# Forbes Says Steer Clear of Lyft IPO



## MHR (Jul 23, 2017)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/03/14/steer-clear-of-lyfts-ipo/
*Steer Clear Of Lyft's IPO*
David TrainerContributor
Great SpeculationsContributor Group

The first big IPO of 2019 is here. This year could set new IPO records (for size and lack of profits), and it all starts with Lyft (LYFT). The rideshare company is expected to trade within the next few weeks at a market cap between $20-$25 billion.


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## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

Sounds like Forbes got it right.


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## Ride-Share-Risk-Manager (Mar 16, 2017)

Sounds like a lot of us drivers who have expressed similar misgivings should really work as investment and financial analyst and not the idiots who are peddling Lyfdiculous to investors who follow them like sheep into the abyss.


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## B - uberlyftdriver (Jun 6, 2017)

it will be an interesting watch


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## DollarFree (Aug 3, 2018)

Hope all the Shared riders buy into it.


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## Pax Collector (Feb 18, 2018)

Good. Cuz I wouldn't touch their stock with a six mile pole.


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## DollarFree (Aug 3, 2018)

MHR said:


> https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/03/14/steer-clear-of-lyfts-ipo/
> *Steer Clear Of Lyft's IPO*
> David TrainerContributor
> Great SpeculationsContributor Group
> ...


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## Rosalita (May 13, 2018)

Having a hard time recommending a stock for a company that was texting me yesterday that I should go online as it was time for my scheduled ride. Only problem was that schedule pax was picked up and their ride concluded a hour before Lyft texted me. Clearly, Lyft had a hard time adjusting to the "spring ahead" time change on Saturday night and was still sorting it out Wednesday afternoon.

Lyft has two assets. One is questionable. They have their platform and they have their account holders. The platform is a mess.


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## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

I’d like to also hear from securities analysts and a guy like Warren Buffet.

But one thing these assessments leave out and zoom ride past.... people.

It takes people to want to continue to use the service and they discount the power of the current people that literally move the crowd.

We , the drivers, could easily break these platforms in two when our resources are properly organized. 

They act as if it’s a forgone collusion that drivers will want to continue to drive while being treated like garbage.

What if they don’t ?


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## RideshareSpectrum (May 12, 2017)

Sum up Takeaways from Forbes analysis for those unwilling or otherwise unable to read it:

'At the midpoint of that proposed range ($20~$25 BILLION LMAO) Lyft earns my unattractive rating. It shares many of the same characteristics have led me to warn investors away from other recent IPO's: *growing losses, low barriers to entry, poor corporate governance, and an unrealistically high valuation.'*

This poor corporate governance, combined with the unrealistic valuation and total lack of expectation for future profits, suggests that Lyft has little interest in creating long-term value for investors. Instead, *this IPO is a way for employees and early investors to cash out and leave people who buy the IPO holding the bag.'*


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## Ride-Share-Risk-Manager (Mar 16, 2017)

I drive quite a few investment bankers in NYC who live in NNJ and who monitor and analyze the ride share and deilvery companies. I am always astounded at how none of these idiots ever bother to do an ounce of due diligence by speaking to the employees and drivers to see what is really going on at a company. I directed all of them to UP which none of these research analysts had never bothered to even do a Google search on.

The ride share market crash is coming. The only question is who gets screwed. Will it be the venture capitalists who funded them or will it be unwitting private investors who buy the investment bank marketing spin for the IPO.


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## teh744 (Apr 14, 2018)

This is definitely not a long term investment..... more like pump and dump. Kinda like in the movie "Boiler Room"


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

When the president is a con artist what would you expect from multinational corporations?


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## hrswartz (Jan 4, 2019)

AngelAdams said:


> When the president is a con artist what would you expect from multinational corporations?


