# Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.

Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


----------



## ashlee2004 (Apr 19, 2019)

You do realize you're using a tabloid as your source, right...?

Also, we haven't avoided the "Italian and Spanish fiasco". Google NYC.


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

ashlee2004 said:


> You do realize you're using a tabloid as your source, right...?
> 
> Also, we haven't avoided the "Italian and Spanish fiasco". Google NYC.


Stop muddying the spin-water with facts.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

ashlee2004 said:


> You do realize you're using a tabloid as your source, right...?
> 
> Also, we haven't avoided the "Italian and Spanish fiasco". Google NYC.


*It will take time to see how this works out.* The NYC issue was started with a super spreader that was in a community outside of NYC that gave covid to 103 people. He also went to his office in NYC and his synogogue. On top of that, the orthodox community didn't shut down their schools.

Time will tell how bad this gets in the rest of the states. * I'm taking the cautious side and remaining in self isolation for another month.*

I also had a teleconference with my md yesterday and he says he believes it has already spread in most of our communities. I'm not saying whether or not to break quarantine. *Just letting people know the original modeling may have been done incorrectly.*


----------



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Good thing Trump wants to kill off all his voters soon and do a mass infection on Easter.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.


I would have posted this directly from the original source, but it's behind a paywall:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate
Looks like more and more experts are expressing their concerns over the misleading numbers making this appear worse than it may actually be.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying *millions *of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.

Logical people have been saying all along that this is dangerous and we should social distance, but this will not kill millions of Americans because we aren't Italy. We were called naysayers and told "just you wait". That was two weeks ago. The gloom & doomers have gotten quieter and quieter in the past few days.


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

BigRedDriver said:


> I would have posted this directly from the original source, but it's behind a paywall:
> 
> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate
> Looks like more and more experts are expressing their concerns over the misleading numbers making this appear worse than it may actually be.


Stanford University latest. Excellent article by multiple experts from last night & shared on our local news stations.

https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/25/covid-19-world-made-ripe-pandemics/


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying *millions *of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.
> 
> Logical people have been saying all along that this is dangerous and we should social distance, but this will not millions of Americans because we aren't Italy. We were called naysayers and told "just you wait". That was two weeks ago. The gloom & doomers have gotten quieter and quieter in the past few days.


It concerns me that, given the numbers that seemed apparent from the start to be highly overstated, why?

I think we can all look at the recent stimulus bill and start to see the reasons.

Who needs to vote on controversial funding when you can lump it into this thing. Possible?


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying *millions *of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.


No one said that: they said that millions of Americans _would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread_. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> No one said that: they said that millions of Americans _would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread_. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.


Which, like I have been saying all along and WHY THOSE NUMBERS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO JUSTIFY OUR RESPONSE. Never, in the history of mankind, do we DO NOTHING.

Good lord.


----------



## tohunt4me (Nov 23, 2015)

Lee239 said:


> Good thing Trump wants to kill off all his voters soon and do a mass infection on Easter.


Only New York & California . . .


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

BigRedDriver said:


> It concerns me that, given the numbers that seemed apparent from the start to be highly overstated, why?
> 
> I think we can all look at the recent stimulus bill and start to see the reasons.
> 
> Who needs to vote on controversial funding when you can lump it into this thing. Possible?


Democrats shoved $350 million for illegal aliens in there.



JohnnyBravo836 said:


> No one said that, Baboon Breath: they said that millions of Americans _would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread_. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.


Nice.
Great time for Random Acts Of Hostility

Be proud



Lee239 said:


> Good thing Trump wants to kill off all his voters soon and do a mass infection on Easter.


How long did it take you to squeeze that one out?

Got buttwipe?



ashlee2004 said:


> You do realize you're using a tabloid as your source, right...?
> 
> Also, we haven't avoided the "Italian and Spanish fiasco". Google NYC.


Such a deep thinker.
"Google NYC"

You do know who to thank, don't you?

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/25/cuomo-coronavirus-china-new-york/


----------



## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".

I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.

Right now as I type this, 3 of my neighbors are quarantined and have tested positive. My mother is in her mid 80's and is in an assisted living facility. Tuesday the first man was removed from the facility, tested positive and died today. Four more removed yesterday and all now in the icu at the hospital. All residents are quarantined in their rooms. So far my mother isn't sick.

If you think this is unique to NY and just because where you live only has 2 or 3 cases you are kidding yourself. You are about 2-3 weeks away from the shit hitting the fan. You will sing a different tune when it affects the people you love. It isn't real till it is.


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

Seamus said:


> People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".
> 
> I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.
> 
> ...


Godspeed.
I wish you, and everyone to be safe.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Seamus said:


> If you think this is unique to NY and just because where you live only has 2 or 3 cases you are kidding yourself. You are about 2-3 weeks away from the shit hitting the fan. You will sing a different tune when it affects the people you love. It isn't real till it is.


It's been real to me for about three weeks now. Again, I'm not sure who these types of comments are aimed at? The spring breakers not taking it seriously in FL?



JohnnyBravo836 said:


> No one said that: they said that millions of Americans _would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread_. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.


People have said that. Some posters on here have predicted, with girlish glee, that this will kill off as many as 2.2 million Americans because muh models.

Remedial reading 101.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Seamus said:


> People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".
> 
> I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.
> 
> ...


You are correct in that the truth will come out as this plays out. *That's why I'm staying in self quarantine for another month to give time for more data to come out. *

Just an fyi, my dr told me yesterday that he believes it is likely that I have covid based on my symptoms. But, he isn't concerned since I'm not obese, diabetic or with high blood pressure. It was a video appointment and he doesn't need me to come in unless I develop breathing problems. I'm not young... may be one of the older ones here, just in overall good condition. And, my last time driving was in February. I don't intend to consider driving again until we know more in about a month.

Good luck to all.

I'm in California and very concerned, but, not as much as I had been in the past.


----------



## Ubertool (Jan 24, 2020)

NoPool4Me said:


> *It will take time to see how this works out.* The NYC issue was started with a super spreader that was in a community outside of NYC that gave covid to 103 people. He also went to his office in NYC and his synogogue. On top of that, the orthodox community didn't shut down their schools.
> 
> Time will tell how bad this gets in the rest of the states. * I'm taking the cautious side and remaining in self isolation for another month.*
> 
> I also had a teleconference with my md yesterday and he says he believes it has already spread in most of our communities. I'm not saying whether or not to break quarantine. *Just letting people know the original modeling may have been done incorrectly.*


Damn , head to the White House with this info , you'll be a hero


----------



## Invisible (Jun 15, 2018)

Look at Hong Kong. They lifted their restrictions and weeks later got a surge of infections.

https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-lift-lockdowns-face-new-waves-covid-19-2020-3?op=1


----------



## SHalester (Aug 25, 2019)

BigRedDriver said:


> WHY THOSE NUMBERS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO JUSTIFY OUR RESPONSE


I think the folks 'in those numbers' would have a different attitude. Yeah?


----------



## Bubsie (Oct 19, 2017)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying *millions *of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.


We haven't seen the peak yet. And they don't allow TV cameras into the ICUs where people are dying in ever growing numbers.


----------



## SHalester (Aug 25, 2019)

Bubsie said:


> And they don't allow TV cameras into the ICUs


....;pretty much in the hospitals itself. HIPAA.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Bubsie said:


> We haven't seen the peak yet. And they don't allow TV cameras into the ICUs where people are dying in ever growing numbers.


So you agree with the millions prediction, Bubsie?


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

SHalester said:


> I think the folks 'in those numbers' would have a different attitude. Yeah?


Please don't take bits of my posts and take those bits out of context, it hurts my "feels" 

But if those "folks" are the imaginary ones contained in the "over 2 million Americans will die from this", they probably don't care, cuz they never existed.


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

Seamus said:


> People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".
> 
> I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.
> 
> ...


Very well stated. Hope mom and those caring for her remain well. Hang in there friend&#128591; .


----------



## Bubsie (Oct 19, 2017)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> So you agree with the millions prediction, Bubsie?


