state offices they will be mandated to pay taxes according to all state and federal laws and will be subject to massive competition This is clearly the way things are going to be. Throughout history this is how progress has worked. Most government agency's let them grow then pounce on them for taxes.


You may be correct. No doubt Uber's lawyers are aware of the legal issues and Uber's lobbyists are aware of the political issues. Uber will construct some scheme to both introduce SDCs and continue avoiding being "considered a transport company by a DOT and by local state offices they will be mandated to pay taxes according to all state and federal laws and will be subject to massive competition". Why change a process that has enabled Uber to lose $Billions ever year of operation?


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## Mars Troll Number 4 (Oct 30, 2015)

Considering they Can't get GPS navigation updated to work 100% i'm going to say this is going to be.. nope...


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## Fargle (May 28, 2017)

Mears Troll Number 4 said:


> Considering they Can't get GPS navigation updated to work 100% i'm going to say this is going to be.. nope...


This! I'm often asked this question and the above is my answer.


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