Take a deep breath... then hold it for 3 days... just sayin'


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

hrswartz said:


> Take a deep breath... then hold it for 3 days... just sayin'


What you don't believe in trickle down economics? Lol


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## hrswartz (Jan 4, 2019)

AngelAdams said:


> What you don't believe in trickle down economics? Lol


What the... What has trickle down economics got to do with the cost of an uber ride in China? that question makes as much sense as yours... Tell you what only hold your breath for 2 days... but I ain't lol...


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## Solid 5 (Aug 24, 2018)

MHR said:


> https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/03/14/steer-clear-of-lyfts-ipo/
> *Steer Clear Of Lyft's IPO*
> David TrainerContributor
> Great SpeculationsContributor Group
> ...


THANK YOU SO MUCH for sharing this article. I am one of the many HERE who can read and understand this. Of course this site does not cater to the uneducated ants that have flooded the streets.

This thread is Reason #52 on UP why I quit rideshare in the last month.


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## Fozzie (Aug 11, 2018)

Anxiously waiting for Lyft to jump in with both feet, only to faceplant and drown in a vast sea of reality and fact. Uber will undoubtedly follow, failing in a much grander fashion, leaving the market open for a company like Didi to walk in, consolidate the remnants of the two, and start the cycle all over again.


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## hrswartz (Jan 4, 2019)

Fozzie who is Didi


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## Solid 5 (Aug 24, 2018)

RideshareSpectrum said:


> Sum up Takeaways from Forbes analysis for those unwilling or otherwise unable to read it:
> 
> 'At the midpoint of that proposed range ($20~$25 BILLION LMAO) Lyft earns my unattractive rating. It shares many of the same characteristics have led me to warn investors away from other recent IPO's: *growing losses, low barriers to entry, poor corporate governance, and an unrealistically high valuation.'*
> 
> This poor corporate governance, combined with the unrealistic valuation and total lack of expectation for future profits, suggests that Lyft has little interest in creating long-term value for investors. Instead, *this IPO is a way for employees and early investors to cash out and leave people who buy the IPO holding the bag.'*


EXACTLY!.....they want to devise a scenario where it's "grab it and slam it"....."get in and get out"......"pump and dump"........whatever you want to call it. They want to pull a Gordon Gekko vs Sir Larry Wildman.

Many years ago I used to have a very expensive sports card collection. I had a friend who bought and sold as well, and he would always talk about "Player X's Rookie Card" which would be worth, say $100, and he would complain how he couldn't sell it. I would ask him "what did you pay for the card?" Most times his answer would be "I got it out of a pack, so $5, got it two weeks ago". I would tell him "so sell it for $50, you are making 10 times your investment", and he ALWAYS would say......."but why, it's worth $100?"...and my answer would ALWAYS be....."it's only worth what someone will pay for it". Same thing with this stock, no one who is smart will buy it for what it will be valued at if they KNOW THEIR NUMBERS. And I cannot believe they will try to sell it to stupid people who just want to buy any stock, if they do the stupid people are sitting in most airport queues not being able to speak or read English.


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

hrswartz said:


> What the... What has trickle down economics got to do with the cost of an uber ride in China? that question makes as much sense as yours... Tell you what only hold your breath for 2 days... but I ain't lol...


I feel like you need a hug.


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## hrswartz (Jan 4, 2019)

ME? whatever...


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

Fozzie said:


> Anxiously waiting for Lyft to jump in with both feet, only to faceplant and drown in a vast sea of reality and fact. Uber will undoubtedly follow, failing in a much grander fashion, leaving the market open for a company like Didi to walk in, consolidate the remnants of the two, and start the cycle all over again.
> 
> View attachment 304594


No... i peronally expect new "start ups" to come in to fill the vaccum and they will fail spectacularlly when they can't get enough drivers (no incentives) and have to charge 50-60% more. (no barrels of money to burn)

Honestly... as the price differential between taxis and ride-shares vanishes (it's the difference is dwindling) we may find the world rolling back to 2009.