I would say we'll end up in the hundreds of thousands range when it's all done.


----------



## SHalester (Aug 25, 2019)

BigRedDriver said:


> , it hurts my "feels"


but you will be ok, yeah? I'm a big believer in NOT over quoting.
So, you just object to the sky is falling and millions will die? Is that accurate? Because reading your replies, that detail doesn't come out at all.
*Nebraska Case Information*


Total number of cases - 73
Cases that tested negative - 1,584*
_*Numbers now include negative results from NPHL and commercial labs_


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Bubsie said:


> I would say we'll end up in the hundreds of thousands range when it's all done.


*The numbers are difficult to say at this time. We need social isolation for at least another month and can reassess at that point*.

Following shows the damage done to lungs. And, it appears that whatever damage one has may be irreversable.

*Lung damage seen in recently asymptomatic coronavirus patient*
https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/lung-damage-seen-in-recently-asymptomatic-coronavirus-patient/


----------



## DriverMark (Jan 22, 2018)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> those posters who all along have been saying *millions *of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.


Very Chinese of you.......


----------



## Sampson10 (Jun 14, 2019)

Lee239 said:


> Good thing Trump wants to kill off all his voters soon and do a mass infection on Easter.


That's President Trump. Get used to it you have 4.8 years to go. MAGA. Find a cure for your TDS, or just continue to entertain.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

DriverMark said:


> Very Chinese of you.......


Not ALL of authoritarianism is bad!



Bubsie said:


> I would say we'll end up in the hundreds of thousands range when it's all done.


For the US alone? That's an awfully large number. Very tragic. Still nowhere close to 1M.


----------



## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

Bubsie said:


> We haven't seen the peak yet. And they don't allow TV cameras into the ICUs where people are dying in ever growing numbers.


ya 1001 dead in 2 months is an astronomical death count

compared to the 153 deaths each day each year from the common flu


----------



## SHalester (Aug 25, 2019)

..... next we will see how many vehicle deaths per day and compare that. 5, 4, 3, 2,...........


----------



## DriverMark (Jan 22, 2018)

I can see smaller places starting to ramp back up on Trump's timeline. Take where I live in Utah for example, I could see the majority of folks going back to a bit of life after Easter. With warnings of those in the high risk categories should continue to isolate and social distance. 

Even a "Shelter in your county/community". The majority of outbreak are in Salt Lake County and Park City (Summit County). People stay to their counties/communities. Schools, large events, church, etc, already closed for months. But some semblance of life return. If the testing that will show you have or had it comes out and can wide spread test, will know how much herd immunity is already out there.

Of course, this thing seems to change daily. So tomorrow might be a very different story.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

SHalester said:


> but you will be ok, yeah? I'm a big believer in NOT over quoting.
> So, you just object to the sky is falling and millions will die? Is that accurate? Because reading your replies, that detail doesn't come out at all.
> *Nebraska Case Information*
> 
> ...


Over and over we have to read about how we are just hayseeds, Hicks, ******** because we live in less densely populated areas.

We visit New York and other high density areas and it's no wonder to us why pandemics cause such havoc. The lifestyle in New York is custom made for it, and yet, so unprepared when it happens?

Let's see, will the cities that are so adversely affected, empty out? Kinda doubt it. Oh well.


----------



## OldBay (Apr 1, 2019)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


Couldn't something like this be considered "academic terrorism". Publishing grossly incorrect information that alters public policy.


----------



## DriverMark (Jan 22, 2018)

SHalester said:


> ..... next we will see how many vehicle deaths per day and compare that. 5, 4, 3, 2,...........


Right....... People should listen to Cuomo's broadcast from today. How long it takes someone that needs ventilation w/ COVID-19 to come off the ventilator is several weeks. Where normal (non-COVID) is less than a week. Those are folks that need ICU level care. That's the curve we are fighting. Keeping the hospitals from being overrun.

If we can flatten the curve for those needing hospitalization, keeping them from being swamped, and hopefully have a higher survival rate than Italy and Spain. Or go with the "flu is worse crowd", just do nothing and let all those folks die I guess (shrug). I agree the flu is worse, for now. But I'm for keeping it that way.

Flu Burden 2019/20 Season Deaths: 23,000-59,000 --- goes up a minimum of approx 1k a week
Flu Burden 2019/20 Season Hospitalization: 390k-710k

Flu death counts will surely go up in areas where the hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. As there will be "no room at the inn" to handle the flu patients.

It'll be a year or more before we see actual figures of the COVID-19 burden figures. Not just those that died from COVID-19, but those that died indirectly because COVID took resources needed to save lives with other ailments. Hopefully in the US we moved fast enough and now putting enough resources into things that the numbers stay small. It's encouraging to see US manufacturing and businesses kicking in now to help bring needed resources. There is a long list of big business shifting gears to deliver needed products. NYC looking at hotels as possible places to convert to ICU for COVID-19 influx.

well, anyway.....



Valar Dohaeris said:


> Not ALL of authoritarianism is bad!


Especially where population reduction is needed.......


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

BigRedDriver said:


> Please don't take bits of my posts and take those bits out of context, it hurts my "feels"
> 
> But if those "folks" are the imaginary ones contained in the "over 2 million Americans will die from this", they probably don't care, cuz they never existed.


Joe Biden says 150 million Americans were killed by guns.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

DriverMark said:


> Right....... People should listen to Cuomo's broadcast from today. How long it takes someone that needs ventilation w/ COVID-19 to come off the ventilator is several weeks. Where normal (non-COVID) is less than a week. Those are folks that need ICU level care. That's the curve we are fighting. Keeping the hospitals from being overrun.
> 
> If we can flatten the curve for those needing hospitalization, keeping them from being swamped, and hopefully have a higher survival rate than Italy and Spain. Or go with the "flu is worse crowd", just do nothing and let all those folks die I guess (shrug). I agree the flu is worse, for now. But I'm for keeping it that way.
> 
> ...


Not to be argumentative, but historically, pandemics always put stress on healthcare in areas of dense population. And they happen fairly often. And yet they remain woefully unprepared. Even the basics?

I'd be pissed and demand answers. Especially with the high taxes paid there.


----------



## uberdriverfornow (Jan 10, 2016)

SHalester said:


> ..... next we will see how many vehicle deaths per day and compare that. 5, 4, 3, 2,...........


100 a day so far more than this weak ass Covid19 garbage


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Wolfgang Faust said:


> Joe Biden says 150 million Americans were killed by guns.


Quote: "There are roughly 330 million Americans, according to U.S. Census figures. Biden's campaign acknowledged that he had misspoke.

The New York Times reported that more than 33,000 people die in firearm-related deaths in the U.S. every year, which is an annual average compiled from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. That would mean that an estimated 429,000 people were killed on average since the start of 2007 to the end of 2019." end quote

Above from: 
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-150-million-gun-deaths/


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

NoPool4Me said:


> Quote: "There are roughly 330 million Americans, according to U.S. Census figures. Biden's campaign acknowledged that he had misspoke.
> 
> The New York Times reported that more than 33,000 people die in firearm-related deaths in the U.S. every year, which is an annual average compiled from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. That would mean that an estimated 429,000 people were killed on average since the start of 2007 to the end of 2019." end quote
> 
> ...


missed by 149,500.000

That's damn close.


----------



## SFRichard1 (Jul 13, 2019)

ashlee2004 said:


> You do realize you're using a tabloid as your source, right...?
> 
> Also, we haven't avoided the "Italian and Spanish fiasco". Google NYC.


Here's the same thing from the WSJ:

Neil Ferguson is the Imperial College London scientist whose dire virus forecasts helped inspire aggressive measures by authorities in the U.K. and the U.S. On March 16 he co-authored a widely-read reportwhich described COVID-19 as "a virus with comparable lethality to H1N1 influenza in 1918."

Less than ten days after his disturbing report, Mr. Ferguson provided an update to some members of the British parliament on Wednesday. David Adam reports in the New Scientist:



> The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.





> Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK's parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation's response to the coronavirus outbreak.





> He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people's movements make him "reasonably confident" the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

BigRedDriver said:


> missed by 149,500.000
> 
> That's damn close. :smiles:


Biden missed by 149,571,000. Or, is your period supposed to be a comma?


----------



## mbd (Aug 27, 2018)

NY opening schools 3rd week April

Not opening, but want to&#128522;


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

BigRedDriver said:


> I would have posted this directly from the original source, but it's behind a paywall:
> 
> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate
> Looks like more and more experts are expressing their concerns over the misleading numbers making this appear worse than it may actually be.


Another video of interest:
*Dr. Fauci: You don't make the timeline, the virus does*





Sadly, we just don't know how high the numbers will peak out at since we are just at the start here in the US. Regarding NYC, they do have a lot of travelers, which helped create a lot of cases on top of their early superspreader.


----------



## Lee239 (Mar 24, 2017)

Sampson10 said:


> That's President Trump. Get used to it you have 4.8 years to go. MAGA. Find a cure for your TDS, or just continue to entertain.


Trumpers are the ones that he has deranged.


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

Lee239 said:


> Trumpers are the ones that he has deranged.


----------



## Taxi2Uber (Jul 21, 2017)

NoPool4Me said:


> The New York Times reported that more than 33,000 people die in firearm-related deaths in the U.S. every year, which is an annual average compiled from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. That would mean that an estimated 429,000 people were killed on average since the start of 2007 to the end of 2019." end quote


Only 33,000 a year? That ain't nothin'.

From CDC.gov:
_"Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than *480,000 deaths per year* in the United States, including more than *41,000* *deaths* resulting from secondhand smoke exposure."_

And there is a cure!!


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


So . . . a scientific projection is modified in the light of new data. Stop the presses.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> So . . . a scientific projection is modified in the light of new data. Stop the presses.


No new data... simply admitted an error. A huge error....


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

NoPool4Me said:


> No new data... simply admitted an error. A huge error....


The quote in post #43 above says "He said that _expected increases_ _in National Health Service capacity_ and _ongoing restrictions to people's movements_ make him "reasonably confident" the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks." (emphasis added)

So, the capacity increased and restrictions were put on people's movements subsequent to the first projection.

The New Scientist article linked above also states:
_"New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. "That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures," he said."_

See the words "new data"?

Try to hook your cerebral cortex up completely and then go back and read it again.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

*Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model*



JohnnyBravo836 said:


> So . . . a scientific projection is modified in the light of new data. Stop the presses.





NoPool4Me said:


> No new data... simply admitted an error. A huge error....





JohnnyBravo836 said:


> The quote in post #43 above says "He said that _expected increases_ _in National Health Service capacity_ and _ongoing restrictions to people's movements_ make him "reasonably confident" the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks."
> 
> So, the capacity increased and restrictions were put on people's movements subsequent to the first projection.
> 
> Try to hook your cerebral cortex up completely and then go back and read it again.


I've read it several times and we are working under different perspectives. I was focused on the article title where he admits he was wrong. And, I view his mistake as a huge error. No need for you to be so rude.


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

NoPool4Me said:


> *Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model*
> 
> I've read it several times and we are working under different perspectives. I was focused on the article title where he admits he was wrong. And, I view his mistake as a huge error. No need for you to be so rude.


I guess I didn't realize that there is never any reason to go beyond the title of an article and to take the trouble to read any of the actual content in the article. Well, that will save all of us a lot of time in the future.

Can you see why I would find that just incredibly lazy on your part? C'mon.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> I guess I didn't realize that there is never any reason to go beyond the title of an article and to take the trouble to read any of the actual content in the article. Well, that will save all of us a lot of time in the future.
> 
> Can you see why I would find that just incredibly lazy on your part? C'mon.


Lazy? I'm the one that posted the article and I have read it several times.  Yet, I still felt the focus was conveyed properly in the title...

Sweet dreams all....and, stay safe!


----------



## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


Um, Trump didn't stop incoming travel from China until January 30th.

And we already are the largest population in The World of infected. 
The deaths, sadly, are inevitable but we "hopefully" have done enough to flatten the curve such that hospitals don't have to turn new patients away (or simply have to let them die due to lack of assistive care availability) like they did in Italy.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Asificarewhatyoudontthink said:


> Um, Trump didn't stop incoming travel from China until January 30th.
> 
> And we already are the largest population in The World of infected.
> The deaths, sadly, are inevitable but we "hopefully" have done enough to flatten the curve such that hospitals don't have to turn new patients away (or simply have to let them die due to lack of assistive care availability) like they did in Italy.


Ok, that means we have an even longer period of infected people entering the country. I just hope we've done enough to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The lack of testing is a bit frustrating since we have no idea how this disease is actually spreading here.

Time will tell....


----------



## Asificarewhatyoudontthink (Jul 6, 2017)

NoPool4Me said:


> Ok, that means we have an even longer period of infected people entering the country. I just hope we've done enough to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The lack of testing is a bit frustrating since we have no idea how this disease is actually spreading here.
> 
> Time will tell....


Going from 12 to 83000 in a month (that puts on track for doubling every 2.3 days) and that is just based on the few tests being performed at this time.

Imagine how much worse the numbers would be if we actually were trying to find them.

Here in Florida our governor is, from all appearances, trying to stall and make it look better than it is to please his master the "Great" Negotiator.


----------



## Fuzzyelvis (Dec 7, 2014)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


Did you read this part? Sorry, out if order, read second screenshot first


----------



## 1.5xorbust (Nov 22, 2017)

Like earthquakes pandemics aren’t a matter of if but when.


----------



## Seamus (Jun 21, 2018)

NoPool4Me said:


> Another video of interest:
> *Dr. Fauci: You don't make the timeline, the virus does*
> 
> 
> ...


Also, local health officials say the subway system likely contributed to the spread. If you have ever been on a subway in Manhattan you can easily imagine it.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

Seamus said:


> Also, local health officials say the subway system likely contributed to the spread. If you have ever been on a subway in Manhattan you can easily imagine it.


I imagine everywhere which relies on subways, trains and crowded buses will be adversely effected.

Listened to a NYC doctor yesterday say he's afraid as many healthcare workers will be infected on their commute than at the hospital.

Apparently NYC stopped many from running, so the existing trains are crowded.


----------



## Boca Ratman (Jun 6, 2018)

Seamus said:


> Right now as I type this, 3 of my neighbors are quarantined and have tested positive. My mother is in her mid 80's and is in an assisted living facility. Tuesday the first man was removed from the facility, tested positive and died today. Four more removed yesterday and all now in the icu at the hospital. All residents are quarantined in their rooms. So far my mother isn't sick.


Man, I don't even know what to say. I'm not sure how I'd handle the waiting game. Good luck man. Hopefully she stays healthy !


----------



## 2win (Jun 29, 2019)

SFRichard1 said:


> Here's the same thing from the WSJ:
> 
> Neil Ferguson is the Imperial College London scientist whose dire virus forecasts helped inspire aggressive measures by authorities in the U.K. and the U.S. On March 16 he co-authored a widely-read reportwhich described COVID-19 as "a virus with comparable lethality to H1N1 influenza in 1918."
> 
> Less than ten days after his disturbing report, Mr. Ferguson provided an update to some members of the British parliament on Wednesday. David Adam reports in the New Scientist:


And then the prime minister got it...



BigRedDriver said:


> I imagine everywhere which relies on subways, trains and crowded buses will be adversely effected.
> 
> Listened to a NYC doctor yesterday say he's afraid as many healthcare workers will be infected on their commute than at the hospital.
> 
> Apparently NYC stopped many from running, so the existing trains are crowded.


Urban density, culture, lifestyle, demographics, and weather are also all factors in transmission and mortality. And then the governance and healthcare system factor in as well.


----------



## Immoralized (Nov 7, 2017)

Way too early to call anything. Probably have a better idea towards the end of April or it might even be better to just wait until the end of this year really. Kinda impossible to speculate what going to happen this year.

This is only the 1st wave. Got another wave after this and another until they come out with a working vaccine. I don't want to test out the 1st generation of vaccines though "because you know it rashly made". 18-24 months away?