I think this whole ride sharing thing was hype powered by investor capital... and sub-cost rides cutting into the existing alternatives. (taxis, black car services, airport parking, car rentals, public transportation, ect)

Personally...

on Uber IPO i'd put my money into the taxi medallion market. Uber/lyft falling apart will cause the medallion prices to skyrocket.


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## mikeslemonade (Jun 25, 2016)

Ehhhh I’m not as bearish as most people or even bullish as some people on Lyft. I’m seeing it somewhere in between. It’s gonna grow steady as they will make more money now without paying bonuses to the driver. 

So basically they’re making 30-35% on every ride while basically there overhead is making the app and customer service. Sure there’s legal costs but that’s an expense on any company. And whatever profit they make would easily cover legal penalties. That’s enough to be a good company that would grow. And then with their partnership with Toyota autonomous cars they will make even more down the line. 

I will be swing trading Lyft once it’s out. There’s much weaker companies I trade than Lyft. I made money off blackberry and Sirius radio. I’m not afraid of Lyft. Their profit margin is too good for it to fail. The only way it would fail is if Uber out prices them to extinction. I’m gonna buy $2500 worth of Lyft stock right off the bat. Risky but it can go up or down. If I lose that’s fine, if I gain that’s good.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

MHR said:


> https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/03/14/steer-clear-of-lyfts-ipo/
> *Steer Clear Of Lyft's IPO*
> David TrainerContributor
> Great SpeculationsContributor Group
> ...


This is a very thorough, well thought-out and well deserved hatchet job on this IPO.


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## EphLux (Aug 10, 2018)

mikeslemonade said:


> Ehhhh I'm not as bearish as most people or even bullish as some people on Lyft. I'm seeing it somewhere in between. It's gonna grow steady as they will make more money now without paying bonuses to the driver.
> 
> So basically they're making 30-35% on every ride while basically there overhead is making the app and customer service. Sure there's legal costs but that's an expense on any company. And whatever profit they make would easily cover legal penalties. That's enough to be a good company that would grow. And then with their partnership with Toyota autonomous cars they will make even more down the line.
> 
> I will be swing trading Lyft once it's out. There's much weaker companies I trade than Lyft. I made money off blackberry and Sirius radio. I'm not afraid of Lyft. Their profit margin is too good for it to fail. The only way it would fail is if Uber out prices them to extinction. I'm gonna buy $2500 worth of Lyft stock right off the bat. Risky but it can go up or down. If I lose that's fine, if I gain that's good.


Sir, you seem to have done little research. Uber also has to pay for a support staff and support expenses and R&D. They are not making any profit and never have.


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## Stevie The magic Unicorn (Apr 3, 2018)

mikeslemonade said:


> Their profit margin is too good for it to fail.


LOL...

Neither company has ever had $1.00 in profits...

They have never had _*any*_ return on investor capital.

Not once in their entire existence have they had a profitable year.

And your missing a huge expense for ride-share companies,

Credit card processing fees, 
and insurance.

Then you have 
Support staff
Refunds
Scams
(uber eats scams)
Green light hubs
Overhead
executive pay
Absurd parties

Then you have money they shouldn't be spending but are..
Lawsuits
Bribes
lobbying (see bribes)
Sign on bonuses
incentives

Last year lyft was almost 1 billion more spent than earned and uber was multi-billion in loses.


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## The Gift of Fish (Mar 17, 2017)

Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> on Uber IPO i'd put my money into the taxi medallion market. Uber/lyft falling apart will cause the medallion prices to skyrocket.


I don't think that UberLyft or rideshare will fall apart - people have got used to and in some way dependent on the service. But the rideshare industry will definitely shrink once the investor cash runs out and they have to fund their operations from revenue alone by raising prices.


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## Solid 5 (Aug 24, 2018)

The Gift of Fish said:


> I don't think that UberLyft or rideshare will fall apart - people have got used to and in some way dependent on the service. But the rideshare industry will definitely shrink once the investor cash runs out and they have to fund their operations from revenue alone by raising prices.