So what happens? The virus dies down a bit and lockdown ends but the virus haven't been completely eliminated and that when the 2nd wave hits all over again and another lockdown is implemented and the airports are closed again.

Highly unlikely the 1st wave is going to kill "millions of people in america" but after 2nd wave hits and then the 3rd wave maybe going to be even a 4th wave before a working vaccine is out. So over the next 2 years that is a high possibility.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Seamus said:


> Also, local health officials say the subway system likely contributed to the spread. If you have ever been on a subway in Manhattan you can easily imagine it.


No doubt about it.... subways may even be worse than Ubers for spreading communicable disease. I am so fortunate not to have to drive during this period.

Uber should have hubs open to give cleaning supplies to those that have to drive.



Immoralized said:


> Way too early to call anything. Probably have a better idea towards the end of April or it might even be better to just wait until the end of this year really. Kinda impossible to speculate what going to happen this year.
> 
> This is only the 1st wave. Got another wave after this and another until they come out with a working vaccine. I don't want to test out the 1st generation of vaccines though "because you know it rashly made". 18-24 months away?
> 
> ...


Agreed... way too early to call how it all ends up without more passage of time. That's why I'm staying in self quarantine for now.

Regarding waves, China may be having another since they just shut down the cinema's again.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/n...zalai&utm_term=hollywoodreporter_breakingnews


----------



## Immoralized (Nov 7, 2017)

NoPool4Me said:


> Agreed... way too early to call how it all ends up without more passage of time. That's why I'm staying in self quarantine for now.
> 
> Regarding waves, China may be having another since they just shut down the cinema's again.


What experts have said a month ago "the ones I've been reading on briefly" the 1st wave is just the tip of the iceberg as the waves to follow are going to be far more deadly. Why? Because people will have a false sense of security when it all dies down and when it all start back up again "which it will" that false sense of security of "I've survived the 1st wave and it wasn't such a big deal" with the more relaxed government lockdowns because the bigger picture is that the world economy cannot be locked out until a suitable vaccine is made if it going to take 18 months or longer!

Businesses need to run and people need to produce goods and food and yes even provide services. The world can't freeze for a couple of years. So the safest time in my opinion would be the 1st wave where it is getting as much media attention and government response. They have that sense of urgency because it new but people and the government cannot be on a heighten sense of emergency and fear for 2 years. That when this virus is going to strike the hardest.

So in my opinion again... I don't think we've seen the worst of this virus has to offer as it been only the 1st introduction wave. The virus been so new it so hard to speculate on much with a tiny amount of data available so far. As that data that is shared around the world freely grows we'll all have a much better picture and understanding of the situation.


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

1.5xorbust said:


> Like earthquakes pandemics aren't a matter of if but when.


Precisely and preparedness was *everything*.
There were so many ways this could have gone wrong.
It's almost as if America was determined to get it wrong.



NoPool4Me said:


> No doubt about it.... subways may even be worse than Ubers for spreading communicable disease. I am so fortunate not to have to drive during this period.
> 
> Uber should have hubs open to give cleaning supplies to those that have to drive.
> 
> ...


It's unfortunate people are counting on U.S. Gov't and the U.S. Gov't is reporting things are improving because China & Korea are opening back up. Wait...China is the country that loosed the demon virus to begin with and then set about trying to conceal the truth. 
Reports from China "look promising" and they say they have no more new reports of Covid19. 
How can we trust info from a _propaganda machine_?


----------



## 197438 (Mar 7, 2020)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


Confirmation bias much? Since you are young and likely to survive, you should just keep driving.



NoPool4Me said:


> *It will take time to see how this works out.* The NYC issue was started with a super spreader that was in a community outside of NYC that gave covid to 103 people. He also went to his office in NYC and his synogogue. On top of that, the orthodox community didn't shut down their schools.
> 
> Time will tell how bad this gets in the rest of the states. * I'm taking the cautious side and remaining in self isolation for another month.*
> 
> I also had a teleconference with my md yesterday and he says he believes it has already spread in most of our communities. I'm not saying whether or not to break quarantine. *Just letting people know the original modeling may have been done incorrectly.*


Take a look at the heat map of occurrences. This was brought in at every major international airport with direct flights to Europe and Asia. Take two doses of Chloroquine and get back to work.



Wolfgang Faust said:


> Democrats shoved $350 million for illegal aliens in there.
> 
> https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/25/cuomo-coronavirus-china-new-york/


McConnell inserted a provision for sunscreen manufacturers (the largest being based in Kentucky). Maybe it's because people suffering from skin cancer are immunosuppressed?


----------



## Bubsie (Oct 19, 2017)

Wolfgang Faust said:


> Joe Biden says 150 million Americans were killed by guns.


The other 200 million were wounded.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

EastBayRides said:


> *Confirmation bias much? Since you are young and likely to survive, you should just keep driving. ha ha I'm elderly according to my age, although in good health overall. I stopped driving in February and have no intention of driving again until this mess is over. Especially, since my dr thinks I have covid19. California won't test me since I'm not in need of hospitalization, obese, diabetic or with high blood pressure. No biggie since there isn't a proven therapy yet. Although, I'm told to go to hospital if I develop shortness of breath.*
> 
> 
> *Take a look at the heat map of occurrences. This was brought in at every major international airport with direct flights to Europe and Asia. Take two doses of Chloroquine and get back to work*. *Agree that airports were a large part of it. My mistake for not adding that point.*


*Thanks for reading my posts. :wink:*


----------



## 197438 (Mar 7, 2020)

Wolfgang Faust said:


> Yeah, I'm a 63 year old young guy.


OK, so you're old. But are you an epidemiologist? Seems to be a lot of them on this forum.


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

EastBayRides said:


> OK, so you're old. But are you an epidemiologist? Seems to be a lot of them on this forum.


No, I am not...and do not pretend to be an expert, unlike this moron.

She should be sued.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1226508570646269954


----------



## 197438 (Mar 7, 2020)

Wolfgang Faust said:


> No, I am not...and do not pretend to be an expert, unlike this moron.
> 
> She should be sued.
> 
> ...


Ha, that's around the same time my mayor was telling us to eat in Chinatown because their bottom line is being hurt by the panic. Now she pretends she was on top of this thing all along.


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

EastBayRides said:


> Ha, that's around the same time my mayor was telling us to eat in Chinatown because their bottom line is being hurt by the panic. Now she pretends she was on top of this thing all along.


Whoa.
Schaff is dangerous-dumb.
You're in one of the hot spots.
Stop driving.


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

EastBayRides said:


> Ha, that's around the same time my mayor was telling us to eat in Chinatown because their bottom line is being hurt by the panic. Now she pretends she was on top of this thing all along.


Exactly just like De Blasiio and Cuomo telling New Yorkers *last week *Trump is misinformed and that they should go about their normal activities. Now Both are on TV telling everyone who will listen to stay inside.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

EastBayRides said:


> OK, so you're old. But are you an epidemiologist? Seems to be a lot of them on this forum.


Are you going to join the food delivery strike?

what the experts say:

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...n#Why-calculating-the-death-rate-is-so-tricky


----------



## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


This is great news!! But are you sure Trump shut down flights from China in December? I thought LAX and a few other airports were still accepting those problematic flights later than December.

Take care of yourself. I hope you don't have the virus. If you do have it then I hope you're in the 80% with mild symptoms.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

goneubering said:


> This is great news!! But are you sure Trump shut down flights from China in December? I thought LAX and a few other airports were still accepting those problematic flights later than December.
> 
> Take care of yourself. I hope you don't have the virus. If you do have it then I hope you're in the 80% with mild symptoms.


I'd been corrected earlier in this thread. It was late January, not December for shut down of inbound flights from China. That gives us a longer window for virus spreaders coming in from China.

My cough is getting worse, but, I'm not experiencing shortness of breath. I'm hoping my dr is wrong and I just have a seasonal flu/cold. If not, I'm likely one of those with mild symptoms. I'd like to take one of those test for the antibodies down the road.

Everyone should be careful.