EXACTLY.......how many times will Uber go groveling to some company saying "please fund us MORE". How many have they done it to already, and they still are in the red?


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## RideshareSpectrum (May 12, 2017)

Been i


Solid 5 said:


> EXACTLY!.....they want to devise a scenario where it's "grab it and slam it"....."get in and get out"......"pump and dump"........whatever you want to call it. They want to pull a Gordon Gekko vs Sir Larry Wildman.
> 
> Many years ago I used to have a very expensive sports card collection. I had a friend who bought and sold as well, and he would always talk about "Player X's Rookie Card" which would be worth, say $100, and he would complain how he couldn't sell it. I would ask him "what did you pay for the card?" Most times his answer would be "I got it out of a pack, so $5, got it two weeks ago". I would tell him "so sell it for $50, you are making 10 times your investment", and he ALWAYS would say......."but why, it's worth $100?"...and my answer would ALWAYS be....."it's only worth what someone will pay for it". Same thing with this stock, no one who is smart will buy it for what it will be valued at if they KNOW THEIR NUMBERS. And I cannot believe they will try to sell it to stupid people who just want to buy any stock, if they do the stupid people are sitting in most airport queues not being able to speak or read English.


Been in sales all my life... cut my teeth at a small retail securities firm at 110 Wall St a lifetime or two ago. Believe me when I tell you I know a 'pump and dump' when I see one. This has all the traditional warning signs and then some, except it's potential for fraud so massive and overt to be believed.


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## teh744 (Apr 14, 2018)

Blue horseshoe loves Anacott Steel....


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## dctcmn (Sep 21, 2017)

I think they hit the nail on the head--

1. Low barrier to entry
2. Revenue growth not leading to profits (or even decreasing losses)

The presence of either factor is death for a broker, and that's all Uber and Lyft are.


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## Solid 5 (Aug 24, 2018)

teh744 said:


> Blue horseshoe loves Anacott Steel....


Lol @ "BlueStar Airlines"


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## 2Cents (Jul 18, 2016)

If any one wants... I've got some 
Volks-FÜBEnRon Motors stock to sell you.

Only 187 B for the whole thing.


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

hrswartz said:


> ME? whatever...


Xoxo


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## Foober_Lyftz (Dec 25, 2015)

RideshareSpectrum said:


> Been i
> 
> Been in sales all my life... cut my teeth at a small retail securities firm at 110 Wall St a lifetime or two ago. Believe me when I tell you I know a 'pump and dump' when I see one. This has all the traditional warning signs and then some, except it's potential for fraud so massive and overt to be believed.


Question is, how can a regular Joe make money off this pump and dump?


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## Solid 5 (Aug 24, 2018)

Foober_Lyftz said:


> Question is, how can a regular Joe make money off this pump and dump?


Won't happen..........

Regular Joe's making money off the IPO = new ant drivers making money off driving for Uber.

They will for a short time until the stock craters because of all the smart investors getting in and out. Like new ants thinking they are making money driving until they understand the difference between "gross" and "net" (or until they have to get new brakes or pay the IRS).


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

Foober_Lyftz said:


> Question is, how can a regular Joe make money off this pump and dump?


If you're making money on it, you're not a regular joe. Where do you think the money comes from? The best thing an average person can do is stay away from these blood sucking vultures.


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## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

How do you value a company in the billions when all they do is lose billions each year ? 

It really makes no sense.


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## Solid 5 (Aug 24, 2018)

AngelAdams said:


> If you're making money on it, you're not a regular joe. Where do you think the money comes from? The best thing an average person can do is stay away from these blood sucking vultures.


If you are at the poker table and you are trying to figure out the fish at the table, then you are the fish.


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## Uber_Dubler (Apr 4, 2018)

BeansnRice said:


> I'd like to also hear from securities analysts and a guy like Warren Buffet.
> 
> But one thing these assessments leave out and zoom ride past.... people.
> 
> ...