Edit to add: The give and take on these threads is great. We can learn from each other with civil discussion.


----------



## Lionslover (Nov 2, 2016)

Seamus said:


> People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".
> 
> I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.
> 
> ...


I hope you and your mother stay safe.im near Detroit and it's starting to climb here drastically every day.


----------



## 197438 (Mar 7, 2020)

BigRedDriver said:


> Are you going to join the food delivery strike?


That would require me to have already started delivering food. I could never figure how dealing with parking tickets can justify the piddly earnings and entitled customers. I certainly would never go as low as gathering someone else's groceries from the shelf and waiting in a checkout line. One step above scrubbing someone else's toilets.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

EastBayRides said:


> That would require me to have already started delivering food. I could never figure how dealing with parking tickets can justify the piddly earnings and entitled customers. I certainly would never go as low as gathering someone else's groceries from the shelf and waiting in a checkout line. One step above scrubbing someone else's toilets.


And you are so much better than them.


----------



## ohnos (Nov 2, 2019)

I been telling every this guys numbers were not telling the right story. Gee I was right so was Trump.


----------



## 197438 (Mar 7, 2020)

BigRedDriver said:


> And you are so much better than them.


Better than you.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

EastBayRides said:


> Better than you.


In the real world, you'd probably work for me.


----------



## 5 Stars (Jul 11, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying *millions *of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.


Get your head out of your ass. The critical point in the time-line of the epidemic curve-line is when the healthcare system gets overwhelmed. When they run out of ventilators and ICU beds, the majority of the people who need one are going to die. We are practicing social distancing and shelter-in-place policies to try and reduce the epidemic spread of the virus. If people go around willy-nilly without a care in the world saying "I'm healthy, I'll survive" they could only exasperate the situation by spreading the virus even though they are asymptomatic.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

5 Stars said:


> Get your head out of your ass. The critical point in the time-line of the epidemic curve-line is when the healthcare system gets over-run. When they run out of ventilators and ICU beds, the majority of the people who need one are going to die. We are practicing social distancing and stay-at-home policies to try and reduce the epidemic spread of the virus. If people go around willy-nilly without a care in the world saying "I'm healthy, I'll survive" only exasperate the situation by spreading the virus (asymptomatically).


Okay? How does your post address my comment about millions dying. Try reading first and responding second, thank you. And take a deep breath before you do.


----------



## dlearl476 (Oct 3, 2017)

Wolfgang Faust said:


> Democrats shoved $350 million for illegal aliens in there.


Moscow Mitch shoved $500 billion in there for their corporate overlords and the people Lord Dampnut wants to reward for kissing his ass.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/tr...ce-medical-supplies-is-un-american-socialism/


EastBayRides said:


> OK, so you're old. But are you an epidemiologist? Seems to be a lot of them on this forum.


And the crazy thing is back in January they were all constitutional scholars. :biggrin:



EastBayRides said:


> Ha, that's around the same time my mayor was telling us to eat in Chinatown because their bottom line is being hurt by the panic. Now she pretends she was on top of this thing all along.


Just like Lord Dampnut.



IR12 said:


> Exactly just like De Blasiio and Cuomo telling New Yorkers *last week *Trump is misinformed and that they should go about their normal activities. Now Both are on TV telling everyone who will listen to stay inside.


Well, that certainly explains why they cancelled the St Patrick's Day parade *two weeks* ago. :whistling:


----------



## Major League (Oct 16, 2014)

Just a little perspective on the Corona outbreak. We are currently at 20,000+ deaths for the flu this year, in the US, which includes about 130 Children. All of them suffering with pneumonia and similar effects of Corona before their demise. So yea, Covid-19 is a killer and currently about 10x deadlier than the flu but it's not even close to what happened this year with the flu.


----------



## dlearl476 (Oct 3, 2017)

Major League said:


> So yea, Covid-19 is a killer and currently about 10x deadlier than the flu but it's not even close to what happened this year with the flu.


Yet.

It remains to be seen how this plays out. Whether we look more like South Korea or more like Italy remains to be seen. Given the early missteps (more Italy than South Korea) and refusal of many to take self-quantile seriously (even less so than Italy) it doesn't look good.

And, given that the first wave in 1918 was less severe than the second and, less so, third waves, we really won't know how this plays out until summer 2021. The good news is that we have infinitely better health care than we did in 1918, as long as we can keep from overwhelming it.











NoPool4Me said:


> No new data... simply admitted an error. A huge error....


Reading is a Fundamental

_Correction: The original title of *this article incorrectly suggested that Neil Ferguson stated his initial model was wrong.* The article has been revised to make clear that he provided a downgraded projection given the new data and current mitigation steps. This article has also been updated to include Ferguson's clarifying statement posted on Twitter on Thursday._

Ferguson's initial model was based on doing nothing. It was revised in light of the UK issuing self-quarantine and closure orders. Unfortunately for the US, many aren't taking those precautions seriously.


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

5 Stars said:


> The critical point in the time-line of the epidemic curve-line is when the healthcare system gets overwhelmed. When they run out of ventilators and ICU beds, the majority of the people who need one are going to die.


This is the key point. This is why the mortality rate in Italy is so high; there are simply many, many patients who need ventilators, and no more are available. The majority of those people are simply going to die. The system here, while _already_ overwhelmed, has not yet seen the huge surge of cases which all of the predictive models are indicating is coming -- it's only a matter of time now. When that happens, the overwhelming majority of people who need a ventilator are going to be shit out of luck.

When the tsunami is still out at sea, it still appears calm on shore. It's only when it has fully arrived that you can see how much damage is going to occur.


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> This is the key point. This is why the mortality rate in Italy is so high; there are simply many, many patients who need ventilators, and no more are available. The majority of those people are simply going to die. The system here, while _already_ overwhelmed, has not yet seen the huge surge of cases which all of the predictive models are indicating is coming -- it's only a matter of time now. When that happens, the overwhelming majority of people who need a ventilator are going to be shit out of luck.
> 
> When the tsunami is still out at sea, it still appears calm on shore. It's only when it has fully arrived that you can see how much damage is going to occur.


Unfortunate but true. The risks coupled with a poorly equipped healthcare system, no way would I even consider driving or delivery.

To those out earning under current conditions remember, safety first.


----------



## dlearl476 (Oct 3, 2017)

IR12 said:


> Unfortunate but true. The risks coupled with a poorly equipped healthcare system, no way would I even consider driving or delivery.
> 
> To those out earning under current conditions, remember safety first.


 Detroit.


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

dlearl476 said:


> Detroit.
> 
> View attachment 439027


Geese! Let's hope this lottery system for Rx doesn't play out across the nation.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

IR12 said:


> Geese! Let's hope this lottery system for Rx doesn't play out across the nation.


It all depends on how hard this hits. I'm hoping the social isolation has slowed this down. Only time will tell.

But, I'm so glad I stopped driving in February.

Anyone still driving or doing delivery, be safe.


----------



## goneubering (Aug 17, 2017)

dlearl476 said:


> Detroit.
> 
> View attachment 439027


That's shocking. :frown:


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

goneubering said:


> That's shocking. :frown:


Maybe, but it's unavoidable. There simply are not enough resources, and there still won't be in a few weeks. We will be making the unbelievably hard decisions that Italian doctors have already had to face.


----------



## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


But, if you do have it, you could spread it to others, are you self quarantining?


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Oscar Levant said:


> But, if you do have it, you could spread it to others, are you self quarantining?


I've been in quarantine for the entire month of March. Not going anywhere. Been slowly stocking up on non perishable foods (canned meats, canned veggies, rice, beans, flour, yeast, etc since I first heard of this virus in January. (China's reaction to this told me we had something nasty coming.) Freezer too small to count on it for a long quarantine... that's why I started buying canned food. Quit driving end of February.


----------



## Oscar Levant (Aug 15, 2014)

NoPool4Me said:


> I've been in quarantine for the entire month of March. Not going anywhere. Been slowly stocking up on non perishable foods (canned meats, canned veggies, rice, beans, flour, yeast, etc since I first heard of this virus in January. (China's reaction to this told me we had something nasty coming.) Freezer too small to count on it for a long quarantine... that's why I started buying canned food. Quit driving end of February.


Good for you. It isn't that bad yet, in my town. But, maybe in another month or so, it might be.


----------



## Quatro40 (Jul 29, 2016)

Do you realize that 21 million active cell phone lines in China went dead between Jan 3 and March 20 of this year. Do you know what that means? CCP lied about the real numbers if infected and dead.


----------



## Fuzzyelvis (Dec 7, 2014)

EastBayRides said:


> Confirmation bias much? Since you are young and likely to survive, you should just keep driving.
> 
> 
> Take a look at the heat map of occurrences. This was brought in at every major international airport with direct flights to Europe and Asia. Take two doses of Chloroquine and get back to work.
> ...


Well a lot of drugs cause sun sensitivity.


----------



## dlearl476 (Oct 3, 2017)

Quatro40 said:


> Do you realize that 21 million active cell phone lines in China went dead between Jan 3 and March 20 of this year. Do you know what that means? CCP lied about the real numbers if infected and dead.


C2C fan, too? :laugh:

I heard Geller's interview, too. But I wonder, with 1.2 billion people, I wonder what the "normal" rate is for a three month period.

Regardless, there is very little hope of getting realistic numbers out of China. If only there was some sort of organization we could imbed in the CDC in China...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...a-prior-to-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSKBN21C3N5


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

dlearl476 said:


> Yet.
> 
> It remains to be seen how this plays out. Whether we look more like South Korea or more like Italy remains to be seen. Given the early missteps (more Italy than South Korea) and refusal of many to take self-quantile seriously (even less so than Italy) it doesn't look good.
> 
> ...


Then maybe this article might help. From the New England Journal of Medicine. It says this will likely be more like a bad influenza season.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
From the article:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

And check out one of the authors: Dr. Anthony Fauci is listed first.


----------



## 197438 (Mar 7, 2020)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> This is the key point. This is why the mortality rate in Italy is so high; there are simply many, many patients who need ventilators, and no more are available. The majority of those people are simply going to die. The system here, while _already_ overwhelmed, has not yet seen the huge surge of cases which all of the predictive models are indicating is coming -- it's only a matter of time now. When that happens, the overwhelming majority of people who need a ventilator are going to be shit out of luck.
> 
> When the tsunami is still out at sea, it still appears calm on shore. It's only when it has fully arrived that you can see how much damage is going to occur.


NY will need to hire people to operate the manual ventilators it is buying. MAGA!


----------



## dlearl476 (Oct 3, 2017)

BigRedDriver said:


> Then maybe this article might help. From the New England Journal of Medicine. It says this will likely be more like a bad influenza season.
> 
> https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387


How often does a "bad influenza season" overwhelm the healthcare system? Close borders? Activate Emergency Declarations? Trigger the Defense Procurement Act? Require hospital ships?

Hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst

ETA: The NEJM study was based on 425 patients, and it's not consistent with larger studies or studies from different locations.

"The median age of the patients was 59 years, with higher morbidity and mortality among the elderly and among those with coexisting conditions (similar to the situation with influenza); 56% of the patients were male. Of note, there were no cases in children younger than 15 years of age. Either children are less likely to become infected, which would have important epidemiologic implications, or their symptoms were so mild that their infection escaped detection, which has implications for the size of the denominator of total community infections."

Here's a study based on 44K cases.

Spectrum of illness severity - The spectrum of symptomatic infection ranges from mild to critical; most infections are not severe [33,35-40]. Specifically, in a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention that included approximately 44,500 confirmed infections with an estimation of disease severity [41]:

●Mild (no or mild pneumonia) was reported in 81 percent.

●Severe disease (eg, with dyspnea, hypoxia, or >50 percent lung involvement on imaging within 24 to 48 hours) was reported in 14 percent.

●Critical disease (eg, with respiratory failure, shock, or multiorgan dysfunction) was reported in 5 percent.

●The overall case fatality rate was 2.3 percent; no deaths were reported among noncritical cases.

According to a joint World Health Organization (WHO)-China fact-finding mission, the case-fatality rate ranged from 5.8 percent in Wuhan to 0.7 percent in the rest of China [17]. Most of the fatal cases occurred in patients with advanced age or underlying medical comorbidities [20,41]. (See 'Risk factors for severe illness' below.)

The proportion of severe or fatal infections may vary by location. As an example, in Italy, 12 percent of all detected COVID-19 cases and 16 percent of all hospitalized patients were admitted to the intensive care unit; the estimated case fatality rate was 7.2 percent in mid-March [42,43]. In contrast, the estimated case fatality rate in mid-March in South Korea was 0.9 percent [44]. This may be related to distinct demographics of infection; in Italy, the median age of patients with infection was 64 years, whereas in Korea the median age was in the 40s. (See 'Impact of age' below.)


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

EastBayRides said:


> NY will need to hire people to operate the manual ventilators it is buying. MAGA!


Maybe all the people who are insisting that this is a wildly overblown hoax will be willing to sign up for that -- after all, there's nothing to worry about, right?


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

dlearl476 said:


> How often does a "bad influenza season" overwhelm the healthcare system? Close borders? Activate Emergency Declarations? Trigger the Defense Procurement Act? Require hospital ships?
> 
> Hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst


Ask the "experts" who more and more are stating the initial numbers were way out of whack, as several of us on this board questioned from the start. But then again, we aren't experts, right?


----------



## dlearl476 (Oct 3, 2017)

BigRedDriver said:


> Ask the "experts" who more and more are stating the initial numbers were way out of whack, as several of us on this board questioned from the start. But then again, we aren't experts, right?


The intitial numbers were based on letting the virus run its course. The revised numbers are based on self-quarantine, aggressive testing, and available healthcare. After the fact, the reality will probably lie somewhere in between.


----------



## BigRedDriver (Nov 28, 2018)

dlearl476 said:


> The intitial numbers were based on letting the virus run its course. The revised numbers are based on self-quarantine, aggressive testing, and available healthcare. After the fact, the reality will probably lie somewhere in between.


We had this discussion at the very beginning. We always do something. The initial numbers were overblown. The press only reported worst case when all modeling is done in best case, moderate and worst case.

Some of us knew this and were insulted for posting rationally.

Should people be cautious? Never said they shouldn't. But was this rational, we won't know until it's over.


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

Quatro40 said:


> Do you realize that 21 million active cell phone lines in China went dead between Jan 3 and March 20 of this year. Do you know what that means? CCP lied about the real numbers if infected and dead.


There are no reasons to put any faith in any numbers that come from the Chinese government regarding COVID-19. But I have read other possible explanations for the sharp decline in cell phones besides millions upon millions of dead -- which, it would be very, very hard to cover up, even for the Chinese government, without the outside world seeing some evidence of it.

For example, it is very possible that many migrant workers in cities got spooked by the outbreak and the quarantines of large cities and simply cut out and returned home or to the countryside, abandoning their cellphones in the process -- they wouldn't need them and weren't going to pay for them any longer if they aren't in the city.

I have no difficulty believing that hundreds of thousands might have died there and it's being covered up, but it is not likely that its tens of millions. But we're probably not going to know for a very long time, if ever.


----------



## Uberdrivernj12 (Jan 29, 2020)

What do people think of this video?


----------



## Don'tchasethesurge (Dec 27, 2016)

https://news.yahoo.com/fauci-says-coronavirus-deaths-us-141103516.html?soc_src=hl-viewer&soc_trk=tw
Dr. Fauci was on cnn this morning. Possible projection on deaths.


----------



## Uberdrivernj12 (Jan 29, 2020)

can people please tell me what they think of this video???


----------



## dlearl476 (Oct 3, 2017)

Uberdrivernj12 said:


> What do people think of this video?


I think I miss NYC and my thoughts and prayers are with the millions of people there.


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

Uberdrivernj12 said:


> What do people think of this video?


Frightening... eerie.
My Mom was born in Yonkers, I have NY state blood going back to the 1700s...have many cousins there.