Markets speak. Warren Buffet's company, Berkshire Hathaway, won't be investing in rideshare companies anytime soon. That's his way of speaking and he is saying, "not worth it".


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## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

uberdriverfornow said:


> How do you value a company in the billions when all they do is lose billions each year ?
> 
> It really makes no sense.


I would suggest * Bernie Madhoff * could answer this question for you.

.


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## JLaw1719 (Apr 11, 2017)

Uber_Dubler said:


> Markets speak. Warren Buffet's company, Berkshire Hathaway, won't be investing in rideshare companies anytime soon. That's his way of speaking and he is saying, "not worth it".


Didn't he try investing in Uber not even a year ago and they declined his deal?


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## majxl (Jan 6, 2017)

Everybody has now its own investment plan (or plans) on how to make money as soon as the IPO is listed...unfortunately the market has notoriously always had a mind of its own witch rarely follows anybody predictions!
Also Uber and Lyft are each starting a road show even as the awaiting listing is for later, and later, with no precise date. Not a good way to spend money unless, maybe, they are trying to lure some interested buyer.


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## RideshareSpectrum (May 12, 2017)

teh744 said:


> This is definitely not a long term investment..... more like pump and dump. Kinda like in the movie "Boiler Room"


Exactly like that, except this 'pump and dump' now has very large sectors of the world economy dependent upon these dirt cheap rides priced well below the actual hard costs of the transportation provided. 
Too important to fail, yet mathematically incapable of delivering profit in the long or short term- if ever. Can you say 'pop'? I knew you could.



Foober_Lyftz said:


> Question is, how can a regular Joe make money off this pump and dump?


Regular joe cannot at first. There's a 180 day lockout period on the IPO shares regular joe gets at the open and a whole lot of volatility before he can purchase more for a better price and short the shit out of Lyft To make any real dough.


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## kdyrpr (Apr 23, 2016)

hrswartz said:


> What the... What has trickle down economics got to do with the cost of an uber ride in China? that question makes as much sense as yours... Tell you what only hold your breath for 2 days... but I ain't lol...


It's likely he believes in forced wealth distribution. Don't you know? It's Republicans and rich people that have forced him to be a minimum wage rideshare driver! Poor fella.


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## Friendly Jack (Nov 17, 2015)

AngelAdams said:


> When the president is a con artist what would you expect from multinational corporations?


Hillary Clinton isn't president, is she?


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## Bulls23 (Sep 4, 2015)

mikeslemonade said:


> I'm gonna buy $2500 worth of Lyft stock right off the bat. Risky but it can go up or down. If I lose that's fine, if I gain that's good.


Quote from the article: "..the only way investors can profit is by selling to greater fools." So true..



The Gift of Fish said:


> I don't think that UberLyft or rideshare will fall apart - people have got used to and in some way dependent on the service. But the rideshare industry will definitely shrink once the investor cash runs out and they have to fund their operations from revenue alone by raising prices.


I think they will fall apart, literally. Profit margins are slim historically in this business. I can see each city having its own 2 to 3 local rideshare apps that will resemble medallion structure. Heck, I can even see the possibility for Uber/Lyft to franchise their operations and cut the losses.


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## BeansnRice (Aug 13, 2016)

Bulls23 said:


> Quote from the article: "..the only way investors can profit is by selling to greater fools." So true..
> 
> 
> I think they will fall apart, literally. Profit margins are slim historically in this business. I can see each city having its own 2 to 3 local rideshare apps that will resemble medallion structure. Heck, I can even see the possibility for Uber/Lyft to franchise their operations and cut the losses.


Somebodys thinkin...... nice work 
Believe it or not ... these options are already being discussed....lol


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

Friendly Jack said:


> Hillary Clinton isn't president, is she?


Nope. But voting for trump meant you screwed yourself. Since you're on here I'm assuming you make under 10 mill a year lol.