----------



## Uberdrivernj12 (Jan 29, 2020)

Wolfgang Faust said:


> Frightening... eerie.
> My Mom was born in Yonkers, I have NY state blood going back to the 1700s...have many cousins there.


What about this 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244217833103544320


Quatro40 said:


> Do you realize that 21 million active cell phone lines in China went dead between Jan 3 and March 20 of this year. Do you know what that means? CCP lied about the real numbers if infected and dead.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244272038212182016


Uberdrivernj12 said:


> What about this
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244217833103544320
> 
> ...


Is this really happening?


----------



## Wolfgang Faust (Aug 2, 2018)

Uberdrivernj12 said:


> What about this
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244217833103544320
> 
> ...


I don't know Berlin.
Will send to a friend in Munich to see what she says.


----------



## Uberdrivernj12 (Jan 29, 2020)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244272038212182016

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1243894096252547075


----------



## 2win (Jun 29, 2019)

Sorry you can't pull off a conspiracy this big. Too many scientists involved. If you think it's a conspiracy then I think you have been sheltering your perspective in place for a long time.



Uberdrivernj12 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1243894096252547075


Unfortunately you should change Africa to America


----------



## Uberdrivernj12 (Jan 29, 2020)

2win said:


> Sorry you can't pull off a conspiracy this big. Too many scientists involved. If you think it's a conspiracy then I think you have been sheltering your perspective in place for a long time.
> 
> 
> Unfortunately you should change Africa to America


I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I'm also not completely trust worthy of politician and over paid newscasters. I'm just trying to see all the perspectives, coronavirus is real, so is TB and Polio and pneumonia, all very contagious, I just don't want to look back 10 years from now and say what the hell did we let them do to our freedoms?


----------



## JohnnyBravo836 (Dec 5, 2018)

Uberdrivernj12 said:


> What about this
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244217833103544320
> 
> ...


No, what David Icke says is happening is not really happening. David Icke is the demented nut job who says the world is being run by shapeshifting alien reptile Illluminati . . .

I'm sure that this has already been explained to you by your physician, but in order for your anti-psychotic medication to be effective, you must take the prescribed dose regularly. Do not skip doses; rest in bed; don't listen to the voices inside your head.


----------



## Uberdrivernj12 (Jan 29, 2020)

JohnnyBravo836 said:


> No, what David Icke says is happening is not really happening. David Icke is the demented nut job who says the world is being run by shapeshifting alien reptile Illluminati . . .
> 
> I'm sure that this has already been explained to you by your physician, but in order for your anti-psychotic medication to be effective, you must take the prescribed dose regularly. Do not skip doses; rest in bed; don't listen to the voices inside your head.


Well Mr Jonny Bravo, Cartoon Network &#128102;. What can I say? There a lot of but jobs out there, some right next to you.



JohnnyBravo836 said:


> No, what David Icke says is happening is not really happening. David Icke is the demented nut job who says the world is being run by shapeshifting alien reptile Illluminati . . .
> 
> I'm sure that this has already been explained to you by your physician, but in order for your anti-psychotic medication to be effective, you must take the prescribed dose regularly. Do not skip doses; rest in bed; don't listen to the voices inside your head.


Have you seen this video? I'm just trying to make sense of it all. What's with this guy?


----------



## Bartolovski (Nov 22, 2016)

Uberdrivernj12 said:


> What about this
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244217833103544320
> 
> ...


Thank you for quoting from a very reliable twitter account who thinks the world is flat and has a second account for betting "systems"


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Uberdrivernj12 said:


> What about this
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244217833103544320
> 
> Is this really happening?


If this is really happening, odds are high that it's simply an overflow hospital in preparation for if/when it's needed. Germans are well organized and have more hospitals than most in the EU.


----------



## Big Lou (Dec 11, 2019)

Seamus said:


> People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".
> 
> I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.
> 
> ...


Thank you Seamus...
I cannot agree with you more on your modeling assessment. Those timelines are assumption based on today's data and it's important to note what data they use to formulate their assessments. I don't care if it's 100,000 or 500,000 projected dead, till we peak, it's all assumptions. Until then, use those projections based on facts and science should be taken seriously and act accordingly.

Be strong and take of your family.


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying *millions *of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.


That was posted almost to the hour 3 days ago. 3 days later - 1,000 becomes 2,500.

That's a 250% increase in 3 days. You're right, it's nowhere near as bad as it could have been. It could have been 300%

What will the current 2,500 be in 3 short days?

.


----------



## Driver100 (Aug 1, 2015)

The United States government passed a $9 billion, then $100 billion, then a $2.2 trillion dollar spending bill- no one had time to read the bills; this power/money grab may be the untold story behind the "cover" stories. Add this to a $23.5 trillion national debt.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

Driver100 said:


> The United States government passed a $9 billion, then $100 billion, then a $2.2 trillion dollar spending bill- no one had time to read the bills; this power/money grab may be the untold story behind the "cover" stories. Add this to a $23.5 trillion national debt.


It's sickening how both parties filled the bill with pork. And, most voting on it couldn't possibly have read all those changes. Massie was correct to try to force them all to vote in person. This is a huge bill that didn't have enough discussion and included to much that had zero to do with the covid pandemic.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adaman...n-the-coronavirus-stimulus-bill/#4f93f24760ae
https://www.openthebooks.com/assets...tions_Committee_--_Supplemental_Phase_III.pdf
For example, how is the National Endowments for the Arts and Humanities related to helping anything covid situation?


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Who is John Galt? said:


> That was posted almost to the hour 3 days ago. 3 days later - 1,000 becomes 2,500.
> 
> That's a 250% increase in 3 days. You're right, it's nowhere near as bad as it could have been. It could have been 300%
> 
> ...


What about 3 long days? Will the tally be more?

The doomers have been telling us the numbers double every three days until the end of time. So, are you predicting 7500 US deaths by Thursday? Will you be upset if that number is only 6000 or so?


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> What about 3 long days? Will the tally be more?
> 
> The doomers have been telling us the numbers double every three days until the end of time. So, are you predicting 7500 US deaths by Thursday? Will you be upset if that number is only 6000 or so?


3 long days - No.

But I think for the deniers it would be 3 long daze.

.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Who is John Galt? said:


> 3 long days - No.
> 
> But I think for the deniers it would be 3 long daze.
> 
> .


You should be pretty happy, we're up to almost 3200 deaths in the US. With any luck, there will be a big outbreak somewhere and you'll get yourself closer to 4,500 by mid-week!


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> You should be pretty happy, we're up to almost 3200 deaths in the US. With any luck, there will be a big outbreak somewhere and you'll get yourself closer to 4,500 by mid-week!


You can't argue with math.

No that is wrong - you probably can. 

.


----------



## IR12 (Nov 11, 2017)

NoPool4Me said:


> It's sickening how both parties filled the bill with pork. And, most voting on it couldn't possibly have read all those changes. Massie was correct to try to force them all to vote in person. This is a huge bill that didn't have enough discussion and included to much that had zero to do with the covid pandemic.
> 
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/adaman...n-the-coronavirus-stimulus-bill/#4f93f24760ae
> https://www.openthebooks.com/assets...tions_Committee_--_Supplemental_Phase_III.pdf
> ...


Instead of grandstanding and finger pointing, the bill should have been passed only after ALL discussions were broadcast on live TV instead of all the back room huddling to fund pet projects.

Trash needs to be taken out on BOTH sides of the aisle.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

IR12 said:


> Instead of grandstanding and finger pointing, the bill should have been passed only after ALL discussions were broadcast on live TV instead of all the back room huddling to fund pet projects.
> 
> Trash needs to be taken out on BOTH sides of the aisle.


I think I'm going to contact Massie headquarters and volunteer to do phone work. I live too far from him to help in other ways... unless, fund raising somehow. He seems to be the only one worth voting back in.


----------



## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

BigRedDriver said:


> Over and over we have to read about how we are just hayseeds, Hicks, ******** because we live in less densely populated areas.
> 
> We visit New York and other high density areas and it's no wonder to us why pandemics cause such havoc. The lifestyle in New York is custom made for it, and yet, so unprepared when it happens?
> 
> Let's see, will the cities that are so adversely affected, empty out? Kinda doubt it. Oh well.