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## 1974toyota (Jan 5, 2018)

hrswartz said:


> Fozzie who is Didi


he's a short stop for the NY Yankees



Stevie The magic Unicorn said:


> LOL...
> 
> Neither company has ever had $1.00 in profits...
> 
> ...


Google "Understanding Why Uber Loses Money" Crunchbase, can also apply to lyft
Operating costs sales and marketing
general and adminstative
R&D Operations and support
Miscellaneous


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## Friendly Jack (Nov 17, 2015)

AngelAdams said:


> Nope. But voting for trump meant you screwed yourself. Since you're on here I'm assuming you make under 10 mill a year lol.


No one voted for Trump, you know that.. The Russians hacked everything to defeat Hillary.


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

Friendly Jack said:


> No one voted for Trump, you know that.. The Russians hacked everything to defeat Hillary.


Lol. I like that. The only ones Russians influenced were the idiots that thought trump gave a rats ass about them. Before trump got into office I actually liked him. But that's because I didn't know anything about him. A simple google search was enough to know who trump is. So as far as I'm concerned, I think America needs a trump to wake them up.


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## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Uber_Dubler said:


> Markets speak. Warren Buffet's company, Berkshire Hathaway, won't be investing in rideshare companies anytime soon. That's his way of speaking and he is saying, "not worth it".





JLaw1719 said:


> Didn't he try investing in Uber not even a year ago and they declined his deal?


No, that was Jimmy Buffett of Margaritaville. :smiles:

.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

MHR said:


> https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/03/14/steer-clear-of-lyfts-ipo/
> *Steer Clear Of Lyft's IPO*
> David TrainerContributor
> Great SpeculationsContributor Group
> ...


Would not touch it even as a Penny Stock.

Should have bought Sirius X.M. Stock at 6 cents though . . .


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## Friendly Jack (Nov 17, 2015)

AngelAdams said:


> Lol. I like that. The only ones Russians influenced were the idiots that thought trump gave a rats ass about them. Before trump got into office I actually liked him. But that's because I didn't know anything about him. A simple google search was enough to know who trump is. So as far as I'm concerned, I think America needs a trump to wake them up.


Now, I'm not disagreeing, but there are many Americans, including Trump, who would say, "A simple Google search was enough to know who Google is."


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## AngelAdams (Jan 21, 2019)

Friendly Jack said:


> Now, I'm not disagreeing, but there are many Americans, including Trump, who would say, "A simple Google search was enough to know who Google is."


Don't justify evil by pointing out another.


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## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Google is Biased as Hell !



tohunt4me said:


> Would not touch it even as a Penny Stock.
> 
> Should have bought Sirius X.M. Stock at 6 cents though . . .





tohunt4me said:


> Would not touch it even as a Penny Stock.
> 
> Should have bought Sirius X.M. Stock at 6 cents though . . .


 . . . oops. . .12 cents. My bad memory.


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## June132017 (Jun 13, 2017)

tohunt4me said:


> Google is Biased as Hell !
> 
> 
> 
> ...


No, it did trade for 5 or 6 cent's in 2008/2009. Wasn't that company losing billions at the time though? They were as close to death as they could be. I think they might fail after Howard Stern leaves.

Yup, I was right. They did some weird splits in 2011. I think reverse splits. Whereas you might have 70 shares, but the next day only have 60. They usually do this so that they don't get de listed from the stock exchange. That affected the stock's trading on the charts ever since then. They were definitely below 10 cents.

Check out GSS as they did the same thing recently. Within the last year where they did a reverse split.


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## jFed (Jun 15, 2016)

IPO's are orchestrated for the already well off to get better well off at the expense of the sucker investor who buys post IPO. if it had anything to do with sound business sense or profitability there'd be so few of them. They're all betting on self-driving cars which is still too far off to have an impact in the next 3 to 5 years (if not longer).


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