Most large cities NY, SF, are freaking rat infested dirty places packed full of people who do not heed warnings and that is why we will have so many deaths.


----------



## REX HAVOC (Jul 4, 2016)

NoPool4Me said:


> https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid..._gtcEb9CmgGgrmLfJqfoLaTUrrBlOcTCg8u2BNCRpJKmc
> Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. *The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak*. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
> 
> Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.


We are three months in this thing and we already have more than 50% more people infected with the virus than italy and 1/4th as many deaths. As the virus progresses we should see that dramatically rise.


----------



## NoPool4Me (Apr 16, 2018)

REX HAVOC said:


> We are three months in this thing and we already have more than 50% more people infected with the virus than italy and 1/4th as many deaths. As the virus progresses we should see that dramatically rise.


That comparison is difficult to make. The population of the US is far greater than Italy for starters. Population density per square mile is greater in Italy. The denser the population, I suspect the easier to catch Covid19.

Population in US 327,352,000 vs Italy 60,359,546
Population in NYC, NY, US 8.5 million vs Rome, Italy 2.7 million
Lifespan shorter in US 78.54 vs 83.4

Covid19 hits people harder, the older they are. Even then, it depends on underlying health of the individual.

Here's a great site to show the differences between Italy and the US. https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/italy/usa?sc=XE92

Here's one to show difference between NYC USA vs Rome Italy
https://versus.com/en/new-york-vs-rome
But, yes, we will likely see the deaths rise dramatically from where they are now. It may be quite different on a percentage of population basis. The tough part is that it's very difficult to predict. I'm hoping it calms down for the entire world soon.

I'm hopeful we won't be hit as hard as they were. Although, NYC and New Orleans are having tough times. Scary thing happening to everyone around the globe.

On another note, in looking at India withholding Tylenol and China threatening withholding generics from us shows we need to get all critical supplies such as drugs and electronics all manufactured in the US again. Anything related to national security. Especially, since China wants IP for any product made there. We've been insane to move so much of our tech to be manufactured overseas. Idiocy.

This is the worst part of not working daily. I can sit up late and read sites like this. It's great for exchange of ideas or simple venting... not good for sleep.

Good night or good moring... whatever phase you are in wherever. :wink:


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Yesterday's (March 31st) increase in new confirmed cases is extraordinarily worrying in the sheer increases that are beginning to become the new normal.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

I cannot get my arms around 100,000 deaths (at a minimum, apparently) when we are at 4,000. Who are these people? Are some of them perfectly healthy as we speak? Are the majority of them over 80? Are they victims of bad luck? Poor life choices? 96,000 people alive now, dead by...June?


----------



## Irishjohn831 (Aug 11, 2017)

I knew it, I told them to look at my models molecular structure of the anotomical micro chasm and such in order to eradicate the cellular monochromycysts chain of enzymes where they drastically and obtusley underestimated the glandular osteoclasts


----------



## 2win (Jun 29, 2019)

Looks like the good ol USA today will fly past Italy’s record for deaths in one day. Flu huh... Wake up to any dingbat who thinks this compares to the flu. The nation is shutdown and this thing is slaughtering citizens. It ain’t just old and sick people either. Please if you aren’t essential, stay home. You can save a life sitting on your couch. Hero at home.


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> I cannot get my arms around 100,000 deaths (at a minimum, apparently) when we are at 4,000. Who are these people? Are some of them perfectly healthy as we speak? Are the majority of them over 80? Are they victims of bad luck? Poor life choices? 96,000 people alive now, dead by...June?


One thing you can be assured, unlike many here, they and their loved ones will not think it is an over-hyped hoax, or the flu 'just a bit more serious'.

.

.


----------



## AllenChicago (Nov 19, 2015)

Looks like 88% of Italy's CoronaVirus deaths should not have been classified as such.

From the Italy National Institute of Health:

""On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three," he says.""

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/


----------



## Mole (Mar 9, 2017)

REX HAVOC said:


> We are three months in this thing and we already have more than 50% more people infected with the virus than italy and 1/4th as many deaths. As the virus progresses we should see that dramatically rise.


Only 15 more months to go.


----------



## Don'tchasethesurge (Dec 27, 2016)

AllenChicago said:


> Looks like 88% of Italy's CoronaVirus deaths should not have been classified as such.
> 
> From the Italy National Institute of Health:
> 
> ...


That is not exactly what the article says. We already knew that this virus will get you if you have underlying conditions. Nothing new.

Just like the paragraph after the one posted states. So yes people who have underlying are more vulnerable and covid-19 will contribute to their death.

"This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death, rather it demonstrates that Italy's fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions. Experts have also warned against making direct comparisons between countries due to discrepancies in testing"


----------



## Trafficat (Dec 19, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> I cannot get my arms around 100,000 deaths (at a minimum, apparently) when we are at 4,000. Who are these people? Are some of them perfectly healthy as we speak? Are the majority of them over 80? Are they victims of bad luck? Poor life choices? 96,000 people alive now, dead by...June?


Most of them are suffering various ailments before Coronavirus. The majority are over 80. They are not victims of bad luck as much as they are victims of old age, degenerating bodies, accumulation of diseases, progressive organ failure, etc. Coronavirus will kill many people by June. Many of them would have died soon anyway. Everybody dies eventually. The Coronavirus will be the final straw for many.

In Italy 99% of the dead were over 60, with an average age of 81.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...talians-who-have-died-from-coronavirus-is-81/


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Who is John Galt? said:


> One thing you can be assured, unlike many here, they and their loved ones will not think it is an over-hyped hoax, or the flu 'just a bit more serious'.


Do you get an erection from repeating this a few times a day? I'm not sure what the point is, then again, I don't profess to understand what gets the average rideshare driver off.


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> then again, I don't profess to understand what gets the average rideshare driver off.


Obviously, there are many things you don't understand.

.


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Who is John Galt? said:


> Obviously, there are many things you don't understand.
> 
> .


Yes, your sexual attraction to catastrophe is certainly one.

As the kids say, You do You.


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

Valar Dohaeris said:


> Yes, your sexual attraction to catastrophe is certainly one.
> 
> As the kids say, You do You.


And you enjoy your blinkers.

.


----------



## Timinftl (Sep 7, 2019)

BigRedDriver said:


> It concerns me that, given the numbers that seemed apparent from the start to be highly overstated, why?
> 
> I think we can all look at the recent stimulus bill and start to see the reasons.
> 
> ...


----------



## Valar Dohaeris (May 25, 2019)

Who is John Galt? said:


> And you enjoy your blinkers.
> 
> .


What blinkers exactly?


----------



## bregalad5 (Mar 5, 2020)

Who is John Galt? said:


> That was posted almost to the hour 3 days ago. 3 days later - 1,000 becomes 2,500.
> 
> That's a 250% increase in 3 days. You're right, it's nowhere near as bad as it could have been. It could have been 300%
> 
> ...


2 days, 9 hours later we're sitting at 4,132 deaths.


----------



## tcaud (Jul 28, 2017)

1.5 million US deaths. Same statistical outcomes as Italy but 5.5x the scale. UK will end up same as Italy. This is actually a very deadly virus... a .7% death rate has been reported... that takes hospitalization into account. Without it....

It's also impossible to say who will die from the disease and who won't. This virus is putting our technological limitations and knowledge gaps on full display.

Beware arrogant people... they are the primary spreaders. They will force themselves to work in service to their ego, whether out of belief in social Darwinism or religious obligation, and hide their symptoms. Avoid them at all cost. Hopefully you've got money stashed away somewhere. It's never a great time to be homeless, but better now than others if you can't pay rent. Consider moving back in with the folks if that's an option.


----------



## Who is John Galt? (Sep 28, 2016)

bregalad5 said:


> 2 days, 9 hours later we're sitting at 4,132 deaths.


Thanks for the update, keep me posted. :smiles:

.


----------

